Not so delightful: Erdogan arrests rival

0:28The Economist to deal with Donald Trump's tough talk. Our correspondent says that concessions Panama already made could have been called a win. Instead, Mr. Trump is still pushing. And I'm terrified of all snakes, let alone poisonous ones. But other people keep them as pets, and sometimes they end up getting bitten. Our correspondent meets the zookeepers who can offer them the anti-venom.

1:03But first...

1:19This is Ekrem İmamolu, the mayor of Istanbul, who was likely to be the opposition candidate at Turkey's next election.

1:33There are hundreds of police officers at our door, he said yesterday. We are up against tyranny, but I will not be discouraged.

1:48He filmed himself at home as he slowly put on a tie. Videos from outside the house showed police in riot gear. Moments later, he was arrested and taken to jail. İmamoğlu was billed as the most significant rival to Turkey's long-reigning president Recep Tayyip Erdogan. And the opposition party is now accusing Erdogan of an attempted coup. Shortly after İmamoğlu was taken to jail, the Istanbul governor announced a ban on all public gatherings and protests.

2:28Thousands of people, including students and Imamoglu supporters, were to defy that ban within hours by showing up at a rally outside the mayor's offices. Piotr Zalewski is our Turkey correspondent. Authorities also blocked access to social media platforms and closed some metro stations and roads.

2:58Imam Oluz was not the only arrest that day. Arrest warrants were issued for over 100 others, including some of the mayor's advisors, officials from his Republican People's Party, or CHP, as well as a top journalist. Most of them have now been taken to custody. In terms of the scale of the crackdown and the person at its center, meaning Imamoglu, this is a political earthquake for Turkey. Just remind me how significant a person Imamoglu is in the political spectrum. Well, Imamoglu is the opposition's rising star and someone who has managed to defeat Erdogan and his ruling party on a number of occasions.

3:46First, in 2019, when he was elected mayor of Istanbul in a rather shocking upset. And then again, in fact, in 2019, after election officials overturned Imamoglu's admittedly slim victory, only to have him come back stronger and defeat the ruling party's candidate by a much wider margin. He then prevailed in elections last year, was re-elected as Istanbul mayor by an even bigger margin, and has since emerged as the man best placed to defeat Erdogan in the coming presidential elections. It sounds like it was a very stage-managed arrest. What was the justification for it? Well, Imamola was arrested over a number of charges, and these include leading a crime organization, abetting a terrorist group, bribery, as well as rigging tenders for government work.

4:47Imamola himself and his party say the charges against them are completely political. They're not the first charges he's faced. Over the past three years, he has been investigated and indicted for a plethora of charges ranging from corruption to insulting election officials who had tried to strip him of victory in the 2019 mayoral elections. So why have they gone further this time? Why have the authorities arrested him? The suspicion is that they did so to prevent Nistri Mamoru from being anointed the opposition's candidate in the 2028 presidential elections. Now, these are set for 2028, but are likely to be forwarded by at least a year.

5:39And this coming Sunday, so four days before Mr. Imamoglu's arrest, the CHP was expected to hold a primary in which it would name officially Mr. Imamoglu as its candidate. There's also suspicion that this is an act of revenge by Erdogan and his government. Last year in local elections, Imamoglu helped hand Erdogan and his ruling party the biggest loss in over 20 years, and he has enjoyed a comfortable lead over Erdogan in the polls ever since. The opposition will say that Erdogan did not want to face the risk of running against a man who was likely to defeat him. And it seems the authorities were willing to take no chances.

6:27A day before the arrest, they had stripped Imamoglu of his university degree, which is something that a candidate needs to possess in order to run for president. Bearing this in mind, most Turks expected Imamoglu to be hauled through the courts for the foreseeable future, but very few thought that he would be packed off to jail. This was and is, for Erdogan, the nuclear option. We know that there have already been big protests against this arrest. Why does Erdogan think he can get away with it? Now, his officials sound appalled by the notion that Erdogan should be weaponizing the courts. The justice minister said that to associate judicial investigations and cases with our president is audacious and irresponsible to say the least, and that the judiciary does not take orders from anyone.

7:25Most analysts and obviously opposition people will say that is quite rich. One theory is that Erdogan has concluded that with someone like Donald Trump in power in the US, he and other strongmen enjoy impunity. Erdogan's other motive might be hope that by taking down Mr. Imamoglu, he will help destroy the electoral alliance between the CHP and Turkey's main Kurdish party. The arrest does place that party in a tough spot. The party expects Erdogan's government to respond to a ceasefire call made by the head of a Kurdish insurgent group by concessions to the country's Kurdish minority. And Erdogan may now make them an offer the Kurds cannot refuse, namely which is keep quiet or risk the fledgling peace process going up in flames.

8:24And where does all this leave Turkey? The markets, arguably one of the last remaining checks on Erdogan's power, have reacted very poorly to the arrest. Within hours, Turkey's main stock exchange had dropped by 7%, triggering a break in trading, and closed the day by 9 % down. The lira, which had recovered its footing over the past couple of years, thanks to dramatic interest rate hikes, plunged by 12 % against the dollar before recovering some of its losses. But even this, namely a market reaction, might not be enough to deter Erdogan. The CHP, Imamoglu's party, has referred to his arrest as a coup against the man they believe is poised to become Turkey's next president.

9:18In a gesture of defiance, the party announced that it would go ahead with its primary on March 23rd and invited all Turks, not just party members, to take part and elect Mr. Imamoglu as its candidate. Great to talk to you. Thank you so much. Thank you for having me.

9:52When President Trump mentioned Panama in his speech to Congress on March 4th, he had the opportunity to declare a victory. Matt Yuki writes about Latin America for The Economist and is based in Panama. Earlier that day, American investment firm BlackRock had announced an agreement to take control of two ports at either end of the Panama Canal. They have been operated by a Hong Kong-based company, C.K. Hutchinson, the loose basis of Mr. Trump's recent claims that China controlled the waterway. Mission accomplished? Not quite. Instead, in his speech, Trump continued his aggressive rhetoric. To further enhance our national security, my administration will be reclaiming the Panama Canal, and we've already started doing it.

10:38Panamanians are learning the hard way that when there are more deals to be done, Mr. Trump fights dirty. So Matt, as with so many things, Mr. Trump sees Panama as just another ongoing negotiation back and forth sort of playground. Yes, it seems that way. Trump's latest move has been to ask the Defense Department to develop options, ranging from partnership on military training to seizing the canal by force. But I think the latter is still very unlikely. At the beginning of February, Marco Rubio made his first international visit to Panama. And the impression was afterwards that resident Jose Raul Molino felt that he had done a deal with the US Secretary of State.

11:20He said the meeting had been very cordial and that there was no threat to his country's sovereignty. He also announced a new stage of relations in what he called matters very important to both countries. And what did he mean by that? What are the very important matters? I think there are three important matters at play here. The first is immigration. The second is Chinese investment around the canal and in Panama more generally. And the third is the management of the Panama Canal, particularly with relation to its water supply. Okay, well, let's take those in turn. What is the matter, as it were, with immigration?

11:57Well, for the last five years, there have been a huge amount of migrants coming mainly from South America, but also other countries and from Asia and Africa, passing through the Darien Gap, which is the jungle which separates Colombia from Panama. In 2023, over half a million people made this very dangerous trek on foot through the jungle. It's important to say that even before coming to power, President Molino, who's a very pro-US politician had committed to making progress on migration. Upon coming to power in July 2024, one of the first things he did was sign a Memorandum of Understanding with the Biden administration, which essentially rolled out barbed wire through the Darien Gap, restricted the flow through a single route.

12:45Previously, there had been many routes from the jungle. And he also agreed with the US to start deportation flights from the Darien for undocumented or people with criminal records, especially from Ecuador and Colombia. And that policy was actually very successful. By January this year, number of crossings from Colombia into Panama had dropped by 94%. After the visit of Marco Rubio, an additional agreement was struck between Panama and the US that Panama would receive third-country migrants deported from the US and also develop a detention center and expand a runway in the Darien region. So it sounds as if progress is really being made on the immigration concern, but you mentioned also Chinese investment.

13:33Yes, and Chinese investment appears to be one of the principal concerns of Marco Rubio. He said that the status quo around the canal was unacceptable. And it's broadly understood that he was referring to the Cristobal and Balboa ports at either end of the Panama Canal, owned by C.K. Hutchinson. China has now hit back at the plan to sell the ports to BlackRock, a state-run newspaper called the decision spineless. Panama changed its allegiance from Taiwan to Beijing in June 2017. And in November 2018, I remember standing in Panama City on my balcony as the streets were shut down for the visit of Xi Jinping.

14:17Around that time, there were dozens of deals struck between China and Panama for the development of all kinds of infrastructure projects, agreements for Panda bonds, denominated in Rambini, and also Air China flights to Panama. But actually, in the years that followed, very few of these projects went forward. A lot were cancelled and a lot made very little progress. So it sounds as if big concerns on immigration actually being addressed. Big concerns around Chinese investment, perhaps not as big as they might otherwise have been. What about the water management question? Is that of more substance?

14:53I think that is of more substance. One of Trump's claims was that US ships were being overcharged by the Panama Canal. And that's simply untrue. Ships are charged the same regardless of their nationality. However, since 2016, with the expansion of the canal, the new locks have allowed US LNG to be shipped from Texas through the canal and to Asia. One of the issues the canal has is that during times of drought, when the water level in Gatun Lake, which feeds the locks, falls, the number of transits through the Panama Canal becomes restricted. To deal with that problem, the Panama Canal offers the opportunity to buy a transit through the canal at auction.

15:38Now, many of these LNG carriers who have the highest overheads have been the winners of these auctions, and sometimes they've been paying up to$4 million to transit through the canal. Now, that appears to be the basis of the US Special Envoy to Latin America, Mauricio Clavacarone's claim that the canal is being mismanaged by the Panamanians. It's true that the water problems at the canal have been known for a long time. And for many years, the solution has also been known. Building a dam over the Indio River to create a new reservoir which can feed Lake Gatun, and therefore the canal and the people of Panama City and the surrounding area.

16:18But it's been stalled for decades based on environmental concerns and negotiations with the communities that live in the area that would be affected by the dam. Following his meeting with President Molino, Marco Rubio met with the administrator of the Panama Canal. In the days that followed, a communique was sent to the inhabitants of the Rio Indio area, telling them that funding had been approved for the dam. So it appears that American pressure has accelerated that process. So what has the reaction been since the Trump administration has kept the pressure up, even though to all appearances, Panama has given what has been asked of it?

17:00I think the government understands now that it needs to change its strategy regarding the way it deals with Donald Trump. President Molino is facing domestic criticism for making those concessions to America without gaining any assurances in return. Panamanians understand now that they need to take a stronger tone. They need to deal with Trump directly rather than Marco Rubio. and they also need to get on the phone to Mexico, Canada, Denmark and other countries to form some sort of united position against the threats coming from the US presidency. That's all well and good if Panama has some cards left to play.

17:41I mean, what leverage does it have in this situation? There are still cards left to play for Panama. One of the things there's been a disagreement about is whether US naval ships should be allowed to pass through the Panama Canal without paying a charge. At the moment, they have priority access. They essentially get to skip the line. The president has been very clear that the acceptance of 299 third country migrants, which took place in February, was a one-off deal. There are other Chinese investments in Panama that could come under scrutiny. What Molino needs to do is get the proper assurances, preferably from Donald Trump himself, that were they to negotiate on these topics, that the canal's fee structures and the sovereignty and ownership of the canal would remain unchanged.

18:27Matt, thanks very much for joining us. My pleasure.

18:47Now, dear loyal intelligence listeners, we have an offer for you. Economist Education, which is part of our parent company, runs a course written by our editors and journalists at The Economist on writing for business. How to write better, more clearly, and with more impact. To get your 15 % off, visit economist.com slash writing course and use the code intelligence.

19:20intelligence. This one has been recently pretty popular in the private sector. Actually, this was a confiscated animal that came to us. And there had been a few bites in the last couple of years from that species that we've actually had to send. I recently got a tour of the reptile house at the Bronx Zoo in New York. Annie Crable is one of the Economist news editors. Kevin Torigrosa, who is the zoo's curator of herpetology, so reptiles and amphibians, he showed me around to some of his favorites. So we saw a 12-foot Burmese python. The Burmese pythons have been getting a lot of notoriety recently because this is the species that's now loose in the Everglades and in South Florida.

20:04Yeah. We saw a highly venomous glowing blue pit viper. They're a really pretty species. That's that blue snake up in the back. And we saw a very thick anaconda. Next to the reticulated python here, they kind of are the neck and neck candidates for biggest snake in the world. So the reticulated python... But it was not really there to see the reptiles. I was more interested in the antivenom that works against snake bites should they happen. The zoo stores all of these antivenom in a refrigerator. They're all labeled, and this is a legacy of an accident from over 100 years ago. Annie, this sounds like my vision of absolute hell.

20:49I'm right there with you, Rosie. Tell me first about this century-old accident. In 1916, a zookeeper in the Bronx survived a rattlesnake bite with an experimental antivenom that was supplied by an expert from Brazil who happened to be traveling through New York. After that, the Bronx Zoo made it a priority to keep the kinds of antivenom on hand that work against the snakes that they keep there. But these days, for the most part, it isn't zookeepers who are using the antivenom. It's pet owners. It seems astonishing to me that people keep poisonous snakes as pets, but they don't have the antivenom on hand.

21:31Say you import a king cobra. And maybe because you're the type of person who imports a king cobra to keep as a private pet, you do not import the antivenom along with it. But the Bronx Zoo does that, as do a bunch of big accredited zoos all over the country. And so if you as a pet owner get bitten, you go to your hospital, they will call poison control and they will probably end up calling the cell phone of the closest zookeeper with that King Cobra antivenom on hand. It still sounds like a strange place to be where you've got zoos essentially providing the drugs that someone needs in hospital.

22:18How does that work? Most hospitals will stock two brands of antivenom. These are federally approved and they only work against native North American snakes. And so they're not going to be able to help you if a king cobra has bitten you. The zoos do have policies for the most part of keeping on hand antivenom that works for the snakes that they have at their zoos. they rarely have to use them for their own zookeepers, but they will provide them for these pet owners who have not gone through all the steps to think ahead. So if somebody gets bit in the middle of the night, I don't know why everyone wants to mess with venomous snakes in the middle of the night, but we always get calls at like two, three in the morning.

23:04Kevin from the Bronx Zoo told me that a lot of times they're meeting helicopters to get the antivenom where it needs to go in an urgent manner. Isn't it illegal to import that kind of venomous snake into the U.S.? There are actually no federal regulations about importing exotic animals. So it varies state by state. In Pennsylvania, to take one example, there are no licensing requirements for importing exotic snakes. So Kevin from the Bronx Zoo told me that even though they're, of course, in New York, a lot of their anti-venom ends up going to Pennsylvania. Just how many snake bites are there every year?

23:50That's probably why this really precarious system persists, is because it's not common. So only 7 ,000 to 8 ,000 Americans are treated for venomous snake bites every year. A fraction of those are for these exotic snake bites. But that's still enough to require zookeepers to help out those still thousands of people who require this exotic anti-venom. In December, for example, right before the new year, there was a state senator in New Jersey who got bitten by a rattlesnake, one of the many he stalks at his small family-owned zoo. and he was flown to the Bronx because the Jacoby Medical Center up there, largely because of its proximity to the Bronx Zoo, has the region's leading snakebite treatment center.

24:46Annie, great to talk to you. Less lovely to talk about snakes, but thank you. Thank you very much, Rosie.

25:12That's it for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

25:31Thank you.