In short
Podcast Summary: The Information's TITV Episode - Oct 10, 2025
Episode Overview Host: Akash Pasricha Guests:
- Zig Serafin (CEO of Qualtrics)
- Misha Laskin (CEO of Reflection AI)
- Aaron Dignan (Founder of Plumb)
- Ann Gehan (Reporter)
- Michael Duda (Investor)
Key Topics Discussed
- Qualtrics Acquisition of Press Ganey Forsta
- Qualtrics acquired Press Ganey Forsta for $6.75 billion.
- Zig Serafin explained the strategic rationale behind the acquisition:
- Enhancing Qualtrics' ability to help companies gather feedback effectively, particularly in healthcare.
- Leveraging Press Ganey's expertise in predictive analytics and healthcare outcomes.
- The acquisition is not merely about expanding the customer base but about integrating valuable technology and expertise.
- Reflection AI's $2 Billion Funding
- Misha Laskin discussed Reflection AI's recent funding round led by NVIDIA with a total of $2 billion at an $8 billion valuation.
- The company's vision is to create open model intelligence akin to DeepSeek, focusing on large enterprises needing customizable AI solutions.
- Discussion on the advantages of open-source models regarding control, customizability, and ownership.
- E-commerce Sector Revival
- Insights from Ann Gehan and Michael Duda on the revival of the e-commerce sector post-pandemic:
- The shift away from solely DTC (Direct to Consumer) models to a more integrated approach involving traditional retail and e-commerce.
- New startups focusing on smaller, consumable products are gaining traction, contrasting with the larger ticket items from earlier years.
- Companies are now adopting omnichannel strategies and better understanding consumer journeys.
- Winding Down of Plumb
- Aaron Dignan shared his experience of shutting down his AI startup, Plumb, after five years:
- Reflections on the challenges faced, particularly around building a sustainable business model.
- Emphasis on the importance of learning from failures and the supportive entrepreneurial community.
- Stablecoin Market Developments
- Discussion with Yueqi Yang on how recent legislation, the Genius Act, has influenced the stablecoin market:
- Rise of new competitors aiming to capture market share from established players like Tether and Circle.
- Insights into the challenges of profitability and sustainability in the stablecoin issuance landscape.
Key Takeaways
- Qualtrics' Acquisition: A strategic move to integrate technology and expand capabilities in healthcare feedback systems.
- Reflection AI's Funding: Demonstrates the growing demand for customizable AI solutions and the competitive landscape among AI startups.
- E-commerce Evolution: A potential shift back to traditional retail dynamics, blending online and offline strategies to enhance consumer engagement.
- Startup Challenges: The importance of recognizing when to pivot or wind down operations, with a supportive community encouraging transparency around failures.
- Stablecoin Landscape: Increasing competition among startups as new regulations open the market, but long-term profitability remains uncertain.
Conclusion The podcast episode provided a comprehensive overview of significant developments in tech, including mergers, funding rounds, shifts in consumer behavior, and the evolving landscape of startups. The discussions highlighted both the opportunities and challenges present in today's market, offering valuable insights into the future of technology and business.
Next Episode: Tune in on Monday at 10 AM PT / 1 PM ET for more tech news and insights!
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:13Welcome, everyone, to the Informations TI TV. My name is Akash Pasricha. It is Friday, October 10th. We have got a jam-packed show for you today. We are bringing on the CEO of Qualtrics, the CEO of Reflection AI. Both those companies have made big news this week with acquisitions and with funding rounds. We're also going to talk about the profitability of stablecoin businesses and a quiet revival in the e-commerce sector. And finally, we are bringing on the founder of an AI startup who has decided to wind down his operations for what I know is going to be a great conversation about his reflections on the current startup landscape.
0:51Qualtrics made a big acquisition this week, buying Press Ganey Forsta for$6.75 billion. These aren't two names that we've talked about too much on this show just yet, but Qualtrics is a software giant that helps companies collect feedback from their customers and their employees. And Press Ganey Forsta helps healthcare companies collect similar feedback from doctors and for patients. I want to bring on Zig Serafin, the CEO of Qualtrics, to talk more about this deal. Zig, welcome to TITV. It's great to have you. Nice to be here, Akash, and you have a nice jam-packed show today. So thanks for having me.
1:24Nice to be here. Well, we are happy to have you leading us off here and starting us off strong. Look, I want to talk about this deal. It's one of the biggest deals in the software market that we've seen as of the past few weeks. Why did you do it? Well, I think in understanding it more clearly, I think it's important just to give you some background context. We're a critical, cutting-edge partner to market leaders, especially some of the best of brands and companies that are leading with experience. The ones that are focused on their customers or employees, or if you step back and say, okay, what's powering that brand technology-wise and how they connect with their customers?
2:04It's often it's Qualtrics that's there in the middle. And we have significant impact on how we help companies get closer to their customers. And over the last year, we have seen an extraordinary level of adoption in the AI capabilities that we put into our product suites. Since the launch, we've had more than a third of our customers. So, oh gosh, more than a third of 17 ,000 customers we have around the world have adopted capabilities under the market around AI. About 90 % of our top 50 customers have adopted. And so what we found and what we've learned is when you have AI that is purpose-built for the people that it's designed to serve, it delivers better experiences.
2:50It actually drives greater business impact. It drives real returns on the investment that they're making. And what we're finding is people want business that's, you know, ultimately want technology that's backed by focusing on the expertise within that industry and understanding the domain specific things that they're trying to do. So this clearly demonstrates the opportunity that we saw in making the$6.7 billion investment. Right. So I want to talk about sort of the strategy here. Press Guinea Forrester, I mean, this is a company that has really centered itself around healthcare and learning from doctors and patients that are in the many healthcare companies that it serves.
3:27From your end, was this an acquisition that you made to acquire the customer base and sort of expand into healthcare more broadly? Was this a deal that gave you technology that you didn't have? What exactly was the strategic logic here behind the acquisition? Yeah, I mean, first off, PG Forsta is very credible and has a wonderful track record in healthcare. They've also expanded into other areas and have been enabling market research capabilities as well. But in healthcare, they've got decades of experience in understanding how to drive predictive and analytics, being able to provide expertise to healthcare organizations to drive better healthcare outcomes for patients and how providers serve patients.
4:17And for several years now, we've had customers in the healthcare community that have come to us and said, why don't you actually put the best of the best together in Qualtrics proven technology and AI platform more recently and combine that if there were a way with the expertise, predictive analytics that Preskini has had in the healthcare space. And so at the end of the day, the focus is on outcomes, you know, purpose built for their industry, for their customers, for their employees, ultimately makes a lot of sense for what we're trying to enable in the market. And it's been driven by what customers have been asking for us.
4:56So from what I'm hearing, it was more for the products and not so much the customer base. So it wasn't so much of a, hey, you know, we want to gain market share in the healthcare segment. It was that they have products that we needed. expertise, predictive analytics, data that when you put it together with Qualtrics actually helps to create a one plus one plus, you know, equals five equation for customers. Right. It was a big deal. It was a$6.7 billion deal. Qualtrics, of course, went private a couple years ago for, I think it was just north of$12 billion was the takeout valuation. What was the multiple on this deal?
5:36You know, I'll let our finance guys speak to that, But we felt like it's a very healthy acquisition that makes sense. And I think a lot of it has to do with just the right next way in which we can actually provide value to the marketplace. And I do want to talk to you about Qualtrics has had a really fascinating history, right? It was once a public company. It's gone through many different ownership structures. But you are a private company now with Silver Lake and with CPPIB. I wonder, you know, what is it that you've been able to do perhaps as a private company over the past two years that you may not have been able to do as a public company?
6:15And how has being owned by private equity firms, how has that sort of changed the way in which you've been able to operate? Well, I think first off, just the mission of this company. I've been with Qualtrics for nine years, left after Microsoft, being at Microsoft for almost 18 years. And, you know, we're a very mission-purpose-led company. Our focus is around helping to heighten or elevate the human experience by partnering with organizations around the world to help them understand how to better support and care for their own customers in a more proactive and personal way. And every chapter of this company, we filed to go public, we were acquired by SAP.
6:53We then went public after that within SAP, and then we went private. Every single one of those milestones, which, by the way, Akash, as you know, is an extraordinary story. You don't see that typically. has been guided by people who are all in on that purpose and that mission in the organization. So when Silver Lake and the investment groups came to want to partner with us, the goal was to go and create an extraordinary company that actually helps to enable more organizations to innovate around experiences, to get closer to their customers in real time, to build an AI platform that helps to be able to innovate on these relationships and these partnerships that we have.
7:34So since we went private, we've actually been able to double down, we've become more effective, we've been able to scale on a global level, and it's actually given us the opportunity to make these types of investments such as the one that we just announced. And so what sort of changes have those been? Because we sort of know the private equity playbook traditionally has been to make companies more efficient, reduce costs, optimize headcount, as they say. So what has been happening at Qualtrics as a private company that has enabled it to make this acquisition financially? All of it's been on a focus on a customer.
8:08So speed in which we actually are able to operate the company on a global level, to connect with customers, making sure that the cash flow of the company is dedicated to what we're doing in R &D, advancing some of the core, core investments for making in AI. You know, one of the unique things about Silver Lake Partners and the other investors, BDT, MSD, the board of directors, CPPIB, who are also investors in the company, is they're playing the long game. They, you know, they take pride of ownership in building a company that will be a legacy to live on for long term. And they built, you know, they had amazing investments over the years.
8:47You know, example, Dell VMware, I work with Broadcom, you know, and more recently, some of the other investments have been talked about in the marketplace. So we have a group of partners who have, you know, sincere interest in building an amazing company that actually provides a lot of value to the marketplace. And especially at a time where, you know, you know, the market's changing, technology is going to change. And we're seeing software companies. I mean, AI has certainly, you know, it's certainly changing the game for software companies. And I'm excited to see how it's changing, how you operate Qualtrics in the marketplace.
9:21Thank you so much, Zig, for coming on and talking about this big acquisition you've done. I'm excited to see how it evolves. And we'll have to have you back again to talk more about how you're pushing even further into the healthcare market. That is Zig Serafin, the CEO of Qualtrics. Okay. Well, a few months ago, the information reported that Reflection AI was in talks to do a major funding round. And this week, the company announced that it has raised$2 billion at an$8 billion valuation. The company is backed by a number of big names, including NVIDIA, Lightspeed, and Sequoia. I want to bring on Misha Laskin, the CEO of the company, to talk more about what he has in store for Reflection AI.
10:00Misha, welcome to the show. It's great to have you. Hi, Kosh. Thanks for having me. Well, it's an exciting week for you. There are some really big numbers that are sort of coming to light about Reflection. I do want to talk about the business model broadly. So you sort of positioned Reflection AI to be the DeepSeek of the U.S. What is the vision for the company? Let's start there. Well, it's a great question. I mean, I think that what happened with DeepSeek in December of 2024 when it was launched is that it was a massive wake-up call for us in the U.S. in the ability to produce frontier open models and export them to the rest of the world.
10:42So we are building the frontier open model intelligence that will punch with the best of them, and it will be the kind of model that both the states and the world externally can build on top of for their intelligence needs. Now, from a commercial perspective, the kinds of customers that gravitate most towards this are the ones who have the largest AI workloads. And so this would be large enterprise customers or large startups that are consuming a lot of intelligence and want to own some of their own destiny and post-training their own models. That's kind of the commercial territory where we operate.
11:17And so, Misha, is the idea here that open source models are cheaper to use? I mean, what is the advantage there financially? I think the advantage is that once you become a big consumer of intelligence and you're a large enterprise, You want to own your intelligence. You want to run it on your infrastructure. You want to have access to the weights, so you can customize it for various applications. So you want control over your intelligence to drive both higher performance on tasks where it might not be working as well for you or drive down costs where things are working, but you want them to be more performance.
11:49So it's really about control, customizability, and full ownership of the model. So it's not about it being cheaper then. I mean, the whole idea with DeepSeek that came up was the idea that, oh, they might not have had to use as much compute, but then there were some more findings that, hey, well, maybe that wasn't really true. And the question really I'm trying to get at is a big problem for application layer companies, for example, or enterprise software companies that are using AI is that the models are expensive to use, right? And so we've talked about this, the cost of the models hasn't seemed to come down the way people thought.
12:24And my thought was maybe open source AI could be the solution to that. Yes. So you're definitely right that it is about cost performance. It's about when you have control over the model, then you're able to customize it for various tasks. And so there is a cost performance argument for maybe you're able to train the model more efficiently. And like DeepSeq, it's more cost performance out of the box. That's one thing. But the other part is you being able to take that model and customize it for your various workloads. And that enables it to be more cost performance as well. And so on top of that, then there's ownership and security and compliance and all these other things that enterprises care about.
13:03In addition, that make it the default way in which they want to consume intelligence. Right. Why couldn't you have built this at a Meta, for example? You were previously at Google. Meta is working on their own open source models. Why not go to a company like Meta? Maybe Mark Zuckerberg called you up and said, hey, just build what you're building here. I mean, can you ever think about that? Well, it's a really good question, Akash. And I think the fundamental thing here is that you need to be in a position where the commercial incentives are aligned with the research incentives of staying open.
13:38Without such a thing, when they're misaligned, then you're in a tail-wagging dog situation where there's nothing about being an open company that actually correlates with your commercial objectives. And so what I think has happened with previous iteration of companies is that they've had different commercial objectives than what's required to build out an open intelligence company. And so the reason to do this in a standalone is that to have those two things be entirely aligned so that you can continue seeing your mission through and being an open model company rather than starting off as an open model company and then having to pull the rug at some point because your product is taking you in a different direction.
14:17I want to talk about the fundraising round that you just did. NVIDIA was a big part of it. Who was the lead investor for this funding round? So obviously, NVIDIA played a very big role. We've had a number of major investors come in. Disruptive played a big role. DSC did, 1789, D Capital. Our existing investors, Lightspeed, Sequoia, CRV. So we've had a number of investors support us in the mission here. It was obviously a large round. I just want to understand because lead investor conceivably means they put in the most money and it's been reported that NVIDIA put$800 million into the round $800 out of$2 billion is a pretty big chunk so does that imply that one of those other investors put in more money than NVIDIA?
15:06It's not so much about other investors putting in more money it's more around in order for a round like this to materialize you have to have multiple points of support, right? It's not just all coming from one place. And several investors came in there in a big way. Okay, but there was no lead. No lead investor. Well, as I said, a number of investors came in there in a big way. Last question I do, I just want to talk about sort of the chip element to building these models. NVIDIA, of course, is a company that everyone relies on. And as you develop your models, are you only using NVIDIA's chips?
15:47Are you using AMD's chips as well? What does your sort of portfolio of compute look like? So, you know, we are going to be using the best chips on the market. And right for, you know, the cluster we're setting up now, the best chips on the market that are going to be coming out, right, are the next generation of black holes that are coming from NVIDIA. So we are working closely with NVIDIA. We will be partnering with them on getting the compute required for us to do our large-scale training runs. But fundamentally, what this company is, is building a thriving AI ecosystem and working with the best chips to do so.
16:28Right. Great. Well, thank you, Misha, for coming on the show. It is an exciting week for you, and I trust you are going to find some time at least to rest this weekend. We appreciate you coming on. That is Misha Laskin, the CEO of Reflection AI here on TITV. Okay, it's been just over two months since the passage of a new stablecoin law called the Genius Act, and it's already having a big impact on crypto markets, giving rise to new competitors looking to seize control from stablecoin giants Tether and Circle. I want to bring on Yueqi Yang, our crypto reporter who published some great reporting on the topic this week.
17:04Yueqi, welcome to the show. It's great to have you back. Hey, Akash. Thanks for having me. So let's talk about stablecoins. The Genius Act. So look, it was passed, okay? That was a couple months ago. There was a big song and dance about it. And the message was, I mean, the floodgates are going to open for startups, companies being able to dive deeper into stablecoins. What have we seen over the past few months to that respect? Yeah, so we immediately saw a lot more companies launching stablecoins. I would say that the first movers are definitely crypto companies. And these are crypto exchanges, wallets, and even blockchains that are launching their own stablecoins.
17:45And the reason for that is that they already have a lot of users that are currently using stablecoins like Tether and Circle. So they are highly motivated to reduce their own dependency on outside stablecoins. And they can do so by launching their own so that they themselves or their users can benefit from the revenue generated from the reserve assets from stablecoins. And who are some of the major companies that have started to wade deeper into the stablecoin space over the past few months, whether it be issuing them or, you know, even starting to talk about supporting the ecosystem? Sure. So the new players, I would say, include Stripe, which is issuing stablecoins for other companies using Bridge, a startup that they acquired this year for$1.1 billion.
18:40And Anchorage is another player that's making moves in the market. They are the only crypto company with a national trust charter at the moment. And they most notably got a partnership with Tether to issue the new stablecoin for Tether in the U.S. market. And I think one thing that's different for this new generation of players is that they are in the business of what they call stablecoin issuance as a service. So Stripe is not launching its own stablecoin. It is launching stablecoins on behalf of their clients. And they make it very easy and quick for other companies to do so. And they only charge a small fee for doing that.
19:21And what about the companies that the stablecoin as a service company is a very interesting category of startups. What about the companies, I guess, their customers? Who are the people that are the companies that are issuing the coins themselves? So StripesBridge is launching stable coins for a few crypto companies, and that includes crypto wallets, Metamask, and Fanton. Both are very highly popular crypto wallets that have a lot of users. And they're also launching stable coins for Native Markets, which is a partner for Hyperliquid. which is currently the fastest growing perpetual exchange. And they also have a lot of users that could potentially use these new stable coins.
20:06And so all these companies that have their own stable coins now, do they not pose competition to one another? Yes, they do. And that's what we expect. But all the new launches are still very early. A lot of them are in the tens of millions of dollars of market cap right now. So that's quite small at the moment, comparing to Tether and Circle's stablecoins. So we'll need to see how quickly they can gain ground. And for all these companies that are deciding that they want to issue stablecoins, how profitable is the business of issuing stablecoins? Because I know companies like Circle, for example, have a very big partnership with Coinbase where you have to pay for distribution, essentially, of these stablecoins.
20:53Is this a challenge that these newer companies are starting to sort of realize as they move into the space? Yes, it is not a problem for them at the moment. And I think that naturally raises the question how sustainable the business model is. If you consider it only as a standalone service, and obviously Strive and Anchorage, they could make money through other add-on services that they provide for their clients when they issue their stable coins. But what we see is that the stablecoin market is quickly becoming a commodity business with very low margin. Stripe says it will pass along all the revenue from the stablecoin business to their partners, minus a very small fee of 50 basis points.
21:40And we also saw the same trend with Spicco, which is issuing the stablecoin for the Trump family's World Liberty project. and their financial record showed that they made about 15.7 million revenue in the first half of this year from this service, but they paid out the majority of them,$15.2 million to their partner. And so last question for you, Aichi, if it's not a profitable operation, why do it? Well, it is a risk at the moment. And I think the priority for these companies is to gain market share first and then figure out how they can make money from it later. And a lot of these startups are funded by VC money.
22:23So they do have quite a lot of cash to cover that. I mean, I more just think about sort of the long-term profitability prospects of this business and how reliant they are on the exchanges to sort of facilitate the transactions here. It's kind of interesting to think about if they could become profitable in the long run, because so far it feels like we haven't quite decided on the business model. that actually works. Anyway, Yuechi, thanks so much for coming on the show. We really appreciate it. I encourage everyone to read that story that we published this week. I'm sure there's more news to come, so we look forward to having you on again.
23:03That is Yuechi Yang, our crypto reporter here at The Information. On this show, we talk a lot about the companies that are really thriving, but the reality of startups, of course, is that they are really hard, and not every company pans out the way founders initially expected they would. And so today, we're bringing on one founder who had to make the difficult decision to wind down operations at his company. Aaron Dignan co-founded a company called Plum. It was an AI company that he's been working on for five years. And as you can imagine, Aaron has a ton of reflections on why things may not have worked out the way he initially expected.
23:39Aaron, welcome to TITV. It's great to have you. Hey, thanks. It's good to be here. So you've had a big week. I mean, it's been a big week of decisions for you, it looks like. Yeah, or a half decade, depending on how you count. There you go. Yeah, well, that's true. It's all part of the big story. Look, before we talk about the week that you just had and the decision, what was the original vision for Palm? Yeah, the core vision here is you see tools like N8N, the OpenAI Agent Builder that just came out, you know, Gumloop and others automating processes and tasks and work with AI. And our thesis was, while there are many people in the world that will take the time to learn how to do that, it's quite technical, no matter how no code it is.
24:25And it would be amazing if there were kind of a sub stack for AI workflows where you could subscribe to someone else's creation that would then automate and customize something in your business life. And so that's kind of the mission that we ran against. Got it. And so you had that mission. Why did you decide ultimately to wind things down this week? I think we have decided that we're either early or wrong and probably early. But the reality is the number of people who can actually automate like full agentic workflows in work that actually work, right? Because there's a lot of hype and then there's the reality is a small number.
25:01And of those, a lot of those people benefit greatly by charging a lot of money to customize and consult and kind of go inside organizations and fix that. So we really had an inability to build a creator economy side of this equation. Lots of people want to subscribe to solutions, but there weren't enough people that were willing to create something that they share at a low enough price point to create a whole marketplace effect right now. So I think we're just still in the early innings of what agents and agentic workflows are going to do. And we think that that marketplace may come to fruition later down the road.
25:39And so from your end, as you reflect on this, was this more of a technical challenge that really dominated? Or was it a business model challenge? I think it's a business model challenge. We were able to invent the technology. I mean, things like meta JSON schema that allow you to actually share a workflow with thousands of other people. but the challenge was more, you know, is the market there? Is the business model right? How do you kind of optimize those lines? And while we felt like we were very close, it, you know, from a like line of sight to venture scale perspective, we just couldn't quite see it.
26:15And so we're still really committed to the space. We're still really interested in AI automation as a valuable place to play. We just felt like we needed to like wipe the slate clean and think about it fresh. How many employees did you have at the company? Seven people, really like a lean kind of zero to one team. Yep. Okay. And what's in store for the team now? Are you guys going to try to start a new startup? I mean, have you started talking about who's going to hire these people? What's the response been? It's been a very weird week. So I tweeted about our lessons learned and about the shutdown, you know, day before yesterday.
Read the full transcript
26:51and we've had over 100 inbound AI companies looking after the team. So basically everybody but Sam has DM'd me and been like, hey, what's next? So we're filtering and sifting through all that and we hope to find a good place to keep this band together because it's an incredible team. So that's job one. And then job two might be to hang a shingle and try again. And so are you going to take your hand again at an AI start? Are you going to start something new? I think we will. Yeah. The question is whether we do that right away or if we find a place to kind of rest and exercise some of the skills that we learn before we do that.
27:29But I'm a multi-generational entrepreneur and this is my fourth or fifth thing. So I'm definitely going to get the itch again soon. Right. I do want to talk to you broadly. I mean, you've been in this ecosystem for a while here. You have made the difficult decision to wind things down and maybe start fresh. This is something that we don't hear a lot about in Silicon Valley, not because it doesn't happen, but because when it does happen, few people want to talk about it, and it's an emotional decision. You know, I wonder, we have all of these AI startups, not all of them are going to work out. Most of them.
28:06Most, exactly. And we're not going to hear about the times when they don't work out because they'll sort of quietly fizzle out. You know, I guess what I'm trying to get is, have you seen a paradigm shift at all? You know, is it becoming more sort of accepted to sort of talk openly about the times when things don't work out? You know, how does that bode for the next opportunity people look for at big tech companies? I mean, has the stigma kind of gone away if there was one? I think that the market is ahead of people's mental models on this one. So, you know, you would think shutting down, you know, struggling to succeed in what you set out to do would come with some judgment.
28:45I have heard nothing but support from the broader community. I mean, it's, you know, hundreds of comments and they're all supportive. So that's unusual on X just in general. And I feel like a lot of entrepreneurs, especially if they're younger and this is their first or second swing, they feel like somehow there's something wrong and that they need to hide from it. And I would just encourage people like this is a really supportive community as as as hard as it can be in competition. It's supportive. Otherwise, every single competitor of ours has DM me with supportive words. And so I would say like the value of the learning far exceeds the problem of the stigma and it's worth getting out there.
29:25And last question for you, we talked about how most of these AI startups won't pan out the way people hope. What are you concerned about as you watch these startups proliferate? We have these big funding rounds that are coming in. Let's put valuations aside for a second. We'll put the sheer amount of money on the side for a second. But, you know, you've sort of, you've obviously taken apart your strategy that you've been working on the last five years. What concerns you or what's a bit of a red flag for you in the way that some of these AI startups are going about building their technology or building their business model even?
29:59I think there are two big concerns that we have. And one of them we spent a lot of time on, which is just the overall reliability and security of these platforms. There's a lot of excitement in the category about things like MCP that represent real security gaps, we believe. So I think there's going to be some stories of both technology failure, like just not living up to the hype, but also like pretty critical gaps in, you know, getting information or even money moving around that shouldn't be moving around. So we'll see how that plays out. I think we'll see some negative stuff there. And then the other one is just the underlying economy of AI right now runs on kind of token arbitrage.
30:37And there are a lot, a lot, a lot of startups that are selling a dollar for 90 cents right now. and sometimes that pans out if you can achieve enough scale and you can be the biggest planet in the solar system but for a lot of folks the math eventually just isn't going to pencil and i think we'll even see that play out in the public markets as well great well aaron thank you so much for coming on the show we really appreciate it we appreciate you being candid with us here it's obvious it's a difficult decision and uh i'm i'm sorry that things didn't work the way you wanted, but I really am excited to hear that you have a lot of enthusiasm for what's coming next.
31:14So thank you for coming on the show. That's Aaron Dignan, the co-founder and the CEO of Plum here on TITV. Okay. E-commerce is seeing a quiet revival, and it is the subject of our weekend magazine that publishes today. And most interesting part of this revival is that the crop of companies carrying the sector now looks very different to the e-commerce companies that were booming as of a few years ago. I want to bring on Anne Guillen, our e-commerce reporter, and Michael Duda, managing partner at Bullish, not the crypto company Bullish, but rather Bullish, the investing and marketing company that focuses on consumer.
31:49They are backers of companies like Warby Parker and Peloton and Harry's. Welcome, Michael. And welcome, Anne. It's so great to have you both. And you wrote this great story and it sort of took us a little bit through the history of e-commerce over the past five years. Give us a very brief sort of overview of that and then we'll talk about where the sector is today. Sure. I mean, e-commerce has been on a very wild ride over the past five years or so. So if you think back to 2020 when everyone was stuck at home, spending time on their phones, laptops, TikTok. Online shopping really boomed during that time.
32:29And then as things kind of opened back up, people pulled back on spending a little bit. VCs pulled back on investing. The sector went through a really tough period for the past couple of years and saw a lot of companies either have to really aggressively cut costs. We wrote a lot of layoff stories during that time, wrote a lot of CEO change stories during that time. You saw a lot of companies file for bankruptcy or sell - But we're back now. It seems like we're back. We're back. Yeah. And there's been kind of this new crop of companies that has come up in the past year or so where they're fast growing.
33:14They, in many cases, are already profitable or very close to it. They're expanding in retail very aggressively. And I think investors are really excited again about the category, which is great because a lot of people kind of turned their back on consumer over the past couple of years. But a lot of these new brands have people excited again. So Mike, one of the most interesting parts of the story here is how the evolution of DTC has sort of panned out. I remember a couple years ago, it was all DTC. I mean, this was the big business model change that these companies were making. And one of the things that Anne's story got into is we've sort of come back a bit to sort of the old ways of thinking about how we leverage sites like Amazon and actually approach brick and mortar.
33:59How has that thinking changed? Yeah, what all starts is consumers, this nation loves to consume. I mean, And 69 % of our economy is driven by consumer spending. So they're going to find a way. So anything that gets a dip tends to come back. But there was a punch in the face in 2021 to a lot of DTC when Apple unleashed iOS 14, which was a declaration war on Facebook and Meta. And all those lovely Silicon Valley investors that read the information were pumping stuff into DTC because of CAC and that. Well, that came from a halt. And there was a standing A count. And so companies had to relearn the basic truth.
34:36If you serve your customer and know what the consumer journey is, follow that. And not everything has to be online. I mean, during the pandemic, I think 27 % of all sales were online. That was when stuff was shut down. And now it's on the way back up. I think it's gone up three or four points. I think it's 19 % of all sales on that side. So things are coming back and e-commerce is a powerful weapon to be part of that consumer journey. But what about the advertising costs? We saw so many of these companies rely on Instagram marketing, for example, to be their main way of connecting with customers.
35:10Mike, has that become too expensive now for them? How has the thinking around that changed? Spending on Meta has become too expensive and too erratic. We'll talk to growth people saying like something that didn't work on Sunday works on Thursday and it can be a part of digital acquisition. So I'm not anti, I don't have anti Mark Zuckerberg posters in my room or anything. But a lot of businesses have learned, it's like, we have to have more of a full funnel approach. The consumer isn't spending all her time on Google and Facebook. She's out. And that's what we're seeing. I mean, even Shopify, who wants to get everyone on the internet and selling, most of their marketing efforts are doing things IRL.
35:44And a number of our businesses have done pop-ups with that, that do that. A lot of engagement to drive it. So e-com isn't just digital only world. I don't want to say omnichannel, but that consumer experience in e-com where you actually get data and a lot of people flowing from TikTok and other means, it's e-commerce definitely in vogue, without a doubt, as a part of the overall crisis. Right. And what about the types of startups that are really proliferating during this era? I mean, you know, if I think about it, this is one of the things you mentioned in the story. It seems like the purchase sizes are maybe a little bit smaller, but maybe that might be core to the reason why beverage companies, for example, are getting so much attention from venture capitalists.
36:27Yeah, exactly. I think, you know, if you think about it in the grand scheme of things, a, you know,$2 or$3 can of prebiotic soda is maybe expensive compared to a can of Coca-Cola, but it's a lot cheaper than a$89 cashmere sweater or a$129 pair of running shoes. So I think you've seen a lot of founders really smartly focus on these more consumable categories and move away from these bigger ticket purchases. And so I think part of that has been kind of following where the consumer is going, but also realizing that it's much easier to build a business when you do have customers coming back every week or every month to make a purchase versus just every once in a while.
37:19Right. Mike, I want to end with you here, and I want to focus on how it has affected your life as a venture capitalist. We've talked about the quiet revival of e-commerce. How are you seeing competition for these deals change in this environment? Are you seeing a lot more VCs coming back to the space? Are you seeing deals become more competitive? What are you seeing? Yeah, a lot of venture capitalists got out of dodge so to speak and went from crypto to ai on that side so um competition hasn't gone up as much across other funds family offices are stepping in others the interesting thing is we're seeing a lot of consumer businesses start up in enid oprahoma madison wisconsin minneapolis so it's all not new york new york san francisco like there's 340 million americans uh in this in this country and most of them don't live where three of us are right now.
38:16It's like between the pandemic and people moving back home. And listen, Shark Tank being America's game show, it's entrepreneurship is cool. But let's go back to the unit economics of these businesses. I mean, what gives you confidence that these businesses are going to last longer than some of those e-commerce businesses that started or got traction back in the, during the pandemic? I mean, we've seen a lot of those businesses go public and their businesses haven't been able to scale the way they thought. What's different about this crop economically? No, it's good. And pairing off a little bit of what Ann said, it's like we're seeing smarter entrepreneurs that have learned from the past mistakes for the past five or six years.
38:54We're seeing businesses focus on stronger gross margins, repeat purchases. So not like the DTC CAC acquisition dollars and go up to the right. It's like leaky buckets. It's get a customer, keep the customer. And instead of drop chip, like we talked about beverages, kind of hard to drop chip beverages in e-com that might weigh 20 pounds and need cold refrigeration. So we're seeing e-com plants in smarter areas of non-perishable vitamins and supplements and that. But it's the unit economics are absolutely, viable businesses are there. It just, you know, unfortunately the steroid effect of the meta era, I think that's a bad name for a few years, but we're back.
39:32We are back. Bullish wants you to know that we are back. I think that's a great place to leave it. Anne and Mike, thank you so much for coming on the show. It's an exciting topic. And like I always tell Anne, I mean, it's always a treat to read her stories because these are brands that we can actually use just by going to our local grocery store. And it's also names that don't have the words infrastructure and coding agents in them. It's a little more down to earth. Thank you to the both of you for coming on. And that is Mike and Anne here on TITV. Well, that does it for today's show. A reminder that we are on this stream Monday through Friday at 10 a.m.
40:12Pacific, 1 p.m. Eastern. I want to thank Amazon Web Services, who is our presenting sponsor for this production. And I want to thank you for tuning in. We really do appreciate your viewership. I am already excited for our next show on Monday. And so until then, have a great weekend. Bye-bye for now.
From the publisher
Qualtrics CEO Zig Serafin talks with TITV Host Akash Pasricha about the company's recent acquisition of Press Ganey Forsta. We also talk with Reflection AI CEO Misha Laskin about their $2B funding round from NVIDIA and the founder of Plumb Aaron Dignan about winding down his AI startup. Lastly, we get into the revival of the e-commerce sector with our Reporter Ann Gehan and investor Michael Duda.
Articles discussed on this episode:
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/e-commerce-startups-back-dead
TITV airs on YouTube, X and LinkedIn at 10AM PT / 1PM ET. Or check us out wherever you get your podcasts.
Subscribe to:
- The Information on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@theinformation4080/?sub_confirmation=1
- The Information: https://www.theinformation.com/subscribe_h
Sign up for the AI Agenda newsletter: https://www.theinformation.com/features/ai-agenda
