BTC253: Quantum Computing and Bitcoin w/ Charles Edwards (Bitcoin Podcast)

24:42So it's an informational warfare capability as well. And that's why I think basically the allocation of money to this industry is only going to go through the roof. And yeah. And the other thing with these forecasts of Q-Bits is that these leading companies have actually been beating their targets the last couple of years. So they've been hitting their timeframes early. So they're not really, the firms I mentioned, they're not actually wishful thinking. They've actually been beating their historical forecast. So yeah, again, we don't know the exact number, but anywhere between the two to eight years with a really high probability in the four to five year mark.

25:14And I think anyone who's kind of working in the industry will kind of confer that that is the trajectory it's on and the tech improvements and tech advancements we're seeing every month and quarter are pretty breakthrough changes and capability and improvements. So Charles, one of the things that I'm just looking at AI and AI specialty is being able to find patterns, right? And when we look at one of the biggest issues, which we've talked about here is the noise factor. It seems like you could somehow apply AI to help dampen or try to figure out how to remedy a lot of the noise factors with respect to this and which could accelerate some of these timelines in ways that we're not expecting today.

25:57Is this something that you've read? I mean, this is just an intuitive sense. Is this something that you've read as being real or? Yeah, I believe it was Rigetti a couple of months ago had an announcement and this is I think the second biggest public corner company in the US. They basically said But they've been able to use AI to really fast track optimizations and how they're calibrating the quantum machines, right? So where it would be a lot more manual and human-driven, you know, algorithm-based, but still slower, it can be they're seeing significant speed improvements on that. So AI helps speed up the development of quantum and then quantum ultimately will help speed up different processes for AI in the future.

26:36So they're really kind of interdependent and kind of grow off each other. One of the things that you said earlier in the conversation that confused me a little bit, because when I was doing research on the entanglement piece of this, one of the things that became clear is you can't take, let's say you could figure out how to do it with a thousand physical and it gives you, you know, let's just say it's a 10 to one factor that gives you a hundred logical qubits right there. And then you kind of stitch those thousand physical qubit processors together in order to build out a much larger quantum computer.

27:10And what I read or what I think I understand is that's not how this works. Being able to kind of stitch together groups of thousand, a thousand physical here, a thousand physical there doesn't get you over this curve. they have to be completely entangled, all of the cupids in order to be able to solve these much bigger problems, call it like cracking the encryption on Bitcoin. Is that true? And if not, is there a way that you can partially do it or just help us kind of understand the mechanics of that? Because I think for a lot of people, they'll start thinking in that direction because that's how normal day processors, you have dual core, you have quad core processors, and they're thinking that maybe they can apply that to quantum.

27:51And I just don't suspect that it works that way. Yeah, it is a bit different. I'm probably not the right person to be getting into the technicals of the quantum engineering side before other businesses I'm focusing on. But I suppose my high level comment would be that the announcements I've been seeing last year from these firms is that they're seeing an improvement in error rates when they're adding qubits to the equation. So it does have a scaling benefit. And they're also seeing each year like a reduction and error rates. So it's very easy to focus and pick holes in any problem in technology.

28:24Same thing could be said for AI five, six years ago. Oh, it's not capable of this, or it doesn't scale that way, or the results are garbage, it's spitting out, or it's got lots of downtime. A lot of these things are parallels, I think, with quantum. And McKinsey, BCG, they're expecting multi-trillion economic value across industries within 10 years. And as well, you've got Q-Day, very highly likely within 10 years. And I believe, as I said, based on those forecasts, it's sort of two to five year range. And then if we have that, we have a bit of a hockey stick moment, a chat to a team moment, if you will, in the sort of coming years, which it's very easy to focus on problems.

28:59And humans are really good at generally solving problems. And we're programmed to think pessimistically and then focus on problems, but usually the innovation of these kinds of things will win. And as I said, it's really looking at that log chart where the progress is exponential and faster than Moore's law that I'm confident a lot of these things are just going to be continued to be solved on as they have been each year. I'm going to pull up a chart. We're going to transition a little bit more into Bitcoin and how this impacts Bitcoin. And then I would be really curious going beyond Bitcoin, what you think some of the implications are.

29:30But to frame this up for people, I've got a chart here that lays out the type of key that the public key, private key relationship that Bitcoin is built around for all the addresses and the output type that you have. When Bitcoin was first founded and stood up, we were using P2PK, and this is pay to public key. And this is the primary set of keys that are the issue. And with my research, and I'm curious if this is what you also have found as well, Charles, is it's about 25 % of the Bitcoin that currently exist are in this key type, which makes it vulnerable to Shor's algorithm if a quantum computer with the size that we talked about earlier existed.

30:16So that's a significant portion. Now, I think it's also important from 2010 to 2017 that they went to a pay-to-public key hash. So you take that public key, you would hash it so that it's not known what the public The key is unless you actually sign a transaction. And so anybody that has, and this is a majority of the Bitcoin, 75 % of the Bitcoin are already in this P2PKH or higher configuration. And so it would be protected in the interim as long as you didn't spend anything that that would be protected. Yeah, interim. They would. Very interim. them. Giving you a little bit of assurance, I guess, is the way to frame that.

31:01But I wanted to put this slide up so people can kind of see the timeline of when these different types of key outputs were, or the address outputs were used and what they've migrated to through the years. And let's talk about, Charles, what the solution is, because people are looking at this, they're probably hearing this conversation and saying, oh my God, this sounds really scary. But there's BIP 360. Beast Hunter was the main author of this, and it's out there for public purview to audit and look at. And as a soft fork to Bitcoin, meaning nodes that are running the older software, there's no issue with running the older software if people would upgrade or migrate to this new version that he's proposing with the BIP 360.

31:46But talk us through what that is and how that would work and kind of in application, what would that mean for people that currently hold Bitcoin and their own keys to migrate over to something like this? Yeah, I think, so I agree with you, the 25 % ballpark figure for the earliest key hashing process of the P2PK, I think it was the other screen at the top. So that's Satoshi's coin, and it's about 125 billion of those and then other wallets. The key thing with that is that when they write the blockchain, it's exposing or showing their public address. So everyone who is in Bitcoin has a public address and a private key.

32:22And the public address obviously is your wallet and then the private key allows you to access it and move funds. If you know a public key, then a quantum machine can theoretically back calculate what your private key is. And technically computers today could do that. It would just take infinite amount of years and you'd never get there in our lifetime. So that's not a risk. And that's how all encryption essentially works today. But given what we talked about with quantum, it can configure multiple options at the same time. It can close in on a solution to the private key very quickly. Again, once we get to that sort of 2 ,000, 3 ,000 qubit level.

32:56So those first wallet address systems like the Stoshy coins are exposed, but it's also any public keys that are published. So a lot of the exchanges, for example, have their wallets and public addresses known. So again, all those can move across to a new system like BIP 360 and the quantum BIP. This is again, the code improvement suggestions of a couple of Bitcoin developers. So there's solutions to get the active addresses across, but there are still other public key exposed wallets, which may not necessarily move across in time. So yeah, as you kind of mentioned, pressing the solutions to this, especially for the wallets that are active and managed and can move across.

33:38My point is that Stosh's coins, you know, largely everyone believes he's not going to be moving those coins ever again because maybe not around anymore. And a lot of the other early coins are just lost, right? People lost their wallets. They lost hard drives into the landfills and all sorts of funny stories from back in the day. So a lot of those coins will be unlocked no matter what we do by a quantum machine in that sort of two to eight year range. And that's sort of 20 to 30 % of supply. We don't know the exact number, but in that region. And that's, again, as I mentioned, but it's something we need to discuss as a community and how we're going to manage that.

34:11For the quantum solutions that are out there, the bits, my kind of take on it is I'm not here to say what's the right solution. You know, there's a few proposals out there. I just want to get the community talking about this and closing in and zeroing in on a consensus because as you and I know, consensus in Bitcoin is a viable. It's a mess. You know, I basically want to initiate like block wars, but for quantum, because I'm basically just concerned about the timelines at this point, right? So technology solutions are there. And I think if we all agreed today on the solution, we could, I think we could agree and then get it out in time.

34:46But the problem is that if we did agree today, the lead time to get everyone across to this new wallet infrastructure or this soft fork or hard fork, whatever it is, is going to take six to 12 months. And that's limitations of transaction throughput. So if you look at the flow through a Bitcoin in 30 days, and this is capped based on 10 minute block times, the number of transactions the network can actually process. If everyone with say over$100 in their wallet was to say, I'm going to move across to a new wallet, which is this quantum proof encrypted wallet, that's going to take 30 days, assuming no other traffic.

35:18If you want to do a test transaction, as we usually do, because you might have a significant sum of money on there and you don't want to lose it, then that double is 60 days, right? Add in organic traffic, probably double it again. You're basically at six months in a best case scenario of everyone agreeing and moving at the same time. So where I get concerned is that we know consensus takes time, probably best case a year, which is why I'm basically posting all the time. I want to see a solution agreed in 2026. If we get it solved in 2026 and agreed, then we might have a year to get to 2027 to roll it out.

35:50And that's at the kind of leading edge risk frontier, I suppose, for when a quantum machine could break Bitcoin, right? Hopefully it's further out. But if we have the kind of blasé approach that, oh, it might be four years, it might be 10 years or 15 years. If we're one minute too late on upgrading this and getting everyone across, the whole trust system of Bitcoin is built on its trusting the code and its security, right? Like it took us 16 years for Bitcoin to get to 2 trillion and it's hard to gain trust and easily lost. So if we were to see 10, 20, 30, or whatever percent of supply unlocks all of a sudden over a 12-month period, whether that be in two years' time or three years' time or five years' time, and we hadn't solved on this, I think the whole trust system and network collapses.

36:34So basically, I'm just trying to sound the alarm on all of this because we need to get the consensus in my view next year to roll out and deploy everything within two years from now so that we're on the leading edge and we're not one minute late. Let's take a quick break and hear from today's sponsors. Spending my days digging through the financials of the world's best businesses, and one thing becomes obvious fast. The companies that win are the ones that can actually see what's happening inside their own operation. And these days, they say that every day your business is late to AI, you fall two days behind.

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40:21That's shopify.com slash TIP. All right, back to the show. So Charles, I think you're being really conservative with these numbers that you're saying as far as how long the migration would take. Because I've run this math back when I made my video back in January. And then I just, while you were talking, I ran it again because the numbers that I remembered were much longer than that. And when I ran it again for any type of pub key that has over a hundred US dollars worth of value in it, if you were going to migrate all of those addresses that have over a hundred worth of Bitcoin in them, starting right now, it's saying that that would take anywhere from 10 to 30 months in order to migrate all of that over.

41:09And I think part of the issue is just the sheer size of the transactions now. So when you migrate over to, and this is using BIP 360 as kind of like, let's say that was passed and you can see it here on the slide, Post-quantum signatures are huge, often 1 to 20 kilobytes versus the 70 bytes that they are today. So when you're comparing the block size and you're making these transactions into the current block, assuming that the block sizes don't change, there's not nearly as much space to put these in there. And then you just kind of assume if everybody's making that migration that you kind of need to do it right now, assuming that this, that the timeline, this, and again, these timelines, who knows what the timelines actually are, folks.

41:54We don't know what the timelines are, but let's say it's four years from now. Let's say it's five years from now. And we need to shoot for an aggressive timeline to get the engineering in place and the testing and people to start migrating their keys over to this. it could take a while for everybody to rotate their keys out and this is something that i don't hear anybody talking about at all it's like how long the migration will take once the solution is there and we're not even talking about the fighting that's gonna happen it's gonna be chaos it's gonna be chaos yeah it's not gonna be yeah pleasant i don't think if i if i do a tweet just on this topic i get blasted yes by like totally polar views and total uh it's inconvenient agreement on both sides.

42:39It's inconvenient. That's what I found because I talked about it. In fact, I know this episode is going to create all sorts of drama just by posting this. And you know what I've discovered? It's an inconvenient thing to talk about. People don't, which tells you that's where you need to be focusing your attention as opposed to a filter discussion. Like this is a real thing that needs to be solved and it needs to be worked on. And I'm not saying something needs to be passed today, but the amount of rigor and attention that's been looked at with respect to BIP 360, I think is really like been neglected, I guess is my point of view.

43:17Absolutely. And that's why I've been really getting loud on this. You're right. My timeline of migration of six to 12 months is super optimistic. I think you had almost one year to three years, right? And we're in that realm. Sorry, five years, potentially one to five years is what you're saying. Yeah. And I'm sorry, I use the word conservative and that's probably not the right word. The word is it's an optimistic view of like how long it's, yeah. So I know I was trying to be a bit optimistic, but you know, you've obviously considered even the size of each block in the BIP 360 solution. And that's a good point.

43:47It is bigger. And so that's something we haven't really thought about. And maybe it needs to reopen the block size discussion as well, in order to allow a faster migration. And you want to talk about serious drama. I would go down that path. The thing, like if the migration time is five years, I think we're done, right? Like, because we're not going to get to agreement for at least a year. Yeah. So this is why we need to be talking about it and say, okay, well, if that's not going to work, then maybe we need to increase the block size or change this or that, whatever it may be to make sure the timeline is achievable.

44:17So at the end of the day, I'm optimistic we'll solve it in time, but it's not going to happen unless we have these hard discussions now. And it's kind of like, you know, a little bit of pain and, you know, difficult discussions now in order to avoid a nightmare scenario in five, six years or two years or in the future. So I think that you're right. We just need to bring light to this and create conversation to this and probably a centralized place to be resolving this. It's not really even clear to me where we all converge to solve on this and agree something. At the moment, it's just a tornado of arguments where I see half the people are starting to agree with it now.

44:56Whereas when I was tweeting about this a year ago, I'd get zero engagement. And now people are like, okay, yeah, this kind of starts to make sense. And that's where it was for me. I've been watching this for a few years, like quietly, occasionally posting about it for a few years, starting to get myself a quantum hedge in the last few years. And then now I'm like, I just can't wait any longer because I've invested all of my time and energy, like life and death basically in the last eight years in Bitcoin, building models for Bitcoin, open source on-chain models for Bitcoin, trying to value it, find intrinsic value for it, living and breathing it, effectively being leveraged long Bitcoin in my sort of personal situation for that timeframe.

45:31And it's like, I want this to survive. And so like, we have to have this hard chat now to get to that solution or it's just all for nothing. Yeah. I think another big challenge with it is most people just have, myself included, just have no clue how this actually works. Like I've done some research. I try to understand the terminology. But at the end of the day, I truly do not understand quantum and how it really works and all of that. I think it's such an esoteric idea and people hear it and it's always just been this canary in the coal mine that was like a false cue in the past. And anytime it was brought up, everybody just rolled their eyes and like walked away.

46:11But the impetus for me to make the video back in January, I saw Elon Musk retweet the Microsoft announcement when they did the Majorana 1 topological qubit processor. And this was kind of a breakthrough in how they were going about trying to build it from a physical standpoint. And they hadn't achieved any type of logical qubits at that point. But there was an announcement by the Microsoft CEO that by, I think he said 2027, they were going to have a million qubit processor was the quote. And this really got my attention because I knew some of the basic numbers that you've kind of put laid out in some of the slides here.

46:48And I heard a million qubits. Well, like how many logical qubits is that? And of course I couldn't get an answer anywhere. I looked online, but this June is where I found that IBM had talked about hitting 200 logical, but I still don't know where the Majorana one, Microsoft one is going to go. So like part of the challenge in understanding this space and why I think a lot of people will immediately just roll their eyes as opposed to take it serious is I think that the industry is hiding a lot of like what their actual logical cupids are. There's confusion in the terminology, there's confusion in the tech.

47:26And because there's so much posturing and trying to get dollars for their labs and like all of that, I think nobody takes it serious. And I think everybody's just like, ah, it's nothing. But I agree with you. It might be AI 2021 when everybody was like, oh, that's nothing. That's never going to be anything. and look at where we are four years later it's like we're talking about AGI. I mean that thought process to me reminds me a lot of how everyone else thought about Bitcoin five to ten years ago yeah where the common consensus is kind of zero it's a scam it's uh you know it's money for drugs whatever it's the common approach I'll research it and google it for 10 minutes and look at a few news articles and they agree with what I'm saying and so therefore I'm done whereas is you know I I think Mike Stalos said you need to spend whatever it be, 100 hours or many hours to really understand what's going on.

48:16And if you do it and you go into the annual reports, the statements of what all these companies are doing, those logical qubit numbers are not really that hidden. A lot of them are available and the timelines are pretty available too, right? You know, some of the ones we touched on, I'll share some slides as well after this. But yeah, I just think it's coming. And if we put our head in the sand because we're not educated on it, that's a big problem. And it's many comparables like AI, it's Bitcoin a few years ago, right? It's doing the work. You don't have to be an expert on quantum engineering to assess the real risk of this, putting together the analysis and the results of others are experts in the space.

48:55Yeah. Yeah. I think the one thing we can all agree on is like, why are we not making this a bigger conversation point? And why is the community not kind of rallying around getting a solution in place? and I think it's starting to happen now. Yeah. Getting a lot of energy around it in the last couple of weeks, especially. And that's, I think that's good. And it just needs to get a lot louder to get the discussions going and the right people in the right places to converge in solutions. People reviewing the code, right? You know, if people don't agree with different elements of the code, that all needs to be happening now so that we can converge on a solution next year.

49:33Let's go into this part of the conversation and then we'll wrap it up. You're investing in this space. Okay. Yeah. You know, I mean, this is an investing podcast, but we're always looking for investment opportunities. Help us wrap our head around like the investment side of this. I could only imagine how CapEx intensive some of this research is with, for all intensive purposes, and correct me if I'm wrong, zero utility today. Like you're not going out and using any of these quantum processors that like actually no businesses are using these things yet. But, you know, based on the timelines and the things we're looking at, that day could be on the horizon, call it in five years, within five years that it's actually being put into practical use and it's helping people make money and provide value into the market.

50:18So how do you think about this when we're so early in the timeline with a bit of fog there, kind of understanding where the hockey stick curve is going to start bending and turning into real value for customers? Yeah. So the first thing to note is that the revenues of these companies are going up between 50 and 100 % a year. So there is significant revenue growth year and year. Because you can use it. So quantum is on every major cloud platform today. Google, Azure, AWS. So you can hire and use quantum machines now. Now there's some stability issues. There's all sorts of other issues. But like we talked to, there's multiple use cases today that firms are using it in drug discovery, in financial optimizations.

50:59and it's showing improvements in those processes already today. So that's another common misunderstanding is that they think there's no use case. The other thing is there's a whole sector of quantum security, which is a whole industry of consulting, but also services, sorry, tech to roll out quantum proof encryption across every asset class. So the biggest mistake some people make is that, oh, if they're going to break Bitcoin, they'll just break the banks or they'll break some other tech first. but traditional banks and other traditional institutions of mostly quantum proof already already started to upgrade their encryption to be quantum proof.

51:34But even where they haven't, most banks and platforms stay at 2FA. And 2FA is quantum resistant because you only get a few attempts at 2FA, you can't simulate an infinite number of solutions to solve a 2FA key. Again, this is assuming you're storing it all in the right way and that sort of thing. But a generic login today is much more quantum resistant than Bitcoin. And then you have the fact that these networks are centralized and they can always roll back if something goes wrong. The whole philosophy of Bitcoin is that is not a thing. So Bitcoin is the number one asset class on the chopping block.

52:06It's also the biggest honeypot. And it's also got the nearest front edge risk horizon of basically every asset class. Jumping back to your question on revenues, they're still very small today and the valuations are not justified by the revenues. But as I said, they're doubling in many cases year on year. And I don't think it's reasonable to value an emerging tech that has limited utility on its revenues today, because if you did that with AI five years ago, it would be worth zero as well. You have to really look at the trends of where the development's going, the qubits, the error rates, what the mathematical papers are saying the capabilities will be when you get to multi-thousand qubit capability, the variety of industry applications, and just the jump step in innovation that's going to happen when we have that capability in the next few years.

52:51And QDay also in the next few years being the risk to all traditional encryption. So you have to value it in that scenario, right? So if a quantum firm can, and again, the legality of this is very questionable, but if a quantum firm was to take a hundred billion of Satoshi's coins in three years, they would fund all of quantum development for the last decade. So, you know, and maybe that may not happen by a US firm, but I'm sure there's other countries that'd be very happy to do that. Yeah. And that's, I'm not saying we should value it based on crime, but that's the kind of level of unlocking capability and value that I believe is coming in the very near future.

53:27Do you find that, like we were talking about the Microsoft's Majorana One, and you just look at the sheer capital that a company like Microsoft has to put behind further and further investments in R &D to see this as a reality, do you find that they're going to have a huge advantage relative to some of the smaller firms that are going after this or is this kind of a with intelligence today it's just so accessible via ai and just kind of immediately sniffing out what the other competitors doing is there a competitive mode around the intellectual property and like what's happening inside of some of these smaller labs versus the larger ones that have tons of capital to throw behind them yeah great question like the world today is much less siloed it's hard to conceal information and it's easy to leverage others work which probably also speeds things up a little bit.

54:18But yeah, I think it's really hard to pick who the winners will be. With Bitcoin and crypto five, 10 years ago, it was pretty obvious that Bitcoin was the king and we all were pretty aligned in that. Whereas with this asset class, like I said, there's about 60 different players. How do you know who's going to be the leading edge of this? Especially when often they're working on completely different technology solutions to come about the same. So different processes to come about the same solution, very different directions and some of them probably will fail. So I don't have a great answer to that.

54:46I think obviously the big tech firms will have huge budgets to deploy in R &D and that will continue to scale. I think you're seeing NVIDIA, like Jensen, the start of the year, he said, quantum's 15 to 30 years away. And a couple of months later, he said, I was wrong about the timeline. And then in June, he said, we're at an inflection point for quantum. And then last month has been investing billions in quantum. So - I really like this slide. You did a great job presenting this in a presentation you did recently, and I'm just throwing it up so people can see it. You can see this progression happen within months of him saying it's 15 to 30 years away.

55:19And that was in January, back when I made this video, that video I keep referencing. And then in March, he says, I was wrong about the timeline. June, we're at an inflection point. And then he's investing, what is it? He's investing billions of dollars into the space. So for me, this is also a like bitcoin because we saw jamie diamond and various other banks few years ago saying oh it's never going to happen yeah ray dalio saying oh it's a joke sort of thing or what you know zero allocation and then suddenly like click like a year or two later either they're unleashing all their etfs or they're recommending in their portfolios or they're saying i personally own it it's the same thing like it's so easy to dismiss ideas and concepts when you look at it superficially but then when you dive in you realize wait a minute this is something significant and as always is you follow the money, right?

56:06Often these guys will say one thing and then if you follow what the money's doing on their side, it's doing the exact opposite. So yeah, I can't say who the winners will be. And that's why for me, a diversified allocation, this is important. As you said, I hold quite a bit of Bitcoin. Some people think maybe I'm short or having some weird positioning about this. No, I actually want this to work. I'm long Bitcoin. I have more Bitcoin than quantum. I think Bitcoin will go higher in the near term, provided we solve on this. but with that that needs to be acted on really quickly I think in the next sort of 12 months to get towards a solution and for me at the same time it's important to have a quantum hedge so a diversified basket of these assets there's not really a great way to do that and that's why we've spent the last few months building an index of quantum assets and of pure quantum companies we've published that live on our website and we're currently in the works towards making a US listed quantum ETF.

57:00So I think this is an important hedge for me. I still obviously ultra committed towards solving this for Bitcoin. And I said to my position in Bitcoin is significant, but I can't take that risk anymore. And that's why I've been speaking up about this so much recently. Well, Charles, at the very least, getting the conversation going is super important. And I think that you do that really well. You present the facts as they exist. We both acknowledge We don't know the timeline, but to sit here and act like it's not going to happen, I think is the fool's errand more so than anything. And, you know, like you, I just want to see people start taking this very seriously and start working towards the solution.

57:39Cause I mean, the BIP 360 is already out there. Let's beat that around and let's kind of figure out a way to get it implemented or get something that's even better implemented. But yeah, yeah. Love it. We'll have links in the show notes to all the things that you mentioned there. Anything else that you want to highlight before we close this out? No, I think that's it. I just keep reiterating the same points. But yeah, as you say, we've got to talk about it. We've got to narrow in the solution. We've got to critique the solutions, provide better ones if it's necessary and just and get consensus as soon as we can.

58:10Love it. Well, thanks for coming on today and great to see you again. It's been way too long and I really enjoyed it, Charles. My pleasure. I enjoyed it too. Thanks, Preston. Thank you for listening to TIP. make sure to follow bitcoin fundamentals on your favorite podcast app and never miss out on episodes to access our show notes transcripts or courses go to the investors podcast.com this show is for entertainment purposes only before making any decision consult a professional this show is copyrighted by the investors podcast network written permission must be granted before syndication or rebroadcasting