One week in the life of Volodymyr Zelensky

0:10Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Rosie Bloor. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the event shaping your world.

0:25Defiance has many faces. One of them will be on show tonight in Odessa, Ukraine, when an orchestra will perform a show entitled Ode to Resistance. And then we step back in time to March 1945 to see how The Economist was reporting on the last year of the Second World War. The Allies were finally on the offensive in Europe and things were starting to look a little more optimistic.

1:02But first...

1:12Being a president of any country comes with challenges. But one leader has had a particularly tough week. Last Friday at the White House, Ukraine's Volodymyr Zelensky received a verbal battering. You're right now not in a very good position. You've allowed yourself to be in a very bad position and he happens to be right about it. On Tuesday, Donald Trump cut off his military support and intelligence aid. The U.S. is pausing intelligence sharing with Ukraine. The Trump administration had already announced... And though many European leaders are rallying around him... We have to put Ukraine in a position to protect itself and to push for a lasting and just peace.

1:53To do so in practical terms will require a huge increase in their defence spending. If that wasn't enough to deal with, there's the news that Trump's allies have been talking to Zelensky's Ukrainian opponents. It's certainly been a whirlwind of a week here in Ukraine. Oliver Carroll has been reporting on Ukraine since before the war broke out. I mean, I've literally been on the telephone 24-7 with people chatting, we're trying to get people to chat. But on Tuesday when the Americans cut off the intelligence, just being on the streets in Kiev and seeing the look of stunned faces and people looking at their phones, we haven't really seen that for quite a while since the first days of the war, in fact.

2:34I understand the Ukrainians are working desperately to try and recover the situation. The worry here is that whatever is happening in the meantime is creating new realities. It's a very dynamic situation. Everything seems to be on knife edge. Oli, you talk about the dynamic situation. Zelensky is under a huge amount of pressure here. Talk me through some of the challenges he's facing right now. Certainly. I mean, on the one hand, he's facing the pressure to do a good deal by Ukraine. He essentially needs to preserve his legacy, first of all, but also the sense of Ukrainian statehood. And he has Ukraine's people and his soldiers looking to him to hold the fort.

3:13On the other hand, there's this increasingly aggressive mafia style of negotiation from the United States. And then there are also domestic pressures because remember, Ukraine is a democracy still. I mean, it is in wartime. There are certain limitations on that, but Zelensky is a democratically elected leader. And there are certain political pressures here too. Increasingly, I mean, Zelensky is cutting a very lonely figure at the top. I don't think there's a lot of trust in people around him. Some may be compromised, but there's definitely differences of opinion. And Mr. Zelensky is looking at this really strange and rather peculiar alliance between MAGA and Russia, certainly on propaganda, where we see, for example, a push on Ukraine's mobilization problems, the idea that essentially Ukraine can't provide the and it needs forward.

4:03Essentially, you see the MAGA people basically retweeting, reposting everything that Russia's putting out. And then there's this focus on elections. I mean, it's very clear that Trump wants elections as a way to get rid of a difficult counterparty in Ukraine. And I was speaking to a Ukrainian source in the domestic security, and he said he was absolutely sure that there was a promise from the Americans to the Russians when they met in Saudi last month to get rid of Zelensky. And what are the prospects there, Oli? Could Ukraine hold elections? How precarious is Zelensky's internal position? I think it's important to say that since he's put this very strong, stubborn, you might say, position against America, people have rallied around the flag bearer.

4:48The public seem to like it. Anyone I speak to, certainly from ordinary people, they say this is a time to rally behind the president. I think in private, the elite is a bit more divided. they can see the problem that they have a leader who's got under the skin of the most influential man in the world. And they see that the Ukrainian's position generally has been undermined by that fracas last week. But in terms of the elections themselves, it really isn't easy to get rid of a president during the war, especially if he doesn't want to go. I mean, the first is a general understanding in the country that things will become chaotic if Zelensky was taken away.

5:21You can't do it now, at the very least. The second is there isn't actually a majority for holding elections in the public. Every poll you carry out, you'll see that something around 60 or 70 % are against the idea of elections in wartime because they see the difficulties. The third is that it's procedurally incredibly difficult. So martial law forbids elections during wartime. This is why Zelensky remains a legitimate president, even though his five years are up. So you either have to remove martial law, which means chaos, demobilization, or you amend the constitution. And that means to 300 votes.

5:55That's quite hard to get because a lot of the opposition I speak to, they want soldiers on the ballot papers, for example. You need a demobilization for that. So that becomes very difficult. Now, I know that there have been discussions behind closed doors with the election bodies and certainly there's a certain mobilization just in case that has to happen, but it won't be quick. Whatever Trump wants, they won't let a non-constitutional vote in. But yes, you do get this real sense of high tension in the air. And you see it in the most unexpected of places. I mean, in theatres, for example, you see Shakespearean tragedy making a return.

6:30Macbeth, Richard III, they're both heavy with these motifs of treachery. And on the TV in the last week or so, we've had Golda and Darkest Hour, two films where great leaders push back against American attempts to enforce a bad deal. So that's the sort of background you're seeing here, even in the most unusual places. So we've got a precarious position internally and then externally, the situation is extraordinary and extremely volatile. So what happens next? My understanding is that despite the rhetoric, both teams, American and Ukrainians, are working hard on a deal. What exactly that deal will be, I think we'll know next week.

7:12Certainly from my conversations with various sources, and they weren't able to give the full detail for obvious reasons, I understood it to be an expanded minerals deal and a ceasefire of some kind. So Zelensky offered a limited ceasefire. America wants a full ceasefire, we know that. But I also understand from conversations, again, in private, that there isn't a belief, even among Ukrainian top table, that the US wants to leave Ukraine completely, I mean, let alone Europe. What they're trying to do, they think, is trying to get Europe to pay more for the weapons. And one source I spoke to just yesterday said that in some respects, they were expecting this kind of hardballed, aggressive tactic and levers against Ukraine.

7:53Just it wasn't very clear what levers were being used against Russia, they said. And just yesterday, Mr. Trump said he apparently knew where Russia's vulnerability was, and only he, of course, knew it. Russia wants a deal, he said, because only I know they have no choice. But as I said, Putin doesn't seem to be offering anything. So far, Ukraine's been disappointed that with the rhetoric and behavior of the White House, it hasn't been mirrored with Russia, but it is waiting to see what the end game is. And I think we'll see much more in the next week. And what happens if Trump doesn't get his way?

8:26Well, I think that's when the games will really begin. Trump has shown himself to be very ruthless and they've shown that they're ready to use all kinds of methods. One thing I know that people in government were very worried about at the beginning of the week was that the Americans might use personal sanctions, for example, against the top leadership. But if I was a betting man, I think I'd look at what the White House might try to do in parliament because Ukraine is a presidential parliamentary republic. At the moment, Zelensky has a notional majority, but it's very situational. And if the Americans wanted to, they might try and move that situational majority.

9:03And we already know that the White House is meeting with the opposition. I suppose one thing we should bear in mind, Mr. Zelensky, he's a man who was born in Krivirik, which is a city which was renowned for its mafia gangs and its harsh street battles in the 1990s. He probably thinks he's seen some of this before. In fact, I think both sides are seeing geopolitics through their own personal limited experience. I mean, Zelensky in this respect, and Trump through his art of the real estate deal. The problem is the stakes are much, much higher. And maybe the hyenas of the White House are even more ruthless than the gangsters of Krividig.

9:40Oli, thank you so much. It's great chatting with you.

10:03Defiance has come in a lot of forms in this war for Ukrainians, but regardless, they just refuse to stop fighting. They refuse to stop living. And in Odessa this week, the southern port city, I did see that morale on show, and this time for me it took a musical form. Sarah Larniuk is an audio correspondent for The Economist. So I was standing outside of Odessa's gorgeous opera house this week, just to do a bit of a pulse check, get a sense of what people are thinking, what people are feeling. And I met this man who was wearing military fatigues, and as I approached him, his first question to me was pretty interesting.

10:46You're from the United States? I'm from Canada. Ah, from Canada, good. Friend, Canada. So after we ascertained that I am not, in fact, American, Serhiy Likamanenko talked about the difficult week that it has been in Ukraine. So what did he have to say, Sarah? This was always kind of the expectation that one day they would lose the support of the Americans. They were surprised, I think, that they held on as long as they did. And yet the defiance is still there. The fight is still there. And as I got talking to Serhi, he actually introduced me to the friend he was standing with, who had this glorious mane of silver hair and who is Italian, actually.

11:33His name was Gabriel De Niro. And I realized that they were in Odessa just for this week. Gabriel from Italy and Serhi from the frontline cities where he serves, Kramatorsk and other communities in Donetsk with the 5th Assault Brigade. And they were here to perform an orchestral performance called An Ode to Resilience happening tonight. So does that mean you're going to a concert tonight? Yeah, and maybe it is a bit off point, Rosie, to go and do a story about an orchestra, but to me it felt like a story that could teach us something about the dynamics of hope in this country right now. So I also got them to bring me along to their rehearsal on Tuesday.

12:14And even that felt somehow symbolic because it's in Odessa's Philharmonic Theater. And currently it's in a bit of a state because the hotel across the street has been hit in an aerial attack recently. And as a consequence, the Philharmonic also had its windows blown out. And so now when you walk into the building, it has all of these barriers to block out the public and they funnel them in through one single door. And then when you walk into the main hall, it has these big boarded up windows, but, you know, on these boards are paintings of the stained glass that's meant to be there. And so it just felt like this setting for a story of hope for these colleagues who knew each other long before the invasion happened, being reunited here in Odessa at a moment where hope seems so fragile.

13:05And as the orchestra was warming up, Serhii stepped onto that conductor's platform, and he was wearing all of his military fatigues. He is representing the army as he conducts his first show since the invasion happened. And then Gabriel took his seat at the grand piano, having come in from Italy with a symphony that he composed and is specifically dedicated to Ukraine. And what are they playing, Serhii? So they started with the national anthem, which is a hallmark of all performances in Ukraine these days.

13:42but then they went on to that core piece that symphony composed by gabrielle and as you listen to this symphony you can hear the nuance of war in the music the soft build-up the fast pace and anxiety and then the booming and ominous tones you can hear all of it through this music

14:11Gabriel has a long history of working in Ukraine that predates the invasion and he called it his second homeland and he said for two years after the invasion he really couldn't even think about composing anything for Ukraine because it was too painful and he didn't know how to even go about it but then in talking with all of his friends here in Ukraine he was eventually able to wrap his mind around it and write something that he felt was worthy of a Ukrainian audience. And so he's come for this one show tonight to perform it with Serhii. Sounds extraordinary.

14:46Sarah, you reported for us last year on Ukrainian attempts to protect the culture of the country. And this sounds like another example of that. Yeah, I really think it is, Rosie, because I think again and again, we've seen Russia's attacks on Ukrainians' cultural institutions. It's not just been about taking Ukrainian territory. And so Serhii is an interesting person to look at as far as combining those two aspects, because he serves on those front lines, but he tells me that all he ever wanted to do in his life was to make music. And so now in this one opportunity, three years after he started volunteering in his military role, he's able to combine them.

15:28And it's actually, in fact, more pragmatic for him because he sees it as a way to actually earn money for his unit. And so he's taking both roles on. And while Gabrielle is only coming in from Italy for this one show in Odessa, Sergi is doing a five-city tour across the country so that he can try and raise as much money as he can for his unit. Because right now, as we look at a withdrawal of aid, I mean, they are looking for support wherever they can get it. Sarah, it's been such a tough week for Ukrainians to maintain their hope and resilience. Can they really sustain that, do you think? I think Ukrainian morale has been something that has ebbed and flowed during different parts of this conflict.

16:10And I think this will be one of the biggest obstacles to morale yet. And I think there's a reason that I wanted to bring you this story, because it shows exactly what keeps Ukrainians going, what those little shows of support mean. because this was more of like a brotherhood between Sergi and Gabrielle that I had a chance to watch. And Gabrielle came in from Italy despite the fact that on his first night here, he had a show of explosions and air defense at work heard all throughout the city.

16:42And he stayed. And he talked about how important he felt that his music could be in this moment. And the two of them coming together really, really demonstrated something. And this entire war is about Russia fighting for Ukraine to be Russian. And this is just a show of the fact that despite what might be happening on the front lines, despite what might be happening in the international news cycle, Ukrainians will not give up. They will not stop. And this is just a show of friendship and support and Ukrainian culture that will just endure far beyond this critical moment. Sarah, music wasn't quite what I was expecting to end the week with.

17:24And maybe just the break we need, Rosie. Fantastic to have you this side of the microphone. Thank you. Thanks, Rosie.

18:13Thank you.

18:24For most of late 1944, American and British troops had advanced through Nazi-occupied France. Fraser McEwreith is the author of The Economist's Archive 1945. But then they got bogged down in fighting, after the Germans launched a counter-offensive led by General Gert von Rundstedt. At dawn on December 16th, the Nazi guns opened fire. and three panzer armies stormed out of a Belgian fir forest known as the Ardans to begin the Battle of the Bulge, one of the bloodiest, most decisive engagements of the Second World War. At the time, the economists lamented the deadlock in Europe, but it wasn't to last.

19:09The Battle of the Bulge was the Germans' last major offensive campaign of the war.

19:17By March 1945, the Allies were once again pushing into German-held territory from the West. With Archive 1945, we're republishing regular extracts in The Economist's archive week by week as the Second World War rolled to an end. 80 years ago today, the latest edition of The Economist was going to press and would reflect a more optimistic outlook. At last the Allies stand upon the Rhine, and tomorrow they may be across it. The Rhine was the last big river the Allies needed to cross before reaching the German heartland. The Allied armies in the West are reaching the Rhine on a long front, from Koblenz to the Dutch frontier.

20:00Rundstedt, hopelessly outfought, has not even been able to keep the big towns on the left bank of the Rhine as bridgeheads for the Wehrmacht. His real objective can only be to delay the establishment of Allied bridgeheads across the Rhine for as long as possible. Even some success in this would bring no real relief to Germany. In the east, the Red Army had made it to the Polish coast. They too had a river to cross, the Oder. The next few weeks are thus certain to see the last two great battles for river crossings in the German war. Meanwhile, in the Pacific, America was intensifying its bombing campaign against Japan.

20:42Tokyo, 20 ,000 feet below. The planes cruise steadily, making sure of military objectives, making absolutely certain that every ton of high-explosive will cut. Down goes a heavy pattern of bombs.

21:04They had initially targeted military and industrial sites, but after a series of raids failed because of the weather, they abandoned that strategy. The firebombing of Japan's mainland cities, with buildings made mostly from wood and paper, was devastating. Around 100 ,000 people were killed on the night of March 9th. when hundreds of B-29 bombers dropped white phosphorus and napalm on Tokyo. It had hardly rained in recent weeks, causing a firestorm to take hold. It was the deadliest bombing raid of the whole war. Fighting in Europe may have been entering its final stretch, but the most violent phase in the Pacific had just begun.

21:50If you haven't yet delved into Archive 1945, I really recommend it. It's a fascinating insight into the final year of the war and how The Economist reported it. You can find it in the Economist app or at economist.com slash interactive.

22:21That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. The show's editors are Chris Impey and Jack Gill. Our deputy editor is John Joe Devlin and our sound designer is Will Rowe. Sarah Larniuk is our audio correspondent. Our senior producer is Rory Galloway and our senior creative producer is William Warren. Our producers are Henrietta McFarlane, Maggie Kadifa, Benji Guy and Jonathan Day. We'll all see you back here for the Weekend Intelligence tomorrow.

22:53Thank you.