Abate and switch: how China’s emissions fell

0:00The holidays bring brand new gadgets, bigger spending, and even more on your to-do list. Good thing Verizon gives you more than just a great network. We give you a whole lineup of products and services. Like a protection plan for your family's home tech that covers everyday mishaps. A credit card that rewards holiday shopping with real savings. And a smartwatch built specifically for keeping up with your kids. Take the stress out of the season. Pick what works for you at verizon.com slash extras. This Economist podcast is sponsored by Apollo.io. In a fast-moving business environment, finding the right people to connect with takes time.

0:40For sales teams, prospecting, outreach, and follow-up can mean juggling multiple tools and workflows. Apollo.io brings these activities together in one platform, helping sales teams find the right buyers and spend less time on scattered, manual tasks and more time building relationships. Apollo.io. Sign up for free at Apollo.io.

1:03The Economist.

1:10Hello, and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Ore Ogumbi.

1:19Today on the show, why El Salvador's gangbusting president is sending troops to Haiti. and what yawning tells us about the social bonds between wolves.

1:35But first...

1:43With the annual UN Climate Conference COP31 currently underway, emissions are again centre stage. And you can't talk about emissions without talking about China. Last year, it released around 12 billion tonnes of CO2. That's roughly a third of the world's total carbon emissions, and more than twice as much as the US. Apart from a downward blip during the COVID pandemic, China's release of climate warming gases has increased almost every year for the last four decades. But now, in a piece of good news, that might be changing. It seems as though China's industrial carbon dioxide emissions have genuinely fallen in the past year, and the rate seems to be increasing.

2:33The figures for the third quarter are really quite impressive.

2:40It's not true that every little fall in carbon dioxide emissions is always good news. Sometimes they fall because of the weather or because of something that will quickly reverse itself in markets. But some of the things driving this fall are genuine structural changes. And if the dynamics driving the fall persist, then the fall will go on. And that really is good news. Oli, talk me through the numbers. They come from a very dependable and admirable Finnish think tank, the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air. And they find that Chinese carbon emissions drop 3.1 % year on year in the third quarter of 2026, which is a bigger decline than I think any that's been seen since the onset of the COVID lockdowns.

3:25The overall annual figure will be less impressive than that. But the thing you have to keep in mind is why is this happening? And some of the reasons are conjunctural, like it's not been very cold in China, so people haven't been burning stuff to warm themselves up. But other things are really structural. And one is that although the car industry has not been in great shape in China recently, the proportion of cars sold that are electric vehicles is now really high, it's well over half. And you can also see that renewable energy generation continues to grow and in fact renewable and nuclear between them are now growing faster than electricity consumption is in China.

4:06But it's not just that they're using more renewables, it's that they're using less fossil fuels. Yes, and there the big driver is the foolhardy and ignominious war between Israel and the United States and Iran, which has, as we know, sent liquefied natural gas prices up and oil prices up. And normally, when things get more expensive, people tend to use less of them. The problem is that normally, when this gets reversed and things get cheaper again, people use more of them. But there's a ratcheting effect now through the widespread availability of electric vehicles, which is that if your way of using less oil is to drive less far, then that's one thing and that can reverse easily.

4:48But if you look at your position and think, well, in order to use less oil, I'm actually going to buy myself an electric car, then you're never going to fill it up with oil. And so that ratchet means that something that changes because prices change stays locked in because the technology that people are using has changed. And that's very encouraging. Another encouraging structural thing is that the grids for getting renewable electricity to the people who use it are getting better. And so less renewable electricity is being wasted because it can't actually get to market. That's also the sort of thing that tends to build on itself.

5:20It means that investing in electrical generation in China becomes more cost effective. So these look like trends that could actually last, even though, God willing, the war in Iran won't. And as a result, the current squeeze on oil and liquefied natural gas won't. But how about on an industrial scale? Are we seeing those shifts in habits there as well? To some extent, but I think the biggest thing there is that the industries that have been producing a lot of carbon dioxide are doing so less because the construction boom in China is over. And so cement and steel produce a lot of carbon dioxide.

5:58And if you're making less of that, then you will produce less carbon dioxide. There are moves towards using electricity for industrial heat and for other purposes within industry in China and in other parts of the world. But they're not, I think, big enough to be remotely showing up in these figures as yet. This is all especially timely with COP31 currently underway. But Oli, I want us to look forward a little bit. Do you see China continuing to head in this promising direction? Yeah, well, when you say it's timely, yes, it is indeed timely. But you've got to bear in mind, this isn't being done primarily for climate reasons.

6:33This is being done because being a power that has a lot of renewable energy kit to use and to export is good for China. And it's being done because replacing cars and haulage vehicles that use expensive imported oil with ones that use electricity is a good idea for China and for many other people. So although this news comes out at the time of the COP in Turkey, you shouldn't mistake it for being in some way sort of like a result of climate policies. What climate policies, I think, need to do now is push at this open door and try to find any way they can to encourage further electrification. And to their credit, that's very much on the agenda of COP31 and Anatolia, very much driving an electrification agenda to the extent that climate policy can do such a thing.

7:21Okay, so it's also good business for China. Oh, yes. China is doing this because it is a good business for China. Yes, they have invested a great deal of money in developing this capacity. And obviously, that will raise hackles in people who don't want their native manufacturers pushed aside by Chinese cleantech. But in general, consumers will benefit from Chinese cleantech wherever they're allowed to get it. There are some security concerns that some countries will have to take seriously about embedded software in some of these articles. But in general, and you know, our colleagues have reported on it in Pakistan, in Zimbabwe, giving people cheap solar power is really good for them.

8:02It's not an absolute replacement for the sort of electricity systems that modern countries like to enjoy, but it's an awful lot better than not having any electricity at all. And it's a good bit better than using an unreliable grid that can go down at times when you need it to stay up. And it's a lot better than using diesel generators, which are bad for the air quality nearby and bad for carbon emissions in general. Now, we've spoken mostly about China, but could other countries also follow in this direction? Yes, they could. And indeed, to some extent, they are. It makes a lot of sense to try and increase the number of electric vehicles on your streets.

8:40And if you're a country that doesn't have a lot of coal, or even frankly, if you're a country that does have a lot of coal, it makes increasing amounts of sense to generate your electricity from solar panels, especially since batteries, also provided by the Chinese, make solar panels so much more useful. So that's a win-win. So the fact that the world's leading manufacturing economy is now tied to a strategy that promotes decarbonisation around the world is undoubtedly good news. And we don't want to get ahead of ourselves, but it is also the fact that the Global Carbon Budget Consortium, which looks at the global carbon budget, has announced some preliminary figures suggesting that global carbon dioxide emissions will have dropped slightly by the end of this year.

9:24It's a smaller effect, and obviously the Chinese effect is built into it, but it does suggest that the electrification of everything agenda does have some oomph to it and still has a long way to run. It's not a solution to all the climate problems and the climate problems are still very real and the amount of climate change coming at us is still deeply disturbing. But it does show that something is working even if it's not being done for that purpose. Oli, thank you so much for your time. Hey, it was a pleasure talking to you, Ori.

10:08You save, you invest, you keep an eye on spending. So why do your finances still feel so complicated? Quicken helps you put the whole picture together and make sense of what to do next. Connect accounts from more than 14 ,000 financial institutions and see how all the different pieces of your financial life fit together. With Quicken, you can make sense of your options and decide what to do next. Quicken. Know what to do next. See how at Quicken.com. This message is brought to you by today's sponsor, Walden University. Set a course for change. Now is the time to make a real change in your life, career, and community.

10:44At Walden University, we give you the support and flexibility to get the W. Walden's online programs are designed for working professionals like you. You'll gain hands-on skills to take on real-world challenges and succeed. Your future is waiting, and Walden is here to help you achieve it. Take the first step to make your impact. Visit waldenu.edu. Walden University. Set a course for change. Certified to operate by Shev.

11:16This week, El Salvador's president, Naive Bukele, announced that a joint strike by Salvadoran and Haitian forces had destroyed the headquarters of 400 Maruoso, Haiti's largest criminal gang. Bukele's forces first moved into the country last month after four Salvadoran aviation technicians serving as part of a UN-backed force in Haiti disappeared They probably didn't survive but Bukele ordered a mission to rescue them anyway Now, it seems his motives are much broader Bukele has been saying for a long time that he wants to finish with the gangs in Haiti or boasting that he could do Sarah Burke is an America's correspondent And since October the 22nd he's sent some 2 ,000 Salvadoran soldiers into the country That's a large contingent Now before we get to Haiti, Sarah remind us who Nayib Bukele is and about his presidency So Bukele is the president of El Salvador and he's become a strong man but he was initially extremely popular and in fact remains with a decent amount of the population, at least very popular, for making the country safer.

12:33And he did this in a way that trampled all over human rights, locking up huge numbers of young men, often on very flimsy evidence, building a mega prison where people disappear into. But it definitely made El Salvador safer, the murder rate plummeted. And so he won a lot of accolades, not only at home, but also abroad. But he's got ambitions, He wants to be admired on a global stage. And I think this is a way in which he's trying to do so by flexing his muscles elsewhere. One other thing to bear in mind is he's up for re-election in February, which is sort of a done deal already. But it always helps to have people actually want to vote for you.

13:08So why Haiti? I mean, in short, it's an opportunity. You know, there's been chaos in Haiti since the last elected president, Jovenel Moïse, was assassinated back in 2021. and gangs control swathes of the capital. There have been at least 16 ,000 Haitians killed since then and 1.5 million displaced. I mean, the numbers are absolutely shocking. There's 12 million people suffering from acute hunger. And so really it's so dire that I think people are happy that anyone wants to have a go at making it better. It's almost a sense of, well, nothing could go worse. And for Mr Bukele, it's a way in which he thinks, well, maybe I can boost my reputation on the global stage.

13:48And so what exactly is he planning on doing there? Well, that's sort of the million dollar question, Ore. I mean, he initially said that he was sending in these troops to rescue or recover four Salvadoran Air Force technicians who were part of a UN-backed force that's operating also in Haiti. He initially said, well, we're going in to recover them. But no one quite believes that. you know, you don't usually send 2000 troops in for something like that. And you don't usually boast about being able to end Haiti's gang violence. So we're sort of all waiting to see what does he do? I mean, does he go and do some operations?

14:23Is this going to be a case of having some videos taken that he can post and then he's going to withdraw? No one really knows. But this has huge stakes. This is the largest deployment of foreign troops outside of a UN mission to any country in the Americas in years. Haiti, the interim government there, has given him permission. And Donald Trump also seems to have given the idea a nod. And there are some other countries in the region who have also pledged logistical support. But we're really all having to watch and wait and see what this is about. And you mentioned the UN. How is this going to work alongside the existing UN forces there?

15:00Well, that is one of the big questions as well. I mean, There is a UN-backed gang suppression force, and it's made up of forces from six different countries. Now, everyone thought it would make sense for these two forces to work together, or the Salvadorans to be part of the UN-backed force, especially as that was meant to have 5 ,500 troops, but actually only has 2 ,000. But that's clearly not going to be the case. And so I think you have the UN is quite worried that Buckele is going to go out and do his own thing. And this is potentially the beginning of the end for the UN-backed force. And obviously, there's lots of confusion about how are these forces going to work together.

15:36And I mean, I should note too, that it's not just these two forces. There's also the Haitian police, the Haitian army, and Eric Prince, the notorious Eric Prince of Blackwater fame, has also got men on the ground. So there's a worry about confusion, human rights abuses, and those being attributed to the UN when they weren't actually committed by the UN. What is the end game here? Well, again, we have to wait and see. I mean, this might work out brilliantly for Bukele. It might boost his image. He might come out unscathed. A few, and I should say it's a very few people, think he actually has a shot of improving Haiti.

16:12I mean, we again should note that Haiti is a very different situation from El Salvador. And so he can't just apply the same methodology that he used at home in Haiti. So most people think it's not going to go super well. But there are obviously lots of risks. If he's underestimating what this takes, it could very easily escalate and just make things even worse and embroil him into this long war. I should note that the UN forces that it backs have been operating cautiously. I mean, not engaging with the gangs too much. And that's for good and for bad. So, again, we'll have to see what this does.

16:45And I think everyone would love it if this could make Haiti safer and do away with the gangs. But I think very few people think that that's going to be the outcome here. Sarah, thank you so much for joining us. A pleasure, Ory.

17:12Hold on a second.

17:18Yawning is contagious. We know this. Why it's contagious has remained a mystery for years. As a result, a lot of research has gone into not just human yawn contagion, but animals too. Matt Kaplan writes about science for The Economist. Chimpanzees, elephants, pigs, wolves, and even parrots seem to catch yawns. And the hope is that by studying these animals and understanding why they catch one another's yawns, we might understand why yawns have evolved at all. And what's really interesting is that dogs are somewhat different from all of these other species. How so? Tell me a bit more about that.

18:04So, elephants catch yawns from other elephants. Chimpanzees catch yawns from other chimpanzees. Pigs, same thing. Wolves, yes. Dogs, dogs are different. Dogs catch yawns from people, but they don't tend to catch yawns from other dogs. which is just so weird, but also kind of well explained by the fact that man's best friend has been bred by man for over 30 ,000 years. And something during that 30 ,000 years has slipped in the dog brain to make the dog more associated with humans than with others of its own kind. So researchers have started studying dogs and also wolves, because wolves are effectively the nearest common ancestor that we have to dogs, and looking at what happens when you start to insert dog genes into a wolf population, and whether that starts to degrade the catchiness of yawns amongst wolves.

19:07So who's doing this research? What are they looking for? And what have they been able to find? Fascinated by these questions, researchers in evolutionary anthropology at the University of Leipzig and at La Sapienza University in Rome intensively looked at these animals during 15 minute sessions. More specifically, the researchers looked at 20 captive purebred wolves and 13 captive wolves that had dog genes that were inserted into them through crossbreeding. And they discovered that catchiness of yawns between wolves that are purebred is perfectly fine. When purebred wolves witnessed a yawn, they were 41 % likely to copy that yawn within two minutes.

19:51In contrast, when they looked at these wolves that were hybrid with dogs and had dog genes inserted into them, they were only 24 % likely to copycat a yawn. That's a pretty big deal because it suggests that something in dog genes causes wolves to no longer copycat yawns as much. So did particular individuals among the dogs trigger yawn copycatting or was it random? What was really surprising was that the wolves did not respond to yawns more so when there was an alpha male or a dominant individual in their midst. And the same thing for whether or not there was a close pair bond, like between a mother and a child wolf.

20:38If the mother yawned, the child was not more likely to yawn than if there was another wolf nearby. What did come out of the work was that the socialites of the pack, wolves that got along with everybody and interacted with everybody, were more likely to trigger yawn waves in the group than others. This is interesting because it's very different from what we see in chimpanzees and bonobos, where the strength of the social bond, like a very strong bond between mother and child, would trigger a contagious yawn. That wasn't seen here. What was seen was really the socialites being the ones to trigger this.

21:17Why do these results matter? On the face of it, whether or not a wolf copies the yawn of another wolf seems irrelevant. And at the micro level, it is. But what the yawning is revealing and the contagiousness of the yawning is revealing is that dog genes mess up the sociality of wolves. The social interactions that are taking place amongst wolves, and wolves are incredibly social animals. They depend upon pack activity, hunting in unison, living in groups, and looking after one another. When those social dynamics are damaged, that could have really serious consequences for wolves and the way in which they behave in our ecosystems.

21:58So the insertion of dog genes into wolves is ultimately a really serious problem because it could mess up wolf dynamics in a big way. We're only seeing it by messing up the contagiousness of yawns. But there are going to easily be a lot of other things that we're not sensitive to that are part of Wolf's social interactions that are changing, too. And we just don't know about them. Matt, thank you so much for joining us. My pleasure.

22:40That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

23:02you've got big plans for your money you invest you track you plan ahead but does your financial app actually help you decide what to do next quicken helps you go beyond balances and basic reports project your cash flow dig into your investments and use quicken ai to understand what matters across your finances with quicken you can make sense of your options and decide what to do next. Quicken. Know what to do next. See how at Quicken.com. The holidays bring brand new gadgets, bigger spending, and even more on your to-do list. Good thing Verizon gives you more than just a great network. We give you a whole lineup of products and services, like a protection plan for your family's home tech that covers everyday mishaps, a credit card that rewards holiday shopping with real savings, and a smartwatch built specifically for keeping up with your kids.

23:53Take the stress out of the season. Pick what works for you at verizon.com slash extras.