Has Labour reignited the Brexit debate by mistake?

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0:31This is a Global Player original podcast. Two men, these two pretenders to the throne, vying for the Labour leadership, playing slightly different contests, slightly different games, playing two different audiences. When you've threatened to resign as many times as I have to try and get something that you want, you do have to sometimes go through with the threat for people to believe that it's real. It is absolutely true that the Labour Party should have been more aggressive for some time, including under the Keir Starmer government, in going for Farage and pointing out the lies.

1:01Andy Burnham:Right now, Brexit is the status quo. We are partying like it is 2016 again. I am not proposing that the UK considers rejoining the EU. I respect the decision that was made at the referendum and it's going to undermine everything I've said about strengthening democracy if we don't respect that vote. After a weekend where the Brexit debate has once again engulfed the Labour Party, that was Andy Burnham speaking at a business conference in Leeds today, doing everything he could to shut it down. And if you're thinking he didn't sound quite as fluent, quite as conversational, quite as informal as he usually does, it's because he was looking down at his notes, making sure he didn't miss a single word.

1:51Andy Burnham:It is a minefield for any potential Labour leader. But is Brexit going to hang around their necks whatever they say next? Welcome to the News Agents.

2:08It's Lewis. It's Maitlis. And the Prime Minister, well, the almost Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, and a roadrunner extraordinaire, has been treating us over the course of the weekend the first full days of his Make-A-Field campaign. It should actually be said, at the time of recording anyway, he's not officially the Make-A-Field candidate yet. The CLP haven't met. So Make-A-Field, constituency, Labour Party have the opportunity to do something really hilarious by choosing some local councillor or something like this and upending the whole process.

2:36Andy Burnham:One of the guys that just lost his job in last week's local elections. Come on in, come on back. Exactly. But that seems unlikely. Look, the first couple of days of this by-election have, predictably enough, been deeply weird. We've got a Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, who is saying that he wants everybody to go and campaign for the guy who absolutely definitely wants to replace him. We've got the Prime Minister who, authority and power has already started to flow and slip and ebb away. And the proof positive of that has been the whole weekend, I should say, has been spent passing over and trying to divine exactly what Andy Burnham and to a lesser extent West Streeting think about all manner of issues, principally and particularly the EU and Brexit.

3:27And that is because at a progress rally, which is a sort of Labour think tank campaign group rally over the weekend, Wes Streeting opened the Brexit Pandora's box and said very, very clearly that during his lifetime, he wants to rejoin or wants to see us rejoin the EU and up to that point have a new special relationship. This is what he said. We need a new special relationship with the EU because Britain's future lies with Europe. And one day, one day back in the European Union.

4:02Andy Burnham:We are partying like it is 2016 again, May the 18th. And we are a month and 10 years away from the Brexit vote. And I guess Wes Streeting is one of those who thinks, look, we have been in a crouched position in the Labour Party for far too long. And this seems like a time to make not just, you know, a change of leader, but a change of argument for where we are now. There are some around Burnham who think it's a carefully placed leg trying to trip him up on his A-road run by making him sort of essentially face down reform in a previously very Brexit voting part of the world in Makerfield in Wigan.

4:48Andy Burnham:And I guess there is an argument for saying that actually Wes is allowing Andy a bit of different space. In other words, Wes Streeting could become the character who says, this is what I want, this is where I'm going. And Andy Burnham becomes the character, you know, as in in the sort of in the contest who says, not now, this is not my priority. Now, just a year ago, Andy Burnham was making what was essentially the same argument. Essentially, he said, not now, but one day. Here's what he said at a fringe event in September of 25. Join the EU or stay out? Long term, I'm going to be honest, I'm going to say it.

5:32I want to rejoin. I hope in my lifetime I see this country rejoin the European Union. I'm absolutely clear about it.

5:40Andy Burnham:Look, I mean, what we should say is that this word prioritisation is going to be doing a lot of heavy lifting in the weeks that come because you've heard from Burnham. He's essentially a Remainer who thinks that we should be back in the EU. You've heard from West Streeting. He is a big time Remainer who thinks we should be back in the year. They're all Remainers. And I think that is fundamental to where the Labour Party is now. There are very few MPs. There are some who are holding down seats in parts of the country where 10 years ago there was a very heavy Brexit vote who think this is the last thing that the Labour Party needs to talk about.

6:12Andy Burnham:but if what is happening now is basically Labour talking to itself and its members they are in the 90s in the late 80s and 90s in favour of remain or whatever we'd call the next state rejoin I guess Well that is the question, they're nearly all Remainers, the question is whether they're all rejoiners and when they might be rejoiners and you're right Emily, in many respects it's a sort of weird row of this because their position is broadly the same as far as we can tell, the question is really one of emphasis and a question of when. And of course, we know that the emphasis is different because the two men are playing different games for different contests.

6:50The reason, I think entirely correctly, that Burnham people are irritated by Streeting is that Streeting is playing a longer game here, which is that he is preparing the way and everything he's done since last week in the way that he resigned has been about anticipating a contest without Burnham in it. Now, that is weirdly, that's ironic because he says, of course, that he is waiting to launch a contest for Burnham to be able to join. Right. He says he's got the numbers. I mean, seems a bit of a weird position to be in if you've got the numbers to launch a contest and you're not doing it. I'm waiting for the guy who can almost certainly beat you.

7:26But there we go. But of course, the truth is, is that Streeting probably doesn't have the numbers right now. And he knows almost certainly that he can't beat Burnham with Labour Party members. So what he is doing is preparing the way with an eye on the Labour Party selectorate, the Labour Party members who would determine such a contest. He knows they're overwhelmingly pro-EU. He knows they're largely concentrated in London. And he is preparing a policy prospectus, a platform on which to run in that Labour Party leadership contest in the event that Burnham loses, that he doesn't win in Makerfield.

8:02He is looking therefore streeting at the electorate of Labour Party members. Burnham, meanwhile, of course, is playing down all this Brexit stuff because he is looking at the electorate, which is the constituency of Makerfield, which is, as you say, is highly Brexit voting. So we will see more of this, I think, of the two men, these two pretenders to the throne vying for the Labour leadership, playing slightly different contests, slightly different games, playing two different audiences. Yeah.

8:29Andy Burnham:And I guess this takes us to the contest of Makerfield itself, which was reforms, I think, 13th closest second place in the election. And in many ways, I guess it is a seat tailor made for reform. It kind of squarely aligns with reforms called vote. 96, 97 % of it is white, a much lower percentage of ethnic minorities. It is older and heavily Lee voting 10 years ago. It ignores one crucial fact, which is that Burnham outperforms the Labour Party hugely. So I think the latest polling I've just had from Luke Trill, actually, I had a little chat with him this morning, is that he outperforms the Labour Party by about, I think, two to one.

9:20So they're hard these days.

9:22Andy Burnham:But I was having a chat with Luke Trill this morning who just put some of this stuff into perspective. The Makerfield by-election forecast that More in Common has run, his polling agency, is with Burnham, Labour gets 45 % and reform gets 42%. In other words, an incredibly narrow victory for Labour or for Burnham, I suppose you'd say, within the margin of error. Without Burnham, they think it is reform 53 percent, Labour 27 percent. In other words, a massive gap between fighting that seat with Burnham at your helm rather than somebody else from Labour. No one else would have a chance. No one else would have a chance.

10:05Andy Burnham:But here's where it gets really interesting. And this was part of the chat I was having with Luke this morning. When we talk about this heavily voting part of the world and heavily Brexit voting part of the world, he reminds us that we are still going off figures that are now a decade old. And he's done some separate modelling to the stuff that he's put here. And he says, we think the vote, the seat would vote narrowly for remain in a rerun of the referendum. Exclamation mark. Now, obviously, the lovely thing about any kind of vote is that they take you by surprise. You do not know what you're going to get.

10:39Andy Burnham:You do not know how the campaigns are going to play out. You don't know the full force that, you know, Brexit ties for us could throw at that seat. We don't know. I mean, none of this is known. But it's interesting that what he's trying to say is don't write off places that might once have been heavily in the Brexit vote area, you know, a decade ago, because so much has changed. We know that the country kind of is not as solidly behind Brexit as it was 10 years ago, partly because of all the shenanigans that we've been through as a result, partly because of the way it was conducted, partly because people have frankly lost faith in any politician saying that they're going to deliver anything now.

11:20Andy Burnham:So I think it is wrong to assume that we would be seeing the same fight as in 2016. I agree. I think it would be a different fight. And I think it would be different, not least because there are certain people associated with Leave and Brexit who would dearly love to relitigate it. And they think it would be even more powerful because their slogan would simply be tell them again. Tell them again. You keep telling them. And those elites just do not listen. and there are people at the top of the Labour Party, particularly in the Red War, who are terrified that it would be like 2019 plus, plus, plus.

11:52Now, you're right, Emily. Look, I'm sort of a bit torn on this because I think the question I think for Labour is both what would the politics be of a sort of more aggressive, you know, friendly EU approach rejoin and is also the right policy? So just thinking about the politics, look, I'm sympathetic to one of West Streeting's arguments, which is to say, look, the Labour Party has got to make some arguments, you know? I mean, I've been someone who for some time has been criticising Starmer for not making enough arguments. Now, a bit hypocritical then to turn around to someone like Streeting and go, right, you're making an argument.

12:24It's shit, shut up. Don't make an argument, shut up, don't say it. And ultimately, you've got to be making an argument in order to win it. Totally get that and understand that, admire that. The question, of course, I think is, is this the right argument at this time for Makerfield, which is so crucial for the Labour Party? We've got to remember what where Streeting's agenda here is. I don't doubt that he believes exactly what he's saying. The question is, is it the right moment in terms of the politics? And we did just see, let us not forget, we did just see a party literally displace the Labour Party in whole sways of the red wall in these recent elections, which until not very long ago was literally called the Brexit Party.

13:06and I think it would be, I am sympathetic to the argument that someone like Jonathan Hinder, the MP for Pendle, has been making which would be a slightly peculiar, very instant flex for the Labour Party's instant response to that to be OK, let's go full on rejoin. I think that there is an argument that can be made and it is absolutely true on the politics before we get to the policy, it is absolutely true that the Labour Party should have been more aggressive for some time including under the Keir Starmer government in going for Farage and pointing out the lies, pointing out the inconsistencies, pointing out the things that have not happened, which he said that he would, because up to now, both he and the architects of Brexit have kind of had a bit of a free pass from many people because they've been afraid of the politics.

13:47But as Linton Crosby, the Tory strategist, used to say, you can't fatten a pig on market day. You've got to make these arguments over time and consistently. And for Labour to suddenly flex very quickly in that way, without making those arguments, I think a lot of people in Maker Furness and people like that will frankly just be bewildered.

14:02Andy Burnham:Look, I think that's why I said, you know, the whole question of priority. Priority is doing a lot of heavy lifting now. And that's what I mean, that when Andy Burnham goes to Makerfield, he's not going to be talking about Brexit for exactly that reason. He just has to say, my colleagues might be saying, you know, this is the time for rejoining. I'm going to concentrate on the cost of living. I'm going to concentrate on the cost of petrol and what your food is costing you in the supermarkets. It's a very easy space, actually, for Andy to do. And I think in a way we'd be naive to think that Wes Streeting not coming into the argument like that would make the Brexit debate go away.

14:36Andy Burnham:Because as we played, well, reform will bring up literally what Burnham said six months ago, eight months ago. Which does tell you something that they're confident on the politics of Brexit still in somewhere like Makerfield that they're willing to bring it up. Although this is what I'd say, right? It worked really well when that was an insurgent idea. Right. When people go, what's it called? Brexit. Oh, what would we call Britain exit Brexit? Oh, what's that? What's that? It was about breaking things. It was about taking the establishment and throwing it in their face, wasn't it? It was about saying, you hate your lives.

15:08Andy Burnham:We're going to give you something different. We're going to tear down the institutions. We're going to tear down everything that doesn't work. And we'll give you something new. Right now, Brexit is the status quo. It is the establishment. It is what we've got. And people are going, hang on a sec. This hasn't got any better. I don't understand. I thought you guys promised that it would all be better. I thought you guys promised that I'd earn more. I thought you guys promised that I'd get better jobs. So actually, the status quo at the moment is what we have. Now, I'm not saying you could argue that this has happened for 100 different reasons, the way it was delivered, the way it wasn't delivered, you know, the red lines, all the rest of it.

15:43Andy Burnham:But right now, if you're a voter saying, you know, being faced with Brexit, you don't think that Brexit is an insurgent, new, radical idea. You think, oh, blimey, not that again, right? And it depends whether you respond to not that again by saying, okay, I want to rip it up or whether you respond to it by saying, just don't talk to me about it again. Let's hear from Robert Jenrick now. Don't forget, he was right inside the Home Office for the Conservatives during the whole immigration debacle and then he hot-footed it to reform, or to be fair, Kemi Baden-Ock fired him from her party when she found out he was thinking of defecting.

16:19Andy Burnham:And this is him now trying to make the case for reform in Makerfield. If Andy Burnham wins, he becomes Prime Minister. And he'll let 1.6 million migrants become British citizens, most of whom pay little or no tax, costing us hundreds of billions. He won't stop the boats or deport those here illegally. He'll cram them in HMOs in places like Wigan. Chamorro next door to me down there. Several over there. One or two down there. He's over six, seven houses. And he won't stop the benefits bill from ballooning either. In fact, he said he wants to increase your taxes to pay for it. He supports increasing income tax, inheritance tax, council tax.

16:57The mayor's tax in Manchester doubled under him. Burnham says he wants to borrow another£40 billion. And even Labour people are saying that this could cause a Liz Truss-style crash. The cost of government borrowing is already surging. Andy Burnham isn't changed. He spent from his 21st to his 45th year here in Westminster. He was a researcher, special advisor, parachuted into a safe seat. He was the health minister who pushed privatising the NHS and PFI contracts and the one that blocked a public inquiry into the Mid Staffs Hospital scandal. And in Manchester, the police fell into special measures and he tried to tax all drivers.

17:34And he kept intervening in national politics. He demanded that men should be allowed into women's spaces and that we rejoin the EU. because obviously what people in Makerfield want is an open border with half a billion people. If he wins, Andy Burnham will be a more human Keir Starmer. That won't fix the challenges our country faces. The only good Labour is no Labour. Vote reform for real change. Vote reform to get Labour out. There he is, well-known anti-establishment figure, Robert Jenrick there.

18:06Andy Burnham:In a suit walking around Westminster. walking around Westminster, a man chastising Andy Burnham for risking a Liz Truss-style meltdown, a government, of course, of which he was a member of him. A man accusing Andy Burnham of being around politics all of his life. Of course, Robert Jenrick literally elected in a by-election in 2014 when he was in his, I think, early 30s at that time. So yes, absolutely. An absolute firebrand and renegade the likes of which we all love to see. Look, I think that politics right now, we just talked about the politics of Brexit. I think for the Labour Party, though, the thing that I'm probably a bit more sceptical even more of is the way in which Brexit for a certain part of the Labour Party does become what it feels like to me is a bit of a kind of get out of jail free card to affect the kind of political change that is clearly deeply necessary, right?

18:52I get the appeal of it. Theoretically, it's cheap. We can apply to join the single market. That should yield growth, you know, reasonably quickly. It is absolutely true to say you talk to businesses small and big. They're still feeling the effects of the trade barriers, the regulatory barriers. It is significant. And I've always said it's like a it's like a puncture in a tyre. It's just slowly the air of the economy, just slowly sort of going out of what of what you might have had. That said, of course, I think the truth is, is that what places like Makerfield and what so much of the country is crying out for and yearning for is genuine policies of economic transformative change.

19:26And for the Labour Party to start basically saying, well, let's reverse back to the status quo ante as we were in as recently, because we didn't properly leave the EU, you know, sort of the organs of the EU, the single market and so on properly until 2021. To then just say, well, we'll just go back to what that is. That to me reveals a kind of dearth, dearth of thinking. And then practically speaking as well, let's be real. You know, what would the terms of rejoin be? they would not almost certainly be the great deal that we had when we left when we were not in Schengen when we had a rebate on the budget when we uh were able to basically opt out of all sorts of things like the eurozone home effect you know the eu would probably be looking to lock us in to make sure that we could never leave again i think most british people the politics of that would be toxic people would find it humiliating and you could absolutely see the prospectus on which Farage or whatever kind of like, you know, beta Farage, you know, Farage 2.0 was existing at that time, what they would run on.

20:26Moreover, frankly, the EU in our absence is one of the reasons I think we were good for the EU and the EU was good for us. The EU in our absence has gone down a far more protectionist, heavily regulatory direction in the years that we've been gone. And we would have to accept all of those things, losing whatever sliver of regulatory benefits we've been able to have on new emergent technologies like AI in the interim. So I have to say, I just think the more and more I think about it, it feels to me more and more like a dead end for the Labour Party in political and policy terms.

20:56Andy Burnham:Look, I think in real terms, we just don't know what the EU would want to charge us to start with and what would it involve and how many things we'd have to give up. I think that's absolutely right. I suppose what's interesting about this moment, though, is it feels to me like a flexing of the Labour muscle, finally. And it's almost like this party has been in a position where they were scared of their electorate. They were scared of voters. If you've got an entire party or entire government now who thinks that that was the wrong decision, where have they been? Right. Where have they been for the last six, eight years?

21:32Andy Burnham:And in a way, the fact that West Streeting has fired the starting gun, although he'd probably say he's always said, I mean, David Lammy said something pretty similar to us in an interview about three months ago. And clearly Andy Burnham was, you know, already onto this a year ago. I think the real question is, like, has the lid just been taken off? People being scared to actually talk about things that they should be talking about and they do care about. Because under what we've had at the moment, there's been this a murder, this kind of like, don't piss anyone off. Don't tell them. Don't don't try and don't scare them.

22:06Andy Burnham:And actually, this does go back to something more fundamental, which is leadership. Right. Do you remember the days when we had? a leader who actually told us what they genuinely believed in. They didn't override a democratic mandate. I think, you know, we understand how important a vote is, but tell us what you genuinely believe in and then let people decide whether they're going to follow you or not. And we haven't really felt that, I think, for a long time. We've just had this sort of like hush, sort of pale hush over the whole question, as if to say, well, you know, don't want to upset anyone.

22:38Andy Burnham:You know, let's not upset anyone. Of course, we need industrialisation. I mean, you know, listening to Lisa and Andy saying Brexit's not going to solve anything. The problem started way before Brexit with de-industrialisation of the North. What's going to happen when it's AI, right? What's going to happen when it's a thousand times faster and worse and nobody has a job, literally nobody, because, you know, we found things to replace all of us. Then you've got something which actually suggests we do need allies. We do need alliances. We do need to know who our friends are. We do need to actually come up with something that is going to pull us all up together, right?