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The Intelligence from The Economist

28 Feb 2026 · 44m · 18 chapters

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The Weekend Intelligence: How to prepare for an invasion

In short

Hosts: Jason Palmer and Rosie Blau This episode explores the growing concerns of the Baltic States, especially Lithuania, in light of increasing threats from Russia. It highlights the preparations being made for a potential invasion and how the population is being mobilized to resist.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes.

Chapters

0:46

Lithuania's Preparedness Pamphlet

Discussion about a pamphlet in Lithuania on how to prepare for a potential invasion.

“It goes on to talk about how to survive the first three days until public authorities restore essential services or provide the necessary assistance.”
2:40

Community Defense: The Riflemen's Union

Insights into the Riflemen's Union and civilian training for defense in Lithuania.

“There are a lot of mushrooms here, you know.”
4:26

Planning for Day X

Exploration of personal and state preparations in Lithuania for a possible invasion.

“It was dissolved during the Soviet occupation and reformed in the 1990s.”
9:01

The Threat of Russia and Total Defense

Analysis of the Russian threat and the concept of total defense in Lithuania.

“Foodbank, Red Cross, Caritas, multithereals, and they are part of us.”
12:16

Personal Stories of Resistance

Experiences of individuals preparing for conflict and their motivations for resistance.

“And Putin plans to increase that military capacity at an alarming rate.”
14:00

Personal Memories of Soviet Occupation

Listeners will learn about the personal histories that drive resistance against invasion.

“In the event of an invasion, the Riflemen's Union would become part of the military.”
15:43

Civil Resistance Training in Lithuania

The segment explores civilian training courses for resistance against invasion.

“I'm talking with my children about the sacrifice, because it's hard for them, for me it's also.”
17:48

Realities of Living Near the Border

The challenges of living close to potential conflict zones are discussed.

“to how to build psychological resilience against disinformation online.”
20:32

The Growing Threat of Invasion

This segment reflects on the historical context of threats from Russia.

“and tells me she wants to support the resistance.”
24:41

Personal Sacrifices for Freedom

Listeners understand the personal costs associated with fighting for freedom.

“Carolus realized that the relative peace and stability of his youth was coming to an end.”
Show all 18 chapters
28:00

Facing the Reality of Invasion

Learn about the personal sacrifices and emotional toll of preparing for potential invasion.

“Karolus has thought long and hard about the kind of person he wants to be if Dayex comes.”
29:00

Community Reactions to Military Proposals

Explore the conflict within a Lithuanian community regarding a new military training ground.

“— In a small village in southern Lithuania, the local library has been turned into a control room.”
30:20

Personal Stories Amidst Uncertainty

Hear the touching stories of residents facing the potential upheaval of their lives.

“So today, the government has taken over the local library to run one-on-one consultations with homeowners.”
32:45

Debates on Defense Spending and Security

Understand the debates surrounding Lithuania's defense budget and its implications.

“but for her it isn't enough to make her uproot her life.”
35:10

Russian Disinformation and Social Division

Examine the impact of Russian propaganda on local sentiments and societal divisions.

“To some people, that means trade-offs, diverting spending that could go towards local communities.”
37:30

Identity and National Symbols in Crisis

Delve into the symbolic representation of Lithuanian identity amidst conflict.

“I don't think a training ground will provide security.”
40:59

A Generation's Shift in Perspective

Learn how the perception of safety and home is changing for younger Lithuanians.

“And the legacy he wants to leave his children.”
42:00

The Sounds of War in the Forest

Explore the emotional impact of impending invasion on local communities.

“Ruta and Odetta's beloved forest, the peace they cherish so much, is being filled with sounds of war.”
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Transcript

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0:04The Economist. Last year, my colleague Katie Bryant was visiting her partner's family in Lithuania. In the kitchen, she found a pamphlet. Every household in the country has received one. On its cover, a cartoon of a nuclear family. Mom, dad, two kids on their laps. Big, bold lettering. If war or crisis comes, what should I do? It's filled with practical advice about first aid kits and stockpiling food and having an emergency plan and so on. But it's the introduction that's revealing. As our long history and current events in the world have shown, security and independence need to be constantly defended and strengthened.

0:46It goes on to talk about how to survive the first three days until public authorities restore essential services or provide the necessary assistance. What's hinted at here is made concrete later, when it mentions occupying forces. For Lithuania and the other NATO member Baltic states, for the alliance's chief, Mark Rutte, there's only one force causing concern. Conflict is at our door. Russia has brought war back to Europe, and we must be prepared for the skill of war our grandparents and great-grandparents endured. I'm Jason Palmer, and this is The Weekend Intelligence. NATO is already a bigger club because of the war in Ukraine.

1:33Sweden and Finland fast-tracked their way in after the war started. Four years in, and the worry is only growing about what Lithuanians, including Europe's defense commissioner Andreas Kobilius, call Day X. We need to remember that if Day X comes, and Putin decides to test Article 5 somewhere in the Baltic region, we shall face the aggression of a Russian battle-tested army, which is now much stronger than it was back in February 2022. Katie went back to Lithuania to see what preparedness looks like today, beyond the regular forces and the NATO backstop. She spent time with a civilian army in freezing Baltic temperatures, asking not how the state, but how communities and families and individuals are confronting the threat of invasion.

2:39The Baravykai, Vaviruškos, Lepšiai, Rudonykei. There are a lot of mushrooms here, you know. We have beautiful forests. We have beautiful lakes.

2:51Katie Bryant: And which is your favourite mushroom? Baravikas. How come? You can, you know, it's this mushroom my grandfather told me when he was like little and he was working like a shepherd. They picked them and they were, let's say, cooking them on the fire. Just, you know, you don't need nothing. You just cook them for a few minutes and then you eat them. As you might be able to tell from the gunshots in the background, Mindogas and I sadly aren't in a forest picking mushrooms. We're at an army base in eastern Lithuania, standing in the middle of a model town. There's a stone house opposite an empty school building and a replica church.

3:37Katie Bryant: The buildings are connected by an underground tunnel. Fake casualties painted with lifelike wounds are being carried through it as we speak.

3:49Katie Bryant: Encircled by a pine forest, it's an eerie spot Next to us, there's an empty playground A child's swing is creaking in the wind Army packs piled at his feet Our unit is, how to say, simple, simple, simple troopers We're just trying to understand and learn how to penetrate the buildings and everything just to be prepared, just to be ready and know what to do. Mindogas is a member of the Riflemen's Union, a voluntary paramilitary organisation first established during Lithuania's war for independence in 1919. It was dissolved during the Soviet occupation and reformed in the 1990s. The organisation trains civilians to defend their country.

4:40Katie Bryant: Membership has doubled since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. On most days, Mindogas is running an engineering company. But yesterday, after being dropped into the forest by armored vehicles, he was learning how to clear enemy trenches. We were dropped by the Bradleys, then we walked and we stormed the trenches. And today, he's about to secure the school building and underground tunnel, while under simulated enemy fire. It was nice. It's good weather, nice company. His eyes are glinting as he says this. The sun may be shining, but it's also minus 11. The exercises involve wading through fresh snow with his rifle and supplies.

5:31Katie Bryant: The majority of these riflemen, like Mindogas, are in middle age. They're fathers and husbands from all walks of life. I realize one of them is a bartender from my hotel.

5:45Katie Bryant: As they're loading their guns and stocking up on simulated grenades, many have frozen beards and eyelashes. I follow Mindogas and the others through the school building, clearing it room by room, before climbing down into the underground tunnel.

6:12Katie Bryant: My partner is Lithuanian, and we visit his family a couple of times a year. With each recent trip, war has felt closer. There have been more signs for bomb shelters, more German soldiers on the streets on their first permanent deployment since World War II, and more talk of what people here call Day X. What would you do if that day comes? Russian tanks roll over the Lithuanian border to close the gap between Belarus and Kaliningrad, or attempt to push into Estonia under the pretext of protecting its Russian-speaking population. You wake up in the morning to alerts on your phone of a new war in Europe.

6:57Katie Bryant: What do you do? Here on the border, they have a plan.

7:15In 1988, I joined the SIOIDIS movement for independent and 100 ,000 population, they gathered to the meetings, somebody must make orders on the streets. I managed thousands of people. We created structures and it was the beginning.

7:35Katie Bryant: Back in the late 1980s, Virginius Vitalius Vilkales helped organize Lithuania's movement against the Soviet Union. You know, I was younger and I didn't feel no fear. a lot of Molotov cocktails, and at that time a lot of smokers. We smoked. I don't know how this or why. 30 years on, he's moved from the street to the halls of power. He's now the director of the Mobilization and Civil Resistance Department at the Ministry of Defense. To manage a lot of people is a very difficult job. You have to make structures. He's still working against the Kremlin, only now in an independent Lithuania. It's Virginius' job to prepare the people for a potential invasion.

8:26Civil protection package, cyber security. Of course, the Ministry of Defense provides cyber security education for business entities because it's very important in case of cyber attacks. Physical security is very important because if we are speaking about unknown situation, about mobile change, martial law. It's a huge task. Approximately 100 state mobilisation tasks to fulfil state significant functions.

8:53Katie Bryant: He works with organisations outside of the government, prepping them for mobilisation too. NGO who in peacetime works do crisis jobs. Foodbank, Red Cross, Caritas, multithereals, and they are part of us. And he coordinates with institutions to get key workers ready. There are also workers, clerks, personnel, who work in critical infrastructure, doctors, policemen. For them, we say, for you, your front line will be the same. You have to continue. A lot of his planning is focused on the days immediately after an invasion. Everyone at home has to have survival of food for three days and nights. Three days and three nights.

9:41Katie Bryant: That's how long the government anticipates it would take to get things back up and running effectively.

9:58Katie Bryant: Many Lithuanians I speak to have a plan for Day X. Some already have evacuation bags packed. A few told me they would leave the country. Others plan to get their family out while they stay behind to help the resistance. One father told me he's built a house off-grid where his children could be safe while he serves with the Riflemen's Union. But Linus Creala knows that plans can go out the window when chaos strikes. Of course, no plan survives the reality of shock. And hopefully it's never going to be employed, the plan itself. But I think you have to have a conversation of what to do when you open your mobile phone and it doesn't work.

10:41There is no network connection. And you try to have some fresh water and the tap is not working. And you want to go to a supermarket and it's not there. It's closed. And this would be a huge shock for a lot of people. And I think you cannot kind of prepare to that for this scenario fully. But at least you have to have a conversation about it and at least have a bag ready for 24, 48 hours or 72 possibly hours and not to be as susceptible to the change of circumstances as you would be in case it ever happens.

11:13Katie Bryant: Linus is a security analyst. He also makes TikTok videos explaining this new reality Lithuanians find themselves in.

11:24Katie Bryant: On camera, his manner is clear and calm, as he outlines the looming risks from President Putin's Russia. Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine is of existential importance for the Baltic states as well, primarily because Putin always maintained that his ambitions go beyond Ukraine. Putin consistently talks about the war in Ukraine as a struggle against the West as a whole. It has become central to his ideology, and he has never personally accepted the end of the Soviet Union or the independence of the Baltic states. Unless Ukraine succeeds in defending itself and also defending Europe as a whole, we could face a strong enemy, even if weak economically, weak possibly socially and politically, but still strong militarily, which clearly pursues imperialistic ambitions and sees that as its own raison d 'etre, like a way of continuing its own existence.

12:20Katie Bryant: And Putin plans to increase that military capacity at an alarming rate. That's the most worrying part, which includes Russia's military build-up and future plans of having a military extended to 1.5 million troops or maybe even going further than that. Putin's calculations will ultimately depend on the United States. President Trump's threats towards Greenland cast doubt on the very future of NATO. For small, frontline states, it's an existential problem. We want every Lithuanian citizen, no matter the age, education, physical readiness, to have a place in countries' defence, because that would be a very important signalling to Russia also, that you will not be able to succeed here.

13:05Katie Bryant: This is known as the doctrine of total defence. We will fight you, we will fight you as a country that has a military, but we will also fight you as a society, which is a very strong deterrent factor, I think, and I do think Russia understands it. In the hope of deterring attack, every citizen should get ready to resist.

13:34Katie Bryant: So once you have your survival bag packed, you have a choice to make. Do you leave? Do you stay and keep your head down? Or do you stay and resist? I think the main thing is just to stay out of the cities. The cities are the, let's say, that's where the people are mostly killed. Mindogas, the mushroom lover who runs an engineering company, is choosing the final option. In the event of an invasion, the Riflemen's Union would become part of the military. He has a plan to keep his young children safe so he can go to the front line. Just before this exercise, my daughter put me, let's say, on the table and talked with me about everything, why you're fighting and everything, and I had to talk with her to understand that if we will be prepared, nothing will happen.

14:32Katie Bryant: For Mindogas, it's memories passed down of Soviet occupation that drive him to military resistance. I think we lost like 70 % of our, let's say, family. My grandfather's brothers and sisters were killed or sent to Siberia. So we have, let's say, strong will not to stop. Not to stop and sometimes we are exhausted, but you're thinking that you need to do this. You have to do it. Between 1944 and 1953, 300 ,000 Lithuanians were deported to Siberia and other distant parts of the Soviet Union. The aim was to decapitate society's leadership. Political leaders were targeted, but also authors, poets and teachers.

15:26Katie Bryant: Mindogas' family fell victim to the purges because they were landowners. In total, over a quarter of the population was deported, murdered, or forced into exile by the Soviet regime. Society was hollowed out. I'm talking with my children about the sacrifice, because it's hard for them, for me it's also. But they have to understand that freedom is not cheap. What we have here, somebody paid by blood. So that's the main thing. If you want to have something, you have to pay for it. So if you want freedom, you have to pay by blood. Just is what it is. Life is life.

16:21Katie Bryant: If Day X comes, not everyone would be willing or able to fight. So some people are finding different ways to resist an invasion. The Ministry of Defence runs civil resistance training courses. There are over 30 just in the week that I'm visiting. My fixer and I head to Joubukas, a town in eastern Lithuania. The training is at the local hospital, a squat beige building opposite a cemetery and a small wood. There are about 15 women on the course. Lots of them are wearing white hospital jackets. Hi, nice to meet you all. I'm Maria and I. Thank you so much for having us today. My introduction is met with severe stares.

17:04Katie Bryant: Luckily, I spent enough time in Lithuania not to take this personally. The atmosphere soon relaxes. The instructor, Vaida, runs three of these training courses every week. At first sight, the session could be confused for a normal first aid class. There's a dummy torso in the corner to practice resuscitation. That's until the PowerPoint clicks through to a carefully labeled diagram of a bullet tearing through bone.

17:38Katie Bryant: Vaida tells the group that there is armed war and there is unarmed war. She runs through advice for survival, from what to pack in an evacuation bag to how to build psychological resilience against disinformation online. Then she moves on to talk about resistance. Her focus is on understanding the dangers and acting where you can. She highlights the different ways you could disrupt enemy forces. Removing road signs and blocking the street to slow them down. Or collecting information on enemy weaponry.

18:19Katie Bryant: Her PowerPoint cycles through different types of armored vehicles, guns and drones, and how to recognize them. The women in the room are quiet and focused.

18:33Katie Bryant: Vaida hands out black tourniquets, fastened with velcro. She tells everyone it's necessary to tie them as fast as possible to prevent the victim from bleeding out. The woman sitting next to me fastens hers quickly and shows me her handiwork. She tells me she's tied bandages before, but this is her first time tying a tourniquet. She looks pleased with it, but says it isn't fast enough. This is not good. Vaida gets everyone to discuss different scenarios around an emergency. For example, you live with your 12-year-old child and elderly 80-year-old mother. When the crisis starts, your car is being serviced in the garage.

19:19Katie Bryant: What do you do? Ruta, the woman sitting next to me, is asking and answering a lot of questions.

19:30Katie Bryant: We stay behind after the session. Ruta tells me she's a nurse at the hospital, and she lives next to a forest nearby.

19:41There is a nice view from our window. We see deer, we see foxes, we see far into the distance, horizon, sunsets.

19:51Katie Bryant: Sometimes, outside her home, she hears strange sounds. The sound is faint, but we recognize it. That type of sound I recognize. It's not cars. It's just from the training ground. All kinds of bullets, all kinds of explosions echo to us. Ruta's home is close to the border with Kaliningrad. Noises from Russian military exercises drift through her patch of forest. So she understands the threat Lithuania is facing and tells me she wants to support the resistance.

20:38Katie Bryant: I want to help. You have to. I am patriotic. Yes, I'd go to war. I'm about to ask another question. When I realize that she's crying,

20:56Katie Bryant: She tells me her mom is 82 and lives alone. Her father died recently. If an invasion happens, Ruta is a frontline worker. She would have to be at the hospital. And she's worried about who would look after her mother.

21:16I will have to go to work. As far as I understand, it will be mandatory for me.

21:26I have a sister who lives close by. Maybe somehow we would come up with something. I don't know.

21:38Katie Bryant: Sitting there with Ruta, I think about my partner's parents, who live on the edge of a wood in northern Lithuania. I realise I have no real comprehension of the trade-offs and decisions involved in preparing for war or of what it actually means to stay and resist instead of flee. As we leave, Ruta tells us to ignore her tears.

22:08It obviously makes people anxious living here in the Baltic states and in the region because it seems that there is no easy way of dealing with it and we are living in a permanent kind of environment of insecurity.

22:21Katie Bryant: Linus Koyala, who spends his days helping people understand the growing danger, has witnessed this anxiousness firsthand. I had a case of walking here in Vilnius and the woman approached me a couple of months ago and her question was very blunt. She asked me whether my daughter is still in Lithuania. Linus has a 15-month-old baby daughter. It felt like more of an accusation than a question. The question was whether I still think that Lithuania is safe for my own family, because I do talk about security issues, so probably they think, the people or the women that asked me the question, thought that I maybe knew something more, and if my family is already out of Lithuania, that means, well, something could happen in the nearest future.

23:19Katie Bryant: Like Mindogas, Linus had family members who were deported to Siberia during the Soviet occupation. But for his generation, millennials and younger, life in Lithuania was, until recently, one of optimism. I was surrounded by care, by warmth. I lived in a cozy home where everyone is doing stuff for me, as if I would be the last generation. Karolis also grew up in an independent Lithuania. At that time, like 1990s, early 2000s, in Lithuania you had this idea that the history is totally over and we are just moving towards this bright future, westwards, like go west. But when he was in his 20s, at his final year of university, things started to change.

24:07The Russian attack of Georgia was first signed. And then it kept on coming closer and closer to us.

24:14Katie Bryant: Lithuanians I speak to give different dates for when the danger from Russia became real to them. For some, it was the war with Georgia in 2008. Or the annexation of Crimea in 2014. For many, it was the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. And then Ukraine, of course, brought it back. and suddenly all of this memory which is in the blood, it becomes alive. Carolus realized that the relative peace and stability of his youth was coming to an end. This poison empire brought, it doesn't evaporate so quickly, you know. Generations, you need generations. But I have two small kids by now, and I see the danger that all of these history books, all of these family stories, which I heard from 1940s, 1950s, we might just go into this vicious circle.

25:13Well, I don't want that because it makes no sense. I lose purpose. I don't understand then what this world is about.

25:23Katie Bryant: Those family stories from dark eras of Lithuania's history inform the films Keralis makes today. In 2019, he made a film about a Lithuanian geographer from the 1930s, Kazis Pakstas. Watching the rise of Nazi Germany on one side and the Soviet Union on the other, Pakstas proposed creating a backup Lithuania. He even drew up plans to move the nation to Madagascar.

25:53When I read his story and I read how he'd been walking around Lithuania, the corridors of Lithuanian ministries in 1938 and 1939, ringing a bell like crazy and saying, the end is coming, we need to do something, and nobody believed him, or they were ridiculing him, that felt like me. Because I had this feeling for quite some time, but when I was saying it to people, I would see that they would look at me sceptically, like as if I'm being paranoid. But sorry to say everything fulfilled.

26:26Katie Bryant: This fear for Lithuania's future led Karolus to join the Riflemen's Union, like Mindogus and so many others. He serves in their armed resistance unit. When I'm in an exercise in the forest, and I think if that would actually come, And my kids would need to choose between having no father, but having a father dead for the right cause, and having a father who somehow chose to shut up and retreat and swallow it.

27:09which I saw in my family. I saw in a lot of people I knew, the generation of my grandparents, the generation that kept silent for quite some time.

27:22Katie Bryant: If Lithuanian independence is threatened again, Carolis wants to leave a different legacy for his children. I don't want my kids to grow in that. And I've been watching children of the Lithuanians who collaborated and children of the Lithuanians who died. And of course for a small child it's a great loss to lose a father or parents. But somehow, after some time, those people of parents who did something, who did not obey, they were more human, more dignified, more free.

28:17Katie Bryant: Karolus has thought long and hard about the kind of person he wants to be if Dayex comes. About what kind of father he wants his children to remember when he's dead and gone, whenever that may be. Like Ruta, he's facing up to the sacrifices and personal costs of resistance. It's something that many people I meet here simply aren't yet ready to do. And I can understand why people want to avoid the subject of an invasion. Why families and even politicians across Europe have skirted this topic altogether. But for some people, that reality arrives into their lives anyway. Whether they're ready to address it or not.

29:11Katie Bryant: — In a small village in southern Lithuania, the local library has been turned into a control room. Men in suits are hunched over laptops, cables looping over piles of laminated library books. A couple of army guys are milling about. A woman from the Ministry of Defence shows me around. There are several consultants from different institutions, from the Ministry of National Defence, and also we have representatives from the Ministry of Environment, and I think maybe that's the end. We also have representatives from the Lithuanian Armed Forces. They're all here to settle a dispute which has come to a head this week.

29:58Katie Bryant: The government wants to build a new military training ground, here in Kapciamistis. The proposed area would affect 90 homes. 13 families would definitely have to leave. 77 are in the non-shooting area. They can choose whether they would like to stay or sell their homes to the government. But many in the community are staunchly against the proposal. So today, the government has taken over the local library to run one-on-one consultations with homeowners.

30:37Katie Bryant: Kapcha Amistis and the surrounding area is part of the Sovolki Corridor, a stretch of land between Belarus and Kaliningrad. The region has been cited as a potential target for a Russian invasion. A strike here would cut the land connection between the Baltic states and the rest of NATO.

30:58Katie Bryant: Back in the library, residents are waiting in the corridor for their consultations. There's a table piled with the pamphlets on how to react in a war, next to a bowl of Ministry of Defence-branded sweets. Some residents I speak to are confused, angry and upset.

31:19Katie Bryant: None of us want this training ground, and we don't really need it. Others, however, are behind the government's decision.

31:30I trust the Lithuanian military. I trust that if they decided it's needed, it's needed.

31:40Katie Bryant: Next door to the library is the local history museum, where I meet the manager and curator, Odetta. At first, she's wary of speaking to me. We talk with the mics off for a little while before she agrees to an interview. She tells me she grew up here under the Soviet Union. She remembers there were constraints, like not being able to celebrate Christmas. But overall... It was an ordinary life. And it's just that our family was not touched by either exile or other such terrible things. Adeta raised her children here. One of her sons recently moved back home.

32:22We set our home up as we have dreamed all our lives. And in fact, a year or two ago, my husband and I were talking and said, how nice, we made our dreams come true. We are surrounded by beautiful nature, beautiful life, and we do not want anything else in life.

32:43Katie Bryant: She doesn't deny the threat from Russia, but for her it isn't enough to make her uproot her life. And she's emotional at the idea that, to some people, this makes her an enemy of the state. I do really love Lithuania. I do love my country. I raised my children and taught them to love their country, to love nature. Before we leave, Odetta gives me a quick tour of her museum. Her demeanor transforms. Her shoulders are now bouncing in excitement. All this was created from scratch. For Odetta, leaving her home right now for a future invasion which may not happen is not a price she's willing to pay.

33:40All the time I imagined that my house was my fortress. All misfortunes remain outside the door when you get back. When you come home and you feel good, you feel safe, you know that nothing will ever happen to you in your home. It's a shame, but we don't feel that security anymore. We don't feel it at all. The thing is that probably we won't hear the peacefulness and the sounds of nature anymore.

34:14When I imagine, I don't imagine anything. We live in wait.

34:25Katie Bryant: Adeta's not alone. Opposition to this new military ground has spread well beyond the local community. Residents told me that people from outside the area have been turning up at town hall meetings, criticising the plans. Later this week, the president and major politicians from opposition parties are descending on the area. Objection among the local community has accelerated into debates about the nature of Lithuanian defence against Russia, with some people questioning the lengths that society is willing to go to. This year, Lithuania's government plans to spend almost 5.5 % of its GDP on defence.

35:08Katie Bryant: That's among the highest in Europe. To some people, that means trade-offs, diverting spending that could go towards local communities.

35:21Katie Bryant: And these divisions, according to the man I'm calling en route to our next stop, are being amplified by Russian disinformation. So usually I kind of have a habit of, with my analysts, to kind of go through the signals which is happening. And beginning of December, we see that there's a new topic trending on Russian language propaganda channels. It's a specific thing. And also on some TikTok accounts. We see that there is a polygon of military-based topic trending. Miklas Katkis studies how Russian information networks infiltrate Lithuanian media. He tells me about the role they've played in this escalating debate about the military ground.

36:01The Russians do what we do usually in the state of uncertainty. They're usually trying to come up with a ready-made made made. They're trying to hijack the decision. So they sell cryptocurrencies, crypto scams by day and assistive propaganda by night or something.

36:14Katie Bryant: These accounts frame the debate as the local people against the state.

36:22Katie Bryant: Focusing on the divisions between the regions in Lithuania and the centre of government.

36:30Katie Bryant: The aim is to exacerbate existing tensions in society, to sow division and mistrust. In the second stage, the old Lithuanian, I would say anti-government people are joining. And these people provide coalition between natural government haters and just people having difficult political opinions to people who have been convicted or have some ties with Russian propaganda. Fabricated claims are promoted to turbocharged dissent. Miklas' team found false assertions about the potential health damage from the site and the impact on the environment. We see that people who were started by asking questions which were very obvious, like what's going to happen to us, why the government is not speaking to us, they become propaganda broadcasters kind of parenting the talking points which were first formulated in the Russian telegram groups.

37:23Katie Bryant: Russia-linked accounts are also pushing the idea that the training ground is useless and wouldn't help against an invasion anyway, A claim I heard echoed by a debtor.

37:37I don't think a training ground will provide security. If it were some kind of defensive fortification, it might provide security.

37:48Katie Bryant: Mikolas's work is a reminder that society, here and across Europe, is already under attack. Your emotional response to the idea of an invasion, your trust in the government and willingness to serve is in itself another front line.

38:11Katie Bryant: Karoliss, the film director who became a rifleman, sees his country increasingly conflicted over the looming crisis. I think that is one of the key divisions in society, what to do in case they do attack. As the nation grapples with onslaughts from Russian bots, fueling rows over military grounds, for Karolis, this is as much about internal conflict as external pressures. He tells me about Lithuania's two national symbols, which, for him, represent the dueling impulses in Lithuanian identity. The first is a mounted warrior. The man on a horse, the knight, which is called Vetus, and it's this energetic warrior type.

39:01Katie Bryant: I see this everywhere I go. It's on Lithuania's coat of arms. Some of the riflemen had it stitched into their uniforms. There was one from the interwar period in Odetta's museum, which had been hidden in a beehive during the Soviet occupation. It's even on the MOD suites at the consultation meetings in Capsiamistus. That's the part that wants to stand up and fight. But then there's this symbol. Which is this thing called the sorrowful Jesus, Rupintoielis, the wooden god who sits like that. Carolis put his head in his hands to demonstrate the pose. This is another figure I recognize, the pensive Christ.

39:43Katie Bryant: I've seen it carved into churches in Vilnius. It's a constant shift between those two stages, I think. Either being totally passive and silent and calm and not too talkative and alone. If you hop on a bus somewhere in the province, people would just sit far away from each other. But then at some point they become also very, sometimes even aggressive and energetic, then you might say, when things need to be done. usually they wait until until the last point but then they act and when they do act they can act in a collective way unify somehow me myself as a personality I'm more of a sorrowful Jesus probably I would feel totally comfortable sitting with a book the whole day at home not talking to anyone not you know I'm fine with that that's my natural me but I would want more of Vitus at this point and less of a sorrowful Jesus, I would say.

40:48Katie Bryant: So Carolus has made his choice. To listen to the warnings from history. To spend his weekends with the riflemen in the forest. On behalf of the future he wants for his country. And the legacy he wants to leave his children. I lived abroad and I missed home. This is my home. And when I'm saying that, I don't mean that it's the best place on earth. It's not. that it's a best society or whatever. But it's just a feeling of home, you know. Like, I know that I won't feel at home anywhere else. And if I need, I need to defend my home.

41:36Katie Bryant: I came to Lithuania because of alarm bells ringing across Europe. But the trip has reminded me what I love about it. The huge smiles that erupt unexpectedly from Syria's faces. The sound of pine trees knocking together. No matter what Putin, or indeed Trump, does next, this country is already changing. Ruta and Odetta's beloved forest, the peace they cherish so much, is being filled with sounds of war. A generation raised in peace, looking west, is now raising their children under the shadow of invasion. And a generation that grew up with stories of Siberia is wondering just how fragile their freedom is.

42:45Thank you.

43:11Thanks for listening to this episode, which was reported and produced by Katie Bryant, with help from Karolis Vishnowskas, fact-checking by Noah Flora, and sound design by Nico Raufast. The executive producer of The Weekend Intelligence is Gemma Newby. If you know someone who might enjoy listening to this or any of our other episodes, you can now share them with non-subscribers. Go to the episode page in the app or on our website and select Give as a Gift. We'll all see you back here on Monday.

43:47Thank you.

From the publisher

Just one generation after they gained independence, people in the Baltic States are watching the threat from the Kremlin creep closer and closer. In Lithuania, the government is preparing the population to resist an invasion. 


On “The Weekend Intelligence” Katie Bryant travels to Vilnius to ask how facing up to threat is changing the nation. 


Topics covered:


Lithuania

Civil defence

Disinformation


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