Has Trump just ended the 'Special Relationship'?

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1:02Jon Sopel:This is a Global Player original podcast. President Trump has expressed his disagreement with our decision not to get involved in the initial strikes. But it is my duty to judge what is in Britain's national interest. That is what I've done and I stand by it. For the last 15 months, Keir Starmer has been a Donald Trump whisperer. He has placed enormous political capital in managing his relationship with a quixotic American president. That appears to have come to an end. It's not quite clear yet whether Keir Starmer is dumping Trump or Trump is dumping Starmer. But the words between the two are hardly warm and there's not much of a special relationship in any of it.

1:55Jon Sopel:Welcome to the News Agents.

2:01The News Agents. It's John. It's Lewis. And what we've seen over the course of the last 48 hours or so since the Americans began their military operations in Iran is bit by bit a gap, slender at first, and now really quite substantial, emerge between the UK government and the US. We've seen the evolution, as we were talking about yesterday, of the position, which is initially that the government, the British government, has refused to say whether they believe that the action is legal. They initially refused to allow the Americans to use our military assets in the region. That changed yesterday when they were asking for help repelling Iranian missiles against American targets and others in the region.

2:48But Keir Starmer has gone into the House of Commons and made it very clear that he disagrees with the idea of trying to impose regime change from the air and made it as clear, I think, as he probably can that he doesn't think that this action is legal. that relationship has now worsened again just today with keir starmer being accused by donald trump in an interview with the sun newspaper of putting the special relationship in peril he said that starmer's stance this is trump has said that starmer's stance on iran has not been helpful and suggested even that his position could be very trump in this could be might be because he's worried about the reaction from muslim voters he said he's not been helpful that i never thought i'd see that i never thought i'd see that from the uk it's very sad to see that the relationship i the so-called special relationship is not what it was it feels to me that this is the biggest fissure between the uk and the us on a matter of foreign policy

3:47Jon Sopel:for a generation yeah i think that's right i think it's pretty remarkable not to see donald trump criticizing kia starmer because you know if you ever do anything that donald Trump doesn't like, he's going to criticise you. That goes with the territory. But for Keir Starmer to have opened up the space where Donald Trump can criticise, that is a calculation on Keir Starmer's part. He would not have entered it lightly. He would have thought very carefully about it. And he is now in a position where he finds himself at odds with other allies, the Canadians, the Australians, the French who are sounding more sympathetic, Chancellor Meurs, as the German Chancellor who is going to the White House today, who are all being more supportive.

4:33Jon Sopel:And Britain is arm's length. And look, we all know Keir Starmer, the lawyer, Keir Starmer, the barrister. And we know how important that is. And on this question of international law, where you have Keir Starmer now is tacitly saying, you know what, we do not think and although they won't say this bit out loud, we do not think that the American action is lawful. And it's absolutely true to say there has been no congressional vote to approve the action in Iran. And there has certainly been no UN resolution tabled by the US that could act as justification for what the US and Israel are doing. I think that this goes to the heart of who Keir Starmer is.

5:16Yeah. I think that there have been many people who throughout the course of the Trump administration have wanted Starmer to be more truculent with the American president, have wanted him to be firmer. Starmer generally speaking has tried to manage this relationship as best he can I think the reason that we're a point of divergence on this is simply because it is almost impossible to overstate how different they see the world i.e. Starmer and Trump on this question which is that you know we've heard Trump say this we've heard Pete Hegseth talk about it yesterday sort of being very dismissive, blithely sort of setting to one side the question of the legality.

5:58Well, Trump can do that because that's not how he sees the world. We've talked about it so many times on this show that he sees the world through a very traditional 19th century type prism of might is right, strength is all. And that America can do what it wants because it can do it, because it has the military hard power to do what it wants. and everybody else either needs to get on board or get out of the way. For Starmer, and indeed the questions of international law, it's not just that they're inconvenient or irrelevant, but for MAGA and for Trump, they're expressions of a world order that they completely reject, that they think it's an example of the globalism that they're in politics to destroy.

6:42For Starmer, by contrast, international law is at the centre of his political worldview. People will often say that Starmer has no politics. It is true that he's pretty, let's put it this way, nimble, light on his feet across a whole kind of suite of domestic political arrangements. But I suspect that if you were to cut Keir Starmer open, you would find right at his heart the question of international law and for him the sanctity of international law. What you've got is two basically completely incompatible ways of seeing the world. And that is what I think is at the heart of this and why he is being more exacting and willing to be more aggressive than we've ever seen him with Trump before.

7:22Jon Sopel:Look, he came into politics after the Iraq war, but he was vocal on it at the time in 2003 and talking about the fact that there wasn't proper legal cover because there hadn't been a second UN resolution that would authorise the military action that Britain took part in. and he also looks at Tony Blair's premiership which was marked by some extraordinary successes and of course you know in pure electoral terms winning three consecutive general elections is testament to how successful Tony Blair was but the stain on Tony Blair's record is the Iraq war where people look back at that and say why did you go along with George W Bush why did Britain agree to be alongside when there hadn't been a second-due resolution.

8:13Jon Sopel:And Tony Blair was kind of pretty opaque about the legal backing that he got. Tony Blair, it should be added, another barrister, but one who practised it for a very short time before he went into politics. Whereas Keir Starmer had been a barrister for years and, you know, head of the ground prosecution service for years. And so I think they have a different view. So Starmer looks at it through a political lens as well about the damage that it did. And, you know, for all the people that are kind of hyperventilating about what has Starmer done, just in reality terms, what would Britain's military add to this operation?

8:53Jon Sopel:I mean, at the margins, a bit of tiny bit of extra firepower. But, you know, America has got so much more weaponry, so much more capability militarily than the British do, that frankly it would be purely symbolic and I think for Starmer he thought I don't want to be part of this symbolism I do think John that this is the other thing I think it's partly about diverging world views and I think you're right it's also about for the Labour Party in particular for a Labour Prime Minister the longest of long shadows of Tony Blair in Iraq and Iraq even though you know it is now over 20 years ago since that war began it continues I think in so many ways to haunt British politics, haunt British statecraft, and in particular haunt the Labour Party for all of Blair's other achievements.

9:42So I think, you know, I was so struck, and we've talked about it a bit over the last few days, but my word, I've been so struck, particularly in the last 24 hours, listening to Marco Rubio, listening to Pete Hegseth, striking quite a different tone than Trump did at the weekend where he was talking about regime change, trying to sort of, you know, Iranians calling on them to... The people seize back your country. Yeah, you ever wanted a generation, opportunity, all that kind of stuff. over the last 24 hours in particular it has sounded just like Iraq talking about weapons that might be able to hit the continental United States saying that we only have a few years before they will have the sorts of weapons technologies that will be able that will make them impervious from American incursions.

10:21We've got to act now because if we don't act now then we won't be able to stop them. And unlike Iraq there is not even the semblance of something that Blair was in fairness to him instrumental in bringing about, there is not even the semblance of looking for an international imprimatur of legality, i.e. going to the United Nations, sending the weapons inspectors in and so on. Now, you can make an argument that stuff didn't matter very much in the end when the Americans wanted to do it. But nonetheless, there is not even any international process or build up to this stuff in particular. What there simply is, is almost out of nowhere with these negotiations having gone on for a while, Trump waking up in the morning and deciding this is what we're going to do.

10:55And I am not surprised, therefore, I am not surprised that for a Labour Prime Minister, particularly one of his pedigree that they would have been extremely reluctant or at the very least very sceptical of getting on board not least not least when as we discussed yesterday not least when the rationale the mission for this incursion for this operation appears so fluid appears to be shifting hour by hour and week by week and I suppose the question for the British government would have to be and this is where it gets really like Iraq 2002, Iraq 2003. And I want to hear, I've not heard a minister be asked this yet.

11:35You know, what is our assessment of Iranian military capabilities and what they think they will be in two years, three years, five years? If the Americans are right that they're going to have this technology and they're going to be this huge threat, then maybe that's something that we consider. But there hasn't been that argument made over even the kind of short to medium term. And as we've said, you know, we only have to go back six, nine months. And Netanyahu and the Americans were telling us that they had destroyed the Iranian nuclear capability. So I'm not surprised with all these people having a go at Starmer.

12:10I'm not surprised that he is taking a moment to really consider this very deeply as well he should.

12:15Jon Sopel:Look, you've talked about the fact that we've heard from Hegseth, we've heard from Trump, we've heard from Rubio. The more they speak, the less clear it gets about what on earth this is all about. because you have got Hegseth saying the Iranians started it. No, they didn't. America fired the first weapons, fired the first missiles, and so did Israel. You've got Trump saying it's about something different. And you've got Rubio saying we're actually doing this because Israel were going to attack anyway, so we kind of fell in behind them because if we hadn't, American assets in the region would have been more vulnerable and the casualty list higher.

12:53Jon Sopel:And, John, that's all mad. It's all bonkers. The chaos that has been unleashed. I don't think you were right. Both you and I are instinctively pro-American. We're pro-the transatlantic alliance. It's not like we're coming at this from a classic kind of sort of left-wing, deep scepticism of America as an imperial power. Neither of us are like that. And likewise, I think we'd be both reasonably hawkish about the question of Iran. If there is a real serious threat, then it would have to be dealt with. But when you consider the chaos this is unleashing, virtually every country in the Middle East at the moment, whether they wanted this war or not, is under attack.

13:22We've got hundreds of thousands of Westerners basically stranded across the Gulf with no real means of taking them out. Oil and gas prices are now up by approaching 100 percent. And we're not entirely clear what for or what the end game is. And then there are all these people, basically not learning any of the lessons, for example, of Iraq, turning around going, why aren't we part of this? Or why is Starmer not acting more quickly?

13:44Jon Sopel:I find it astonishing. Look, the legacy of Iraq, I mean, we're not a history podcast, but honestly, the legacy of Blair and Iraq would have been entirely different had the planning for post getting rid of Saddam been better. Now, what is the plan if the Iranian regime falls? Who have the Americans been courting, been tutoring, been preparing for government? Nobody. There is nobody. They want another hard liner to emerge who will run Iran like you've got in Venezuela, but be a bit more friendly to Uncle Sam. There is no difference. And so I think that Blair would have been treated more kindly if the nation building had been better in Iraq and Iraq had transformed into a more peaceful thing.

14:30Jon Sopel:What the folly is that is being repeated is you are starting something without any clear end plan whatsoever. And in that context, you begin to understand why Starmer is taking the stance that he is taking. I'd be very interested about opinion polling on this, about whether Starmer actually, who we have decried repeatedly on this podcast for not having a fine political antennae, has got the feeling of this one right. Well, it's actually really interesting. There's all of this criticism, absolutely bizarrely coming from in particular, or we saw it from Trump, but others on the right as well, saying that the reason that Starmer is doing this is because he's afraid of Muslim voters or whatever.

15:12A, that is just absurd. I mean, just absolutely ridiculous. I mean, I think if Keir Starmer had been that afraid of Muslim voters, he might have had a rather different policy, for example, on Gaza over the course of the last sort of two and a half years. I don't think many Muslim voters are turning around and going, oh, we really love what Keir Starmer has been doing. So this is sort of nonsense from the beginning and it's just this classic kind of reactionary stuff, which we're seeing loads of, which is basically seems to be that Muslim voters uniquely aren't allowed to have political preferences and aren't allowed to be responded to.

15:37But sort of leaving that to one side, actually, Starmer's position in some polling yesterday showed that a large plurality of voters actually agreed with his position, which was to neither condemn it nor support it. Which shows, I think, that the public actually have a more sophisticated and nuanced approach and understanding of the complexity of the situation than actually 80 % of Westminster commentators do, who were basically braying for Starmer to get involved in something, you know, to what effect, as you say, in terms of what effect we could bring and to what effect that the whole thing might arrive at anyway.

16:07No one really knows.

16:08Jon Sopel:Yeah. And in the invasion of Iraq in 2003, I heard it from various people that Blair felt he had to be part of it because he thought that the danger to the international order of going it alone was so great that it could break and really damage the United Nations. Donald Trump doesn't give a shit, frankly, about whether he's got the United Nations approval or disapproval or whether other people approve or disapprove. As you say, Lewis, Donald Trump is going to do his own thing and he'll do it on his own terms. And Keir Starmer in that context is obviously showing a bit more restraint on some of this stuff.

16:43Jon Sopel:I suppose the other thing that has struck me slightly and maybe I don't know, maybe it's just I'm an old fart and whatever. I am. I am. I am. I won't hear that said. I won't hear that said. I will be the last one. You'll be the first one. I hate it when people call you old. It's not nice. There seems to be almost a gleeful delight in some of the newspaper coverage about an American president beating up a British prime minister. Of course, it's a good story. If the US president is at odds with the British prime minister. I understand that. But it seems to be fantastic. Trump has said that Keir Starmer is a wanker.

17:21Jon Sopel:What more can we want? Hail to the chief. exactly and i just think there's something slightly odd about all of that when you think starmer's got his faults and we've covered them at length on this podcast and rightly so because we hold you know you hold people in power to account but it's just something that seems a bit odd about fantastic trump has put the boot into starmer well there's that and also the logical corollary of like a lot of what these people are saying is basically that star that the britain should be an international eunuch. Honestly, that Britain should never and can never operate an independent foreign policy outside of the United States, no matter how unhinged the policy or the person of the President of the United States.

18:07That is not true. That's ahistorical. But first of all, there have been plenty of British Prime Ministers over many decades. LBJ begged Harold Wilson to send a single token presence to Vietnam to make it more international. Harold Wilson refused. It's now considered to be one of his finest hour as prime minister. For all we know, we could be sat in the middle of Keir Starmer's finest hour. I mean, as always, he doesn't explain it very well in a rather strangulated way, but that's by the by. And while I just say this, everyone keeps saying Starmer, particularly these sort of commentators and journalists who go over there braying to get Trump to sort of not Britain or whatever.

18:40They're all saying that Starmer is imperiling the special relationship. I'm sorry, who is imperiling the special relationship? Let's just consider what Trump has done over the last 12 months. He's attacked our biggest ally, the Ukrainian president. He cozes up to Putin. He slaps us with tariffs. He's unreliable over Chagos. One minute he says he's for it, then he's against it, then he's for it again. He refuses to sign a tech deal, or they pull out of it when they do. He insulted, just what, a month or so ago? He insulted our troops, saying they hadn't really made much of a contribution to Afghanistan.

19:11He threatens to invade a NATO sovereign ally. He constantly changes the justification for this war. His administration constantly interferes in our politics. He insults Keir Starmer's allies, including Sadiq Khan. His vice president and other ideologues lie about our country the entire time, including saying we don't have freedom of speech and have no-go zones. What is special about this relationship exactly? These people honestly want us to be supine and pathetic in the wake of constant aggression. And they have the audacity to call themselves patriots and lecture the rest of us.

19:44Jon Sopel:Well, you go back to your very historical point about LBJ and Harold Wilson. Lyndon B. Johnson was so frigging furious with Wilson that at one point during a White House dinner, he ordered the band to play. I got plenty of nothing. In other words, I've got nothing from Harold Wilson. And just an act of pure sarcasm about the special relationship between the UK and Britain. I think that there are people who stood up to previous American presidents. and you said something earlier Lewis about he was sceptical about getting on board but equally Starmer will have calculated exactly what he was doing and will have not taken this step lightly he'll have thought through the consequences he will know there'll be a breach he'll know that he's going to get flack from Donald Trump probably as a result of it our new ambassador in Washington is probably going to have a much more difficult time than maybe he would have hoped now that he's got there but starmer has made that calculation and has clearly decided i am going to live with the consequences of it right when we come back we'll be talking a little bit more about that domestic politics and in particular a question of a green surge extraordinary poll new poll which has just come out which shows again how much our politics is changing and how quickly stay with us

21:06Jon Sopel:from a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists good morning i'm nick ferrari It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. The United States military began major combat operations in Iran. You must lay down your weapons or face certain death. The global question, why has Donald Trump bombed an enemy that he said had been completely vanquished last year? And the local question, should Keir Starmer have offered any support? The Conflict in the Middle East. Follow it live on LBC. Listen on our free global player app or the LBC app.

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22:19The News Agents. It's happening. Look where we are. And it's still sinking in. But thank you to everybody who's been part of this. Whatever you've done as part of this campaign has got us to the point where we've made history, but we're going to carry on making history and we are going achieve something absolutely unbelievable and we're going to do that together.

22:40Jon Sopel:That is Hannah Spencer, the newest MP for the Green Party after she won the Gorton and Denton by election last week at Westminster. And there is a new poll out which shows that the two-party system is alive and well. It's just that the two parties at the top of the poll are reform and now the Greens. this polling numbers are astonishing showing reform on 23 percent the greens on 21 percent and labor and the conservatives languishing at 16 percent yeah it is the first poll to show such a big gulf between the green party and and labor and adverts to i mean this is a poll i think which was done in the wake of the by-election so it shows some of their momentum that they're gaining and That's exactly why those sorts of by-election wins can be so important in shaping short-term politics.

23:34Because, of course, exactly as we discussed on Friday, what it does and what it did is show voters who might be pretty impressed with Labour, but are nonetheless even more unimpressed by the prospect of either a Conservative or a reformed government, it shows them that there is a potential alternative, that they are a credible alternative. They can win in very safe Labour seats like that. So being up for in a poll like that, I think, is striking and telling. And it's also, I mean, and it will crystallise the fear, the deep fear that many Labour MPs will have in seats in urban England who have not been accustomed to a challenger, any challenger really, but certainly a challenge to their left since the mid 2000s when the Lib Dems were running on a kind of student anti-Iraq war vote ticket, who will suddenly be very destabilised by it and very concerned about how Keir Starmer is going to respond to it.

24:25and want to know what the strategy is going to be. And I suspect that they will be, and I know for a fact that many of them have been unimpressed with the way that Number 10 responded to it in the wake of the election when Starmer basically suggested, in fact, he use language calling the Green Party extreme or pursuing extreme policies and so on. The problem with that, of course, is you've just got a ton of your own voters voting for a party that you yourself are calling extreme and therefore, by extension, your own voters or people who did vote for you are themselves extremists.