Bloody Sunday: Russia’s strikes on Sumy

0:02The Economist

0:09Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

0:24The Trump administration's kneecapping of America's science institutions is having an unintended yet entirely predictable effect. Brainy researchers want out. We look at what European institutions are doing, and should be doing, to hoover up all that talent. And Britain's consumer price index is, as elsewhere, calculated from a notional standard basket of goods. But standards really have changed. We look at what's been in the basket over the years, from cod liver oil to small, caged mammals.

1:01First up, though.

1:11Sumy is a town near Ukraine's north-eastern border. It's a classic, small provincial town founded by the Cossacks in the middle of the 17th century. Tim Judah is a special correspondent for The Economist. I was there exactly 10 days ago to meet the head of Sumi province's military administration and refugees who fled from settlements close to the border, which is now being pummeled by the Russians. The border is about 20 miles north of the city.

1:46On Sunday, two Russian missiles hit the city of Sumi, killing 34 people including two children and wounding at least 117. Videos show that the target of one of the missiles was the building I interviewed the head of the military administration in. Yesterday was Palm Sunday. Lots of people were out and about and many would have been in church at the moment of the missile strikes. The second missile killed many who were actually on a trolleybus, and videos show bodies literally scattered over the streets.

2:26Firefighters can be seen extinguishing the wrecks of burning cars.

2:42Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine's president, said that a baby girl born this year is amongst those who died. and, for example, a girl of the 25th birthday. The attack just came to the center of the city, in the spring of the week.

3:19had seen Vladimir Putin in St. Petersburg only 48 hours before this attack. And as horrific as this one is, it's not the only attack of its scope that we've seen in recent days. Well, that's right. I mean, civilians are dying every day. Yesterday, at the same time as the strike on Sumy, we had three civilians who died in Kherson. But this comes in the wake of real shock in Ukraine at an attack on April the 4th in the town of Krivirich, which is the hometown of President Volodymyr Zelensky, where a missile struck right next to a playground. Nineteen people died on that day, including nine children.

4:01So there seems to be absolutely no let-up in these attacks, while President Trump is sending his envoys to talk to Vladimir Putin and the Russians about ending this war and these attacks, of course, and looking for a ceasefire. But we don't see any evidence of that on the horizon. But the character of the attacks, as many people have alleged, is it looks like strikes deliberately on civilian targets. What do you make of those allegations? Look, it's really very hard to know what's in the mind of Russian commanders when they press the button on sending these ballistic missiles out. And this is opposed to these drones, because drones are something else.

4:38But in the Kudvi re-strike, they claimed that they were targeting a restaurant where there were military men meeting with Western military commanders, which turned out to be just complete nonsense. You know, I went to this restaurant, which they missed by hundreds of meters, and there'd been a children's party there. There was a big banner from the local business chamber of commerce because there'd been a meeting of people about local beauty product. In the case of Sumi, it's been muddied a little bit because one mayor from Sumi province and a deputy from parliament has accused the head of the Sumi province military administration of organising in Sumi that day a kind of an award ceremony for soldiers.

5:20The controversy would be that the Russians would say it was a legitimate military target if they were trying to target a large gathering of soldiers. But we have no way of knowing whether that's true or not. And you've been doing a lot of reporting on the ground in Ukraine. What's the feeling you get from civilians at this change in character of the attacks, the intensity of the attacks? Well, the best way to sum it up is what I saw and what I heard in Kudvyry. That was when the attack was, which killed the 19, including the nine children. And I went there five days after the attack and the first thing I noticed which was really quite strange was this district felt like a whole silence had fallen on this area the whole area was in complete shock and what you could see at the playground was this constant stream of people bringing teddy bears, bringing toys and flowers and leaving them in these ever-growing mounds in the playground.

6:24But when I talked to people, you know, I said, well, do you think that this means there should be a ceasefire? Everyone should stop fighting now. I met one person who said, you cannot wipe blood away with blood. But actually, that was, I think, an exception. and the vast majority of the people that I spoke to from this shock had come to this position of no we must answer this and as one person said who was standing literally two meters away from where her friend had been killed and had fallen on top of a child and had saved the child's life she said we need revenge and I think that slowly but surely that's the feeling that was happening could have And there's no reason to think that it should be a different insumi once the shock starts to wear off.

7:14And so how to put these attacks into the context of peace negotiations and how you feel Vladimir Putin is approaching them? Well, quite simply, it looks from the outside as though he's simply stringing Trump and his envoys along. I think that Mr. Putin, and I think that many people here in Ukraine think that Mr. Putin is actually not interested in peace talks. So he's not interested in stopping the war now. I think he thinks he's doing well. He thinks he's got Ukraine on the back foot. Perhaps he thinks that he can somehow have the blame for everything fall on Vladimir Zelensky and that the Americans cut off military aid and intelligence once again, as they did briefly a couple of weeks ago.

7:53Basically, I don't see any evidence that Mr. Putin wants to stop the war because he thinks he's doing okay. But what do you think of that thought? I mean, what we have heard in recent weeks is that Russia is making fewer and fewer gains. Ukraine is holding the line better. There is simply a shift, at least in morale, on the Ukrainian side. I think things are feeling better on the front line. I think the soldiers and people that I spoke to said that compared to several months ago, that their supplies of both imported and domestically produced arms are much better than before. Morale seems to be better than before.

8:28But, you know, the question is like, how long can this war grind on for? I guess the bigger question here in the context of negotiations with America for some kind of ceasefire is whether all of these attacks, especially this most recent one, kind of change the calculus to change the prospects for peace. Well, so far, there doesn't seem to be any evidence that that will happen. I mean, Mr. Trump is on record now condemning the attacks. I think it was terrible and I was told they made a mistake. But I think it's a horrible thing. I think the whole war is a horrible thing. But, you know, OK, well, what are you going to do about it if Mr.

9:06Putin is still continuing to fire these ballistic missiles and killing large amounts of civilians? It looks to me like there might be some sort of divisions within the administration amongst those dealing with Ukraine. General Keith Kellogg, who's the special envoy for Ukraine, said on social media, today's Palm Sunday attack by Russian forces on civilian targets in Sumy crosses any line of decency. And then he went on to say that's exactly why President Trump is, and I'm quote, working hard to end this war. But on the other hand, as I said, we've had Steve Witkoff, who actually did the negotiations or has been talking to Mr.

9:43Putin and we haven't heard from him. So, you know, let's see what happens. I mean, what is interesting is that one idea doing the rounds is that next Sunday, which is Easter Sunday, will be some sort of symbolic date and the Russians had better decide whether they're going to come on board on a ceasefire or not. But let's see. I mean, Mr. Trump said he was going to end the war in 24 hours. He's failed to do that. Let's see if he makes any success in ending the war at all. Tim, thanks very much for joining us. Thanks very much for having me.

10:32After the Nazis came to power in 1933, many scientists fled Germany, among them Albert Einstein, John von Neumann, and some of them fled to America. Christian Odendahl is our European economics editor. These refugees then created new fields of research in America, and the Second World War and the Cold War led to further scientific progress. Beneath the sinister mushroom, 80 ,000 died at Hiroshima. Today, behind the mushroom, science marshals its atomic resources to fight disease, drive industry, propel ships and aircraft, employing in America alone 150 ,000 men and women. America has continued to lure Europe's scientific talent across the Atlantic.

11:15But now that immigrants and science are targets of the Trump administration, Europe sees an opportunity to reverse that decade-long brain drain. So Christian, as first port of call here, in what ways is the Trump administration targeting science and indeed scientists? To the extent that I understand what the Trump administration is trying to do here, they are targeting sciences they disagree with, like climate science, gender studies, or public health. And I think they're attacking universities because these are centers of free thinking, critical thinking, progressive thinking, which the Trump administration only seem to like when such thinking comes to the same conclusions as those in power.

11:57And we have seen staff laid off at major science funding organizations in America. Mr. Trump threatened Columbia University with funding cuts unless it changes a few policies. So these are the things that are happening in America right now. And you think because of that hostility and funding drying up that the brain drain may naturally reverse itself? Well, scientists are a pretty independent bunch of people, right? They hate being told what to do. So scientific freedom is part of the research environment. And there, Europe may have something to offer now. But that is not all, of course. If you are a researcher in, say, artificial intelligence, right?

12:34You want to be where the cutting edge research is done. And that's America. And more generally, scientists want to be where other top scientists are. And of course, where funding for their research is available. I think Europe sees an opportunity at this moment to get mostly European talent back, people who might have considered moving home anyway. And universities and research funders are all considering options. We know from Germany's Max Planck Society, which funds world-leading researchers, that they have been approached and are looking at options. French politicians and universities are probably the most aggressive at the moment.

13:07But also EU science ministers wrote a letter to the European Commission recently that they want immediate action to attract talents from abroad. And of course, it remains to be seen whether this time is different than during the first Trump administration, for example. One researcher told me that there was a lot of talk about leaving America, but very few in the end did. And you hinted earlier about the link between technological advance and military technology. Do you think the current geopolitical mess is having an effect on what kind of research Europe is now doing? Yeah, I think science overall is no longer sort of a nice to have.

13:43In the geopolitical conflict that Europe finds itself in now, it has to be at the cutting edge of defense research and military technologies, for example. China is far ahead in AI and quantum computing and cybersecurity, which then could create new vulnerabilities. he's the dependence on digital services from Silicon Valley no longer looks wise. That is also what the science ministers say very explicitly in their letter to the commission. They say research, science and talents are necessary to enhance Europe's strategic autonomy. And then of course there is economic growth, right? Europe's economic model is aging, much like its population.

14:20So science and innovation more broadly becomes the main way through which the European economy can grow. Together with what is happening in America, this could be Europe's chance. As one scientist put it to me, if we don't manage to boost science now, I don't know if we ever will. And so do you think those goals are achievable, are reasonable? Is Europe expecting too much change too fast after all these decades? Yeah, I think there's maybe a bit too much optimism in Europe on this one at the moment. America is just very, very far ahead in sciences. If we just look at the money, for example, America spends 3.5 % roughly of GDP on research and development and Europe 2%.

14:59So that's a pretty sizable gap already. But that even doesn't tell the full story. So America's higher spending is mostly private businesses. And for Europe to get to such a high research and development spending by businesses, it needs to have much more research-intensive industries, much deeper capital markets for risky, innovative firms and startups, a more unified European market so that startups want to start and scale in Europe and not leave for America the first chance they get. And then even in higher education spending, where Europe holds up quite well, it spends less on the high quality research in universities.

15:35It spreads it much wider. That is laudable, I guess, in trying to spread education and science across the continent. But for the scientific advances that Europe needs, for the innovation that it needs, the talent that it needs. It has to have more excellent universities and institutes. And that means taking money away elsewhere. And that will be a very tough political sell. But if Europe makes itself more welcoming to talent from abroad, America in particular, it's going to make itself more attractive to talent more generally outside America. Yeah, exactly. That's a hugely important point. One American scientist put it to me that American universities are basically run on foreign PhD students.

16:13Another said that America has this hunger for foreign talent that Europe does not have. And so Europe will need to develop that in many ways, from visas to making a more welcoming culture, to make universities more attractive, less administratively burdensome, and so forth. And what is happening in America may in fact now divert some of that foreign talent to Europe. There was a fascinating new study looking at the first Trump term and the restrictions on high-skilled H-1B visas. Canada was the major beneficiary because foreign talent went there instead, and then boosting Canadian firms and even the wages of natives.

16:51And going all the way back to historical migrations again, the scientists that fled Germany, they built up new research in America, but it mostly worked through the young new talent that built on the input of the refugees. So Europe should make sure that it attracts the best young talent to make the most of it this time. Christian, thanks very much for joining us. Thanks for having me, Jase.

17:24Cod liver oil. 1947 to 1951. Mercifully passed away swiftly. Liver lasted a little longer. 1947 to 1998. Avocados didn't arrive until 1993, but they have thrived since then. Catherine Nixie is a culture correspondent for The Economist. To read the contents list of the basket of goods, updated recently by Britain's Office for National Statistics, is an intriguing experience. For economists, this offers a sober measure of consumer price inflation. For everyone else, it's a births and deaths column for British consumerism, announcing the arrival of some objects and acting for others as their epitaph.

18:11So most recently it's announced the arrival of men's sliders and the demise of newspaper advertisements. It has previously recorded the end of linoleum. 1980. Of corsets. 1970. And of oil lamps. 1947. Its very name is a relic. That word basket sounds like something that might have hung from the arm of a British housewife as she went to the shops in her Macintosh. 1947 to 1952. To buy Brussels sprouts. 1947 to 2006. Sometimes it's simply an enigma. In the 2000s, a small caged mammal appeared unexpectedly in the ONS's calculations. The basket itself was born in 1947 after the Second World War. The political mood was extremely tense.

18:58British families had had to pay a high price, in some case the ultimate price for the war. And they were annoyed at how high the prices for everything else were in the peace. It was in this era that macroeconomic theory began. Now Britain's bean counters needed microeconomic data on things like the price of beans to apply those theories. And that meant shoe leather reporting. Shoe repairs. 1947 to 2003. Every month the government's bean counters, 280 of them, set out to the shops in around 140 places across Britain to collect 180 ,000 prices of hundreds of goods and services. These prices are then gathered into categories, so the small caged mammal goes to make up a larger category on pets.

19:42Then, the changes in the price are calculated, and this enables the government to know about inflation, and at least something about the price of eggs.

19:53What they also show is how much Britain has changed. The 1947 list, made at the height of rationing, shows a nation that's surviving on Brussels sprouts, margarine, and the ominously opaque compound cooking fat. Evelyn Waugh later wrote that this was a bleak period of present privation, and, he added even more bleakly, of soya beans. In the so-called hungry novels of wartime and post-war Britain, British novelists with poor diets and rich imaginations allowed their characters to gorge on the foods which they could not. In Brideshead Revisited, Sebastian Flight eats strawberries and sips Chateau Perraguet beneath a spreading summer elm.

20:33It isn't a wine you've ever tasted, he tells his companion. Given that Brideshead was published in 1945 and table wine didn't appear on lists until 1980, this was very probably true. These ONS records offer a picture not merely of national consumerism, but of national character. Julian Barnes, the novelist, once said that to build a character, you must start with the shoes. And the basket does indeed give you Britain's footwear, from men's leather Oxfords, 1947, to plimsolls, 1947 to 1987, to the casually late arrival of the trainer, 1987. But the lists also give you detail on Britain's underwear, which in 1962 included a girdle, and on where Britain spend their time.

21:18Climbing walls have now replaced bingo halls.

21:23It's not just the items on these lists that have changed. It's the length of the lists themselves. Early lists aren't just nasty, with that cod liver oil, or occasionally brutish. 1952, for example, offers home-killed mutton and lamb. They're also very short. The 1947 basket has only around 200 items in it. The current one, by contrast, has 750. One study found that in the early 1970s, Americans could choose between five types of running shoe. By the late 1990s, they had 285. One of the defining features of our modern lives is choice in everything. And that's from whether or not to fight in a war, to whether or not to spend your money on avocados, or even on small caged mammals.

22:17That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.