Has Trump just capitulated to Iran?

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0:39Lewis Goodall:And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research, ask the right questions, then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details. This is a Global Player original podcast. We have been, all of us, really, at the end of a massive Trump whim. Hexith has said that it's sort of total victory and whatever, and J.D. Vance has said that as well. Everyone knows this is a disaster for America.

1:21Lewis Goodall:The Iran problem has paused for now, but the Trump problem hasn't. I'm not saying this with any relish by the way that the Americans have been humbled in this way. Like, I don't want the Iranian regime to survive. We're looking at an absolute mess. President Trump forged this moment. Iran begged for this ceasefire, and we all know it. As a president truth this morning, a big day for world peace. Iran wants it to happen. They've had enough. Operation Epic Fury was a historic and overwhelming victory on the battlefield. A capital V military victory. So frat boy Pete first out of the traps and he's confirming what we all know, which is that Trump won the war.

2:10Yay!

2:11Lewis Goodall:But as the world wakes up to this ceasefire, a ceasefire which appears to be on worse terms for the Americans than it was before the war, there is one simple question on everyone's lips. Did Iran win? And did Trump blink? Welcome to the News Agents.

2:37Lewis Goodall:The News Agents. It's Maylis. It's Lewis. And it's John in Washington, D.C. And I arrived last night, ten and a half hours after Donald Trump had promised a whole civilization will die today, never to be brought back again. He blinked. He was the first out of the traps to sign a ceasefire deal that had been negotiated by the Pakistani prime minister. and Donald Trump more or less immediately said, yes, yes, I'll sign up to that, demanding that in return, Iran had to open immediately and unconditionally the Strait of Hormuz. There was then a long pause where we waited for Iran to give its reaction.

3:22And sure enough, it came. But if you look at what the Iranian statement said, it said, yeah, we'll open the Strait of Hormuz. But any ships passing through it have to liaise with Iran's military. You didn't have to do that before this whole affair started. And so that central question of who has blinked, who has capitulated, is very striking arriving in America this morning and watching Trump friendly outlets. They're not lording this as a great victory for the United States of America.

3:54Lewis Goodall:I think all we need to do to answer that question about who at this stage of this ceasefire, at the end of 40 days of war where thousands of Iranians have been killed, 13 American servicemen and women as well killed, is simply to examine, John, as you've already alluded to, what did the status quo ante look like? and what is the status quo now? Well, before this war started, let's remember that Iran was probably its weakest, it had been for at least a decade. Its proxies, thanks to American and Israeli military action, had been degraded across the region. Its nuclear program, by the Americans' own estimation, had either been obliterated, but let's be more realistic, you know, slowed down substantially.

4:37Lewis Goodall:They wanted a deal. They were at the table and it was a deal that by all accounts and all reporting was largely on US terms. And the straits, as you said, John, were open to international shipping. Where are we today? Well, we are in a situation where the gut, the strait is not open, is now being regulated and controlled by the Iranians. And we are charging a fee for it. Yes, the Ayatollah is gone, but he's simply been replaced by his son. There has been no regime change, whatever the nonsense Lord Haw Haw we were hearing from, from Pete Hexeth, or whatever Trump said, there is no regime change.

5:12Lewis Goodall:Before the regime appeared to be on its last legs, you had thousands and thousands taking to the streets. Over the last 24 hours, yes, maybe at the behest of the regime, but we saw young people across Iran surrounding power plants and bridges to protect them from American attack. European-US relationship has been fractured, and the Gulf allies of the United States are suddenly thinking, you know where we don't want to sit anymore? Under the US security umbrella. The fact of the matter is, is that this was a war of choice, And right now, with the status quo as we have right now, it is a war which has led to a position where Iran is stronger.

5:47Lewis Goodall:And there can be no doubt that everyone has seen the limits of American power and therefore it is weaker. I think that is right. Whatever frat boy Pete tries to tell us that Trump has truthed, the Europeans are seeing it for what it is. and they are saying it out loud. We've heard from Denmark's foreign minister this morning and he put out a post saying, the world is a better place than yesterday, undoubtedly. But is it better than 40 days ago? Doubtful. Pedro Sanchez, Spain's prime minister, who has really been at the sort of hard end of the Trump critics. And he said, the momentary relief cannot make us forget the chaos, the destruction and the lives lost.

6:33The government of Spain will not applaud those who set the world on fire just because they show up with a bucket. And I do think that sort of encapsulates where we are, that we have been, all of us really, at the end of a massive Trump whim, not win. And he has taken us around the houses. He's shown us what his firepower looks like. He's shown us what he might do. He's destroyed many, many lives in the process. He's destroyed relationships, as you said, Lewis, in the process. And where are we now? We're looking at an absolute mess. And America is trying to salvage something from it. But I do think that the big question here is about Trump still, about his sanity and about his credibility, because there is nothing to stop this happening again and again and again.

7:30Yes, the Iran problem has paused for now, but the Trump problem hasn't. The supine Congress problem hasn't. The is anyone going to tell him this is a bad idea hasn't. The problem has gone for now, but it has properly opened up a debate about what on earth they're going to do with the guy at the centre. Well, Emily, further to that, we've just seen a a tweet, a post from Laura Loomer, who was one of the Trump acolytes. And the reality is these negotiations are awful for America and they only embolden the terrorist regime in Iran. Luckily, she says, President Trump wasn't in charge of the negotiations, which is what people always do when they want to seek to protect Donald Trump.

8:14Everyone knows this is a disaster for America. And you just do a simple audit of the things they talked about at the start of the war 40 days ago. and where we are today. Have Iran agreed to do anything about their 970 pounds of enriched uranium that they've got underground? No, they haven't done anything. Have they promised not to carry on enriching uranium? No, they haven't done that either. Has there been a regime change? Well, the leadership has gone, but there is a new IRTOLA in charge and the IRGC are still in place. So that hasn't changed. Has Iran agreed to curb its ballistic missile program?

8:50No, none of that either. And so there is all this wishful thinking and talking from Donald Trump about, oh, how we're going to get an agreement on their enriched nuclear material. They will never get a nuclear weapon. Iran hasn't agreed to any of that. And having seen stock market surge and oil prices fall as a result of this, even if the Iranians are in breach of the ceasefire deal, such as it is that Pakistan have brokered, is America going to start bombing again? America was looking for a way out when Donald Trump made that preposterous kind of genocidal statement yesterday. The reaction was such that he was desperate to find a hook from which he could extract himself after having put himself on it so firmly.

9:39And I think that, you know, the questions about Donald Trump, look, at the moment, it is just the Democratic Party are saying we need to invoke the 25th Amendment. He's mentally unstable. He's not fit for office. I don't see anyone yet seriously breaking ranks on the Republican side who would be in a position to force any of that because it has to be the vice president. It has to be the cabinet. It then needs to get congressional approval. And I still think that for all the questions rightly raised about the mental state of Donald Trump, we are a long way from anything like that happening.

10:12Lewis Goodall:I think that Donald Trump, he so often tries to set himself up as a kind of, you know, Roman emperor. But I think what this crisis, what this war of choice has shown is he's far more like the Wizard of Oz. There is less to him than meets the eye. There is less to his power than meets the eye in the sense that all he had to do, I mean, if we take what were his aims for this war? And obviously these aims have shifted over time. So they are a bit nebulous. But I think the best we can do is take day one, the day one aims, go back to February the 28th. And we did that special show on the Saturday or Sunday, whatever it was, Sunday, I think.

10:47Lewis Goodall:He made a speech where he was absolutely explicit. He said, this is about destroying the what remains of the Iranian nuclear program. It's about regime change called on the Iranians to rise up, and they must unconditionally surrender. None of those things have been achieved. In fact, most of those things, if those were the aims, have been put into reverse. Just consider what the core Iranian demands that Trump has said just today, since he's got up this morning, are the basis for these negotiations. The Iranians are talking about sanctions relief immediately, security guarantees from the US, recognition of Iran's regional role, the Americans pulling out of bases in the Middle East, and control or leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, as well as limits on nuclear concessions.

11:36Lewis Goodall:Most of these things would have been off the table only 40 days ago. So the position that Trump has got himself to is that throwing all of that, by the way, into the mix as well, he got there by making what was a genocidal threat for the whole of the world to see, a genocidal threat against an entire civilisation, which, of course, is now being heralded by many of his acolytes as the thing that has unlocked it. But as you say, John, the truth is what he really needed, which he's availed himself of, is an off ramp. This is a guy and I do think we need to take this seriously now. You know, Donald Trump is acting more erratically, more insanely than even than he's ever has before.

12:18Lewis Goodall:Way more insanely than he did in the first Trump term. You know, this is a guy who this time yesterday was threatening genocide against the entire people and their government. Today, what is he saying? He's saying, actually, we might work with them to basically set up a joint tolling operation in the Strait of Hormuz. This isn't just, I mean, it's funny in that way that Trump is, but it's not funny. He is off the reservation in a really serious way. And I think it does really, it really poses serious questions, which we can talk about to Britain and European powers. All the talk of the special relationship and keeping him sort of within the alliance.

12:53Lewis Goodall:I think that's for the birds now. The guy's lost it. yeah uh look i don't know if you canceled dinner plans tonight did you i mean were we did we sort of literally go to bed thinking well the world could end tomorrow i bet iranians did or some lots did they did i mean a lot of people in tehran left right they fled their homes they they left the capital city because frankly it's probably a bluff it's 90 a bluff but it's 10 percent of like oh well I've just pressed the button anyway you know you never know and and you've gone through some of the Iranian demands it's worth I think putting that in uh context because Iran has come to this deal with a full wish list they've got a 10 point plan they've they've clearly worked out that Trump loves to see things in terms of of a pointed plan and so they've asked for a complete and permanent end to the war in Iran what does that mean does it mean like nothing ever again.

13:49I don't know. I don't know how America or Trump signs that off. Iran to maintain sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. Now, look, I do think that's really kind of key and really serious, but also quite funny, because Iran is sitting here having taken from Trump the lesson that he gave the world last year, which is, you know what, you can charge for things. You can be transactional. I like tariffs. The guy likes tariffs. And now Iran's kind of saying, you've got to pay the troll toll, right? You know, you've got to pay the troll toll. We're in charge of Hormuz. We're going to decide what ships go through.

14:27They've already started allowing certain sort of friendly carriers through. I think India's got a deal now. China, we know, has had a deal before. Thailand, I think, has been sort of, you know, in that sort of nebulous place of light where you can go through. But essentially, if Iran is now asking for reparations for the war, which, you know, America is never going to pay, they just turn it on its head and say, well, obviously, we've, you know, we've got to rebuild the city somehow. Do you mind if we charge you$2 million a ship to come through? and there is this phrase about the price of oil. I mean, yes, you know, there's been a lot of excitement on the markets this morning because Brent crude has gone down 13%.

15:05It's now, I think, 95 % a barrel, but that is based on sentiment and the phrase that people use when they're talking about the oil markets is rockets and feathers. In other words, it goes up really quickly, but it comes down like a feather really slowly. If they're now charging for every tanker to get through, you know and i i bandy around two million because that's the one figure that i've that i've read okay i don't know if there is negotiation in that then the oil's not really ever going to get back

15:35Lewis Goodall:again well not just because so much of the energy infrastructure has already been damaged you know this ain't clicking back overnight the economic effects of this are going to be with us for months and years so we're talking about you know a third of a of an increase anyway on the oil price if it does start to come down, it's still going to be higher than it was, right? So that's where we are right now. A couple of the other things. They've also asked America, this is Iran's 10-point plan, they've asked America to get rid of all their bases in the region, right, in the Middle East. And essentially, American bases circle Iran.

16:08I can't see Trump agreeing to that. And they want to carry on, as you've said, enriching Iranians. They don't even want the IAEA, you know, the sort of the energy watchdog looking over them. So are they just are they trolling him now? Are they expecting this? Is Trump in a place where he has to agree to it? Because, you know, he wants the ceasefire.

16:27Lewis Goodall:Well, Hegseth has said that it's sort of total victory and whatever. And J.D. Vance has said that as well. Like there would be a very simple litmus test and metric for proving that true or untrue, which is if it were true, the Iranians would be handing over the uranium right now. And they're not. It completely and I think that you know Lewis you spoke a moment ago about the kind of the fracturing of the alliance You know with European nations and the Western alliance and you know to think that it's coming back is for the birds What do you think it's like in those Gulf countries that thought they were under an American protection scheme?

17:03That America was their kind of fire insurance company that would always be there to protect them And if you're Kuwait and if you're Bahrain or you're the UAE or you're the Saudi Arabia or you're Qatar, you're now looking at America and thinking, what the freaking hell have you done? You have emboldened Iran. You have shown Iran the power. You have completely punctured the illusion of the Gulf states being this wonderful, low tax safe haven where you can have big yachts and shiny hotels and live the life of kind of Riley without having any of the fears of being in the Middle East. That is gone.

17:43That is absolutely destroyed. And they look to America and think, OK, well, you've just agreed a ceasefire, which we're really grateful for because we can start selling oil again. But Iran is in a position now where it is very much emboldened. Lewis, you asked a question about whether we all went to bed last night or Emily, you asked a question about whether we went to bed last night, kind of fearful that it was the end of the world. Let me just tell you, on the plane coming over to Washington from London, one of the British Airways cabin crew comes over to me and says, oh, my God, I listened to Lewis's show on LBC yesterday and I thought we're all going to die.

18:16And I didn't want to come on this trip. And the rest of the crew. That's how to keep the listeners. Yeah, exactly. So you made everyone think that they're going to die. And then and then she says, oh, I listen to the news agents all the time and la la la la la. And I was she was. Did she say that? La la la la la. Yeah. La la la la la la la. Great. And she came over for regular updates so that she could then update the crew on what was happening. So the idea that there is a serious point here, the idea that you don't get that in economy, do you? Yeah, exactly. The idea that there is just this kind of group of people who talk to themselves and the rest of the world was watching on kind of disinterested.

18:51I think it's complete bullshit. I think everyone was feeling very fearful about what Donald Trump had said yesterday. And I think, you know, will Keir Starmer think he ever made a better decision than to put distance between himself and America over this whole military adventure? Apparently, Trump is meeting Mark Rutter today, the NATO Secretary General, to complain about the lack of support he had from the NATO countries. Well, not bloody surprising. Todd, did they give you the tannoy at any point? Did they ask you to go up after the seatbelt announcement? This is John Sopel. Hi, it's John. No Emily, no Lewis, but here's the latest on the Gulf War.

19:29Lewis Goodall:No, I didn't do that. Right, we'll be getting more updates from the BA cabin crew right after this.

19:55Lewis Goodall:There is a ceasefire for two weeks between the U.S. and Iran. Did Trump blink first? The fallout of the Iran war. Follow it live on LBC. Listen on our free global player app or the LBC app. When people turn to telehealth or weight loss, they're looking for real support. That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com. Orderlymeds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzeptatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience, and all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research, ask questions, then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer.

20:32That's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Now medical advice eligibility required. See site for details.

20:45Lewis Goodall:The News Agents. The final point that I'll say about this is the President of the United States has told me, and he's told the entire negotiating team, the Secretary of State, the Special Envoy Steve Whitcoff, he said, go and work in good faith to come to an agreement. That is what he has told us to do. If the Iranians are willing in good faith to work with us, I think we can make an agreement. If they're going to lie, if they're going to cheat, if they're going to try to prevent even the fragile truths that we've set up from taking place, then they're not going to be happy. Because what the president has also shown is that we still have clear military, diplomatic, and maybe most importantly, we have extraordinary economic leverage.

21:29Lewis Goodall:So the president has told us not to use those tools. He's told us to come to the negotiating table. But if the Iranians don't do the exact same thing, they're going to find out that the president of the United States is not one to mess around. So that's J.D. Vance showing how you negotiate in good faith by accusing the other side of lying and cheating first up as they're about to come to the table. Vance, I think notably, was not actually part of these negotiations, as had been promised when a ceasefire was first mooted some two weeks ago. He's actually speaking from Hungary, where, as we mentioned yesterday, he's been at the side of Viktor Orban, who is the prime minister now fighting essentially to continue his political life in Sunday's elections.

22:17And so the fact that Vance wasn't really at the negotiating table suggests to me that they didn't see a place for Americans at all in bringing about the necessary conditions for even this temporary truce. It was all done through Islamabad, through Pakistan, Asim Muneer, Pakistan's military chief, is basically the one acting as the middleman trying to get the sides together. And we should say that there are parts of the Iran 10 point plan, which even at the first hurdle are looking incredibly, incredibly fragile. and one is their demand that Israel leaves Lebanon, that military action stops there.

23:08And Netanyahu's just said, uh-uh, no, we're not signing up to that.

23:11Lewis Goodall:Indeed. And what's been happening in southern Lebanon hasn't probably received as much attention as it ought to have done because of the wider events going on in Iran. But, you know, whole communities are basically being flattened in southern Lebanon. Tens of thousands of people are being forced to leave their homes as part of Israel's war on Hezbollah. Hezbollah, but it is inevitably taking in huge numbers once again of innocent civilians. And yeah, Netanyahu is being clear that that might continue. What's so frustrating about listening to Vance, of course, is that he's talking about getting back around the negotiating table with the Iranians.

23:46Lewis Goodall:And what's so sort of maddening about that is, of course, that is where this all began. It didn't just start there 40 days ago, but it also started there 10 years ago with the JCPOA and the Obama era deal. And guess what? Guess what? This entire war was basically predicated on the idea that you didn't need to have a deal with the Iranians because you could force them to the table militarily and thereby you could get a far better deal than you would through the JCPOA or whatever deal it happened to be. That has been proven to be demonstrably and clearly false. And after all of this, they're going to have to get around once again the table with the Iranians trying to get what they want on Israeli security, on uranium enrichment and the rest of it.