War hoarse: is Zelensky being heard?

0:02The Economist

0:10Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm Jason Palmer. And I'm Rosie Bloor. Every weekday we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

0:24There are a lot of fish lovers in West Africa and in Ghana in particular, but most of the fish in the region is imported. We look into what's holding back local fish farming and how getting past those barriers would be good for food security. And since the arrival of the printing press spurred on the Protestant Reformation, tech has disrupted religion. The latest iteration is on TikTok, where holy hashtags are flourishing. Our correspondent investigates Faith Talk, the loudest pulpit yet.

1:01First up, though.

1:10It has been a long three years for Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky. Donald Trump had promised to end the war with Russia within 24 hours of taking office. But though he's certainly been outspoken about the situation in Gaza, since becoming president, Trump has said little about Ukraine. At the Munich Security Conference this weekend, Zelensky should have the chance to talk to American officials face to face. Ahead of that international summit, he sat down for an interview with Oliver Carroll, who's been reporting for The Economist in Ukraine since before the war.

1:48Zelensky has many shades of his character. And certainly the one we saw yesterday was one of the lighter shades.

2:00He was quite smiley, he was very charismatic, very disarming. He's obviously trying to keep himself fit. He says he tries to fit in an hour of gym training every morning after these sleepless nights of military updates and bombs going off outside his window. But obviously you can see from his face he's still very tired and he couldn't really hide himself from the general predicaments he finds himself in. Oli, you talk about Ukraine's predicament. We're coming up to three years into the war. Lay out for us quite how much Zelensky has to worry about. Well, the situation on the front lines, it's bleak.

2:40It's not a good picture. Ukraine is up against a pretty ruthless war machine, which has the virtue of mass and tyranny on its side. Ukraine, in many ways, is hamstrung by the fact it has a much more democratic approach to mobilization and to issues like desertion and so on. I mean, as Zelensky said himself in the interview, the soldiers on the Russian side, they don't go straight ahead, they'll have a rifle in their back. So, sometimes between 7 and 8 I still want to do something. He says that the situation is obviously hard, but it's hard on both sides.

3:26I tried to get across the idea that Western pessimism is misplaced. And in fact, in the big picture, the line isn't moving as much as it once was. That's certainly true. There is an argument to say that Russia is regrouping. And this is the big question of the next sort of six to 12 months. whether this slow retreat by Ukraine, which is essentially down to the huge manpower advantages that Russia has. And this is something he kind of skirted over. He didn't like to dwell too much on that. But he says in the general picture, you know, the lines are fairly stable. Russia isn't winning. If Vladimir Putin thinks he has a chance of winning, that's because he's badly informed.

4:10He doesn't know the details. And Oli, Trump said that he was going to end this war in 24 hours. Do we know if Zelensky and Trump have even been speaking? To anybody, it was clear that the oven-ready plan in 24 hours was not realistic. Just to compare to the Korean armistice, that runs to thousands of pages. This was never something that could be decided overnight. And the reality is obviously proving a lot more difficult. Zelensky pointedly said that he doesn't think there is even a ready plan. He certainly hasn't been consulted about it. But the interesting thing is that, in fact, there has been very little contact between Ukraine and the US.

4:50And this was something which you didn't really have to scratch very far to understand how much it was frustrating for Volodymyr Zelensky. There is a phone call, my team is talking with the president Trump. but somethingகள, others. This is a man. Through all the challenges he's been the action man of Ukraine, he's been battling. And now he's in limbo, which is a kind of new feeling, I suppose. He mentioned just two phone calls since a famous September meeting in America with Mr. Trump. Which seems pretty short for one of the most important strategic relationships, one would say, in the world today.

5:33hey, he hears about possible Russian contacts through the press like we do. He's not even sure they're happening, but he assumes so. But he says, listen, these contacts were happening before under Biden. So obviously he's trying to walk a very thin line. He's trying to be diplomatic. You know, when I asked him, you know, you're meeting with J.D. Vance, a man who said he was absolutely indifferent to the fate of Ukraine. He said, well, J.D. Fance, I don't think he's actually going to be concentrating on Ukraine.

6:11There's a lot of sort of sidestepping and there's a lot at stake. And that was very clear from our conversation. Particularly with reports that Putin and Trump have themselves been speaking. So he finds out about possible connections between Mr. Trump and Mr. Putin, though he's not sure they're actually taking place, these conversations, via the press. But he's certainly concerned about what he says would be manipulations if Russia was left alone with America, with Putin, with Trump.

6:48A deal which doesn't include Ukraine in the process is not a deal which will stick, he says. And what of Zelenskyy and Putin? Could they find a deal? Certainly not at the moment. It's fair to say Zelenskyy harbors no fondness for his nemesis in the Kremlin. When I asked him about the positioning of Secretary of State Marco Rubio recently, that both sides needed to make compromises, he said, it's compromise enough that I'm prepared to sit down with a killer.

7:26And he likened Putin to Hitler. He said, imagine that Hitler didn't kill himself. Imagine that after everything he did to the Jews, people also said, OK, let's look for compromise. He says Ukraine is ready to negotiate, but it's only ready to negotiate if it has security guarantees which would be provided by the United States. Because a history of broken deals had shown that talks and ceasefires as well don't work with Putin. He's not interested in any peace, he said. So where do you think this will go? Well, that's the biggest question. A large Ukrainian delegation will be meeting with an American delegation at this weekend's security conference in Munich.

8:13But there is very little clarity of what is up for discussion, what will be discussed, let alone the kind of security guarantees that Zelensky is looking for as a way to secure Ukraine's peaceful future. So, Zelensky said no one is giving up yet on the idea of NATO membership. He still wants it. But if he can't get that, then Ukraine will build what he calls its own NATO. And by that he means increasing its army, strengthening its army to the size of Russia's army, doubling it essentially. NATO? What does it mean NATO? We don't need any armies of the world. We need our army, but we will have to double it.

9:01There are questions, of course, how we might do that, given that he already has problems mobilizing. And of course, there's the question of who would fund it and whether he would get the permission to get the kind of weapon systems that he's asking for from the Americans. I mean, I asked him whether there was a plan B, if this wasn't possible. This is plan B. And Oli, Zelensky is obviously facing huge challenges on the battlefield, but also resistance and low morale at home. Will he stay in the job? Yes. I mean, morale is under pressure everywhere. on the front line, back home. And I'm sure it's weighing down on him.

9:37I mean, I'm sure he sees the polling. He's not quite the popular figure he once was. Dissent is rising. And as consummate a politician as he is, I'm sure he sees those figures. There is a lot of speculation about elections. He says he's not thinking about elections. There can't be any thought of elections while the war goes on. Certain indications would suggest otherwise. But he says, you know, unlike the man in the Kremlin, he's not addicted to power. And, of course, as in our armies, there are consequences of a long war. But there is a difference between me and Putin. He loves life and freedom, he said.

10:19And he still sees himself in complete contrast to Putin. He says, Putin will die soon, I still want to live.

10:33And he says he's determined that, you know, Putin won't put his mark on the deal that Ukraine might get. The question is, if this brinkmanship fails, you know, and he doesn't get what he is asking for, which is actually quite a maximalist ask, what he will do and what power he has to challenge a deal if that Trump deal falls short of what he needs. Look, I don't give Putin to win. It's the way I live. He said, I will not let Putin win. This is what I live by. Oli, thank you so much. Great as ever to talk to you. Great speaking to you, Rosie.

11:24And we've got a deal for you. Just for this week, you can get 30 % off an annual print and digital gift subscription. The offer ends on Friday, which happens to be the 14th of February. Yes, that's Valentine's Day. I guess this is the marketing department's way of expressing their devotion for you. Search Economist subscription for your chance to show someone how much you love them for their mind.

12:01So this is offshore. Why do you call it offshore? We call it offshore because it's very far from the shore. Okay. And we're in the middle of Lake Volta. Lake Volta is actually an artificial lake in between the eastern region and the Volta region of Ghana. Ore Ogunbiyi is our Africa correspondent. It looks like we're in the ocean. You can't actually see much in terms of land, apart from some mountains far away. And there's lots of big nets in the middle of the lake and people tending to the fish. So you're going to see what they're up to.

12:41We have 72 cages, circular cages, 20 metres diameter and 7 metres deep, each net. That's Vicente Maldonado. He's in charge of this Chopper Farms processing centre. Chopper Farms is one of the few large-scale fish farms in West Africa. And they're breeding tilapia, a much-loved freshwater fish in the region. All the fish that we are producing here is for locals, and the local market is eating the 13 ,000 tonnes that we did last year. But despite the demand, fish farming in Africa is growing pretty sluggishly. Africans still import 40 % of all the fish that they eat. And unlike in the rest of the world, where 60 % of all fish is now farmed, most fish in Africa is still caught.

13:39And for a start, Ori, how much is fish a part of Africans' diets? Well, in Ghana especially, fish is a pretty significant part of people's diet. Ghanaians eat almost three times as much fish as the average African and have one of the highest dependency rates in the region. So preferences when it comes to how they eat it, unlike much of the rest of the world, they prefer their fish whole and typically grilled and it's a whole thing. And that's good news for fish farms because it means it's less wasteful and it requires less of that post-harvest processing, which can present added costs. But there are still some issues that are holding farms back from growing quickly enough to take advantage of all of this.

14:18So what are the issues? The main problem is the upfront cost is still quite high. You make nothing in the first six months while you're waiting for the tilapia fish to become big enough to sell. That's about 450 grams. And then fish are quite delicate things. So there's all kinds of other money that has to be spent on keeping them alive. So for chopper farms, each of their 72 cages on this part of the lake must be very carefully temperature and disease controlled. So you've got to make sure that the oxygen levels don't stress out the fish and kill them. There's also things about diseases that you've got to be careful of.

14:50So when I went, our tires and our shoes had to be hosed down when we drove in because there are biosecurity vulnerabilities that can cost them hundreds of thousands of fish and, of course, money. And there are, of course, other costs that can really sting. The costs are adding up. What else you got? So Vicente told me that 70 % of Trapro Farms' regular spend goes to the food alone. The sacks of the pellets are shipped offshore and then skillfully tossed into these massive cages several times a day. Then after you've actually harvested the fish, you've got to keep them cold. And powering the cold chains is, of course, yet another cost.

15:27Chopper Farms has actually just raised$10 million in a funding round, which they're saying they're going to put towards more equipment. But their boss, Mark Amici, says it's just a drop in the ocean. The average Ghanaian fisherman, who's hoping to pivot from catching fish in the wild to more lucrative aquaculture, will struggle to make even a fraction of that just to get started. So if the issue is just getting into the business, a more capital-intensive business, I guess, but the overall returns would be better, the efficiency would be good, then that sounds like kind of ripe for maybe subsidizing?

15:59Well, yeah, the problem is in this part of the world, this industry doesn't get that much government support. The bureaucratic hurdles are still too high for people who work in this industry. I mean, in countries like Nigeria, even getting land permits just to do fish farming can be a bit of a hassle. Local ministries and regional blocs like the Economic Community of West African States still spend too little on research and on improving cross-border market access or training people whose livelihoods and lifestyles for so long have revolved around catching fish in the wild. Development finance institutions could also help provide some cheaper funding, but not everyone is convinced about the sustainability of the industry.

16:39But if West Africa is really able to dive into aquaculture, cheaper and more readily available fish could radically improve food security in a region that badly needs it, it could provide jobs, and it could boost productivity for good.

16:57All right, thanks very much for your time. Thank you so much for having me, Jason.

17:10All I know is I walked into church this morning. I prayed with everything I had, that sweet baby Jesus, that my TikTok would come back. I walk out of church, open up this app, and it's back, baby! When TikTok was resurrected in January, just hours after the short video app shut down, American users gushed that their prayers had been answered. Caitlin Talbot is a culture correspondent at The Economist. In fact, Trump had just issued an executive order that granted the extension of the Chinese-owned app before it was divested or shut down due to American concerns over national security. But these sort of sacred sentiments are not out of place on TikTok, where religious content is booming.

17:50Amen! Say hi, TikTok! Hi, TikTok! Videos with the top five holy hashtags, which include hashtag Jesus and hashtag Islam, have been viewed more than 1.2 trillion times. Videos show Catholics sprinkling holy water, Mormons annotating scripture, and Muslims reciting the Quran. TikTok offers a cacophony of liturgy, as multiple opposing belief systems are pushed through algorithms. But it is worth attention because the app is changing faith and culture in notable ways.

18:28This is not the first time that tech has influenced religion, of course. The printing press was famously disruptive, spurring on the Protestant Reformation in 1517. Television helped evangelism flourish in America in the 20th century, but it was also linked to lower church attendance. The internet changed things even further. After the internet boom in the 1990s, people in the West started shedding formal religious affiliations. Since then, the share of Americans who say they have no religion has almost tripled. As people spend more time on the internet, they're less likely to pray, attend services or belong to a religious tradition.

19:08But the internet hasn't been all bad for religion. Online platforms have helped build communities and have made young adults on social media more accepting of different religions. but TikTok is the loudest pulpit yet.

19:27The app is changing faith in three ways. First, conversions are happening differently, especially amongst young people. Gen Z, TikTok's biggest flock of users, are more likely than any other generation to think faith has a place in the modern world. They're often attracted not to established churches but to online ministries. In the first Christian video I made on TikTok, it got 75 ,000 views. And immediately I knew that the hand of God was on it. Kalen Michael Seaman is a Louisiana-based influencer who runs a digital ministry and helps other Christians form their own. I believe TikTok and short-form content was actually a gift from God.

20:07He claims to have started a viral revival, training thousands of preachers and inspiring hundreds of thousands of conversions. So today I'm going to give you the master key to a successful Christian life. The master key to Christianity. The second way TikTok is changing faith is by making it less formal. I think, especially those in my generation, we are totally more likely to gather for a bonfire than a Sunday morning pew in church and lights and camera and smoke and mirrors type experience. Gabe Cuaro is an influencer who claims to have converted some 40 ,000 people to Christianity. He says that young people prefer unedited clips to polished productions, and he thinks young people are leaving church to develop a more intimate relationship with God online.

20:57TikTok's casual style means anyone with a phone and an internet connection can start preaching. Influencers are lauded for their charisma rather than their credentials, and they're incentivized to provoke or pander to audiences for views, leading to clickbaity titles such as, Are You Going to Heaven or Hell?

21:21That brings me to one of TikTok's biggest effects on faith. It is sowing division. As more voices proclaim authority, people's belief systems are splintering. Much as worship has abandoned the Catholic Church during the Reformation, Today, they're leaving traditional institutions to follow new religions. On the fringes of faith talk, people are defecting to new age spirituality. Hashtag Wicca and hashtag Witchcraft each have billions of views on the platform. More worryingly, the site is also awash with religious disinformation, from AI-generated hate speeches to deepfakes of religious figures.

22:00TikTok tends to amplify controversial and divisive content, including videos related to politics. But religion can be a particularly motivating force as people believe that they're being summoned for a higher purpose. Online, many of the lambs of God turn into lions.

22:37That's it for this episode of The Intelligence. Let us know what you think. You can get in touch at podcast.economist.com. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

23:05Thank you.