Can Zack Polanski win Keir Starmer's old seat?

0:02This is a global production. I do think that if Zack Polanski had refused to stand without an extraordinarily good reason, which right now escapes me, then that would have kind of been the end of him. And I also think that if he stands and loses, then it is probably the end of him as the Green Party leader. There are enormous swings happen in by-elections. It just feels that sometimes you get a sense that that there is a party with enormous momentum and it's unstoppable and they are going to win a by-election. Given the summer that the Green Party has had, it does not feel that they have that momentum.

0:37He will argue and say, I think, send a message to this government which doesn't much like London and doesn't much care for London. And if he were to win or come really close, then that would change the whole calculus of the Burnham government. This is a real test, actually, for whether Zach Polanski survives the next bit of this political cycle. So I think either way, this is high stakes. Tomorrow you can really send a message. We are rejecting the politics of hate and division. And instead, we are embracing a politics of hope with a plan to change people's lives for the better. That was from a video posted last night by Zach Polanski, who today has announced that he hopes to be the candidate to fight Keir Starmer's old seat in North London.

1:28So has Andy Burnham managed to solidly win back disillusioned progressives and see off the Greens? Or will this define the electoral landscape now of the left? Welcome to the News Agents.

1:46The News Agents. It's television's John Sopel.

1:53How we love. We're going to explain that in a moment. No, we're not. Yes, we are. John, it turns out. John is moonlighting on a Sunday morning. What a terrible time to moonlight. What an absolute quizzling. No, but it's good to have the support of your colleagues. That's fine. You're going to need a very good producer on Sunday to not make mistakes like that. I haven't had one of those for a long time, have I? Yeah, no, no. Right, it's Maitlis. And it's Lewis. I'm not saying another word now. As John was talking about, initially incorrectly, Isaac Polanski has confirmed this morning that he will stand in Keir Starmer's, now old seat of Hoban and St Pancras.

2:29He had long, this was basically the big question when Starmer announced it on Monday, pretty unhelpfully for Andy Burnham, setting up the first by-election of Burnham's tenure in what could be pretty fertile territory for the Green Party. The instant speculation was whether Polanski would stand or not. He had previously said that he wanted to stand in a London constituency and that if one became vacant, then he would contest it. Of course, it's not necessarily the most comfortable timing, even though it is comfortable terrain, because since the green high watermark, the zenith earlier in the year, Andy Burnham, since he's become prime minister, has been taking green votes.

3:05And now they're about eight or nine percent or so. And on paper, Keir Starmer's old constituency of Hobart and St Pancras is and should be a pretty safe Labour seat. Luke Trill, the pollster, has given us his assessment of the constituency. Just listen to this. This was already going to be a fascinating by-election because of what it would have told us about the electoral battle for the left of British politics. Those disillusioned progressives who had left the Labour Party under Keir Starmer and who had started voting Green. Had Andy Burnham really attracted them back, which meant that seats like Hoban and St Pancras, traditionally safe Labour seats were now firmly back in the Labour column.

3:47Had the Green Party leader, Zach Polanski's missteps permanently eroded the party's momentum and mojo, it was going to be a marquee race. But Zach Polanski himself saying he's standing in the contest really does change everything. And if you want proof of that, you just have to look at some of the other contests this year. the make-a-feel by-election on every partisan or demographic measure that should have been a reform game. And yet Andy Burnham upended the contest. If we look at Clacton, obviously that was unusual in that it wasn't contested by the main parties. But the fact that 22 ,000 people turned out to vote for Nigel Farage in the middle of summer, and actually 10 ,000 people turned out the other way, almost 10 ,000 to vote for Count Binface, shows you again the power of having a particular candidate in a local by-election.

4:47And now it looks like Hoban and St Pancras is going to join that list. Zach Polanski is clearly going to electrify the race. I suspect turnout, as we've seen in these other high-profile contests, is going to be higher than usual for a by-election. And whilst I might have said prior to Zach Polanski getting in that Labour were the favourites because of that green dip and Labour rise, I now think this is a by-election where there really is everything to play for. I do love the idea of a marquee race. It makes it sound far more exciting than a North London by-election. It sounds like the 650 at Weatherby.

5:25It sounds really good, unmissable. I was thinking about this when we first heard that Starmer was resigning on Tuesday, on Andy Burnham's big day. And it seemed to me then that Zach Polanski didn't really have a choice because having made it very obvious and having put already on record that he wanted to stand in a London seat, yes, he would have liked Hackney more, he would have liked home turf Hackney even more, but it's not that far away, frankly, from Hackney to sort of Hoburn to say, oh, I'm afraid that's just not my neck of the woods. I do think that if Zach Polanski had refused to stand without an extraordinarily good reason, which right now escapes me, then that would have kind of been the end of him.

6:10And I also think that if he stands and loses, then it is probably the end of him as the Green Party leader, because this is a seat that the Greens should be taking, not easily, easily, but fairly comfortably on a good night. And so I think that this is a real test, actually, for whether Zach Polanski survives the next bit of this political cycle. Yeah. And he's given a statement to the Camden New Journal this morning, which is the local, your local paper, my local newspaper, saying. You'll have a column in there next for your media activities at the moment. It's not television, Lewis. I think, Lewis, there's a little bit of touchiness that we need to work out after this recording.

6:50A little bit. Much after. But he's given this statement to the local paper saying, I've always, you know, I lived for a long time in this area. I know it well. It's my natural hope. You know, so he's trying to play up his kind of credentials for this particular constituency. At the last election, I mean, Starmer won it easily, getting nearly 50 percent of the vote. But there was an independent called Andrew Feinstein who stood, who was going for the disaffected left vote, who came second. and the Greens came third and their combined vote was within sort of 7 ,000 of what Keir Starmer got. So it's not...

7:27And his share of the vote was reduced quite substantially. Exactly, exactly. So it's, you know, look, there are enormous swings happen in by-elections. It just feels that sometimes you get a sense that there is a party with enormous momentum and it's unstoppable and they are going to win a by-election. At the moment, you'd have to say that given the summer that the Green Party has had, it does not feel that they have that momentum. And yes, Zach Polanski's name is on the ticket. And I think that isn't yet. Well, he hopes it will be. Well, OK, we'll come to that. But let's just say let's just assume for a moment it is.

8:03And I'm sure that will attract a certain number of voters in the constituency to go towards him. But I think it could have an opposite effect as well, that there will be people who will be repelled by him as well. I think this is actually in a year of high stakes by-elections and by-elections which have genuinely altered the political weather, the political climate. I think this is yet another. And the stakes are really high, I think, both for Burnham and for Polanski. As you say, Emily, I think if Polanski stands in this and loses, particularly if he loses badly, I think that's going to be pretty lethal for his authority within the Green Party.

8:41I think that there will be people who the Green Party are always a pretty fractious bunch. And I think that they will say that if he stands and loses here, or at least doesn't come close, that this experiment has failed because he does have enemies within the Green Party. He always represented a part of the Green Party on the kind of economically populist left, which was a rather sort of Corbynite left if you like which was part of the Green Party but historically the kind of smaller wing so I think that would be very dangerous for him but for Burnham too I mean let's I mean I think if Palancey's smart I would not be surprised at all he is smart I would not be surprised at all that he doesn't just run on environmental issues on rent on Gaza which will be a big big issue in this constituency but he'll also I wouldn't be surprise, run potentially as Mr London.

9:26Burnham is Mr Manchester. He's come in on this Northern ticket, politics anchored and centred around the red wall. What did he say? He said, I would apply the Makerfield test to everything that I do. I think Polanski will say, well, he's going to apply the Hoban and St Pancras test. He's going to apply the London test. And he has pedigree as a London politician. He will argue and say, I think, send a message to this government, which doesn't much like London and doesn't much care for London. And if he were to win or come really close, then that would change the whole calculus of the Burnham government.

9:59First of all, it would stem his momentum significantly. And you would have MPs of whom there are scores and scores in the PLP in Greater London, in Bristol, in Birmingham, in other places in the south of England and the Midlands who say, actually, we've overcorrected here and our seats are in danger and that it will change, change potentially the trajectory of the politics of the Burnham government. So I think either way, this is high stakes. I have to say, I can't see him going on a anti-Manchester ticket, particularly. I can see that reform would choose that. I could see that the Conservatives would choose that.

10:36You know, have you forgotten the greatest city on earth, which is kind of where they want to position Burnham and the fact that he keeps popping back up north and isn't really sort of looking at London with the prestige that they think it deserves. But what we know from Zach Polanski so far is that he wants to sort of fight not just this by-election, but his sort of party's campaign on a rip-off Britain sort of thing. or, you know, why are we in hock to big business? Why are we in hock to big corporates and we shouldn't be paying this much? I think all that felt easier under Starmer. And if you go back to the local elections, which obviously feels like a lifetime away because they were fought under Starmer and we know that that's massively changed the Labour Party, but they were still won quite comfortably then by Labour in that borough, in that constituency.

11:36But what happened during the locals was that the Greens teamed up with a local alliance. I think it was called the Camden Alliance, the Camden's People Alliance, who were, again, disaffected Labour, disaffected left, and they joined the Greens. So there is a sense that we don't quite know the true spirit of where that support for the Greens could come from if people are still feeling angry with Labour in the same way they were back in May. But I don't know that they are as much. I think there are more people who are saying, well, let's just see where this is going because Burnham is not Starmer and he doesn't have the baggage of actually, frankly, quite so much establishment.

12:18Fair enough. During the local elections, I went to a Hustings one night and there were all the party candidates there. And there was a sense, you know a lot of the kind of questions to the Green Party were quite hostile saying you know shouldn't you be more worried about the local environment and bin collection and all those sort of issues and less about Gaza and obviously there are those people in the hall who were saying well no Gaza is terribly important and it's vital that we campaign on this as well and so that sense that the Green Party you know and you sense that with Zach Polanski that he has tacked back towards core green issues, particularly after the hot summer and, you know, drought and all the rest of it and global warming, to be talking about those green issues, which were traditionally the bread and butter and which left.

13:08But I think the Gaza stuff left some people, you know, feeling quite uncomfortable in the Green Party. But also gave him momentum for the first six months of his premiership. And I just think that, you know, there was a sort of clearly enormous momentum shift after the Gorton and Denton by-election, which kind of I think was a high watermark. and then it's felt that the waters have receded quite quickly since then as more and more questions have gone towards that waters around zach polanski's houseboat for example exactly which you know whether these were uncomfortable questions just as nigel farage has faced uncomfortable questions if you aspire to political leadership in this country don't be surprised if tough questions come your way about the way you've organized your finances and where you've declared things and where you voted and whether you were right to do so i mean i think there's also questions about, and this is a sort of early test again, in terms of how Burnham handles his opponents and how they treat, even Polanski's the candidate, then how they treat Polanski during this campaign.

14:07How negative, how rough are they with him? And particularly some of these allegations and stories which swirled around up to the local elections. Does the Kambaya routine of Andy Burnham, where he has generally been less visceral in his political attacks than the Starmer operation was on reform or the Greens. Does he change that? Does the Labour Party corporately change that? Is there a risk if you do that, highlighting his progressive positions on things that actually in this pretty progressive constituency, you actually push people into the green column? Look, I think the Labour Party will clearly be the favourites.

14:41It's a constituency that has basically been Labour forever. They've got superb data on it. Council elections were bad, but they weren't catastrophic. But again, Burnham will desperately want to win this. And the Labour Party will desperately want to win this because he will be looking to it as an example of what has Burnham been good at in these early months. Well, one of the reasons that he's gained in the polls is because he has united more of the left bloc. He has taken votes away again from the Greens. And if he can defeat Polanski here, and if I'm right, which I think I am, that that will basically probably hobble Polanski permanently.

15:15Then that will be an enormous advantage going into any general election whenever it comes, because Polanski, for all of his problems, has been easily the most effective campaigner and leader that the Green Party has ever had. We corrected you a second ago when we said that, you know, Polanski's on the ticket because in the way that the Green Party work, he technically isn't. He has to submit his name. The Green Party itself then have this very democratic system where they decide whether they want their own leader to stand for the seat that they're trying to win. My guess is they will probably agree that, you know, it is worth a shot.

15:46If he can't exercise his authority to stand, he might as well pack up and go home. But the person that we think he'll be standing against in that seat is the leader of Camden Council for Labour, which is Sagal Abdiwali. And she is or has been pretty close to Starmer. She was previously chairman, chairwoman, chair of the constituency Labour Party. She came to the UK as a child refugee from Somalia. This was back in the early 90s. and when it appeared that she would be the frontrunner, Zia Youssef, like literally the jack-in-the-box of reform, pops up and says, The frontrunner, being foisted on the people of Hoburn by Labour to replace the former Prime Minister in our Parliament, was born in Somalia.

16:36Do you understand what's happening? That was his tweet. Do you understand what's happening? We used to call that sort of dog whistle. But I honestly think sort of like you could take that to the nearest retirement home. They'd all hear that pretty darn loudly and easily. I wonder whether him getting involved in that way. I mean, obviously, it will do wonders for reform. Oh, Somalians coming over here, standing for parliament, getting elected. I mean, foisted is another wonderful word, isn't it? I think the Labour Party just, you know, decides to put on the ballot the person that they think of as the frontrunner.

17:16And they need to get elected. They need to get elected. I'm not sure that's foisted. But I don't know what that will do. Maybe nothing. But or will it actually sort of, you know, will it draw people who might have been Greens, right? Who might have been Camden People's Alliance, who might have been on the disaffected left to kind of go, So actually, you know, we do we do want to support a party that seems to be putting a former child refugee, a Somalian born woman who's made it this far on the ballot in the seat ourselves. Right. The use of tweet sort of just kind of leaves you scratching your head.

17:52Do you understand what's happening? Yeah. Someone who's come to this country, has British citizenship, has committed themselves to public life, is standing for parliament. And what's your point? You know, oh, it's Somalia. Is that what we say? Somalia. Oh, OK, I understand. He's looking for a slippery slope. You know, as soon as the whole of London will be overrun by Somali MPs. Yeah, exactly. It's as if it's Ilhan Omar. It's the squad. Why don't you go back to where you came from? Which is more or less what Donald Trump said to her. And I think it's, you know, look, she's a British citizen. She's committed herself to public life.

18:28You might disagree with our politics. And a lot of people do. Well, he's probably done her enormous favour. I would imagine now that the Labour Party, what would have been, I think, a real scrap to get this safe seat. I would imagine that he's done her prospects, no harm whatsoever with the local Labour Party. And look, you know, we talked about the make-a-feel by-election where it was a fight between Labour and reform. It's not going to be a fight between Labour and reform in Hoban and St Pancras. Reform came, I think, sixth or seventh in the general election. It's not natural reform territory, is it?

19:01Not natural reform territory. You're doing your best, soaps. But, you know, there's only one man can do it. Are there many reform voters in Chalk Farm? Not so many. No, no. I mean, of course, there is still a possibility. I mean, this would be a ridiculous outcome. But as you say, Emily, the Green Party is highly democratic. According to a report or some reporting from Noah Hoffman, The Spectator, there is some unhappiness within local green circles about the idea of Polanski being parachuted in, although it wouldn't be much of a parachute because he doesn't live very far away. It's more of a bus ride, I think.

19:29I think it's more of a bus ride. I think it's number 16. You don't need paratroopers to take you in. No, no, no. She had some reporting or some WhatsApp messages from the local sort of group, which said, among other things, that this seat has a 50 % BAME population. It should be represented by someone who understands these communities. And someone else said it would be nice for once to have a global majority representative and also a true anti-Zionist. Wait, so he's too white and Jewish. Is that what we're hearing now? Or insufficiently anti-Scientist. So you can choose between somebody who's too Somali or somebody who's too white.

20:04So global majority. Sorry, that's a phrase that's new to me. It usually basically means people from the global south. When you say picking the head of the UN, you're like, oh, well, we shouldn't just look at Italy. We should look at the whole world. But I think when you're talking about Camden and Hoburn and St. Bankers, I think it's probably okay. Yes. I mean, someone said that it's terrible the way selections in our party are often run. It's often a passive process rather than proactive. We know women and people of colour need encouragement and support to put themselves forward. Maybe the Green Party will actually vote for the Labour candidate then.

20:38Yes, maybe. That's something the Green Party would. Everyone's sorted. But I mean, this is the thing with the Greens. I mean, it sounds ridiculous because all people in political parties are very political, right? but they are the most hyper political and they have taken in a tranche of people who were part of the Corbynite wing of the Labour Party. And it's a fractious bunch sometimes. And I think that's one of the stories of Polanski's leadership is that he has struggled in this party, which is centrally extremely weak. I mean, let's remember at one point they didn't even have speakers, didn't have leaders.

21:08They had principal speakers. And at one point they had co-leaders because they didn't want to sort of mirror the sort of traditional hierarchical structures of society and so on. And so they eventually move to leaders, but it's a very weak central position and it isn't easy to execute a leader's will in that situation. Emily, you said something at the top, which I thought was really interesting, which was he had to run. I mean, he couldn't if he had if he had decided not to, then that would have been seen as cowardice or a kind of an admission that his leadership has got nowhere in the party. And I think that's just such a I think a lot of people won't have thought of it in those particular terms.

21:44that have just thought, oh, ambitious man, he wants to get a London seat. Often in politics, you think you have a choice. You don't really. You know, we were talking about this in terms of the US presidential candidates for the Democrats. A lot of people will think, oh, well, so-and-so is too young. They won't stand this time. If you don't stand this time, you're probably talking about an eight-year wait. Who's got an eight-year wait in their life, right? And so actually, I think it is incumbent upon him to run. I think he's realised that he has no choice. and I think it's going to be quite dirty, actually, because...

22:17I actually disagree. I think it would have been wiser not to run. I think he could have made an excuse. I think he could have sidestepped it. He could have used the Green Party stuff, you know, stuff which is, I'm not going to impose myself. I think we should have a woman who's got colour. We should have this, that or the other. Well, he may yet find himself in a place where he doesn't run. Yeah, indeed. Just because I think it's really, this is such a bad moment for him. I mean, just at the point when you've got Burnham who's come in, this high watermark, it's really risky. Now, it's a gamble and who knows, it might pay off and fair play to him if it does.

22:44But as I say, I think the risk for him, and maybe he's decided in a way... What are you going to do there as a leader? Like just sit around waiting for... Well, there could be a general election in 12 months. There could be, you know, there's plenty of things he can be getting on with. If he was, he is, I think, risking his leadership. Now, he might not decide that he's not too bothered about that and maybe that will be the end for him anyway. But it's a risky position I think he could have avoided, albeit it would have taken some elegance. sides yeah but look if having having done this he has to be the candidate i mean if if the green party say no sorry zach don't fancy you as the candidate i mean he really is royally screwed and that's that's that isn't it so which of him on our respective sunday shows this weekend which of us will be interviewing him john do you reckon i'm not prepared to i'm not prepared to discuss this i can tell you this for nothing zach plansky is not coming with me to the venice film festival oh and what are you doing at the Venice Film Festival most news agents moment ever ridiculous who are you okay so there's a possibility a possibility that Lewis and I will be fighting over Zach Polanski who are you with this weekend?

23:48George Clooney we'll be back after the break

23:59oh my gosh you can't be serious You think making the pick is the hard part? No, it's not. The pick takes like three seconds. You know what's hard? The sweat. The time between locking in and cashing out. Yeah, you have a take. But in the end, it's not about the winners or losers. This is about us, man. Whether we're brave enough to sit through it. Don't fight the sweat. Live in it. Because you are an underdog. Underdog. Unleash your dog. Terms may apply.

24:38I'm sure it's important to us, what the Spiegel TV or whatever wants to do here. We don't let us be here. We stay straight away and let us take the focus. The focus is Germany, dear friends. A thought that is true, can't be done again. And that's what happens. We don't let us be done again.