Rafael Grossi, IAEA: Nuclear back on the table?

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0:37Rob Young:Hello, I'm BBC presenter Rob Young and this is the interview from the BBC World Service. The best conversations coming out of the BBC. People shaping our world from all over the world. I want to get freedom. I like their freedom. A gender equal world would be a better world for men too. We need assist fire.

1:00Rafael Grossi:We need healing. We need trust. These companies don't really, they don't care what governments do. This is a war. The first thing that we want is the war to end.

1:11Rob Young:For this interview, Raphael Grossi, the Director General of the International Atomic Energy Agency, spoke to me from his office in Vienna. The IAEA was founded in 1957 and is an autonomous international organisation within the United Nations system. Its job is to promote the safe, secure and peaceful use of nuclear technology and to check that nuclear material isn't used for military purposes, including nuclear weapons. Rafael Grossi is a former Argentinian diplomat and took up his current post in 2019 and has had to steer the organisation through multiple challenges. When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, concerns were raised about the prospect of nuclear weapons being used but also about Ukraine's many nuclear power plans coming under attack.

2:06Rob Young:The organisation's resources were stretched further still when the recent Middle East conflict began. The US, along with Israel, have had concerns over Iran's nuclear ambitions for many years and reject the Islamic Republic's claim that the country's nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes. Due to the conflict and Tehran's suspicion of outsiders, it's been incredibly difficult for the IAEA to monitor Iran's nuclear programme.

2:32Rafael Grossi:Let's not forget that Iran continues to be a contracting party to the Nuclear Non-Periferation Treaty. And because of this, they have a safeguards agreement with us, according to which all activities in Iran should be declared and inspected by us. Sometimes Iranian counterparts, they react angrily when I say so, when I remind them that this is not something new. I mean, it's part of their normal responsibilities. Of course, they can reject that. But the fact of the matter is that they are under an obligation, voluntarily assumed by them to have their nuclear activities inspected by the IEA.

3:19Rob Young:Welcome to the interview from the BBC World Service with Rafael Grossi. Let's start on the conflict between the United States and Iran, if we may. That, having calmed down for a while, has now escalated. What are your thoughts, particularly when it comes to the nuclear issue?

3:36Rafael Grossi:Well, of course, when it comes to this conflict, one fundamental truth, and I think it should always be remembered, is that this is how it all started, isn't it? It started with concerns that grew into the decision by the United States that the nuclear program in Iran, in their perception, was leading to nuclear weapons development. Now it has become a multidimensional conflict, but the triggering cause was the nuclear thing. And the basic concerns that existed back then, in a certain sense, remain. Not completely or not in the same way as it when it started. it. And I take as a line of departure, if you want, June 2025, with a 12-day war.

4:36Rafael Grossi:And at that time, of course, that conflict was, I would say, specifically nuclear or aimed at the nuclear capabilities and the infrastructure in Iran. Of course, other targets were included and so on. But what was at the center of it were a number of facilities. Subsequently, attempts to negotiate were tried until February this year. And I was personally taking part in a few of those meetings. And of course, we have a memorandum of understanding. landing. Her status, we are not completely sure. The President of the United States has declared it in a certain sense as terminated, but we don't know whether that is the case or not.

5:34But a few of the fundamental concerning factors remain.

5:41Rafael Grossi:And by this, I refer first and foremost to 440 kilograms some 900 pounds of highly enriched uranium, which is still, of course, in Iran. We're talking about a sizable infrastructure, which, albeit attacked severely, I should say, by the United States and damaged considerably during those attacks, still there.

6:14Rob Young:And I want to come back to the issue of that highly enriched uranium, if I can, in a moment. In recent days, the Iranian authorities have accused the Americans of bombing a partially constructed nuclear power plant at Darkovin in the southwest of Iran. What do you know about that? What was a nuclear power plant hit?

6:32Rafael Grossi:Not yet. Not yet. It has been announced by, and we are aware of Darkovin for a long time. Iran has a number of facilities that they have announced they would have in future. But very little has been done there, some very basic construction work, but it is not a nuclear power plant. At the moment, at least, when the first news of a possible attack were published or were issued by Iran, of course, you know, the IEA, we have also a responsibility in terms of nuclear safety and informing people about any dangers that may exist. Of course, we were, I think, very clear to say from the beginning, well, there's no nuclear material here.

7:26Rafael Grossi:There is no nuclear reactor per se. There is, of course, an intention to have a nuclear reactor at some point and some initial construction work there.

7:35Rob Young:When do you think you'll be able to get inspectors into Iran?

7:40Rafael Grossi:I don't know. I think we should be there already. It should be soon. The MOU, if you remember, said that within this time frame of 60 days to have a definitive agreement, that all activities related to the monitoring and verification in Iran would be carried out under the supervision, and I'm quoting, the supervision of the IEA. as it should, because let's not forget that Iran continues to be a contracting party to the Nuclear Non-Periferation Treaty, the NPT, and because of this, they have a safeguards agreement with us, according to which all activities in Iran should be declared and inspected by us.

8:32Rafael Grossi:But it was good that in that high level, if you want, political document, this was reiterated. So we should go back. This is no doubt. Sometimes Iranian counterparts, they react angrily when I say so, and I remind them that this is not something new. I mean, it's part of their normal responsibilities. Of course, they can reject that. But the fact of the matter is that they are under an obligation, voluntarily assumed by them, to have their nuclear activities inspected by the IEA.

9:08Rob Young:The foreign ministry in Tehran has said that they aren't going to change the way they cooperate with you unless you stop making what they call political statements.

9:18Rafael Grossi:Well, again, of course, I will not enter into an argument with a foreign minister or the foreign ministry, because sometimes those statements are mostly attributed or from the spokesperson, not from Minister Arachic himself. I don't know this one you are referring to. But first of all, that is an opinion. They are entitled to have an opinion. Everything I say, I say in my capacity and within my authorities as Director General of the IEA. So they have their opinion, but they also have responsibilities and obligations and they have to comply with them.

9:53Rob Young:You mentioned before the 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, which Iran is thought to have. Do you agree with the Americans that it is dust trapped underground?

10:03Rafael Grossi:Well, I think, if I may say so, it's like some form of poetic language. It's not dust, you know. Of course, first of all, that is in gas form. So it doesn't matter too much. I think it is a way of expressing, I think it was a colourful expression by the president, to say that, you know, this is in tunnels, and there has been damage and debris, and there is an amount of material there. The material is important. This is highly enriched uranium at very close to weapon level grade. So for us as IEA, it is very, very important to go back and to check it.

10:49Rob Young:And what's your view as to what should happen to it?

10:52Rafael Grossi:Well, that is for Iran to decide, really, because it belongs to them. it's part of a negotiation with the United States. So I shouldn't maybe, as DG of the IEA, say what they should do with it. What they should do is declare it and have it inspected and not divert it to any end which is not peaceful. This is what they should according to the law, not according to the DG of the IEA. I am the guarantor, I'm the guardian of those commitments and those obligations, nothing more, nothing less. As to what they should, there are alternatives, as you know, that they have been discussing. Downblend it, ship it out somewhere.

11:41Rafael Grossi:But this is a political decision that they must take.

11:45Rob Young:Do you think the world is a more dangerous place from a nuclear perspective today than it was just a couple of years ago?

11:53Rafael Grossi:I think so, because it is obvious that, first of all, We have this war, which has been triggered by concerns, and I'm not saying whether these are justified or not. I'm trying to be objective here by concerns about a nuclear program. We have another war which is very, very important in Europe between the Russian Federation, a nuclear weapon state, and Ukraine, a non-nuclear weapon state, where there is a nuclear dimension to it which is very, very important on and around the Saporizhia nuclear power plant where my inspectors are stationed and which I have visited, as you may perhaps know, several times.

12:37Rafael Grossi:There have been, during this long conflict, more than five years now, moments where issues related to possible use of nuclear weapons or the existence of radiological weapons were mentioned. To that, you have to add the ongoing debate, perhaps this growing impression that due to geopolitical divides, countries are having second thoughts about non-proliferation or their heretofore non-proliferation obligations, in the sense that many countries were relying or are still relying on nuclear umbrellas which they might feel are not so protective as they used to be in the past. So undoubtedly, to your question, and without wishing to exaggerate things, there is a perception that the nuclear factor is back on the table and it is growing in its relevance in terms of decision-making, in terms of what nations do.

13:52Rob Young:And so does your organisation then, the International Atomic Energy Agency, need more powers because it is often described as an accountant, not a policeman? And if the world is more dangerous from a nuclear perspective, surely we need a policeman in charge, not an accountant?

14:08Rafael Grossi:Well, I would not agree with this view that we are an accountant. And in any case, if we are an accountant, we are, first of all, a quite effective one. And secondly, we are one that tells the world what is happening, what is really happening. And let's not forget that the IEA is the institution that provides this technical analysis. But at the end of the day, it's nations, the ones taking decisions. So more powers? I don't know. I think the powers that the IAEA have, which are quite unique in the international UN system in general, when exercised with firmness but with fairness, are very, very effective.

15:00Rob Young:You're listening to The Interview from the BBC World Service. Rafael Grossi spoke to me from his wood-panelled office at the IAEA headquarters in Vienna, Seated in a large black leather chair, he kept swinging from side to side as he spoke. But he wants to give up that seat for, metaphorically, an even bigger one. Rafael Grossi is currently campaigning to be the next Secretary General of the United Nations. The current head of the UN is stepping down at the end of the year. And Grossi, who is regarded as one of the frontrunners in a race of half a dozen candidates, has plans to shake up the UN if he gets to lead it.

15:41Rob Young:So let's return to my conversation with Raphael Grossi. Now, you would like to be Secretary General of the United Nations when the current Secretary General's term ends at the end of this year. If you were in that job, how would you try to bring about an end to the conflict between Iran and the United States? Diplomacy.

16:01Rafael Grossi:That's the only way. And I say that not on the basis of any wishful thinking. I say that on the basis of my own experience here. I believe that conflicts of this nature can only find a durable, sustainable solution when you have agreements that provide a degree of stability. And what we are lacking here, and we are seeing it, is that reaching the point where you have a stable situation in international relations is something that you can achieve only in two ways, violent way through wars or the diplomatic way, peace, negotiations, you know, as Churchill said, rather than war, war, war. So the situation like the Second World War or other conflicts where total victory, unconditional surrenders, and things like this used to happen seem not to be as achievable now.

17:05Rafael Grossi:Look at what is happening on the Strait of Hormuz, for example, or the use of drones or many multi-dimensional aspects of warfare that make outcomes less than outright 100 % clear. And when you lack this black or white outcomes, then you need to reach these plateaus of stability in different ways. And of course, diplomacy is that. And of course, the UN, warps and all, is what we have, is the global institution par excellence, which is indispensable, continues to be indispensable.

17:49Rob Young:Well, you would need to persuade Donald Trump, of course, with your diplomacy to bring the war with Iran to a conclusion. Do you agree with him in a sense then when he told the General Assembly last year that the United Nations is not even coming close to living up to its potential?

18:06Rafael Grossi:I think he's not the only one who thinks that, mind you. I think many people agree with this idea that the UN we created 80 years ago to save succeeding generations. You remember the words of the preamble of the UN charter. So I think this idea, and I think it's interesting that you mentioned him, because people say the US do not believe in the UN. I don't think that is true. What they are saying, and some others, many others, is that the UN is not living up to the potential, to the expectations we have on it. If I believed that the UN is hopeless, I would not be a candidate to lead it. If I am so, it's because I believe that something can be done.

19:00Rafael Grossi:It will not be a panacea, obviously, but it can be a much better institution and it can help because it's about adding value. It's not about the institution itself. It's what it does.

19:13Rob Young:And so what is the one big change then that you would like to bring in if you were to become Secretary General?

19:18Rafael Grossi:There are so many things. But if you ask one thing, it's that, it's restore the UN ability to be adding value, to be an accepted interlocutor for the pursuit of peace, which is not.

19:33Rob Young:Because we've had nation states taking on the role that many people say the United Nations should have taken on in, for example, the conflict between India, Pakistan, the civil war in Sudan. Is that latter conflict I mentioned, one that you as Secretary General, would put your back into attempting to end?