Farage beats the bin - so why are Reform MPs livid?

14 Aug 2026 · 39 min · 14 chapters

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In short

The episode discusses Nigel Farage’s Reform UK victory in the Clacton by-election and the fallout from his decision to call the contest amid an ongoing parliamentary standards investigation into a reported £5 million donation from Christopher Harbourn (a Thai-based crypto billionaire).

Key claims

the by-election was a “Trumpian” attempt to neutralize the standards probe; the investigation resumed immediately after the result; Reform’s messaging became chaotic, with spokespeople blaming Essex Police for a “credible threat” dispute; Farage’s absence from the victory count is framed as politically damaging.

Notable examples

Farage winning 63% and over 22,000 votes; “Count Bimface” (a joke candidate) winning 9,400 votes; a bin candidate taking 27% of the vote.

Guests

John in London and Lewis in Tirana (podcast hosts), plus referenced reporting from Henry Riley (LBC) and interviews with Richard Tice (Reform) and Lee Anderson.

Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.

Chapters

Tap a time to open that second in VO

Farage's By-Election Victory and Controversy

0:33 to 3:06

Explore the aftermath of Nigel Farage's by-election win and the surrounding controversies.

“Nigel Farage, proof of concept, won a huge majority last night on a very decent turnout.”

The Unusual Candidates and Political Landscape

3:06 to 4:22

Discuss the peculiar candidates and the political implications of the by-election results.

“We'll come to that a little bit later on.”

Investigation into Farage's Finances

4:22 to 6:04

Delve into the ongoing investigation regarding Farage's financial dealings and its implications.

“Nigel Farage facing off against, I think, 32 other candidates, many of them joke candidates, obviously count Bimface, the most well-known among them.”

Public Perception and Future Implications

6:04 to 8:14

Consider how public support for Farage might affect future political dynamics and elections.

“So on the narrow technical question of trying to use this as a way to obviate, to get around that investigation, well, that investigation has already started again.”

Reform Party's Struggles and Strategy

8:14 to 9:45

Analyze the Reform Party's recent challenges and their strategy moving forward.

“I suspect Clacton, if there were another by-election, would return Nigel Farage for a second time.”

The Aftermath of Farage's Victory

9:45 to 14:00

Reflect on the implications of Farage's recent victory and the controversies it has sparked.

“So I think there is no doubt that he has received once again a mandate and quasi-absolution from the people of Clacton.”

Farage's Absence and Security Concerns

14:00 to 15:20

Discussion on Farage's absence from the count due to security concerns and his statements about feeling demeaned.

“a sort of aggression of grievance, sort of that is constantly affected by Farage and others.”

Reform's Political Strategy and Tone

15:20 to 19:28

Analysis of Reform's recent campaign tone and their return to aggressive politics amidst changing public perception.

“I've just told you, let's trust Nigel's security team to keep him safe, secure and alive.”

The Aftermath of Farage Fest

19:28 to 24:14

Reflections on the implications of Farage's behavior during the by-election and his party's reaction to it.

“and there was Farage wading into the crowd, taking on all comers, hail fellow, well met, as you say, happy warrior, happy to be out there campaigning.”

The Aftermath of Farage Fest

26:13 to 27:02

Reflections on the implications of Farage's behavior during the by-election and his party's reaction to it.

“Bite into a stacked sandwich made with Hero Bread or a fully loaded bagel.”
Show all 14 chapters

Future of Farage and Wider Politics

27:21 to 28:00

Exploration of how Farage's political strategy may need to adapt in the changing political landscape.

“And it is certainly true to say, I mean, a striking thing in a way, it reminds us how quickly politics is turning right now.”

Farage's Shift in Political Strategy

28:00 to 30:30

Discussion on how Nigel Farage's political environment has changed and his need for a new strategy.

“The national conversation, he's been away from that.”

The Impact of By-Elections on Reform

30:30 to 36:50

Analysis of the effects of recent by-elections on Reform's political standing and strategy.

“And the other figures on reform have had a much more of the limelight.”

Travel Insights and Protests in Albania

37:05 to 41:05

Light-hearted conversation about travel and a significant protest in Albania related to Ivanka Trump.

“It started to come up in focus group and polling that actually maybe he's just like all the rest of them and he's drowning in money and he's got his snout in the trough and all that sort of stuff.”
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Transcript

Automatic transcript. May contain errors.

0:00Bite into a stacked sandwich made with Hero Bread. And the only thing you'll think is delicious. You won't think it has up to 19 grams protein, 11 to 32 grams of fiber, or just 0 to 5 grams net carbs. But it does. Hero Bread. No compromises. Just loaves, buns, tortillas, bagels, and noodles packed with flavor. Right now, get 10 % off at Hero.co with code IHEART. That's H-E-R-O dot C-O, code IHEART. All figures per serving of Hero Bread. See Nutrition Facts on Hero.co. This is a global production. Nigel Farage, proof of concept, won a huge majority last night on a very decent turnout. But what a shambles the past 24 hours has turned out to be.

0:44A parliamentary investigation had been instigated about this£5 million gift that he received from Christopher Harbourn. Well, that investigation has already started again. I thought it was the kind of crudest, most populist Trumpian thing to do, to call a by-election and say, well, if we win this by-election, there is no case to answer. And as you kind of sift through the debris the morning after, it's hard to think that it has achieved anything at all for reform. I've been advised tonight by Essex Police that there is an organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result that will take place in a few hours' time.

1:29And once again it shows you the sheer intolerance, the sheer loss of fundamental democratic principles, that those that went before us fought in world wars to fight for and preserve. And this shows you why the battle that we're engaged upon in this great party, in this great movement of ours, is to get this country back to the values that it needs to be.

2:00And so I regret to say, and by the way, I'm not scared of these people, far from it, but I'm damned if I'm going to stand on a stage having won a resounding victory, a ringing endorsement of all that I've tried to fight for and you've tried to fight for and be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies. And I will not, sadly, be attending the count, which means... which means I'm going to be here all night. Was Nigel Farage's victory in Clacton as hollow as the bin he defeated? He says he won more votes than in 2024, and yet he wasn't even on the stage to celebrate his victory. Reform spokespeople sound tetchy.

2:50A bin got 27 % of the vote. A planned Farage rally this morning has been cancelled. Has this by-election ruse turned into a total shambles? Welcome to The News Agents.

3:13It's John in London. And it's Lewis in Tirana. Sorry? Tirana, John. Tirana? It's not an ex-girlfriend of yours. It's the capital of Albania. We'll come to that a little bit later on. But last night, what was more remarkable? The fact that Nigel Farage got 63 % of the vote and won an overwhelming majority and a clear win in his safe seat of Clacton. Or was it that a bin got 27 % of the vote in this most bizarre by-election that Nigel Farage had called and fought, hoping that it would see away all his financial troubles because the people of Clacton had spoken? And as you kind of sift through the debris the morning after, it's hard to think that it has achieved anything at all for reform.

4:13So just a reminder as to how we got here, because without doubt, it has been the weirdest by-election that I can remember. Nigel Farage facing off against, I think, 32 other candidates, many of them joke candidates, obviously count Bimface, the most well-known among them. The other parties boycotting this by-election. This happened because a parliamentary investigation into Nigel Farage by the Standards Commissioner had been instigated about this£5 million gift that he received from Christopher Harbourn, the Thai-based crypto billionaire, very big benefactor to the Reform Party overall. There's been a suggestion that this had not been properly declared.

4:54Farage refuted that, denied that, said that this was simply a personal gift, so it didn't have to be declared. And as this investigation was ongoing, pretty much out of nowhere, just at a moment where Farage appeared that he couldn't escape these questions, He was being hammered with them by the media, you know, week after after week, having generally received a very favourable press in the entire run up to that period. He out of nowhere decides he's going to fight a by-election effectively in the end against himself. Because, as I say, the main parties decided that they would boycott that by-election because they said that it was a joke.

5:31Now, let's just take the very narrow question, the very narrow question of the investigation itself. reform this morning, I'm speaking to a reform source this morning, they're saying that this entire question, as far as they're concerned, has been put to bed. Quote from a source, this puts the standards issue to bed as far as we're concerned. And if they really want to do this again, so be it. But of course, just on this narrow question, let's leave aside the wider politics for a moment in his future. Does this put the question and the investigation over the 5 million to bed? Well, quite literally not, because no sooner virtually had the result come in this morning, and Nigel Farage had been restored to being an MP, that the parliamentary commissioner, Interstandards, announced that the investigation into the 5 million and the lack of declaration has already resumed.

6:24So on the narrow technical question of trying to use this as a way to obviate, to get around that investigation, well, that investigation has already started again. And Lewis, nor should it be a settled matter now that the people of Clacton have spoken, because that is not how our system works. You know, it's like kind of, I don't know, you commit some heinous crime in your street and you ask the people in the street whether they still support you. And they say, yeah, we still love Lewis Goodall. OK, well, that's the matter settled. No, if you've broken the law, that's a matter for the judicial authorities.

6:56If you have infringed parliamentary rules, then it is for the parliamentary watchdogs and commissioners to investigate whether they think there has been wrongdoing and reach their own conclusion. I thought it was the kind of crudest, most populist Trumpian thing to do to call a by-election and say, well, if we win this by-election, there is no case to answer. Donald Trump couldn't even pull that off in America when he was facing legal challenges. You know, there was a court case and he was found guilty and now has a criminal record as a result of that. You know, Nigel Farage is not facing criminal offences, but there are serious questions that still need to be answered about that five million pound donation.

7:35And the idea that because he'd been reelected in Clacton, there is no further investigation needed is utterly fallacious. And I think that is why reform finds itself in the mess that it is today, because it has gone for this as a way of trying to get round the parliamentary investigation. and it was obvious it was going to fail. And who knows? There may be a recall petition, and Nigel Farage may be fighting a by-election again in Clacton very soon. Well, indeed. I mean, again, this reform source saying to me, Nigel said he should be judged by the people of Clacton. They responded by giving him an even bigger vote this time than in 2024.

8:13But as you say, John, ultimately, the people of Clacton aren't necessarily the only jurors in this. I mean, they may end up being the ultimate juror in the sense that if the commissioner comes back and the investigation does end up recommending a suspension from the House of Commons that is sufficiently long that might create a by-election or might prompt a recall petition, which may bring about a second by-election, then it may be. And I suspect they would. I suspect Clacton, if there were another by-election, would return Nigel Farage for a second time. I don't think there's much doubt about that, even with the other parties contesting.

8:49But in a way, that's the point. I mean, kind of what have we learned from this by-election in political terms? Well, we've learned that Clacton really likes Nigel Farage. We knew that before. We knew that before. It is their safest seat. There is a reason that Nigel Farage chose to stand there in 2024 in the general election. It's not because he had long-standing personal links to Clacton. It's because, in effect, it is a seat that with a brief interregnum had basically been had been being won by reform type parties, Nigel Farage type outfits. You know, UKIP before as far back as 2014. Right. Demographically, politically, culturally, socially.

9:32This is as reform heartland as it gets. It's like deepest, darkest, ruby red Alabama for the Republican Party. right or or you know brooklyn for the democrats in new york you know this is safe as houses and it is true to say that i think he has given us proof positive proof of concept that as i say if there were to be another by-election that he would win it i mean actually the turnout everyone was talking about it is it a stunt and so on will the voters treat it as a stunt in fairness turn out at around 44 or so not bad for a by-election it is true that he managed to win more votes than he did in 2024, albeit with the other parties not standing against him.

10:11So I think there is no doubt that he has received once again a mandate and quasi-absolution from the people of Clacton. But the people of Clacton are unusual. The question is whether the rest of the country will share the verdict and judgment as Clacton will do, which is the most favourable terrain that he could possibly have. And on that, the question is much more open. Well, let's go back to what's happened in the past 24 hours, because, you know, since the general election in July 2024, we talked about how silky the communications have been from reform, how adroit they are exploiting opportunity of making the most of everything that comes along.

10:55And then we questioned when this by-election happened, whether this was a smart move or whether it would rebound. And as you say, Lewis, you know, Nigel Farage, proof of concept, won a huge majority last night on a very decent turnout. But what a shambles the past 24 hours has turned out to be. Henry Riley, our colleague from LBC, was watching it all in Clacton. Well, Lewis and John, we've just had the result announced here in Clacton. And as was expected, Nigel Farage won and he won big. He won with over 22 ,000 votes. He improved his vote share that he got in 2024. Count Bimface, I mean, who saw that coming?

11:339 ,400 votes just over that. I mean, Nigel Farage and Reform were saying he was the establishment candidate against him, which he certainly refutes. But the whole thing has been rather strange. I spent the day on Clacton Pier today. People were pretty fatigued by the election. There's the prospect that they have to do it all over again at some point if the Standards Commissioner does find that Nigel Farage has breached any rules because that investigation will be reopened. Ultimately, this has turned into a row about Nigel Farage, nothing to do with the results, strangely, all to do with Essex Police.

12:07Now, he had said at Farage Fest, not far from here, that there were bad faith actors essentially in operation. Reform then doubled down on that in a statement from an official spokesperson saying that he was advised by Essex Police not to attend. Essex Police have responded and, as we understand it, said to no candidate not to attend. So there's conflicting views here whether Nigel Farage is right, whether Essex Police are right. But I'll be honest, it's the strangest by-election I've ever covered. I'm pleased it's over. I think the people of Clacton are mighty relieved. So let us kind of try and unpick what has happened, because we played that clip at the beginning of the podcast at the top where Nigel Farage is talking, kind of trying to compare how he was going to be treated on the stage with the world wars that had been fought.

12:57I mean, honestly, these forces of darkness and tyranny, they were joke candidates. And I'm convinced that the reason that Nigel Farage did not appear on that stage last night was that the circus of his own creation was going to rebound on him and it would just be ridiculous. And so he decided, you know what, I'm staying away. And so they cook up a story that Essex police have said there's a threat or whatever. but you know party spokespeople have been rowing back on that or trying to redefine what they thought was a threat ever since yeah indeed and actually i think it's um maybe it's worth listening to richard tice who is the former leader of reform um and um close ally of nigel farage he was on the airwaves this morning talking to our lbc colleague nick ferrari uh among others and again sort of i think really an embodiment of some of the political problems or the problems of the political operation of reform in recent months, getting bogged down in these questions which basically arise from this air of constant grievance, a sort of aggression of grievance, sort of that is constantly affected by Farage and others.

14:08In this case, the source or the target of this being Essex police. Just listen to the exchange that Nick and Richard Tice had. Why was Mr Farage not at the count last night or the early hours of this morning? Because his security team were very concerned about a credible threat to his security. And with the greatest of respect, I don't think anybody should have the temerity to question our judgments and our security team's judgments about security and safety. This appears also to be at odds because we heard Mr Farage said he would not be attending because he didn't want to be demeaned and humiliated.

14:44So that's nothing to do with his safety. He doesn't want to stand next to someone dressed as a dustbin. Nigel has just won an outstanding victory. He's got... Voters in Clacton have said, we want more Nigel, not less Nigel. Is it because he didn't want to be demeaned and humiliated, as he said, or you're now telling that it's his security team who overrode Essex Police? Which is it? I've just told you, I'm delighted to tell you again, I trust the judgment of Nigel's security team above everybody else... So his suggestion he would be demeaned and humiliated is nonsensical? If you can ask me a question, do me the courtesy of letting me answer it.

15:23I've just told you, let's trust Nigel's security team to keep him safe, secure and alive. Why did he say he would feel demeaned and humiliated in attending then? That's got nothing to do with the security point. No, no, no, but why did he say that? I don't know, Nick. It wasn't just Richard Tice. I also listened to Lee Anderson, who was also out and about this morning. and I couldn't help but thinking just how unbelievably tetchy they sound and they're sounding and if this is what they sound like when they're winning god help us when they're losing because they sounded so irascible and sure they may not have had much sleep last night and sure they may have partied late and had one too many I don't know whatever they were drinking but they go on the radio and they're and they're you know quarreling and quibbling over these details that this was their show this was what they have created and it said it felt like they couldn't agree why they were doing what they were doing among themselves yeah i think that the um this is i think this whole campaign and the whole last six months for reform uh and and the last 24 hours has been another perfect embodiment of it is the retreat to the party's comfort zone and it's kind of comfort psychology, if you like.

16:44There was a period where I think certainly when reform were feeling comfortable, when they were getting late 20s, 30 % in the polls, where they were receiving a very favourable press, where they had a kind of expansionist mode of politics, they were keen not to appear eccentric, to be indulging in their more fringe ideas or more fringe elements, to tone down that sort of politics of anger and fury and to affect sometimes quite a sense of humility. I remember Farage talking about how nervous he was about the idea of assuming government, you know, the idea of not letting all of these millions of people down who might believe in him and all of these, this sort of thing.

17:27And I think as the pressure has grown in the last six months for all sorts of reasons, some of the political reasons and the new political environment we might talk about, as these stories around his personal finances have become more intense. What we have seen is reform giving way back to old, more base political instincts, primarily affecting a constant politics of aggression and politics and sense of grievance. And that is what you're seeing this morning. This time, as I say, the target being Essex police. The idea that everybody's always out to get us. The idea that every we've talked about this week, John, everyone from, you know, the top of government to the police, to the board of Vodafone, all in some way being complicit and culpable.

18:14And look, this is a day, as you say, where it should be a sunny day for reform. It should be a moment of absolution. The message that should be going out is Tim Montgomery, a sort of former conservative who has become a reform person. And he tweeted this morning talking about the idea that Nigel Farage needed to be on the airwaves this morning, looking like a happy warrior, the cheeky, chappy Nigel that you want to spend down the pub with. Not pub bore Nigel, who's angry and got his finger wagging in your face and telling you about how everybody is always out to get him. The sort of pub bore boomer guy who you just want to shut up at the end of the night and send to bed.

18:49Right. That is the danger, I think, in terms of the sort of politics of all of this. And even in this moment of victory and what they are saying is a moment of of of absolution, that is still the tone which I think augurs badly for them and the politics to come. I remember when we went to Clacton during the general election campaign and watched Farage campaign. And I kind of was so impressed by the fact that, you know, you had Labour and the Conservative with their kind of manicured and heavily curated public appearances with Rishi Sunak or with Starmer. and there was Farage wading into the crowd, taking on all comers, hail fellow, well met, as you say, happy warrior, happy to be out there campaigning.

19:38And, you know, just that kind of ease about him. There has always been this other side of Nigel Farage, which, you know, if you've had private dealings with him, you know it's there, that there is a chippiness, there is a bitterness. And I feel that that is the face of reform that we are seeing at the moment. and they need to get over it. Look, there was a credible strategy. Their opinion poll ratings were real. And part of the strategy was to reach out and broaden their support among disaffected conservatives so that they did have a chance of winning in Surrey and Sussex and Hampshire and Buckinghamshire and the home counties where they could do pick up a number of perhaps very vulnerable Tory seats, instead of which, as you say, Lewis, they seem to be going back to core basic values and sounding so chippy about the whole bloody thing that they're not enjoying it and that they feel everyone is against them.

20:33And honestly, you know, it wasn't the people versus the establishment in Clacton last night. It was Nigel Farage versus a whole bunch of oddballs who had turned up and were having a ball. I think that is clear. Farage, I think, was clear, really, in that speech. Farage Fest. not not the event not the festival of the summer that I think necessarily I was expecting but there we go at Farage Fest move over I suppose Glastonbury is not on this year so I suppose we've got to have something to fill the gap I think you know he was quite clear I think about what his real motivation right he they did not see and I can I can I can sort of see that or try and sort of understand their anger I think they were genuinely furious that the other parties didn't come and play ball for this by-election.

21:22You know, I think they were surprised, they were taken aback, they should probably have seen it coming. But, you know, their view is, and I think there is, there's some justification to this, which is like, well, there's a political process going on in Parliament. Yeah, they should have waited for that to conclude, but there's this political process, and I don't mean that it's jaundiced or anything like that, I just mean that there's a process going on in Parliament to deal with the investigation into the question over standards. and he's trying to deal with this via the by-election and their view was that it is an insult to the democratic process for parties not to come and fight that by-election they would say well Labour affected basically an unnecessary by-election in Makerfield we turned up to play you know the and I and they they think that they left the field open the other parties to these joke candidates including BIMFACE who have made a mockery of the democratic process and I can kind I sort of see what they mean by that.

22:18But then on the other hand, Farage did instigate it. He didn't need to instigate it at this time. He could have waited for the process to play out. That would have been the proper thing to do. And just listening to him at that event, he reminded me in a way he was like a circus master who was furious with his own clowns. He was furious almost with the process and almost the inevitable outcome of the process he himself had instigated. And to not turn up, look, my understanding is that, I was talking to reform people this morning and they're insistent that Essex police were in touch, that they did warn Farage's office of a potential security threat of some description.

22:59I think the dispute appears to come that Essex police did not say, as Farage indicated they did, that he shouldn't turn up as a result. I think Essex police did not say that. That's what they're refuting this morning and that they're saying that they had a robust police presence there. And I'm sure it is true. I'm sure it is true that probably of the 32 other candidates on that stage, I'm sure that probably one of them would have tried to make a scene or whatever it is. But as you say, John, the key to that in that case would have been Farage actually dealing with it and dealing with it in that moment and doing so in a way that actually spoke well of him.

23:38The problem with this in not turning up and looking churlish and looking angry at the very democratic process that was needless, that you yourself have instigated and created. The danger is for them politically is that's all we're again we're talking about this morning. We're not talking about the fact or many, you know, on the broadcast rounds. They're not talking about the fact that, yeah, it was a pretty creditable performance. Yeah, there were people who hoped he'd be humiliated by the bin, didn't come anywhere close. Not talking about that, instead talking about his churlishness and his anger or the anger of his spokespeople at, of all people, Essex police.

24:12Police, I know. Unbelievable. And you say he should have waited for the whole process to play itself out, i.e. the Parliamentary Commissioner's investigation into that£5 million. There's something interesting that he seems to have told GB News this morning, which is maybe I haven't filled in a piece of paper. You know, that's obviously around the question of his finances. I can feel that quote getting a lot more interrogation over the coming days, Because is that sort of an admission that maybe he hadn't played by the rules and knows that he maybe should have filled in that piece of paper about the five million pound donation?

24:56Oh, it was such a small, insignificant sum. Oops, I forgot about it. I mean, people don't forget about someone putting five million quid into your private bank account. Bit of trivia before we go to the break, John. Oh, go on then. I love it. Nigel Farage, the first MP or elected MP not to turn up to his own victory count since who? Oh, I bet it's going to be someone very unexpected and new Labour or somebody like that. No, no, very much not new Labour. Well, I'll give you a clue. It was the 1981 Fermanagh and South Tyrone by-election. Ah, Gerry Adams. No, Bobby Sands. And there was quite a good reason why Bobby Sands couldn't turn up, of course.

25:41He was, of course, on hunger strike. And was he in an H block? He was, yes. Yeah, he was under lock and key and on hunger strike. So that's why Bobby couldn't turn up. But yes, Nigel Farage breaking his, well, his nearly 40-year record. Yeah, there we are. There's something. What do Nigel Farage and Bobby Sands have in common? We'll be back after the break.

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27:20So I think the question, the wider question now, beyond what happens with the parliamentary process into the five million, which, as we say, will be ongoing, is in the sort of more medium to long term, what effect this has, if any, on wider politics. And it is certainly true to say, I mean, a striking thing in a way, it reminds us how quickly politics is turning right now. Actually, in the time that Farage has briefly been out of parliament, politics has changed a lot. You know, we've had Andy Burnham enter government, become prime minister. He's getting this burn and bounce. Farage has been off the political field during that time, more or less.

28:00The national conversation, he's been away from that. And the political terrain right now does look substantially different from where it was when Farage was at his peak in the middle of 2025 during the kind of nadir, really, of the Starmer government. And in a way, this collection stuff is a distraction, because I think what we have learned, we know, we know for sure that there will always be a significant constituency of the country, which is going to be very pro Farage, which is going to be ignore any wider political questions around the donation and the parliamentary process. We know that they'll believe him when they say that it's an establishment, stitch up and so on.

Read the full transcript

28:45But it is absolutely true that Farage now, the wider politics has changed so much that Farage is going to have to affect quite a different political strategy against someone like Burnham and against a Labour Party which has an effective communicator. And frankly, we haven't seen Farage go up against a Labour Party and Labour prime minister who is as good a communicator as Farage is and is as good as tapping into the emotional, more emotive sort of elements of politics as Farage is. So in a way, Farage, when I say reform has been in its comfort zone over the last six months or so, you know, even over the last month, that has been taken to new extremes.

29:24Farage has been in his comfort zone geographically, politically. He loves campaigning. He's been hanging out with his most ardent supporters, those who love him most in his own constituency. I'm told that he's been re-energised by it. Well, I'm sure he has because it is very energising being around a load of people who agree with you and think you're absolutely brilliant. But this is now the wake up call now for Farage and reform. They've actually got to get back on the main political pitch where they're not fighting on home turf. And they're actually going to find a political battleground which is more hostile to them than it's been for quite some time.

29:58Yeah. And I wonder whether the effect of, you know, Nigel Farage having to spend so much time in Clacton, not appearing on the national stage because, you know, the mainstream broadcasters couldn't put him on TV when he was a candidate in a by-election. And so his face hasn't been appearing. And you've seen the other people coming forward. And, you know, twice this week on the podcast, we've talked about things that Zia Yusuf has said. One of them, Nigel Farage saying, well, I'm going to reproach him. And I wonder whether there's almost been a sense, well, while the cat's away, the mice will play.

30:30And the other figures on reform have had a much more of the limelight. But it's also led to more confusion about what the direction is of reform, whether it is going for those kind of disaffected Tory votes or whether it's going after the supporters of Rupert Lowe. And so you've kind of left in that position where you're not quite sure what the reform game plan is. And maybe Nigel Farage is going to reassert that now that he's got his seat back in Parliament. As you say, the whole geography has shifted. And so, you know, you think to the dog days of Starmer and everyone's thinking, oh, my God, we face electoral annihilation and we've got to change leader.

31:15They've changed leader. We even had a question on this from one of our listeners, Andrew Jones, which said, has Farage's by-election stunt backfired, weakening both him and reform? And could it embolden Burnham to seek an early general election? And the idea that Labour six months ago would be thinking of an early general election just seemed beyond improbable. I mean, look, you know, if Burnham is saying, no, there is not going to be an early general election. But if the burn and bounce continues to bounce a bit higher, and reform continues to slip further, there will be people who will be looking at that and thinking, okay, what would this election campaign look like?

31:59Have we got the resources to do it? How would we run it? And, you know, maybe it's possible he would have a go. Well, I mean, we should also think about what the assets are, right? And the ways in which this by-election will have helped them, i.e. reform, because there will be some benefits, right? I mean, I think there is a danger, just as I think there was a bit of fever around reform and Farage when they were at their peak. I think there's a little bit of a danger among the commentariat now and received wisdom to underestimate them and underestimate their strength. Because despite their fall in the polls and Farage has definitely taken a big personal hit over all this you know that is reflective in reflected in the polls in terms of his personal ratings which have been have been significantly damaged you know real real decline also clear that the right-wing press has sort of turned against him and turned back towards the conservative party which will be a problem for him nonetheless they're still in some polls out polling labor and the conservatives less than there was but they still are um it is clear that they are very politically strong in certain parts of the country.

33:07Like in certain parts of the country, they have just displaced the Conservative Party. And that is part of a longer term trend that I don't necessarily see being arrested at any time soon. It's also true to say that there is a, continues to be a really significant anti-politics feeling, anti-establishment feeling, which they are clearly still the primary beneficiary of. And it's also true to say the Conservative Party brand, although Kemi, everyone, you know, so many pundits go on endlessly about how well Kemi is doing. Conservative Party Brand continues to be absolutely toxic and she's not that popular either.

33:43And Burnham as well. You know, he could well be his absolute peak right now. He could be at the top of the bounce. And as soon as proper politics comes and the budget comes later in the year and there are tough choices to be made, then reform are still there waiting in the wings. That's that's what reform will tell you. And they'll tell you as well. and I think again there's some truth to this which is that look they have they have shown everybody now in terms of this question of the five million you're right John it shouldn't shut anything down it won't shut the investigation down but obviously the by-election result does give them some rhetorical armor plating because they can just turn around when people like you and me ask and go people have clacked to be very clear they they what they think about that Lewis and they think and they'll be able to say and say to everybody everyone will know now that if there is another by-election, as I say, he would almost certainly win it.

34:31So they've already, they've tried to get ahead of it. And there is some benefit to that because what Farage loves to do, and his favourite sort of way of being, as we know, is basically pitching himself as the us, as opposed to the them. And the more this process goes on, and if he were to be forced to fight another by-election, he could try and pull that trick off all over again. And it does have some salience and some purchase. The danger is, of course, that as he has done over the past month or so, he ends up just looking pretty eccentric. And it just creates a bit of a smell, a bit of a whiff around him, that your median voter, who might have been vaguely interested in him, not a diehard, but your median voter just goes, you know what, he's a bit of a weirdo, isn't he?

35:12I think, look, I think it's absolutely right to put in the cautionary words of, you know, let's, you know, politics kind of go, you know, we kind of swing wildly. Oh my God, things have never been so bad for this government. Things have never been so good for this government, And, of course, it's always somewhere in between. And things are nothing like as bad for reform as some people are saying. But I think what has changed, and I'm not sure that the by-election alters that, is that Nigel Farage received£5 million, which, compared to the corruption that's going on in America, is just small beer.

35:50I mean, almost pathetically inconsequential compared to the way that, you know, Donald Trump is enriching himself. But this is British politics. And I think it has cut through. And I think the questions over funding about the way reform has raised money, a metropolitan police investigation, posh George and the convicted fraudster and money there and the relationship with Paris. I think these things are adding up. And so, yes, you've got a by-election. Yes, the people of Clacton. Yes, the other constituencies around the country. And every time you get one of, you know, a giant rubber boat arriving on the Calais coast with hundreds of illegal asylum seekers, that is all grist to Nigel Farage's mill.

36:35But I think that something has changed with these whole financial questions. And what this doesn't do is make these financial questions go away. I think there'll be renewed focus, or there will continue to be focused, I should say, on Farage, reform and money. I agree. And what it does is, and it's clearly done this in the polling and the focus groups, it's been clear that the five million, it does, if not nullify, but it does undermine his central premise, which is the anti-establishment thing. It started to come up in focus group and polling that actually maybe he's just like all the rest of them and he's drowning in money and he's got his snout in the trough and all that sort of stuff.

37:18And the other thing that it doesn't do, just briefly, the other thing, of course, that the by-election does not affect at all, leave Burnham out of it, leave Baden-Koch out of it. One of his biggest problems, which partly explains their return to a slightly more fevered kind of pitch of politics, has been Restore and Rupert Lowe. and we have seen during the course of this by-election these kind of overtures or this opening kind of dalliance between them to try and maybe patch things up or get some sort of deal that's already come to nothing right and and you know when we're talking about the burn and bounce leave aside the bounce for the moment Andy Burnham's greatest asset to go back to our questioner if he were thinking about an election over the next three six nine months perhaps his greatest asset right now is just how fragmented the right of centre vote has become and by comparison how we've seen in by-election after by-election and to some extent in the locals as well we've seen the progressive vote being willing to coalesce behind the party that is most likely to defeat the right-wing option principally at reform so you've got to think that you know if you're Andy Burnham there is a pretty tantalizing prospect to go for an election sooner rather than later while the right simply doesn't have its act together and where you could be rewarded handsomely when your opposing bloc, the right wing bloc, is so divided that its vote could simply be split in every direction and you yourself could take the spoils.

38:47And we'll be back in a moment with Lewis on his holidays in Tirana.

38:59There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still, not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far. Now we're here to help you keep going further. Capella University, what can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more.

39:22Lewis, I hate to admit it, but I think I was unkind there saying Lewis on his holidays. What are you doing there? I'm working the weekend, pal. Something that you would not know about. Not for a long time. Oh, please, please, please, please, please, please. Well, have you ever heard, John, of your part of your extensive travels? I mean, I know you love to go to a monsoon in July, but you won't find any of these here. Have you heard about Sazan Island? Have you ever been in part of your travels to Sazan Island? No, I haven't. But I kind of know something about it. Well, Sazen Island is the biggest island off the coast.

39:56Take it away, Judith Chalmers. Biggest island off the coast of Albania. And one Ivanka Trump, while she was yachting on holiday some years ago, claimed Marco Polo-like to have discovered it and walked bare feet across it and was inspired. And guess what she wants to do, John? Because after all, she is a Trump. When you see a bit of prime holiday real estate, what do you do? You want to buy it and build it. You want to build a hotel. Just as her instincts, every little Trump selling her body has made her do. Unfortunately, it's basically prompted the biggest street protest in Albania since the fall of communism.

40:36We're here to explore why. The travel agents does have a future. I think we've just got to keep pitching it. You have a good weekend and we'll see you on Monday. See you on Monday. Bye bye. There's a fire inside you you can't ignore. Stand still, not a chance. You're a lifelong learner who's come this far. Now we're here to help you keep going further. Capella University, what can't you do? Visit capella.edu to learn more. This has been a global production.

From the publisher

The people of Clacton will be relieved it’s over, but one candidate was conspicuously absent from the proceedings last night: Nigel Farage. He and his team will say he was advised not to attend because of a security threat, Essex police deny any such advice.

Nonetheless, in a surprise to absolutely no one, Farage won the Clacton by-election, seeing off a record 33 other candidates. But just how impressive was the victory? Is Farage’s win really as big as he’d have us believe? Or is it even more hollow than the bin he defeated?

And, with the by-election behind him, attention now turns to the investigation into his £5 million in donations, which was swiftly reopened once the results were in. What happens next for Farage? And what does the Clacton result really tell us about his political future?

The News Agents is a Global Production.

The News Agents is brought to you by HSBC UK - https://www.hsbc.co.uk/

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