MI279: The Joys of Compounding w/ Gautam Baid

26:14And this painful transition can lead to a long phase of valuation derating, which causes the stock to trade flat or sideways for long periods of time. and it can result in a lost decade for investors. I'll give you an example here. So from 2000 to 2013, the stock of Adobe gave zero return to investors. It was a great business in 2000. And it was a great business in 2013 as well. But for 13 years, as an investor in Adobe, you made zero returns. So investing is all about finding pockets of mispricing, where basically you're getting more for the price that you're paying with the lowest amount of risk.

26:52That is what good investing is all about. It's not about being absent evaluations for a business, however high quality it may be. So always pay attention to margin of safety. With interest rates where they are and the economy and the stock market may be pulling back a little bit. If investors are thinking, okay, maybe this is, you know, we're seeing the stock market pull back a little bit in some cases. Maybe investors are thinking, okay, now's a time to pick up some shares of these high quality, great companies that I've had on my watch list for a while, but they're not sure about valuation yet.

27:27What should investors be looking for to indicate that a company's valuation might be reasonable and a good time to buy, or that the valuation might still be stretched? Well, it's a very good question. And here I would like to make a very important statement. I believe the time for active investing has come to make a very strong comeback. Over the last 15 years, since 2008, index investing and passive investing had done better. But in an era of high interest rates, the index may remain range-bound, but bottom-up stock picking, the time for bottom-up stock pickers to shine has finally arrived. So, here is where you'll have to pay attention to valuations, cash flows, balance sheet, management quality, all the good stuff.

28:08And this is what is called the good old markets like we call them. This is a normal market environment. This is how markets historically have been before 2008. So this is an environment in which you need to just focus on companies which have got earnings on the table, where the valuations are very favorable. And don't pay very high P multiples in this high interest rate environment because interest rates act like a force of gravity for valuations in the stock market. So if the risk-free interest rate is 4 % to 5%, and you simply do one by risk-free rate to arrive at 25 P multiple. Try to avoid paying more than this particular P multiple for any business in the stock market unless that particular business can provide you longevity of growth and visibility of growth for a very, very long period of time.

28:54The business has to be very, very rock solid and it has to have a very, very strong mode. In fact, in today's times, who would have thought that the mode of Google in search could be threatened? But now we have got ChatGPT, which has led to this valuation derating of Google. So in today's digital era, it's truly sacrosanct. You can form your initial hypothesis about the strength of the moat. But given the technological advancements we are seeing in the world today, it's very, very important to constantly monitor whether the moat is getting stronger or weaker. Because investing is all about terminal value.

29:28It's all about the trajectory of the return on capital employed, the trajectory of the terminal value. Is the business becoming more valuable? or more safer over time? Are the cash flows becoming more robust over time, or are they getting threatened? And the market is very smart. If any business's terminal value is getting threatened, the valuation derating will happen fast and furious, and you may end up investing in a value trap. So avoid investing in value traps in the stock market. Very, very important. How can investors identify and then avoid value traps? I think this is a big problem, especially for value-focused investors.

30:05How do we identify and avoid them? In the stock markets, expensive is expensive for a reason and cheap is cheap for a reason. Many a times, switching from a high P stock to a low P stock proves to be a very big mistake because many a times there is this common investor tendency that we look at the sector leader's high valuation and we try to find the poor cousin and try to invest in a stock from the same sector at a relatively lower valuation. And that is where maximum damage happens and permanent loss of capital occurs. So what is a value trap? Value trap is a business which looks cheap based on trailing PE or price to multiples, but it is actually very expensive in reality.

30:43And what are the various signs of a value trap? So number one, cyclicality of earnings. So a cyclical business may be operating at peak operating margins, and you may be buying it at the peak of the industry cycle at a low price to earning ratio. But once you normalize the earnings, normalize the margins, the stock is actually very expensive. So that's one cyclicality of earnings. Number two is app risk. So a stock of a taxi company may have looked very attractive in the past, but that was before Uber arrived. So technological obsolescence or termination of terminal value, this can also lead to you investing in value traps.

31:20In India, there are stocks of a few print newspaper companies listed available at very cheap prices. But today we don't consume news by ordering the physical newspapers. Most of us read news digitally. So again, where the terminal value is at risk, the P ratio may look cheap, but that's actually a value trap. You have to focus on the denominator of the P ratio, the E, the earnings. The earnings are in structural decline or are threatened to become zero over time. Then those are value traps to be avoided. Number three, bad capital allocation. If a management is constantly taking the cash flows from a business and investing that into value destructive projects, which have got return on capital below the cost of capital, the market is rightly giving that business a very low price to earning multiple.

32:04So don't fall for that value trap. And finally, we have got governance issues. The intrinsic value of a business with fraudulent management is zero. No price is cheap in such cases. So avoid those value traps as well. So sum up cyclicality of earnings, app risk or technological risk, which threatens terminal value, bad capital allocation, and corporate governance issues. These are what lead to value traps in the market. How do you approach a situation when you find a high quality company passes all of your investment criteria, maybe checks all the boxes on your checklist, but the valuation isn't quite where you want it to be, or it does look a little bit stretched?

32:43How do you approach and handle situations like that? investors with a bias against high p stocks tend to miss or end up missing some of the biggest stock market winners of all time and you mentioned about this delicate balance between not wanting to overpay for a high quality business here i would like to share two white papers with your audience so that everyone understands what is the justified p multiple for a given stock or a business so the first white paper is titled what does a price to earning multiple mean it's written by michael Morbison. And the second white paper is titled The P Ratio, a User's Manual by EPOC Investment Partners.

33:22Once you read these two white papers, your thought process will become crystal clear as to how the interplay between return on invested capital and growth in the business determines the justified or the fair P multiple for a business. And you may be surprised to know that for businesses which can promise you longevity earnings growth of 12 to 15 % over a decade or more. Today's justified P multiple for such a business is northward of 50 times and more. That's why it's very important to read these two white papers to understand what is the justified P multiple. Now, in India, the market in which I specialize, there are many large cap consumer companies which are growing at 10-12 % trading at 80-90 P multiples.

34:02I'm not willing to pay high P multiples, such high P multiples for slow growth. But if I can find such companies at the small cap or mid cap stage where they're growing much more faster and with high longevity of growth, I'm more than happy to pay even as high as 40 to 50 times P multiple for current year's earnings because in such companies, once you've identified them at a small cap or mid cap stage, if they've got longevity of growth, the valuation multiple does not derate. In fact, the valuation multiple keeps expanding throughout the high growth phase of a company as it transitions from a small cap to a large cap.

34:36And once it reaches the large cap stage and growth matures and starts slowing down, the valuation multiple starts normalizing down to a more steady state P multiple. So these are things which you get to learn only with the passage of time and experience in the markets. Don't get, just don't mechanically dismiss any company with a high P multiple. Look at which stage of the industry cycle, which stage of the company cycle the company is in. Is it in the growth stage or the maturity stage or the decline stage and then take your decision accordingly. In your book, you talk about looking for companies where the market's expectations aren't pricing in what you think will happen.

35:11And so you're talking about the justified PE. And because of this, you're figuring out the implied growth that the market is pricing in. Is that the way you're thinking about it? So a reverse discounted cashflow operation fleshes out the market's expectations about growth and margins from the stock in question. So one of the four questions which I asked myself when evaluating a stock is what is the market factoring in at this current valuation versus what are my own future assumptions for the stock in question. So you can simply carry out a reverse DCF operation and compare the market's assumption with that of your own to decide whether you want to invest in the company or not.

35:50In India, we have got a tool called the Jody Finance in which you can simply conduct a reverse DCF operation very easily, very quickly. And once you have those markets assumptions in front of you, you just compare them with your own and then you decide whether you want to invest or not. I've never used those implied growth rates in my own practice or my own investing, but it is something I've studied. Is that something that you always do in your investment process? I do. I do. So I think a reverse DCF is a broad sanity check, just to get a sanity check on the valuations and whether they make sense or not.

36:24Because some businesses which are very vulnerable to very rapid shifts in technology, if I see that the market is factoring in more than 25 to 30 % growth over the next 10 years and more for such a business, then the base rate of success becomes very low. And good investors focus on base rates. Base rates simply means a reference historical class, comparing the current situation to what happened in similar situations in the past. And history teaches us that in very fast-moving, fast-changing industries characterized by rapid shifts in technology, you cannot expect that business to grow linearly for a very long period of time because it can be threatened by very rapid change in the industry landscape.

37:06So be more conservative in those cases. I'm much more comfortable paying a high P multiple for a business which caters to basic human needs like shelter, food, basic essentials like medicines. There you can basically have a much more longer time horizon and longer set of assumptions. But in businesses which can be threatened by technology, there I tend to become much more conservative in my estimates. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. Hey, it's Sean O'Malley, just popping in with a quick message. If you like this podcast, well, I've got great news for you. We've got a handful of other shows for you to explore.

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40:48That's theinvestorspodcast.com slash TIP-finance. All right, back to the show. So earlier, you touched on how you use negative information to guide your investment decisions. And in your book, you talk about figuring out what a stock is not worth, which I'm hoping you can talk to us a bit more about this, flesh this out a bit more, because I think it's a really interesting way to value a company or think about valuing a company. I don't hear a lot of people talking about what a stock is not worth. Again, the best investing decisions tend to be ones which just looks so obvious. So I'll give you a live example from my India fund.

41:27It was an investment I made a month ago in a stock named Aarti Pharma Labs. This is not an investment advice. This is just to explain to you what a stock is not worth. So there is a very big industrial corporate group in India called the Aarti Group. They have got various companies listed like Aarti Industries, Aarti Surfactants, Aarti Drugs, Aarti Pharma Labs. Aarti Drugs from that group is a very low margin, inferior, generic drugs business. And here you had Aarti Pharma Labs, which was a spin-off from Aarti Industries. What happens is when a small cap or micro cap is spun off from a large cap parent, which has got very high institutional shareholding, then those large cap funds, once they receive shares of the small cap stock in their portfolio, they tend to start dumping it in the open market, irrespective of valuations.

42:16And because of this forced selling, you can buy such businesses at very cheap prices now after the spin-off because of this force selling from institutions arati pharma labs had fallen to a trailing p multiple of 12 times okay now if arati drugs from the same corporate group which is an inferior business is trading at 23 times how can the much more superior business of arati pharma labs trade at half the valuation it did not make any sense whatsoever this is where just by using common sense and understanding what a stock cannot be worth, it's just not possible, you end up making great returns.

42:52So Stellar Wealth Partners India Fund, we bought a stake in Aarti Pharma Labs at around price of around 250 rupees. The stock is up more than 40 % in just one month. Because now what the market is doing is once that forced selling from the institutions got over, the market is now quickly re-rating the stock back to at least the valuation multiple of Aarti Drugs, which is the inferior group company. A higher quality business from an industry cannot be worth half the valuation of a much inferior business from the same industry or the same corporate group. This is an example of what a stock could not be worth and how we made use of this information to generate good returns for investors.

43:32We've talked about how compounding is the best and has such a big factor. It's such a key to success in investing. But at the same time, people might come into a situation where they might have to sell a stock or they're not sure if they should hold onto a stock because of valuation or how the company is changing, et cetera. So how often do you revisit your valuation analysis, especially when you're having a really long-term horizon? How often are you recalculating the value? you? More than recalculating the value, I do look at the valuations on a one-year forward basis using my conservative estimates.

44:11And I do not sell a stock just on high valuations because high-quality businesses are very rare to come by and they undergo long periods of time correction. But the advantage of a diversified portfolio is that when these high-quality businesses become overvalued in the short term and then they undergo time correction and they take rest, the rest of the portfolio starts firing. And that is what does the heavy lifting for you during such years. Now, while I mentioned, I'm happy with staying put and holding on to highly valued, high quality companies, but I'm not willing to hold on to the business if it becomes absolutely valued.

44:45So what do I mean by absolutely overvalued? So personally, I've got this mental exit criteria that if a business crosses more than 100 P multiple, I'll get out of the stock, no questions asked, even though it may go up even further from there during a period of market euphoria. But that is the internal high hurdle which I've kept for myself. And in India, it's not uncommon to find the stocks of high quality businesses trading at 40 or 60p multiples because many foreign investors do not understand that the supply of quality equities in India is very limited. So these handful of quality businesses in India, which are roughly, there may be 100 companies at max like that, they enjoy what is known as a scarcity premium.

45:26and that is why great investors just don't try to apply rigid theories. They try to understand the ground realities of the individual stock markets in which they operate. And at the end of the day, the price of a stock is driven by only two factors, demand and supply. If the demand for high quality equities is high and the supply of such high quality equities is low in India, then obviously the valuation multiples will be very elevated. But at the same time, you have to make sure that you don't buy them at absolute valuations. try to you know you'll get those companies at a reasonable price during a bear market or a market crash like march 2020 but very rarely will you find high quality companies in india cheap per se in absolute terms so you have to make peace with that fact and then buy them at a reasonable to fair prices and then enjoy the compounding returns it's not really a super new topic but a lot of people have been talking about india as kind of the next china if you will or growing as fast as China was a decade or two ago.

46:28And so a lot of people are interested in the business and investment opportunities there. And I'd say that's your specialty, investing in the Indian stock market. So that said, I'm curious to get some insight from you, particularly US investors who are looking to diversify their holdings away from just US stocks. How should they think about the Indian stock market and potentially investing there? It is my personal conviction and belief that the opportunities of the next 20 years in India will be far greater than those in the last 20 years. And the opportunities of the next 20 years will dwarf that of the last 20 years.

47:06And where will these opportunities come from? They'll come from two sources, variant perception and long-term structural trends. Variant perception refers to having a differentiated view on the short to medium-term trajectory of a business. And variant Variant perception refers to situations where you get return on capital employed ROC expansion coupled with earnings growth, you get valuation re-rating and you end up with multi-baggers. And there are multiple triggers for variant perception. Number one, product makes change into a higher margin category. So in these cases, what happens is the net profit grows at a faster rate than revenue growth because you're introducing new higher margin value added products.

47:45number two operating leverage which can come from having high unutilized capacity just at the beginning of an industry upcycle so that's the second one number three improvement in working capital cycle if the company is able to negotiate better terms of trade with its customer and suppliers then the working capital cycle gets crunched down and because working capital is a part of capital employed your return on capital employed goes up and you get valuation re-rating Number four, deleveraging. As debt goes down, interest cost goes down, net profit goes up, market gap goes up. Also, because debt is a part of capital employed, your return on capital employed also goes up with a reduction in debt.

48:24Number five, positive regulatory change. So in early 2020, the government of India started putting a heavy emphasis on ethanol blending. And since then, we have had many multi-baggers coming from the sugar mills and distillery space in India. Number six, industry cycle shift. So since middle of 2020, the residential real estate cycle in India has turned around after more than a decade. We have had many multi-baggers coming from the building material space in India. Number seven, improvement in asset turns. You can get this information from managements on conference calls. You can ask them what is the expected turnover on the new fixed asset capacity.

48:58And there are two levers for ROC expansion. One is improvement in asset turns and one is margin improvement and between the two i prefer the former because higher margins tend to attract competition finally we have corporate actions like spin-offs promoter or management change merger arbitrage and divestiture of a loss making or non-core business segment as you sell off a loss making business segment the net profit goes up market gap goes up and when you divest non-core business segment the markets reward the focused management with a higher valuation multiple. So these are the various triggers for varying perception.

49:32Now let's talk about long-term structural trends. Long-term structural trends are found in industries with a very favorable structure. They're organized like a monopoly or an oligopoly or ideally a duopoly at best because in a duopoly, generally those kind of companies do not tend to engage in price wars. So I really like to invest in industries with a duopoly structure. These kind of industries have got consistency and predictability of cash flows and you have a long runway for growth ahead so you have visibility for many many years ahead long-term structural trends are also characterized by value migration so in india for the last 20 years we have had value migration from unorganized to organized public sector to private sector so find pockets of value migration where the value migration is taking place and today there are multiple structural growth plays available in the indian stock market including specialty chemicals with critical application contract manufacturing affordable housing, fintech, financialization of savings, and branded discretionary consumption.

50:33The last two categories I mentioned, financialization of savings and branded discretionary consumption, very, very important. And I'll just quickly give you a brief of why I'm saying this. History teaches us that the fastest pace of wealth creation in any stock market takes place when that country transitions from$3 trillion GDP to$6 trillion of GDP. and why does this happen? It's because if you look at the history of US, China and Japan, when those countries GDP went from 3 trillion to 6 trillion, their stock markets did not just double, their stock markets tripled or even quadrupled. And why did that happen?

51:07It's because as a nation transitions from a low income per capita country to a middle income per capita country, the basic spending on items like food does not go up much. But this spending on categories of branded discretionary consumption and financialization of savings, these two categories simply explode. Today, India is at$3.3 trillion of GDP. We're right in the sweet spot. And we are just on the cusp of the fastest pace of wealth creation in India's stock market. And already these two categories in the last two years, which was the category which outperformed the most, it was branded discretionary consumption and financialization of savings.

51:43These two themes outperformed the most. In fact, in India, from 35 million individual DMAT or brokerage accounts three years ago, today we are standing at 120 million brokerage or DMAT accounts. So this financialization of savings trend is already exploding in full force as seen in the last three years. So for investing success in the Indian stock market, you want to position your portfolio to make the most of these two big teams. You've talked about how you don't think passive investing in the sense of like an ETF or an index fund is going to be the way to go in the future. So do you think that might not be the best way to play this trend for the Indian stock market that you just talked about and all the positives that are going forward for India right now?

52:29The problem with an ETF or an index is that it consists of good businesses and bad businesses. But if you want to generate alpha and if you want to beat the index, by definition, you have to concentrate your portfolio into the best quality stocks and names which you can find. So, like I mentioned to you, variant perception and long-term structural trends, these are the two key pillars of Stellar Wealth Partner India Fund's investment philosophy. The long-term structural trends provide us with long-term compounding, giving us equal or slightly better than the index returns, whereas the shorter-term tactical opportunities found by variant perception help us to generate that alpha over time for investors.

53:05So this is the reason why bottom-up stock picking and active investing is all set to make a big comeback because if the market is right now expecting the interest rates to come down again, but what if the interest rates do not come down? In such a scenario, the index may become range mount for a long period of time. We should remember that between year 2000 and year 2013, the NASDAQ index gave zero returns for 13 long years. I'll give you one more number from history. This was about the NASDAQ. Let's look at the Dow. from December 31st, 1964 to December 31st, 1981. During those 17 long years, the Dow Jones industrial average went from 874 to 875, a single point move over 17 years.

53:48So we have had periods in history when the index gave no returns in case of the Nasdaq for 13 years, in case of the Dow for 17 years. So it's very, very important to be bottom up. And why restrict ourselves to only are home country or have a home country bias. We are a world which is very globalized, very digital. Information is readily available. And money, frankly, has got no color. Every dollar spends the same, whether you make it from India, whether you make it from Europe, whether you make it from US. Ultimately, the beauty of capitalism is that money has got a metaphysical attraction to places where it can be put to the best possible use.

54:24So as investors start realizing the growth potential of the Indian stock market. They have no choice but to have some allocation. And it's my personal conviction and belief that every investor in the world today should have some allocation to Indian equities in their portfolios. It's very, very important. And what is the reason why I say this? It took India 58 years to make its first trillion dollars of GDP, but it took India just seven years to reach its second trillion dollars of GDP. And the subsequent trillions of GDP will be achieved in faster succession. So if we simply assume the market cap to GDP to approximate one over time, one can just envisage and visualize the kind of wealth creation that lies in store for investors in the great Indian businesses.

55:07Trillions of dollars over the next few decades. And who will capture the bulk of this upcoming wealth creation boom in the Indian stock markets over the next 20 years? The nation's best managed companies with proven ability to scale up their operations will capture the bulk of this stock market addition, which is about to take place. That is where you want to position your portfolio to generate wealth for yourself and your investors. Towards the beginning of the interview, you mentioned how there are always opportunities, even in bear markets. There's always somewhere to find a new opportunity.

55:41And if we look at the US, it's been one of the leading stock markets. And you talked about how in bear markets, new leaders often emerge. So how should investors be thinking about where the new investment market leadership will come from? Is it going to be the US? Is it going to be a different market? Generally, where are you looking for the best opportunities for investors? This is not investment advice. Please do your due diligence. But one place where I would definitely look at is all the ancillary plays related to gold and silver. I think last year when the United States weaponized the dollar against Russia, it prompted many of the central banks and governments across the world to start stocking up on gold and silver, even though silver has got an industrial use, but there is a particular ratio of silver to gold below which silver tends to become very cheap.

56:30So I think precious metals like gold and silver will do very well over the next five years. And if you can find ancillary plays related to gold and silver in the US stock markets, I think that is a good place to look at. At the end of the day, money chases growth in any stock market. If the growth in tech is slowing down, and if a new sector is showing high earnings growth, money will automatically gravitate to such sectors after every bear market. So I just mentioned gold and silver, but irrespective of any sector, a group of companies which are experiencing very high top-line growth, that is exemplifying sector leadership.

57:05That is where you want to position your portfolio in the stock market in which you operate. It's all about earnings. We may have fads and trends, like we had NFTs, SPACs, and all that speculation in 2020, 2021. But ultimately, it was companies which had very solid earnings, a lot of cash flows. Those companies are still doing very well. Look at what Microsoft and Apple, how the stocks have performed over the last two years. They're still very rock solid. But the companies which were very sensitive to economic conditions, like for example, Google and Facebook, which derived most of the revenues from advertising revenue, the markets were very efficient.

57:38They took down the valuations of both the stocks very, very sharply. On top of that, Google had the chat GBT headwind and Facebook had issues in its business. So the market is very, very efficient. I've realized over time, the market is very smart. If we simply respect the collective wisdom of the market, and if you're doing this 24 seven, you develop what I call a feel for the market. The market itself will guide you in the right direction. You just have to be humble and listen to it. Before we wrap up today, Gautam, where is the best place? where do you want people to go to find your information online, find your book, etc.?

58:11Sure. So for people who want to learn more about the book, they can visit the jawsofcompounding.com. For people who want to learn more about my India fund in the US, they can go to stellarwealthindia.com. And for people who want to invest in Stellar Wealth PMS, which is a portfolio management service for Indian citizens and NRIs, they can visit completecirclewealth.com. Great. I will be sure to put a link to all your resources and your awesome book in the show notes below. As everybody listens knows, all the resources, just swipe up on your podcast app. You could find them in the show notes below if you're interested in checking them out more.

58:46Thanks again. This was a pleasure. Thank you. All right, guys. That's all I had for this week's episode of Millennial Investing. I'll see you again next week.

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