Did Trump just kill off Europe's most powerful populist?

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0:33This is a Global Player original podcast. It's unbelievable. Since I've been a young child, since I was 10 years old, we have been under the regime of Orban. We are free right now. We're really proud and like our generation because we change everything. We hope that this is a new start for Hungary. I have a future. I'm so happy. It's five to midnight and we're on the streets of Budapest in what feels like Europe's biggest street party. Tisa has just won the Hungarian election with a resounding success. They've sent Viktor Orban packing after 16 years. What does it mean for the godfather of populism to be out on his knees?

1:15What does it mean for other populists around Europe? Should they start worrying now too? Welcome to the newsagents.

1:28The News Agents. It's John. It's Maitlis. And it took just four minutes and 15 seconds for Hungary's Viktor Orban to end that 16-year stronghold on Hungary. I guess some would say on the EU, some would say on Europe itself. It came just after 9.15 last night when this authoritarian godfather of European populism took to the stage and he conceded the election. And the fact that he received praise for even legitimising this result, passing the torch of power, I think speaks to the iron grip that he had over democratic norms in this country, because many were expecting dirty tricks, resistance, a Trumpian refusal to recognise the outcome.

2:19and earlier on we had been with TISA, the opposition party's supporters. They were starting to gather along the banks of the Danube at TISA's headquarters and when we arrived early on in the night, just after the polls had closed, we found it quite mooted, we found it quite tense and we were expecting them to be more excited, more anticipating victory and when we talked to people they just said no, we're scared. We're scared that even if we get a win tonight, we won't see a concession. And I think that feeling, that sort of sense lingered until the moment, which came extraordinarily early soaps, literally 9.15 in the evening.

3:06Orban concedes and suddenly the streets just come alive. And as people start hearing the news, it feels like not just a sort of change of PM. It feels like the beginning of a revolution. It feels like, you know, a wall has come down. A referendum has been won. It feels like tangible change in the whole mood of the city of Budapest. and we head down to find some of the young people. And this has, in Budapest, been a victory for the young who have been pushing for change. When you ask people what they want to change, they say everything, 180 degree change. And we found people on the streets wrapping themselves in the EU flag or waving the LBGTQ pride flag.

3:57You know that gay rights in this country have been really, really confined and hurt by Orbán's Hungary. And suddenly there was just this sense in the air that anything was possible. So we stopped to speak to a few. This is unbelievable. Since I've been a young child, since I was 10 years old, we have been under the regime of Orbán. And we are now extremely happy that we could overthrow this government within democratic limits. And now we could celebrate democracy within Europe. It's unbelievable. What will change for Hungary? We will join the EU principles, we will share the common values with Europe, we will abandon the Russian way, we will abandon the Eastern way and we could again be a precious part of the European community.

4:51We are celebrating that our government has been overcome by the opposition. And what does it mean for Hungary? Yeah, we hope that this is a new start for Hungary because we believe that we voted for Europe, we voted for democracy and that everything will be better. We are free right now. The Tise is born, so we are free right now. What does it mean though when you say free? Free from what? What changes? Actually, the previous party, Fidesz, has been the worst. Racism, we couldn't have pride, everything. We weren't free. So we can have our own thoughts. You've got Hungarian cheeks tonight. Your flag.

5:52yeah it is a flag yes yes and this is also the flag so and you're proud you're proud of the hungarian flag we're really proud and like our generation because we changed everything so we went and did this so we're really proud i have a future i'm so happy yeah i mean really joyous scenes there emily that you captured uh last night by the danube i should say that i went to my coffee shop this morning and the barista is hungarian and she was nearly in tears about last night's election result because i'd spoken to her last week and said i just don't believe it i think orban will find a way of clinging on presumably a very different mood at orban hq yeah and they really didn't believe it because that speech was so somber and short and terse it was kind of over before they could understand what he'd said.

6:49And it was, I think, the speech of a man who was a knackered, you know, he's been in power for 16 years. Before that, he'd served for earlier. So, I mean, he's done 20 years in power. But I think it was also the speech, not just of defeat, but of the utterly defeated. He saw the size of Magyar's victory last night. and as I speak about I think 90 % of the votes have been counted they're still waiting for some of the ballots from overseas but it's estimated that Maggiel will take around 138 seats in the 199 seat parliament in other words he's got that crucial two-thirds majority which means not only can he govern alone but he can make major constitutional reforms and so this is starting to sink in as we arrive at the Fidesz headquarters.

7:42And suddenly there is this, frankly, rush to the exit. Some of the faces are tear-stained. Everyone is looking down. I mean, it's sort of, it has the feel of a sort of perp walk. You know, I know that sounds odd, but we were stood outside and there were people trying to dodge the cameras, dodge the journalists, dodge the interviews. They were just sort of heading straight ahead without looking. Anyone that we tried to talk to just did not want to say a word. And this is what the night of victory and then defeat looks like. I mean, the defeated looked absolutely slapped. So can I ask you what you think went wrong tonight?

8:25So can you have a quick word for London tonight? Do you have a quick word for us from London tonight, sir?

8:35Sir, a quick word for the news agents tonight. Can you tell us what went wrong? I don't speak English. What is the feeling tonight? Were you surprised? Disappointing, sure, but I think many consequences need to be drawn and recouping and planning for the future. Do you think Viktor Orban should step down now from the head of the party? I haven't thought about that. I don't know. Do you think he should have stepped down before this election? Why? To give it to another generation? I don't think so. I think we probably would have gone off worse when he would have stepped down. I don't think so. And what do you think it was?

9:16Was it just 16 years or was it corruption? Or was it what? I mean, the young, when you talk to the young, they say they want Hungary to go in a different direction now. Yeah, maybe. Maybe that was that we didn't listen carefully. But I also think that the economy is also, and the whole European Union, is not so very much a good idea right now. And I think that's a big player. But also, yeah, 16 years are 16 years. Will it change Hungary's relationship now with America? Well, you should ask Trump, maybe. So what did go wrong? Well, I guess you could say by any measure that 16 years is too long.

9:55But I think there was something fundamental about the way Orban tried to run his campaign this time around. There are pictures of Zelensky wherever you go in Hungary. He was trying to make this a campaign about foreign policy. He was trying to tell people that the opposition would drag Hungary into war with Ukraine, like literally it would recruit their sons and daughters. And he was trying to connect with America. We'll come on to that. That didn't work. He was trying to isolate himself from the EU. Well, that really didn't work because the EU in the last two years have frozen major economic funds to Hungary because they don't like their democratic backsliding.

10:35And so that has hurt people. And what happened was Magyar came in and he made it. I mean, it's the oldest story in the book. The economy is stupid. He made this election all about affordability, all about take home pay, all about corruption. He just focused single-handedly on the economy. He wouldn't be drawn into questions of foreign policy. And that, I think, was how he reached past, you know, the young, the progressive. They were always going to vote for the opposition. The people of Budapest were always going to go with whoever was the opposition to Orbán. But this time round, it was the people in rural seats that had voted heavily for Fidesz, heavily Orbán, that suddenly looked at the money that was coming in or wasn't coming in and said, yep, we've had enough.

11:17That's that's the end. I think that's so interesting there, Emily, that, you know, and also time for a change after 16 years is also a powerful message. I heard you earlier talking about the LGBTQ flags, you know, among the crowds. But Peter Magyar, who has become the new prime minister, will become the new prime minister. he's not some sort of bleeding heart liberal woke kind of I don't know Barack Obama come Zoramandani come Emmanuel Macron is he he really isn't yeah and I think this is you know this is a night or a day for the victors so I don't want to sort of puncture burst the balloon too quickly but it is quite interesting when you ask people what they like about Peter Magyar they have this sort of furrowed brow look.

12:05They can't actually name the thing that they like, except that he is not Orban. And to put this in context, Magyar was with the Fidesz party. He was at Orban's side. And so many of his policies, many of his inclinations are naturally pretty conservative, naturally maybe much more hardline than certainly the young are expecting. I don't think he's going to massively change Hungary's immigration policies. He hasn't really talked about LGBTQ rights at all. He has said that he wants to become a more central part to the EU. But I think that there will be a slight sort of reawakening when people look and say, well, what is he going to change?

12:48I mean, in the recent past of Hungary, we have had Viktor Orban, who has gone from anti-communist to virtually in bed with Putin. And many blame the fact that his foreign secretary was so close to Lavrov that, you know, a leak that emerged a couple of days ago really sort of sealed the fate for Orban by making it look like they were the party of Putin. But I think it is wrong to try and look at Magyar as, as you say, the sort of great new progressive hope. He isn't. In fact, his ex-wife Judith Varga who was in Orban's cabinet actually accused him of domestic violence. Now many think that is part of a dirty tricks campaign but here you have a woman who was married to the man that will be prime minister who says that he is a domestic abuser.

13:41You know it's not been proven in the courts it hasn't gone to court but I think there are still a lot of questions surrounding the man who's about to become Hungary's prime minister that are really unanswered and for now not really being asked. Yeah, look, I suspect that the young people who voted, and the turnout was extraordinarily high, the highest since democracy came to Hungary, that there will be some disillusionment inevitably among the young people. But isn't that always the case in every election where a political leader finds that they can't deliver everything that everyone wants immediately?

14:18Yeah, it is. And for a little bit of perspective on this, we spoke this morning to Andrea Virag. She's from a sort of democracy think tank called the Republican Institute. And I asked her what the results told us. Everyone was expecting there to be a contested result. People talked to us about protests on the streets, about a narrow margin, maybe Viktor Orban refusing to go. And we were all quite shocked last night because it was so early at 9.30. We'd just arrived at the Fidesz headquarters and he was there. He was making the speech and admitting defeat and he went so quietly. Was that surprising to you?

14:57Yeah, I mean, it was surprising at first, but if you look at the results, the outcome of the election is so clear. It's so humiliating for Fidesz, to be honest. The gap is so huge between TISA and Fidesz that really the Prime Minister had no other chance than to concede the election and to congratulate to Peter Magyar. And I think he wanted to get on with it. And just like it was a very short speech. I mean, it was under four minutes, if I'm not mistaken. So it was an unusually short speech. It was very interesting to see who stood behind the Prime Minister and who didn't, most notably the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Peter Siyarto, wasn't there next to the Prime Minister.

15:53What does that tell you? I think partly it was his fault that the last weeks of the campaign, you know, there were a lot of leaked tapes. This was his conversation with his Russian counterpart. where they sounded too chummy. They sounded like they were good mates. Yeah, and I mean, for undecided voters, and I think even to not so committed Fidesz voters, it was a game changer to really hear our foreign minister talk to Lavrov and finally have some proof of him collaborating with Lavrov and sharing EU documents with him. So I don't think it changed the outcome, but I think it was another step toward this huge TISA victory.

16:54So let us talk now about how Peter Maggiar won. He's not the first opposition leader to go up against Orbán. Why did he win? I think his campaign strategy was more clever than what we've seen from previous opposition leaders. I think he was really focused and really committed and he really sticked to his own agenda, which was basically talking about economic issues, talking about public services, talking about the state of healthcare and so on. He didn't talk about foreign policy. He didn't talk about really about Europe or about Ukraine or about the war. That's what the prime minister wanted to talk about.

17:43Striking last night, we were on the streets with many of the young by the TISA sort of party essentially. And they are wrapped in the EU flag or they're waving the pride flag for LGBTQ rights. or they're talking about 180 degree change. And when you ask them what they like about Peter Magyar, they just say he's not Orban. They've just elected somebody who is from Fidesz previously, who has been a kind of Orban side in terms of policies. Is there going to be a big shock when they... I mean, do you think they're going to find out that he is, you know he's not as corrupt or he's not as as autocratic but in policy terms he agrees with many of the things that Orban put in place doesn't he?

18:39I mean from what we know from Peter Magyar's manifesto is like when it comes to policies it's quite different to Fidesz there are certain issues especially when it comes to migration for example. So Hungary will open up to migration? No, no, no. I just wanted to point out that when it comes to migration, Peter Magyar's policies are quite close to Fidesz, for example. But I think the hard part is coming now. Of course, it was very difficult to get a victory, especially this big. But governing this country and keeping this electorate together, which is a very diverse electorate, there are green voters, liberals, progressives, also some religious conservative voters, who are more open to right-wing policies, conservative policies.

19:33Keeping this base together will be a big challenge for Péter Magyar. And yeah, I think the most important thing about Péter Magyar was that he represented hope. He was the one people believed could defeat Orbán. He represented Hope, and yet his ex-wife, Judith Varga, who was in the Orban cabinet, went on air a couple of years ago and alleged he was a domestic abuser to her in their marriage. I mean, is it possible that the people of Hungary have just voted out an autocrat and voted in a man who's guilty of domestic abuse? Well, it's very tricky because, of course, we don't know what happened. We don't have any proof that Peter Magyar actually abused Judith Varga.

20:27Of course, I don't want to say anything on this issue because we don't know. But people didn't believe that he abused Judith Varga. I think the perception was that it was a political attack against Péter Magyar. You know, Fidesz also alleged that Péter Magyar used illegal drugs, that there is a tape coming out. Like a sex tape. Yeah. You think it's part of a Dirty Tricks campaign, essentially? But those tapes never came out, so it was just alleged. So they tried a lot of things to attack Peter Magyar personally, to destroy his image, and those didn't work. It is not unusual to see the opposition win in Budapest.

21:25It is unusual to see such a comprehensive obliteration. I mean, it's unusual. It's never happened. We've never seen Fidesz pushed out of power like this. And it looks like TISA won astonishingly, like 90 % of the constituencies of the whole country. So this was a rural vote that won it. Yeah, absolutely. I mean, from the 106 constituencies, Fidesz only managed to win 13, which is less than the opposition won four years ago. So it's really like a huge defeat for Viktor Orban. And in district, like there is a district where Fidesz won by 50 percentage points four years ago, 50. And now they only managed to win by four.

22:21So the shift, yeah, it's shocking how different this country is than it was four years ago. So let us just look outwards now. Donald Tusk has already congratulated Magyar. This is a moment when Poland and Hungary look as if they're on the same page again politically, but they've both left illiberal democracy for liberal democracy. Do you think that is a major shift now for Europe, for the EU? I think it's clear it's going to result in a very different Europe opened a very different European Union than it was with Viktor Orbán. I mean, if Viktor Orbán managed to do one thing, was that his position in the European Union and his role in the European Union became crucial and he really dictated many times the European Union's agenda and really prevented the European Union to make steps when it comes to Ukraine, when it comes to the war.

23:29Peter Magyar already said that his first official foreign trip will be to Warsaw, to of course... To Warsaw, to Poland. But for Ukraine, this is massive now because it releases all those blocked EU funds in terms of age, right? Yeah, sure. And I think Peter Magyar will be very keen to align with the European Union to really restore the trust in Hungary and restore our place in the European alliance. Not least because Peter Magyar, one of his main promises was to access the frozen EU funds that are now being withheld from Hungary. and in order to really make good on his election promises, he has to get those EU funds back.

24:23J.D. Vance was here just last week. Did he do anything to help Orbán or did he actually make it worse? No, I think with all due respect, nobody has any idea in Hungary about who J.D. Vance is. He is largely an unknown politician here. surely Prime Minister Orban was hoping for a presidential visit from Donald Trump and I have to say that would have helped him I think that would have been something different but J.D. Vance is really unknown in Hungary and nobody really cared about what he's saying. What a wonderful phrase that no one has heard of J.D. Vance well we'll talk about America's position in the world and also what this means for Europe just after the break.

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26:32The News Agents. So the result in Hungary puts into context the week from hell that J.D. Vance, the vice president, has just had. Because he came to Hungary, put all his weight and power behind an Orban victory, as if America wanted nothing more in the whole world than for Orban to win. And despite trying to put his thumb on the scales and intervene in another country's election in quite an unprecedented way, it came to nothing. Add to that his weekend trip to Pakistan and 18 hours of talks with the Iranians, which came to nothing. We've got Donald Trump now going to war with the Pope. We also have European leaders turning their back on what the Americans are asking for in terms of Iran.

27:29And I really feel that never has the gap been wider between the bombastic rhetoric of Donald Trump and how America has never been so respected in the world. And people come up to me and say, sir, America is the greatest place on earth again under your leadership. than the reality and the reality which is that people are thinking i don't need to take much notice of what america is saying and whether it's in hungary whether it was in canada last year or australia last year or the european union or nato and the list goes on and on you feel that far from america having gained new respect around the world it has gained a sense of fury at the way it is intervening in other people's affairs and the view of the rest of the world saying, I don't want any part of it.

28:23Yeah. And I think that trip to Hungary that Vance did last week was a real microcosm, actually, of the week that America has had, because Hungary has a slightly, I would say, outsized importance. I mean, it's a tiny country, you know, it's 10 million people just under. And so we shouldn't really be paying that much attention to it. But in geopolitical terms, it's been so fascinating because Orban was really the cut out character for populism, for Trump. You know, he was the inspiration behind Christian nationalism, ethno nationalism. He sort of, he allowed Trump, I think, to imagine this sort of country of, you know, white only migration and a place where you frankly just said no to immigrants or no to Muslims or no to anything that was sort of culturally diverse.

29:19And the fact that that is now just exited, I think, will will be a real slap in the face for, you know, the sort of the MAGA movement, actually, because Bannon, Trump, Vance, they look to Hungary as their blueprint for what America would do. And now at least this part of Europe has rejected that. And it was curious that one of the first phone calls last night came from Poland's prime minister, Donald Tusk. Now, you'll remember that Poland was also in this sort of position of a liberal democracy until a couple of years ago. their Law and Justice Party, was doing the same kind of stuff as Orban, you know, slamming any kind of rights for LGBTQ, changing the sort of judiciary, changing the sort of freedom of media and the freedom of law or the rule of law, I should say.

30:13And Donald Tusk basically picked up the phone and said, welcome back to Europe. Have a listen. Hello, Petr? I'm so happy. I think I'm happier than you, you know.

30:47with its war efforts, and suddenly Orbán's gone. And the prospect of Ukraine getting a whole load more money from the EU now looks very possible. Could that be a massive boost to Ukraine in helping it try and win the war against Putin? I mean, interesting enough, I mentioned Peter Sajjata, who's the Hungarian foreign minister. No one knows where he is today, right? No one knows where he's gone. And the rumours have started, albeit on Twitter, you know, he might have just fled to Moscow. He's not behind Orban anymore. He's kind of in disgrace here, which I think is a reflection of that sort of shift you can feel now.