You spin me right round: Europe’s populists reckon with Trumpism

0:02The Economist

0:10Hello and welcome to The Intelligence from The Economist. I'm your host, Jason Palmer. Every weekday, we provide a fresh perspective on the events shaping your world.

0:25Somewhat lost in the discussion of America's leaked details of military strikes were the targets. The Houthis in Yemen have been strengthening even as other Iranian proxies have waned, and American attacks are so far proving counterproductive. And entertainment aimed at Christians is having a moment, particularly on the small screen. Our correspondent looks at why Jesus remains such a bankable star.

1:01First up, though.

1:09In lots of European countries, hard-right parties have been gaining a lot of ground, even getting into government. So when Donald Trump was re-elected on a platform of nationalist populism with a generous dose of anti-wokeism, Europe's hard-right leaders felt it was a boost. But then he took office, shook up the transatlantic order, undermined NATO again, and Ukraine, and showed cynical, history-free opinions on the continent. The European Union was formed in order to screw the United States. I think they've been freeloading. The European Union's been absolutely terrible to us on trade. Terrible.

1:47Where Mr. Trump hammered the EU on trade, his vice president, J.D. Vance, took up the culture war stuff. Europe is at risk, I think, of engaging in civilizational suicide. So those hard-right leaders who may once have seen a comrade in arms are learning that not all populist or nationalist or nativist or isolationist visions line up neatly. Giorgio Maloney, Italy's prime minister, and Marine Le Pen, the candidate who's currently leading polls for France's next presidential election, are arguably two of the most important hard-right figures in Europe. One of them runs a major G7 economy, and the other one could do, possibly, at the next election.

2:30Sophie Petter is our Paris bureau chief. Both of them also share some views with the Trump administration or the MAGA movement, notably on cultural and social issues. But both of them are now stuck in a slightly awkward position. They are pulled between American and European interests. right sophie let's start with georgia maloney how has she dealt with the trump administration the trump effect so far well she very much sees herself as a friend of donald trump and she's spoken out in support of his political values especially on cultural issues that the political and cultural battle for conservative values is not just an american battle it is a western battle But she's also made plain her discomfort with Europe's quite assertive response to Trump.

3:21I can recall a meeting in Paris, one of the first meetings about boosting support for Ukraine, and she turned up nearly an hour late to the Elysee Palace, and that was very much noticed. She had apparently objected to the format. This was the beginning of Europe's effort to think outside the European Union. But even when Keir Starmer, Britain's prime minister, held a different meeting shortly later. She still only confirmed her attendance very much at the last minute. So she has in some ways done an about turn on Ukraine. She was supportive when it was Joe Biden's administration, but now she's out of step with other EU leaders as they try to step up in the face of American disengagement.

4:05For example, she has said that she won't contribute Italian troops to this idea of putting a peacekeeping force on the ground. That's the Franco-British idea. She opposes the confiscation of Russian assets, which were frozen under EU sanctions. What it looks like is that she doesn't want to upset Trump. And how is that evident tension affecting her standing at home? Well, it's very complicated. She runs this quite unwieldy coalition. And Matteo Salvini, who's the leader of the Hard Right League party. He is one of the deputies who have condemned Europe's programme, which is known as RE-ARM, to boost defence spending across the European Union.

4:46Salvini is much more in tune with public opinion on this, actually, and that makes it difficult for the Prime Minister, Giorgio Maloney. I think there may also be another reason this was put to us by a head of a think tank in Rome, that Maloney, in a way, has been struggling with her past image as a toxic far-right leader. And by backing Ukraine, that was a way of gaining credibility with other EU leaders. But that since the current administration has come into office, she has actually tried to shift closer to their position and that has put her at odds with the European Union. So it is very complicated for her and it's complicated in both directions.

5:28that she's not proved as close to Trump as she might have hoped, but she's also now distanced herself from a lot of EU leaders. And what about the complications as regards Marine Le Pen, a little closer to home for you? Well, it's interesting in many respects. I mean, don't forget she's an opposition leader for one thing. So she's not in a position of power, at least not yet. And her geopolitical background is very different in a sense that she's always distanced herself and her party from the transatlantic alliance. She has been closer to Russia in the past before Putin invaded Ukraine in 2022.

6:02She had not only taken a bank loan from a Russian bank, which she's now repaid, but she also put in an election flyer, a photograph of her with Putin, which had to hastily be shelved for obvious reasons. And it's interesting that in a recent parliamentary vote in support of Ukraine, her party, the national rally, abstained. So in a sense, this distance from America and the North Atlantic alliance has made it easier for her to criticise Trump. And that also puts her in tune with French public opinion. There was a recent poll which suggested that 73 % of the French think that America is no longer an ally of their country.

6:44But does that keep her in line with the opinions of the party that she's leading? Well, to be honest, her party is very torn and often it depends who you talk to, to get a sense of where they want to position themselves. A lot of the party figures, they admire Trump for what he's done, getting elected again, how to win elections, how to use quite simple slogans to rally popular opinion during an election campaign. But it's also difficult because Trump's extreme views and actions have been an embarrassment for the party. There was a moment when Jordan Bardella, who is Marine Le Pen's party president and her 29-year-old protégé, travelled to Washington for the National Conservative Convention, but decided to leave when Steve Bannon, Trump's former aide, made what looked like a Nazi salute.

7:35So he never took part in the event, having promised that he would. It's awkward for Le Pen because she has wanted to detoxify her party and improve its image at a time when it remained still tarnished by the past fascist and neo-Nazi associations. And in the last month, her opinion polls have dropped by two percentage points, according to a recent poll. These are two very sort of pointed case studies, but I guess the question is the broader one about the right in Europe, which has been in the ascendant for some time. It is. And of course, I suppose the point is that when Trump was re-elected, there was a sense in which all of the nationalist right would do well on the back of his success.

8:18And some far-right leaders in Europe are doing well. I mean, think of nationalists like Viktor Orban in Hungary. He's delighted with the Trump administration, calls him a comrade in arms. If you look at Germany, the AFD, that's the far-right opposition. Its leader, Alice Weidel has been absolutely championed by Elon Musk. But I think for these two leaders, Maloney and Le Pen, Trump is turning into what could be a real headache, and mainly because Europeans just don't like Trump. If you look at a recent poll, just 6 % of the French and 8 % of Italians think that Trump is a friend of Europe. And that kind of nationalism is very different from the American nationalism that Trump champions.

9:00So I think that the damage that could be done to this nationalist movement is something we can't underestimate. We have to keep a very close look at. Sophie, thanks as always for your time. Thanks, Jason.

9:52Thank you.

10:06That chat on signal between senior American officials that was leaked by The Atlantic magazine? It was an egregious security breach. It was shot through with information that should have remained top secret. But what hasn't been much discussed so far is the actual subject of it, strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. We've been telling you since late 2023 how the Iran-backed group of militants has pretty successfully choked shipping in the Red Sea, how it's directly targeted American ships. And America, we now know in detail that we very much shouldn't know, struck back again. Even beyond our wildest expectations, we've hit them very hard, very successfully, and we're going to do it for a long time.

10:53We're going to keep it going for a long time. This is an exaggerated view. American strikes are not having their intended effect. If anything, they've been like swatting at a hornet's nest. Iran has had a string of satellites and proxies across the region. It's had Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, Iraqi Shia forces. Nicholas Pelham is a Middle East correspondent for The Economist. Perhaps the most prominent at the moment are the Houthis, the Yemeni forces who control much of Yemen. And as Israel has pulverized Gaza and severely weakened Hezbollah, that's left the Houthis as perhaps the kind of preeminent force within Iran's so-called axis of resistance.

11:40But why would you characterize them as the preeminent force? What is it that gives them the power you seem to be hinting at? In part because they still are in power. They're a government, they control 25 million people, the bulk of Yemen's population. They control the territory that runs along the Red Sea and into the hinterland. It's a jagged mountainous territory, which is really hard for any outsiders to control. And they've been able to essentially maintain their grip on a checkpoint through which much of global shipping runs the Bab al-Mandeb at the entrance into the Red Sea. And is that why America has chosen to strike again?

12:19What do you think America was trying to achieve with those most recent strikes? First, they wanted to open the Red Sea. They wanted to ensure that something like 12 % of global trade that runs through those shipping lanes was open. Until now, a lot of that shipping, because of the Houthi attacks has been routed via, had to go around Africa. They also wanted to show and demonstrate American naval prowess. and perhaps most importantly, they wanted to maximise pressure on Iran. The thought being that if you can weaken Iran's proxies in the region, you're also going to weaken the headquarters in Tehran and weaken the Atala's hand ahead of any nuclear talks that might materialise.

12:57But you hinted before that American strikes hadn't achieved what was intended. I mean, are they now? Are those goals being achieved, do you think? It doesn't seem to be. the Houthi strikes on shipping in the Red Sea haven't subsided. There has been some damage to the cities that the Houthis control. There are said to be scores of dead, including some senior Houthi officials amongst them. But the Houthis remained in command of vast areas. Their power seems relatively undiminished and they're still launching attacks on shipping lines and lobbing ballistic militars in the direction of Israel. So the strikes have acted essentially only to anger, to embolden the Houthis?

13:35It seems like that. The Houthis' negotiating position hasn't really shifted. They say that they're going to maintain their attacks on shipping and Israel until Israel ends its blockade of aid into Gaza and reimposes the ceasefire. That's been their position really since the start. And the Houthis have been around for decades. Despite the firepower that's been aimed at them, they've only taken on ever stronger foes. They first fought the Yemeni government, then they fought the Saudis and the Emiratis, and now they're taking on America and Israel. And it's that defiance that's earning its support all the way from Algeria to Afghanistan.

14:15And right now, America's bombardment just reinforces the Houthi message that the infidel is attacking believers. So yeah, I think it's fair to say that the Houthis are stronger than a year ago, and it could mean they'll increase their pressure in line with America's. Which is a recipe for nothing more than escalation, am I right? I mean, what do you see happening next? It certainly feels like that. Mr. Trump is expanding his threats. He's promising to hold Iran to account for Houthi attacks. He's warning of dire consequences. And yet that approach only seems to be hardening the mullahs' hearts.

14:52It's not too far-fetched to imagine that Iran may counter it's under pressure at home it sees a need to kind of rally the population around the flag and perhaps by inviting Israeli or perhaps American attacks on Iran itself it might succeed in doing that so it does seem as if the Houthis and Iran are set on a course of greater regional confrontation involving Israel the Houthis have made indirect threats if there is escalation they could fire again at Gulf cities and all terminals. So yes, it all feels as if a conflict which had been limited could spiral not just into the Red Sea, but into the Persian Gulf and beyond.

15:32Nicholas, thanks very much for joining us, as ever. Thank you, Jason.

15:53There are many signs that Christian television shows are having something of a moment. But the biggest sign is definitely the beards, which are currently everywhere. Catherine Nixie is a culture correspondent for The Economist. Switch on House of David and you will be offered biblically big beards, alongside biblically big battles, in a retelling of the story of David and Goliath. Try The Chosen and you will get big beards. this time starring alongside Big Bad Romans in its retelling of the story of Jesus. While if you watch Jesus Revolution, a more modern offering about a Californian pastor living in the 1970s, then you'll get beards with flares and fixed gear bikes.

16:34And it's hugely popular. Viewers in vast numbers are tuning into these series. The Chosen, the series about Jesus, has now been watched by over 200 million people. while Mary, a series about the mother of Jesus, recently reached number three on Netflix. House of David, meanwhile, is currently ranked eighth on all streaming services in America. Jesus's viewing figures, much like Jesus himself, have risen.

17:05And so has the attempt to appeal to Christians. New series and new films are being commissioned. Seven faith-based titles were greenlit by Amazon in 2024. And that might not sound that much, but it's up from just one in 2021. And the reason for this seems to be simple. It's not about God. It's about Mammon. These things are making money. It's tempting to link this rise with the current rise of conservative politics and ideas across the world. In an anti-DEI world, holier-than-thou Hollywood is out. Straight holiness is in. And it seems to be in elsewhere as well. J.D. Vance recently invoked Thomas Aquinas on immigration policy.

17:43Trump himself released a God Bless the USA Bible, while popular writers like Jordan Peterson have recently written best-selling books about faith, seasoned with a little Disney. Though if you speak to filmmakers, they say that it's less that Hollywood has seen the light than that the rest of the world right now feels just so very dark. People want to watch things that restore faith. The Wonder Project, one of the studios behind the House of David, describes its mission not as making Christian TV, but more vaguely as restoring faith in things worth believing in.

18:24One of the things that these series restore faith in is profit margins. Faith-based shows are making money, and they prove profitable for two main reasons. Firstly, they're cheap and relatively simple to make. The story of Jesus doesn't rely on that many special effects. Water, even when it turns into wine, isn't expensive. And they don't really need big-name celebrities. As founder of the world's largest religion, Jesus offers name recognition enough. Plus, there's a ready-made market for them. 62 % of Americans still identify as Christian. And they're really not that well catered for by Hollywood.

19:02It can be tricky to make television from Christianity's holy book. Not all of these films do. Some of them offer biblical stories. Others offer what's usually called Christian values. In other words, they're low on sex and violence and high on the feel-good factor. There might be some nasty moments in them. Goliath would probably dispute the idea that these films aren't violent. but the violence is contained within a pleasing narrative story arc in which villains are vanquished and good eventually triumphs. It's easy to see, though, why streamers might want their shows to diverge from the straight biblical texts as adapting biblical stories can be tricky.

19:40God might have made heaven and earth, but he doesn't always make the best screenwriter. Some lines, such as Jesus' cry in Luke 23, 34 Father, forgive them for they know not what they do, are clearly ready for their close-up. Other lines, such as Leviticus 18.17, do not have sexual relations with both a woman and her daughter, would probably require a little workshopping. None of this is new. Christians have always pillaged their sacred texts for entertainment and enlightenment. From medieval mystery plays to epics such as Crovadis from the 1950s and on to more recent films such as Mel Gibson's 2004 The Passion of the Christ, this has been happening for a long time, with varying degrees of critical success.

20:27These films and series tend to be either panned or just completely ignored by non-Christians. Still, such critical slings and arrows make little difference. Quo Vadis was the highest-grossing film of 1951, while the viewing figures of The Chosen and House of David continue to climb.

20:46In television, as in history, a little persecution seems only to deepen Christian fervour.

21:09That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

21:22Thank you.