Hungary for change? A challenger to Orban

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1:05The Economist

1:13Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

1:17Rosie Blau: And I'm Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

1:27In pre-colonial times, the real kings of South and Central America were the jaguars. Today, they're ever more confined to disconnected patches of land. We examine a promising set of policies that might at last halt the loss of the big cat's range.

1:45Rosie Blau: And more saints have been canonized in the past 40 years than in the previous 400. Our correspondent explains why the number is climbing towards heaven.

2:04Rosie Blau: But first...

2:13On a chilly day in late March, I took a train from Budapest down to a small Hungarian city called Hodmejo Vasarely, which is near the border with Serbia.

2:24Rosie Blau: Matt Steinglass is our Europe editor. I was there to watch a very important man make a speech. There were thousands of residents packed into the city's center, which is a beautiful, sort of quaint Habsburg-era central square. And they were down there to hear the same man. Peter Magyar. Peter Magyar is the leader of a center-right political party in Hungary called Tisa. There is a general election coming up on April 12th. And Magyar is giving his speech with small variations for local towns over and over and over again at four or five rallies every day. Magyar's campaign is very social media savvy.

3:09and at the beginning of the rally, before he showed up, organizers sent a video team up on the stage to prompt the crowd to chant, Arad a Tisa! Arad a Tisa! Arad a Tisa! Which means the Tisa will flood. That's a pun on the party's name, which refers to the nearby Tisa River, but the name also stands for Tistelet es Sabadzag, respect and freedom. Magyar probably poses the most serious threat of any candidate so far to the country's authoritarian prime minister, Viktor Orban, and his party, Fidesz, who have been in power since 2010. And this election could reshape not just Hungary, but European politics and populist strategies all over the world.

3:58Rosie Blau: Okay, Matt, let's start with Petr Magyar. Who is he and where did he come from? Petr Magyar is 45 years old. He is a former member of Fidesz. He has a sharp sense of humor. He has a terrific flair for social media. He has a big stage presence, and he has a huge ego. He's occupied various positions for the party, but he really came to prominence in early 2024 when he abruptly defected from the party and started posting videos on Facebook denouncing it for corruption. Magyar was married to Judith Varga, who was the ex-justice minister, and in early 2024 had been selected to lead the party's campaign for the upcoming European party elections.

4:37But around that time, they went through a divorce. So Magyar seems to have been looking to see what he could do next with his political career. And coincidentally, a scandal broke around the pardoning of the former director of a children's home. The director of the children's home had tried to cover up sexual abuse by a staff member, and people were outraged. Magyar's ex-wife signed the pardon, and Magyar used this as a launching ground for a political career. He started publishing private conversations with his ex-wife, which he had recorded without her knowledge, which she was rather upset about.

5:13And it gave people a window to the inside of Fidesz, and it was an extraordinary month or so when he broke with the party. People who had been in Hungary's opposition for a long time and who had lived through repeated defeats by Fidesz suddenly felt that there was this extraordinary, charismatic new voice who was giving them a new sense of hope. People describe it as a sort of a mass psychological phenomenon more than a political one. So Magyar took over a tiny small party, TISA, and turned it into a juggernaut. And within a few months, he won 30 % of the vote in the European parliamentary elections in 2024.

5:49Rosie Blau: So aside from highlighting the corruption of the ruling party, what does Magyar actually stand for? Malheur's own politics are somewhat vague and fluid. He's definitely center-right, and some of the people on Hungary's left find that somewhat disappointing, but they don't expect that at this stage. What they're looking for is someone who gives them a chance to unseat Viktor Orban. And it's important to understand that corruption in Hungary is not the sort of petty kind of corruption that you expect to hear about, handing over bribes to get approvals for things and that sort of thing. Hungary is a political system built on corruption.

6:23It's what political scientists call a competitive authoritarian system. And Viktor Orban has restructured the economy, restructured the government, taken over the court system, taken over most of the media, and used that to essentially seize control of the entire mechanism of political power and sort of colonize the economy. That's made it effectively impossible to unseat him without some kind of enormous wave. So when Magyar talks about corruption, what he's really talking about is the entire system of power that keeps Viktor Orban in place. Young people are particularly inspired by this message.

6:57Support for TISA among people under 30 is absolutely overwhelming, but there are people in other generations who find it equally inspiring. But the most important thing is that every other opposition group has gotten on board behind him. They have pulled their candidates out of the race and are standing aside to allow TISA a shot at knocking Viktor Orban off.

7:16Rosie Blau: So if corruption is at the center of how Orban has held power since 2010, is that at the root of why he's there still? Or does he also hold appeal to the people of Hungary? Viktor Orban is an incredibly talented politician. He initially came to fore as a leader of anti-communist demonstrations back in 1989 during the overthrow of the socialist government. For a long time, he was basically a center-right liberal politician. But he had a kind of Damascus moment in the 2000s after losing an election where he realized that the center of Hungarian politics was really on the right, traditional, conservative.

7:57So he reoriented his ideological platform to be more conservative Christian, the sort of populist, nationalist, anti-Brussels message. He was an early adopter, let's say, of that kind of message. For a lot of people, that does resonate. They're very anti-immigrant. So the 2015-16 migration crisis in Europe was a godsend for Orban. He was the first European leader to say, we're going to put up fences, we're not going to let people in. In poor areas, there's very little access to outside information. Hungary has the lowest rate of fluency in foreign languages of any country in Europe. That makes it harder to get access to outside information flows, outside news.

8:36and Orban, on taking power in 2010, immediately took over the national media, turned it into a propaganda outlet for his party. He used complicated legal strategies to reorganize the courts. Orban is also very effective at throwing around money to try to court voters, partly by raising pension payouts, more importantly by exempting mothers of three or more children and soon two or more children from income taxes for the rest of their life in order to try to raise the birth rate. That doesn't work, but it's an interesting electoral strategy. And from the beginning of the war in Ukraine, he has presented himself as the so-called peace candidate.

9:17He's not going to let Hungary get involved in that war by being too friendly to Ukraine. The pro-Russian part of his message is not popular in Hungary, but the peace candidate part of it is.

9:28Rosie Blau: So with that kind of grip on power, then how is the opposition now gaining ground? Hungarians, they may be willing to tolerate a certain amount of corruption as long as the economy is doing well. For the last few years, the economy has not been doing well. Since the COVID epidemic, Hungary's economic performance has been worse than that of its peers in Central Europe. The GDP only grew 0.4 % last year, whereas in Poland it grew 3.6%. When people can't afford apartments, when the healthcare system deteriorates, then that anger over corruption really comes to the fore. Given that Hungary is a member of the European Union, which is supposed to guard against that kind of corruption and increasing autocracy, why hasn't the EU been able to stop Hungary descending?

10:16That's a very good question. The EU reacts very slowly, and it has very limited powers to interfere in the affairs of its nation states. The assumption always was history is moving towards democracy and liberal systems and the rule of law. We have all these ex-communist countries which have joined now, they've adopted democracy, and things are just going to keep moving forward. So there's nothing really written into the EU's treaties that makes it easy to handle situations where countries are backsliding. There's the famous Article 7, where if a country persistently defies the rule of law, then eventually, theoretically, it can be denied its vote in the European Council.

11:01But that requires a unanimous vote of every other country in the system. And because Viktor Orban always has at least one ally, including at the moment Robert Fico in Slovakia, sort of Andrei Babiš in Czech Republic, he's always going to be able to wiggle his way out of that. It took about a decade for the consensus to really build inside the EU that what we were facing with Viktor Orban was a new animal. Ultimately, starting in 2022, they began cutting off the flow of EU money to Hungary. At the moment, about 16 billion euros worth of aid has been blocked. It has dramatically slowed growth in Hungary.

11:39An economist we spoke to thinks that it's cut about a percentage point or more off of growth each year for the last few years. People are feeling it in their pocketbooks. The EU doesn't have a lot of ways to force countries to implement changes that it wants implemented.

11:54Rosie Blau: And Matt, you said that this election in Hungary could reshape European politics and popular strategies more generally. Why is that? Why is it so important beyond Hungary? Viktor Orban, for good reason, is an idol to the global nationalist conservative right. He has invented a way of turning a country from a democracy into a competitive authoritarian system without using violence, just through complicated legal mechanisms and the spreading of control through the economy and through information systems and the bureaucracy. That has been an example to MAGA in the U.S. Project 2025, which served as a blueprint for how Trump has reshaped American governance, was based in many ways on innovations that Viktor Korban came up with.

12:46There is absolutely no way to know what's going to happen on April 12th, even more so than in normal elections. Pollsters are going every which way. If he loses, then the standard bearer of this nationalist conservative movement will have suffered a defeat. And if you can have a wave election, even in Hungary, where the electoral system has been dramatically tilted in Fidesz's favor, then there's hope for doing it elsewhere too.

13:13Rosie Blau: Matt, thank you very much. Thanks, Rosie.

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14:36The Pantanal is a vast area of tropical wetlands in Brazil. It's home to a huge variety of bird life, including blue macaws, toucans, and red-necked jabilus storks. Ana Lankas is our Brazil bureau chief. And the wetlands have this permanent background hum that comes from what locals call Formula One frogs because the sound they make is so similar to a car racing around a track. But like many thousands of tourists who visit the Pantanal, I was there to see one species in particular. The jaguar.

15:18by an island of wild cashew trees i saw not one but two jaguars a mother and son feasting on the carcass of a nine-banded armadillo the male cub was almost the size of his mother and he was whining for more food and for her attention he was very needy

15:40as i approached the pair in a jeep with a guide they briefly raised their heads before getting back to their delicious lunch

15:50this was a very hopeful scene for a species that has faced centuries of persecution and tourists like me may yet help save the species and those it depends on for food

16:05So you say that you are like thousands of tourists in this regard. They are easy to spot these things? No, they're actually pretty hard to spot because they're very shy. They're very elusive creatures. And second, there's not that many of them left except in the Amazon and in Pantanal. But I went to a reserve that puts GPS tracked collars around the necks of some of the jaguars. So I was able to see them. The jaguars used to roam all around the Western Hemisphere. They ranged from New Mexico and Arizona in the United States to Patagonia all the way in Argentina in the south. And they were the undisputed apex predator of the region.

16:45Many indigenous groups considered them sacred and so they mostly left them alone. But in the past century, they faced enormous persecution. Their range has been reduced by half and half of that has happened since 2000. And so when you say they faced persecution, what do you mean? They face threats from several different angles. First, people killed them because of their skins and sold them in Europe and the US. Then there's been massive deforestation, so their habitat has just shrunk. And now there's a lot of conflict between cattle ranchers who kill jaguars for preying on their cattle. There's also wildlife traffickers, because in the early 2000s, it became harder to poach tigers in India because of restrictions.

17:27And so to feed, especially Chinese demand for tiger teeth and skulls, poachers started exporting jaguars. In Mandarin Chinese, the jaguar is just known as the American tiger. So in a sense, this is a familiar animal conservation story that's down ultimately to land use change. Yeah, that's right. And the main problem for jaguars is that they need a huge amount of land in which to roam. And what's happened with deforestation is that jaguars are now living mainly in these isolated patches of forest. And that kind of fragmentation is a problem because it leads to inbreeding. And that increases genetic diseases in jaguar populations and eventually it prompts population collapse.

18:12But how to fix that if that's just simply what the landscape now is? So because fragmentation is the main problem, lots of conservation organizations and governments are now trying to buy land to create corridors between these kind of patches of undisturbed forests where the jaguars live. So 16 Latin American countries have recently signed up to an effort to connect these different patches of land. And in September, they launched a regional plan, which basically involves adopting standardized methodologies to monitor jaguar populations and diffuse conflict with landlords. What do you mean by that?

18:45So one of the main reasons that jaguars are persecuted today is because landowners kill them out of fear or in retaliation for them preying on their cattle or for whatever reason. There are different ways to prevent landowners from killing jaguars. One is you can have remuneration schemes for farmers who lose cows to jaguars, but those can be very hard to run. An easier solution is basically teaching people how to coexist with the jaguar and defend their flock more efficiently. So I spoke with Yara Baros, who runs a jaguar conservation unit in one of the national parks in southern Brazil. It's the park that houses the Iguazu Falls on the border with Argentina and Paraguay.

19:25So in 1990, that park had around 800 jaguars, which is a really big number. But by 2005, there were only 40, mainly because of conflict with people and habitat destruction. So Yara's organization visited thousands of farms and schools, basically to teach locals how to deal with jaguars. And it's very practical stuff. So her organization put electric fences around farmland, helped make chicken coop secure, advised ranchers not to leave like cow carcasses lying around and told them that when they see a jaguar, don't shoot, speak loudly and hold a torch or some sort of light because then the jaguars themselves run away.

20:04So when these kinds of steps were instituted, jaguar shootings plummeted. And today there's more than 100 in the park. And so in a lot of these conservation cases, though, tourism is also part of the solution here. Is that the case for the jaguars? Yeah, definitely. Tourism can basically help foot the bill from cow losses. In the mid-2000s, tourists began paying guides to take them out in boats to spot the jaguars, because jaguars like to hang out in water. And wildlife charities taught locals how to collect data for scientists. So one conservationist told me that the sons of the cowboys started realizing there was more value in keeping a jaguar alive than dead.

20:43I read a report, for example, from 2017 in which researchers found that jaguar tourism netted the area's guest houses almost$7 million in annual revenues, while a tax on cattle cost just$120 ,000 a year. So it sounds as if you're presenting lots of reasons for hope for the future populations of jaguars. I am more hopeful. I mean, getting conservation right is much trickier than it sounds. You need governments to support the creation of these corridors of land. You need wildlife charities to teach locals how to do conservation right. And you need market forces to attract tourists to foot the bill for a lot of this stuff.

21:20I think that that is slowly happening and it's totally worth it. I can tell you from my visit that there's no jaguar like a living, breathing, skull crushing one. Anna, thanks very much for joining us Thanks Jason for having me

21:49Last month I travelled to Assisi in central Italy Catherine Nixie is a culture correspondent And there I went to one of its churches. Inside, a line of people was forming. The atmosphere was reverential. In silence and in coats, the queue shuffled forwards. They snaked between ribboned posts, a bit like a kind of popish passport queue. The line I was looking at had the processing power of a passport queue as well. 1 ,500 people passed through in an hour. 11 ,000 people went through on a weekday. Almost 20 ,000 went through on a weekend. And, as in a passport queue, at the front they were met by a forbidding person behind plexiglass.

22:34In this case, it was the skeletal remains of St. Francis of Assisi.

22:42The friars of St. Francis had done this to mark the 800th anniversary of St. Francis' death. This was the first time that they had ever been put on prolonged public show. And they did it in part because St. Francis is so popular. Few of Catholicism's 10 ,000 or so saints have weathered the centuries so well. Saint Polycarp, who was first a martyr to the Romans and then to really quite a silly name, is rarely remembered today. Saint Fyreca, patron saint of haemorrhoids, has similarly fallen out of fashion. Saint Francis, by contrast, is thriving. Films are made about him. The last pope was named after him.

23:19Environmentalists adore him. Inasmuch as a medieval skeleton can be modish, Saint Francis is.

23:29More saints have been canonized in the past 40 years than in the previous 400 put together. In 2013 alone, Pope Francis canonized 813 saints in one go. This isn't to say that Europe is in the grip of a religious revival. And it is worth treating all saintly numbers with caution. Only God, it has been said, knows how many saints there are. And his data are not currently publicly available. In biblical times, the word saint simply meant holy, and the bar to achieving that status was low. It basically just meant Christian. Then there was a raising of the bar, so that by the 4th century, there were two main ways you could become a saint.

24:06By dying a very bad death, or living a very good life. Neither of which were much fun. The good life involved a lot of bad things, like lentils, lepers, desert living. A bad death was brisker, but bloodier. St. Lawrence was roasted on a gridiron. He famously said, turn me over, I'm done on that side. And yes, now St. Lawrence is the patron saint of barbecues. Whereas St. Sebastian was shot with arrows, then clubbed to death. St. Francis had a good life. There were lots of lepers. And a bad death. There were lots of red-hot pokers, thanks to doctors' treatments. St. Francis was primed for popularity from the off.

24:51But that isn't the whole story with saints. What really makes a saint sing is not just how they endure the miseries of their own life, but how they can intervene in the miseries of yours, a process that's known as intercession. To understand saints, in fact to understand Catholicism itself, just look at a list of their areas of intercessionary expertise. You can get these in lists. Look up the letter A and you will be offered animals, who is St. Francis, appendicitis, that is looked after by St. Erasmus, and archers, who are suitably, if a little insensitively, looked after by St. Sebastian. What you are looking at in these lists is an index of anxiety.

25:29It's an attempt to control the uncontrollable. What you're looking at, in short, is Catholicism categorized. These lists show the centuries of Catholicism spread out before you.

25:45These lists can feel almost comic. S offers in quick succession sexual temptation sheds and sheep. Presumably not altogether. At other times they feel closer to tragedy. C offers children, sick, conorah and coffin bearers. At the turn of the first millennium, the church started to get the power of canonization. Since then, it's heightened its control over it. Today, saint-making is quite a bureaucratic project. One of the reasons that the numbers of saints has gone up is that Pope John Paul II streamlined the process. The bump of saints in 2013 was largely due to a backlog of 800 martyrs from the 15th century.

26:25And you can see that it's also political. Italy still provides most of the chosen ones. Of the 912 saints canonized in the past 40 years, 273 are Italian. God moves in a mysterious way, but he appears not to move very far. Popes who have a zeal for canonization are like presidents who issue a lot of pardons. They do it, in part, because they can. Saints offer them a legacy of sorts. Back in Assisi, some visitors peered at St. Francis and whispered. Others kissed the plexiglass. After they moved on, a worker appeared and discreetly squirted disinfectant on the case The event was strange, it was an odd blend of the sacred and the mundane of sanctity and modernity, of suffering and redemption of a centuries-old saint and 21st century cleaning products It was, in short, Catholicism

27:34Rosie Blau: That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. See you back here tomorrow.

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