MI Rewind: Studying Superinvestors, Investing Checklists, & Seritage Growth Properties w/ Tom Botica

16 Jun 2023 · 51 min

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Podcast Episode Summary: MI Rewind - Studying Superinvestors, Investing Checklists, & Seritage Growth Properties w/ Tom Botica

Podcast Overview

  • Title: MI Rewind: Studying Superinvestors, Investing Checklists, & Seritage Growth Properties
  • Host: Clay Finck
  • Guest: Tom Botica, value investor and content creator
  • Focus: Exploring investment strategies, assessing market corrections, and a deep dive into Seritage Growth Properties.

Key Themes and Learnings

Market Corrections

  • Understanding Market Corrections:
  • Investors often detach from their core strategies during market volatility.
  • Long-term investors can view market corrections as opportunities to buy quality companies at lower prices.
  • Advice for Investors:
  • Maintain a watchlist of investments to revisit during corrections.
  • The importance of keeping a rational mindset amidst market fear.

Margin of Safety

  • Definition:
  • A concept introduced by Benjamin Graham, emphasizing protection against downside risk by buying assets for less than their intrinsic value.
  • Implementation:
  • Assess the worth of a business versus its market price.
  • For example, if a stock is trading at $160 and you believe it's worth $200, it presents a margin of safety.

Importance of Checklists

  • Checklist Use:
  • Tailored checklists can help investors avoid mistakes by prompting them to consider essential factors before investment decisions.
  • Checklists can include various items like share count changes, management alignment with shareholder interests, and comparative sales data.

Seritage Growth Properties

  • Company Overview:
  • A REIT formed from the spinoff of Sears, currently managing 170 properties and focused on redevelopment.
  • Investment Thesis:
  • Potential valuation based on liquidation value is estimated around $30/share, while current trading prices are around $9.
  • The discussion includes the challenges of negative cash flows and the need for careful evaluation of redevelopment timelines and financing strategies.

Risks and Considerations

  • Market Sentiment:
  • The market has been skeptical of Seritage due to past performance and ongoing debt issues, leading to its undervaluation.
  • Strategic Changes:
  • Recent management changes have provided more clarity on the company’s future, but there are concerns about rising development costs and interest rates.

Key Takeaways

  • Investment Strategy:
  • Individual stock picking can outperform market indices, especially during periods when mega-cap stocks dominate market gains.
  • A disciplined approach to valuation and investing with a margin of safety can yield long-term success.
  • Long-Term Perspective:
  • The importance of patience and the understanding that not all investments will yield immediate returns.
  • Community Engagement:
  • The value of collaborative learning and sharing insights among investors to enhance decision-making processes.

Resources and Further Engagement

  • Tom Botica's Platforms:
  • YouTube Channel: [Investing with Tom](https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestingwithTom)
  • Podcast: [Investing with Tom Podcast](https://www.youtube.com/c/InvestingwithTom)
  • Twitter: [@TomInvesting](https://twitter.com/TomInvesting)
  • Related Resources:
  • Consider joining the TIP Mastermind Community for in-depth discussions on stock investing.

Conclusion This episode emphasizes the need for a well-structured approach to investing, focusing on intrinsic value, risk assessment, and the potential in undervalued stocks like Seritage Growth Properties. The insights from Tom Botica serve as a valuable guide for both novice and seasoned investors seeking to refine their strategies in a fluctuating market.

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Transcript

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0:00You're listening to TIP. On today's show, we've started to reshare some older episodes that are my favorites for a few reasons. One, we get a bunch of new listeners each week, so the new listeners may not have heard this episode before. Two, even if you've been listening for a while, you may have missed this episode when it originally came out. Or three, even if you've heard it before, it can be a great episode to learn from again. If you've already heard this episode or you're not interested in hearing it, feel free to just skip it. There's no harm in that and you can pick up with our new episodes next week.

0:34All right, guys, that's all I had for you for this new intro. Everything going forward is going to be from the original show. Hope you guys enjoy it.

0:45But on the other hand, there's going to be periods of time where probably the exact opposite happens. Maybe you have a handful of extremely large companies that make up a third of the index or a quarter of the index or something. And maybe they just go sideways for five or 10 years. That's something that has happened and will happen again, I'm sure.

1:05On today's show, I sit down to chat with Tom Boddicka. Tom is a value investor and studies super investors such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Monish Pabrai, Guy Spear, and many others. He also releases content on a wide range of investing topics on the Investing with Tom YouTube channel and is also the host of the Investing with Tom podcast. During the episode, we chat about what investors should keep in mind during a market correction, what it means to invest with a margin of safety, why investing checklists can be useful for value investors, the case for individual stock pickers outperforming the market indices, what Seritage Growth Properties does, and why it's potentially a compelling investment, why Seritage is trading at what appears to be well below its liquidation value, and much more.

1:54All right, without further delay, I hope you enjoy today's episode with Tom Boddica. You're listening to Millennial Investing by the Investors Podcast Network, where your hosts, Robert Leonard and Clay Fink, interview successful entrepreneurs, business leaders, and investors to help educate and inspire the millennial generation.

2:21Welcome to the Millennial Investing Podcast. I am your host, Clay Fink. And today, I am joined by Tom Boddicka. Tom, it's a pleasure having you on the show. Thank you so much for joining me. Yeah, I appreciate you inviting me on. I know we were talking a couple of weeks ago and I just sent an email or something. If you ever absolutely scrape in the bottom of the barrel for guests, I'm happy to come on. So I didn't quite expect an invite this quickly, but I appreciate it. I ran into your YouTube channel and I knew you'd be a fantastic guest. And you recently had a video talking about the current market volatility.

2:53And it was pretty timely with what we've seen in 2022 so far. So what are some of the things investors should keep in mind during a market correction? Yeah, it's really interesting. So my investment strategy is very much kind of bottoms up stock picking, trying to focus on individual businesses by the mid-discount to intrinsic value as I'm sure many of the guests have explained on this podcast before. So it was a little bit unusual for me to get probably slightly more macro in a video like that and talk about broad market valuations and volatility and fluctuations in stock prices and things. But I think for whatever reason, people do tend to just suddenly kind of detach themselves from what their core strategy was when these things start to happen.

3:36So I sometimes go in recording those videos feeling a little bit like the grumpy old man, just trying to calm people down where They're kind of running around like headless chickens and things. So yeah, I mean, the fundamentals of what I said in that video are fairly straightforward. I mean, what we're trying to do, assuming that you're a long-term investor, I guess if you're a trader or speculator or something, it's maybe a little different. But if you're someone like me, I mean, I'm in my late 20s now and plan to be investing in stocks for a very long time. And I guess what I really want to do is accumulate as much ownership and great businesses as I can.

4:09And if I can buy those great businesses at cheaper prices than I could yesterday. That's a positive thing from my perspective. A little bit of short-term pain, I think as long as you're a net buyer of stocks over the long-term can be quite beneficial. I personally have a watch list of investments that I've studied to companies over time. I think many of them are relatively simple businesses and are going to be larger in 10 or 20 years than they are today. And what's always held me back is just the price I pay for them. I'm maybe a little too cheap to pay up for some of these companies sometimes.

4:39So it's a really good opportunity when we do have volatile markets for people to refresh their memories on maybe some of the companies that they might've looked at 12 or 18 months ago, maybe update some of the evaluations. And then as I think we'll get into maybe later in this episode, I have an investment checklist that I work through to try and keep me rational through these periods of time as well. So I think certainly if you're someone that wants to liquidate your portfolio or something in the next year or two, obviously, So you don't want stock market crashes at all. And that's probably an asset allocation issue more than anything.

5:10I don't think you should be in stocks if you have that kind of mindset. But I think it creates a lot of opportunity for the long-term buyer. Yeah, I really like those points you hit on. Stock market corrections tend to give really good buying opportunities. It's a good chance to revisit your watch list. And to add on to that, something you mentioned in your video is that no one can really predict these corrections. There are so many factors that go into the market. No one can really accurately predict when these are going to happen. So we should always look to just buy great businesses at fair prices.

5:44And when those good opportunities come along, be ready to pounce on them. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, we can look back through history and say, well, it would have been a great idea to be buying stocks very heavily in the financial crisis or in the tech bubble. But the trouble is, we don't know about those kind of key points in time until a couple of years after the fact. So you have to just take the opportunities that are presented to you and try and think with a clear head and a rational mind as much as you possibly can. We are all human beings and we're not quite as kind of savage, emotionless investors like Warren Buffett or Charlie Munger, but we can try our best to be.

6:20Yeah. You'll hear from these people that you call super investors, call it Warren and Charlie or some of the others that you talk about a lot on your channel. And many of them are a part of the Value Investing Community, they talk about investing with a margin of safety. Could you talk to our audience about what it means to invest with a margin of safety? Yeah. I mean, that's a concept that originated from Ben Graham and the intelligent investor, probably I think in the 1930s or 40s, the intelligent investor came out. So that's been a concept that's definitely stood the test of time. And I mean, essentially, margin of safety is all about trying to protect yourself from downside.

6:57And typically that's done by paying a price that's less than you think that particular asset is worth. And this doesn't just apply to stocks. It can apply to bonds or real estate or whatever kind of cash producing asset you might be buying into. And we hopefully all know the basic maths that if you experience a 50 % loss, you then have to make a 100 % gain from that point to kind of get back to where you started. So protecting downside is very important. There's an old Buffett interview from the late 1980s, I think it was, where he talks about the first rule of investing is don't lose money. And the second rule is don't forget the first rule.

7:30So that's really what margin of safety is all about. It can kind of take a few different forms. So if you're investing in a company with a lot of physical assets, say a real estate business, for example, maybe you're buying into that company at less than what you think that real estate portfolio could be liquidated for. Maybe you're doing more of a discounted cashflow type analysis where maybe the company doesn't have a lot of physical assets like perhaps a Facebook or a Google or something, really the value of that is largely intangible. And it's about the cash flow that computer code at Google and so on can produce over time.

8:04So you're really looking at it similar to how you might assess a rental property and you're saying, this is the amount of cash I expect that particular company to throw off over time and what's an intelligent price to pay for that. And a margin of safety is simply paying less than what you think is a rational price to be paying for that asset. So it has kind of a nice double benefit, hopefully, if your analysis is correct, that is of protecting from downside, but also potentially creating extra upside as well. Like the typical modern portfolio theory sort of approaches in order to get high returns, you have to take higher risk.

8:37And it's not really common to get kind of these asymmetric situations with low risk and high return. But that's what Buffett and Munger have been doing their entire careers. And I've done it by buying a dollar for 50 cents is a very common way of putting it. So that's how I think about margin of safety. That makes sense. I think some important points there are you're determining what you think the business is worth, and then you're comparing it to what the market is offering you. So if Apple's trading at$160 a share and you think it's worth$200 or$250 a share, then you might consider buying that because it's trading at a price that is below what you believe it's worth.

9:16If you believe Apple's worth$160 and it's trading at$160, then you likely wouldn't be purchasing that because there's no advantage and there's no margin of safety. And I think another important point there is adding conservatism to every purchase you're making with your investments. So if you think Apple's worth 200 bucks a share and it's currently trading at 160, then that adds some conservatism, whereas the term margin of safety comes in. Yeah, absolutely. I think it's important to take a conservative view when you're doing valuations. Again, it's kind of another layer of margin of safety in these things.

9:49There are businesses like an Amazon or an Apple where, maybe not Amazon, that's had a couple of, I think, 90 % drawdowns at certain periods of time, but perhaps even then it was still a good idea to have bought it at the top, in the dot-com bubble. There's businesses where you could have paid almost any price and it would have worked well. But to me, that's a much more difficult game than kind of just hitting base hits, I guess, to give you a classic Buffett baseball reference. I think that's an easier game than trying to hit home runs with high flyers and paying high valuations. And intrinsic value calculations, I think there are formulas you can run and so on, but I think it's important to build in those layers of conservatism just because you can run numbers in a spreadsheet or something.

10:28I think that sometimes gives people a false sense of precision. Intrinsic value is not something that's on a financial statement so that you can calculate to several decimal places. Again, if Warren and Charlie were analyzing Apple or even maybe Berkshire Hathaway to understand when they think buybacks might be a good decision. They both know Berkshire Hathaway extremely well. And I think the two of them would come up with a different intrinsic value number for that same company. So it's part art, part science. And I think we're really not trying to buy a dollar for 95 cents. I think that gets into margin of error territory rather than margin of safety.

11:03We're really looking for the big discounts and the big opportunities. The fat pitch is as Buffett might describe it. Now, like I said, you study many of these big investors. Some others include Guy Speer, Monish Pabrai. You actually had Guy Speer on your show recently, and I thoroughly enjoyed that conversation. And many of these guys develop an investing checklist. Why do you think it's important that investors use a checklist when selecting companies to buy? Yeah. So the checklist is a relatively new development for me. And it's something that I picked up from Monish Pabrai and Guy Spear. They've both talked and written pretty extensively about the use of checklists and investing.

11:44And it's really about trying to avoid mistakes, I would say. I'm sure you've experienced this and a lot of other people listening in have experienced this. And I'm no exception either. I can research a company, maybe I read a write-up on Value Investors Club or something. Can I get super excited about a particular company? And then I almost want to rush out and buy it without perhaps having done the complete work on that particular situation. So a checklist is really just a way to slow you down and stop you from making errors that you or potentially someone else that you like and admire, mistakes that they may have made in the past.

12:16So I have an evolving checklist. I think there's about 30 or so items on there at the moment. And it's really just to make sure that I think through these certain points. And I think checklists are quite individual. They have to be things that you personally maybe tend to forget about or that you may have messed up on in the past with a particular investment. So for me, it might be things like what is the share count done over time? Is there excessive dilution that I haven't even gone into the financial statements and looked at? What is the debt maturity profile look like over the next few years?

12:47And can they service that debt comfortably? What's management compensation look like? Do their incentives align with shareholders or are they incentivized to maybe make decisions that might be really beneficial for the short-term performance of the business, but maybe harm the long-term performance. These are all the types of things that I add to a checklist. Another one that's been really useful for me recently actually is instead of buying this new stock, would I rather just own more of an existing investment? That's something that's tripped me up in the past. I've put money into my third or fourth best idea or 10th best idea or something rather than putting more money into my first or second best idea.

13:21So those are things that I've stumbled on in the past or messed up on in the past and those kind of go on the checklist. And then there's also the whole idea of ideally it's much cheaper to learn from other people's mistakes than your own. Admittedly, those lessons get said into your head a little bit more when you make the error and you lose the money, but there are common mistakes that large, well-respected investors had made through their careers. And if we can learn from their mistakes before we go out and make them ourselves just to share that lesson, then that's quite a useful approach as well.

13:49So I also have a few of those types of items on the checklist. One from Geisphere, for example, would be, is the business basically very reliant on the price of a particular commodity, for example? And if the price of that commodity were to move up or down 50 % because commodities can move pretty wildly, does that kind of break the investment thesis? Those types of lessons. Yeah. You mentioned adding to your third or 10th best idea instead of investing in your first. And it makes me think of balancing a portfolio. And how I balance my portfolio is something I'm contemplating all the time. Especially when it comes to index funds and individual stocks, I set a rule for myself.

14:30My 401k through my work, I just have that invested in index funds and I don't really touch it and invest it in anything else. So you alluded to this earlier. Do you only invest in individual stocks or do you balance out with index funds as well? I'm curious what your take is on this. My perspective on that has changed a little over time. So I'm based in New Zealand. We obviously have a slightly different set up with retirement accounts and things over here, but I basically do the same as you in my, what we call KiwiSaver equivalent of a 401k or IRA or something over in the US. That's basically just an index funds.

15:04Part of that is because the options for investment are very limited over here and that's kind of the best option I have. So that's what I've done. In some ways, I think about that as maybe a little bit of an insurance policy. Maybe if I'm not as good at picking individual companies as I think I am, I'll still have something sitting there. And then outside of retirement accounts, I have had ETF investments that I've made in the past and those still sit in my portfolio. I've never touched them. I've just got them set up to reinvest dividends and that sort of thing like a lot of people do. And that will snowball away as a portion of the portfolio.

15:37But more and more, I've become comfortable with putting money in individual companies. I don't know that it's the right strategy for everyone. I think you have to really enjoy studying businesses and valuing businesses and reading annual reports and listening to conference calls and studying industries and so on. And to me, maybe I'm just a bit of a nerd, but I find that really fun. I know a lot of people don't. Indexing is a great option for people that don't necessarily enjoy that stuff. That will probably get most people to the finish line. I think actually consistently contributing money to investments in many ways is a lot more important than the actual returns that you generate.

16:12And I think a lot of people sometimes forget that. But I enjoy studying individual businesses. And that's the vast majority of my portfolio now is individual companies outside of retirement accounts, at least. Yeah, I think it just reminds me, some people just do it for the love of the game. They love studying businesses and that's just what they love to do. And one of the items that's been on my mind recently is the past few years, a lot of the overall stock market's growth has been in just a few names. Something like a handful of companies account for a fourth of the S &P 500's gains. When it comes to the stock market, I sometimes have a hard time justifying my stock picks because it's so difficult to beat the market, which isn't always some people's goal.

16:56Sometimes they just want just steady returns over time and not such a bumpy ride. But I'm curious what your thoughts are on that topic. Is it worth the effort to try and pick individual stocks, especially nowadays with all of the different market forces that are going on that really can make it more difficult? Yeah, it's been a really interesting time. More or less, if you had owned Apple and Amazon and Google as a big chunk of your portfolio, you've probably outperformed. And if you hadn't, there's a pretty reasonable chance you've kind of underperformed. That's really been the story of the last decade.

17:28So that's a really good argument for indexing because you automatically get exposed to the really, really large winners that drive a lot of the returns. But on the other hand, there's going to be periods of time where probably the exact opposite happens. Maybe you have a handful of extremely large companies that make up a third of the index or a quarter of the index or something. And maybe they just go sideways for five or 10 years. That's something that has happened and will happen again, I'm sure. And then that's probably a period of time where you're better off kind of looking under the hood a little bit of something like the S &P 500 and hunting around in some of the smaller companies and doing well.

18:01The ASX over in Australia has been a pretty good example of that up until the past handful of years. The ASX performance for the overall index has not been spectacular, but there have been people who can kind of look under the covers at individual companies and find great businesses. And a part of the reason why the ASX has done that is because it's very commodities and banking kind of heavy, but there are a handful of tech and software companies and high return on capital type businesses that have done well. So it probably depends on the market a little bit. And I try and set myself the framework more around a particular hurdle rate.

18:36So that's going to be different for different people. But maybe I'm going out there and saying, when I make an investment, I want to conservatively, I want to be confident that I can get 10 % a year out of this business or whatever that hurdle rate is for you. I think that's probably a better approach for most people. I've got the compound 26 shirt on, which is Motus Price number plate because his hurdle rate was 26 % a year. So I think having those absolute return kind of hurdle rates can be a very useful sort of mental model in markets like this. And over the long term, I think that kind of plays out pretty well.

19:07The stock market performance for the S &P 500 has just been spectacular the last decade. And I guess the just basic maths will tell you that that's probably not going to continue forever and returns are likely to come back to worth a little bit. So that's where hurdle rats can be really handy. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. Even Einstein had blind spots. That's why modern science is built on the idea of peer review. Investing may be more art than science, but that doesn't make peer feedback any less valuable. The tricky thing is finding qualified people who are interested and willing to help vet your investment ideas.

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22:13And for a limited time, you can use code STOCKS15 for a 15 % discount at checkout. All right, back to the show. You mentioned the Australian market, and that makes me want to bring up the international piece. You live in New Zealand, I live in the United States. As someone who lives in New Zealand, I'm curious how you view investing in the US versus other countries. If I'm buying an individual stock, I almost always have home country bias because I'm most familiar with the US. There are many great companies here and I think investing outside the US can introduce these additional risks that really I can just avoid by just simply sticking with the US.

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22:54How do you approach investing in the US and New Zealand, investing in other countries? Are you mostly a US focused investor or how are you approaching that? Yeah, I'll invest more or less anywhere if I think I have a good enough understanding of the culture and the business. I think the culture part is probably the hardest bit to fill in if you're not really familiar with that country. For people outside of the US, most people can get there on the US culture pretty easily, I would say. We are exposed to a lot of US companies and maybe it's not the best way of understanding the US, but we get a lot of film and media and so on come out of the US and things.

23:31So I think we get a pretty good handle on kind of what the US is all about. So that's kind of a simpler enough one for me to get my head around. And then New Zealand, New Zealand's obviously kind of my backyard and I've been to Australia a few times as well and very similar culture to New Zealand. So I can get there on a lot of those kind of companies as well. So I'll look anywhere as it stands right now. The bulk of my portfolio is actually in the US. That's more of a consequence of just the opportunities that have come up more than anything. The US has some great resources like 13F filings, for example, where we can see what great investors are buying.

24:04And that's a really good way to kind of source ideas. And that has led to more investments in the US for me. But if something came up in New Zealand and Australia, I would actually probably prefer to buy those. There's some tax differences for me between buying something in New Zealand and buying something in the US. In the US, for example, you guys have effectively double taxation when you get paid a dividend. The company pays money on the profits and then you pay money on the dividend as kind of personal income. We don't have that in New Zealand. When we get paid a dividend, we have something called an imputation credit that kind of comes along with that dividend, which is essentially like a tax credit to avoid that problem.

24:38Australia has the same thing. They call it franking credits over there. When I buy an Australian company, I can't actually benefit from those franking credits. So there's a few things to kind of keep in mind around that from like a technical perspective and taxation and so on. But I'll look more or less anywhere if I think I can get my head around it. Yeah, that makes sense. I hear of many people in the US that are looking international to try and find that additional value. There's been a lot of talk and chatter lately about China, and people are kind of hammering down on Charlie Munger on his Alibaba pick, and some other people are invested in Alibaba as well.

25:13Is China a market you're interested in at all? I'm curious what your take is on them. Yeah, I have an investment in Alibaba as well. So I take this with a grain of salt, I guess, when you hear my answer. But China, I think, is probably one of those ones that is really starting to get on the fringes in terms of me being able to understand the culture and that sort of thing. For that reason, I think investors probably have a simpler time sticking with the really large, more well-known Chinese companies like an Alibaba or maybe a Tencent or JD.com, that sort of thing. When you start getting into Chinese micro cap territory, that's basically an automatic no for me.

25:50It's just really hard to understand what the competitive dynamics might look like in a micro cap Chinese fintech company or something. So those are kind of an easy pass for me. But I think with the larger companies, you can get your head around these things. With companies like Alibaba, there's been some great books written. There's interviews with a lot of the insiders of the company, obviously previously Jack Mar, but he's less and less kind of involved with the core Alibaba business now. So I can kind of get there on those larger companies. The other thing is that, and Charlie Munger said this at the Daily Journal meeting a couple of days ago, the large companies in China are just flat out cheaper than the similar types of businesses in the US.

26:32And of course, there's risks that come along with that. A lot of people will know about the VIE kind of structure when you buy into something like Alibaba, where you're really buying a derivative type ownership of Alibaba through a Cayman Islands entity. So there's certainly additional risks, but the companies by and large are cheaper. And assuming that if you have a view that these risks aren't going to materialize, and that's something that people can debate all day long, but if you have a view that these risks are kind of a little overblown, then if they're cheaper and they're potentially even slightly better businesses as well, that can lead to better long-term returns if you're willing to swing at those things.

27:11Yeah, it really just takes the additional research to really understand the business and the environment it's in. And like you mentioned, the culture as well. Let's shift our attention to a business you believe has a ton of margin of safety, as we discussed earlier, and that's Seritage Growth Properties. This is a holding that Guy Spear and Monish Pabrai have according to our TIP Finance tool. I think this is an interesting pick that I don't think investors will find too often nowadays. Could you tell us about what Seritage Growth Properties does and how it even came up on your radar. Yeah, sure.

27:48So a slight correction there on the Monish Pabrai front. So Monish Pabrai does still have a holding in Seritage, but he's actually recently been selling out of it. So he has a large enough stake in the company to be forced to file a 13G filing, which is basically if you own more than 5 % of the shares outstanding, you have to report any activity in terms of buying or selling those shares much more quickly than something like a 13F. I forget the exact length of time, but I think it's within four or five days, something like that. They have to file a 13G. So in January, Pagrai sold about 26 % of his position in Syritage.

28:24And just two days ago, literally as we're recording this, he sold about two thirds of what he had left after that January sale. So it seems that Pagrai is on the way out, which is quite interesting. Guy Spear has a YouTube channel with another investor called Matt Peterson, who runs a relatively small fund, but with a phenomenal track record. And those guys were still talking kind of quite positively about Syritage. Both of them are in that position. So the Pabri sale is an interesting one to me. I sort of wonder whether it's an opportunity cost thing and he's maybe found just something more interesting and maybe Syritage was a kind of lower conviction idea for him.

28:59I'm not 100 % sure. I know if you follow Pabri on Twitter, you'll know he's just been to Turkey and maybe you found something interesting over there. I'm not too sure. But that's the super investor ownership in terms of the actual business. Searitage is one that's been floated around value investing circles for a number of years now, and it's been a pretty poor performer. It's basically a REIT, a real estate investment trust that was spun out of Sears pre-bankruptcy. So they currently own about 170 properties, largely ex-Sears stores. When the spinoff first happened in, which I think was about 2015 or so, a lot of the real estate was still rented out to Sears and Sears tenants were paying about$5 a square foot in annual rent.

29:39And the story at Searitage basically is they are redeveloping and even densifying a lot of these different sites. Oftentimes you have sort of a big portion of land with a Sears store in the middle and huge parking lots kind of around it. So in many situations, they're bowling those over, putting up apartment buildings or larger retail complexes and that sort of thing. And like I say, densifying it so there's more leasable area for new tenants. And the new tenants over the past few years have been paying about four times the rent. They're paying$20 a square foot, even pushing close to$30 a square foot in some cases recently.

30:12So that's the story with Syritage. They're still very much in this redevelopment phase. They're selling off some of the properties that they view as less attractive for redevelopment. They don't think they can earn high returns on deploying cash into those properties. And they're taking the proceeds from those sales and putting them into their larger premier developments and that sort of thing. So that's the process and it's very much still playing out and the stock has been getting slaughtered as I've been going through it. So I think for the longest time, Sera just kind of floated around anywhere from maybe$30 to$50 a share, that sort of range.

30:46When the pandemic hit, it went all the way down to as low as I think about$5 a share. And that's kind of when Pabrai was buying, maybe in the$5 to$7 range. Guy Spear was actually in it pre-pandemic. So he was probably in somewhere in that$30 to$50 range. And currently, I think it trades at$9 or$10. So it's still very much down there. I've recently gone through the exercise of literally one by one getting comparable sales for every address that Syritage has. So I've got no affiliation with this company or anything, but there's a website you can go on. And there's a few of them. There's one called Crixie was the one I used and you can basically take an address for a Seritage property, throw it into Crixie and get comparable sales data.

31:25So you can look for similar size properties with a similar use. Oftentimes just down the street, there's been a huge amount of sales volume in commercial real estate recently. So there's pretty good comparative sales data out there. And when I went through that process and tried to value each of these properties, I was landing on roughly about$4 billion in real estate for Seritage all up. they're quite heavily indebted. So they have about 1.6 billion in debt to Berkshire. They actually paid off, I think, 150 million of that recently. I apologize if I'm saying too many numbers here and it's confusing people listening, but we have about 4 billion in real estate.

31:58We have call it 1.6 billion in debt to Berkshire, a little bit of preferred stock in there as well. But I guess what I'm landing on after going through all that work is a liquidation value for serotage growth properties. If they were just to sell everything today, pay off the debt and distribute the process to shareholders. North of about$30 per share versus a current stock price of nine. Now, there's a few things hanging out of Seritage maybe which we can get into with the debt and the development timelines and so on, but that's the current situation. So it seems like a lot of margin of safety at the moment, although Seritage does currently have negative cash as they go through this redevelopment process.

32:38So it's very heavily shorted. There's clearly a lot lot of people that have the view that Syritage is just going to burn money right through to bankruptcy. And that's kind of how it's going to play out. But if you have a view that they can come out the other side of this okay with a lot of cashflow and real estate, then the upside looks pretty attractive too. You had mentioned off air that there's a property in Texas that accounts for much of the real estate that they own in terms of the market value of that real estate. Could you talk more about that piece of land specifically? Yeah, sure. And this is one of those developments that has a ways to go.

33:13One of my subscribers, actually, this is one of the cool things about doing YouTubers. One of my subscribers actually did a drive-by of the Dallas property the other day and sent me some photos. So it's quite cool to have a little bit of intel in the region. But yeah, so like I said, SRG has about 170 properties. Within the 170, they probably have about five or six that are really going to drive a lot of the value for shareholders, assuming that they can get through this redevelopment process. One of them is a property in Dallas. That's really the big one. There's plans that you can look up in terms of what they think that might look like.

33:45It's what they call one of their premier mixed use properties. So it'll be a mix of apartments and retail, and I think potentially some office as well. And that is planned to be about 2 million square feet in leaseable area. So if you start to try and arrive on some of the values of what something like that could be worth, 2 million square feet times, looking at market rents in the area for a blended kind of average rent across all these different types of real estate, maybe $25 a square foot. Cap rates on that type of real estate are probably conservatively 7%, something like that. You could argue it's closer to 6%, which is the equivalent of a higher PE ratio, I guess, just in real estate terms.

34:26You could quite easily land on that property being worth half a billion dollars potentially. And I just mentioned that I think the full 170 any properties are worth maybe$4 billion. And if half a billion is coming from one property, that's pretty serious for Syritage. And that's not the only premier development. That's definitely the biggest one, but there's a handful that will definitely drive a lot of the value for SRG. Yeah. You mentioned that one property itself could be worth half a billion and the stock right now is trading at something like$400,$500 million. So just that one property out of the$170, what are they developing that property in Dallas to be specifically?

35:02Is it apartment buildings or what is that there? I'd have to refresh my memory on the exact plans, but my understanding is that's going to be a mix of things. So from memory, it's going to be about 400 or 500 apartment units, quite a bit of retail space and something else that I'm blanking on as well. I can't quite recall if it's office or another use, but it's a whole mix of things. And that's kind of the theme across all of their premier developments. And yeah, like you say, the market cap is about 400 or 500 million at the moment, but you've got to keep in mind the debt. they've got$1.6 billion in debt.

35:32So the enterprise value is closer to low$2 billion, something like that. Yeah, good point. My initial reaction when hearing about a company like Certage, many of these value investors are saying the liquidation value is well above what the stock is currently trading at. My question is why? Why is the market valuing it so much lower than where it's at? The market doesn't have any free lunches according to the efficient market hypothesis. So what are the risks with seritage? Yeah, it's a funny one. I always try to take the manga idea of invert, always invert. So I actually have a video on YouTube that people can look up called something along the lines of why seritage growth properties sucks.

36:14And I just went through all the reasons, all the things that could possibly go wrong. And yeah, there's definitely some hair on it. I mean, I don't quite know what else to say. There's a lot of debt, 1.6 billion in debt to Berkshire, they have recently renegotiated the terms on that, but it is quite expensive debt. I think they pay about 7 % interest on that debt. They have an additional$400 million they can borrow from Berkshire, which they haven't drawn down on yet. And they can only borrow that if they meet certain net operating income targets. But in the meantime, they still pay 1 % interest on that debt.

36:45And previously, all of that was due, I believe it was mid-2023. And Syritage is not going to easily be able to come up with$1.6 billion in cash unless they liquidate a lot of their properties really fast. And their intention is to liquidate properties to fund redevelopment projects and so on. So that's definitely something hanging over them. Like I said, they've renegotiated that debt structure a little bit. So now 800 million is due mid-2023. So only half of that amount rather than the full 1.6 billion. And the other 800 million is due mid-2025, I've, I believe. So that gives them sort of an extra two years of runway.

37:21And the CEO, Andrea Olshin has been at the helm maybe 18 months now. She has given a lot more clarity to shareholders on what their actual plans are. There's a document you can now look up for I think it's the Q3 financial supplement, which lays out every single property and it says, these ones are going to be retail. These ones are going to be apartments. These ones are just categorized as other, which to me, that means they're going to be sold to generate funds for the redevelopments. Previously, we didn't have that. So that's very useful from a valuation perspective. There is a lot of concerns about just the sheer price of redevelopment.

37:54We see every single day at the moment on financial media about supply chain issues and raw material costs and so on. So the developments are likely to be more expensive and probably take longer than initially planned. Eddie Lampert owns about 40 % of the shares, more or less through some of his partnerships and people have mixed views on Eddie Lampert. So that's kind of hanging over it as well. And there's been negative cash flows for a long time. And I think in a lot of ways, people have kind of just given up on seritage and they've either thrown it in the too hard basket or they just maybe can't see the light at the end of the tunnel.

38:29I'm not sure, but it's certainly not risk-free. It reminds me a little bit of BP a few years ago when they had the big oil spill. And these numbers won't be right, I don't think, but it should give you a feel for the situation. I think, let's say BP was trading at roughly$40 a share kind of pre-oil spill. And it very quickly shot down to about$20 when that happened. There were a lot of people that had the view that it was going to zero. There were a lot of people that had the view that this is a short-term event, they'll pay some big fines, but it'll probably go back to$40 after that. So you have sort of people in two camps.

38:58They think it's either worth$40 or they think it's worth$0. And what we know for sure is that it's definitely not worth$20, but that's where the market had priced it. So So I think there's maybe a similar situation happening at Syritage where you've got two people on different sides of the aisle and the market price kind of just lands somewhere in the middle. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. Hey, it's Sean O'Malley, just popping in with a quick message. If you like this podcast, well, I've got great news for you. We've got a handful of other shows for you to explore, from learning about Bitcoin to embracing a richer, wiser, happier lifestyle.

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42:38All right, back to the show. One of the questions with Seritage I had was, I see so many of these companies end up getting bought out, especially when they're trading at a value much lower than their current market price. So say someone buys the shares that they think it's a great deal at 20 bucks, it trades down to nine where it's at today, and it ends up getting bought out at a premium, to call it$12. Is that a concern for you at all? Or is that even a possibility for Seritage? Yeah, Guy Spear has done a talk on this exact topic and he listed that as what he thinks is the biggest risk at Syritage.

43:14He thinks that there's a chance he gets kind of bought under essentially. I don't think that anyone would have the capacity to do that other than Eddie Lampert because he owns a huge amount of the shares. So if anyone tries to buy out Eddie Lampert at these prices, he's probably going to say no, but there's a chance that Eddie could do it. So I think that is one of the larger risks in terms of the upside disappearing for SRG. Now, Tom, you've looked at the liquidation value of Seritage, but I would think they want to try and go towards the path to profitability. They've had negative cash flows over the last few years.

43:49When do you expect that to turn positive? Is it a couple of years, four years? What are you thinking on that? It's a little bit of a tough one to say exactly. I would be very surprised if it's not within the next two years. I mean, it'd be nice if it was as soon as possible, but it's sort of thinking through what's realistic. It looks like the first stage of some of the bigger developments should be online either right at the end of 2022 or early 2023. They are going to continue to sell some properties and a lot of those are empty buildings right now, which are bringing in no rent, but still do have some kind of carrying costs.

44:25So we'll drop off some expenses from that. And then the other part of the equation, which makes it kind of tricky from a cashflow perspective is they may get to a point where they're sort of profitable, assuming that they have no more capital expenditure. Like if they were just a pause or redevelopment, cashflows would be positive, but they're still going to have to recycle a lot of capital out of the properties that have been sold into funding newer, rather expensive developments. So some of the work that other investors have done on this, like Matthew Peterson is a guy that's done a lot of work on this topic.

44:55And he still thinks Syritage has about $800 million to spend on redevelopment. And I think that number involves some debt servicing as well. So it's really hard to pin down exactly. And they haven't given exact guidance on this, although they have started to be more detailed in some of their redevelopment timelines. So yeah, I'm hoping those cash flows turn sooner rather than later. But I'd be surprised if they are fully cashflow positive in the next six to 12 months, but not too long after that, we should hopefully be turning the other direction. Will they need to be issuing more debt to cover all of these construction costs coming up and redeveloping these properties?

45:35Yeah, the debt is one thing that's definitely hanging over them. They have been quite clear in saying that they want to move their finance from the overall serotage growth properties level with the big loan from Berkshire down to more of an individual property financing level. They did an investor presentation mid to late last year suggesting that they thought with their debt to book value type ratios, they should be able to get property level financing and more of the 4.5 % interest range versus 7 % that they're paying now. Perhaps the equation has changed a little bit with inflation potentially driving some higher interest rates.

46:12We'll just have to see how that one plays out. But they still do have a lot of liquidity they can make available from selling properties. So when I went through that property by property valuation exercise, all of the properties listed in the category kind of other, which again, I view as kind of properties to be sold, it looks like they have approximately kind of 800 million that they can make available from selling those properties. And of course, that's not something they can just grab tomorrow, like it is a process to sell a large number of properties, but that's definitely a lever they can pull and will likely pull.

46:43So to answer your question, I think there will probably be a shift in debt from down to the individual property level, whether the actual total amount of debt goes up or not. I would be surprised if it goes much higher than where it is now, but I don't think it's completely out of the question. And they've already paid off a small amount of debt. So they've paid off about 150 million of that 1.6 billion. So I think that's something that we'll continue to see certainly leading into mid-23 when the big$800 million in debt payments is due to Berkshire. That's interesting. Now, the stock was trading roughly$38 a share prior to the COVID pandemic.

47:23And today, like we mentioned, trades around$9 a share. At the time of this recording, why hasn't the stock recovered to go anywhere near the pre-COVID levels? Is it the markets not like in the commercial real estate it has or what do you think is going on on that front? What has changed from then to now? Yeah, it's really unusual to me, actually. I think the, and obviously all this stuff is simpler in hindsight, but the pre-pandemic prices kind of look a little rich to me. I'm talking liquidation value numbers potentially lower than where it was trading in pre-pandemic. So perhaps that's part of it that it was kind of a little rich at that stage.

48:02We have seen the likes of Pabrius start to sell and he's a big owner in the overall company. So perhaps that puts him down with pressure and Pabrai is the shameless cloner. And there's a lot of people that shamelessly clone Pabrai as well. So perhaps there's a bit of a flow on effect of a lot of people selling there. In terms of the actual story at Seritage, I mean, from my view, it's been increasingly positive. The new CEO has given us much more clarity on what they intend to do with the different redevelopments versus scaling. They've given a lot more clarity. And when I say a lot, you know, they've said they want to move down to the individual property level financing.

48:35We think we can get 4.5 % interest. That's kind of in contrast to the previous management where they didn't even say anything to do with debt. We have a loan from Berkshire and it's due in 2023 or whatever. And that's kind of all we got. So, you know, to me, I think the story at Syritage has only really improved in the last 18 months. So it is very strange to see the price kind of still at a level where it's at now. I wonder if it's rising interest rates potentially flying through to commercial real estate prices. Maybe there's some fears around that just in real estate stocks generally that are keeping SRG a little depressed and they are very leveraged.

49:13So if we have a 10 % move in commercial real estate prices, that's going to be exponentially greater for the EBITDA. So hard to pin down exactly what Mr. Market's thinking, of course, but those are a few things that come to mind alongside perhaps higher construction costs for the redevelopments as well. Right. That is interesting. Now, my final question about Seritage, I think of what Warren Buffett does. He likes to get ahold of great businesses at reasonable prices and pretty much hold them for a very long time. But I'd be surprised if that was the case with Seritage for you. So do you have a price target in mind which you'd consider selling your position or how do you think about that?

49:52Yeah, that's an interesting one. And it's funny you bring up Warren Buffett? We haven't mentioned it in this podcast, but Warren Buffett did own 5 % of Seritage. I'm not sure if you knew that or not. There's actually a couple of different share classes at Seritage. So there's the class A shares that trade publicly, and then there's Eddie Lampert's operating partnership units. So if you combine those together, there's about 55 million shares. But in practice, there's less class A shares, outstanding 50 odd million, and Eddie Lampert can convert those on a one-to-one basis from his operating partnership units into Class A shares.

50:21So when he's sort of done that conversion, I think that's diluted, or at least from a 13G filing perspective, I think that's diluted Buffett under that 5 % threshold where he doesn't have to report anymore. So it's a little bit tricky to say whether he actually still owns it or not, but I think he was certainly in there at some point. And it's interesting because he's on the other side of the equation with debt from Berkshire. So he's kind of involved personally on the ownership of SRG and then with Berkshire on the debt side. So that's interesting. But yeah, in terms of long-term plans for SRG, there's kind of two ways to value these real estate companies.

50:52So there's the comparable sales data kind of process, which I've gone through recently. And then really the best way to be doing it once we have cashflow in real estate is to value it based on that cashflow. You know, understand how much rental yield that SRG is throwing off, you know, putting market kind of cap rates on that and then subtracting out the debt, just like you might value a rental property really. And there's still, I think, well, there's still a lot of uncertainty about exactly how much cash seritage could potentially throw off. So the selling decision in the short term for me, I think it would be a little bit of a miracle personally, but if it somehow shot close to what I think the liquidation value is in the short term, I would reconsider.

51:32Longer term, I think it's once we have a much clearer understanding of what cash flows kind of SRG throws off, we can get a more concrete understanding of what it might be worth. and then I'll have to reassess. So selling is a lot harder than buying. I don't know if that really answers your question, but those are the things that I'm kind of thinking through, at least with this one. Tom, I really appreciate you coming onto the show. I really enjoyed this conversation. Before I let you go, where can the audience go to get connected with you? Yeah, I appreciate you inviting me on. I have a few different kind of platforms that I put content on.

52:07The main one is definitely the Investing with Tom YouTube channel. I post two to three videos a week on all things investing with the odd personal finance video thrown in there. I've recently started the Investing with Tom podcast, which is only a project I kicked off last year, but I had the opportunity to speak to some great guests. William Green, for example, who I know you guys are working with now and also just had Guy Spear on the podcast last week, which was a surreal experience to be perfectly honest with you. But I do have the Investing with Tom podcast as well, which you can find on all the standard audio platform, Spotify and Apple Podcasts and so on.

52:42And there also is a video version of that on YouTube. You can follow me on Twitter at Tom Investing. I'm getting a little more active on Twitter. And the final one I'll just plug briefly is I actually have a collaboration YouTube channel called Punch Card Investing, where I'm one of five YouTube value investor types that get together once a week and do a one-hour live stream on a particular topic. So we're going to do one about four or five hours after us recording this here podcast. We're going to be talking all about the recent 13F updates. And that's always fun to get some live interaction and kind of take questions from people watching as well.

53:18Good stuff. I'll link all of that in the show notes. And those two guests you mentioned, William Green, I had him on the Millennial Investing Podcast. He's a fantastic guest. And I listened to your conversation with Guy Spear on your podcast. I'm happy to see your podcast is doing well. And it's just a really fun opportunity to chat with these quote unquote super investors. So Tom, thanks again for coming on. Yeah, I appreciate it. This was good fun. All right, everybody. I hope you enjoyed today's episode. Please go ahead and follow us on your favorite podcast app so you can get these episodes delivered automatically.

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From the publisher

In this rewind episode, Clay Finck chats with Tom Botica about what it means to invest with a margin of safety, Seritage Growth Properties, and much more!
Tom is a value investor and studies superinvestors such as Warren Buffett, Charlie Munger, Mohnish Pabrai, Guy Spier, and many others.

IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN:
00:00 - Intro
02:44 - What investors should keep in mind during a market correction.
11:10 - Why investing checklists can be useful for value investors.
16:46 - The case for individual stock pickers outperforming the market indices.
28:11 - What Seritage Growth Properties does and why it’s potentially a compelling investment.
36:37 - Why Seritage is trading at what appears to be well below it’s liquidation value.
36:37 - The potential risks investing in Seritage.
And much, much more!

*Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences.

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