Young, gifted and black: Africa’s next generation

0:28The Economist an internet meme, not that it's a real department. What's also kind of made up are the numbers that the budget-slashing outfit claims to be saving. And you may be surprised to hear that Germans take more sick leave than any other country in the EU. Are they actually sicker? Well, no, not really. Our correspondent takes to her bed to investigate.

1:02But first...

1:07Everything in Nigeria is about the money. Grace Skara-Staliup is a 26-year-old living in Lagos. I sew for money. I cook for money. I even clean some houses for money so that I can make a living. She juggles multiple jobs and relies on tips and a bit of help from Good Samaritans just to be able to rent a room there.

1:50Inflation has averaged 30 % for two years and food inflation in Nigeria has been even higher. Ore Ogunbiyi is our Africa correspondent. Grace blames the economic crisis on the president, Bola Tinubu, who she didn't vote for, but prays for anyway. I always pray for the leaders, that God should help them or God should touch their heart to do what is needed of them to do. Because I feel like they are just selfish. Deep down, she thinks it's about time that the military intervened. I would say the military, they should come and try to, because we have tried. And it did not work. Grace isn't alone in this thinking.

2:32Lots of young Africans at the moment are frustrated about their economic prospects. They're unhappy with the state of politics. And they're also rather religious. While the rest of the world is getting really old, Africa is the youngest continent in the world, and by quite a bit, and will remain so for a while. So to understand where the world is headed, you have to understand how this group is thinking. So, all right, let's start by diving into the discontent here. tell me about the challenges that you mentioned there, economic, political. Well, it's really rooted in the economic. Three quarters of young Africans are struggling to find jobs and good ones, despite the fact that they're better educated than their parents.

3:08They're not doing much better than them. So while in the rest of the world, young people are more likely to be earning a salary than older people, in Africa, that's the opposite. And part of the issue is that young people are joining the labor market quicker than new jobs are being created. And so instead, the people who aren't insecure work are hustling, juggling lots of gigs in the informal sector, and they're fed up. They're exasperated. And that frustration is what's fueling how they view the world. And meanwhile, they're also disappointed with their political leadership. Well, exactly, because they're blaming their lack of good economic prospects on the state.

3:44And by extension, the political systems that haven't managed to bring them much in the way of progress. So I spoke to someone called Joe Asunka of the Pollster, Afrobarometer. And he told me a bit more about how young Africans are losing faith in democracy. And if young people feel, or even any voter, feels like my vote really doesn't count because somebody's sitting there and manipulating the elections in ways that would entrain them in power, that is when people begin to disengage. According to Afrobarometer, 60 % of young Africans are not happy with the way that democracy works in their countries.

4:21That's quite high. They're less likely to identify with a party than their parents were, and even less likely to if they finish school. More recently, a poll called the Africa Youth Survey found that 60 % of young Africans don't think that Western-style democracy is a very good fit for them. When you ask around the continent, the military is the most trusted institution on the continent, across all age groups. Jason, you have to bear in mind, this is the first generation of young Africans you have no memory of the region's most brutal military regimes of the 80s and 90s. And so they're romanticizing some of what those more authoritarian, militaristic ideas might look like in practice.

4:59And so how are all these young people dealing with responding to all of that unhappiness? Well, most likely they're just focusing on the hustle. They're taking individual responsibility for their success and doing whatever they can to make ends meet. On the political side, some of them are still trying to make change from within the system. by protesting, for example. Look to Kenya, to Senegal for recent examples. But the challenge is a lot of those protests go suppressed or co-opted, as you've seen, for example, in places like Mozambique. So in that frustration, a lot of people are also just giving up on politics entirely and turning to God.

5:35Sub-Saharan Africa will soon have more Christians than anywhere else in the world. And in contrast to Europe, young Africans are actually just as devout as their parents, and even more so than their grandparents. Interestingly, Pentecostalism is finding particular appeal with the young in Africa, partly because of how much it feeds into that hustle mentality. You can pray your own way to success. There's still something that feels individualist about it. Now, this kind of piousness and religious dedication is also shaping how they think. So, for example, only 37 % of young Africans think that LGBTQ communities should have more protection.

6:1360 % of Africa's Christians want the Bible to govern national law. So specifically in Pentecostal churches, where we're seeing most of that growth, young people are turning to these big and growing churches for the influence that they're not finding in the political spheres elsewhere. So something that Grace mentioned earlier, but that you haven't so far, is the option simply to leave Nigeria. There seems to be a real push for that too. Exactly. A lot of young people are voting with their feet. It's, again, an extension of that same hustle idea that you can basically hustle your way out of the country entirely.

6:44Over half of respondents to that Africa Youth Survey poll that I mentioned earlier plan to move away in the next five years, mostly for work and for study. There's another even more recent poll than that that showed that over half of school leavers in Africa don't want to stay on the continent once they graduate. Most of them want to go to America, to Britain. For grace, anywhere asides Nigeria will do. The idea that your states have little to offer you, and so you might as well opt out, and also the added allure of the rest of the world that you see on social media because you're so much more connected is basically making people quite keen to get out.

7:20You're painting quite a grim picture here. I mean, to your mind, what's to be done? Ultimately, this is a problem that is rooted in the economic and so the solutions will be as well. As we mentioned in the special report that my colleague wrote about six weeks ago, African governments need to prioritise growth in a way that makes the lives of these young Africans better. in a way that gives them the platforms that they can thrive in. They are savvy, entrepreneurial and super innovative. We're already seeing the ways in which Africa's youth culture has positive impacts across the world, whether that be in music, in tech, in fashion, with restaurants.

7:56For all the bad numbers I've given you, 40 % of young Africans are still optimistic about their futures. And as a fellow young African, so am I. If given the right tools, I think this group could really be a force to change the world. Thanks, as always, for joining us, Ore. Thanks for having me, Jason.

8:28The so-called Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE, has one big job. Simon Rabinovich is our U.S. economics editor. Its goal is to reduce government spending, especially of the wasteful and fraudulent kind. And on a daily, sometimes hourly basis, Elon Musk, the head of Doge, claims that he and his fiscal commandos at this organization, it's not actually a department, have found tons of instances of government fraud. The stuff we're doing with the Treasury Department is so basic that you can't believe it doesn't exist already. He's keen to point out that he's cancelled wasteful contracts, even scrapped entire agencies like USAID, the government's international development agency.

9:14USAID is a ball of worms. There is no Apple. And when there is no Apple, you've just got to basically get rid of the whole thing. As a result, Musk's supporters assume that he is slashing the federal deficit, and Musk himself believes that he is doing that. However, if you look at Treasury data, the story is a little bit different. So Simon, what does the data actually show? Well, we're nearly one month into the Doge cost-cutting drive, and the best kind of high-frequency data that we get from the Treasury is a daily statement of all of its outlays. That details cash withdrawals from its main deposit account.

9:55If you look at that, since Trump took office, Daily outflows have been averaging about$30 billion per working day. Same period last year under Joe Biden, it was closer to$26 billion. In fact, if you go back to January 28th, which is when Elon Musk claimed that he was saving the government upwards of$1 billion per day and rising, actually Treasury outflows have risen since then. Simon, as you say, we're only weeks in. Isn't it a bit early to judge? It is early, of course. We are only basically a month in. Doge is still in its infancy. Outflows, by their very nature, are quite volatile. You'd expect that with inflation, outflows would be higher this year than they were last year.

10:40Nevertheless, Elon Musk himself has said that he is making these big cuts. They're having a big impact early. And on a daily basis, you have Musk, you have Doge publishing statements about this cut and that cut. if you add it all up, it seems like it ought to be noticeable. And so I think it is fair to look at what does the Treasury data actually show so far. And what it shows is that, you know, Musk's big promise, which is that he'll be able to get the government to something like annual savings of$2 trillion, is just extremely far-fetched. Why is that so far-fetched? Why is it so difficult to cut government spending?

11:18Well, in large part, it just comes down to the structure of America's government budget. If you look at it, annual spending comes out to about $7 trillion per year. Nearly two-thirds of that are mandatory expenditures. So things like Social Security, health insurance. You then have roughly another tenth that goes to net interest payments. That leaves you with a little bit less than 25 percent. That's discretionary spending, the thing that goes into annual budget debates. Well, that quarter, roughly half of that goes to defense, and Republicans are minded to increase spending on the military, not to cut it back.

11:57So you're left then with roughly one-tenth of the federal budget that's kind of up for grabs, and that really is what Doge's efforts so far have been focused on. Another way of looking at this is that Elon Musk is trying to shrink the civil service. While there's two million non-military workers in the American government, if you were to fire every last civil servant in America, you would still be saving just roughly 5 % of the annual budget. So you're saying that whatever Elon Musk does, whatever Doge does, the savings are barely going to make a dent in the government deficit? I think if you're just trying to focus on fraud and waste, which is really what Elon Musk has said he is focusing on, it's going to be extremely limited.

12:42You know, this is something that President Trump as well has talked about. He said that maybe just focusing on fraud and waste, you'll be able to save the government something like$1 trillion a year. Well, it's just not that big of a problem when you actually look at it more closely. The Government Accountability Office, GAO, has a very, very close look at this on a regular basis. And their estimate is that fraud losses to the federal government are in the range of roughly$200 to$500 billion per year. So even if you were able to get at all of that fraud, you're still coming out way, way below what Musk has been targeting in terms of cost savings.

13:19And what else does Musk have within his sights to find savings on? Well, I mean, he's going after every little corner of the government. They've got Doge people inside the Treasury looking at their payment outflows. They're beginning to look at the Pentagon. He's been talking about fraud in Medicare and Medicaid as well. So he's looking at every element of the government budget. But then when you examine their announced cuts to date, it's one, relatively scattergun. They're not actually going after the biggest areas of potential savings. And two, really what they're focusing on doesn't seem to be big cost savings, but rather programs, projects, departments that they just dislike.

14:01So they've targeted everything that can be linked to diversity, equity and inclusion, a tiny sliver of the overall government budget. You can look at the Treasury withdrawals for USAID. That, however, is worth in annual terms about$40 billion. That's less than half a percent of the overall federal budget. So you add it all up and it does not really move the needle in terms of the fiscal picture for America. It does certainly move the needle in terms of what the government is able to do, what people think the government should be doing. So I don't want to minimize the impact. But on the fiscal side, it really is quite limited.

14:36So Simon, it sounds like maximum disruption without a huge effect. It is maximum disruption. And it can speak to pretty much any civil servant in Washington, D.C. or beyond these days. And people are running scared. They know that President Trump and especially Elon Musk and Doge are coming for them. They don't like the work that they're doing. They're being encouraged to resign. Everybody who's on probation right now, which comes out to nearly 10 % of the federal civil service workforce, is basically at the point of being laid off. So big, big disruption, basically trying to break the bureaucracy to bend it to President Trump's will.

15:18That is the playbook of the current administration. However, when you get back to, you know, why Doge was founded and what they say their fundamental mission is, which is cutting back on government spending, shrinking the federal budget. On that count, it looks like their efforts are going to come up woefully short. Simon, thank you so much for talking to me. Thank you very much, Rosie.

15:49Rosie, how many days were you off sick last year? I don't actually think I took any days off sick, Wendelin. There was definitely a few when I was snotting into the microphone, which I'm sure was a delight for all. Well, in that case, you'd be very unusual in Germany. Wendelin von Bredow is our senior Germany correspondent. Here, I live in Berlin, people tend to take off at least 15 days a year of sick leave. And some say it's as many as 20 days a year. Wow. Imagine what our bosses would say if we did that. Well, they would probably not be very pleased. And that's the case with German bosses. There's a big debate now here because the economy is not doing great.

16:29and it's an additional big cost on doing business in Germany. It's related to the fact that Germany has one of the most generous systems of sick pay leave in the world. So just how generous is that system? Sick workers get 100 % of their pay for six weeks. And even after that, the insurance company will step in. So there's basically no penalty at all for calling in sick. Plus, it has also now become even easier. In the old days or before the COVID-19 pandemic, you had to actually go and see a doctor and the doctor had to certify that you are too sick to work. Now, at least for the first five days, you call your doctor, he'll give you the sick leave or he'll transfer the data to the insurance company and you can stay home.

17:16And how different is that from anywhere else? It's very different from most European countries. Some are a little less generous. Others are far less generous. Amongst the far less generous ones is actually Britain. In Britain, you don't get any pay for the first three days. And then you get something like 100 quid a week, which is a fraction of the average salary. So it's a real penalty that is imposed on somebody who calls in sick. So how much of a toll is this all taking on the German economy? Well, there's a study by the DIW. It's an Institute of Economic Research that shows the cost to employers.

17:56It's something like 70 to 80 billion euros a year. And there's another study that shows that the cost has almost doubled nominally between 2010 and 2023. In real terms, it has increased 57 percent. It's inflation and a bigger workforce. But it's also related to more people simply calling in sick than used to be the case in the past. So are there countries that could be role models here? Well, as with many public policies, people look to Scandinavia and to Sweden in particular. So in Sweden, workers get 80 % of their salary when they're on sick leave. So that's not full pay, but still much more than they would get, say, in Britain.

18:41Plus, the Swedes have come up with a very interesting model of part-time sick leave. So you can ask your doctor to certify that you are able to work 25 % or 50 % or 75%, which I think helps many people who are not quite able to work full-time but can still contribute. So that's working out really well in Sweden and I think other countries look to Sweden as a role model in that sense. And are there any solutions being discussed in Germany? Once people are used to getting full pay for six weeks, it's quite hard to say, well, it's not the case anymore. So it's a hotly debated topic. But the CEO of Allianz, that's Europe's biggest insurance company, proposed the introduction of a waiting day.

19:24So on the first day, employees would get no pay. And then after that, the pay will kick in. But opponents argue that's not a good idea because it would encourage people who are actually really ill to go to work. And then, of course, first of all, they're not very productive because they're ill. And then it's possibly contagious, whatever they have. And then other members of the workforce would fall ill. So they think it could be counterproductive. Policymakers have the hardest task because they have to find the right balance of protecting workers who are really ill and who should stay home and should get paid properly, but not encouraging workers to stay home just because they don't feel like going to work.

20:05And it's a very hard balance to get right. Fascinating stuff. Wendelin, thank you so much for talking to me. Thank you for having me on the show.

20:26That's all for this episode of The Intelligence. We'll see you back here tomorrow.

20:37Thank you.

21:03Thank you.