1385: Food Deserts | Skeptical Sunday

10:13Jordan Harbinger:No, and they're not isolated. People leave their neighborhoods for other reasons than to just go to a supermarket. So it just might be part of other errands or part of your commute. But for most people, that's just it. They're just inconvenienced. And that's an important distinction. So if people weren't reaching supermarkets at all, then building one nearby should dramatically change where they buy. But if they're already making the trip, even if it's inconvenient, then a new store mostly changes where they shop or whether they have access in the first place.

10:45Jessica Wynn:So then we build the stores anyway. What happens?

10:48Jordan Harbinger:Well, researchers tracked over 6 ,700 supermarkets, which opened across the U.S. between 2004 and 2016. and they measured diet quality before and after a store opened nearby using the healthy eating index. And the finding was almost nothing. Opening a new supermarket in a food desert improved nearby households' diet quality by 0.021 standard deviations.

11:17Jessica Wynn:Oh, I remember Chet GPT-ing standard deviation 100 times in the past couple of years. I don't totally get it, but it's supposed to be a whole number if it's big. and 0.021 is like basically zero, right? Pretty much, yeah.

11:32Jordan Harbinger:And what it translates to is about one and a half percent of the diet gap. That's the difference in overall diet quality between lower income and higher income households.

11:44Jessica Wynn:That is astonishingly small. So yeah, that's - It's functionally invisible, right? Yes, yeah, good way to put it. So we spent a billion dollars to move the needle, 1.5%. 1.5 % of the gap. That is after building a whole supermarket and all these, oh, that's so depressing.

12:03Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, correct.

12:04Jessica Wynn:That's being the rounding error, but it's a billion dollar rounding error. So it's a rounding error in fixing the problem and it's a billion dollars of just funds lit on fire, essentially.

12:14Jordan Harbinger:And that's the large scale data. But then you have the real world case studies. So a real supermarket opens in a real food desert and researchers go in to see what happens. It happens in Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, New York City. In Philly, a supermarket opened in a low-income neighborhood that had officially been classified as a food desert. Researchers measured diet quality six to 11 months after the supermarket opened. They found no significant change in fruit and vegetable intake, no significant change in BMI or body mass index among the people living in that neighborhood.

12:52Jessica Wynn:So even the success stories weren't really success stories?

12:55Jordan Harbinger:Not really. And New York tells a similar story. They have a program called Fresh Food Retail Expansion to support health. And it subsidized a new store in Morisanya, which is a low-income neighborhood in the Bronx. Researchers found that about 90 % of residents were already shopping at supermarkets before the new one opened.

13:17Jessica Wynn:So what actually changed?

13:19Jordan Harbinger:Well, when it did open, it just changed which supermarket they drove to. It didn't really change their relationship with healthy food.

13:26Jessica Wynn:Oh, I see. So all we really changed was which parking lot people pulled into to buy their Cheetos or pizzas or whatever.

13:33Jordan Harbinger:Pretty much. And the Pittsburgh case is genuinely fascinating and a little heartbreaking. The Rand Corporation did a long study of a new HFFI-supported supermarket that opened in a neighborhood called the Hill District. and they did find improvements in diet quality in the neighborhood after it opened. The results were real. People were eating better.

13:53Jessica Wynn:Okay, so finally it works? I don't know.

13:57Jordan Harbinger:That's what it looked like until researchers looked closer. Diet quality improved by the same amount among people who regularly shopped at the new supermarket and people who never set foot inside it.

14:09Jessica Wynn:Wait, the people who never even shopped there improved just as much? I don't understand.

14:13Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, that's what makes this study so important. So if shopping at the new supermarket wasn't what distinguished the people whose diets improved, then the supermarket probably wasn't the thing improving their diets.

14:26Jessica Wynn:I see. OK, so what was improving their diets, I guess, is the obvious question here. I don't know. This is confusing because, like, I don't get how this is possible.

14:34Jordan Harbinger:It's confusing, but the researchers think the improvements may have come from the broader community investment that accompanied the store. Things like new housing developments came in, a community center was built, a workforce development center opened. So the neighborhood itself was getting better. The supermarket was just kind of along for the ride. You know, the store, it just happened to arrive at the same time, but it wasn't the driver.

15:00Jessica Wynn:OK, so the supermarket got the credit for something the neighborhood actually did. That's weirdly hopeful, but it's so annoying. It's deeply annoying, actually, at the same time. Right.

15:10Jordan Harbinger:I mean, that's public health. And here's the kicker. That Pittsburgh store closed in 2019. Why? That's such a waste. I know. Yeah, it just closed its doors because not enough people were shopping there to keep it viable.

15:24Jessica Wynn:It's almost like the market had already shown that a supermarket needed to be further away to be profitable.

15:28Jordan Harbinger:Right, right. There was just insufficient local demand. And a store that was subsidized by public money to serve a community closed because the community didn't care about it. They weren't shopping there enough to keep it profitable.

15:43Jessica Wynn:So the store wasn't failing because it was a bad grocery store. It was failing because the economics of the area just never changed.

15:49Jordan Harbinger:Right. I mean, the irony of all of this is almost too much. That's what makes it so confusing. But the underlying issues haven't disappeared. No one addresses these signals, even though the evidence has been getting louder for about a decade. So there's something called Healthy People 2030, the federal government's big public health framework. And that quietly dropped retail food access as a priority from its nutrition and healthy eating objectives. It was in the 2020 version. It's gone now.

16:20Jessica Wynn:No announcement, just they hit delete. It's Homer Simpson sliding into the bushes. Like, we're just going to pretend that never happened.

16:28Jordan Harbinger:Maybe nobody will notice. Yeah. And the public often misses when policies just disappear, right? We only tend to see things that are implemented. So researchers have continued finding that simply improving retail food access produces much smaller dietary changes than policymakers originally hoped.

16:48Jessica Wynn:Okay, so if proximity to a grocery store isn't what's driving these health disparities, what is driving the health disparities? Because they're real. The disparities are real. Poor communities really do have worse health outcomes. That's not in dispute. So what's actually causing the disparities? I mean, it's not just like, oh, doctors are expensive, so they never get health care, right? The diet thing is real. I hate to use anecdotal evidence because everyone's like, you're using an anecdote, which means you don't have real evidence. But when something you're telling me matches an anecdote, I'm going to tell it, which is that Nick Pell, who also contributes to Skeptical Sunday all the time, he's a gigantic meathead bodybuilder type guy.

17:24Jessica Wynn:It looks like a dangerous biker criminal, basically. And he lives in some part of Arizona that's not near anything, basically. It's in a small town. And he goes to the store and he loads up his cart with like frozen chicken breasts and steak and eggs and stuff like that. He's always complaining about what other people are buying, right? He's like, I can't believe people eat like this, right? Because they're eating frozen pizza and frozen lasagna and frozen everything. And I was like, oh, yeah, that reminds me I'm doing an episode about food deserts. And he's like, yeah, food deserts, mood deserts, right?

17:53Jessica Wynn:Because it's Nick Pell. And he's like, I don't believe it. These people just don't make good choices. And I felt like, oh, that's kind of a mean thing to say. Like, maybe they don't know. But he might be kind of onto something because he's like, look, you can get vegetables, you can get chicken. It's just that it's not as tasty as a giant sausage pizza. I get it.

18:10Jordan Harbinger:I mean, he's definitely on a better track than our policymakers. And this is where the research gets uncomfortable. The most comprehensive study on this came from a team of economists at Chicago Booth, NYU and Stanford, who asked a simple question. What if low income households had the same food environment as higher income households? Would they eat the same? And they use that same enormous Nielsen data set, 60 ,000 households, a decade of grocery purchases to try to figure it out. And? Well, equalizing food access and prices completely, the full intervention would only close about 9, maybe 10 percent of the diet gap.

18:55Jessica Wynn:So 90 percent of the diet gap is still something else. OK, what is it?

19:00Jordan Harbinger:So 90 % is what economists call preference heterogeneity. In plain English, differences in what people choose to buy. So high-income households were willing to pay nearly twice as much for the recommended daily amount of vegetables and nearly three times as much for fruit. Lower-income households, on average, spent more of their food budget on foods higher in sugar and saturated fat. People usually make the best decision they can inside the environment they're in.

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21:39Jessica Wynn:It's a great companion to the show, highly practical, and an under-two-minute read. Really can't beat it. JordanHarbinger.com slash news is where you can find it. Now, back to Skeptical Sunday. Were you the one telling me about$20 strawberries the other day? Or$19 strawberries? But it was like one strawberry? I did it.

21:57Jordan Harbinger:I bought the$20 strawberry at Air One because it was curiosity. Not because I thought it was going to be a miracle strawberry.

22:05Jessica Wynn:But you got taller, so it was worth it.

22:07Jordan Harbinger:I know, I'm like 6 '6 now.

22:10Jessica Wynn:Yeah, that's actually insane. When you told me that, I was like, Like, how rich would I have to be to buy a strawberry for$19? Like, at what point are you just like, screw it. I'm so rich, it'll never make a difference. I want a bucket of$19 strawberries. I just don't think I ever get that. I just want to be clear.

22:25Jordan Harbinger:I bought one$20 strawberry. Of course.

22:28Jessica Wynn:That's worse, by the way. That's actually worse than buying a bunch of them. You actually just ate one. I mean, at least drop a grand and have like a strawberry cake or something.

22:37Jordan Harbinger:Spoiler, everybody.

22:38Jessica Wynn:It was like a strawberry. It tasted like a strawberry.

22:40Jordan Harbinger:It didn't change my life.

22:42Jessica Wynn:So on average, lower income households really were choosing those less healthy foods. And I know people are like, you're poor shaming or fat shaming. But it's like this is what the data says, right? I'm not just being a dick here.

22:53Jordan Harbinger:Sure. Yeah. I mean, this is this is a delicate thing to discuss. But I mean, at that moment in time, yes, that was true. But we have to really understand the nuance here that preference isn't the same thing as people naturally like junk food. So economists use the word differently than we do. Preferences are shaped by culture, advertising, prices, stress, time, and what food was available growing up, what we were used to eating. So they're learned. They're not fixed.

23:27Jessica Wynn:That kind of data can lead people to some pretty bad conclusions, which leads to very bad policy. And it's exactly the kind of finding people here and immediately turn into, well, those people just don't care about eating healthy. But also that's kind of get why somebody might think that.

23:41Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, I mean, of course, that's exactly right. But that's not what the research is actually saying. So the mistake is treating preferences as though they appeared out of nowhere and people just don't care about their health. That's not what happens. Preferences have causes. They're the product of decades of food marketing, agricultural policy, family tradition, economic constraints, and just the environment people grew up in. So when economists say, quote unquote, preference gap, they're describing the outcome, not assigning blame. So building a supermarket doesn't undo 30 years of learned behavior.

24:21Jordan Harbinger:You know, geography doesn't automatically change diets.

24:25Jessica Wynn:OK, but if the culture is really that powerful, what does that actually look like in the real world?

24:30Jordan Harbinger:So there's a real striking illustration of this that John McWhorter wrote about. Well, West Harlem has had a full service supermarket called Fairway Market for over 15 years. It's well stocked. It has great fresh produce, good prices. And it's right there in the middle of a really dense neighborhood. It's not hidden. It's not hard to get to.

24:52Jessica Wynn:Yeah, I've actually been there. My buddy lives in Harlem and I always love to go up there and eat Peruvian food or Dominican food or whatever with him because he can go. he's got that street cred to go into like the good place and get the good stuff with the special treatment. And if somebody comes around yelling and screaming at people, he gives them the Harlem stink eye and they go away. But actually, Harlem is bougie now. Have you when's the last time you were there? I can. Some parts of it are bougie.

25:16Jordan Harbinger:I was there a couple of years ago. I mean, I've been there since the after the pandemic, which is, I guess, how I.

25:21Jessica Wynn:Yeah.

25:23Jordan Harbinger:Distinguished time now. But But yeah, it's different. It's definitely been, yeah, upgraded, I would say. For sure.

25:30Jessica Wynn:I mean, when I lived in New York, it was in the early aughts, right? So like 2004-ish, you know, and on. So my buddy, I met my buddy and he worked at the same law firm as me and he's like, come up to Harlem. And I was like, oh my God, Harlem? And he's like, chill out, dude, it's fine. And he's like, I'll meet you on, I don't know, like 100, you know, 101 or something. So I was like, okay. And then I would walk up there and I was like, okay, yeah, it's a little bit like, you know, I don't know. I probably wouldn't walk here alone at night, but it's fine. And he's like, it's also fine at night, dude, calm down.

26:02Jessica Wynn:And then I walked up last year when I went to visit him and I was like, hey, um, what the heck happened to this place? He's like, oh yeah. Cause he's like, meet me at Chez Mama on 103. And I was like, uh, what? Cause the last time I walked up there, it was like a little rough, a lot of. bodegas and nail salons and stuff like that, like businesses, normal ones. Now it's like bougie coffee shop and another bougie place of the valet and then a new housing thing and a brand new this and a brand new that. And then we were having Dominican food and we were sitting outside. This guy is like yelling and screaming, not like violently, just like across the street at his boy.

26:38Jessica Wynn:And I was like, I wasn't expecting that. He's like, oh no, that guy, that guy's been here for a while. You could tell he's, he's still got the old Harlem in him, right? Cause he's like having a conversation with a dude across the street by screaming next to a cafe. And everyone's like, how dare you and my buddy Kerwin's just like nope that's just kind of how I grew up that's uh that guy lives here you can tell like this is his neighborhood so yeah it Harlem's actually awesome like I'm sure if you move to New York now and you get a chance to live there it's probably one of the best neighborhoods like one of the most interesting neighborhoods oh it's so fun yeah but yeah 25 years ago I don't know you might want to be a little bit careful about where you live if you're like a blonde white dude running down the road to your stockbroker job I don't know right

27:18Jordan Harbinger:Right, right. You might get the Harlem stink eye then.

27:21Jessica Wynn:Yeah, exactly. You might be on the receiving end of that. Anyway, so yeah, I've been to that fairway market. It's nice.

27:25Jordan Harbinger:But yeah, and you can see it in the obesity rates in West Harlem. They remain dramatically higher than those in Greenwich Village, even though the neighborhoods have changed so much, and that's just a few miles downtown. That store is there, but the health gap still persists.

27:44Jessica Wynn:Yeah, same access, different outcomes. So what is driving the difference? Because it's like you said, it's not just the grocery store anymore. This thing is two blocks away. So what's the deal?

27:53Jordan Harbinger:Right, not at all. And this is where John McWhorter's point is really important. So food culture is real and it's durable. McWhorter was writing about Black communities, but this applies broadly. Southern Black food culture was shaped by slavery and sharecropping, where salt and fat were lifestyle choices. They were survival. And those food traditions didn't disappear once circumstances changed. They became family traditions just like they do in every culture. The same way Italian-Americans still eat a ton of pasta three generations after immigration.

28:31Jessica Wynn:Or Jewish people still eat gefilte fish even though nobody actually enjoys it. Right, right. You just have to do it. Yeah, exactly.

28:37Jordan Harbinger:And this is where the food desert narrative can just quietly go wrong. At its worst, it implies that low-income families just lack the knowledge or desire to eat well. What the evidence actually shows is that they face real economic constraints, real-time constraints, and deeply rooted, historically shaped food preferences that a supermarket does not override. What do you mean by time constraints? So this is the piece almost completely missing from the food access debate. For a working parent with two jobs, multiple kids and no car, the binding constraint isn't always distance to a grocery store.

29:17Jordan Harbinger:It's time, right? Cooking a healthy meal might take 45 minutes if you've already bought the groceries, if you have a functioning kitchen and you get home at a reasonable time with the energy. A frozen meal or fast food run takes five minutes.

29:33Jessica Wynn:Yeah.

29:33Jordan Harbinger:So time is a form of privilege we often forget about, and no grocery store, however close, will solve that problem.

29:42Jessica Wynn:That is a really good point. So we've been solving the geography of hunger when it's a clock problem sometimes.

29:48Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, and policy definitely does not reflect that because it measures everything in miles to the nearest store.

29:55Jessica Wynn:Yeah, it just seems like flawed economic theory. You know, it's interesting. When I worked in Detroit 30 years ago, I remember I drove my mom's, I think at the time, Ford Taurus down there. Every dad had a Ford Taurus. Yeah, I mean, everyone's dad had a Ford Taurus, right? So I would drive that down there and you'd see these women who are like outside of the bodega, the convenience store or walking by. And they go, hey, honey, you driving? And I would be like, why? And they're like, can you drop me off at the grocery store? And I remember that that was I thought that was like a weird pickup line until I heard it the 50th time going to work.

30:28Jessica Wynn:And I was I asked my boss, I was like, hey, who lived in the neighborhood? I was like, hey, why are these women constantly like, hey, honey, you drive in? What are they trying to do? And he's like, I think they actually just need a ride because if you go to the grocery store, you have to wait for the bus with all your bags and then maybe stand. So it's really nice to get a ride to the grocery store or a ride back from the grocery store. Like, it's really, really a luxury to not have to tote that crap on the bus and then walk from the bus stop to the, and I was like, oh, man, I'm so sheltered.

30:59Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, a gallon of milk's heavy.

31:00Jessica Wynn:Yeah, so imagine what you have a bunch of people in your family, so you have four gallons of milk and cereal and chicken and pasta. Like, you're carrying six bags, it's summertime, and you're on the bus, maybe you don't even get a seat. So, yeah, that sucks. If I were braver slash more reckless, I probably would have given these people a ride to the grocery store. But something about giving a stranger a ride in Detroit in the 90s was not appealing to me.

31:23Jordan Harbinger:That is such a great example because it is that travel cost. It is the time that's added waiting for public transportation. Or if you do have a car, the gas and just the hassle, you know, that acts like almost like a shipping fee. So if you're driving seven miles to a grocery store, that cost applies to everything in your cart. So relatively speaking, the healthier, more expensive items get cheaper, which means people who travel farther may actually buy better groceries than people who have a store down the block because they're putting more thought and time and energy into their shopping list.

32:05Jessica Wynn:I want to go back real quick to measuring everything by miles to the nearest store because that just seems like flawed economic theory.

32:11Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, well, economists developed the theory in 1964. it's called the Alkian-Allen theorem, sometimes nicknamed shipping the good apples out. So say regular coffee costs$1.50 a pound and premium costs$3. At the store, the premium costs twice as much. But now imagine both have to be shipped somewhere and shipping adds a dollar to each pound. Regular coffee becomes$2.50 and premium becomes$4. So premium coffee is still more expensive, but the difference between them suddenly feels smaller. Since you're already paying the same extra cost either way, spending a little more for the better coffee, it starts to seem worth it.

32:55Jessica Wynn:So in some cases, the inconvenience is doing nutritional work.

32:59Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, in a way, yes. And if you remove that fixed cost by putting a store right next door, you can actually make cheap, unhealthy food relatively more attractive again. that there's even some evidence of small negative effects on diet quality when the new store is open.

33:17Jessica Wynn:I see. That's an interesting wrinkle. So we tend to think convenience is always a good thing, but convenience cuts both ways. Is it ever the case that the store is there, but what's inside isn't what we think? Like what, maybe it's a food mirage to go off the metaphor.

33:31Jordan Harbinger:Yeah. I mean, this is an important concept that the standard food desert metrics, they completely miss that too. A food mirage, it is a thing. And it's when a neighborhood technically has a supermarket, but the in-store environment is skewed and effectively stocked differently. There could be fewer fresh options, more processed foods at eye level, and more aggressive junk food promotions. So the store counts as healthy food access on the government's map, but inside the store, not so much. I mean, I think we've all been to those little grocery stores where the produce section is just surprisingly small, you know?

34:11Jessica Wynn:Yeah. Well, again, in New York, they don't have a lot of space. So you'll go to some bodegas and there's fruit and vegetables and you're like, oh, OK. But obviously, it's probably more bang for the buck space wise if they just sell Doritos. Right. So exactly.

34:27Jordan Harbinger:And it's easier for the store to stock because they don't have to worry about shelf life.

34:32Jessica Wynn:Right, because Doritos last, they're like cockroaches. They're still good after 100 years. They'll survive the apocalypse. That's right. They'll survive the apocalypse. The coloring will be faded off the package and it'll still be crunchy and delicious inside. So, okay, yeah, the map says Oasis and the aisles say Cheetos.

34:47Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, and there's research suggesting that large discount stores in low-income areas may promote less healthy food more aggressively because that's what sells. So the store arrives and brings targeted junk food marketing with it.

35:02Jessica Wynn:So the desert was filled with a pool, but the pool is filled with Sprite. Gross. My eyes hurt. I know, right? Man, the tinglyness, though. Do dollar stores make food deserts worse? I feel like we have a zillion of those around here, too. And there's an argument that they're making things worse, right? I feel like I've read articles where it's like, oh, the Dollar General or whatever is the reason that there's no Kroger in this neighborhood. I don't know.

35:31Jordan Harbinger:The dollar stores are brilliant. You know, they are incredibly efficient businesses. They go into low-income areas. They capture the staples market like cleaning products, can goods, and snacks. But they carry almost no fresh food, no meaningful produce. There's really limited dairy. There's no meat counter.

35:51Jessica Wynn:So you can get a can of something. you can't get fresh vegetables. You can survive there, but you can't really eat well there unless you're hamming it up on creamed corn and bacon bites or something like that.

36:02Jordan Harbinger:Right, but if it's on your block, it's gonna be much easier to forget about produce and buy the processed food. And once a dollar store moves in, it can siphon off just enough local spending to make a full-service grocery store financially unviable.

36:19Jessica Wynn:Okay, right, because if they're selling all the junk food and the junk food is the highest margin or whatever, and then people only go to the grocery store for an onion. A grocery store says, look, man, we're not selling the stuff that we need to stay open. So they close and then nobody sells onions anymore. They're not filling a gap, the dollar store. They're locking it in and sort of locking out fresh produce business or the fresh food business.

36:42Jordan Harbinger:Absolutely. There's a report from the Institute for Local Self-Reliance, which is a nonprofit research group that studies local economies and competition. Arguing that dollar stores aren't just a symptom of economic distress, they can actually contribute to it. So cities have started responding. In 2018, Tulsa, Oklahoma created what's called a healthy food overlay district in North Tulsa, which is a predominantly black neighborhood where dollar stores had become so concentrated that some were less than a block apart from each other. That's insane to me to just even think about. And under the new rule, any new dollar store has to be at least a mile from the next one.

37:27Jordan Harbinger:So Birmingham, Alabama adopted a similar policy the following year. And since then, Oklahoma City, New Orleans, Cleveland, and more than a dozen other cities have passed measures to limit how densely dollar stores can open.

37:41Jessica Wynn:Wow. So not banning them, but spacing them out a little bit.

37:44Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, right. I mean, it's dispersal rules. One per mile, not three per block.

37:49Jessica Wynn:Is that working?

37:50Jordan Harbinger:I mean, it's too early to know how well these policies work. My guess would be probably, you know, if you can't go to one, then that's good news. But the idea is straightforward. Instead of spending public money trying to lure a grocery store into a neighborhood, these cities are trying to stop dollar stores from crowding out grocery stores in the first place.

38:12Jessica Wynn:I see. But dollar stores are popular. They're cheap. They're convenient. Who are you to take that away from people.

38:18Jordan Harbinger:I mean, that's a real concern. You know, dollar stores do provide value on staples. But the argument is that they provide that value at a real cost by preventing something more comprehensive from taking root. So a grocery store would sell the same staples plus fresh food. So the question becomes, should local governments shape that tradeoff?

38:40Jessica Wynn:It's like getting really good, fast, free shipping, but the only things you can buy our cigarettes and vodka.

38:47Jordan Harbinger:Some people would love that. Well, yeah, that's true. Jessica, 10 years ago, totally into it. Oh, my God. I'd be their best customer. Yeah. But there's also the racial dimension to consider. And this is where it gets complicated. So health disparities are real and they're not evenly distributed amongst communities. So black and brown communities are disproportionately affected.

39:12Jessica Wynn:Ah, okay. So the food desert narrative was in part kind of a racial justice narrative. So if we're saying the mechanism is wrong, are we letting structural racism or whatever off the hook?

39:25Jordan Harbinger:No, and this is critical because the disparities are real. The structural causes are real. What the evidence challenges is which mechanism matters most.

39:35Jessica Wynn:So, okay, what do you mean by that?

39:37Jordan Harbinger:So there's research looking at something called food swamps. So they're areas with a high concentration of fast food and convenience stores relative to healthier options. So in a cross-sectional study of more than 3 ,000 U.S. counties with the highest food desert scores, they did have significantly higher rates of obesity-related cancer mortality, but the association was even stronger in counties with the highest food swamp scores, about like 77 % higher rates. That's huge. And those counties were disproportionately in the South and Southeast with higher Black populations.

40:20Jessica Wynn:Before we restructure the entire American food system, let's hear from the companies currently subsidizing this conversation. We'll be right back. Quick break to tell you about a free podcast app worth checking out, available on both iOS and Android. If you're still using one of the built-in podcast apps, it might be time to upgrade to something better like CastBox. It's got a clean look, easy navigation, features that actually make listening easier. More than 100 ,000 of our listeners already subscribed to the show there on CastBox. So a lot of you might already know how good it is. One thing I really care about in a podcast app is strong search.

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41:19Jessica Wynn:This episode is also sponsored by FlyKit. We're getting ready for a trip to Taiwan with both kids. I'm excited, but also bracing myself because we're tired on a normal day, adding a 13-hour flight, a 13-hour time change, and two kids who don't care what time zone we're in. And jet lag is not just annoying. It's an emergency. That's why we're packing FlyKit. It's a kit plus an app that creates a personalized jet lag schedule for your trip, when to take the supplements, when to wear blue light blockers, when to get light, when to caffeinate, when to nap, all to give you the best shot at beating jet lag.

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42:18Jessica Wynn:We've got a subreddit for the show if you want to complain endlessly with other people who also like to complain endlessly and some very kind show fans. It's great discussions going on in there. Me and Gabriel are also in there if you want to discuss the show topics with us. That's the Jordan Harbinger subreddit. Now, back to Skeptical Sunday. Okay, so both limited access to healthy food and heavy exposure to unhealthy food were associated with worse outcomes. That's what I'm understanding here. So the swamp effect is stronger. That's interesting that it's just like you're around it and it's so easy to get.

42:50Jessica Wynn:It's like, all right, fine. This is what we're all eating now.

42:52Jordan Harbinger:Of course. You know, so the research doesn't say food deserts are meaningless. it suggests that focusing only on what a neighborhood lacks may miss something important. What's already there, how concentrated it is, and how constantly people are exposed to it.

43:09Jessica Wynn:So the policy response can't just be, well, at a grocery store, everything's fine now. It's because people aren't going to buy the healthy stuff. And that's the problem.

43:17Jordan Harbinger:Which is what seems so logical to us at the beginning, right? Improving access may still matter, but if a neighborhood is saturated with fast food, convenience stores, targeted promotions, and drive-thrus, adding one supermarket may not be enough to change the overall food environment. So the evidence suggests the concentration of unhealthy food may be the more important mechanism. And that changes the policy response. A food desert solution is to build a grocery store. A food swamp solution is to regulate fast food density, change marketing, and address targeted promotion.

43:57Jessica Wynn:And fast food chains also tend to cluster more heavily in lower income neighborhoods, correct? But isn't that kind of just the market responding to demand? Like nobody forced McDonald's or Taco Bell to open up over there. If people are buying the food, what are policymakers supposed to do about that? I mean, you could regulate fast food. You could tax it. You could ban new restaurants. But where does the logic end? So, OK, we ban Taco Bell. OK, I guess we're all driving further to go to Taco Bell then. Like, if that's what they want, that's what they're going to get.

44:26Jordan Harbinger:Nobody's driving further to go to Taco Bell this week.

44:29Jessica Wynn:Well, maybe not this week with the deadly lettuce explosion, explosive diarrhea lettuce that they've been placing on everything.

44:36Jordan Harbinger:So locked into that story. But anyway, I mean, not necessarily. So the point isn't that fast food restaurants shouldn't exist. It's that demand. It doesn't develop like we're thinking. It doesn't develop in a vacuum. Companies don't survive by selling food nobody buys. But if one neighborhood has twice as many fast food restaurants, they have constant promotions, billboards, and drive-thrus on every major road, that's a different food environment than another neighborhood where healthier options are just as visible and just as convenient. I see. So the relationship goes both ways, right? Businesses respond to demand and the environment shapes which choices are affordable, familiar and practical in the first place.

45:27Jordan Harbinger:If you grow up next to a Taco Bell, you're going to most likely go there while you're growing up. If you grow up next to a farm stand, you're probably going to grow up eating more apples, you know? Yeah.

45:39Jessica Wynn:So you're saying it's not either or. It's not simply exploitation. It's not also not simply a choice.

45:43Jordan Harbinger:It's feedback. Businesses open where they expect strong sales. So once they're there, they make those foods more visible, more convenient and more familiar through sheer repetition. That in turn encourages more sales, which attracts more businesses selling the same kinds of food. And over years, supply and demand start reinforcing each other.

46:06Jessica Wynn:So it's less about blaming Taco Bell and more about recognizing that the environment itself nudges behavior.

46:13Jordan Harbinger:Nobody's arguing people lose free will when they drive past a Burger King. The point is that environments influence behavior. The research finds worse health outcomes in neighborhoods where fast food is much more common than healthier options, not because one burger changes your life, but because those cues and choices add up over time.

46:35Jessica Wynn:OK, that makes a lot more sense than just saying fast food causes obesity and you have no choice but to eat a ton of it. So sorry.

46:42Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, and that's one reason researchers have shifted from talking about food deserts to food swamps. So the evidence suggests the concentration of unhealthy choices may matter more than simply the absence of a grocery store.

46:56Jessica Wynn:And there's also a measurement issue here, right? The definition of what counts is like a healthy food store is built around a USDA framework that I'm not super confident is going to be complete, right? It could be missing some things. Actually, do you know anything about this? Because I feel like that's also always flexible, right? It must sell produce, so they keep an onion on the counter and they're like, here's your Cheetos. I don't know.

47:16Jordan Harbinger:I mean, well, the standard definition looks for large supermarkets aligned with USDA guidelines, which they change too, and they're not perfect. But a Vietnamese fish market with fresh veggies, a Mexican taco stand with fresh meat and produce, or a West African grocery carrying plantains and fermented fish and greens, These offer fresh, nutritious food and still might not qualify under the official definition, even though they provide real, nutritious, culturally appropriate food.

47:51Jessica Wynn:So a neighborhood could be counted as a food desert while actually having rich, healthy food options that the government maybe doesn't see because they're measuring with the wrong ruler. Exactly. Because it doesn't look like whole foods.

48:01Jordan Harbinger:And if your map ignores farm stands, farmers markets, and other local food sources people actually rely on, it's going to miss parts of the real food environment. And those blind spots aren't culturally neutral. So now we've got misdiagnosis, mismeasurement, and misdirected policy.

48:20Jessica Wynn:That is a tough combo.

48:22Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, it is. And the result is communities getting these ribbon cuttings instead of solutions that actually make an impact.

48:30Jessica Wynn:What would make a real difference here? Because now we just subsidize the problem and that's it.

48:36Jordan Harbinger:Yeah. So in 2024, the federal government spent about$9.3 billion on commodity crop subsidies. Corn alone accounted for about$3 billion, roughly a third of the total. Soybeans were next at$1.9 billion, followed by cotton, wheat and rice.

48:57Jessica Wynn:And what do those crops become?

48:58Jordan Harbinger:I mean, you know, we all pretty much know corn becomes high fructose corn syrup or livestock feed, cornstarch, corn oil and ethanol. Soybeans become soybean oil, which is another major ingredient in processed and ultra processed foods and livestock feed. And the most heavily subsidized crops in America are the raw ingredients for ultra processed junk food and cheap meat.

49:25Jessica Wynn:And what happens to the prices of this?

49:28Jordan Harbinger:From the mid-1980s through the 2010s, the real price of fresh fruits and vegetables rose substantially, while the real prices of sugar-sweetened beverages and other processed food ingredients generally fell. So at the exact same time we're building grocery stores to improve diets.

49:48Jessica Wynn:Yeah. Oof. We were making unhealthy food cheaper the whole time with federal policy. That is—that's terrible. Oh, my gosh.

49:57Jordan Harbinger:Yeah. And fruits and vegetables receive less than 10 percent of farm subsidies. Wow. What? Why? I know. The crops that become junk food receive most of it. So we've engineered a system where the unhealthy choice is often the affordable one, then spend more money trying to fix the consequences through programs aimed at the resulting health crisis.

50:20Jessica Wynn:This is interesting because I went to Norway. I've been to a bunch of European countries and stuff like that. Germany, France, Italy, whatever. And I was young, so I would go to McDonald's because I'm like, I don't need to eat at a fancy restaurant, but I'm hungry right now and I'm getting what I know because I'm in high school or college. And it's freaking expensive over there, man. Norway, everything is expensive, but I remember going to McDonald's and I spent like$28 on the big value meal. It wasn't called a value meal there, but it was like the Big Mac thing. And I remember going at the checkout, I go, what?

50:54Jessica Wynn:Oh my God. And the checkout girl goes, oh yeah, you're used to American prices, huh? And I was like, yeah, I can't believe it. She's like, everything here is expensive, but your fast food is so cheap. I guess she had gone to visit the United States with her cousin or friend or something. I forget the story that the woman working at McDonald's. And she was like, I couldn't believe that this meal was like$6 in America. I just couldn't believe it. And I thought, how is this possible? But it never occurred to me that, oh yeah, the raw ingredients are basically free because they're subsidized into oblivion in the United States.

51:26Jessica Wynn:And they have to pay real prices for everything over there, theoretically. Right. And they have to import a bunch of stuff, too, probably.

51:33Jordan Harbinger:Yeah. I mean, you've probably seen all the the reels and things of people coming from overseas for the World Cup, just amazed at what's going on with our food supply and costs and choices.

51:46Jessica Wynn:I have seen that. I've seen a lot of reels also where they're asking them, like, do you think Americans could handle the heat wave that's going on in the UK right now? And they're like, no way, no way. The Americans could never handle it. And then the guy's like, do you realize that it's 10 degrees to 20 degrees hotter in America right now and every year than it is right here? Because it's like 84 in London and everyone's like, oh my God, it's so hot. And it's like, yeah, I'm in Austin, Texas right now and it's 104. Right.

52:14Jordan Harbinger:But they don't have air conditioning like we do either. They don't. Or even in the Pacific Northwest here, Seattle, the air conditioning business is booming because nobody used to have it.

52:25Jessica Wynn:Yeah, global warming. Good for the HVAC guys, I guess. Yeah, right. So let me make sure I understand this. The federal government spends billions of dollars making junk food cheaper. Then it spends millions trying to undo the consequences by building grocery stores in neighborhoods where junk food is still the cheaper option. So a pint of blueberries costs more than a family-sized bag of purple Takis or whatever. I don't even know what those are. I've seen them. And then we're surprised that people buy the purple Takis. That's not a nutrition policy. This is an administrative nervous breakdown that failed Econ 101.

52:59Jordan Harbinger:Right, exactly. And what makes it worse is that the food desert solution, it's politically easy. You fund a supermarket. You get a ribbon cutting, a press conference, a grateful mayor. maybe the first lady. Reforming the farm bill means taking on some of the most powerful agricultural lobbying interests in Washington. Corn, soybean, and sugar producers, the commodity crop associations, the people who've been shaping agricultural policy for generations. They don't lose. And then the general public, who doesn't take this deep dive into research like we are just thinks, oh, food desert, build a store.

53:41Jordan Harbinger:That's the solution, you know?

53:42Jessica Wynn:Sure. Oh, they can't drive to the Whole Foods, so get them one that's closer. Yeah. Problem solved. So we do the easy visible thing that doesn't even work rather than the hard and visible thing that might actually make a dent in the problem.

53:54Jordan Harbinger:I mean, that seems to be the pattern of a lot of public health policy, unfortunately.

53:59Jessica Wynn:Totally. So if building grocery stores is not the answer, what is the answer? What actually works?

54:04Jordan Harbinger:Price. That's the clearest answer. Studies found that subsidizing healthy foods for low-income households specifically, like making fruits and vegetables financially competitive with junk food, could close the nutrition gap entirely. Their estimate was about$11 billion a year, roughly 15 % of the SNAP budget at the time.

54:28Jessica Wynn:SNAP is, that's food assistance in the United States. Can you define SNAP for anyone listening who might not know? I don't even, I just call it food stamps. Is that even a thing anymore? Probably not.

54:37Jordan Harbinger:It is food stamps. It's just we don't use the physical stamps anymore because, you know, tech took over. So SNAP is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program. But yes, essentially it's food stamps. The USDA says federal SNAP spending was about$99.8 billion in the 2024 fiscal year. So we're talking about a meaningful number here, but not some unimaginable number, especially compared with years of spending on place-based retail strategies that produced tiny effects.

55:12Jessica Wynn:That is not a hard calculation.

55:14Jordan Harbinger:It's not. And there's another intervention here that I think is genuinely promising. Online grocery purchasing with Snap. So instead of building a store and hoping the people who face the biggest mobility barriers can get to it, you let them use benefits for pickup or delivery. The SNAP benefits traditionally could only be used at physical stores. The USDA has recently allowed online SNAP purchasing to expand nationally. And both DoorDash and Instacart now support SNAP and EBT purchases with participating retailers. This targets the mobility constrained, the car free and low income households who face the most real geographic barriers.

56:01Jordan Harbinger:So instead of hoping they will come to the new store, you can bring the groceries to them.

56:05Jessica Wynn:OK, but online grocery shopping isn't some futuristic government innovation. My neighbors are all using Instacart that my kids could use DoorDash. I don't let them, but they could. And people use Uber Eats. Grocery delivery already exists. Target comes over a bunch of times when my wife isn't like, I need to go to Target. And I'm like, have them drop it off. And she's like, I need to leave the house and go to Target for one hour. And I'm like, ah, OK, got it. But why isn't that just the answer? Does that not exist everywhere? Am I just living in some sort of weird delivery bubble?

56:38Jordan Harbinger:No, definitely not. But access is not the same thing as affordability. So one Brookings institution study looked at grocery delivery in 2021 and found that 93 % of Americans, including about 90 % of people living in these USDA-defined food deserts, had access to fresh groceries or prepared food through at least one of four major delivery platforms, Amazon Fresh, Instacart, Uber Eats, or Walmart. And that's actually a higher share than households with broadband And internet, which is only about 86%. So yes, the digital reach for delivery is real.

57:18Jessica Wynn:Wait, more people could get groceries delivered than had internet to order them?

57:23Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, right. Now delivery markets have changed since 2021, with some areas expanding and others contracting. So those exact numbers have almost certainly shifted. But the broader point still holds. for many Americans, physical proximity to a grocery store is no longer the only way to access one.

57:44Jessica Wynn:I see. OK, so problem solved by Silicon Valley and apps. Pat's cell phone back, I guess. I don't know.

57:49Jordan Harbinger:I mean, not quite, but here's where it gets complicated, of course. Yes, the delivery zone coverage is extraordinary. DoorDash alone says it reaches over 11 million people living in USDA defined food deserts. And then you look at what it actually costs and see a price problem. Here it comes. Yeah. So Instacart says directly on its help pages that some retailers charge higher item prices on the platform than they do in stores. What I've read, that seems to me to mean every store charges higher. And then you have the fees we've all seen on these apps. And that applies on top of the higher prices.

58:30Jordan Harbinger:So SNAP can cover eligible food items, but it does not cover delivery fees, service fees, or tips, which means a SNAP recipient using delivery is actually spending their food budget on food and spending their limited cash on fees. So when researchers and journalists have done side-by-side comparisons of the same grocery cart bought in-store versus ordered through Instacart, the total comes out to roughly 35 to 50 percent more expensive all in.

59:01Jessica Wynn:So the groceries are covered, but the logistics still aren't. And a$30 grocery run turns into 50 bucks, which is probably the same as an Uber or roundtrip public transit to the store anyway.

59:12Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, I mean, it's probably cheaper. And that all matters because those logistics costs hit low income households hardest.

59:20Jessica Wynn:Sure, of course. Yeah.

59:21Jordan Harbinger:A delivery surcharge is annoying if you're affluent.

59:25Jessica Wynn:Yeah, if I notice it, I get angry. That's why I just have gen order.

59:28Jordan Harbinger:And you might tip the driver a little less because you're paying all these fees, but it doesn't.

59:32Jessica Wynn:Yeah.

59:32Jordan Harbinger:It's prohibitive if you are living paycheck to paycheck. So the people with the strongest reason to use delivery are the least able to absorb the extra cost.

59:43Jessica Wynn:So what we really need is a federally subsidized dash pass. Is that a thing?

59:48Jordan Harbinger:Yeah. I mean, that's a good idea. It's not exactly a thing. But some SNAP recipients can get discounted memberships through certain delivery services. But there isn't some universally federal-funded dash pass. And even with those programs, delivery fees and markups, there's still a barrier.

1:00:07Jessica Wynn:Yeah, that's not really solving the problem. It's just changing who gets charged for it.

1:00:11Jordan Harbinger:Right. And to be fair, the platforms are not completely indifferent to this. DoorDash does have a program called Project Dash where it partners with food banks. and charitable organizations to deliver food to food insecure households at no cost. And since launching in 2018, they've powered more than 5 million deliveries and more than 100 million meals. They did a lot of really good work during the pandemic. Instacart offers a discounted Instacart Plus membership for eligible Snap users. So when the federal government briefly threatened to freeze Snap payments in late 2025, DoorDash and Instacart both stepped up with emergency fee waivers and discounts for Snap users.

1:00:55Jordan Harbinger:But those are patches. They're not a structural fix.

1:00:59Jessica Wynn:Of course, those are charitable gestures, but charity from big tech companies is not a sustainable policy.

1:01:05Jordan Harbinger:Of course not. And there's another issue coming fast behind this one. If more low-income households are getting groceries through delivery apps, then the app itself becomes part of the food environment. So DoorDash's own data shows that lower income consumers use the platform at similar rates to wealthier ones. What does the algorithm show you first when you open the app? What gets promoted on the home screen in a low income zip code versus a wealthier one? You know, are the sponsored products chips and soda or produce? What gets discounted? You know, is it buy one, get one free candy or is it fresh fruit?

1:01:44Jordan Harbinger:And it's just like any other algorithm. them. It's based off if you're only door dashing fast food, it's always going to promote fast food,

1:01:53Jessica Wynn:not, you know, produce at the market. I'm looking at mine right now and it's basically just stuff I've recently ordered. And then it's like clearly targeting me for Asian food because we order a bunch of that for my kids. So it's like, oh, you haven't tried this udon place. You haven't tried this place. And then if you scroll a little further, the constant advertisers are 7-Eleven and McDonald's and Burger King and stuff like that. And then, yeah, there's a lot of like, hey, did you forget? And it's like, order some Twizzlers. But I think everyone probably gets that because I've never DoorDash anything like that in my life.

1:02:27Jessica Wynn:But they're the ones who have these huge chains are the ones that have a budget to advertise nationally on DoorDash.

1:02:33Jordan Harbinger:Think about that. 7-Eleven is already more expensive than a regular grocery store. So then all those fees on top of it. I mean, they're making bank, I bet.

1:02:41Jessica Wynn:So we basically taught the food swamp how to use an algorithm. That's not good.

1:02:45Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, that's exactly the concern. We may be moving from a physical food swamp to a digital one. You can survive on dollar store food.

1:02:53Jessica Wynn:You just can't live that long. Here are some healthier financial decisions. We'll be right back.

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1:04:06Jessica Wynn:Please consider supporting those who support the show. Now for the rest of Skeptical Sunday. So the old problem was that the store was too far away. Then it turns into the store that comes to you, but only if you can afford the fees. And now it might be that the store comes to you, charges you extra, and the algorithm may be nudging you towards junk and crap food the whole time. That's worse, actually.

1:04:27Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, it is. It's hard to design policy for a world that didn't exist 10 minutes ago, though, you know.

1:04:34Jessica Wynn:But all of this kind of assumes people can even get online broadband. Is that universal now? I remember my cousin who lived up north in Michigan didn't get it. He took him like 20 extra years to get Internet. That wasn't dial-up.

1:04:45Jordan Harbinger:I think it's still about 15 percent of the United States doesn't have broadband, which is shocking. I mean, it sounds small maybe at the surface, but that's a shockingly large amount of people who don't have.

1:04:56Jessica Wynn:But how big of a problem is that? Because don't most people then have smartphones in those areas? So, yeah, they can't play Call of Duty at a reasonable speed on Xbox. but like their phone still works for internet and ordering, right?

1:05:07Jordan Harbinger:Of course, but it also changes every day. I don't know, actually. I don't know what the connection is between crummy Wi-Fi service and broadband and your ability to get groceries delivered. I'm not really sure if there's any research on that whole connection. But, you know, it's the last mile problem of the last mile solution. We've dramatically expanded delivery coverage, but internet access hasn't always kept up the pace in places. So while 93 % of Americans have delivery coverage, like I said, I think only around 86 % have really good broadband and it's significantly lower in certain low income urban and rural communities.

1:05:53Jordan Harbinger:So you can live in a food desert where Instacart delivers, but 25 percent of households might not reliably access the app.

1:06:02Jessica Wynn:OK, so but still delivery works for the people who can access it, a smartphone, reliable Internet, a payment method and enough extra cash to absorb the fees.

1:06:11Jordan Harbinger:Right. But take away just one of those and the solution becomes theoretical. You know, it's kind of a gated solution.

1:06:17Jessica Wynn:Yeah. OK. All right. So what about the other political instinct here, which is just to restrict what people can buy with snap? You can. Maybe you can't buy soda and junk food. Problem solved. And I know people get really angry about that. But like, OK, how else are we supposed to nudge behavior? We don't want kids smoking. So we make it illegal for them to buy the cigarettes.

1:06:38Jordan Harbinger:Right. And a lot of people look at it the same way because it does seem like it's almost a compassionate kind of logic, right? But the evidence there is very mixed. Some studies show modest improvements. Others show substitution. People just shift how they spend and overall diet doesn't improve much. there are the trade-offs like stigma, administrative complexity, and the basic question of whether restricting choices works if you haven't changed the underlying drivers of those choices. I don't know.

1:07:13Jessica Wynn:I'm kind of torn on this one. On the one hand, it feels really, it does feel paternalistic to tell adults what they're allowed to eat. And on the other hand, I don't know, man, if taxpayers are funding a nutrition program, isn't it reasonable to expect that the money goes towards nutritious food. I mean, I don't, maybe I care less about what adults eat, but like it's child abuse, what you're feeding your kids at this point. You know, maybe I don't let you buy that with my tax dollars. I don't know. We already limit SNAP to food purchases, right? You can't buy smokes and stuff with SNAP. So why not limit it to healthier food?

1:07:43Jessica Wynn:I understand why people hear that and think, yeah, what's the problem? Come on, man.

1:07:48Jordan Harbinger:But it assumes the problem is the shopping cart.

1:07:51Jessica Wynn:Okay, well, forget politics for a second. Grant, if SNAP recipients could only buy healthier foods, would that even improve diets or is that not also going to work?

1:08:00Jordan Harbinger:It wouldn't improve diets very much. According to the evidence, the shopping cart is the end of the story, not the beginning. So if unhealthy food is still the cheapest option, it's the easiest option, the most heavily marketed option and the most familiar option, restricting a handful of products doesn't change the forces that got people there in the first place. Plus, you're telling people what not to buy while leaving everything that made them want to buy it in the first place intact.

1:08:32Jessica Wynn:Okay, but we got to start somewhere. So what does shake things up on something like this?

1:08:38Jordan Harbinger:It really all comes down to education and education done well. Not generic nutrition advice, but culturally competent programs that work without people actually eat. So you don't tell someone to abandon their food. You help them adjust it, ingredients, methods, substitutions. You teach someone why olive oil is different from corn oil. Some people don't understand the difference of when they're looking at the shelf of what all that is. And then you show them how to make the food they already love slightly healthier. You make it further than any supermarket ever could because knowledge shapes preference over time.

1:09:19Jordan Harbinger:And preference is the thing the supermarket never touched.

1:09:22Jessica Wynn:What about community input here? Because one thing that keeps coming up is that maybe people didn't actually want the solution we built for them.

1:09:29Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, I mean, that's a big blind spot. Some communities have pushed back on chain supermarkets, not because they oppose healthy food, but because of what those stores bring with them. So profits leave the neighborhood. Local businesses get displaced. The store stocks national brands instead of the food people actually prepare locally. Meanwhile, the local bodega, imperfect as it is, knows the community. They often extend credit. They stock culturally relevant foods. That matters, and it matters a lot. This all reframed something like the Pittsburgh store closing. Maybe it wasn't just a failed intervention.

1:10:08Jordan Harbinger:Maybe it was feedback.

1:10:10Jessica Wynn:Right. The community was saying, this isn't what we need. We never asked for this. It's a familiar pattern with policy, right? The problem is diagnosed by people far outside the environment in the community, and they prescribe the solution, and then they act all surprised when people don't use it, even though the community was never part of the conversation. I feel like we have this conversation about mass transit and stuff, too. It's like, oh, we need more buses. We need more trains. And then they build a subway in L.A. And people are like, we got a subway in L.A.? Because no one uses it. It's like so clean you could eat off the floor because it's had three passengers in the past three days.

1:10:43Jessica Wynn:Right, exactly. Yeah, isn't actress slash comedian Tiffany Haddish, isn't she kind of a champion for building grocery stores where she grew up so she kind of gets what the problem is?

1:10:52Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, she is. And that's actually just a terrific example of someone who seems to intuitively understand what all this research is saying. So her loyalty to Compton led her project called Diaspora Groceries. And it's not just a grocery store. She wants it to become a community hub in South Los Angeles. She's talked about cooking classes because, as she points out, Home Depot teaches people how to use power tools, but grocery stores don't teach people how to use healthy food. She wants financial literacy classes attached to the store, offer housing advice, and then just have shelves stocked with products from local and minority-owned businesses so more of the money stays in the neighborhood.

1:11:39Jordan Harbinger:You know, it's a much broader vision than simply saying, here's a supermarket.

1:11:44Jessica Wynn:That's interesting because it sounds like she's solving more than a food problem.

1:11:48Jordan Harbinger:She is. She's trying to build community education and economic opportunity alongside access to healthy food. Whether her project succeeds or not, you know, say whatever you want about her, what she's doing, it's much closer to where the evidence points than the old idea that you can just drop a grocery store into a neighborhood and everyone's diet will change for the better.

1:12:13Jessica Wynn:Yeah, that's cool. She's trying to build the conditions that make a grocery store matter in the first place.

1:12:18Jordan Harbinger:Another thing policymakers get wrong is time. Most of the evidence we've talked about looks at outcomes over a few months or a few years. But there's a researcher named Stefan Hutt who used 11 years of data plus a retrospective survey going back several decades. And he found something remarkable. People who move into healthier food environments do change their behavior, but it takes decades. We're talking 30 to 40 years.

1:12:48Jessica Wynn:Great. Okay, well, womp womp. That actually makes a ton of sense, though. I mean, we know environments can nudge behavior over time. Cigarette smoking did not collapse overnight. It took decades of changing prices and advertising. and social norms and availability before the culture really shifted. And that still hasn't even happened everywhere. Right. Right. And it's a bit like we've known smoking was bad for you since the end of World War II or something. I mean, come on, man. So, yeah, that's kind of bad news. Like, hey, nutrition, education. Yeah. OK, tell your grandkids not to eat that then.

1:13:23Jessica Wynn:Oh, that's awful.

1:13:24Jordan Harbinger:Right. Well, we just know culture changes slowly. Habits form slowly. If you grow up in a neighborhood where buying fresh food is normal, expected, and easy, that may become part of how you eat as an adult. But easy isn't just about distance. Like we said, it's also about time. You know, if you're working those rotating shifts and two jobs or you work overnight hours, the grocery store might be closed when you're off work while the gas station, waffle house, or drive-thru is still open. So there's short-term evidence says simply opening a supermarket doesn't meaningfully change diets. But over a generation, as those environments and routines change, it's possible we're measuring just too early to see the full effect.

1:14:13Jessica Wynn:So we might be right that supermarkets don't change behavior in the short run, but then in the long run they might actually change behavior?

1:14:19Jordan Harbinger:It's so complicated. The short and medium term evidence says that access alone doesn't meaningfully change diets. But long term, it might be. It's plausible. But we just don't have definitive answers yet, which is a problem because policy runs on election cycles. So a lot of these programs have four years to show results. And that might be the single biggest driver of bad public health policy in American history. The mismatch between the pace of political timelines and the pace of social and biological change.

1:14:56Jessica Wynn:But it could take 30 years to see the changes. Democracy is not optimized for slow moving problems, right? What can we say to somebody who cares deeply about food justice and sees that these solutions don't work?

1:15:09Jordan Harbinger:You were right about the problem. You were right that it's structural, that it's unjust, that it demands a response. What the evidence challenges is not the diagnosis, it's the prescription. So the system is still driving poor health through subsidies that make junk food artificially cheap, through fast food saturation, through targeted marketing, through retail environments that steer people's behavior, and through business models that just block better options like the dollar stores.

1:15:40Jessica Wynn:I see. So those are the levers, but they seem harder to pull and they don't come with fancy ribbon cuttings. You don't get a plaque for that.

1:15:48Jordan Harbinger:Right, but they're the ones that matter.

1:15:49Jessica Wynn:So if you could change one thing tomorrow based on all your research here, what would it be?

1:15:54Jordan Harbinger:Well, I think I would change a couple of things if I could. So first, restructure the farm bill and reform agricultural subsidies. So healthy food is the cheap option, not the expensive one. Second, expand and support delivery access in a way that actually works for low-income households, not just theoretically, but financially. And third, invest in community-driven, culturally grounded nutrition programs and give communities real authority over what gets built in their neighborhoods. Stop making these decisions in D.C. and make them with the people in the community.

1:16:32Jessica Wynn:And not one of those involves building a supermarket, and that's coming from somebody who used to think building supermarkets was the solution. Okay.

1:16:39Jordan Harbinger:Yeah, this data changed my mind, and it should change our policy.

1:16:42Jessica Wynn:I don't know about you, but I'm going to think a lot harder the next time somebody says, oh, just build a grocery store there, or there's a food desert over here. It turns out that changing what people eat is a heck of a lot more complicated than changing where they shop. Thanks, Jess. Those who are hungry for knowledge on this topic should find themselves quite full at this point. And thank you all for listening. Topic suggestions for future episodes of Skeptical Sunday to me, Jordan at JordanHarbinger.com. Advertisers, deals, discounts, ways to support the show, all at JordanHarbinger.com slash deals.

1:17:13Jessica Wynn:I'm at JordanHarbinger on Twitter and Instagram. You can also connect with me on LinkedIn. Jessica is on her sub stacks between the lines and where shadows linger. We'll link to those in the show notes. Her work is also on Instagram at nevermetjessicas, plural. And this show is created in association with Podcast One. My team is Jen Harbinger, Jace Sanderson, Tata Sidlowskis, Robert Fogarty, Ian Baird, Gabriel Mizrahi. And our advice and opinions, they're our own. And yeah, I'm a lawyer, but I'm not your lawyer. Also, we try to get all this stuff as right as we can. Not everything is gospel, even if it is fact checked.

1:17:45Jessica Wynn:So do consult a qualified professional before applying anything you hear on the show, especially if it's about your health and well-being. Remember, we rise by lifting others. Share the show with those you love. If you found the episode useful, please share it with somebody else who could use a good dose of the skepticism and knowledge we doled out today. In the meantime, I hope you apply what you hear on the show so you can live what you learn. And we'll see you next time. You'd never obey a stranger who called you and told you to commit a crime, right? Javier Leyva uncovers how ordinary, intelligent people were manipulated by fake authority into doing the unthinkable and why the certainty that you'd never fall for it could make you the perfect target.

1:18:22Jessica Wynn:This is the con. Because I interview a lot of con artists. What they do is they overwhelm you. They raise your sense of urgency, which now you're bypassing all your common sense. Things that would normally make sense to us, we're not even thinking about that, right? Because we're like in a state of alarm. We're hardwired to trust people. People obey because we're taught to respect authority. I found case after case of people impersonating ICE agents and doing all kinds of stuff. not just rape or violent crime, extortion, like all kinds of stuff. And I was like, you know what? You could go to a Bass Pro shop and buy your ICE uniform, right?

1:19:04Jessica Wynn:And you could pull off whatever you want because people respect authority. People are afraid of authority and they will most likely do what you say. And you might fall for it. This is just the tip of the iceberg, man. When somebody causes a sense of urgency and you bypass your logic, just slow it down, pause it, give yourself some time to think. Because when you're acting out of fear, you're making bad decisions. And I think just doing that will save you a lot of grief. This stuff is insane and is probably the most extreme examples. But I think that just have that in the back of your mind that some people are looking to take advantage of you and just have a healthy dose of skepticism.

1:19:48Jessica Wynn:Find out how to recognize the trap before your judgment and your life unravels on episode 1330 of The Jordan Harbinger Show.

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