Can Andy Burnham's revolution fix Britain?

20:51So we talked on the newsagents last week about maybe this is all happening for Andy Burnham.

20:57Jon Sopel:at a really lucky moment where things are starting to turn around on the economy, immigration numbers, all the rest of it, NHS waiting lists, and that he is going to be a lucky general. I think it was the phrase you used last week, Emily. And one other thing about all of this in a wider political context is it also seems to be at a time when reform is having all sorts of problems and Nigel Farage did that round of interviews which were a disaster trying to explain away his five million quid bung and you just wonder and I heard it over the weekend from various Labour people well maybe a general election is not waiting until 2029 maybe it could come even sooner with a big burn and bounce particularly given the agenda that he is sort of sketched out today.

21:50Andy Burnham:You can hear the sighs, can't you, from our listeners who are sort of going, oh my God, you guys are getting ahead of your skis. It's not enough for you to see one prime minister off in one week and stop welcoming in another prime minister before he's even become prime minister. You're now trying to rush us all into a general election. Here's why I don't think that is that fanciful. Two things that are important to bear in mind, and this is going back to polling, some of which is pretty old, right? But we have seen transitional prime ministerships before. One was Theresa May's into Boris Johnson.

22:29Andy Burnham:One was Gordon Brown's from Tony Blair. And there is a big question when this happens as to the timing of a general election in terms of solidifying your own mandate to the country. Now, if Andy Burnham had come in and said, I'm going to do exactly what Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves did, but hopefully I'm going to do it a bit faster. I think that that question goes away a bit. It's it's further down the road. if Andy Burnham comes in and says the whole thing hasn't worked for 10 years the whole thing hasn't worked for 20 years the whole thing hasn't worked because it's been Westminster focus rather than Manchester focus and I know what works because I've done it in Manchester and I'm going to literally devolve power to every corner of the UK it is a radical enough suggestion and bear in mind he said he he sees it as a 10-year project it's a radical enough suggestion for him probably to have to think he does need to get this signed off by the country.

23:35Andy Burnham:So then the question is, do you wait or do you go early? Prime ministers tend to be, transitional prime ministers tend to be at the height of their power in polls, in the polling terms, within three months of taking office. Now, that is scarily short. If he comes into power at the end of July, we are talking about the height of his power being probably what? Well, we're all on sun loungers. Right, exactly. So if it's within three months, I think that's pretty unlikely. I don't think anyone can contemplate an election, genuinely. In October, that sounds crazy. But actually, if the polls respond in the way that historically we have seen, which is that you lose more power the longer you stay in in that first year, then probably he is thinking about something fairly close to next spring, right?

24:25Jon Sopel:Well, you use two examples, which I, you know, of, you know, Gordon Brown taking over from Blair, Theresa May taking over from Cameron. I mean, those are examples where you go for an election and things don't work out that well.

24:38Andy Burnham:Well, no, sorry. I should have explained. Theresa May went to the polls too early. She didn't need to. And she failed. Gordon Brown didn't go to the polls and he should have done. And he then failed when it got to 2010.

24:50Jon Sopel:So let's look at the one which actually worked brilliantly, which was when they got rid of Thatcher. You know, Neil Kinnock was way ahead in the polls as the Labour leader. When Thatcher was Prime Minister, the poll tax was at its height. There were the splits in the Cabinet over Europe. And, you know, everyone wanted to see the back of Margaret Thatcher. And it all looked certain for Neil Kinnock to become the next Prime Minister at the next general election. And suddenly the Tories get rid of Thatcher. John Major becomes the Prime Minister. He gets rid of the poll tax. And people think, and, you know, for a moment, the arguments over Europe subside and people think well we've got what we wanted now and so John Major goes to the 92 election and against all the odds pulls off a victory a clear conservative majority now obviously it all started to fall apart after that but that was a moment where you change the leader and you change the dynamic and suddenly John Major is riding much higher in the polls general election and wins it and I'm sure that there will be people around Annie Burnham who if it you know if there is this bounce and of course our politics is very different today than it was in 92 or 2010 when we've got you know when we've got the greens now we've got reform now we've got restore now you know we've got all these parties that are now kind of vying for power it is perfectly possible that something comes along and that Andy Burnham thinks there is an opportunity

26:14Andy Burnham:yeah I mean it's very funny actually I was at um George Osborne on Thursday night and he said well if Andy Burnham's brave enough he'll just go for this in in three months time um because you know that would be the the kind of the the strong thing to do and I said really like would you would you do that and he went no no I'd probably chicken out and so I think there was a sort of moment of honesty where you kind of go it's it's very easy to tell everyone else what looks sort of obvious from the sidelines. I mean, Boris Johnson, you know, famously got his snap election and a big majority. Yes, he was up against Corbyn.

26:52Andy Burnham:I'm sure that played a big part in the sort of choices that people were making at the time. But he secured that with a very quick election. He took over in July and we went to the polls on the, I think it was the 13th of December 2019. Right. So within, what's that, four months? Yeah. Five months. I mean, with with a very short lead time into that election, which sort of, you know, scared the bejesus out of all of us. Right. In the depths of winter, still managed to do it. I mean, I guess the question is, you're trying to work out why you are asking people to go to the polls. It's all very well us sitting here sort of politically going, oh, well, it would shore him up, you know, make him stronger.

27:35Andy Burnham:But you have to have a reason to go to the polls. You have to have a question for the electorate. Boris Johnson had a very simple, taught question, which is, do you want to get Brexit done? And frankly, the phrasing of that was, well, we want to get Brexit behind us, whether that's done or just out of the news or just never talked about again. It worked as a slogan because it was the thing that people wanted to see done. What is the question that Andy Burnham takes to the country, which is not just, could you make me feel good about my own position? Because that's not enough of a question to ask the electorate, right?

28:10Jon Sopel:The unique thing about Andy Burnham, and you can't stress it enough, is that he did not stand on the 2024 Labour manifesto. He was not a candidate in the 2024 election. And if he wants to feel that he is liberated from the commitments that Keir Starmer made, then maybe he does think I need to get my own mandate because I don't want to be the person who's accused of ripping up Labour's election promises. but I never said I'd promise them. And that is, you know, Boris Johnson was an MP. You know, all the other people we've talked about, Theresa May, you know, John Major, they were all MPs at the time.

28:51Andy Burnham:Yeah, but it comes back to the same question that I'm asking, which is Andy Burnham can't go to the country and say, oh, can you give me a mandate? You have to go to the country and say, this is what I want to do. Say, do you agree? Will you vote for me if I offer X? Yeah. And that's the point. What is that X then? I mean, is devolution enough? Has it got to be a firmer offering than that? Because he's not really saying, as Keir Starmer could do, I'm going to get rid of 14 years of Tory pain. He's not going to say I'm going to get rid of the last two years of Labour indecision. That's not quite enough of an offering because he's already there.

29:28Andy Burnham:So the question is, what does he take to the voters that makes them feel like yes to Labour, yes to Burnham?

29:36Jon Sopel:Well, we didn't get anything. I mean, look, that speech was a really interesting in terms of him setting out a framework of how he thinks Britain should be governed. But the questions about, you know, child benefit, the triple lock, you know, he's not addressing that now. If you're going to an election manifesto, people are going to say, how is this going to affect my bank balance? How is this going to affect my kids' education and their prospects? And that's where they will want specifics. And I just don't think that Andy Burnham is at that stage yet. Or if, you know, maybe there is a blueprint.

30:11Jon Sopel:Maybe there are ideas that have been sketched out. But I think that, you know, this has all happened unbelievably fast. I mean, really unbelievably fast that he is now the next prime minister.

30:23Andy Burnham:Very fast and also very slow, because we were talking about this happening nearly a year ago in September, when we imagined that that would be the putsch, right? We talked about it coming at the Labour Party conference.

30:38Jon Sopel:And then we all laughed at Andy Burnham when he skulked off back to Manchester, having been sent away with a flea in his ear.

30:45Andy Burnham:Well, I mean, it came because he'd clearly set the hairs running at that point. He did that big interview with Tom McTague and the New Statesman. He arguably slightly tarnished his copybook over comments about the bond market and he was sort of scared back into the shadows. But I think in a way it hasn't been quick. It has been a year in the coming. As I said, you know, last week, there has been an inexorability to this. It just feels, what's that lovely phrase, slowly and then all at once. And now we're at the all at once. To go back to your point, which was about sort of consensual politics, I do think there's something really interesting afoot here as well, which is that Kemi Badenock offered Keir Starmer her support with welfare reform.

31:35Andy Burnham:I mean, famously, the welfare reform that never happened. Arguably, the welfare reforms that sunk Keir Starmer because they didn't take off. I wonder whether she would be as forthcoming with a Burnham premiership. And I say that because there was this kind of unspoken secret, I think, between the two main parties when reform seemed to be such a threat to both of them, that the Tories and Labour could do better by working together to prove to the electorate that the old parties could still get things done, that they could still be effective, that they shouldn't let reform and farage in the door.

32:17Andy Burnham:I now think that it's a very different landscape and people have predicted the death of Farage and his parties many, many times. So I'm not going to sort of go down that level. But I do genuinely think to your point about the interviews last week, he was spooked by that. He is still waiting to find out from the Parliamentary Standards Commissioner whether he has to forego a period as MP. And if it comes back against him, if it finds against him that he shouldn't have received this£5 million donation without declaring it, then it is possible even that he could face a recall in his own constituency in Clacton.

33:00Andy Burnham:Does that mean you and me can go back to Clacton? We can get the fish and chips again. Scampion chips. We can go and sit on the beach in Clacton. I mean, we don't know how much time Farage has genuinely spent in Clacton. And we don't know how wedded he is to staying as the MP for Clacton. But we might see within the next few days, this will come to another pretty speedy head, right? If 10 % of the electorate of Clacton decide that they want to have a recall, then he has to fight that by-election all over again.

33:30Jon Sopel:I think it's absolutely fascinating. I think that, you know, people have always said that. I mean, look, we've seen it with Farage where he has in the past suddenly said, right, I'm leaving the stage. So does a Ben Stokes midway through a cricket session announces he's retiring his captaincy. I think it's perfectly possible that if Farage is found against by this inquiry by the parliamentary commissioner, that Farage say, right, I'm not fighting it. I'm off. And so that changes, I think, again. You know, when we were saying a few months ago and reform was riding high in the polls, it's a long way to a general election.

34:11Jon Sopel:And I think that, you know, this is a marathon for Nigel Farage, not a sprint. It was really interesting that David Bull, who was the chairman of reform until relatively recently, had these words of advice for Mr Farage. He claims that he's not claimed any expenses. He's had over 100 ,000. David, what do you think of this idea that when you look into a reform party meeting, it's like the bar room in The Empire Strikes Back? What does that mean? Well, it's a bunch of sort of... Oh, I see, misfits. Misfits, yeah, that's Martin's point. I don't think so. I've been there since the beginning with Richard Tice, for example.

34:46I'm very proud of what we've done. And what we're now doing is professionalising the party. The party's bigger than Nigel. The party is way bigger than Nigel.

34:54Andy Burnham:What does that mean, then? Does it mean that they are preparing for the worst, preparing for him to take himself off and say, to your point, the Stokes moment, you know, I'm done with this. I don't need this anymore. And I guess have to say we can still shore up the vote. We can still shore up the party without him at the helm. But it would be a very, a very different prospect, I think. I mean, Rupert Lowe, for one, would be delighted to see Nigel Farage go from that. I mean, we are we are probably getting way ahead of ourselves. But the reason that we're raising this is just that Daniel Greenberg, the parliamentary commissioner, is going to come back within the next few days.

35:32Andy Burnham:And so this could become quite a live issue over the weeks ahead. And I think all this will play into the bigger picture of what do the Tories think about an early election? Kemi Badenok was very cautious not to call for on because she's doing pretty well. You know, she is seeing her fortunes, if not her party's fortunes change. She is starting to really make headway. But she doesn't want to go too early. You know, she'd much prefer to wait for the burn and bounce to be over, presumably, and on the way down and then go, right, I'm here. I'll pick up the pieces.

36:09Jon Sopel:Exactly. I think that's so true. Also, just going back to what David Bull said, that the party is bigger than Nigel Farage. You don't think it is. Well, you know, it's like when Republicans in the States say the Republican Party is bigger than Donald Trump. Well, not right now it isn't. And, you know, when Donald Trump isn't there and he's opposing, it's a real problem. And if Nigel Farage, you know, just think of the way the 2024 election was transformed in that moment when Nigel Farage announced that he was going to stand. And I bet you that contributed towards probably six or seven points, forget Clacton, but around the country with people thinking I'm going to revoke reform now because Farage is back in the race.

36:53Jon Sopel:He commands an enormous amount of public support. I think that the Reform Party, if it is Richard Tice, does not look as anything like as big without him.

37:05Andy Burnham:we'll be back in a moment talking about a curious row in the home office and what that might do to some of the runners and riders

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38:00Britain is heading for a summer of chaos. We have a caretaker prime minister, barely in office, definitely not in power. All major policy and spending decisions have been put on hold. The last defence secretary resigned because the money needed to keep Britain safe has not been found. Ministers of the Home Office are fighting each other. In fact, the immigration minister has been banned from seeing government documents.

38:33Jon Sopel:That is not hyperbole from Kembe Badenock. There is the most extraordinary kind of unfolding. It's like the glue that has bound a government together has suddenly dissolved and everyone's going their own way and thinking, I can do whatever I like. It's like the teacher has left the classroom and all the pupils are thinking, whoopie d i can do what i like and so we had this extraordinary scene last week where the immigration minister mike tapp unveils his thoughts on what should happen about indefinite leave to remain in this country and it was not home office policy so shibana mahout the home secretary says he's got to be sacked you can't do things like that and keir starmer says well i'm not going to sack him And you're just thinking, what is going on in the government right now?

39:21Andy Burnham:Yeah, I think it does play into the point that we were making earlier, which is these are not normal times. So you can't pretend really that everything can go on as usual. I mean, in a way, it's weirder to have the wheels of government turning as if nothing had changed, you know, as if a policy was coming in, as if a sort of a spending announcement was coming in. Because we know if you talk to anyone in or around Whitehall or Number 10, they'll say that this is a paralysis, right? You can't have a spending commitment. You can't have a policy. You can't really have an announcement because it could all be undone within two weeks.

39:56Andy Burnham:So what are they actually doing? And I guess the answer is, well, arguing with each other. I mean, you know, is Mike Tapp right to say he wants a change to Shabana's immigration policy? well maybe he's thinking that she won't be his boss for long because she's going to move somewhere else and maybe he's thinking well I might come in and get that job so I want to lay out you know my claims to what it should look like early he writes for the Times she doesn't sign it off and you've got this sort of almighty row but in essence this is just I think the mechanics of what is going on anyway in the ether which is sorry who's in charge and what is going to happen.

40:35Jon Sopel:But it is not a way I mean, the country is still being run by Keir Starmer, allegedly. He is still the prime minister. There is still collective cabinet responsibility until there is a change of government. And the idea that a minister will just kind of completely go off on one. And, you know, it's an intellectually interesting idea that he's talking about. And it's in clear opposition to what Shabana Mahmood wants. But you can't have that as the kind of way to operate right now. and then to say, Shibana Mahmood says, right, he's got to be fired and then the Prime Minister says, no, it's fine.

41:11Jon Sopel:And what you've got is people just laying out their own stall. They're just thinking, not about the collective of the government, they're thinking about, what's my next job going to be? I could get a promotion here. I think Andy Burnham might like this. So why don't I lay out my, you know, my frilly underwear and see if Andy Burnham's attracted to it.

41:30Andy Burnham:Look, literally at the moment, you've got a whole cabinet who doesn't know what their next job will be, or even if they will have a next job in this government. A week ago, this time last week, actually it was the Tuesday of last week, I was told that David Miliband was very much in the running for Foreign Secretary. And I kind of like, we sort of chatted it over together. We were like, that doesn't sound right. And how could he come back in? And would he really be the right one for the job? And actually, over the last sort of three days or so, that has started to sort of take shape. It feels a bit stronger.

42:04Andy Burnham:I mean, there is there is still a chance that it that he could come back in the cabinet, maybe not as foreign secretary, maybe as a Europe minister, sort of a reinvigorated Europe minister trying to help Burnham sort of shape a sort of post Brexit or, you know, a sort of EU role for relations with Europe. up. I've also, and I should say this, this comes with a big caveat because Andy Burnham very sensibly didn't take any questions at the end, as you pointed out, because he didn't want to be asked who his chancellor was. But inevitably, those conversations are still going on. And so everything that we're saying at the moment comes with huge caveats, which is that he is probably still making up his mind.

42:47Andy Burnham:And maybe the people that are the runners and riders have not actually signed up to anything yet because they're still wanting to hear from him. But from somebody who was, who is right at the centre of things, I've heard a few interesting rumblings, which I'll run through and you can sort of treat them as you choose. Lucy Powell could be going to education. Louise Hague, very likely to be chief secretary to Andy Burnham and that Rachel Reeves has kind of accepted that she won't be in the chancellor job anymore, you know, finally, and is now lobbying to go to trade. The big question of the Chancellor, still the most central one, still up in the air, but, you know, could actually be looking more like Ed Miliband.

43:35Andy Burnham:I think they've been right through the houses, you know, we've been through the kind of Shabana Mahmood, we've been through the Pat McFadden, we've been through the John Healy. But actually, there is an argument which says, if Andy Burnham works closest with Ed Miliband and he is at the centre of his policy thinking, then you just go, fuck it. Let's get on with it.

43:55Jon Sopel:I bet you some of you are thinking you're talking bollocks. Andy Burnham has made clear that he's not going to do any announcements and that will come at a much later stage. And everyone's just speculating wildly and doesn't know what they're talking about, which is a perfectly reasonable view to take of what Emily's just said. On the other hand, you know, I've spoken to cabinet ministers who have had conversations with Andy Burnham, who have had been given some reassurance about their role in the next government. So, you know, we may not have firmly tied down who's getting what jobs. But clearly, Andy Burnham is preparing.

44:32Jon Sopel:the question of the chancellorship i think is fascinating because i'm speaking to people who are mounting a rearguard action that says if the britain's greatest problem is its borrowing costs then the best thing you could do is to keep rachel reeves in place as chancellor should we shake on that one no no i but i also i'm also hearing that you know because there was a the backlash from some public sector unions about ed milliband becoming the next chancellor because of his stance on net zero on oil and gas there is now also a lot of people's talking up ed milliband and as for david milliband and of course it would be you know god will the psychodrama come back the milliband brothers could they work together i think distinctly yes and i'm you know uh kind of previously you know milliband david milliband has said oh no it's you know i'm in new york this is

45:23Andy Burnham:my future I'm staying in New York he's had to maintain that for about 15 years yeah that's no longer the case yeah I mean he was asked about it here when he was in London last week and he just said that's for Andy Burnham now if anything sounded like you know an open goal it's that's for Andy Burnham I mean I guess the big question is how does um a man who said I want to rip up the last 40 years they haven't done any good then recreate the sort of cabinet of insiders which is the band back together, whether it's James Purnell, Ed Miliband, David Miliband, Alan Milburn, who he sort of tipped again in his speech today, who did all the work on NEATS.

46:04Andy Burnham:Are you actually recreating something that feels like the sort of the Brown cabinet without Brown?

46:10Jon Sopel:The Brown Blair cabinet. Look, the thing about it is that I thought there was something else that happened in that speech today. Maybe I'm reading too much into it, But he wasn't talking about 40 years of failure in the speech today. He was talking about 18 years of failure. He was talking about the moment from the financial crash and he talked about Brexit. Those were the moments when Britain stopped working for the British people. So it's like he'd refined. He thought, oh, Christ, that 40 years, that covers the period when I was. I'll drop that bit because that that says that, you know, the period from 1997 to 2010, when there were three successive Labour governments was a total failure.

46:46Jon Sopel:I better wipe that one from the memory books. It's only 18 years of failure that we're dealing with.

46:51Andy Burnham:Yeah. So forgive us if we are just quietly voicing some of our bets here. We will know more in the weeks to come.

47:02Jon Sopel:Yeah. So stay with us over the next few weeks. After that, you can dump us. Yeah, it's fine. A burst pipe. A dead water heater. The AC calling it quits. Who do you call? HomeServe is an easy way to handle unexpected home repairs. With plans covering stuff basic homeowner's insurance usually won't. Instead of scrambling for a contractor, you make one call to get the repair process started. Join the millions of customers who trust HomeServe right now. Go to homeserve.com slash podcast for 50 % less your first year. That's homeserve.com slash podcast. Savings compared to renewal price void in Florida.

47:37Bye. Bye for now. This has been a global production.