How will Burnham deal with Trump?

21:11Lewis Goodall:For me, that is the pivotal decision of his government in the first few months that will come. And that's why his choice of chancellor is so important. I would bet that the foreign leader, he's actually trying to have a little meet and greet with first up would be somebody like Mayor Mamdani, who seems to embody exactly the kind of politics that Burnham is now hoping to emulate, a kind of business-friendly socialism, a huge sort of wave of goodwill towards him in a city. He comes from the mayoral structure, obviously. And there is something, and we talked about it on the USA episode yesterday, there is something about the way Mamdani does politics, which is about joy.

21:55And if you saw overnight, the little kind of Instagrams that, you know, Eyelashes Andy has been putting out, they're kind of flirting with the electorate. He wants to have some fun. He looks like a man who wants to get into a job and then enjoy the job. And he even, I think he said hope. I mean, you know, this is this is the recipe for hope. There is something that he's learned from Starmer already, which is don't go in and tell the electorate that their lives are going to become even more shit, that they're going to have a terrible time, that it's all going to be depressing. What Mamdani does, whether it's with the Knicks, whether it's with, you know, basketball or whether it's with sort of bringing New Yorkers together.

22:33And actually, the stuff that Burnham was saying on the stump there, which was let's try and love our neighbours, let's try and kind of sit down, have a meal with our neighbours, is exactly the stuff that you have from Mamdani. there is this sense of kind of let's find the joy in politics again which frankly has been

22:49Lewis Goodall:completely missing well i mean in that sense with burnham in a way this is why one of the reasons he's here in the first place he can kind of thank trump for it in one sense which is that like labor is looking for its answer to algorithmic politics and algorithmic media which is basically the trump era and the mamdani era you know mamdani is a kind of democratic answer to So Democratic Party to Trump. And in a way, Burnham is Labour Party's answer to that Trump era. One of the reasons Starmer is not going to be there anymore is because he sat so ill at ease, so badly, so uneasily with politics in the long shadow of Trump and the way he does media and the way that, frankly, we've learned to do media from him.

23:30Lewis Goodall:So we're already seeing that with these selfies and all the selfie videos and all of that, that Burnham is just takes to that like a duck to water in a way that whatever is wider merits, Starmer never did.

23:40Jon Sopel:Well, let's talk about the wider merits of Keir Starmer or otherwise in just a moment.

23:54Jon Sopel:I've always believed the way you start your morning sets the tone for everything that follows. That first cup of coffee isn't just a routine, it's a ritual. That quiet moment before the day really begins. That's why I appreciate DeLonghi. For over 50 years, they've combined Italian craftsmanship, thoughtful design, and innovation for homes around the world. As the number one espresso machine brand in the world, they bring that same expertise to an espresso experience that feels effortless and makes mornings a little more delicious. The machine looks beautiful in my kitchen, but it's also incredibly simple to use.

24:27Jon Sopel:A quick espresso before heading out the door, or a cappuccino on a slower morning. It turns an everyday moment into something worth savoring. Dare I say, a damn fine cup of coffee. Right now, with Prime Day and DeLonghi's summer sale, save up to 40 % off select machines. After all, if it's not Italian, is it even espresso? To learn more, visit DeLonghi.com or search DeLonghi Espresso Machines on Amazon. Happy brewing!

25:01Jon Sopel:In the first two years of this government, we have really important progress on immigration. And, you know, one of the tests of an outgoing prime minister is whether you leave the country in a better state than you found it. And I am leaving it in a better state. Immigration has long been a cause for concern. On lawful migration, which when we came in two years ago was nearly a million net migration. we got that down to about a fifth of that number so huge reduction over 80 percent reduction on the crossings across the channel which so many people are concerned about understandably we've brought those numbers down as well so the steps we've taken are beginning to pay off well that is Keir Starmer rolling the pitch for himself on what his legacy will be did you leave the country a better place or a worse place and it's kind of been fascinating this week the extent to which it just feels like it's already ancient history that Keir Starmer announced that he was resigning as Prime Minister.

26:00Jon Sopel:The kind of waves came over and the sea looked calm and no one was talking about Keir Starmer. We've only been talking about Andy Burnham and I suppose it is worth reflecting on what he did do and what he didn't do. I was speaking to someone who worked with him in Downing Street this morning who said it is astonishing that he didn't shag an intern he didn't crash the economy he didn't not did not think we were going there well no I mean just in terms of a president yeah but he didn't you're right he didn't he didn't he didn't have parties during lockdown he didn't you know have a reckless referendum that took it out what has he done other than and what do we know about the person who's going to succeed him and this person was saying that there was a lot that Keir Starmer did that was very good he was a hard worker assiduous with these boxes and it you know and yet he's being replaced by he's being replaced by someone who's got great vibes as we were saying just a moment ago yeah I don't the hard working thing I mean I I mean I

26:59Lewis Goodall:would expect that right I mean a bare minimum prime minister should be reasonably assiduous with his paperwork I mean I well not all prime ministers have been no but most are I mean I I think you're probably thinking about Boris Johnson. Yes. Although, yeah, and even then, there will have been a certain amount he would have had to do. I think that it goes in a way, I think, with Isdama, and obviously, you know, it's entirely fair enough. He has got a list of achievements to his name. Of course he does. And I think he's right. The country, broadly speaking, is in a better position than it was two years ago.

27:30Lewis Goodall:He's certainly, as we discussed the other day, on the international stage in particular, I think he's restored a certain dignity to the impression of Britain abroad. I think, to be fair to him, And I think Sunak started that process. But, you know, Starmer has continued with it. I sort of think with Starmer that unfortunately it would be... He's a politician. It goes back to that conversation we were just having. I get this quite a lot online and people say, does this mean, when you say that he wasn't suited to the political age in which we're living, does this mean that the era of the kind of quiet man, a quiet, industrious leader is over?

28:07Lewis Goodall:And I sort of think, yes, at least for the time being, it is. That might be difficult to hear. But ultimately, we are in this age, to go back to that last chat, of algorithmic politics, where you have to try and get your message across. You have to be louder and have something to say. And that was never Starmer's style. I think, unfortunately, he is a politician. I almost think it would be like sort of bringing Macmillan or someone into the kind of sort of era of modern politics. He doesn't sit easily with it. And I think, unfortunately, from day one, he was doomed for that reason. I have been amazed, frankly, at the kind of communal shrug with which the political world has just accepted the Starmer resignation as if it's a totally normal way to start the week.

28:53And I think it's the normality that quietly kills me because it shouldn't be that easy, should it, to just sort of wave off someone that we have democratically elected as our prime minister. And yes, in a way, there's something extraordinary about the bloodlessness of the coup. The fact that the party on the surface is not divided, it's not tribal, it's kind of getting on with what's happened. But I don't think that that's necessarily where the country is. I think it's something more subtle than outrage, because a lot of the people who are quietly aghast at what has happened would also, frankly, admit, like you say, Lewis, that, you know, maybe he wasn't brilliantly suited to the job, that he struggled with his own party, his own MPs, his own policies.

29:41He changed his mind. We've been through that. We know, you know, that we've said before there wasn't a clear narrative, a clear story. and yet the swiftness of the heist and the idea was less of a butchering and more of a sort of stun gun to the head I think has just sort of left us all reeling a bit as a country that it shouldn't be that easy should it it shouldn't be that easy just to kind of go yeah okay well done yeah bye I mean he gave the speech at 9 30 by 9 40 he'd walk back inside and by 10 50 Andy Burnham was on his train and we had the choppers already following the train down. And I just, I feel like the sort of the speed at which that happened is slightly nauseating.

30:29Lewis Goodall:Well, you see, I would actually disagree. I actually think it should be that easy. Or at least I actually think, I don't think it was that easy because the truth is that, you know, this is attempts to get rid of him have been underway for a long time. And he, a prime minister, you know, he dug in. He dug in for as long as possible. And people talk about the heist or about Burnham. We've talked about it. But the truth is, it wasn't really a heist in the sense that it was an extraordinary act to sort of inveigle yourself into Parliament through that by-election, win it and so on. And that took guts.

30:56Lewis Goodall:But it wasn't Burnham that did it for Starmer. What did it for Starmer is the fact he had no support left among his own MPs or almost none. If he had any support, let's be honest, if he had any chance or any real support left in the parliamentary Labour Party and in the wider Labour Party, Starmer would be fighting this contest against Burnham. But he doesn't. You know, people I've seen online, they're blaming Burnham, they're attacking Burnham. It's not Burnham. It's the Labour Party that's abandoned Starmer. Burnham was never on his side to begin with.

31:22Jon Sopel:But Lewis, that contradicts slightly your point about algorithmic politics and you just can't be a quiet man or a moderate man. I think that Starmer's fundamental problem. Yeah, I mean, it was twofold. Was one his ability to communicate to the public and tell them the story of what he was doing. And I think, Emily, one of you said this morning that even his resignation speech was boring. You know, which you think, God, how do you manage to make a speech when you're leaving number 10? Dull. That's part of the problem. The other problem was he wasn't interested in political strategy. He wasn't interested in what it took to keep his backbenchers happy, how he was going to position the Labour Party in vis-a-vis the Tories, vis-a-vis reform.

31:58Jon Sopel:And that was the cardinal sin. There were the MPs who, you know, Albanese, you mentioned him earlier on. Now, Albanese is a politician in some ways temperamentally very similar to Starmer. He's not a great communicator in that way. He's not kind of he hasn't got charisma. He's not a folksy. But he's brilliant at party management. He understands the party of what it keeps the Australian Labour Party in tune. He meets the right people. He wants to talk political strategy. He understands polling. He knows where the public opinion is. He's got that antennae that Keir Starmer hasn't got. But Albanese's not Mr.

32:36Jon Sopel:Charisma. Yeah, like what would we say are Starmer's political skills? That he got Labour elected. That he did the necessary...

32:43Lewis Goodall:Yes, yeah, but wouldn't any Labour leader, reasonably confident Labour leader, have got elected?

32:46Jon Sopel:There are only two people alive in Britain today who've won Labour.

32:50Lewis Goodall:Yeah, but the Tory's got 21 % of the vote, John. They imploded. Honestly, I think even Jeremy Corbyn would have won the 2024 election.

32:56Jon Sopel:But he, look, I'm just saying, as a matter of fact, he's one of two people alive today who's given Labour a majority in Parliament. I actually think that we're not even disagreeing on the fact that he's struggled in the role of Prime Minister. It's something, I suppose, slightly more visceral for me, slightly more fundamental, which is, as you said, the hand goes into the water, there's a ripple. The hand goes out and it's just a flat, icy surface again. And it sort of makes me wonder about just the decorum of our sort of public lives. And I can't explain it better than that. It's a sense that in this era where everything happens so fast, where obviously, you know, we've talked about being terminally online and the social media and the clips and all the rest of it.

33:43We haven't even paused to do the obit properly. We haven't. And I think, you know, frankly, the things that he set himself out, cutting immigration. I mean, that is a massive, massive drop. You could say that's Shabana Mahmood, but OK, he had the skill. Or Rishi Sunak. Exactly. But, you know, you could say he had the skill to work out that Yvette Cooper wasn't going to do the thing that Shabana Mahmood did and he put her into the right role.

34:07Lewis Goodall:Although Vets people would say that they're the ones who started it. That maybe they started it. OK, I mean, fair enough. But if you want to look at wins, they have borrowed to invest. They put another 144 billion into infrastructure investment. They have brought down immigration. they have managed somehow to swerve up to this point inflation that we're expecting as a result of the iran war i think you can point to the winds but i'm still not even saying that that's that's what i'm feeling uncomfortable about what i'm feeling uncomfortable about is just the speed at which we have kind of like packed up and moved on it's like we're a pop-up

34:43Jon Sopel:shop of prime ministers and it's just gone now you know there's something about our politics i I mean, we talked yesterday about the language on British politics and, you know, kind of whether Clemmie Baden-Ock had gone too far in what she'd said about Bridget Phillips and the education secretary. Look, the language of our politics isn't as rough as it is in America. But the casual brutality of our politics is way, way worse than America.

35:08Lewis Goodall:I don't think we've been brutal enough. I think someone should be gone now.

35:11Jon Sopel:You have a general election in Britain and the prime minister is being shown out the door. The serving prime minister is being shown out the door. First thing the next morning, get out. The new prime minister is going to be arriving by 11 o 'clock. Your piano is in the street. Get the removal men in. You're out. And the civil service are there applauding nicely as the new prime minister walks in. That is the brutality of British politics. But also not just the brutality, as in on a personal level, it's very sad. But it's if you talk to the civil servants and it's interesting, actually, that one of the things I think some did really wrong.

35:45And we talked about it yesterday was the removal of Ollie Robbins, the sort of the blame game, which was not very. Yeah, it was ugly. And we're hearing now on the grapevine that Ollie Robbins might be straight back into a Burnham sort of premiership as as a national security adviser. But if you talk to civil servants now, they will tell you how impossible it is to get anything done, anything achieved. The electorate tells you that they want stability. They want long term. They want something that will, you know, get them a railway from from north to south. They don't vote for it. Exactly.

36:16Jon Sopel:But that was OK. If we're talking about, you know, some of success foreign policy would, you know, let him bank that. The failure was that he never gripped the Downing Street machine and that there was a continual changeover of staff, you know, key advisers. I know he did a lot of the firing himself. And that James Purnell coming in as the new chief of staff to Andy Burnham has got to really run that machine so that, you know, government, the civil service is working at the service of of Andy Burnham and what he wants and make sure making sure his writ runs. And that will be the job of Purnell.

36:53Just imagine we're into a place where Burnham thinks it's all going fine. Right. And it is going fine, but he's not delivering as fast he wants. And he's in this place where come next March, April, he goes, right, sod it. You're all kind of hankering about me. You know, this being undemocratic, let's have a general election. And he does lose then to reform. I think, you know, when you look at the polls at the moment, they're on a knife edge and this is before he's come in. So imagine that in office, your ratings probably slightly fall. Who knows? I mean, you know, we're all in the land of sort of hypotheticals here.

37:24Imagine if that actually happened. If Burnham came in, he had six months in the job. He hadn't moved fast enough for a hungry electorate. And then suddenly you land Nigel Farage in the job come April. I mean, what? What would we be thinking?

37:38Lewis Goodall:It's totally possible. I mean, I would just say that I'm sure point, Emily, which I think is really interesting. Your feelings about it. Like I sort of slightly feel the opposite. I always feel British politics, I always feel like it's not brutal enough right now. I was just saying, like, I sort of, this weird liminal period we're in now between Starmer and Burnham, honestly, like, let's just end it. Like, let's get Burnham in there. But I think you're more revolutionary than I. I mean, that's not a shock. Like, you feel the same about the monarchy, quite frankly. No, but I don't think this is...

38:02You chop off a lot of heads. No, no, no.

38:04Lewis Goodall:No, I just mean, like, a bit, no, because I really don't think this is about revolution. I actually think the revolution is doing what we're doing now. Typically, historically, when we were having a new prime minister, it was done and dusted quickly. I mean, you know, Wilson to Callaghan was a week or so. Same with Thatcher to Major. Yeah, but that's when you win an election. No, no, no. This is with the prime minister handing one to the other within the same party. Like, you know, this is three weeks now, precisely to your point, what you've just said, which is that, like, the civil service is now just sort of frozen.

38:31Lewis Goodall:Burnham wants some time to prepare. OK. But, like, there's this weird kind of period between things. And I would just say, you know, in terms of the brutality of British policy, lots of people saying, why are we getting rid of prime ministers? You know, it's so unstable. I would always just say the system is not working. My point, actually, I think the system is working very well. I think what our system is showing is its flexibility and adaptability. Our system is really good at getting rid of duff prime ministers, because when people say it's unstable, I always just say to them, OK, which of the prime ministers have we had recently that you wouldn't have got rid of?

39:02Lewis Goodall:Because we clearly would have got rid of Cameron because he couldn't stay on because he didn't have the authority after Brexit. May had no political authority left because she can get a deal through. She had to go. Johnson had to go because of his, frankly, his personal morality. I think the Mae Johnson thing is an absolute classic. Soon they had to go because he lost the election. Starr was probably the most borderline, but Labour MPs have concluded that he can't do the job. So which of them would you get rid of? I think our problem is not about changing prime ministers. Our systemic problem, I think we've got at the moment, is the quality of political leadership coming through.

39:29Lewis Goodall:And the question with Burnham is, is he going to be yet another one of these relatively poor political leaders that we had, or is he going to be something better?

39:36Jon Sopel:Well, let's just pause out there because last night the Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, was on a platform and she was being asked about advice she'd give to anyone becoming Chancellor. Just on that, obviously he's going to choose a Chancellor. It might be you, it might not be you. What would your advice be to anyone in the future taking on the role as Chancellor?

40:06Jon Sopel:I'm not sure if anyone wants my advice. Sorry, can we have that again, please, Rachel?

40:20Jon Sopel:We'll be back after the break.

40:29Jon Sopel:you know my favorite part of the morning is that first cup of coffee a small quiet ritual that sets the rhythm for the day that's why i appreciate delonghi for over 50 years they've combined italian craftsmanship and thoughtful design and as the number one espresso machine brand in the world they make it effortless just a damn fine cup of coffee in your own kitchen right now with prime day and a longy summer sale save up to 40 percent off select machines after all if it's not italian is it even espresso

41:07Jon Sopel:and just to look ahead to tomorrow's news agents which will be a question and answer on the week that saw Starmer fall and Burnham rise. Let's give you a taste of one of the questions. This is from Sophie Louise. Hi, news agents. Do you think Labour MPs and Burnham himself have played the replace the leader card too early? We all know realistically Labour can only afford politically to do it once so as not to be branded the same as the Tories and to avoid calls for an early general election. Surely they should have copied Canada, kicking Trudeau out mere months from the election and bringing in a winner in Carney, completely rewriting the polls and rattling their opponents who only really knew how to fight Trudeau.

41:50Lewis Goodall:Well, I suppose that suggests that there's an election in 2029 rather than next year. Do you think there would be? I think if you get to bounce in the polls, I think there's every chance, yeah. It needs to be a mighty bounce though, doesn't it? It would need to be, well, Labour's at like 1920 at the moment, reformer now on like 24, 25, so it wouldn't need to be a huge bounce. I think decent, well, put it this way, if he gets a good bounce and it sustains into the autumn I think the clamour for one is going to be really substantial because let's not forget really we keep talking about how he'll be different in policy terms and I think he will be a bit different he'll probably move the party to the left a little bit but fundamentally the SA question for a Burnham government is a political one not a policy one it's how do we beat reform and the Labour Party thinks he's the guy to beat reform he showed that in Makerfield so if he glimpses an opportunity to defeat reform once and for all that it's there for the polls and for the taking I think he will inevitably be tempted.

42:41Lewis Goodall:Yeah. Don't forget in Canada, it was the Trump effect. I mean, Trump essentially removed Trudeau. It was disgusting. But that was why Trudeau stepped down because he realised he couldn't actually fight the guy. And Carney came in and basically won against Poliev on the basis that he was going to stand up to Trump. So, I mean, maybe there's a lesson in there somewhere for Burnham to go back to our original chat. We will widen this discussion out on the News Agent's question and answer session tomorrow. And I might sing, as the resident revolutionary on the show, I might sing the Internationale.

43:12Before chopping some heads off.

43:14Lewis Goodall:Yeah, yeah, yeah. Off you go, get your knitting needles out. Sharpen my axe.

43:18Jon Sopel:Arise ye starlings from ye slumber.

43:20Lewis Goodall:Yeah.

43:21Jon Sopel:Yep. Okay, I prefer the shooting against the wall. See you tomorrow.

43:24Lewis Goodall:Bye-bye. Bye for now.

43:25Jon Sopel:You know, my favourite part of the morning is that first cup of coffee. A small, quiet ritual that sets the rhythm for the day. That's why I appreciate DeLonghi. For over 50 years, they've combined Italian craftsmanship and thoughtful design. And as the number one espresso machine brand in the world, they make it effortless. Just a damn fine cup of coffee in your own kitchen. Right now, with Prime Day and DeLonghi's summer sale, save up to 40 % off select machines. After all, if it's not Italian, is it even espresso? This has been a global production.