In short
The News Agents: Bonus Episode Summary - Is This Starmer's Toughest Conference Yet?
Podcast Overview Hosts: Emily Maitlis, Jon Sopel, Lewis Goodall Podcast Genre: Daily news, Analysis, Political Discussion Release Frequency: Weekdays Platform: Global Player Website: [The News Agents](https://www.thenewsagents.co.uk/)
This special bonus episode discusses the Labour Party Conference held in Liverpool, focusing on the challenges faced by Keir Starmer's leadership amid internal conflicts and public dissatisfaction.
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Key Themes and Discussions
Contrast with Previous Year
- Last Year: Labour members were celebrating an election victory, with Starmer seen as a revitalizing leader.
- This Year: The atmosphere is tense, with visible factionalism and doubts about Starmer's leadership capabilities.
Current Challenges for Keir Starmer
- Leadership Jockeying: Concerns about internal divisions, particularly with a deputy leadership battle underway.
- Public Discontent: Polling suggests Labour's popularity is waning, with many voters feeling worse off economically.
- Need for Clarity: Starmer is pressured to articulate a clear vision and define what "delivery" means for the party.
Internal Party Dynamics
- Factionalism: The conference reveals simmering tensions within the party, with various factions seeking coherence and direction.
- Andy Burnham's Influence: The Mayor of Greater Manchester is perceived as a key figure, with some party members considering him a potential leader.
- Public Perception: Polls indicate a significant portion of voters are dissatisfied with Starmer, leading to questions about his future as leader.
Key Poll Results
- Labour projected to lose seats, potentially falling to 191.
- Reform UK is shown to be gaining traction with polling indicating they could become the largest party.
Discussion on Starmer's Leadership Style
- Starmer criticized for avoiding bold ideas during the election campaign, leading to a lack of a clear mandate.
- Concerns that the party is lacking direction, which is exacerbated by public dissatisfaction and internal strife.
Arguments and Counterarguments
- Pro-Delivery: Advocates for clear, actionable plans are urged to define what success looks like.
- Economic Constraints: Starmer faces pressures from internal factions wanting to increase public spending while managing fiscal responsibilities.
The Role of Andy Burnham
- Burnham's remarks about Labour's economic policies have stirred up tensions, calling for less dependence on financial markets.
- His rising popularity poses a challenge to Starmer, especially as he positions himself as a more relatable leader.
Deputy Leadership Contest
- Candidates for deputy leadership include Bridget Phillipson and Lucy Powell, both expressing the need for a more coherent party strategy.
- Discussions reveal varied opinions on how to approach policy changes and party unity.
The Threat of Reform UK
- Labour's focus on addressing the rise of Reform UK, with Starmer's team beginning to engage more directly with the party's messaging around immigration and public sentiment.
Conclusions and Predictions
- The conference is seen as a critical moment for Starmer to restore confidence in his leadership.
- There is skepticism about whether Starmer can effectively navigate these challenges and present a united front as the party heads into future elections.
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Final Thoughts The episode highlights the precarious position of Keir Starmer and the Labour Party as they tackle internal divisions and public criticism. The discussions reflect a deep concern for the party's ability to maintain unity and effectively articulate a vision that resonates with voters. The upcoming budget and external challenges from Reform UK will likely define Labour's strategy moving forward.
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Next Steps Listeners are encouraged to follow ongoing coverage of the Labour Party Conference and related political developments throughout the week, as the situation evolves and new insights emerge.
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Transcript
Automatic transcript. May contain errors.0:02Jon Sopel:This is a Global Player original podcast. Right, we are at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, which has got underway. I've just finished my LBC Sunday show, which was jam-packed full of interviews in a conference, which feels like it is the most difficult for Keir Starmer, possibly of his leadership so far. We thought we'd bring you this special Sunday episode to set the scene for what will be an important week for the Labour Party, for Keir Starmer's government as he desperately tries to send a message that he has a mission, a moral and political mission for where he wants to take this country.
0:40Jon Sopel:Where will Keir Starmer be at the end of the week by comparison to its beginning? Welcome to the News Agents.
0:51Jon Sopel:The News Agents. It's Lewis. It's Agi. And we are at the Labour Party conference in Liverpool. It's the opening day, the first full proper day of the conference. And I've just finished recording the LBC show, which of course runs 10 till 12 every Sunday, in case you didn't already know. And it was packed show, had loads and loads of interviews, not least the two people vying to be deputy leader of the Labour Party, the Education Secretary Bridget Phillips and the recently departed cabinet minister, leader of the House of Commons, Lucy Powell, Aggie. Let's just like set before we get to some of these interviews, set the scene a little bit, right?
1:23Jon Sopel:This feels to me, this is kind of an odd conference, a really odd conference. It's easily the most kind of difficult one for Labour for some years, although that's not that surprising, considering last year they were still sort of basking in the warm afterglow of the election victory. The year before that, they were heading into government. So all of the kind of inevitable factionalism which dominates these conferences was kind of the kind of lid put on it. But it feels to me like this is a conference where, which is being billed as really important for Keir Starmer, really important for the future of his government.
1:49Jon Sopel:We should always maybe be a bit sceptical about how important externally these conferences are. Most people out there are obviously not paying any attention. But at a moment where people in the Labour Party definitely are, it is important. And it feels to me like the general sense is that the party, all of its wings are desperate for a sense of coherence, of definition, of mission, of moral mission, of where Starmer wants to take the party. And yet incoherency feels to me is still reigning. What do you think?
2:19Emily Maitlis:I think that's completely right. I think everyone here is desperate for the government to, genuinely, for the government to succeed, for the government to deliver. I think where the problems start is lots of people are very unclear about what delivery actually looks like, including, I think, some in the government. I do think one sort of positive bit of this conference is the fact that I think if it was a week ago, two weeks ago, it would have been more difficult for the government because of Andy Burnham. And of course, Andy Burnham, the mayor for Greater Manchester, has had these couple of interviews he's done this week, one with the New Statesman, one with The Telegraph.
2:52Emily Maitlis:And there were a couple of lines in there which I think have really irked Labour folks. So one of them was the fact that he said the government shouldn't be so in hock to the bond markets. The second was the fact that he said Labour MPs are asking me to stand. The reason this has basically united other Labour people is they think he went too far. They think he overplayed his hand. and even allies of his that I've spoken to say that he thinks he's probably feeling a little bit squeamish now and knows he went too far. And that's basically resulted in lots of people within the Labour Party basically feeling a bit like, actually, we do need this to go well.
3:23Emily Maitlis:We do want Keir to succeed. And actually, I think that is positive. And as one minister said to me, actually, as I was walking over to your show, Lewis, basically said it's a bit like Game of Thrones and the King of the North doesn't last long in the Game of Thrones.
3:36Jon Sopel:I have never watched Game of Thrones. People tell me I should... Well, yeah, I mean, that's what I'm... That is what happens.
3:40Emily Maitlis:Everyone dies, actually.
3:41Jon Sopel:Everyone dies. OK, fine, right, OK. Well, it's an appropriate metaphor for the Labour Party conference. Yeah, but I mean, you're right. I mean, look, this is the... I think you're completely right when you say that everybody here, everybody you talk to, including people you interview, say we've got to deliver. The problem is, is that Labour Party cannot actually fundamentally agree what delivery means, where delivery should be, and how it should deliver, right? And the truth is, is that, you know, Keir Starmer is being asked to provide definition at a moment where, according to the polling, he is...
4:09Jon Sopel:I think we should dwell on this. He's so personally, apparently disliked by the public. And the party, I mean, we had sort of polling for LBC today, which showed the Labour Party in a dismal position.
4:19Emily Maitlis:In a dismal position, that's right. So we've got this exclusive polling from 38 Degrees and Servation, which show reform on course to be the biggest party, 293 seats. Labour on course to go down to just 191. The Lib Dems, 63. The Conservatives, a dismal 42 seats. S &P 30 and the Greens winning just six and 13, 13 cabinet ministers including the Chancellor losing their seats to Reform UK and I think that point about delivery being so keen on delivery but what that definition actually looks like this I think plays to that point in 92 % of constituencies more people feel worse off than better or the same as last year 92 % after a year in government and I think that is what you heard kind of being discussed on your show this morning And that is why it's so difficult for the government.
5:08Emily Maitlis:So one of the first questions you asked Steve Reid, housing new, actually, new housing secretary, was why doesn't anyone like you?
5:16Jon Sopel:We know from what we saw at the last... Politics is very volatile at the moment. Trust in politics is probably at the lowest ebb in my lifetime. You're a new government. You're a new government. You're supposed to have... You're fresh. You're new. You're supposed to at least have a bit of a honeymoon. I mean, on a honeymoon like that, who'd get married? I'd be happier with a longer honeymoon. But the truth is, trust in politics is at a really, really low ebb. The previous government made big promise after big promise. Austerity, their version of Brexit, the changes that leads to levelling up never quite happened.
5:44Jon Sopel:So people have got very used to big promises that don't turn into anything. And that has affected all of politics and all of politicians. Yeah, I started off with a really sophisticated question this morning of like, why does no one like you? Why have you got no friends? Why have you got no friends? You've got no friends, mate.
5:57Emily Maitlis:But it is astonishing, and I know we keep saying it, But last year, they were, what, two months into having just won a landslide majority. And people talk about the fact that they were out of power for 14 years. And when you say to Labour people, where did it go wrong? Because you're only just over a year in and look at your poll ratings. Look at that poll that I just mentioned, 191 seats. Where did it all go wrong? And they often talk about, before the election, actually, they often talk about the campaign, the promises that were made, like the VAT, national insurance and income tax, promises not to raise those that basically left them in a kind of fiscal straight jacket.
6:33Emily Maitlis:Of course, Rachel Reeves, the Treasury, would say they need that fiscal straight jacket so they don't crash the markets. And also the fact that there was just not a good enough plan. And I think that's the thing we keep talking about. It wasn't a good enough plan. They often talk about Sue Gray, who was, of course, chief of staff and in charge of planning. And they just say, we came into government and we just, wow, we just didn't really know enough of what our plan was and what we were going to do.
6:53Jon Sopel:So I think that this, I've thought about this, I think this is actually the crucial thing. as so often, you know, the seeds for this stuff are sown kind of long ago. And I think that the truth is, if you try to square the circle, right, which I've thought about a lot, I know you will have done as well, how do you answer that riddle, which is you have a government which comes in with a huge majority and almost instantly, almost instantly finds itself disliked, if not reviled, finds itself with no political honeymoon, finds itself buffeted around, despite the fact that on paper we've actually got the most left-wing parliament in history, with a radical right reform doing all the running.
7:24Jon Sopel:And I think the truth is, one of the big reasons for that is they got a majority, but without any sort of mandate. They didn't ask for anything, right? They didn't go into the election with any sort of particularly big promises, and yet have still managed to disappoint despite the fact they didn't make many promises to begin with. And I think it comes back to the lack of legitimacy for any plan. We talked about so much right in the run-up of the election, about the Ming-Val strategy, which was the idea that Stammer was being so careful. The truth was he was too careful because they were so afraid of frightening the horses.
7:52Jon Sopel:and the fact they were enjoying such a big poll lead, it meant there was no incentive for them to think big thoughts, to come up with a really big plan. There was no incentive to come up with sort of politically interesting ideas. And that worked for them in the run-up to the election and failed immediately on the day after the election or started to create problems. Because they went into those government departments with, as they themselves said, a big scary diagnosis. The country's ruined, the country's going to hell in a handcart, but with no sense of prescription. And now they're having to come up with that prescription, it seems to me, on the job.
8:23Jon Sopel:And when you're doing that in government, that's just hard, right? It's just, it's nightmarish.
8:26Emily Maitlis:And it just comes back to that question that Keir Starmer is asked again and again and again, and the Labour Party is asked again and again and again, what do you stand for? What do you believe? What do you believe? And the problem was during the election, at least to critics within the Labour Party of Keir Starmer, they would basically say they were completely focused on winning. They were completely focused on the Ming-Vars strategy. They were completely focused on not screwing it up. And then it meant that basically they were so focused on that that there just weren't that many ideas There weren't that many thoughts.
8:52Emily Maitlis:And I think exactly to your point, that is where, some would say, they've fallen down.
8:56Jon Sopel:Exactly. And now they've got the sort of prospects. I mean, part of it is Starmer himself, not, as we've talked about before, he's not a politician who enjoys talking about ideas. He's not a politician. He kind of thinks that's sort of chin-strokey and Westminster stuff. The problem is, the problem the way I would put it now, is one of the reasons the government seems buffeted from crisis to crisis is precisely because it is a party or it's a ship which is lacking a destination. And the thing is, is that, you know, if you know where you're going, it doesn't matter if you're buffeted off course a little bit because ultimately you can get back on course more easily.
9:27Jon Sopel:The problem is the reason it looks like they're being buffeted around is because the Labour Party doesn't feel like it knows where it's going. And as a result, these little fiascos, these little crises feel worse in news management terms and in political terms than perhaps even they are because there's nothing to fall back on, right? Like Cameron went through endless kind of problems, you know, endless little fiascos and crises. But because they had such a strong sort of political objective where they were going with austerity or whatever it was, whether you thought it was a right, good idea or a bad idea, it was clear where they were going.
9:55Jon Sopel:So they seem less important. I mean, obviously now as well, to fill that vacuum or sense of destination, you've got other players coming along. Enter Andy Burnham. Enter Andy Burnham. Right. And he is precisely trying. I mean, you say I think you're completely right. He's done it in a quite heavy handed way. But he was trying basically to fill that vacuum and then added on to that, which is another source of instability for the party at the moment, is this unexpected deputy leadership contest where all of these ideas and all of these bits of dissatisfaction with Labour, with the government, with the leadership, which have basically been suppressed up to now, they now have an open forum for those to be aired, i.e.
10:31Jon Sopel:the deputy leadership. So we have both of the candidates of deputy leadership on the show today, including the Education Secretary, Bridget Phillipson, who is basically the number 10 candidate, although she denies that accusation. Ask her what she made of what Andy Burnham had to say. I just think politicians have got to tread with care in this and the only reason that we're able to expand free school meals to half a million more children, expand childcare to 30 hours for working parents, bring in free school meals, bring in free breakfast clubs, is because we have delivered economic stability.
11:04Jon Sopel:Economic stability is a precondition for turning things around and for delivering investment in public services. It's not one or the other. It has to be both together. And it's very easy when you're not involved in those decisions in the way that we are day to day and that I am day to day to make rather glib pronouncements like that. Do you think he should return to Parliament? Would you like to see him back in Parliament? I think Andy's doing a good job in Manchester and he's got a long way to run on that front. Oh, he's doing a great job. He's got a great job in Manchester.
11:31Emily Maitlis:In Manchester.
11:31Jon Sopel:Not in Westminster.
11:33Emily Maitlis:Please stay in Manchester.
11:34Jon Sopel:In Manchester. No, I mean, again, not the number 10 candidate, of course. No, no, no, no, no, no, of course not. But again, that's what I mean. You're seeing those little kind of tensions and whatever it be. And, you know, pretty strong briefing we've seen over the course of the weekend. And, you know, Philipson echoed it directly, basically comparing Burnham in saying we need to be less in hock to the bond markets, i.e. the people who lend the government money, the institutions, financial institutions, which lend the government money to finance its borrowing, basically comparing him to Liz Truss.
11:58Emily Maitlis:I know. And Philipson said it as well.
11:59Jon Sopel:She's basically like the Labour Party equivalent of saying you stink.
12:02Emily Maitlis:I know. Philipson basically saying you've got to be responsible, talking about Andy. Politicians have got to tread with care on this. Did you see there was a photo circulating of someone had done a face mash of Andy Burnham's face? Oh, he's terrible. The stuff of nightmares. I think if anyone... Do not Google it. Do not Google it. They're all going to do that now, aren't they?
12:21Jon Sopel:Absolutely instantly. And then meanwhile, you've got... Burnham's presence is now... It really feels like the Johnson presence in the Tory conferences of the Theresa May years. I mean, when he arrives, I don't think he's here yet, but when he arrives, there's going to be a circus around him, right? Yeah, OK. he might think maybe he went a little bit too far but everybody, every fringe event he's going to do at this conference every single one is going to have the whole Westminster press pack there to pour over every single word of what he said there's going to be news video and there's going to be footage of him, if any selfies people are taking with him, all the people at the conference saying go on Andy, love you Andy, all that sort of stuff which is exactly the kind of king over the water feel that Boris Johnson played in the Theresa May years.
13:01Emily Maitlis:I feel like that's always Andy Barnum's wrong conference In 2021...
13:05Jon Sopel:It's more acute, I suppose.
13:06Emily Maitlis:I think that's definitely right. And also, he's saying definitely more explicit things, isn't he? He's not being particularly subtle about it. But in 2021, I think we were in Brighton. So you can see it from his face. So we were in Brighton, and Andy Burnham then, I can so picture him sort of posing with a dog, like a very sweet dog and people taking selfies. And it was sort of... That was a difficult conference for Keir Starmer as well because he was trying to force through rule changes. But Andy Burnham is always there, and he's extremely popular. He's popular with Labour members and he's popular in the country.
Read the full transcript
13:35Jon Sopel:And he's popular with the mayor of the Liverpool city region. Basically, he's best mate in politics, Steve Rotherham, who I chatted to yesterday. Here's what he had to say about Andy Burnham's prospects. He's my best mate. So I always think that my mates can do a better job than anyone because they're my mates, whether it's playing football or politics. But we've got a prime minister at the moment and we're supporting, both of us are supporting Keir Starmer as our prime minister. That's sweet, isn't it? It's nice. He's my best mate. He's my mate. I bet a lot of people don't think their best mates necessarily should be Prime Minister.
14:07Emily Maitlis:I feel very strongly that all of my best mates could do an excellent job running the country.
14:10Jon Sopel:Meanwhile, I think it's fair to say that Rotherham is not Keir Starmer's best mate. Here's what he had to say about the Prime Minister's prospects, despite saying that he's supporting the Prime Minister in an expert. Do you think Keir Starmer should lead the party into the next election? It depends. And it depends on the progress that we make, because this has been the difficult period. and any prime minister would have faced all of those hurdles that the Labour government have had. If we carry on like this, then it's going to be difficult, isn't it? Because if we start to enter the campaign towards the 2029 election and we're miles behind, then we'd have to reassess who would be best to lead us.
14:51Jon Sopel:But at this moment in time, yes, Keir Starmer should lead us into that election. Friends like them. Wow.
14:58Emily Maitlis:I mean, I think that is a pretty big moment. I feel like it's what some people are saying behind closed doors at the moment. But to have Steve Rotherham, who, yes, is very close to Andy Burnham, best mates, of course, and, yes, is not the biggest fan of Keir Starmer and his leadership, but it does feel like a moment when people are coming out and saying, if things don't improve, he won't be or cannot be Labour leader at the next general election.
15:21Jon Sopel:Yeah, indeed. He's easily the most senior Labour figure that I've heard enunciate that, to say that in any kind of way. You know, people listening to this, we might think, you know, the ways of Westminster is weird, which they are, and the world of Westminster, we do, is weird, and it is. Might think, well, it's just a statement of the obvious, right? Like, if it's not working, why wouldn't they change it? But it is, to articulate that, to actually say it, I mean, maybe this is just ridiculous in a way, is unusual, like, in Westminster terms. The typical line, which we obviously heard from Steve Reid this morning and others is, you know, PM is the PM, come what may, he's going to lead us into the election, full stop.
15:52Emily Maitlis:Yeah, but listen to what Lucy Powell said when you asked her the same question.
15:55Jon Sopel:Do you think he should 100 % lead the party into the next election?
16:00Emily Maitlis:He should be 100 % focused on being the great Prime Minister I know he can be, and I want to support him in that. It's not quite the same thing, though, is he? Yeah, no, of course he should be the leader going into the next election.
16:11Jon Sopel:100%, there should be no question about that. He will be the Labour Party leader going into the election.
16:15Emily Maitlis:I want him to be more successful, and I want this government to be a better version of itself.
16:22Jon Sopel:That is, I think, what we call a backhanded compliment.
16:24Emily Maitlis:I think that's what we call a word salad. If you compare what Steve Reid says, you know, absolutely. Backhanded word salad. Backhanded word salad. Absolutely, he will be Labour leader at the next general election. And then you have Lucy Powell, who of course is running to be deputy leader, and said at a different point during that interview, that she could be, what was it, more explicit in her criticism. She was being restrained, she said, about her criticism of the government, and basically suggested that she was sacked as leader of the Commons because she was being critical of the government.
16:52Jon Sopel:So I was thinking about why it is, or one of the reasons why it might be, that figures like Powell or Rotherham might be more willing at this early stage of the Parliament to say this. And obviously part of it is because they're kind of Burnham allies, so it's sort of partly that, although I still don't really see how Burnham poses a threat to Starmer given he's not in Parliament and the only person who could make it an MP and therefore a threat to himself is Keir Starmer, so I don't quite see how that works. But anyway, I think one of the reasons thinking about it is Labour is very bad at getting rid of its leaders if they're not doing well.
17:23Jon Sopel:It's something the Tory party does all the time. Labour has almost no history of it at all. I do wonder whether one of the reasons that Starmer might struggle more, or the prospects for his leadership might be worse if he's seen to continue to be struggling, is because it's not the Tories who are the beneficiary of his woes. It's reform. And that scares Labour, right? It's not just like the normal kind of cyclical toss and turn of politics. it's potentially about something really new. It's not just, I mean, obviously Labour never want a Tory government, they don't like the Tories, they're afraid of what they might do, but they're terrified of reform, not just because of the threat they might pose, but because they would just scramble all we know about British politics.
18:02Jon Sopel:They might destroy the two-party system, which Labour has obviously to some extent been a beneficiary of. And, you know, some of them are genuinely afraid, as Sadiq Khan has talked about, as others have talked about, of them being a threat to British democracy. So it sort of raises the volatility stakes, it feels to me, that Labour might be willing to do stuff that they might not ordinarily do.
18:19Emily Maitlis:I think that is completely right. And also Labour know that what happens or what has historically happened is the Tories win a general election after Labour have and then at some stage Labour get back in. They genuinely, I mean, reform winning is just the unknown for them. It is genuinely the unknown.
18:34Jon Sopel:The end of a century of the two-party duopoly.
18:36Emily Maitlis:But on the regicide point, because Labour people do sometimes say, yes, yes, the Labour Party doesn't buy into regicide, it doesn't do it. And I think that is why lots of people feel uncomfortable about Andy Burnham's interjections over the past few days. But I do think they have had far fewer Labour prime ministers. And I do think that does play into it. And I also think that politics, since they last had a Labour prime minister, Gordon Brown, has become a lot more, well, insane. You know, it's unpredictable. And so I think things have changed. I don't completely buy Labour doesn't buy into regicide.
19:09Jon Sopel:I think that's completely right. And actually, I was talking to the Prime Minister the other day, who was saying people don't understand just how angry the PLP is. I did the Parliamentary Labour Party, i.e. MPs. Like, they are just furious, including loads of the new MPs, who still on paper should be quite sanguine and happy and glad just to be here, frankly. You know, they are just, like, furious with Number 10. I mean, I was even talking to a Cabinet Minister over the summer who was saying that he's not convinced, if the budget's not right, he's not convinced that all Labour MPs would vote for it.
19:35Jon Sopel:I mean, that's stunning, right? A budget, right? That's basically confidence in the government. But honestly, I say, you've got to be joking me. It's like, no, no, genuinely. I think there's every possibility that the budget might struggle to get through. Wow. Which would be nuts.
19:46Emily Maitlis:Which would be nuts. And I mean, that is because, number one, they're worried about losing their seats and they don't feel confident in Keir Starmer managing to win back their seats. And also they don't feel they have enough contact with number 10. Is there anything else?
19:57Jon Sopel:Yeah, and I think just general, like, sub-zero unhappiness about how they've handled politics up to now. I, number 10 as well. And it feels to me, I mean, that's the other theme it feels to me on this Sunday of conference, which is, to some extent, I think one of the reasons, I mean, you know how these things work. I think we'll probably get to the end of the week and people will say, that was a great triumph for Keir Starmer. This conference is a great triumph. He'll probably do a decent speech and he'll start to articulate his vision and people will say, that's the Keir Starmer we really want to see.
20:21Jon Sopel:That's the kind of vision that we need to hear. But I think that in a way, this conference is a bit of a placeholder, right? In a sense that right now, Labour Party, all of its wings, all of its unhappiness can say and can point to the budget in November, which is coming up fast, to basically say, that's got to be the crunch point. We've got to see the answers that we need, the turning point that we need, the kind of political kind of inflection moment that we need to start to turn things around. But if that doesn't happen, and I'm not sure what it would have to look like for that to happen, then you can imagine the sticking plaster really being ripped off.
20:58Emily Maitlis:What happens if the sticking plaster really does get ripped off? Because genuinely, I mean, you referenced it there. it's not clear at all whether Andy Burnham would manage to get a seat in Westminster. It's really complicated. There's various different steps, including, as you mentioned, the National Executive Committee having to actually sign off on him being a candidate in a by-election, which might not happen. But also, if the budget, well, if it gets voted down, I think, as you say, unlikely. But if he was forced out after that, what happens next? Because the economy, we know, you know, the bond markets actually do like Rachel Rees, the Chancellor, after she cried at PMQs because of a family matter.
21:31Emily Maitlis:they were clear that they wanted the Chancellor to stay in post.
21:34Jon Sopel:She's a bit like Jeremy Hunt was in the post-trust period.
21:36Emily Maitlis:Yeah, stability, right? And so what happens to the economy if Keir Starmer is forced out? And I thought what Rosine Allen-Kahn and John McDonnell recently, back as a Labour MP John McDonnell said, was interesting. Especially John McDonnell basically talking about the fact that if things don't improve, he thought actually Keir Starmer would just stand down.
21:53Jon Sopel:I've worked with Keir Starmer. If we're in a situation like we are now, I know what Keir will do. He's a responsible person. he'll think I'm not doing the job and he'll stand down himself. I think he has potentially been advised by some of the wrong people. I think the internal infighting that happened over things like the winter fuel allowance, the two-char benefit cap, our party needs to be a broad church. And I think some of the polling that has been out there recently has reflected that our members want to see that. So I think he would do well to make sure that all voices across the party are heard.
22:24Jon Sopel:What it feels like to me is that this is a party which is, I think, one way or the other. We're going to see this in the budget. I think Starmer is going to find himself having to do a lot of internal party management, which actually will result in all sorts of ways in lots of kind of moves to the left, even if that's not kind of what they anchor on. So, for example, you mentioned John McDonnell, and he lost the whip over the two-child benefit cap. That's basically moved to almost be kind of received wisdom now that that is going to be lifted, right? We are going to see there is a huge, like, push in the Labour Party for greater wealth taxation.
23:05Jon Sopel:Again, I think that partly because of internal party management reasons, we might not get to everything that they want, but I would be surprised if Reeves does not make some sort of move, whether it's through changes in council tax, whether it's something on land value. I don't know. But some move, which is a sop to, not the Labour left as such, but the kind of median point of the PLP right now, which wants this sort of thing. So I think that, you know, he reminds me a bit increasingly, Starmer, even though he's kind of made his name as being a bit of a scourge of the left. I think he's going to end up being a bit like Biden.
23:33Jon Sopel:He's going to end up spending a lot of time ticking off because of his, what feels like an increasingly weak position, ticking off lots of internal Labour things, which might not amount much to an internal narrative, but will be increasingly kind of inward focused.
23:48Emily Maitlis:And I think it's interesting that they've really upped their focus on Farage and the language they're using around Nigel Farage and Reform UK. In the last few days, I mean, has really, really stepped up a notch. I mean, basically suggesting that Nigel Farage is the enemy in an interview a couple of days ago, and also suggesting that some of their policies on indefinite leave to remain, basically scrapping that is racist. And I thought Lucy Powell, again, deputy leadership contender, on that was really, really strong. The policy of rounding up and deporting people who are here legally and lawfully, who are contributing to this country, you know, is absolutely the wrong and immoral and is immoral.
24:28Jon Sopel:In that spirit of taking back the microphone, Lucy Powell, and straight talking, do you think Farage is racist?
24:32Emily Maitlis:I think some of what he says and does is, I don't think that he, everything about him is or that everything about, you know, those that... But if you indulge in racist policies, that makes you a racist, doesn't it? But, you know, I think that's the wrong... I'm trying to kind of rest back the microphone to say, let's have a conversation about what's really wrong with our country. And he wants to say that immigration is the root of all evil, is the root cause of all the problems that my constituents are facing. And I disagree with that.
24:59Jon Sopel:At the same time, and again, I think this comes back to what we're saying about coherence and about different bits of the Labour Party putting in different directions and not necessarily it being well-formed from number 10, what the message is. because at the same moment that Starmer said this morning called Farage's policy on indefinite leave to remain racist, which is a very different line to which they took earlier in the week, which basically is just unworkable. It's not a moral question, it's just unworkable. You've got Powell saying that there, but Shabala Mahmood also giving an interview to The Sun this morning, the new Home Secretary, basically saying we're going to be even tougher on migrants, all of this sort of stuff on immigrants.
25:29Jon Sopel:Now, you can, of course, you can separate out, there is a difference between your policy towards indefinite leave to remain and people who have arrived here improperly or legally or irregularly, but it's still a little confusing in terms of the message that you're sending.
25:40Emily Maitlis:Yeah, and I think it's confusing when you're basically changing the line on it. But I thought Lucy Powell basically saying, you know, we need to wrest back the microphone from Nigel Farage and make the case. But what case? And is there enough of Keir Starmer and people in his cabinet basically making an argument and being clear about what needs to be delivered without just talking about Nigel Farage?
26:01Jon Sopel:Well, I am intrigued to see whether this shift remains because up to now, the number 10 strategy for dealing with Farage is basically actually to treat him with kid gloves in some ways. You could say, apart from things, traditional stuff on the NHS and so on, particularly on migration, they've basically said, more or less, and I think it is quite problematic, basically said that Farage is right about the diagnosis. He just can't sort of be trusted. He's just incompetent or whatever it is. Now, Number 10 Starmer are making quite a different argument, which is actually to say that his instincts on this stuff are wrong, that he's racist, basically.
26:32Jon Sopel:And they've been very reluctant to engage in those much more sort of emotional, moral, political kind of means of debate with him up to now because they've been afraid of basically what I ended up doing with Steve Reid this morning, afraid of the accusation that they're suggesting that the people who support him are racist. I mean, look, for God's sake, I mean, they wouldn't even say the other week that people who turned up at the Tommy Robinson rally, who's obviously on the far right and has had loads of racist views for a long time, they wouldn't even say that that was problematic. So this feels like quite a big shift if they sustain it.
27:03Jon Sopel:But I don't know if they will.
27:04Emily Maitlis:No. And why do you think they're doing it? Because to go back to that polling that I was talking about before with 38 degrees and salvation this morning, one of the things that they found was that there could be a progressive majority of the eight. And basically Labour, Lib Dems, Green, SNP, Plaid Cymru. and on them they were actually mostly they sort of had varied outlooks on immigration but it wasn't an overwhelming factor in how they vote and actually what they said as well the party leadership isn't considered to be very important to bring you back to the burning point what's more important and key to winning their votes a change of tone with clearer intention and ambition so maybe they're looking at things like that and thinking okay well maybe we can be a bit more critical of Farage maybe there is space for us to do that without tarring every would-be reformed voter.
27:47Jon Sopel:I think it goes back to what I was saying at the start. It's a party which is yearning for definition, and I think Number 10 are trying to provide that definition. I think the question continues to be, is Starmer sufficiently adroit in communications terms to pull off what is quite difficult balancing it, which you just say, right, which is basically slam Farage's instincts, slam him as basically being dangerous, while at the same time recognising some of the very legitimate impulses which people have which might lead to support him, which is difficult. And, you know, I don't think we should be afraid of saying, I mean, like, you know, if there were ever a space to go for him, surely it is that Farage opened it up this week on indefinite leave to remain.
28:24Jon Sopel:I mean, that stuff and tying him with Trump and tying him with the sort of deportations policy that we've seen in the United States, I think is an open space for Labour because a lot of people are concerned about it. Not least, we spoke to the businessman Theo Pfitis earlier, you know, very successful, formerly on Dragon's Den. And he was, I mean, he's a first generation immigrant himself. And he was very striking what he had to say about the prospect of a Farage government. So you're talking to a first-generation immigrant? I think we've got to be careful about what we say. There's certain people in certain parties that there's no question are selling snake oil.
28:59Jon Sopel:And what we don't want to do is have our streets full of unmarked cars, people in balaclavas with no identification, pulling people off the streets and making them disappear. that is not the United Kingdom and that is definitely not something I would like to see coming across from America to the United Kingdom. Do you think that's a danger? Do you think Nigel Farage is selling snake oil? Without question. Would you be afraid of a Nigel Farage premiership government? I'd be terrified. And that sums up the, I think, the dilemma, right, which Number 10 are obviously evolving their position on, which is there are lots of people, including people in the kind of, as you say, a progressively-minded coalition who are scared of Farage and are scared of what he might represent.
29:48Jon Sopel:And sort of threading the needle of recognising that, articulating that concern, whilst not being seen or being able to be accused of ignoring the other part of your coalition, Red Wall in particular, the concerns, as I say, which lead people to support Farage, is difficult.
30:06Emily Maitlis:And also saying to those people as well that are pissed off the 92 % of constituencies who don't feel better off or the same as last year, we get it as well. That is really complicated. And I think as well, back to your Trump point, I think threading the needle on Donald Trump is something that they are trying to do and are slightly evolving as well. Because up until this week, I don't think I'd ever heard a cabinet minister be critical of Donald Trump since he'd been elected. And this week, following the Tylenol comments, you actually have had ministers being a little bit more outspoken on that.
30:36Emily Maitlis:But the British public, 70 % of the British public do not like Donald Trump. And Keir Starmer, for right or for wrong, feels he needs to keep Donald Trump on side, feels he's been vindicated because of these tech deals, because of the fact that they haven't had a sort of explosive row in the Oval Office like he had with Zelensky. But how is that playing with the public?
30:54Jon Sopel:But funnily enough, I actually think that's why. The Lib Dems actually turning hard on making that connection between Farage and Trump is actually quite helpful for Labour because it's not something that the government, for the reasons you identify, because they have to maintain a relationship with Trump. It's not something they can do very often or very readily, is make that comparison. But Lib Dems can. And the truth is, is that what I think is, is that, you know, I mean, you're sort of seeing this now. And I think this is kind of part of the reasoning for why Starmer is now coming hard for Farage, or going hard for Farage.
31:27Jon Sopel:You know, if an election were tomorrow, and obviously it's not, and that's why we've got people saying it's such a long way away, and I actually think it's underestimated the extent to which actually reform could implode by then and that Labour should probably keep its head together a little bit. But anyway, but if it were anywhere near the near future, then what you would have is basically almost a European-style election under first-past-the-post, which is the complexity. But in a European-style election, like a Scandinavian election or whatever, you've basically got a red bloc and a blue bloc, and you've got a progressive bloc and, in this case, a populist bloc.
31:59Jon Sopel:and it would basically be, do you want Farage to be Prime Minister or not bloc? And in that situation, really, like, that's why Ed Davey didn't mention Keir Starmer in his speech last week. Keir Starmer's not his enemy. Keir Starmer is actually his path. Keir Starmer is the path for that bloc to actually keep Farage out. And it would be very, very unusual in British political terms. We wouldn't really have an election like that. And it would be even more unpredictable, the outcome, because unlike in a European-style election, we haven't got PR. we've got first past the post, which makes it even harder for voters to game their preferences.
32:32Jon Sopel:So that's how it feels to me politics is sort of forming at the moment.
32:35Emily Maitlis:And I think the poll that we saw this morning basically shows that. I mean, no one would have a majority. It would be hung parliament. And, you know, you move 2%, 3 % and, you know, you are in a completely different situation. And as you say, it is worth pointing out that we are a really long way away. But as someone from Labour said to me last night, they thought it was easier to go from popular to unpopular than it is to go unpopular to popular. So yes, there are three years, and yes, things can move very quickly. But also, reform could become more unpopular, and then Labour could be the beneficiaries, basically.
33:05Jon Sopel:They could screw it up as they started to do this. But I suppose the difference is, and again, this is another one of those, I mean, we've talked about so many contradictions right now, but one of the contradictions is, about politics right now, is that yes, an election is a long way away, and anything can happen politically in that time. But three or even four years in policy terms is not a long time. And if they believe, if they're right, which I'm not convinced they are, but is right, by the way, But if you assume that the analysis, which Starmer basically has had since the beginning, that this is about delivery and being seen to deliver, then actually delivering and turning around public services, three years or four is not long.
33:40Jon Sopel:You've basically got to be doing it now or probably yesterday, particularly if you're talking about big legislation, rolling things out. I mean, look at things like Heathrow, whatever it is. We're talking about 20 years time, big infrastructure projects, whatever it happens. Most of this stuff won't even appear by 2029. Doing NHS and so on. So you've kind of got to have those ideas now, which feels to me part of the problem.
33:58Emily Maitlis:Yeah, and all politics is local, right? I mean, it's about kind of people. A lot of it is about the economy and people feeling like they've got more money in their pockets, which, you know, the government, I had some figures this week from the Joseph Roundtree Foundation, basically said living standards are set to fall by the end of the decade. People like the average family is going to be£550 less well off than they were last year when the election happened. And that is what people will feel at the end of the election when, you know, Keir Starmer says it was all about delivery. It was all about that.
34:27Emily Maitlis:It was all about the NHS and people don't feel tangibly different. That will be how people vote.
34:33Jon Sopel:And the other thing, just finally for a wrap, I think that, again, what basically we've been kind of orbiting or circling around in this chat is all of the reasons why the party is struggling or feels incoherent. And this week is about trying to inject some of that coherence. It feels to me that one of the problems in doing that is that Labour, I think, even most of the Labour Party, the Parliamentary Labour Party, I think in some sense want to move left on various things, whether that's increases in public spending, whether it's sort of changes on wealth tax or whatever, they're obviously people who would disagree.
35:03Jon Sopel:But part of the problem is you have that and you have that deep desire. And that is basically what most of them mean, including Lucy Powell, when they're talking about change and being more authentically Labour or whatever it is. And at the same time, there is this albatross around their neck of government debts, of the bond markets, of the fiscal rules. And it is really hard to see the path through that which satisfies both of those requirements. You know, even Keir Starman himself, I'm sure in an ideal world, would love to be spending, I'm sure he would, loads more if it were possible, on the NHS or education or whatever.
35:35Jon Sopel:And maybe it is possible, maybe Burnham's right that you could do it in a way that you satisfied the bond markets. But it is a gamble. And that's the gamble. And if it didn't pay off, my word, there is a long history within the Labour Party of Labour governments having financial crises and not recovering for a generation. And that, you know, Reeves is a student of Labour history. She will know that.
35:55Emily Maitlis:And I think the two-child benefit cap is exactly that, right? It's, you know, it's actually not popular in the country. More people don't want to keep the cap than lose the cap. It's expensive. Labour doesn't really have any cash. And yet, as you say, it's basically nailed on that sounds like, at least in the budget, that will probably go because so many Labour folk want it. Exactly.
36:13Jon Sopel:That's what I mean about having to do internal party management and ending up in places just like over the welfare reforms that maybe you don't want to end up in because of your own weakness internally.
36:20Emily Maitlis:And you're having to spend three and a half billion pounds that you basically don't have.
36:33Jon Sopel:The News Agents.
36:35Emily Maitlis:Well, are we excited for this week, Agnes? I am excited. Agnes, I am excited. I just think it's worth saying that I arrived in Liverpool yesterday, got to Liverpool station, I got in a taxi, and the taxi driver turned around and said, are you here for Labour? Oh, all right, we're having our own taxi.
36:49Jon Sopel:All right, Nigel Farage. What do you think this is, Nick Ferrari's show?
36:52Emily Maitlis:I wish. And he said, you're here for Labour Conference? I said, yes. And he said, what do you think of Keir Starmer? I'll tell you what I think of Keir Starmer. And he immediately started... You never meet a taxi driver who says,
37:02Jon Sopel:I haven't got an opinion, do you?
37:03Emily Maitlis:Yeah, just got no thoughts. immediately started absolutely venting about him, including the line that he would rather Margaret Thatcher was back, saying Labour would lose Liverpool the next election. He did say he thought Andy Burnham was pretty good. But he was honestly fuming. Part of it was about digital ID cards. Part of it was basically him just feeling that Keir Starmer was not serving him. And he said, he works for me, he works for me, and he's not serving me. And he was absolutely, sort of genuinely spitting feathers. And it was that tone I entered the ACC and entered Labour Conference.
37:34Emily Maitlis:And I just thought that was interesting.
37:37Jon Sopel:I do find, again, very briefly, I do find, I have to say I have to sort of challenge my own prejudices in a way with this stuff, because I kind of find that experience you just had about Starmer, we know he's not unique, right? Some people, quite a lot of people in this country loathe the guy. We see that in the poll and we see it in the focus groups. They speak about him viscerally badly, right? I always have to kind of, I have to really, in the same way that I could never quite work out, again my own personal prejudice, why so many people some people really love Boris Johnson I had to go through my head like oh I think this is the reason, with Starmer I kind of struggle to see why anyone would loathe him or have very very strong feelings about him one way or the other I can understand why lots of people would be really indifferent about him, maybe be quite pissed off about him maybe dislike things about him but that visceral kind of loathing because he actually is so he's what he is, he doesn't have a great deal of kind of like purchase or personality it's sort of hard to see it but I think one of the reasons is I think it goes back to what we were saying at the start.
38:28Jon Sopel:I think people feel that partly because he hasn't got a strong political personality or sense of mission, people then project onto him their worst fears about politics. And their worst fears about politics are that people are self-serving. And because he doesn't appear, again, to have a strong sense of mission or destination, people just think he's in it for himself, which I think is unfair. But I think that's my impression as to one of the reasons why there is that strong feeling about him from some people.
38:52Emily Maitlis:Yes, and also the fact that he's a sir. I mean, people...
38:55Jon Sopel:They associate him with the establishment.
38:56Emily Maitlis:They associate him with the establishment, which actually isn't really fair. I mean, in my old life, when I was at Politico and did a Westminster Insider episode, we did a profile on him. And, you know, we went back to his old house. We spoke to some of his neighbours, spoke to the people who are currently living in the house. And, you know, he really, really, really is not part of the establishment. Yes, he became DPP, the Director of Public Prosecutions, and he became a sir. But it is amazing that he is unable to talk about the fact that he understands, as the text driver said, he would not understand, he did not understand what it was like to struggle.
39:25Emily Maitlis:it's amazing that he is unable to be able to kind of communicate that and talk about.
39:30Jon Sopel:And yet Faraj can
39:31Emily Maitlis:and yet Faraj can.
39:32Jon Sopel:Story of our times right well you can of course get loads of coverage, rolling coverage of this conference on LBC throughout the week Aggie thank you.
39:39Emily Maitlis:Thank you Lewis
39:50Jon Sopel:The News Agents Right we will be back with more throughout the week of course on the newsagents. John will be up here tomorrow for lots more from the Labour Party conference and wherever the news will take us as well. We'll see you then. Bye-bye.
From the publisher
Cast your mind back to last year in Liverpool and it's hard to imagine much more of a contrasting picture to this year's Labour party conference.
Then, party members were still basking in the glow of the election victory, Keir Starmer applauded as the leader who'd defied the odds and returned Labour to power.
Now? Leadership jockeying is well underway, a deputy leadership battle could further divide the party, and there is widespread dismay at the speed with which Labour's honeymoon period in office ended - if it ever existed at all.
Is this crunch time for Keir Starmer to reassert his vision as PM and give party activists something to feel good about? Why are some senior figures now openly questioning whether he can lead the party into the next election? Has Burnham made his play too early? And could a new message on Reform and Farage be part of Labour's comeback strategy?
Lewis and LBC's political correspondent Aggie Chambre have your conference preview from Liverpool.
