How Trump's failed war in Iran screwed Britain

0:28Who doesn't love warm, carby comfort? This is a Global Player original podcast. Play by Donald Trump's own imagined rules in that fantasy land inside his head. The truth is that he hasn't ended the war in Ukraine. That means that the Iran war could last the same as the Ukraine war, which is not going to end anytime soon. But you have an American defence secretary basically bragging about the idea that he's instructed his own soldiers to commit war crimes. Yeah, turns out the world's favourite frat boy is actually a bit of a fascist. This is going to be a cost that escalates massively for America.

1:05And if it escalates for America, it escalates for us too. President Freddie and Ron, how long are you prepared to maintain the blockade? Could that go several more months? I mean, militarily, we've wiped them out. They have no military left. It's all the navies at the bottom of the sea. The air force is never going to fly again. We've got an amazing military. Now they have to cry uncle. That's all they have to do. Just say, we give up. We give up. The problem is the Iranians are not giving up. They are fighting fire with fire. And the consequences for the world economy are getting ever more perilous.

1:47The true cost to this country was spelt out this morning by the Bank of England, who's warned us that inflation could hit 6 % at the start of next year and food prices could rise by 7 % at the end of this year. How on earth do we get out of this war that Trump has started? Welcome to The News Agents.

2:13The News Agents. It's John. It's Maitlis. It's Lewis. And we've heard from Donald Trump there saying, Iran, please, please, please just surrender, which they're not going to do. And as a consequence of which, the price of Brent crude touched one hundred and twenty six dollars a barrel. That's the highest it's been since the Russian invasion of Ukraine. The average price of fuel in America has topped four dollars thirty a gallon way, way higher than it was before the Iran war started. and yet look at the consequences in Britain. And what Andrew Bailey, the governor of the Bank of England, has spelt out is a really dark picture for the next year or so.

2:58He said that inflation, as Emily said in the intro, could hit 6.2%, food prices 6 % to 7 % by the end of the year, warning of a possible need for forceful rises in interest rates. One scenario has as many as six rises in interest rates taking it to about 5.25 % and that will be absolutely crucifying for homeowners who are on variable mortgage rates and will suddenly see the cost of their borrowing going through the roof. And for what? What is there to actually show for this? The last time that we were looking at interest rates going through the roof was not that long ago actually. It was 2022 when Rishi Sunak was in power at the end of the Covid pandemic, right?

3:45So we were just doing a quick check and inflation was at 9.6 % then, which is horrendous. But that was after a global pandemic that affected the entire world. And now we're looking at something that could be just two percentage points lower than that, which is entirely self-inflicted. What was that about? This is the first time we've talked about it around for a little while. Obviously, not least because there has been, we've been in this weird stage of the war, which is that we've had these ceasefires which have been renewed. Intermittent talks, which look like they're going to be renewed, but very often aren't renewed.

4:22And to great fanfare, usually Trump, but sometimes Iran, say actually, you know, they're pulling the negotiators away. They're not actually going to withdraw, particularly bizarrely the other day. Trump said that he was not going to send Vance and his negotiating team because it costs a lot of money to send people over there, which is pretty sort of grimly, darkly hilarious when you consider this war has already cost about 20 billion dollars to the federal government and counting. 28 billion. And they reckon that's a low ball number. Right. It's way higher than that. That doesn't include the reconstruction of all the US bases.

4:51So they think they've underestimated that. And doesn't include all of the indirect economic effects, which we've, you know, you've just both been been been talking about. and we're in this period where as a result it still feels in terms of the economic consequences which Andrew Bailey is talking about it feels like this really weird artificial period economically you know it does feel a little bit like you know those days in the pandemic when we were sort of looking and hearing weird things that were coming from Lombardy and going like what's on over there and you could sort of feel a kind of darkness coming and I think economically speaking that is where we are because it was so striking you know when the ceasefire first was announced oil prices tumble because everyone thinks right we're there we're there you know we're at the point where trump is willing to talk they probably ran is willing to talk they probably tumbled before the announcement was made because that's how trump rumbles yeah anyway yeah yeah that's true that's certainly true there's lots of people making a lot of money but we're finally there and i think what the markets are now waking up to is something that we've been talking about for a little while which is that as a result of the way that trump has gone into this war without an end game without any obvious sense of kind of what might be acceptable, both to him and to the Iranians as a kind of end point, they are at stalemate.

6:03They are at stalemate because there is no obvious way of unlocking the fact that Iran, the regime there, is not falling. And as soon as it became clear that it was not going to fall, Trump had a choice, which was to either basically accept a form of humiliation, which is that all of this, all of this war has basically, and all of this cost has basically yielded very little. Or he had to up the military, actually up the and intensify the military operation and perhaps even consider ground troops, something that he's clearly not willing to do. So we are at an impasse and every day that impasse endures, the global economy worsens and worsens and worsens.

6:42If Leo Tolstoy was alive today, he'd be writing no war and no peace because that is the space we are in now where, yeah, missiles aren't being fired, bombs aren't being dropped. But neither is anything happening towards reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Nothing is happening about Iran's nuclear material. And you can just see a world in which, you know, we've had Donald Trump calling together meetings with his kind of military commanders saying, what are my options? And talking about ground troops again and talking about all these other things to break the impasse. And you've then had a statement from the Supreme Commander of Iran saying, you know what, if you start firing at us, we're ready to start firing at you.

7:25We will make your lives hell. And so America will then, well, what will it do? Will it just say, OK, well, we better hold off. And so you've just got this total impasse where what you could see happening is that America agrees to some kind of short term deal, which would look like an absolute defeat, whereby the Strait of Hormuz gets reopened because we talked about how much oil prices have gone up and the shock that is coming to the world's economic system, which we are in the foothills of right now, in return for nothing to happen on the nuclear material that Iran has. And as you say, Emily, so what has been achieved at the end of that, if that's how it comes to pass?

8:09Well, yesterday, Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War, was called before Congress for the first time since the Iran war began. And there are a series of utterly extraordinary exchanges where he is accusing members of Congress who are asking him about the cost to America of the Iran war, i.e. doing their actual job. He's accusing them of gotcha questions. Just listen to him talking to Congressman Adam Smith. Do you know how much it will cost Americans in terms of their increased cost in gas and food over the next year because of the Iran war? I would simply ask you what the cost is of an Iranian nuclear bomb.

8:54I'm going to give you that opportunity. I would simply ask you what the... You're playing gotcha questions about domestic things. You're saying it's a gotcha question to ask what it's going to be in terms of the increased cost of gas and food. Why won't you answer what it costs to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear bomb? I give you that, sir. What would it cost? What would you pay to ensure Iran doesn't get a nuclear bomb? What would you pay? I reclaim my time. Do you not know? You had no one do the analysis of what the increased cost of gas and food on the American people are going to be? What is the cost of Iran holding that straight at issue with nuclear weapons?

9:26So the fact that he's treating a member of Congress as if it was a sort of dogship member of the press, which is frankly how Pete Hegseth talks to the rest of us most of the time, because they are asking about the cost to normal Americans of this war. And all that Hegseth can say is, well, how much would it cost if it was a nuclear bomb? And I think that is quite critical because what Hegseth has said is there will never be a nuclear bomb whilst America is watching Iran. In other words, he is setting open this idea that it is a forever war, right? Right. Because if America is going to constantly, constantly be on the back of this regime without changing regimes to make sure that they never do anything, then that is an investment in making sure that Iran never, ever has a nuclear bomb forever.

10:18Right. This is this is going to be a cost that escalates massively for America. And if it escalates for America, it escalates for us, too. So there are two things about Hegseth and that appearance. The first thing to say, and you made it clear that this was the first time that he'd answered questions from congressional leaders. Extraordinary. How unbelievable is it that a war that has been going on for weeks and weeks and weeks, and this is the first time that anyone from the executive is held to account by the lawmakers that pay the bills for the Pentagon, I'm taking such resentment and umbrage at the question.

10:56And I'm sorry, Ro Khanna's, I mean, look, Pete Hegseth is right to say what price Iran getting a nuclear weapon. Of course, that's a perfectly fair question. But the idea that he absolutely stonewalls the question of how much is it costing Americans today is so tone deaf when they're seeing the price of gas rise. And who knows what's going to happen to interest rates in America if the same thing is going to be happening in Britain. They're not stopping Iran from making a nuclear bomb. That's that's the whole point of this. They are not stopping anything from happening that wasn't happening before, except for oil getting through the Strait of Hormuz.

11:31Well, that's what I was going to say. I mean, again, we all come back to the sort of circularity of this war, which is that at precisely the moment it became clear that the Iranian regime wasn't going to fall, then everything goes back basically to the same question that American foreign policy has been asking itself for 10, 15, 20 years, 30 years, which is how do you stop Iran from getting a nuclear bomb? And there have been, long been, two schools of thought on that. The Hawks, the neocons have always been pushing and saying what we need to do is take them on militarily. We can defeat them militarily.

12:04The Doves, those who say are sceptical of that, basically say, look, it's not going to work down the barrel of a gun unless we were going to literally invade it with hundreds of thousands of troops and who knows what the consequences of that would be. So we've got to make a deal with them. And so basically we are, Pete Hex is there saying, what's the cost of getting a nuclear, of Iran getting a nuclear bomb? Nothing, as you say, Emily, about what they are currently doing actually take us any closer to that point. Because right now, all that's happening is it's rocking the world economy. And just saying, actually, just something else that was brought up there.

12:34Quite extraordinary again, John. You said it's the first time that he's been asked about this. True. It's also amazing. We've kind of got used to these kind of, you know, absurdly bellicose, kind of macho, small dick energy kind of things from Hegseth at these things. And he was asked if he stood by a statement that American troops would allow no quarter, no mercy for our enemies. And he said the military under his leadership fights to win. Seems quite kind of benign, that no quarter thing. Just remind people what it means. A no quarter order is one to kill all enemy combatants, even those who are badly injured or have surrendered.

13:10And as one of the Democrats on the committee pointed out, that is literally a war crime under the Americans own military uniform code of military justice and international war. So this is how far we've gone. Right. Like the whole thing is not necessarily even managing to yield the thing that everybody wants, which is no nuclear war. But you have an American defense secretary with his hair slicked back shouting with his suit that's far too small, basically bragging about the idea that he's instructed his own soldiers to commit war crimes. Yeah, turns out the world's favourite frat boy is actually a bit of a fascist, right?

13:43You don't have to scrape the surface too far to find that authoritarian streak in him. And Trump was also asked in a press conference last night, he'd been on the phone to Vladimir Putin. Now, this is where it all gets complicated. Trump said he had telephonic communication, right? Not telepathy, but telephonic communication with Putin. And Putin asked if there was anything he could do to help him with Iran. Now, that is a total mindfuck because the last time we looked, Iran was actually being helped by Putin to work out where American targets were coming in. So the fact that Trump and Putin are now talking about how to end the Iran war is just sort of a surreal step too far.

14:24But Trump was asked by Caitlin Collins of CNN whether he thought the Iran war or the Ukraine war would end first. And Trump quite likes that question because obviously, well, let's just listen. Let's have a listen to his answer. On your call with President Putin today, do you think the war in Iran ends first or the war in Ukraine? Well, we talked about more about the war in Ukraine, but he would like to be of help. I said, before you help me, I want to end your war. So we had a good talk. I've known him a long time. I think he was ready to make a deal a while ago. I think some people made it difficult for him to make a deal.

15:01But we talked more about Ukraine. But which war do you think ends first? um that's an interesting question you know coming from you that's very interesting which war would end first i don't know maybe they're on a similar timetable so when you first hear that you think oh trump's very flattered because he likes the idea that he's a peace man he's going to win the noble peace prize he's going to end more wars but actually the truth is that he hasn't ended the war in ukraine and that's now been going on more than four years and if they're on the same timetable, then again you'll start thinking, well that means that the Iran war could last the same as the Ukraine war, which is not going to end any time soon.

15:41I mean, actually it's even more depressing when you think that he could be in for the long haul on Iran too. There is a common thread in what he said there between the Iran war and the Ukraine war. You know, when he said the problem is that for Vladimir Putin, he wants to make a deal he wants to make, but there are some people who are just blocking it yeah those bastard ukrainians who keep on fighting and resisting and refusing to surrender and the same problem is there in iran those bastard iranians just won't surrender and roll over and accept they keep fighting back they keep fighting back and it's this kind of total lack of awareness on his part that you know what countries under threat tend to try and fight quite hard to defend themselves and don't play by donald trump's own imagined rules in that fantasy land inside his Except it's even more absurd than that, isn't it, John?

16:31Because, I mean, you know, as appalling as it is, the Russians and Ukrainians, it's still clear what they're fighting for. Ukraine's fighting for its national survival and Russia is still fighting to try and cripple Ukraine and take as much territory as it can. The war is ongoing. This war is weird because it's sort of ongoing and all the economic effects are certainly all ongoing, as we say, worsening. But the actual military side of things, Trump has basically, at least for now, given up. and he's tweeting out all of these threats, you know, no more Mr. Ice Guy and all of that. But you get the sense the Department of Defense, the Department of War, and the federal government, and Trump's administration is now slightly at a loss as to know what to do, whether to pick up the fight and resume the fight or just continue deferring and postponing because simply at this point now, the plan did not go as it was supposed to.

17:22Militarily, they're confused and bewildered as to what they could even do next because clearly, you know, despite everything they've thrown at Iran, it has not succeeded in achieving its objectives. And you just get the sense of complete confusion and bewilderment as to what the next move should be. Well, they keep saying we've won militarily. Well, you've won militarily, but you've just lost economically. And you've agreed a ceasefire. And you've agreed a ceasefire in return for what exactly? Nothing. It's a really interesting war in that sense. I mean, I would always take an economic cost, frankly, to, you know, more human deaths, right?

17:56So on the one hand, I'm sort of relieved that we're not, you know, we're not pushing further kind of, you know, aren't you going to get your boots on the ground? All that stuff has stopped, right? They're not going to get boots on the ground. I don't know what happened to those Marines. I'd be amazed if they did. It'd be extraordinary. So I would say this is the best kind of stalemate. But having said that, it doesn't need to be happening at all. I mean, nothing that they were going to achieve is going to be achieved now. So all we're talking about is damage limitation, which is vast. and this can't go on and on and yet that is exactly what it seems is going to happen.

18:31Back to Tolstoy. You better give him a ring. Yeah, I'm going to ring up. Leo, it's John here. He's a listener, I understand. No war and no peace. I reckon if you rang up a publisher they'd take it. From you. We'll be back in just a moment.

18:48From a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists. Good morning, I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. There is also a judgment I made that was wrong. I should not have appointed Peter Mandelson, and I apologize again to the victims of the paedophile Jeffrey Epstein, who were clearly failed by my decision. The pendulum has become turbocharged over the last few days, swinging hither and thither with gay abandon. So where is it now regarding the Prime Minister? Listen on our free Global Player app or the LBC app. LBC, leading Britain's conversation.

19:53where your story starts.

20:02Mr. President, this is your prize. This is your peace prize. There is also a beautiful medal for you that you can wear everywhere you want to go. I'm going to wear it right now. Okay, let me hold. Ah, fantastic. Excellent. It was a beautiful medal handed to Donald Trump last December by FIFA president Gianni Infantino. And Trump looked delighted. He hasn't won a Peace Prize, but he has got something from the football guy. He's won the FIFA Peace Prize. Sorry, you're right. The FIFA Peace Prize. He's won the first ever FIFA Peace Prize. And look, the World Cup is just over a month away. and invariably in advance of these huge international tournaments, there are the odd glitches and things that are going wrong.

20:59But what's happening in America right now? It talks to FIFA. It talks to America. And it's a pretty unhappy combination. I mean, just as kind of the one example that stands out about the way that fans are going to be ripped off is that this normally$12 train fare return from Penn Station in New York to the MetLife Stadium in New Jersey is now going to cost$150 or$160 during the World Cup. Instead of 12. Instead of 12. It's about 20 miles. And that applies to kids and seniors alike. They're all going to have to pay$160 just to get out to a stadium. And there are complex reasons for it. But the fans are going to be absolutely royally screwed by this World Cup.

21:50And then you've got the whole issue of certain nations, not whose fans won't be able to get there. You've got the issue of whether people want to go there. I mean, aren't allowed to get there. Banned from getting there. And who can possibly afford to go to a World Cup in the way that people have done, you know, at previous World Cups where it hasn't been that prohibitive. But the costs are astronomical. Nicole. Well, we're going to speak now to our old friend Adam Crofton, newly award winning Adam Crofton. Well done, Adam. And just tell us if it feels as weird from where you're sitting as it does to the stories we're getting here.

22:24Well, it's a World Cup, so it's always rocky in the preparation. We should, you know, we should say that, first of all, you know, previous ones, Qatar, Russia. But this has been a pretty extraordinary kind of runway to the World Cup. You know, it kind of started with most famously the Trump Peace Prize in December given by the FIFA president. And then, you know, since then, there's just been this series of issues, whether it's around the cost and the prices of the World Cup. Of course, Iran's involvement or potential non-involvement in the World Cup. The issues of Mexican cartels earlier in the year as well.

23:07It really has just felt like one thing after another, one news story after another. Like to the extent where, you know, if you're a reporter just trying to sort of get on with a long term feature ahead of this World Cup, it's just been impossible because every single day there is new stuff breaking on it. You mentioned the Trump Peace Prize last December, a moment of TV gold for many of us. Trump awarded with this gold statue by FIFA's Gianni Infantino for reasons I think none of us entirely understand. But whether that moment forged something between the two of them is a kind of live question now, because we're reading that Infantino himself has asked for Pope level protection, a motorcade during the World Cup in those Vancouver football matches.

24:05And Vancouver have said, oh, no way. What is all that about? Well, it's really interesting because when FIFA travel, I mean, so this is this is kind of blown up around FIFA's annual congress this year in Vancouver, which has been taking place this week. And when FIFA travel to these events, they really do like take cities over. I mean, I was in the one in Asantean in Paraguay last year, and it was like Asantean became a militarised city for the kind of 48, 72 hours that FIFA were in town. There was just police, state police, absolutely everywhere. And I think FIFA has sort of become quite used to this.

24:48Now, FIFA have denied this week that they made this request or that Infantino was involved in this request. but these kind of police escorts I mean it was kind of compared by the Vancouver police to like a pope level or head of state level police motorcade escort where you're allowed to go through red lights and all of that kind of thing and they basically said we don't think this is necessary based on our security assessment or a good use of taxpayer money but it is written in to a lot of the host city contracts during the World Cup that FIFA VIPs, FIFA president, will be given police escorts.

25:27I'm not sure it will be on the level of heads of state, but that is the treatment that FIFA have become very used to. It makes me think that this is all spiralling out of control about FIFA imagining itself to be this kind of supranational body that is above any nation state, that you can charge whatever you like for tickets, that you can make whatever amounts of money that are available. And it's just seemed, I think for the ordinary football fan, it just seems increasingly obscene. Yeah, and it's felt that way. I must say that the issue of pricing is interesting because the FIFA argument is that they are in North America, which is the most expensive sports economy in the world, where what they're using is this very controversial dynamic pricing, which is, you know, to be fair, what we often see in kind of machine ways through airlines and concerts and other forms of tickets, particularly in America.

26:34And US sports tickets are expensive. Now, there is expensive, and then there is what FIFA have been charging for these World Cup games where, you know, pretty run-of-the-mill group stage games have been, you know,$500 to$700 in some cases as the kind of starting price. And then it's becoming dynamic based on the level of interest. And, you know, look, I think I was sent some of kind of their current ticket sales for their games in Los Angeles earlier this month. And, you know, some of their games are selling pretty well. You know, games like the Iran games in Los Angeles, where there was a huge Iranian diaspora, you know, was already tracking at kind of over 50 ,000 tickets sold for a 70 ,000 ticket stadium.

27:23And that may not have included hospitality as well. So, you know, some of those games, despite the prices are doing really well. Others, interestingly, including the US men's national team opening game against Paraguay, where even like the lower price tickets are over$1 ,000, which is just mind boggling, we're only at around$40 ,000. So that shows that they may have to drop these prices at a certain point. I don't want to turn everything into politics, Adam. That's your job. Well, okay, that's a lie and I do. But it is interesting that the Iran game is selling out and obviously there is this huge, as you said, diaspora community there.