Canuck of the draw: Canada’s election campaigns

0:10Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Rosie Bloor. And I'm Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

0:25You might think that with Donald Trump's somewhat maverick style of diplomacy, China would be on a charm offensive right now. Our correspondent tells us why that doesn't quite seem to be happening. And our culture editor reviews a new book that's part of a wave of dystopian fiction. It considers the nexus between technology, personal freedom, criminality. What's unsettling about it is how easily that fiction could be the future.

1:03But first...

1:10Many Canadians, citizens and businesses seem to be leaning into a deep but playful anti-Donald Trump vibe. The latest wheeze? Moosehead, one of Canada's oldest breweries, has unveiled the presidential pack, crates of 1 ,461 beers, one a day until the end of Mr. Trump's term. His policies and his threats are now at the center of an election campaign that got underway this week. After Justin Trudeau's resignation, Mark Carney won the party leadership race, and in just a week, he called a snap election. I've just requested that the governor general dissolve parliament and call it an election for April 28th.

1:51That pits his Liberal Party against the Conservatives in what is really mostly a two-horse race. But after the lost Liberal decade, the question is whether Canadians can afford A fourth liberal term. Pierre Poiliev leads that Conservative Party. And until very recently, he led the polls. By a lot. The campaign has been completely turned on its head over the last six, seven weeks because of the threat Donald Trump represents to Canada's economic prosperity, its security, its independence. Rob Russo is our Canada correspondent. And whoever can convince Canadians that they can get them across the turbulent Trump divide is going to be the one that's going to win.

2:37And when we spoke two weeks ago, you said that if Donald Trump didn't exist, Mark Carney wouldn't have a campaign even to run. Why is it he has emerged as a guy who plausibly can be, would be the best person to navigate the Trump divide you describe? It's almost like he's the anti-politician and the persona of the sober central banker that one would never think would work in an era of populism is actually working now. In contrast, Mr. Poiliev, he is a populist, very good at bombast against elites, against those in power. It's that kind of attack that has made Mr. Poiliev sound at times like the Republicans under Donald Trump.

3:18And that portrait is striking a discordant note among a lot of Canadians who don't want simple answers to complex problems. But in light of those differences that seem clear from before the campaign, how is Mr. Polyev campaigning? What's his message now? He's trying to go after the issues that propelled him to a 20-point lead just a few short months ago, campaigning on domestic issues. Number one, affordability. Canada First Conservatives will cut income taxes by 15 % or$2 ,000 for the average couple. So that's familiar ground for him. The tricky ground for him, of course, is the comparisons sometimes people draw between him and Donald Trump, comparisons that were drawn by a provincial premier, Alberta's Danielle Smith, a conservative provincial cousin of Mr.

4:08Poiliev, gave an interview to the right wing media outlet Breitbart, also supporters of Donald Trump, in which she said that she urged Mr. Trump's administration or officials in that administration to tone down their threats against Canada. in order to give Mr. Poiliev a better chance in the election because those threats had resuscitated the Liberal Party. Politicians posture and it seems to be benefiting the Liberals right now. So I would hope that we could put things on pause, is what I've told administration officials. Let's just put things on pause so we can get through an election. The other thing that she said that is going to be dogging Mr.

4:46Poiliev probably throughout the campaign now is that Mr. Poiliev's ideas are more in sync with the ideas that are in vogue in Donald Trump's America right now. That's the kind of thing that can just knock the wheels out from under the conservative campaign bus. And as for Mr. Carney, what does his campaign look like so far? As we get into the campaign, I think we're going to see that there is little in terms of division between the liberals and the conservatives when it comes to policy. Mark Carney's first policy announcement as soon as the campaign began was a tax cut. The election will be decided on who has the confidence of the people when it comes to getting us across that Trump divide.

5:28And it's not ground that the conservatives have been preparing. For the last two years, they've been preparing to fight on a carbon tax. Mark Carney championed the consumer carbon tax, and now he knows that it's politically toxic. So he's eliminated it before the campaign even began. The conservatives still seem to be looking for their footing. Mark Carney hasn't even undone his shoelaces, for goodness sake. He's trying to rebuild the Liberal Party right through this campaign and trying to introduce himself at the same time. But you live in the States. Yeah, so? The Mike Myers ad was all about reintroducing Mr.

6:06Carney, who isn't known by a lot of Canadians, and trying to get people to show that he has lifelike tendencies, that he can laugh. Capitalist's dismantling. Regina, tragically. Pip, you're a defenseman defending a two-on-one. What do you do? Take away the pass, obviously. What are the two seasons in Toronto? Winter and construction. And that he's not afraid of acknowledging the fact that he was outside of the country. Both he and Mr. Myers, who was legendary because of his Austin Powers movies, have left Canada. Mr. Kearney has come back and is serious about his love of country. And he used, I would say, a kind of boomer comic icon to get that across.

6:41But let me ask you, Mr. Prime Minister, there. Will there always be a Canada? There will always be a Canada. All right. Elbows up. Elbows up. And love of country is really what the campaign's all about. Rob, we've been talking about this in terms of a almost like a two-party system, only two horses in the race, but that's not how Canadian politics works. How is this going to run in terms of electoral numbers? Well, there are a couple of other parties that can play an interesting role in the campaign. The New Democratic Party, which is the leftist socialist party, usually polls around 20 percent.

7:15And they've had their number in effect cut in half as a lot of them, scared by the threat of Mr. Trump to our independence, our prosperity, have started to go to Mr. Carney in order to keep Pierre Poilievre from becoming prime minister. The other really interesting note in this, the Bloc Québécois, which only runs candidates in the French-speaking province of Quebec, they see their vote also being slashed by the arrival of Mr. Carney. And therein lies where Mark Carney might win his mandate. Not just from liberals, but from scared independent supporters in the province of Quebec and scared leftists across the rest of the country.

7:55Rob, thanks as ever for your time. My pleasure, Jason.

8:16Last month in Jakarta, Indonesia's capital, there were negotiations on a deal to ease geopolitical tensions in the South China Sea. Aaron Connolly is our Asia diplomatic editor. The leader of the Chinese delegation began by quoting Henry Kissinger, who said, It may be dangerous to be America's enemy, but it is fatal to be its friend. Now, Kissinger said this at the height of the Vietnam War, but he was warning of the consequences of America turning on its allies in Asia, not suggesting that it necessarily would. That will be little consolation to countries like the Philippines, which depend upon America to defend them in the South China Sea, particularly as they see Trump threatened to abandon Ukraine.

8:57With an unpredictable Donald Trump upending international relations, you might expect China to be wooing Asian countries. Yet in recent weeks, charm has been notably absent from Chinese diplomacy. Aaron, before we get into the state of current diplomatic relations, when we spoke in October about those tensions in the South China Sea, we heard some quite dramatic recordings of Chinese coastguards

9:24wielding axes and knives and clashing with Filipino boats. I was wondering if tensions have eased at all since then. They have. We haven't seen any of those sorts of incidents, but that doesn't mean that China is in the mood to make any concessions. After the negotiations in Jakarta in February over what's called a code of conduct in the South China Sea, the Singapore paper of record, The Straits Times, reported that China had softened its position and that the code might be completed this year. But our reporting indicates that quite to the contrary, China has given no ground in the latest round of negotiations and that diplomats do not expect talks on the code now in their 23rd year to conclude anytime soon.

10:04But since Donald Trump returned to the White House, Chinese diplomats are keen to highlight America's missteps. And they have two lines of attack. The first message to America's allies is to say that America can't be relied upon. The message to the global south is that small and weak countries will be the first to suffer. So Aaron, that doesn't quite sound like a charm offensive. That's right. You know, Rosie, 20 years ago, China did attempt a charm offensive under Hu Jintao. It resolved some of its territorial issues with its neighbors. It started new diplomatic and development initiatives. We don't really see any of that from China now.

10:43It seems that China sees this as a moment of vulnerability for America and its allies. And while it's adjusted its rhetoric to exploit distress at Trump's actions, otherwise there haven't been any major changes in its positions or concessions to its neighbors. Take its relationship with India. There was an agreement last October between India and China that helped to resolve their four-year border dispute in the Himalayas. But now we see China building a new dam on a river that flows into India, which would cause water problems downstream and potentially offering stealth fighter jets to Pakistan, India's historical adversary.

11:22Likewise, Australia. There's been an improvement in the relationship between Australia and China over the last three years after Australia elected a labor government. But we also see China's navy sailing a flotilla into the Tasman Sea between Australia and New Zealand and doing live fire exercises off the coast of Australia for the first time. And that has raised questions in Canberra about China's intentions. And are we seeing China trying to actively improve its relationship with any of its neighbors? Well, there may be one exception, which is Japan. Japanese leaders in business, in the military, and in its political parties are seeing a new warmth coming from China.

12:04Now, to be clear, that predates the Trump administration coming to power. But on March 22nd, we expect the foreign ministers of Japan, China and South Korea to meet in Tokyo. And that is a meeting that China has often refused to schedule as a way of showing disappointment or frustration with its neighbors. But so far, the only concession that Japan has seen from China is the possibility of loosening some restrictions on Japanese seafood imports. Aaron, it is still the early days of the Trump presidency, though. it doesn't always feel like that with the flurry of news. If China's looking to take advantage of the current geopolitical situation, where do you think we're likely to see it trying to make progress?

12:46It's difficult to say because so much of this is down to the lack of flexibility and creativity in its diplomacy. Xi Jinping, as president, has really centralized decision making around him. He's downgraded the foreign ministry. And it appears that even senior Chinese officials are wary of suggesting new initiatives, particularly ones that might show weakness. But at the same time, Chinese diplomats' reluctance to take advantage of the current moment is partly born out of pragmatism. In a party journal recently, one Chinese scholar wrote that China should maintain continuity in its foreign policy and stability in its behavior.

13:24That's more Napoleon than Kissinger, who is credited with saying, never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake. Aaron, thank you so much for talking to me. Good to talk to you, Rosie.

13:48How do you concoct a plausible fictional near future in which people's reliance on technology has gone too far? Alexandra Sewage-Bass is The Economist's culture editor. You could sprinkle in the rational irrationality of Joseph Heller's and Franz Kafka's best works. You could maybe take a big handful of 1984 with Big Brother and the surveillance state reimagined with private sector incentives. Next, you could mix in a dollop of Minority Report, a film from 2002 based on a novella by Philip K. Dick. In the film, Tom Cruise stars as part of a law enforcement unit that solves pre-crimes before people commit heinous acts.

14:34The Dream Hotel is a new novel that uses familiar ingredients about the creep of technology and the trade-offs people make for convenience. It's written by Leila Lalami, a Moroccan-American novelist. She combines traditional storytelling techniques with some unusual ones. such as excerpts from a company's terms of service, medical reports, meeting minutes, and even customer service email chains. The protagonist is Sarah Hussain, who's an archivist returning from a work trip, and she runs afoul of bureaucrats at Immigration Control. They say her risk assessment score is too high and that she could pose a threat to her husband's life.

15:14Sarah becomes retainee M7493002. She spends a lot of time in confinement thinking about what went wrong and concludes that having a DreamSaver chip implanted, which could help with sleep deprivation, was a mistake. Instead, the DreamSaver shared information with the government about her dreams and third parties.

15:41The Dream Hotel evokes a world a bit reminiscent of China's social credit score system, where citizens are assessed on a variety of metrics. It also has a touch of America's private prison complex, because retainees are charged vast sums for snacks and internet service, and they depend on family members to deposit money in their accounts. Technology that's familiar to us today, AI, algorithms, augmented reality and facial recognition, all feature in the novel. Americans who in real life are suspicious of the deep state accept surveillance in Ms. Lalami's story because a gunman shot 86 people at the Super Bowl as millions watched the atrocity live.

16:23So tracking and data mining for the sake of crime fighting became socially acceptable. all. Retention is supposed to be a humane tool for reducing violence because it's saving American communities, the trauma of crime, and the cost of prosecuting it. But from Sarah's perspective, there's nothing humane at all about the system as it has arisen. And there's no mention of what society gives up in personal liberty and free thinking in the name of progress. Dystopian fiction has been booming. Five classic novels, including George Orwell's 1984 and Ray Bradbury's Fahrenheit 451, saw a boost in sales after Donald Trump's inauguration in January.

17:09Why is dystopian fiction so appealing? It certainly can provide an escape during dark times, and it also is surprisingly reassuring because it reminds us that things aren't quite as bad in real life as they are in the fictional world or as bad as they could be. You see an interest not just in fiction, but also in television. A new season of The Handmaid's Tale is returning for season six. The TV show is going much longer than Margaret Atwood's famous novel has gone, which shows that viewers' and readers' appetites are insatiable for this sort of fodder. But writing dystopian fiction is not for the faint of heart.

17:51So many scenarios have already been imagined. Others can feel unimaginatively real and close to our world today. Ms. Lalami explores themes that authors before her have already artfully unpacked. But still, readers will want to check out the Dream Hotel and also be grateful that they never have to check in.

18:24That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.