Has Trump invented his peace deal with Iran?

0:28When people turn to telehealth or weight loss, they're looking for real support. It's like you're on this endless helter-skelter ride where you're kind of, things go up really fast and then they come down really fast as well. We are dealing with a guy who is in severe cognitive decline and doesn't really make sense from one moment to another. I wonder how many of his mates knew that this announcement was coming. Does it make it easier for Iran to find an off-ramp? I've got to say something about the morality of this because it is so grotesque. This is a Global Player original podcast. We have had very, very strong talks.

1:08We'll see where they lead. We have major points of agreement. I would say almost all points of agreement. Perhaps that hasn't been conveyed. The communication, as you know, has been blown to pieces. They're unable to talk to each other. But we've had very strong talks. Mr. Whitcoff and Mr. Kushner had them. they went, I would say, perfectly. I would say that if they carry through with that, it'll end that problem, that conflict. And I think it'll end it very, very substantially. We have very much in mind our partners in the Middle East. We've had great relationships with a lot of them, as you know.

1:48Oh boy, where to start? Donald Trump is claiming that he's had talks with Iranian officials which will mark the end of the conflict. Great, but just one problem. The Iranians have denied all knowledge of these talks. So who are we going to believe? So what has changed over the course of a weekend where Donald Trump was promising hell, fire and brimstone? Is he panicking about the level of the oil price? Are these talks substantive or is he bottling it? Welcome to the News Agents.

2:28The News Agents. It's John. It's Maitlis. And where was I? Have you lost your first name? I've lost my first name. Serious times. Serious times. Trump Truth Social Post. I am pleased to report the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East based on the tenor and tone of these in-depth, detailed and constructive conversations, which, W-I-T-C-H, will continue throughout the week. So on the one hand, yay, fabulous. That's what we all want to hear.

3:09We want to hear that peace has been reached in our time. The hostilities are over. No more bloodshed. And yet. And yet. Yeah. And yet you just consider what has happened this weekend. Saturday night, Donald Trump posts that in 48 hours, unless the Strait of Hormuz is opened immediately, I will obliterate Iran's energy infrastructure, their power plants and everything else. Now, leave aside that small question of whether that would constitute a war crime or not. There's a lot of evidence to suggest that it would. Donald Trump was breathing hell, fire and brimstone over Iran. And he was coming to get you and he was going to knock out every power station in Iran and plunge the country into darkness and almost back to the third world.

4:04Except that Iran didn't blink. Except Iran said, yeah, fine, you can do that. But we are going to knock out desalination plants across the Gulf. We are going to blow up power stations ourselves. We are going to attack Israel's energy infrastructure and we may go wider still. Since when we've had that post from Donald Trump saying, oh, well, let's all play nicely together. And we are now in this curious new world where we await verification from the Iranian regime to see whether the US president has been telling the truth. And in the last 28 minutes, the Royal News, which is Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs, quoting Iranian state TV, has just put out their own tweet saying there are no talks between Tehran and Washington.

4:55And you can actually check in real time the Hormuz Straits monitor, which is a way of seeing if anything's actually changed at sea. And it still says restricted. Since March the 2nd, 2026, that's 21 days ago, Iran declared the strait effectively closed to US Western allies, allowing selective passage for non-aligned nations. So there is nothing on Iran's side which suggests that they have come towards any sort of compromise or even that they recognise talks took place. So there are a lot of theories during the rounds now. One is that Trump is actually trying to sort of unilaterally declare peace to drive the price of oil back down to allow him a little bit of thinking time with calmer markets, after which he then chooses to go back and bomb the hell out of Iran anyway.

5:52It's a bit like sort of hiding in a cupboard before saying boo. Right. And the other idea, I guess, and I don't like using the word taco because I think if there's one thing that everyone should chicken out of, frankly, it is a war. But the other thing that you're alluding to is he's got scared. He suddenly realised that he doesn't hold the cards, that they do control the straits, that they are serious when they say they could literally hit every Gulf state salination plant, which makes the Gulf states so angry with America that that whole relationship is lost and that drinking water is lost and that the oil prices remain high and that American consumers are absolutely up the creek.

6:31And he's gone, we can't let this go on. It's like you're on this endless helter skelter ride where you're kind of things go up really fast and then they come down really fast as well. So as a result of this Donald Trump statement today and again, we do not know whether real talks have been taking place. There was nothing when Keir Starmer gave a readout of his conversation with Donald Trump last night to suggest that there were these major talks that had taken place, which could lead to peace. But, you know, it looks like Donald Trump is trying to massage the oil price because he felt it was going too high and obviously worried about US consumers at home.

7:09So oil prices have plunged since Donald Trump said that. The FTSE 100 has gone back up into the into green after Donald Trump suggested that. So, you know, the oil price is down 10 percent to around one hundred dollars a barrel, having been one hundred and fourteen dollars earlier on in the day. So Donald Trump knows what he's doing. You know, I mean, the cynic in me thinks, I wonder how many of his mates knew that this announcement was coming. Just have a look at the insider trading. An insider trading of people who knew that the oil price was about to drop and they'll buy now before the problem comes back.

7:46And, you know, this is so much smoke and mirrors. You know, I mean, forget truth being the first casualty in a war. This is all about stock market manipulation, it feels like, about the manipulation of the crude oil price. And you just wonder whether people are profiteering on this because I don't know and none of us know or have got any reason to believe. I mean, I hope everything is as face value as Donald Trump says it is, that they've been these really constructive talks, that we are on the edge of peace, that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen and we are all going to live happily ever after.

8:23But somehow I'm cynical. Last night, we're told there was a telephone conversation between Keir Starmer, our Prime Minister, and Donald Trump. Obviously, in the context of Donald Trump having previously posted a really unfunny skit from Saturday Night Live, which was kind of trolling... The UK version. The UK version, which was trolling the Prime Minister, who was sort of just recognisable. So Keir Starmer gets on the phone to greet his old ally, Donald Trump. And does he mention that they've been having talks with Iran? Does I mean, would would Keir Starmer come off the call and not say that there had been really helpful developments, constructive developments between America and Iran?

9:05Would he think would he would he be saying, oh, I'll just keep that one quiet for now. I'll just keep that one to myself for now whilst we plan our COBRA emergency meeting. Or would Donald Trump have had these high level secret talks with Iran that he doesn't feel able to share with the UK, to share with allies? None of it is really making sense at this point. You just have to kind of line up the events and try and make sense of it. Saturday night, we're going to obliterate everything. Sunday, Iran says, screw you, we'll obliterate. We can obliterate just as much as you can. And it will be all your allies who will be hit.

9:42Monday, Donald Trump suddenly comes out and says, oh, no, there have been very constructive talks over the weekend. And there's going to be peace in a matter of moments. Doesn't he think that we can check these things? It's a bit like he says, oh, I was talking to former US presidents who all wish that they'd done what I'm doing. It's like, you know, we can ask. Yeah. Right. We can check these things. And so it just, you know, I hate sounding like, oh, God, liar, liar, pants on fire about all of this. And I really hope to God that it's real and that constructive talks have taken place. But there is nothing in the evidence that has been out there so far that would suggest that is the case.

10:22And it looks like it is much more about, one, manipulating oil prices and to the Gulf allies saying you cannot just do this. You cannot blow up the energy infrastructure of Iran because they're going to do the same to us. And where will that leave us? All right. Well, let's ask a bigger question, which is if this is Trump signaling his desire. Right. Which I think on some subliminal level, you have to accept it is he wants the war to end now. Yeah. Does it make it easier for Iran to find an off ramp? Now that Trump has been so explicit, right, now he's said this, Iran has no incentive to confirm the discussions, right?

11:07They can just sort of keep Shdum and let him ramble on, particularly if there haven't been any discussions. But he is talking to Iran, isn't he? He's saying, this is what I am prepared to see now. But it gives the impression then that the people that hold the aces and the kings in their hand are the Iranians. And Donald Trump has got a card of seven sixes and fives. If you listen to Scott Besant yesterday, maybe we can play a clip. He was talking to Kristen Welker on NBC. He was really adamant that Iran had been defeated. And he was really cross with the media for allowing that narrative to become confused.

11:47Just listen to him explaining that. What we have done, there has been a campaign to using military assets to soften up the Iranian fortifications along the strait. That's going to continue until they are completely demolished. And Kristen, let me tell you, whether it's this network or the mainstream press, the American people do not have good framing what is going on here. If you were to read what is happening, and I'm sure when Senator Murphy is on, he has come out and said we are losing the war. That is wrong. We have demolished the Iranian capabilities. Their air force is completely destroyed, Navy destroyed.

12:29And every day we are taking out their missiles, their missile systems and the factories that build those missiles. And now the General Cain, Secretary Hegseth are leading a campaign to destroy all the fortifications along the Straits of Hermos. And what's really interesting is in Scott Besant's words, I don't know whether they know that it's gone really badly wrong and they're having to sort of ask the media to reshape how they're covering it or whether the echo chamber is so confined that they actually look at the sort of products of military defeat of Iran and think, yeah, that that has happened.

13:09Why can't everyone else see it? well I think that it's just impossible for Scott Besant or any other cabinet minister to go out and say anything other than this is all going fantastically well we have destroyed the Iranian armed forces we are winning we are winning so cooking on gas yeah the gas we're cooking with gas and I think that there is a sort of you know that's the land of delusion that we're sort of dealing with with Donald Trump's America where no one can contradict. The fact of the matter is that if it was going so well why is the Strait of Hormuz still shut? Why is there not a single American warship in the Strait of Hormuz to escort tankers?

13:52The reason is it's still too bloody dangerous and the Iranians hold the whip hand there and they are still able to fire missiles despite the extensive degradation of their forces and hit targets not just in the region, but apparently much further afield now with the suggestion that the Iranians attacked Diego Garcia at the weekend. The missile didn't strike, but that suggests that, well, hang on, if Diego Garcia is in the site of Iranian missiles, could London, could Paris, could Berlin be in the site of Iranian missiles as well? And it's not just the range of the ballistic missiles. Frankly, there's the question of Iranian proxies.

14:36And this morning we had a real time attack. 1.30 in the morning. London Fire Brigade is called to Golders Green, the most sort of Jewish centred part of the entire UK, where a voluntary ambulance service, Hatzalah, which is run by Jewish volunteers and financed by Jewish volunteers, which serves all communities, we should say. Yeah, and all religions. And all religions was targeted. Cylinders put inside, vehicles exploded, windows broken in nearby flats, people have been evacuated from their homes in the nearby area. And these attacks are being treated as anti-Semitic hate crime by the Metropolitan Police.

15:18And they've been called out by the Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, as an anti-Semitic attack, a horrific anti-Semitic attack. And I guess the point is, on the one hand, you are saying this is pure and simple anti-Semitism and you have to go after it as a crime in its own right. But you're linking back to these threats from Iran saying we can get you if we want to get you. If this group, and we should say it's an Iran-linked extremist group, which calls itself Ashab al-Yamin, which has claimed responsibility for these attacks and for others around Europe of a similar nature, we should say, if this group is acting on behalf of the Iranian regime, or even if it's not, if it's acting as a proxy who thinks it is doing the work of the Iranian people, then you're into a whole different, I suppose, a whole different area of response, right?

16:09Yeah. I mean, look, let's just, I've got to say something about the morality of this because it is so grotesque. The idea that you want to target the Jewish community, I guess is what you're trying to do. And yet you're doing it through people who save lives, whose only job is to be there as assistance to people who are injured, who are having a heart attack or a stroke and to get them to hospital safely. And you think that is a legitimate military target? Well, that's terrorism. And actually, as we've explained, the Iranian regime has used proxies and terrorism and terrorist proxies like Hezbollah and Hamas and maybe this group al-Shaba al-Yamin for decades right so they they don't think they're playing a fair game they're not interested in playing a fair game they're not checking who was driving an ambulance and who wasn't driving an ambulance they're saying that's how terrorism works yeah but you know look during the troubles in Northern Ireland there would be attempted justifications from the IRA of why that was a legitimate target to have gone after this or that or the UDA would do something very similar Well, it ended up being horses in Hyde Park even then, to be honest.

17:18Even then. But they would say it was a military target. They said there was a, you know, it was the U.S. U.K. military on procession. The idea that you're going after an ambulance service. Oh, my God, it is bloody awful. But I suppose what it underlines, and this is a point that Donald Trump has made to Keir Starmer, is that everyone's involved. This is, you know, Iran is a threat to an awful lot of people. And Iran has been a threat to an awful lot of countries around the world. de-escalate with whoever the regime is, do these proxy groups go away? Not necessarily, right? They might be free actors.

17:51It may be that Iran wants to draw the UK in. It may be that Iran wants to draw other countries in. They do want a regional conflict. This is, you know, they are proselytising and it is a nation that is set up with a revolution in mind of wanting to change the world. And so it's perfectly possible that you're going to see actions from the Iranian state, which are designed to provoke and intimidate. So does that pull the government here in a different direction? Well, let's carry on that conversation about whether Britain is going to get involved now with the business secretary, Peter Kyle.

18:31From a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists. Good morning, I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. There is no question ending the war is the quickest way to reduce the cost of living that is my first instinct my first priority is the best way to help us with petrol and fuel costs for keir starmer to say yes to president trump and send the navy to protect hormuz the fallout of the iran war follow it live on lbc listen on our free global player app or the lbc app when people turn to telehealth or weight loss they're looking for real support that's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com.

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19:42The News Agents. Joining us now is the Secretary of State for Business and Trade. We're going to talk about business and trade in a second, Peter, Kyle. But I do want to start with Trump's social media post this morning. Blockcaps, I am pleased to report that the United States of America and the country of Iran have had over the last two days very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East. your reaction? Two reactions. Firstly, I listened to your show religiously and the number of your shows that I've opened with, we're just going to start with Donald Trump's social media posts, is now a regular feature.

20:23The second thing is we've called from the outset of this conflict for de-escalation to do everything we possibly can to dampen the escalation when we were in that period. So it is very good news that we are now in a phase where there is the possibility for de-escalation. Five days is a good solid chunk of time. Let's just hope that all the parties who are participant in this, in an offensive way, can actually use this five days for productive purposes, and we can start to move to a proper de-escalatory period. And that includes Iran. Don't forget they've acted in a very erratic way. One day they're saying that they are sorry for attacking their neighbours.

21:03Then later that same day they are attacking neighbours. They have acted in a really escalatory way. Let's just hope that Iran grabs this opportunity with both hands. Iran's saying there was no direct or indirect contact with Trump. I mean, is there a chance that Trump was making a market play, trying to lower the cost of oil? Or do you, I mean, you will know that conversation with Keir Starmer last night. Was this disgust? Was the de-escalation and the fact he was going to post this and call off the war disgust? i'll just talk to about what is public donald trump has made the offer and now that i would recommend that iran tests whether this is sincere or not the only way to do that is by engaging with the offer that is on the table right now i am not in the business of predicting donald trump's strategy via his rhetoric but what i have done since the start of donald trump's second term which is when of course has coincided with me being in government is i've always stayed very very focused on what he does rather than what he than the rhetoric he uses he is the most astonishing user of rhetoric and it often dominates debate and actually what he does do behind the scenes or does do discreetly is often overlooked at the expense of what the rhetoric is so in this case we know what he does he's been bombing Iran indeed no indeed I'm not saying that's just just about this but now he said this publicly let's just grab it with both hands okay so so you you You just kind of said that you are an assiduous listener of the news agents, for which thank you.

22:39And you said that we start with a lot of Donald Trump's social media posts. Do you not take them seriously? In which case, why should we take this one seriously? Well, I'm the Secretary of State for Trade for our country. I am leading negotiations with the United States on a whole series of issues. And I am more often asked about his social media posts than I am about the deals we actually deliver. and quite often, particularly in the autumn it was put to me lots of posts that he was putting up there that was challenging to Britain, that was challenging to Europe and lots of other things and in that same period we got deal after deal after deal across the line.

23:19You have just said that the Iranians are behaving erratically I mean couldn't you say they're exactly the same about Donald Trump and America? Well, as I said, he uses rhetoric in a quite assertive, unconventional way that I've never experienced before. Two days ago, he was threatening to bomb the living daylights out of all the power stations. Now he's saying there's going to be peace in our time. What I can speak to is what the British government does. And thank God we have Keir Starmer that takes a cool, calm look at these situations and acts in national interest. So, look, I can't speak for America.

23:52You've just spoken for Iran behaving erratically. Don't you think America has behaved erratically as well? I have said that we look at the acts and we adjust accordingly. We will always act in the national interest. I focus in every relationships, of course, don't forget, with the administration. So we also pick up the phone and all through the difficult trade times, the talks that we've had, they have never not picked up the phone. They've never not had a very, very blunt conversation. They put America first. I act in Britain's interest every step along the way. but we have always been able to find mutual agreement when it comes to trade and getting deals across the line and those deals have always been honoured.

24:30Now look, in this period we're in... I suppose I'm just interested in that you're quite willing to say that the Iranians behave erratically and when I put it to you that what Donald Trump has done has been in the conduct of this campaign with the kind of differing goals and aims of the campaign, the different strategies, that he has been erratic too. you can't bring yourself to say yep america is erratic what i'm trying to do is is is firstly act like i'm in government and not a commentator and i've said very clearly we look very much about what trump actually does we have because we are in government we will have a lot of conversations with our counterparts in the united states administration and we will be very very up front with the administration about what our domestic aims are what our view is when we can and can't participate.

25:20And in all terms, whether it is tariffs or whether it is conflict, we act to stabilise, to de-escalate and establish relationships that are as enduring and to the mutual benefit of America, Britain and, of course, our allies. Because when America and Britain has functional relationships where we strike deals and stick to those deals, it creates more stability. Now, all I urge... So Iran is erratic in America, isn't it? All I urge is that people don't always focus on the rhetoric, which he uses to astonishing effect, but look very, very much at where the action is. Now, of course, when it comes to the action in Iran, we've been very, very clear.

26:04Very, very clear. And I'm really proud that we have Keir Starmer running the country right now and not Kemi Badenoch. Peter, doesn't this go to the heart of it, though, really? You're talking about the rhetoric, not the actions. If you look at the actions, there's been a military campaign against Iran. There has been a tariff assortment that has been pretty hard to understand or calculate. You have been trying to deal with a bloke for reasons we all understand, who is at best suffering cognitive decline, let's say, and at worst, possibly a monster. And you have to reshape the entire UK economy around what he might or might not do.

26:44It's not enough to say it's just rhetoric, because you know as well as I do that Rachel Reeves is facing possibly the highest borrowing costs that we've had since the financial crash, that you're looking at a Cobra contingency plan of what to do if fuel runs out, that you're trying to work out if you're sending ships to our military bases or not. This is not rhetoric. It does literally impact every single facet of government policy right now. I'll just be really clear what I'm saying. Donald Trump uses rhetoric very powerfully. But it's not just the rhetoric, that's what I'm saying. He is making you change your ways as a government.

27:20From the very, very beginning of the transition period, we were encouraged to engage in everything he said, whereas focusing on where he's actually heading and what he will actually do has delivered for Britain. Now, I do loads and loads of interviews. it is very rare I'm asked to like you just have to focus on what he has done or what he's doing in this moment compared to actually what he's saying on social media. And I'm sorry, even in times like this, it's hard to avoid the fact that he's just bombed Iran. I mean, that is the elephant that's in the face. That's what I'm here to talk about. And this is a great example because, you know, he's been talking about Iran for a very long time.

28:04And we've been trying and we've we have acted to make our views known. We have been very clear about what we will and won't do. And from the very, very start, we have been very clear that we will act defensively and we will not act aggressively in this war. And that is what we've done all the way through. Except that distinction, sorry, forgive me, that distinction, which every minister has made on air repeatedly, might sound right in your head. But it might not make any difference to what the Iranians hear. and this is not me trying to jump on the Iranian side but we've seen what happened in North London today.

28:42We've seen the attack on an ambulance service for God's sake, right? We know that an Iran-related group has taken responsibility. There is no evidence one way or another. You talk about this massive difference between offensive and defensive but what if the enemy isn't hearing that at all? There is a huge difference between the two and Iran will interpret what they want and I can't speak for how the Iranians will view this but we have been explicit in our language and our deeds. We are protecting British people, British interests and we will protect and use our assets as wisely as we can to make sure that our partners for whom we have commitments to protect those commitments are honoured and, of course, first and foremost, British people.