MI Rewind: Investing in the Metaverse and Technology Trends w/ Beth Kindig

26:10I have 10 to 15 more drawdowns in my future. So I have to be really careful around obviously knowing that these companies will resuscitate and they will go even higher. Great example, I am down 50 % or more in Roku for the fourth time. And that stock had four-digit gains, 1 ,000 % gains for me at one point. It's obviously less now because of the current sell-off, but I fully expect that to be a four-digit winner. So to get a 1 ,000 % gain, you have to be willing to hold for 50 % drawdowns. We're going on two to three of those for some of our other winning positions. So, oh, Nvidia, and my goodness, that one's been all over the place.

26:51I actually was having an interview the other day with Charles Payne, and he mentioned how Nvidia went from$12 to$1 in the 2008 financial crisis. Could you imagine getting Nvidia at$12? And so, you obviously don't want to buy at the very top. You want to buy in the middle, You also have to be realistic that nobody buying in the middle is going to get out without losses temporarily. And then the market will boost you back up. Why? Because they're quality tech companies. That's the thing that people need to really understand is if you know what these companies are doing, if you had any idea where GPUs were about to go, like with NVIDIA, the parallel processing, the fact that they could run inference and training on one chip, if you had any clue about that,$12 would have been a steal,$6 would have been incredible.

27:38And$1 would have been probably very unrealistic because nobody really ever catches the bottom. So just to frame that conversation, right, is buying a falling knife, the fundamentals should be really strong. So I'm a tech product person. I've been doing tech products for a long time, at least 10 or 11 years in Silicon Valley, which is obviously the most competitive market. And I pulled in a really sharp financial analyst. He's incredible. He looks at every little line item and can model where this tech company is about to go. He has sharpened up our convictions. And then we have a technical analyst who is saying, hold on tight, we're going to go down and then it's going to go back up.

28:17He's predicting it's February 3rd, just to reference when this conversation is, he thinks we're going to go one more leg lower and then that should be maybe it for this big sell-off. So those kinds of roles combined makes it to where we're not catching a falling knife. I probably can count on one hand the amount of positions we've closed for a loss that we never revisited, meaning every company that I've really covered and held has some gains within one to two years of holding it. That's pretty exceptional, right? Because technically, you're supposed to hold for seven years. I started moving from the private markets and covering corporate enterprise products for enterprise companies over to the public markets in 2018.

28:59And all of my 2018, 2019 recommendations are well into the mid triple digits. So that tells you how long you have to hold. And we do a ton of research. So how do you know you're not catching a falling knife? If you're an individual investor hearing this right now, I would either do that research, find people that will do that research for you. We're not the only people that do great, incredible research for retail. I think that retail individual investors need to be really good about finding the right people and sticking with them is probably the way to not catch a falling knife. The common theme I'm getting here is do your homework and recognize those trends, as well as understand that all the best investments go through these massive bull and bear cycles, Tesla over the years, Amazon, Netflix, you name it.

29:51You'll see them get hyped up and probably overshoot to the upside and then overreact to negative news and at times overshoot to the downside as well. So investors have to be ready to hold on during that volatility. Could you talk a little bit more about your fund and the trends you are most excited about? Yes, we are always really keen on a couple of things. One is trends fall out of favor, and then they come back really quickly if they're tried and true quality trends. Ad tech has been peeting down so badly that I think we will reference these months for years to come. Ad tech is very cash efficient.

30:31And so we've kept allocation there. And even though it's been brutally beat down, this is one where it doesn't add up. Advertisers are going to continue to advertise. And if the rates, CPMs, whatever it might be, go down, more advertisers tend to step in. We saw that with the March of 2020 crash, where eventually people just stepped in and bought the ads because now you had instead of$11 on Facebook, you had seven or eight, that's a bargain for a lot of advertisers. So they're going to step in. And I'm not into Facebook. I don't own Facebook. I'm just using that as an example. There are other ad tech companies where it doesn't really make much sense to completely penalize them for these transitory headwinds.

31:13So we'll look for something that's greatly out of favor, and we will hunker down and hold some of those positions, especially if it's quality. It's been around, these industries have been around a long time. Where you can get into trouble doing that are like pre-revenue SPACs or a supplier for electric vehicles that has 50 competitors. I actually looked up an electric bus at one point, did a competitive analysis, which is huge in tech. You always have to look at the competitors. Nothing is more competitive. No industry is more competitive than tech. So the competitive analysis has to be really strong.

31:46And I was doing that on Proterra. I'll just say the name. It doesn't matter which electric bus though, because they're all in the same boat. There are 30 competitors for electric buses right now, it's like, how do you even begin to determine which one will take the lead? That's too much competition for too small of a pie of the market. And this isn't an industry, electric vehicles, where you can model. This industry has been around 50, 60 years. Advertising has been around forever. I mean, that's print, radio, whatever, television, and now mobile and connected TV ads, and it keeps going. So I'm just trying to give you a contrast as to like, we will be attracted to trends that model well and are cash efficient, that are beaten down, but we will not be attracted to trends that are losing money, have no revenue and have a ton of competitors and are very startup, early stage startups really that are now on the public markets.

32:38Then the other thing we'll look at is the economic macro environment. I mean, obviously, cloud is deflationary. If there's one thing you get from this interview, I would say that cloud is deflationary. So it's really interesting because there's, I would almost call it alternate reality where the market wants to tell us they're going to get out of high beta because of inflation. You get the number one place that will be still standing once inflation runs its course or whatever it might be is going to be cloud. Companies save a lot of money by adopting cloud products. So now their budgets look a lot better.

33:15Cloud infrastructure as a service has high costs. So any companies that drive that down are going to be very popular over this next year. So that's another one where it's like, it doesn't quite match. The narrative just doesn't match reality. Another place where the narrative doesn't match reality that we, that's our sweet spot. I love when a narrative does not match reality. Obviously the chip shortage has hurt some companies, but if you look at the financials, a lot of chip companies are doing quite well. And this chip shortage noise has been going on for minimum one year, right around at least a year, I'd say.

33:49And I was telling our members that a year ago that this is not a chip shortage, this is a surge in demand. So you got to like reframe that. It's like, is this investable? Of course, because there's so many industries that are relying on chips at this point. Industries that have never really needed chips at this level. Automotive is a great example. It's exponentially grown. that the chip companies are getting overwhelmed and the supply isn't happening as quickly as needed. So how could that not be bullish? So I think that the market scared people. And meanwhile, the most steady performers last year, everyone wants to say it's FANG, but it wasn't.

34:26It was semiconductors. It's just retail is not attracted to semiconductors because they're really tough tech. We are comfortable analyzing tough tech, like more technical stuff. And that's a sweet spot for us. And there's a lot of emerging semiconductor companies that are starting to take market share. So that can be confusing, I think, for retail and individual investors and professional institutions as well. But those are the places we like the most. So to wrap it up, I would say really cash-efficient companies that are beaten down and are safe because the industry has been around for longer than you and I have been alive.

35:01Those tend to do okay. And then you've got your cloud, deflationary, and then you've got semiconductor surge in demand, not shortage of supplies. I understand that there are some supply constraints. I get that. But what I'm saying is like, it's overwhelmed because of how industries need chips now. Okay, so all of that. And then you've got these already proven winners that I think also get beaten down. And I like that spot. I like it when a management team is the best at what they do. I would put Zoom and Roku in that category. So there is some uncertainty there. The market has clearly priced that in.

35:33Why would the top product fail? I mean, it's almost like a lot of people might watch football or something. And it's like, would you ever gamble in Las Vegas that Tom Brady is going to fumble? Sure, it does happen. But you're talking about someone on the field who has clearly proven themselves. I would not bet against them. Even if maybe you're on the sidelines, that's great. I understand stepping aside while the market sorts it out. There are a few that we have decided to hold a strong conviction on no matter what the market says. And I tend to do that if I think the management team has already done the unimaginable, which Roku has always taken the number one position against Google and Amazon.

36:16Like, how did they do that? That's crazy. And they've still done it. And then you've got Zoom who came in out of nowhere for a lot of people. We were already in Zoom. Actually, we got into Zoom January before COVID, because I actually said, and this is in print, that in September, that Zoom would go viral. And then it went viral. And the reason is that the product had a viral component, a viral mechanic. And I put that in a new search paper in September. And then that's that technical analyst, my portfolio manager, came in and said, we're not going to buy in September, we're going to buy in January.

36:46And we literally bought the lowest price you could possibly ever have in Zoom. And then we did that pretty decent in Roku too. Not the lowest price, but the lowest price after its IPO, after it went up to 60 and went back down to 30 its first time. So anyways, it's like, if we're going to go back to this analogy, Tom Brady doesn't ever always throw a perfect ball. Babe Ruth didn't hit every single baseball. Investors get really discouraged when they see some situation. In this situation, technically the investor is Babe Ruth. If you're going to go up and hit the ball, it is impossible to hit every ball and make a home run.

37:19So you've got to be understanding of what does success really, truly look like in the markets. And I think people have a warped understanding of that, which is that you hit every ball every time and you can't ever revisit that ball, so to speak. So in this case, investors could be really discouraged in the current environment right now. And what I would say is, wait, come back, let's talk in a year and let's see what happens. Because I don't believe for one minute, that tech is not going to be the leading industry over the next 10 years. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors.

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41:12That's theinvestorspodcast.com slash tip-finance. All right, back to the show. You've talked a little bit about the digital ad space and you're talking about how you look for those places in the market where the expectations aren't matching reality. And it reminds me of Facebook's earnings yesterday. I'm not invested in Facebook. What I do know is they are growing really fast and they're trading at something like a 17 times trailing PE, which is well below the market multiple. So it's this higher growth company in an industry that's still growing at a very fast pace, but it's just one of those companies that seems where the expectations don't really match reality.

41:53So that's something that I would personally like to dig into further. I'd also like to follow up on one of your points you made there. You said that Zoom has this viral component to it. Could you expand on that? Yes. So we actually published in September of 2019 about Zoom's viral component. And we fully believed it would go viral because you could share the URLs. You sent me one and I just click and I'm in. That's viral because there's zero friction. And to remove friction from communications creates a viral component because now you're sharing a link, I'm sharing a link, we're sharing it over there, we're sharing it over there.

42:30And nobody has to sit there and download a bunch of bulky software on their computer or their phone in order to join a call. That may look simple, that is incredibly hard to do. And the amount of vision that CEO had to have there, people are underestimating. So communications is something we all do. It's at the core of how however many people are on this earth, 7 billion, go about their day. You can go viral if you're serving such big needs for everyone, every man, woman, and child in the world. I mean, that's your viral moment is Facebook as a social media company, 10, 15, whatever it was years ago, was able to give a product that every man, woman, and child could use.

43:14Here's the catch though, is that the market has beaten down Zoom on the consumer story. And technically Zoom was never trying to serve the 7 billion. They were creating such a great enterprise product that if you're a CEO or you're head of marketing or whoever it might be is on the plane, you need to join a call, they can just quickly join a call. I don't know if you remember the Cisco WebEx years, but it was so hard to always figure out like, okay, did the software update, did this happen? Now I'm on my mobile, whoops, I didn't have Cisco downloaded. It was just so clunky. And he came from Cisco, of course.

43:45So now you've got your whoever it might be, but maybe it's the marketing person who set up the company-wide call, or maybe it was operations or something, they can just send that to the 500, to the 1000, to the 10 ,000, the 20 ,000 people, and they can all immediately get on the call. That's a big deal. Actually, people don't realize how big of a deal that is. And then of course, the video quality and things of that sort. So when I said Zoom could go viral, what I meant is they had removed so much friction from the product compared to its competitors that sharing those links was a very easy thing to do among thousands of people if you're at a big company or among your friends and family.

44:24Those are the kinds of product things that we drilled down into because you're saying, how do you make sure you're not catching a falling knife? I think it really helps to know what the company does. I think it's easy to know what McDonald's or Walgreens does. Tech is another world. And knowing what the product does is key. And then some of this other stuff about the fundamentals and the financials. That makes sense. Now, you know that the macro environment and the Federal Reserve's monetary policy has a big impact on gross stocks. And that's something that's been in the headlines a ton as of late.

44:57The Federal Reserve states that they want to try and raise interest rates this year. How do you think about the effect that might have on gross stocks? Has the market priced in the hikes that they're going to have? Or how do you think about that? Yeah. So that is actually something the portfolio manager writes really long and depth reports on. So that's really a better question for him. What I would say though, from my perspective, is that obviously the Fed does regulate and introduce monetary policy, but they don't innovate. The Fed does not innovate. Basing your investments off the Fed, if you're truly a believer of innovation like I am, is a losing game.

45:36Now, we obviously don't want to fight the Fed. Nobody wants to fight the Fed. Those are two different things. There's a lot of nuances I would say within how to approach that. We also aren't fully convinced there will be as many rate hikes as the Fed has said there will be, but we'll see. We aren't white knuckling type analysts. We are very flexible. We change if we need to. We try to be very dynamic, but technically speaking, we think there's one more leg lower and then we think we should be pretty much done with this one, so this sell-off. So look for that, I guess. And if something changes, then we'll be agile enough and flexible enough to address that.

46:14I don't know if that answers your question. But one thing I guess I would add to that is we are actually seeing some oversold levels compared to dot-com time. If you took the percentage of NASDAQ and Russell that is off their all-time highs, we're pretty getting close to dot-com level. Totally two different worlds that we live in today. So most tech companies are growing 40 % or more, at least the ones that we invest in are. And no tech companies were growing like that when the dot-com bust happened. In 2010, tech overtook oil as the world's most valuable industry. Tech's role has completely changed.

46:48And so it's really tough or unfortunate to have that narrative out there because the bounce back... So we had a perfect trial run with COVID. We had extreme economic conditions. The whole country shut down. You could only go to the grocery store. We saw every business shut. What do you think that did to the budgets? They plummeted, right? Most companies were not bringing in any revenue. Who let us out of that? Tech. Why? Because it drives down costs. So that was a great trial run, I think, for what role is tech playing after 20, 30, whatever, 20, 25 years now? a whole different role, right? If we had March of 2020, the economic shelter in place with HETS.com or whatever it was, the.com companies, tech would not have let us out of that.

47:40So I think that overall, what the market will have to contend with is these are your bigger smart money institutional investors. Do I put my money in industries that have tons of headwinds? that are very sensitive to consumer or commodities and bonds that don't yield nearly what tech can yield? Or do I put it in these quality companies that continually show up and put 40 % or more growth? Microsoft came in strong. Google came in strong. AMD came in crazy strong. So now, yeah, Facebook missed, but I've talked about IDFA for years. My first article ever was that in 2018 for the public markets, I've written tons before that for tech startups, but was Facebook has serious privacy issues.

48:31Why are public investors not understanding that? That Cambridge Analytica was not going to go away, that that was the moment that Facebook's privacy issues would forever impact the company. I was really strong on that because I could tell the public markets did not know how they used third-party data. They use third-party data in ways that no other company uses it. So if third-party data is coming under attack, Facebook's hanging out there as the only company that has been using it in that manner. So long story short, I don't think Facebook's myth is indicative of anything. I think it's indicative of how they've been using third-party data since really 2014 when they launched Audience Network.

49:10And my prediction in 2018 was that this company was going to lose its access to third-party data, which just happened in the earnings report. So that's a very unique story that is not representative of tech as a broader industry. So Facebook's got to come back from that. They got to figure out what's their next move now that third-party data has been shut down or diminished, at least on iOS. So basically, long story short, this earnings season is going to be interesting because people are saying tech is too high beta and it's too risky. And yet tech is going to be the only industry putting up big growth for the foreseeable future.

49:47So let's see who wins that tug of war. I think it's going to be tech. I hope that makes sense because in 2010, tech's role really changed, became the most valuable industry over oil. So we've had trial runs in March of 2020 to see what that looks like. With these technology names that you own, volatility is something that you're very familiar with. So I wasn't surprised to see Bitcoin in your fund. Bitcoin is currently down roughly 50 % from its high, like many growth and tech names. What's your view on Bitcoin for 2022 and for the longer term? I could not be more bullish on Bitcoin. I would put it up there with like an NVIDIA on current conviction.

50:28I think eventually it will top out and we will probably take a lot of gains. We see it definitely above six figures for sure before we take any gains. And I think that that's really helpful, right? Not only do we show our losses in real time, but we show when we take gains. So we did actually trim a lot in the 60 ,000 range because we felt like it was going to go through a pullback. I don't know. I mean, I'll put this out there. I don't know anyone that has allocated better to Bitcoin alongside stocks than us. And that's because we are so drilled into the technical sentiment. We have a chart that we put out as to when we bought, when we sold, when we bought, when we sold.

51:04And we're frequently buying very close to the bottom, selling close to the top. It is a key position for us. Our portfolio could get hammered if we weren't careful because we have a 10 % position. The other thing I should throw out there is our allocations are very key. Our 10 % positions are really well protected. We'll take a hit on a 2 % or 3 % and that's important for people to see because one day those 2 % to 3 % will become a 10%. But we really closely manage our largest positions and Bitcoin is one of our largest positions. So boy, how many drawdowns have I been in with Bitcoin? I mean, I had said four on Roku and beyond that with Bitcoin at this point, I don't even care.

51:44And I'm not trying to be calloused. And I do have somebody who, again, knocks, who trims at the 60s, buys at the 30s. But let's say we get caught up and we didn't quite trade that perfectly. I just don't care. I don't need to be concerned because I know Bitcoin will eventually go over six figures. So I think, again, trying to hit every single ball perfectly, not even Babe Ruth could do that. So be careful of trying to never see a loss on your record, short-term, near temporary. So Bitcoin, buckle up, get used to it. It's an emerging trend. Crypto is an emerging trend. And don't let Wall Street and the other ones bully you out of a great position.

52:23And that's really the key thing I would say around crypto and blockchain. Crypto on blockchain, I think I had mentioned, is like the one where Wall Street got it wrong. Wall Street's going to keep getting it wrong. And I think you got to look at track records and stick with the people who have really strong track records. Again, we're not the only ones by any means. I did start giving away free Bitcoin coverage, I think around the 10 ,000 mark. And we bought on our premium side at the 7 ,000 mark. It went down to 4 ,000. Looks a lot like some positions look like now, which is like, we didn't really stress it.

52:55We said Bitcoin is going to do great long-term. Does anyone care that it was down almost 50 % today back when it was at 7 ,000? No. And so that's the kind of reminders. I think transparency is so incredibly important is that we show you that we hold those losses. And that's so incredibly important. We're an actively managed portfolio, completely transparent. We beat ARK over and over again. We were positive in 2021 after being up triple digits. We were positive in 2021 and we beat ARK in 2020. So So Mark was down, I think, 30 % and we ended up positive. So that comes down to allocations and making sure your top 10 % allocations are going to win this year.

53:36That's key. So that transparency, I think, is something we are all really confident on. And when someone says, oh my God, somebody tried to give us a hard time because we were down a little bit on a Shopify position. And I'm like, oh man, buckle up because in a year or two, Shopify is going to be a leading tech stock. It's a thing contender. I mean, I think Shopify could be one of the most valuable companies too in the world next to Nvidia, like that kind of thing. So do we care about a loss on Shopify? Absolutely not. I lose zero sleep over that. I hope that makes sense around Bitcoin. I want to really put it into, it's a psychological mindset thing.

54:13It's one that I've never stressed, even when the market was on our back a lot with how much of a scam I think it was the kind of thing was what it was called. And listen, global populations don't like the fiat system. And it's incredibly secure. It's more secure than 10 ,000 banks combined. And it serves a real need. El Salvador, this was incredible. They gave away$100 or something of that sort for free Bitcoin. And more people got a crypto wallet than have a real bank account. Like, whoa. And that goes back to every man, woman, and child kind of TAM, total addressable market thing. Bitcoin has that.

54:49And a lot of people are really concerned that it'll get regulated. And I think it's going to be really hard without much attention from the masses. Art talks a lot about the adoption on company balance sheets, especially public companies. Are there any catalysts you foresee for Bitcoin or is it just overall global adoption? So I had a few catalysts written out in 2019 for the free newsletter. The first one was, I actually said economic uncertainty, because you and I comfortably live in a country where for the most part, our dollar is safe. We put money in the bank account, it's safe. But the far majority of the population in the world does not feel safe putting their money in the bank and their currency can be very volatile.

55:36So that concern and those fears around their money, what I'm trying to say is like, you can, it's called product bias. When you only buy stocks that represent your choices. And I would say Bitcoin is very popular in countries that are lower GDP because there's so much uncertainty in their financial systems. And we don't quite have that here. So maybe it's harder for us to wrap our head around why we saw that happen in El Salvador. But we had kind of predicted that because Venezuela went through something similar earlier many years ago, where the inflation was so bad and And their currency was so weak that even the extreme volatility of Bitcoin outperformed their currency.

56:16And so we were seeing a flood of Venezuelans buying Bitcoin. So economic uncertainty, and I was saying even now in the United States, with everything the Fed did with liquidity, could be concerning to a lot of people, including myself. So to hedge that, Bitcoin is a good option. The other thing is after economic uncertainty, mobile payments was another catalyst we had outlined, which is getting easier and easier with the Lightning Network, look to square, block, whatever. They're a great example of paving the way for mobile payments. Obviously, there is a lot of work to do there. Bitcoin is not very stable.

56:53So we'll see some altcoins probably serve that need where it's more stable. So you can basically be a backend moneymaker kind of thing. And so that's one is fixing the stability piece, but mobile payments. And then the other is institutional adoption, which I think has been largely solved for. We had seen Fidelity as an early adopter in the institution space when we first wrote about it. They were all over Bitcoin when Chase and Jamie Dimon were bearish. And I was leaning more towards Fidelity because I think their CEO is a woman, actually, which is pretty neat. So basically, I would say those are the key things.

57:27and we've ticked some of those boxes already. Economic uncertainty probably has been ticked. And then it might be ticked even more as time goes on. And then institutional adoption. So what would be left is mobile payments. Yeah, it's very exciting. I think a lot of funds that only hold stocks are very skeptical about Bitcoin. So it's really cool talking to someone like you where you have the flexibility to have the open mind to go into a new asset class that adoption rates just growing very fast. So Beth, with that, thank you so much for coming on to the podcast. I really appreciate you sharing your insights on the metaverse, emerging trends, Bitcoin, and growth stock investing.

58:08Before we close out the episode, where can the audience go to learn more about you and the IO fund? Yeah, thanks for the question. I would go to our site and sign up for our free newsletter every week, we send out really quality analysis for myself and to financial analysts. And sometimes the portfolio manager does macro. So we work really hard on that free analysis to make it accessible to everyone. We also have a premium product that allows people to see every trade we do. Our trades are texted to your phone through SMS and they are emailed to you. So real-time portfolio management, and you'll see when we're buying and when we're selling.

58:46and it's also really great probably to see even with this current sell-off, there's key positions we've been building. So that's the kind of thing we do at premium side. And then you get really end up the deep dive analysis on some of the stocks we don't talk about on the free side. So that have been winners. Awesome. I'll be sure to link all those in the show notes. Thanks a lot, Beth. Really appreciate it. Thank you, Clay. Really appreciate it. All right, everybody. I hope you enjoyed today's episode. Please go ahead and follow us on your favorite podcast app so you can get these episodes delivered automatically.

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