MI Rewind: The Bull Case for Uranium w/ Justin Huhn

25:26I mean, it still is a really important and primary source of energy in the US. Still, it's about 20 % of the grid here. And that's based on the massive buildouts that were done in the 70s and 80s. The pace of buildouts substantially slowed 90s and 2000s in the United States. And And the primary reason for that has to do with cost. So it's so much faster and so much cheaper to build a coal plant or a natural gas plant or even to establish a field of solar panels and put up a wind farm, whatever it might be. So it's cost. It's regulation. In the United States, there's massive, massive bureaucratic red tape.

26:02You're dealing with hundreds and hundreds, if not thousands of union workers. It's just very, very expensive. where a country like China is building these reactors called the Walong reactors. And these reactors, they can just do one after the other, exact same design, just cut through. The red tape there is just so much less than what we have here. So that's what's kept it from happening primarily in the United States. There's also been a decent amount of negative sentiment that's been built up in the West in general. And a lot of that has to do with not only with Fukushima or in the States prior to that would be a Three Mile Island, which actually, that was a meltdown, but it was contained.

26:41It actually didn't even spew radiation or hurt anybody. Neither did Fukushima, by the way. There's zero deaths from Fukushima. A lot of deaths, unfortunately, from the evacuation and from the tsunami, of course. But that meltdown at Fukushima had no deaths associated with it. Most people don't know that. But there's also been a concerted campaign from the fossil fuel companies to give nuclear a bad name. And the reason is whenever a nuclear plant shuts down, fossil fuel fixable pieces. For the reasons I already described with renewables, renewables are kind of the hot item and have been for the past decade.

27:14Everybody thinks it's like the next step to world peace and whatever it might be in a carbon-free future. And renewables have their place. But we've seen what's happened in Germany, for example, they've put$500 billion with a B into solar and wind in their program called Energy Vende. And what that has done is they shut down half the nuclear plants. They just shut down three more last week, by the way. And they went all out into wind and solar. And so 50 % of their energy grid is wind and solar. What happened because of their shutdown of nuclear and because of their massive expansion intermittent energy sources is they've had to build more coal plants in order to buffer that intermittency in the grid and stabilize the grid.

27:56So they have some of the worst air quality in Europe. They have some of the highest energy prices in Europe. And it's been an energy nightmare for the Germans, really. And it's just insane that they're closing down their last nuclear reactors. It's just totally crazy. So that's kind of the long-winded answer to say that sentiment has been poor. There's concern over nuclear waste from people that don't understand it very well. Nuclear waste, really, there isn't a great solution for it still. There's no agreed upon location in the United States where to store it. Other countries have figured out some pretty ingenious storage situations like Finland.

28:34You have this series of underground tunnels that go deep underground. And the waste is already held in a large cask with very thick walls of concrete and steel. And then that cask is brought underground and it's buried in clay and then cemented over. And it's however many hundreds of meters underground. So it stays radioactive for a very long time, but it's stored safely. It's literally the only waste product from an energy source that's extremely highly regulated. So if you imagine the waste product from a natural gas plant is in your lungs, and in my lungs, and in the ocean, and from the coal plant, same thing.

29:11More people die in a single day from coal production, from coal energy production than have died in the history of nuclear. So it's actually the safest form of energy that's ever been produced. It's safer than solar. In terms of deaths per kilowatt hour produced, it's safer than everything. I'm curious, nuclear reactors in the US, what do they currently do with all of the waste? It's stored at each individual facility, at each power plant, in these casks. And to your point about Germany, has there been any pushback from the people or from politicians to try and turn on these reactors again to try and bring the cost of energy back down?

29:49There's definitely been a positive shift in sentiment amongst the populace. It's been very difficult for politicians to reverse course. That's not just Germany, that's anywhere. Politicians don't seem to be able to apologize or say that they were wrong. That's pretty much an impossibility. The incoming chancellor seems to be indifferent about nuclear rather than anti. It was Angela Merkel's decision to close down the reactors after Fukushima and to phase out nuclear, which the populace at the time was fully in support or mostly in support. But now with this energy crisis and the fact that they're so beholden to Russia's natural gas imports and Russia has got their hand on the tap doing this, letting a little bit in, a little bit less, a little bit more, just total control.

30:34And so the people in Germany are less pleased with the phase out than they were in the past. And there's certainly been a movement to try to save the remaining. There's three left in the country that are set to be turned offline this year. For those that are critics of nuclear energy, are there any other drawbacks or points that you haven't mentioned yet? It's expensive and time-consuming to build the plants. That's the biggest drawback in most countries. There's huge, huge sunk costs to get a reactor up and running. Once it is up and running, they can run for... Some of the reactors in the States have been given life extensions to 80 years.

31:14And some of those reactors are expected to get another extension, potentially out to 100 years. So there's been a lot of safety protocols. That was one of the good things about Fukushima is the reactors that did stay online. Most countries that had nuclear power kind of reassessed and made sure their safety protocols were in place. But I would say that's probably the biggest downside is the sunk cost and the time that it takes. I mean, the nuclear waste is not a great thing. It's not a bonus, but it's not as harmful as most people think. It's very highly regulated and there hasn't been an accident with the waste.

31:44And so I'm not one of those people that thinks that there's a perfect solution out there. I really don't. I mean, everything is a compromise. And I think that having myopia over any particular issue or any particular perceived solution is typically not a good idea. I think that it's not an all or nothing situation. I think that nuclear has its place in an energy grid. And you know, where's the conversation about energy conservation? That seemed to have disappeared in the last 10 years. It's like everybody's excited about electric vehicles, electric everything, that all we're talking about is electrifying the planet.

32:20Nobody's talking about energy conservation anymore. I literally, I haven't had that conversation in five years with anybody that I've talked to. So if we're not talking about that, then you can't just come out and say, let's electrify everything. Oh, we're all going to die in 10 years because of carbon. oh, nuclear bad. It's like, you can't have all of those things. You have to compromise somewhere. So I think that the downsides to nuclear, all things considered, are acceptable. And I think that it is a very good source of clean and baseload energy that could... I mean, shoot, you could have nuclear desalinating in areas that are stricken by drought to reforest deserted areas.

33:03so many huge potential issues that could be helped with the implementation of nuclear. And the small modular reactor thing is really exciting. There's dozens of very, very cool designs that are essentially meltdown proof. Some of them are even working on technology to actually recycle the waste. There is some technology currently for waste recycling. The French are doing it a little bit with something called MoxFuel, where they actually take nuclear waste and recycle it. It's very expensive to do, so that's why everybody doesn't do it. But it, like everything else, is a compromise. And I think that all things considered, it's a pretty good solution.

33:36If we're talking about a future where energy is going to be in increasing demand, which it does seem like that's what we're talking about. It's not necessarily what I'm advocating for, but that seems to be the situation. So I think it's a good solution with all of that considered. Due to the economics of how these nuclear reactors are built, Is that the reason why most of them are state-run? Well, there's plenty of private nuclear utilities in the States and in a number of other countries as well, but a lot of them are state-run. And so, yeah, that has a lot to do with it, plus just the energy security element of it, rather than bringing in the vicissitudes of capitalism to the security of the energy grid, let's say.

34:19So that can be a problem in the States sometimes when natural gas is really cheap and a reactor is kind of right on the edge of profitability and it has to compete in an energy market in the states, that can cause financial problems for some of the utilities. Recently, we've seen some protesting and riots going on in Kazakhstan. Could you expand on how that might affect the global energy markets and the uranium market? I mean, it's hard to tell right now because it's so fresh. Protests started a few days ago based on the removal of a cap on gasoline prices. the government removed a price cap for gasoline and people started to protest.

34:58It seemed like the government pretty quickly reversed course and said, okay, okay, we'll put the cap back. And the people are already in protest mode and they're full on rioting. It seems like they're trying to overthrow the government at this point. The president of Kazakhstan has already basically canned his entire cabinet and is saying, yeah, I'm not going anywhere and we're going to do everything we can to quell these protests. They've shut off the internet across the entire country, which I was reading an article about it today. And that was just kind of like a passing line. Oh, there's been a nationwide internet shutdown.

35:28And I thought about that for a second. Imagine that here. That's a really, really debilitating, huge deal. And I don't know how long that's going to last. I mean, that affects people's survival at this point. It looks pretty unstable. The rioters have captured the airport, the international airport. They've burned down government buildings. And it doesn't look good. And so the Kremlin out of Russia is already basically saying, warning other countries to stay out. Don't come in and try to fix this situation. So I think Kazatomprom, which is the majority state-owned, but it's 25 % publicly traded now.

36:04It lists on the London Stock Exchange under the ticker KAP. They're the biggest producer in the world. About half of their production goes to China. They have joint ventures with a number of other companies. And they're a huge player in the space. And they've been a reliable producer for almost two decades. I don't really see yet that this will necessarily impact supplies. I don't think that they will ever default on their delivery requirements and their delivery contracts. That's highly unlikely to happen. But I think what it's doing currently is it's just highlighting the risks of having such a reliance on a single source for something so crucial as uranium for energy.

36:44And so utilities that have relied upon this one source, because they produce like over 40 % of the global uranium production in annual basis, just huge. Any interruption that might come to that even short term is a big deal to the market. So I think that that's what the market's reacting to today in some ways. And I think more than a reaction to that is that was kind of the trigger for money that was on the sidelines to come back into uranium, because we had a 30 % pullback over the mid-November through the end of the year. So there's a lot of A lot of kind of late retail money got washed out and there's a lot of institutional money.

37:16It's like fresh in January. All right. We've got our new, the whole year ahead of us. We're ready to allocate into this thing. Then this comes along. It's kind of a trigger. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. Hey, it's Sean O'Malley, just popping in with a quick message. If you like this podcast, well, I've got great news for you. We've got a handful of other shows for you to explore, from learning about Bitcoin to embracing a richer, wiser, happier lifestyle. Just go into your podcast app and type in We Study Billionaires to find our collection of shows. We Study Billionaires is our flagship podcast, and we've made a name for ourselves over the years by interviewing the best investors in the world, including Ray Dalio, Howard Marks, Joel Greenblatt, and many, many more.

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40:22Between the screener and Legend Investment portfolios to reference, I've gotten a ton of ideas from TIP Finance. What are you waiting for? Take the next step in your investment journey today with the right tools at your fingertips. Grab your device and type into your browser theinvestorspodcast.com slash TIP-finance to get started. That's theinvestorspodcast.com slash TIP-finance. All right, back to the show. So could you talk to our audience a little bit about the cyclicality of uranium as a commodity and where we might be at in this current bull cycle? It is typically a very cyclical commodity.

41:04I mean, all commodities really are cyclical. They go through those boom and bust cycles, like I mentioned, and the commodities that can react faster to a pricing environment are the ones that have smaller cycles usually, which is why the uranium cycles are so huge. So like oil and gas wells seemingly can respond faster. Gold and silver to some extent, although that's a highly manipulated market. But these commodities markets where you have a very, very slow timeframe to respond to prices, you have huge cycles. So the cycle that went peaked in 2007 at$134 a pound, fell pretty sharply from there, it was starting to recover in Fukushima in 2011.

41:44Then it fell practically in a straight line from about$70 a pound down to$18 a pound in 2016. So the commodity bottom was 2016, late 2016 at$18 a pound. The equities bottom was March 2020. So when we had just kind of the COVID crash is when the equities bottomed, most equities bottomed. Some of the equities bottomed with the commodity. Some of the stronger companies, I would say, kind of bottomed with the commodity and recovered with the commodity and held up better in that March 2020 crash. But that was roughly the equities bottom. We had a pretty decent recovery in the equities from March 2020 for about a six-month period after that.

42:24And then it kind of leveled off. The spot price stopped moving. The spot price really was moving because Kamika was buying in the market on short delivery because they had to shut their Cigar Lake mine. And so when they closed that mine, they started buying in the market. So not only do you have pounds not coming into the market because the mine was closed, but they were... coming out of the market faster because this producer became a buyer in a greater capacity than they already were. So the spot price moved pretty sharply, March 2020 for a few months, equities moved pretty sharply. Sentiment was there, but it was kind of like, oh, maybe this is the COVID thing.

42:55Who knows when the market's going to move again. Then December of last, not last year, 2020, so 13 months ago, huge volumes came into the space, seemingly out of nowhere. And we had a prominent newsletter writer, Larry McDonald. He writes something called the Bear Traps Report goes out to a pretty large institutional membership. He did an article on uranium citing this commodity that's unloved and the equities are way undervalued. It's an energy play. And we believe that it's going to be increasingly accepted as green energy, therefore ESG funds, environmental social governance funds, like actual investment funds that can only invest in companies that fall into that category of responsible management, let's say, in one of those ways.

43:42So part of the thesis was uranium would eventually be in ESG play. So a lot of money came in in December 2020. Spot price didn't really move then. It moved up maybe a couple of dollars, but the equities went on a moonshot from December to about June. And part of that was the April news of last year of Sprott taking over UPC. So as soon as that happened, then that was kind of this sequestering of above ground mobile inventory in the spot market, which we believe Sprott has worked through most of whatever was remaining from the previous decades oversupply. So that's a long-winded answer to say that we're not at the very bottom.

44:19We're probably in maybe the third inning, probably the second or third inning here. If you look at a chart of the previous run, you can really see, and this is the case in most bull markets for most commodities or most stocks even, is that the really euphoric moves happen in like the 8th and the 9th. And so what we know, we know uranium has to go to the marginal cost of production because there's a severe supply shortage 2025, 2030 and beyond. And I know it's like, well, that's four years away. No, that's like tomorrow in the uranium world. These mines take forever to come online. So this stuff has to happen.

44:55Now the prices need to move soon to incentivize these projects to avoid a serious supply situation five plus years out. So we know the price has to go at least to that$70,$80 pound mark. We know that the spot market essentially now has been effectively cornered by the financials. And what are the financials going to do? They know they've got the market cornered. They know that money going into the spot, your interest, physically moves the price of the commodity, which therefore moves the equities. So what do we do? What do they do? Buy a big chunk of the ETF and come in and buy a big chunk of the physical trust and rinse and repeat.

45:34And so I think that things look extremely bright and that's part of the cyclicality. Typically, there's some annual cyclicality, like a seasonal element to uranium as well. It doesn't play out every year. It sort of played out this year. We had a strong October and first half of November, then it pulled back and erased a lot of those gains. Now it's running again. So typically, we have about early to mid-October through about February is usually a strong scene for uranium most years. And that's obviously an average that goes back in the last 20 years. But it's not something you can set your watch to.

46:04But the overall cycle is really boom and bust. And the bust destroys most companies and takes way longer than it should. And the boom goes way, way higher and oftentimes way faster than it should. So the price doesn't need to go to$150,$200 a pound, but it very well could because it's not being driven by a fast moving supply deficit responsive market. It's being driven by financial papers. Yeah. Like many markets, it overshoots to the upside and undershoots to the downside. I mean, we talk about that with the stock market all the time, which is something our show is really focused on. Now, due to the cyclicality of uranium, I'm assuming that at some point, you'll either sell or trim your position.

46:49What are some of the telltale signs you'll be looking for when it's time to potentially take money off the table? For sure. Yeah. It's not something you want to just close your eyes for 10 years on. It's not a blue chip dividend paying stock that you want to give to your grandchild. It's something you're going to want to get out at some point, and likely because of that overshoot. So some of those signs would be any entity that has purchased physical uranium that's not Sprott because they're a buy and hold fund trust sells uranium back into the market. So there's other hedge funds that have purchased uranium.

47:23There's producers and developers that have purchased uranium that are just holding physical uranium. So if we see some of those entities start to sell pounds in the market, that's one sign that they think that maybe it's nearing a peak. That was a big sign in the previous market because UPC and some of these other hedge funds that were holding uranium did sell back in the market. And it was more of a visible thing. That's going to be a harder thing to watch this market. One of the other signs would be a very sharp and prolonged overshoot of the spot price above the term price. Typically, the long-term price is higher than the spot price because of the cost of the future unknowns between the time the contract is signed and uranium is delivered.

48:03The term price is, well, it's technically the official price of uranium for a time period of delivery beyond 12 months. But you have the price reporters, the uranium consultants will report on the price and they'll actually have a midterm and a long-term term price. But there's more of an official term price, which is$43 a pound, which right now is lower by$2 than the spot price as of today. But typically, the term price is more expensive than the spot price because you have interest rates and you have potential unknowns between the time that that contract is signed and the uranium delivery. So in a roaring bull market, typically what happens is the spot price will do this and cross above the term price and then run.

48:45So if and when it does that, and it gets really overshot, like if we have a term price at$75 a pound and the spot price at$150, that's pretty unsustainable and likely to reverse, not necessarily tomorrow, but it's something to keep your eye on. So seeing that overshoot is definitely going to be a signal to at least be eyeing the exit door. And then of course, just the classic technical analysis, watching volumes, watching moving averages, watching large volume selling in the ETFs and the large cap companies would be a sign of institutions bailing out. So that's something to keep an eye on. Most of the corrections we've seen, at least in the past year, year and a half, have been increasing volume on the way up, decreasing volume on the way down, which is typical bull market activity.

49:31So when that reverses, when you see a sell-off of high volume and the dead cat balance or the recovery and low volume, that doesn't bode well. Just things like that are really what we're looking for. And then of course, there's clues that we watch out for based on our connections in the industry and what we're hearing that are harder to just decipher and see out into the future at this point. But there's always whispers of goings on. So we try to stay plugged into that. And of course, keep our membership up to date with whatever we're hearing on the front. I'm curious, how do you think about the macro economy in relation to your uranium trade?

50:10And maybe touch on what the overall market looked like during the March 2020 deflationary shock we saw? Well, I think in that particular shock, everything, it was a liquidity crisis. So everything got whacked. That was a very unique, unknown situation that was driven by mainstream media, just caremongering, like a level that nobody's ever seen. So I think that that was a unique shock in that nothing is safe and it's in a true liquidity crisis. I think that a lot of lessons were learned in that particular market. I think that one of those lessons is the willingness of the Fed to do just about anything to support the broad market.

50:51I think that it showed the resiliency of the markets in general, and that even something as scary and as shocking as that particular crash was, it was the ultimate buy the dip situation. You have negative oil prices, you had silver down under$10 an ounce. God, I mean, that was the buy everything moment of my adult life. I would say. And so I think that that was a lesson learned there was that the Fed will basically do anything to keep things popped up at this point. They're talking about interest rate raises. I don't think they can raise rates very much before drastically affecting the market.

51:24So they're kind of caught between a rock and a hard place. We have certain analysts, pundits talking about a 60 % to 80 % crash coming. I just like, the only way I see something like that happening is if there's an absolute unforeseen, like if nuclear war is coming or something like that, God forbid. But that's something that you can't predict. And it's something you can't really prepare for. How do you hedge for a market crash in a market that doesn't stop going up? It's like, you're going to just keep buying puts? Go out and try to buy a three-year long-dated put on the S &P right now. Premiums are absolutely astronomical.

51:57And you're going to have to take a huge chunk of your portfolio and risk that position in order for it to pay off if things do turn. So in my opinion, the best hedge for a broad market situation is cash. I think that it's a fool's game to continue to short the market. People have been calling the top in the S &P for the last five years. It's just a pointless conversation. I think that if you have a good run in your investments and you're way, way, way up and you think something is looming, just take some off the table and sit in a certain percentage of cash. That's what we plan to do. As far as the uranium market goes, I think that we should see a good leg here in the short term, judging by the volumes we're seeing today and the recovery coming off of a 30 % decline and the market's ready for another run.

52:42I think that there's a couple of catalysts, one being Sprott taking over URNM in February, and Sprott likely getting a New York Stock Exchange listing for the Physically Grain and Trust, which will most likely be a Q3 story. So we should see a generally positive situation between now and then. And we could see really violent upside moves once that does happen with the NYSE listing, because then it just opens up. The market is 13 times bigger than the TSX that they're on now. And who knows if they get an options market or not. It could get really wild. The one thing that I think is interesting that will probably buffer a astronomical move in the uranium prices in the short-ish term is we have this situation that developed in August, September of last year when we had a pretty severely backwardated market with a spot price substantially higher, 15, 20 % higher than the term price for a minute there.

53:39We had a term price of 35. We had a spot price of 50. And that lasted for a couple of weeks, maybe less than a week or above 50, but still severely backwardated for a few weeks. So what we had was a number of carry traders who were holding physical pounds for future delivery for a contract they signed with the utility. So they're holding these pounds. And let's say they had to promise those pounds for delivery for 2023, for example. What they could do in the meantime is secure a contract, a midterm contract for 2023 delivery a month before they were supposed to deliver their pounds to the utility with a producer at a long-term price of$35 a pound and sell the pounds they're sitting on the spot for 50.

54:19And so we have a certain amount of pounds that are being held in carry currently that will likely free up and add some liquidity to the spot market if we are in a severely backfired market again. So if we see a bunch of money coming to the Sprout Business Green Trust right now and push the price back up above 50, which I think we'll see probably in the next week or two, then what we'll probably see is some more liquidity come from these carried pounds. So that's going to keep the price from moonshotting to$80 a pound. It's not like an endless amount of funds can come into this vehicle and move the price in a straight line up.

54:54That's not how it's going to work. There's going to be periods of liquidity. So the first period of liquidity is going to come from the carry traders in this reverse carry trade, selling their carried pounds into the spot market to spot, cashing out, securing a midterm contract for a lower price. It's a no-brainer trade for them. So how much pounds are held and carried? That's the question, right? Well, we think that there's probably somewhere in the realm of maybe 20, 25 million pounds held and carried. all of that is not going to clear out. It really has to do with the level of backwardation to justify that type of trade happening.

55:26But that is going to buffer things in the short term. Sprott's already purchased that amount of uranium. So how long will that buffer it? I don't know. But it's going to keep it from going from 45 to 90, in my opinion. I could be wrong, of course, but that's my opinion. So we should see a generally positive market with a generally rising spot uranium price. And if it goes in the way that I think it will with some liquidity coming from this reverse carry trade, then we should see spot continue to rise slowly, bring the term price up. Possibly it chills for a minute before this New York Stock Exchange listing.

55:57When that is confirmed, then I think we could have a more serious move. Once that liquidity from the carried pounds is worked through and the spot market is thin, then there's really no more liquidity to come in at those prices. There's going to be some pounds that come from Japan because of utilities that have closed for good, there's some reactors that are not coming back online in Japan. And some of those utilities are holding pounds on their books that they paid 80 bucks a pound for, 90 bucks a pound for, 70 bucks a pound for 10 years ago. So I think when the price gets up to that level again, we'll see some more liquidity come in from there.

56:31But it really is a relative consideration to what type of money is coming into the Iranian market at the time. So long story short, very short-term predictions in this market are a fool's errand. And I try not to do it. And I suggest anybody who's interested in this market, if they... By the way, this is still a pretty good time to position considering the pullback. Just taking a longer term view, I think that at the very shortest, we should see probably a two-year bull run to an overshoot in uranium price. And it could go three, four, five years. And it could turn into a uranium super cycle. A lot of different elements are contingent on that happening.

57:08Of course, the broad markets or one of them. But I think that we're in for a very exciting, at the very least, two to three years starting now. Just for reference, today's Wednesday, January 5th. Usually it takes a couple, two or three weeks for the episode to be released, just for everyone that's listening today. Justin, thank you so much for coming onto the show. I've really enjoyed this conversation. And if the listeners are interested in learning more about the uranium markets, I encourage you to just do your own research and learn from as many sources that you can. And I think Justin is a really good resource to learn from.

57:42Before we close out the episode, where can the audience go to connect with you, Justin? The audience can find me at uraniuminsider.com. I'm on Twitter pretty frequently, at Uranium Insider. I also have a daily podcast that I do on YouTube called the Uranium Market Minute. It's just geared towards the day-to-day movements and the spot price and the flows and to the Sput vehicle and the ETFs and just anything else I want to pontificate on in the Uranium markets. But yeah, uraniuminsider.com, you can contact me through there if you have any questions. And we can also give you a sample newsletter if you're interested in checking out the type of content that we put out for our members.

58:21Awesome. I'll definitely be sure to link all those in the show notes. Justin, thank you so much. Thanks for having me, Clay. It's been fun. All right, everybody. I hope you enjoyed today's episode, please go ahead and follow us on your favorite podcast app so you can get these episodes delivered automatically. And if you haven't already done so, be sure to check out our website, theinvestorspodcast.com. There you'll find all of our episodes, some educational resources we have, as well as some tools you can use as an investor. And with that, we'll see you again next time.

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