Use Prediction Markets to Plan Your 2027 Content | Bathroom Break #127

0:07Jay:Welcome to a new special series called The Bathroom Break. That extra 10 minutes, you either have to listen to marketing tips or use the bathroom or both. But I don't recommend both, but that's your choice. This collab is going to be super fun. We have Daniel Murray from the Marketing Millennials and me, Jay Schwetelson, from the Do This Not That podcast and subjectline.com. each episode in the series, we are going to go over quick tips about different marketing topics. And if you want to be in the bathroom, fine, just don't tell us about it. Thanks for checking it out. We are back with another bathroom break.

0:42Jay:I'm here with the Jay Schwedelson Do This Not That podcast. And we're going to have a fun episode today. We might predict some stuff today. Jay actually was a fortune teller at Unbound a couple weeks ago, so he did that. But I want to ask you a specific question because this is going around the internet. If someone shows up to a job interview with you with an iced coffee, do you not hire them because they brought an iced coffee to your interview? I just saw this, but this whole idea that you can't show up to an interview with an iced coffee or that you're looking like you're too confident or too you're him, you're her, you're whatever.

1:26I think that's ridiculous. Like, it's a conversation starter. And I don't know, everyone's like, leave it in your car. Don't do that. What's wrong with people? Be a human. What do you think?

1:39Jay:I think that if they came on time and they picked up a coffee, that means they left early. They were like ready to go. And if it helps them in the interview, who cares? I don't get that. I think it's a flex for a marketer to bring a coffee because that's definitely a conversation starter. I will tell you the craziest thing having had a company for over 28 years now. Okay. You'll be amazed. And I've interviewed, I don't know, thousands of people. The number of people that either show up late. Okay. Show up looking totally unprofessional in what they're wearing or completely ghost the interview.

2:16Like they begged for the interview, then completely ghost it. I would say easily 50 % of all the interviews I've ever done late, inappropriately dressed or ghosted.

2:27Jay:What is it? What's a drink that you wouldn't hire someone? If someone came in with what drink would they not be hired? Like a prime energy drink? Like a big, you know, like, could you imagine? Like I wouldn't even mind like a Celsius or whatever. But if you showed up with, or alcohol, like, you know, grabbing a beer, that wouldn't go well. Why, is there any other one that's like a flag for you? No, I just was wondering, like, is there any drink that someone just shows up with that type of drink? You're just like, uh, I don't know if I can hire you. And you can't show up with food. Don't show up with food.

3:01That's disgusting. That is disgusting. You want to hear a funny story that did happen? This is, now we're going to get off topic, but whatever. So it was like a second interview or something. We interviewed this woman. This is, I guess, I don't even know. And she gave us a copy of her diploma, okay? I don't know why. I guess we were like about to hire her or whatever. And then she left. I came back for a second interview. And then the team like checks out, you know, is the person, did they really graduate from that college, whatever? And they didn't. They lied. They completely made it up. The diploma was not real, okay?

3:34So we come back. I don't know why I came in there with the HR person. and they had the folder with the diploma. And the HR person says, I'm so sorry. I don't even know why we let her come back. We were like, you didn't really graduate from here. This isn't real. And the woman lunged across the table and trying to get a copy of the diploma and attacked the HR person. And she wouldn't leave until we gave her the copy. We didn't give her the copy. We had to call the police. It was the weirdest experience.

4:03Jay:Your mistake is having that person back into the office. I know. I don't know what we were doing. Okay. Well, enough of nonsense. Let's get into the episode. I want to ask you, okay, so you had a topic that you've been talking about for a little bit that a lot of people want to talk about, about predictive marketing, how to be more predictive instead of reactive. So what are some tactics that people could do today to be not reactive with their marketing and actually predict what they're going to do? Yeah. So it's so interesting to me. we're all about data. Everyone's always trying to find data.

4:38And marketers, whether you're a B2B marketer, nonprofit, consumer, we are sleeping on one of the greatest data sets in the history of humanity, which is prediction markets. And if you're not familiar with them or you're like, oh, isn't that people that bet on weird stuff? That's ridiculous. So there's two primary ones. One's called CalShe, and the other one's called Polymarket. Now, if you're sort of a degenerate, no offense to you if you bet on there all the time, but if you're sort of a degenerate, and you can go on these prediction markets and you can literally bet on anything. You can go and bet right now on what Carly Rae Japson, the girl who made Call Me Maybe's new album sales are gonna be in the first week.

5:14That's a legit thing that you could bet on right now. If that's what you're doing with your time, you're weird. But the point of the matter is there are predictions being made and people interacting with it, thousands and thousands, if not millions of people interacting with these predictions on every topic. So from a marketing perspective, if you go on Chachupiti or Claude or Gemini or whatever, and you use a prompt that says something along the lines of, search Polymarket and Calci right now for my audience. And then you put in your audience, you know, I'm targeting HR directors, small business owners, healthcare industry, whatever.

5:47And then you say something like, find five active, non-political, non-sports markets that could signal what my audience will care about in the next three to 12 months. And then based on what it finds, ask it to develop content ideas that you could publish now about what's gonna happen. It will blow your mind what predictions are out there that people, the reason it matters is it's like this, it's a giant survey about any topic that it's impossible to get this data. And it's living there right now. Prediction markets are gold for marketers. How do you feel about that?

6:21Jay:I think it's a great idea. And I also think talking about it now is probably a great, even better, because this is like the time to create content that's very predictive, very forward thinking, very next year. So this is a great way to create content, like six predictions in X market, or we think this market's going to head this way. And then it's backed by data. It's not like your total opinion. in, there's actually data behind it and you can link out to the data and say there's data behind it, which is more, people believe data and stats way more usually. So it can mix thought leadership with data backed things that are happening in the world, which I think is very good.

7:05Jay:So the content for forward thinking in next year is hot right now. So if you're creating it, use this prompt to start creating content for next year or start creating those 20, 27 pieces. And I would also add the reason that the prediction market data is more valuable than survey data that you might do is because survey data is, OK, I'll take a survey. But the prediction market are only people that are putting their money behind the prediction, right? So they're actually betting their real money based on what they think is going to happen. And if you look at the accuracy of these prediction markets predictions, like on Cal, she and on poly market, whether it's about, you know, what's going to happen politically, what's going to happen in the financial markets, what's going to happen in every industry.

7:50It is wildly accurate as it ties to the actual outcomes. Because when people are putting their money on something, that's when they really think it through. So I think as a marketer, we are sleeping on prediction markets and using it for our own marketing.

8:04Jay:I think you also bring up a good point in marketing in general that like surveys are following emotions and people when they do surveys, they try to give the best answer, not always the right answer. In general, just always follow the market and the money in marketing. Like go look at where people actually are putting money down and putting, like if you go into a store, for example, and watch someone shop versus like look what they put in the survey, it's usually something different than what they said in that survey. So follow the money always when you're doing marketing things. Yeah, and I would add the last piece of this.

8:42Don't try to go to CalShe and Polymarket yourself and find the trends or whatever. It's impossible. It's just impossible to navigate those tools. You really need to use an AI tool like Gemini or Claude or ChatGPT and then use a prompt, tell the audience you want to go after, ask it for content ideas, and tell it to remove political or sports stuff because that's a lot of what's on there. Don't try to find it yourself. I've tried. It is, you'll find the weirdest thing. You'll find like a cricket match in some country you never heard of that you could bet on, but you won't find what it is that you're looking for.

9:16By the way, fast forward, I have no idea. You're like, you grew up in Africa. Are you like a big cricket fan?

9:22Jay:I don't know why I'm asking you that. I'll give you a fun fact about that. My grandpa used to be the president of South African cricket back in the day. That is the most random thing I've ever heard anybody say. Yeah, like in the 80s. He used to be basically the commissioner of South African cricket for like five or six years. Let me ask you a question. I have no reference for how big of a deal that is. It's pretty big. Like, it's, like, the second biggest sport in South Africa, and it's a worldwide sport, so it's a pretty big deal in South Africa, at least. Have you ever played cricket? Yeah, I'll show you a picture after this.

10:04Jay:But I didn't play, like, I grew up there until seven, so I only, like, started playing it and then didn't play anymore. Do you watch it on TV? Well, my grandpa used to. So in cricket, there's, like, two types of things. this is test cricket, which is like five day matches. And then there's like super fast cricket. And my grandpa would sit at the TV like for five days straight and watch every single like ball thrown, which is, um, uh, or bold if you want to talk about cricket terms. And it's the most insane thing, but the faster cricket is actually fun to watch. So if you're a cricket person. Well, I want you to be excited.

10:41This is literally the longest conversation I've ever had about cricket in my life. And I'm going to go as far as say, This is the, it won't happen. There won't be another one that's longer. So I hope you're excited that you're here for that.

10:50Jay:Oh, yeah. No, I'm so excited. I got your first introduction to cricket. You probably were like searching college and you're like, cricket? What is cricket? No, I turn it on the TV. I'm sitting there with my wife. She goes, do you know the rules? I go, the rules? I have no idea what I'm looking at. Well, you know, in like India and Pakistan, it's like a religion there. It's like they stopped working to watch India cricket play. Would you eat a cricket? No. I think I have. I'm not sure. They used to sell for a while. They had like for protein, like those like cricket stuff. And then I've never seen it.

11:28They had like a trend back in like 10 years ago. Well, look at all the things that we've covered on today's episode. Another phenomenal episode. And get excited. Bathroom break's going to get bigger soon. We have some big announcements coming up. So get excited. as excited as you can be about bathroom break. And so until the next one, appreciate you.

11:47Jay:And also send us topics that you want to us to cover in the bathroom break in the future. We want to start covering things you want to listen to. Not a lot of our ridiculousness we put in here. So thank you so much. Later on. Daniel, come on, man. I got to get back to work. Get out of there. While he's still in there, this is Jay. Check out my podcast. Do this, It's not that for marketers. Each week we share really quick tips on stuff that can improve your marketing and hope you give it a try. Oh, here's Daniel. He's finally out. Back from my bathroom break. This is Daniel. Go follow the Mark and Malay podcast, but also tune into this series.

12:26Jay:It's once a week, the bathroom break. We talk about marketing tips that we just spew out and it could be anything from email, subject line to any marketing tips in the world. We'll talk about it. Just give us a shout on LinkedIn and tell us what you want to hear. Peace out. Later.