In arms’ way: Gaza-deal sticking points

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1:05The Economist

1:12Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer.

1:21Today on the show, the small business entrepreneurship boom in America and why radio remains so popular in Africa.

1:36But first...

1:44Day after day, news from Gaza brings the same message. Israel is carrying out strikes and Palestinians are dying. Only the number changes. It's not what you might have expected if you took President Donald Trump's announcement from last Thursday at face value.

2:01Anshel Pfeffer: It's a great breakthrough. Nobody's ever thought that would be possible, to disarm Hamas. That shows you how much success we're having with Iran. Hamas would lay down its arms in Gaza and Israeli forces would withdraw, as simple and as synchronized as that, exactly what had been laid out by the Board of Peace that Mr. Trump assembled in January. By yesterday, the board was doing the repetitive but necessary business of walking back a Trump promise. Well, we know that there is an agreement between Hamas and the Board of Peace and between the Board of Peace and Israel, which is supposed to set out a timetable for both the disarmament of Hamas and the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Gaza.

2:51Anshel Pfeffer: Anshul Pfeffer is our Israel correspondent. In reality, both sides seem deeply skeptical and are basically waiting for the other side to screw it up. And before we get into what it is that would screw it up, let's talk about what things are like in Gaza at the moment. What is the situation on the ground? Roughly 2.1 million Gazans are now clustered in around a third of the Gaza Strip territory. territory. Around three quarters of them are displaced. That means that either their previous homes are in the area under Israeli occupation or the homes have been destroyed and they're in temporary housing.

3:32Anshel Pfeffer: In the nearly 10 months since the ceasefire, what was officially a ceasefire, was announced, over 1 ,200 have been killed in Gaza by Israeli strikes. And who is in control? Who's actually running things and how much of things are they running? Well, currently there are three forces inside Gaza. There's the Israeli army, which occupies about two-thirds of the territory. The remaining third is under Hamas control. And even though Hamas said a couple of months ago that they're relinquishing control of civilian affairs in Gaza, from all accounts they're still very much in control of what's happening there in the third of the territory.

4:15Anshel Pfeffer: They rule. There are also a number of militias or gangs sponsored by Israel which are in charge of some small enclaves, and that makes the whole line between Israel and the rest of Gaza quite blurred. And that's one of the things that they're trying to work out now is where exactly Israel will withdraw to in the interim period. And as you say, it's 10 months on since a deal that was to end the conflict. Doesn't sound as if it's ended. Well, when Donald Trump announced his 20-point plan 10 months ago, it was already clear then that while those points did, in principle, lead to an end to the war, to the withdrawal of the Israelis, to disarmament of Hamas and to the reconstruction of Gaza, there were a lot of details that needed to be filled in.

5:09Anshel Pfeffer: It wasn't at all clear who would be implementing all this. And it wasn't at all clear whether Hamas or Israel would actually agree to it, even though they agreed in principle to the 20-point plan. It's something we've talked a lot on the show about, the nature of the deals that the Trump administration strikes being sort of sketchy at best. But what we've heard most recently is that Hamas has agreed to disarm. It's not as simple as that, though, is it? No, it's not as simple as that. For a start, it isn't quite clear what the sequencing of this will be. Which arms does Hamas divest themselves of?

5:45Anshel Pfeffer: Who will take over those arms? Will they be stored in Gaza? Will they be destroyed? Will they be taken elsewhere? Hamas has since pushed back and said that any arms that it gives up will not be taken out of Gaza and will only be kept in storage by a Palestinian administration there in Gaza. Israel at the same time has said that it won't withdraw from any part of Gaza that it currently controls unless Hamas first disarms completely. Obviously, Hamas wants Israel first to withdraw, and then it will start disarming. So these issues of the sequence of how it's going to happen are still very much up in the air.

6:23Anshel Pfeffer: The Board of Peace, which has been in charge of negotiating these deals, said that there is a timetable. We're yet to see it. The head of the Board of Peace, Nikolai Mladenov, was here in Israel yesterday meeting with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. And after that meeting, there was a clarification that Israel will be required to withdraw only after Hamas ends the disarmament. So that's still very much all up in the air. But the fact that we've had this announcement suggests that something is changing. There's some momentum here. Are things materially different, do you think? Well, on the ground, nothing has changed so far.

6:57Anshel Pfeffer: Israel has continued to attack. Just on Sunday, it carried out a series of airstrikes, killing 19 people. Israel claims that they were members of Hamas and Islamic Jihad. Some of them were civilians as well. But the main questions of when Hamas will start disarming and how will Israel, if at all, withdraw and where to, they still remain unaddressed. And you've got this alphabet soup of new groups and organizations that are supposed to be taking charge in Gaza. You've got NKAD, the National Committee for Administration of Gaza, which is supposed to be the Palestinian technocratic government that's going to come in and take charge of Gaza.

7:40Anshel Pfeffer: They've been by the pool in Cairo now for nearly 10 months. The Israeli cabinet authorized last week their entrance into Gaza, but we still don't know when that's going to happen. And when it does happen, what part of Gaza will they be in charge of? What will their powers be? They're supposed to have some kind of a new policing force. Where are those police officers going to come from? We've heard that they've been training in Jordan, but we still have yet to see them. Then there's the International Stabilization Force, which is a, as the name says, it's an international force of peacekeepers.

8:13Anshel Pfeffer: They are also supposed to arrive soon in Gaza, but it's a very small force, at least to begin with, only a couple of hundred personnel from Morocco and Uganda. And once again, it isn't clear where they're supposed to be deployed and what their powers are to be. And then there's the IVC, an international verification committee, who was supposed to verify Hamas's disarmament, and we still don't know who they're going to be and what their procedures are going to be. So this announcement by Donald Trump on Thursday, a great breakthrough that Israel and Hamas are very happy with, and it's going to ensure peace in Gaza and beyond, is a tad premature.

8:55But as far as Israel and Hamas themselves, you said each side is waiting for the other to screw it up. Why did you choose that framing?

9:03Anshel Pfeffer: Well, from Hamas's perspective, they're in no rush to relinquish power in Gaza, and they certainly don't want to give up on their arms. On the other hand, they are under a lot of pressure from Egypt, Qatar, Turkey, the countries which, without them, Hamas really can't operate around the region. Egypt is the way that Hamas leaders can leave Gaza and go back in again. Turkey and Qatar are Hamas's main patrons in the Arab world. And those three countries are working with the Trump administration, and they want to show that they can get some kind of progress out of Hamas. So Hamas have had no choice but to accept in principle the agreement, even though they've already pushed back on the issue of disarmament.

9:49Anshel Pfeffer: And then on the Israeli side, there's a similar dynamic. Benjamin Netanyahu is under a lot of pressure from Donald Trump. He needs to show that Trump is still on his side, that we've seen in the last few weeks, quite a bit of tension between them. So Netanyahu is facing election in 85 days. is he's behind in the polls and he needs to hold on to his coalition. Any sign that he's prepared to withdraw from Gaza will be very disruptive to his coalition, to his far-right allies. So he's keeping quiet about this so far. It doesn't sound like there is a way to resolve all of these tensions to everyone's satisfaction, clearly, or else that would have been done in the past 10 months.

10:32How do you see any real movement happening?

10:35Anshel Pfeffer: Well, diplomats I've been talking to have been involved in this say there is movement and there will be movement, but it'll be much, much slower than the announcements from Trump and from his Board of Peace would give the impression. It'll be really at a snail's pace, unlikely to see much movement before the election in Israel because Netanyahu can't pay the political price of any developments in Gaza. But there may be a window of opportunity immediately after the election. There could be a withdrawal of Israeli troops from what's called the orange line, which is the unofficial line that they currently hold, to the yellow line, which is sort of the official ceasefire lines from last October.

11:18Anshel Pfeffer: So these are very marginal changes. They could also be finally the arrival in Gaza of the technocrats, and they could start, at least they could open their office and start taking responsibility for some parts of life in Gaza, but these will be slow and very, very small steps. Anshul, thanks very much for joining us. Thanks for having me, Jason.

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12:30One version of the American dream has always been being your own boss, going all the way back to colonial days when New Yorkers borrowed the word boss from the Dutch. But for a while there, fewer and fewer Americans actually did start their own businesses. Until recently. So America's experiencing a boom in small businesses. Shira Aviglona is a business correspondent for The Economist. One way you can see that is that full-time self-employment reached its highest level this century in 2025. So about 16.8 million Americans worked full-time for themselves. And we've also seen a huge boom in the number of new business applications.

13:10And a lot of those are concentrated in things like retail, healthcare, and professional services. Okay, when did this big uptick actually start? So we first saw a huge rise in the number of new business applications during the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic. And we think a lot of that was related to either people losing their job or moving to a different place or their job changed a lot. So they decided it's time to try something different. What's amazing is that it's actually continued to be at a high level every month and, in fact, even recently surpassed some of the highs of the COVID pandemic.

13:44So Americans are still moving in droves to start their own firms, even though we're not in that unprecedented moment anymore. So what's changed then if this is not just a sort of tale of the pandemic effect? So part of this has to do with the general macroeconomic environment. For the past few years, American firms have been in a low hire, low fire environment. So they're not laying too many people off, but they're not hiring a lot of new people. Young people in particular, or people who are outside the labor market, may have seen that, you know, I don't really have a way to get in, so I might as well start my own business.

14:17And we see some evidence that a lot of these new entrepreneurs are young. Another thing is just that various changes, including ones that started during the pandemic, people might've moved somewhere else, worked remotely, then they had a return to office order and they decided I actually like living here, so I'm going to start my own business and not return to my old job. And then I think another thing is just shifting consumption patterns. Some of these businesses, especially the one in healthcare and social care, are catering to an aging population. So they might be, for example, home healthcare aides starting their own business.

14:47And another might be just the huge growth of online retail that's also part of the long tail of the pandemic. You can become a pretty successful small business owner selling pill cases or selling merch that has to do with a certain TV show. And you can find an audience online through platforms like TikTok Shop, where it's really easy for even someone with relatively few resources to reach a huge pool of consumers. Because we speak so much on the show about AI, I'm tempted to ask whether AI has anything to do with this. Yes. So I think AI may not be the reason why this started, but it's certainly a tailwind that has continued to push it higher.

15:24Many of the things that might have made it difficult to start your own business, it's hard to find an accountant or maybe expensive, you don't know how to draw up contracts, are now no longer as much of an issue. I spoke to some small business owners who said, yeah, I just use a chatbot to bounce ideas off of. They're like my co-founder. I say, are these good colors for my Pilates studio or how do I build a website? And so the share of founders who say they're using AI in surveys has really risen. And we think that that is a big reason why people who might have been on the fence now say, well, there's no reason not to.

15:58So if this is a bigger and seemingly ever-growing fraction of the economy, what are the macro effects here? So traditionally, we would have said that small businesses are the most helpful. We want them the most when they're going to be job creators. Most of this new wave are businesses that the government thinks is not likely to hire anyone, at least at first. People have AI, right? They don't need a bunch of stuff. Of course. But I think that should cause us to maybe reconsider some of those assumptions about what makes a productive business. So Sam Altman, the boss of OpenAI, has talked for a while about when will we see the first billion dollar firm that's just one person and possibly that company already exists.

16:38So hiring and payroll is not necessarily a proxy for having a successful business anymore. I guess the other thing is Americans have always loved this idea of being your own boss. But over the past century, we've seen a slow march towards working for larger firms. And this may reverse that. And people say that's what they want. Then it might lead them to have happier and more fulfilling careers. Shira, thanks very much for joining us. Thank you so much.

17:22For all the diversity across the African continent, there's one thing that's surprisingly common in the soundscapes you hear. Podcasts and music platforms and streaming video abound, but lots and lots of Africans still literally tune in to radio.

18:01Radio has done surprisingly well in Africa. You'd expect the proliferation of smartphones and social media to have really reduced listenership, but it hasn't. William Finlater writes for The Economist. Radio's advantages are clear. It's cheap. It doesn't require internet connectivity. It helps kill time and traffic jams that clog Africa's cities. And is this just a historical effect that radio has been around for a while and just simply hasn't been crowded out yet? That's certainly part of it. Broadcast towers first went up in Africa in the 1920s. They were promoted by colonial regimes because they wanted to control messaging.

18:40And it seemed like an effective way to do so. But liberation movements set up clandestine stations. And in the 1960s, post-colonial governments really started taking ownership of this radio infrastructure, started doing things like subsidizing transistor sets, state-controlled radio stations. And many of these advertised some of the grand modernist dreams of nation builders like Kenneth Counter or Kwame Nkrumah. But even in the 90s and the noughties, radio was continuing to expand across the continent. The liberalization of state controls really led to a proliferation of stations, particularly commercial.

19:28Certainly, I think that the history definitely plays a role in why there's just so many listeners today. Is that to say then that it's an older demographic that just remembers the prior eras of radio? or is it everyone? It is everyone, I think. Over half of Africans between 18 to 35 say they regularly get their news from radio, just a little less than those who cite social media as their main source. And if you look at the urban-rural divide as well, it's not that significant. Around 60 % of people in cities and the countryside still listen to radio multiple times a week, according to Afrobarometer, which is a pollster.

20:09And I think there's something very interesting potentially actually going on with the internet and radio, because rather than hurting the radio, in many cases, the internet is actually helping its stars. Big name presenters have become social media celebrities. I spoke to one in Kenya, and he brags that he makes most of his money online from brand endorsements rather than commercial deals on the radio. So that's the demand side. What about the supply? Is this just big stations getting bigger or more stations coming into the fray? There is certainly some very big stations in Africa. We can think of Joy FM in Ghana, which is a hugely important part of the news environment there.

20:53But in Africa's bigger cities, there really is an expansion in the number of stations to the point where actually the infrastructure is really starting to strain. So Kenya has more than 250 FM radio stations. And that has meant that Kenya's communication authority is facing what might seem like an odd problem in the digital age, namely that Nairobi's airwaves are clogged and it's having to look for alternatives. As in other countries, for example, Ghana and Senegal, there's a trial of DAB radio, which compresses radio waves into digital data to make room for more stations. And you said part of the growth here, the commitment here to radio has to do with more, I don't know, practical reasons, pragmatic ones.

21:39It's certainly that there's long traffic jams in Africa's megacities, and people are phoning in onto the radio just to have a chat to pass the time. At the same time, you've got other practical considerations like FM radios are often embedded into the cheapest phones and don't require pricey mobile data to listen to. I think actually when you take all this together you can really see that radio is still booming and really is adapting to the digital age in a really unique and interesting way in Africa. William thank you very much for your time. Thank you.

22:32The Intelligence We'll see you back here tomorrow

23:12We'll be right back.

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