Colour visions: a German-election lookahead

0:28The Economist reports that although attitudes are slow to change among the country's elite, popular outrage about assault is rising.

0:40And I take a little trip to a vanishing slice of London life, the pie and mash shop. We ask why this cheap but calorific meal is harder and harder to find, and try something called liquor that isn't.

1:02First up, though.

1:07It's the last week before Germany's federal election and the parties are making their last-ditch pitches. On both Sunday and Monday, the top four party leaders went head-to-head to head-to-head in TV debates.

1:31Alisa Weidel, who heads the hard-right Alternative for Germany or AfD Party, has been sticking to her usual talking points, banishing criminal migrants and closing borders.

1:50Robert Habeck, the Green Party, called out Donald Trump and Elon Musk, allied to extend the boundaries of power.

2:07Chancellor Olaf Scholz of the Social Democrats also lamented America's rhetorical meddling and backing of the AfD. All the while Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democrats, Angela Merkel's erstwhile party, has looked confident. He should be comfortably at the top of the polls. But even if the CDU comes out on top, In Germany, it's the little differences and the little parties that can decide what kind of government shakes out. Almost every night on German TV, we see the leading candidates in the election debating. Tom Nuttall is our Berlin bureau chief. But there's no real record of televised debates doing much to move the needle in German elections.

2:49It's not happening this time around. And actually, this time, the thing to pay attention to is what's happening with three smaller parties. none of which are represented in these debates, that could have a far more crucial impact on the outcome of the election. Why is that, that the three smaller parties' performance has such an outside influence? It's basically to do with the way that elections work in Germany and the fragmentation of the system here. It's a proportional system, so parties' representation in the Bundestag is directly proportional to the number of votes that they receive. And the second thing to bear in mind, a particular feature of the German system, is that to win representation in the parliament, a party needs to get 5 % of the vote nationwide.

3:37If it falls below that, with one or two exceptions, it doesn't enter parliament at all. And what's really interesting about this election is that you've got three smaller parties, the Free Democrats, which is a pro-business group that was in government until a few months ago. Die Linke, which is a hard left party. and a new party, the Bundanist-Sara-Wagenknecht alliance, which broke away from Die Linke last year and is focusing on opposition to German support for the war in Ukraine. All three of these parties are hovering close to that 5 % threshold and how many of them make it into parliament will have big implications for the distribution of seats amongst those bigger parties and therefore what sort of majority coalition can be formed after that election.

4:23But in the run-up to this, so much of the discussion has been around the AFD and how well it's going to perform. How does that figure into things from this vantage? Yeah, that basically makes it that much more complicated. So current polling puts the AFD on around 20-21%. Now, because no other party will work with the AFD, there's a so-called firewall, Brandenbauer, around the AFD, that kind of squeezes the space available to form a majority coalition. So 50 % of the seats have to be secured from 80 % of the seats available in parliament rather than 100 % because 20 % of them have gone to the AFD.

5:04So that makes it that much more complicated to form a coalition. And you can think of it like this. Anything between four and seven parties are likely to enter the Bundestag after Sunday. If only four parties make it, the four big ones, then it should be pretty straightforward to have a two-party coalition. If all seven make it in, then you're almost certainly looking at a three-party coalition. And that is something that everybody wants to avoid. It makes coalition management much more difficult, much more difficult to take the hard decisions that the next German government is going to have to take.

5:38And I suppose it's not like the complete combinatorics here. There are some coalitions, some groupings that are likelier than others. I mean, walk me through what seems most probable? To simplify it a little bit, it's almost certain that the election will be won by the Christian Democrats and their Bavarian sister party. Their candidate is Frigik Metz. Unless something goes very, very wrong, he is going to be Germany's next chancellor. So who would be the coalition partner? Well, if they only need one coalition partner, then he may have a choice between the social Democrats, who currently lead the minority government or the Greens, who are the junior partner in that minority government.

6:18Mr. Merz would like to have a choice, of course. That enables him to play off one partner against another. He may not have a choice. The only viable two-party coalition may be with the Social Democrats, the so-called Grand Coalition. That's the outcome that people think is the most likely. If there is no possibility of forming a two-party coalition, then we get into three-party territory, this territory that almost everybody wants to avoid, most likely outcome is that he would simply go with both of those parties, the Social Democrats and the Greens. And this would be a so called Kenya coalition, the colours of the parties match the colours of the Kenyan flag.

6:54And then there's a tail small possibility that if the Free Democrats make it in one of these smaller parties we were talking about, you can have a three party coalition that include that Party. This would be a so-called Jamaica coalition of the Union, the FDP and the Greens, or a so-called Germany coalition, which excludes the Greens. So it's pretty sort of mind-boggling stuff. But I think the crucial question is, will Fridjic Metz be able to form a government with just one other party or will he need two? That's the thing to really watch. And that's why that question of how many of the small parties makes it into parliament is so important.

7:31Well, you have to keep track not only of the party's colours, but the world flags as well to keep track of all of this. I mean, as this plays out, is this knife-edge stuff? Are there things that could tip things one way or another in the last few days? Probably not. One of the interesting things that has happened in the course of the campaign is this really unexpected surge for Die Linke, the hard left party. It's really just a phenomenon of the last two or three weeks. It surged from around 3-4 % of the vote to around double that. Lots of speculation as to why this might be. I think that probably the best explanation is that a couple of weeks ago, Frisik Merz, the CDU leader, embarked on this very risky gambit of pushing through some anti-migration resolutions in Parliament.

8:16And he did it with the votes of the AFD, which lots of people were shocked by. They saw that as a violation of a German taboo. and that moment seems to roughly coincide with the moment at which Die Linke starts to pile on votes. For people who really really detest the AFD and there are lots of them in Germany, people who are outraged by what Frigik Metz did, at least some of them seem to have been persuaded by the arguments of Die Linke which is why according to our forecast model Die Linke has a 19 out of 20 chance of making it into parliament, which even just a month or two ago, I think most people would have said was highly unlikely.

8:58But outside of Germany, one of the big news lines about Germany's election was what Vice President J.D. Vance said about the AFD. I mean, that is not having any bearing here? Yeah, the Munich Security Conference, J.D. Vance shocked everybody one week before the election, in effect, giving what lots of people interpreted as an AFD campaign speech. Shutting people out of the political process protects nothing. In fact, it is the most surefire way to destroy democracy. There's no room for firewalls. You either uphold the principle or you don't. Two things to say about that. One is that there's no real sign that it's had much impact on the polls either way, just as when Elon Musk endorsed the AFD.

9:43The second thing to say is that while the main candidates in the election are all having at it at their televised debates every night, their shared revulsion at J.D. Vance's comments is basically one of the few things that unites them as we head towards polling day. So that may not have been J.D. Vance's intention, but that has certainly been the outcome. Now, Tom, I don't know if you're a betting man, but if you are, if you were, where would you put your money? Friedrich Merz is going to be Germany's next chancellor, and he'll be leading a grand coalition with the Social Democrats. The negotiations will be very painful, very wrenching, may take a while, but Germany will get there in the end.

10:22Thank you for getting your crystal ball out, Tom, and for your time. Thanks, Jason.

10:37Last year, I traveled to South Korea to report an episode of The Weekend Intelligence about the feminist movement there. I explored how women were pushing for change

10:50and how they faced an intense backlash in a patriarchal country slow to shift its attitudes. Moe Kaida writes about Japan. But whereas South Korea had its Me Too revolution, where I live in Japan, that's not the case. Now, though, things might be changing. Japan's entertainment industry is in a big crisis at the moment. So late last year, there were newspaper reports that came out accusing Nakai Masahiro, who's a very popular TV presenter who used to be in a popular boy band called SMAP, that he had sexually assaulted a female newsreader. and Nakai admitted that he'd reached an out-of-court settlement with the woman but the public outrage continued to grow and he even had to resign from all his shows.

11:39The response to the incident has been very strong so even after Nakai stepped down the rage continued to grow and Fuji TV which is the employer of the female victim became a target as well. Over 70 sponsors have pulled out commercials from Fiji TV, and two of their executives had to step down. This isn't just an isolated incident. There has been a lot of high-profile scandals like this in the Japanese entertainment industry recently, and the fire is spreading outside of pop culture as well. Morika, Japan is pretty late to the Me Too movement. Why is it happening now? So the common perception is that Japan has not had a Me Too moment in the past, that the movement has been virtually absent.

12:27And I think it's true there hasn't been mass street demos or viral hashtags. But when I speak to feminist activists and scholars, a lot of people argue that there actually has been a very quiet but persistent movement and that the momentum in Japan has been building up slowly. There has been a few famous Me Too cases. The most notable one is Itoshiori, who's a freelance journalist. And in 2017, she accused a very famous reporter and the biographer of then Prime Minister Abe Shinzo of rape. Her criminal case was dismissed, but she eventually did win damages in a civil lawsuit. I'm scared, but all I want to do is talk about the truth.

13:13Itoshiri's also made a very powerful documentary called Black Box Diaries, which chronicles this whole experience. And the film has been critically acclaimed. It received multiple awards abroad, and it even became the first Japanese documentary to be nominated for an Oscar. But the response in Japan has been quite telling. Despite the high praise abroad, the film doesn't even have a release date in Japan. It's been quite difficult to tell my own story from Japan. Her case sparked conversations in a country where it's very hard for victims to speak up So only about 5-10 % of rape victims go to the police in Japan Compared to around a quarter in America You say that there has been a quiet and persistent movement developing Have there actually been other changes in the country in that time Since the movement started gaining some traction?

14:04So there has been some improvements over the years So in 2023, there were several legal updates, which include raising the age of consent from 13 to 16, which is a very overdue, but a very important change. And lawmakers also expanded the definition of rape. So previously, the definition of rape required that physical force was used, but they expanded the definition to encompass non-consensual sex more broadly. I think despite these legal updates, there are many cultural problems as well. and the issues in the TV industry run very deep. Morika, this all sounds incredibly shocking to me. What's your experience as a Japanese woman?

14:48It's very surprising and quite encouraging to see women speak up about these abuses by powerful men. But something that I deeply care about is the way women are treated in the media and the entertainment industry. So I grew up watching Japanese TV, but I always noticed growing up how women are trivialized on the screen. So something that still remains in Japanese culture is this culture of calling Japanese news presenters joshiana, which literally means girl announcers. And that's a label that prizes their youth and appearances. And a lot of these women tend to get plucked from university beauty contests.

15:29And it's very sad for me to see that this is something that still is the case in 2025. And it's not just the media, but change tends to be very slow in Japan. And especially if you look at the leadership in institutions, you can see that it takes a lot of time to change. So, for instance, I attended a press conference by Fuji TV regarding the scandal.

15:55All of the speakers there were these old men, and you can see even though they're apologizing, they're not genuinely reflecting on the mistake, and they can't see what exactly the problem was. And two of their executives stepped down. They brought in this new CEO, but that's also another old man. So looking at these institutions, I feel like it takes a lot of time for Japan to change. But it's very encouraging to see the public outrage and the way sponsors have yet to return to Fuji TV and people are continuing to demand for change. So I think change at the top still takes time, but society's tolerance for powerful men abusing their power is eroding.

16:38Mareka, thank you so much. Always fascinating to talk to you. Thank you.

16:54Right, what are we going to go for? Well, I have to go classic. Traditional pie, one portion of mash because I don't have grand ambitions. Liquor, eels, I'd take hot, not jellied. And then I've got to get the liquor and dress it up with some vinegar. Some pie mash shots scrape the mash around the sides. We used to do that, but now we use scoops because we feel that we can portion it out a bit better than that. Okay, so the eels, you can see, really nice pieces. The bone is in the centre. Okay. I gave you all nice middle pieces as well. Like the horseshoes, they call them the middle bits. Nice.

17:30Can I order a sticky toffee pudding as well, please? Yeah. It's 10 in the morning. Hi there, my name's Geoff Goddard. I'm one of the family members which help run my business, which is Goddard's at Greenwich, which is a traditional pie mash business that's been established since 1890. and I'm currently the fourth generation. The traditional pie and mash shops, which were originally in the East End, a lot of them have gone because the demographic in the East End has changed. A lot of the supposed East End, as I'm saying, but in commas, the older ones have moved out to Essex and into Kent. And it just doesn't seem to be the need for that type of food.

18:09So a lot of the original ones have closed. Fortunately, we're still going. So originally it would be just the traditional beef pie and mash. and then people would have either eels with it or eels on the side that were called down, jellied eels. But now, over the years, we introduce different flavours. Certain customers are vegans, vegetarians. So we do chicken pies, we do steak pies. I mean, currently the special, we've got a vegan option, which is a Tuscan bean pie. We've even got a gluten-free pie now. I've been here for recently past 25 years. I've tried lots of British things, orc pies and toad in the hole and all, whelks and cockles, what have you.

18:45I have never had an eel here, and I've never had a pie and mash in a shop like yours. Okay. Well, you're going to be in for a treat then?

19:01I've only ever had smoked eel before, never like this. I mean, pretty fishy, but nice. When do you get your lunch? I'm just about to have some now, actually. I do love the pies, but I... I have to be careful. I can't be eating them every day, unfortunately. Someone at some point would say, who ate all the pies? You've been to enough football matches to know that then, have you? Pie mass shops are eateries that are a bit of Cockney culture that have existed since Victorian times. Charlotte Kilpatrick writes about Britain for The Economist. These are historic shops, but they are disappearing from high streets across London.

19:39Some of these shops serve stewed and jellied eels. That is because once upon a time, there were eels in the Thames. So the tradition has kept on and many of these shops still sell eels. But there's not, from what you were saying, quite so many of them left. There are not. So there used to be 300 in the mid-19th century. When you leave your office, you go out to lunch and you see an array of standardized fast food chains. That's kind of what pie and mash shops were. They were ubiquitous. Everyone knew how to recognize them. But now, due to high property prices, which have moved the Cockney population further into Kent and Essex, the people who used to frequent these shops have moved out of the city.

20:21And also, like shopkeepers everywhere, they are facing high rents. An additional concern for them is changing tastes. Not that many people are familiar with jellied eels. And when they think of pie, they usually think of the round, thick crust variety you would get at a soccer stadium or at a pub. Well, we went down to Goddard's in Greenwich, which was reasonably busy even at 10. The owner said business is pretty good, actually. Tell us about the other side of the story, the many shops that have had to close. A week before the shop closed, I visited the Manzies on Deptford High Street in London.

20:58and I got there at 10.30 a.m. and the line was already halfway down the block. I did take the opportunity to speak to a few people who were queuing for one of the last pies and they had lots of stories to tell about visiting the shop over the last few decades. One gentleman I spoke to in his mid-70s, he's been going there since he was five years old. It's one of the first meals he remembers having and he went there with his dad and his grandparents and his aunt and uncles. And another lady I spoke to said that she drove all the way in from Kent, which is a neighboring county, at 10 a.m. to get one of the last remaining pies.

21:31So it shows that the shop holds a special place in many people's hearts, and it's not closing due to lack of popularity, but because the owner is retiring and none of the members of his family can take over from him. Thanks, Charlotte. Thank you. I have surprised myself by actually finishing my portion of pie and mash and eels, and you have kindly offered me a bite of your sticky toffee pudding, which is my favorite British dessert. And remains my favorite British dessert. Could have done it a little more toffee sauce myself. It's because I ate all of it. Did you ask for it extra dry? No, I just ate all of it.

22:10Oh, I see.

22:19That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

22:27Thank you.

22:56.