Is Iran winning the war?

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0:32This is a Global Player original podcast. The world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, even segments of our own press should be saying one thing to President Trump. Thank you. Thank you for the courage to stop this terror state from holding the world hostage with missiles while building or attempting to build a nuclear bomb. thank you for doing the work of the free world well on behalf of all those ungrateful allies i'd like to offer pete hexath a thank you thank you for getting us into the biggest bloodiest most dangerous almighty mess that you no longer control and also thank you for the fact that qatari gas fields are being blown up that the price of oil and gas have gone through the roof the Strait of Hormuz is still shut.

1:29If America is winning, what does loss look like? Welcome to The News Agents.

1:39The News Agents. It's John. It's Emily. It's Lewis. And it has been yet another dizzying 24 hours in the Iran war. Quick update as to, as of about one o 'clock in the afternoon London time, where we are. Overnight, Israel struck Iran's South Paz gas field, killed Iran's intelligence minister alongside some of the heaviest airstrikes on Beirut in decades. Meanwhile, Iran retaliated by hitting the energy infrastructure across the Gulf, including, crucially, Qatar's Raslefan liquefied natural gas facility. This is one of the most important pieces of energy infrastructure anywhere in the world, producing around 20 % of global natural gas supply.

2:28Trump threatened in retaliation to massively blow up the entirety of the Iranian South Park's gas field if Iran attacks Qatar's energy infrastructure again, while simultaneously claiming the US knew nothing about Israel's strike. Economic impact of all of this is absolutely massive and could last years. Just overnight, we've seen gas prices surging by 35%, oil prices up 10%, now about$120 a barrel. Stock markets around the world in total volatility. And experts, energy experts in particular, warning that this stuff cannot be corrected overnight because once it's destroyed, it will take years to rebuild.

3:13So we could be baking in energy price inflation, which could rock the world economy, not just for weeks or months, but years to come. Yeah. And exactly as you say, the effects are going to be profound, whether it be on interest rates, whether it be on people's mortgages. Obviously, whether you're able to fill up your car at the petrol station, that is if there is any petrol. And so the list of things goes on and on. But of that list, I thought the most interesting thing was Donald Trump's post on Truth Social. Because alongside that threat to blow up Iran's, you know, kind of oil feels like nothing has ever been seen before.

3:50He said we knew nothing about the Israeli attack. That's completely news to us. And we've told them, and he says this in block capital letters, that they must stop and they will not attack again. And you think, really, really, is it possible that Israel launched an attack like that on Iran when there is this interoperability between the Israeli Air Force and the US Air Force over Iran, that an attack could have taken place without central command knowing about it? it's just inconceivable and there's a lot of reporting now from the wall street journal from some of the best kind of middle east watchers saying absolutely donald trump knew what israel was going to do absolutely it had been signed off by the americans but because there's been such a backlash from the gulf states who suddenly think geez what are we getting out of this friendship with donald trump and this alliance with america that they're blowing up our facilities that donald Trump is now saying, oh, nothing to do with me.

4:50I didn't even know about it. I just don't believe a word of it. Yeah. And I think it is worth possibly listening to a bit more of America's Defence Secretary, Secretary for War, Pete Hegseth, who gave that press conference just before we came on air this morning, because there is a contradiction between the rhetoric that he's using and the reality that much of the world can see that you can frankly drive a truck through. Look at his explanation, kind of an attempt at dark humor, I'm guessing, at why they think they're winning. Ballistic missile attacks against our forces, down 90 percent since the start of the conflict.

5:31Same with one way attack UAVs, think kamikaze drones, down 90 percent. Now, the Iranians will still shoot. We know that. But they would shoot a lot more if they could. But they can't. the last job anyone in the world wants right now senior leader for the irgc or besiege temp jobs all of them and to borrow a page from admiral ernest king in world war ii we've decided to share the ocean with iran we've given them the bottom half frat boy humor yeah Chuck another beer. Chuck another beer, which might work better if he wasn't explaining, essentially, how badly things have gone wrong. The Iranians have shared the ocean.

6:18They do control the straits. That's the whole point. You might have sunk their ships, but their mining are tankers. They have complete control. And so the idea that you try and spin this off, you know, with your epic fury soundbite and your kind of chiseled jaw good looks of isn't it amazing what we've done? We did it so fast. That might work in an era where it was the only tunnel of communication. But now we see we see what's happening. Right. You can see the reality on the ground. and I think you know John the the question you started the show with which is you know essentially who's winning on this and I think the very fact that we're asking that question but so many people are asking that question we know you know audiences are asking that question that tells you a lot right because uh in Trump's mind I'm sure when he started this war there would have been no question three weeks in as to whether we would even be asking that question we wouldn't be because it would be so obvious that America will be completely dominant.

7:21But the truth is, is that this is a nuanced situation, right? And there are sort of almost multiple wars going on at once. Like militarily, there's no question that in the pure kind of brute facts of it, America's winning, right? They've got pretty much control of the air. Hegs is right that they've degraded Iranian military capacity substantially, but they've degraded militarily, their military capacity substantially if like you're thinking Iran's goal is to fight a war. a sort of conventional war against another state. That's not the game they're playing right now. The game the Iranians are playing right now is basically two-fold.

7:56One is to survive, which right now, internally, politically, they show every sign of so doing. In fact, it looks so far like this war is actually insulating them in place. And the other is to show the world that when push comes to shove, they are at least as powerful as the Americans. Why? Because they have a chokehold over the world economy. via the Straits of Hormuz, but also, frankly, their willingness to destroy the world's energy infrastructure across the Gulf, on which we in Europe in particular, but Asia and much of the rest of the world denies. So right now, we can't say that America's winning.

8:31You can make a very compelling case that at the very least, Iran is holding their own, which is basically a net victory for them. And so then you have to say, what would American victory look like? To be convincing to the world. Presumably, it would mean that the Strait of Hormuz is open, oil is moving freely, and there are no further attacks on Gulf installations of Qatar, of the UAE, of Saudi Arabia, which is not the position right now. And it's kind of interesting that I heard something today from Scott Besant, the US Treasury Secretary. And this is about Iran's kind of main port for getting rid of, you know, for exporting oil, which is Harg Island.

9:14in the Gulf. And listen to what he has to say. As I said, there was a bombing campaign last week. The military assets on Cargill and were destroyed. And the other thing I can tell you, if you're an oil worker, you don't want to work there. So all the oil workers that are being coerced to stay there. And, you know, we will see what happens with whether that eventually becomes a U.S. asset. A U.S. asset. So what the stars and stripes are going to be flying over Cargill. and that's what he seems to be saying. Just think about that for a second, about what that would mean. It would mean getting presumably marines onto Khark Island.

9:52Well, that's not going to happen without resistance from the Iranians. It means presumably boats, naval vessels going up the Strait of Hormuz to get to Khark Island. Well, how are you going to do that when you can't get any shipping through and US military hasn't dared to go anywhere near it? And so things are being said and you think, OK, yeah, so america's going to take over hark island it's just not i can't see america putting the thousands of troops on the ground that would be necessary for that to happen and if you look at the latest opinion polling in america i think it's something like 68 percent of americans oppose ground troops going anywhere near any of this yeah that tells you where the public opinion is and i think what we're beginning to understand to lose this point about that this is not a conventional war that Iran is fighting.

10:42It is being fought with guerrilla tactics, right? Much more low key, but much more effective. And that is not an accidental strategy. The reason why Iran is proving so powerful right now lies in what's known as the Mosaic Defence Strategy, right? And it is a strategy that they have built up over two decades. And it focuses essentially on distributing power across local commanders, ensuring that local forces can continue operating. So when you think of the American military, you think totemically of the Pentagon. CENTCOM. CENTCOM. Literally, it does what it says on the tip. Central Command. It's the Central Command.

11:19Mosaic defence is not just a concept. It is an official military doctrine that the IRGC adopted when they saw what was happening in the Iraq war. This goes back to the mid-2000s when they saw shock and awe and they went, hang on a sec, we know we cannot win a conventional war. We're going to subdivide. We're going to break the system down into smaller cells. So every cell operates with its own nucleus independently. When one cell is taken out, the others are fine. There is a contingency. There is a strategy. And it's proving very effective right now because there isn't one unique post in the centre of Tehran that signals the war is over.

11:58It is one for America. It's all been distributed in a much cleverer way right now because they saw this coming. Well, which is why the Americans and the Israelis can talk about decapitation strategies as much as they like. And the exit can talk about how no one wants to be the head of the RGC. I'm sure that that's true. But ultimately, you know, it is a many headed hydra and it's a whole system. And you can remove as many individuals as you like. This is, I think, the sort of fundamental sort of misunderstanding, which is they thought it was going to be like Venezuela. And you can remove the top, you can remove the top and then coerce someone more junior to do what you want.

12:33that has proven to completely be the opposite of the case, not least because, of course, Iran, and they have them for 50 years, have seen themselves as part of a civilisational struggle against the West and against America, so it's not that surprising. What scares me about this whole thing, really, at the point that we're in now, is that you can just see that both sides have every incentive not to de-escalate, but to escalate and intensify the war further, right? Because at the present moment, if you think about the sort of incentives for both, But for the Iranians, they need to know, and all the reporting I'm seeing from Tehran is saying this, that the Iranians now consider, not least because Trump himself made it about this, that this is a fight for survival, that they either survive or they don't, and that therefore they need to send a message to the rest of the world that not only that they've won, but you must never come back again.

13:23They must show that there is a deterrent to the West and the United States and to Israel never to return. because right now they think if they were to just down tools and say, OK, we'll come to some sort of deal with the Americans, that the Israelis in particular will be back in five months or six months or 12 months. They want this to be the last war that the West in Israel ever wages against them. So they have every incentive to keep the war going. And the Americans, for their part as well, right now, if Trump were to just say, OK, that's enough. Well, first of all, they can't be sure that the Iranians would stop and they can't be sure they'll be able to reopen the straits.

13:57So they will be humiliated. And therefore, it seems to me that I'm not surprised we're hearing them talk about Haag Island because it seems to me that they now have every incentive or Trump has every incentive to try and do riskier and riskier things to eke out what the whole world would consider to be a win, which is something that Trump, more than any other American president, will care about. But wasn't Besson also, apart from the Khag Island, wasn't he also talking about lifting sanctions on Iranian oil at sea? I mean, Jesus, I don't understand that. Are you threatening? Is this sticking carrot?

14:30I mean, I don't understand that. Well, it's very unclear what they're trying to do right now. but Lewis I completely agree that the remorseless logic of where we are now is that it becomes a full-scale invasion by US forces if they want to prevent that from happening that scenario that you described where Iran kind of wins as it were because they controlled the Strait of Hormuz and they've shown the world and they've shown the world that they can and that they've got the missiles to blow up the oil and gas terminals in Qatar, in Saudi, you know, UAE, wherever. Therefore, if you really want to stop that and you want to take control of the Strait of Hormuz, you're going to need to put ground forces there in substantial numbers.

15:17Exactly what Donald Trump promised wouldn't happen. He thought that he could win this war from the skies without the need for troops on the ground. And as soon as you put troops on the ground, then the Iranians are aiming at you And there'll be a lot of people, a lot of Americans going home in body bags as a result of that. America might well win. And they've got that. The logic is that that's what they should do. But that is where you've got to. You started something. And now the logic is it's either a total victory for Iran or a total victory for America. And it's hard to see where the off ramp is, where both sides think, OK, no, fair dues.

15:52We've both got what we wanted out of this. I can't. I can't see that. I can't see boots on the ground and maybe that's just because it's sort of fighting against, you know, every kind of corpuscle in your soul that you don't want to see that. Not least because Trump grew up in the... I profoundly hope that I am totally wrong. But what I would say that, but to that point, there is also a world in which America wants to call off its dogs. But Israel thinks it's on to something. and we start to see the gap between what Israel thinks it can do and what Trump is willing to do. And Israel, I mean, has got the advantage in a way of saying we're right in the middle of this, right?

16:35We can see it's on our doorstep. We've been dealing with Hezbollah, we've been dealing with Hamas, we've been dealing with Iran's proxies for years. But really the stuff that we're doing in Lebanon is making a lot of people ask questions about legality, about criminality, because they can go around saying, well, we're targeting Hezbollah. Is Hezbollah in a block of flats? Is Hezbollah on a bridge? Is Hezbollah in a car park? Is Hezbollah on a road? Well, if you're Israel, you say, well, maybe. But meanwhile, you're targeting civilian infrastructure. That constitutes, I think many people would say, a war crime, right?

17:09If you are destroying ports and airports and roads and domestic residences because Hezbollah might have used it or they might be there. I mean, you're on a hiding to nothing at that point, right? And Trump doesn't look like he actually has any say over what Israel's doing there anymore. And the Israelis will know that this is their big chance. Because Trump ain't coming back. You know, when this is over, or presumably actually any future American president, like, I mean, you know, who knows what as a result of this is going to happen between the Israeli-US relationship as a result of all of this.

17:43You're seeing it in the Republican Party. It's been building for a while, but it's been put on steroids. You know, more and more senior Republicans in a way that, you know, would once have been pretty unthinkable for, you know, starting to say what's in it for us, this this relationship. Israel keeps dragging us into these sorts of security conflicts. So, you know, Netanyahu himself, of course, facing elections this year, but we'll know that this is probably his big, big chance. So his risk calculus, I think, will be, you know, very, very much askew. He'll know that this is his opportunity. I think the position of Israel vis-a-vis public opinion in the United States is something that is a profound change over the past decade.

18:20And arguably, you'd have thought October the 7th would be the moment when Israel would have maximum sympathy and that there would be a unity around the terrorist threat that they face. But because of the way the war has been prosecuted in Gaza, and as you say, Emily, kind of what's happening now in parts of central Beirut, not just the areas that were Hezbollah strongholds. You now have this fracturing whereby it's not just you've got the liberal left of American politics, the progressive, you know, Zoram Amdani's who are deeply hostile towards Netanyahu and Israel and don't want to have anything to do with AIPAC, which is the great, powerful Israel lobbying kind of machine in America.

19:08and on the right you've got you know what's his name tucker carlson and nick fuentes yeah exactly the far right who've got a strong anti-semitic streak it's one hell of a horseshoe isn't it and they are yeah and they really are kind of saying why are we why are we doing this and why is israel leading us by the nose into a conflict that we don't want to be part of and so you've got this fracturing of support that i think is really quite profound and if i was involved in Israeli politics, I'd be deeply concerned by. It's funny. I mean, you know, a lot of people have been talking this week. It's been coming up in American politics about whether this could be Trump's Vietnam.

19:47The more and more, particularly over the last few days that I've thought about it, in a way, I think Vietnam is the wrong analogy. You know, there's a stronger and stronger case, particularly just thinking about it on the basis of what we've just been discussing in terms of there's no incentive to stop. It looks quite a lot like Ukraine. You know, it looks like Trump's Ukraine as much as Trump's Vietnam in the sense that kind of, You know, you see a very similar dynamic that's played out for four years in Ukraine, which is the Russians can't be seen to stop because what's victory? It cannot be seen to have lost.

20:15And the Ukrainians, for their part, have no incentive to come to the table because they know that they can't trust the other side, which is exactly what the Iranians feel about Israel and the US. And it has other hallmarks of the Ukraine as well, doesn't it? I mean, there's the economic impact, particularly on energy markets, which has actually been enormous. And the other one is that, you know, you went into that conflict and everyone thought that there was one side with massive military superiority and it would be done. And yet here we are four years later. I'm not saying this war will be going on in four years time.

20:44But, you know, there are very, you know, the echoes are there in the sense that just like Putin, Trump thought that there would be a simple set of strategic aims and his overwhelming military superiority would be able to affect them quickly. And he underestimated the other side. I say that with no relish, by the way, no truck for Iran. But it is clearly the case. Just one data point on that is that Pete Hegseth has said to Congress, we need 200 billion dollars to fund the war in Iran, which has been going on two and a half weeks as we speak. That is more than the total America has spent so far in supporting Ukraine.

21:26Now, obviously, there's a kind of, wow, hang on. Does that have they already spent that much on the war in Iran? No. But what it shows is the Pentagon calculus is that this war is going to go on for some time to come. This is not three weeks and done. This is not quickly over. You know, we'll all be home by Christmas. This is going on and on and on. Yeah. And if you go back to the original objective of Trump, which was to denuclearify Iran, right, to take its teeth. I mean, what are we left with now? There are places in Isfahan that they could choose to target, they could choose to hit. If you get this stuff wrong, you basically allow radioactive material into the atmosphere, right?

22:08You puncture it with water. If it hits water, you make a whole new problem for yourself in terms of the kind of toxicity of the environment and the air and all the rest of it, which can't be undone. last as we know, decades, generations. And yes, in Congress, they were asking the assessment of the intelligence community as to whether there was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime. And there was a really interesting exchange between John Ossoff, who's the senator for Georgia, and Tulsi Gabbard, who is famously head of the NSA, a woman who hated Trump's forever wars until suddenly she found herself promoted and didn't mind them so much.

22:49It's very important to be flexible. It is very important to understand both sides. And this is what he asked her. And this is her response. It really takes you inside how they're all now deflecting back onto the guy at the top. Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was an imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime? The intelligence community assessed that Iran maintained the intention to rebuild and to continue to grow their nuclear enrichment capability. Was it the assessment of the intelligence community that there was a, quote, imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime, yes or no?

23:23Senator, the only person who can determine what is and is not an imminent threat is the president. False. This is the worldwide threats hearing where you present to Congress national intelligence, timely, objective, and independent of political considerations. You've stated today that the intelligence community's assessment is that Iran's nuclear enrichment program was obliterated and that, quote, there had been no efforts since then to try to rebuild their enrichment capability. Was it the intelligence community's assessment that nevertheless, despite this obliteration, there was a, quote, imminent nuclear threat posed by the Iranian regime?

24:01Yes or no? It is not the intelligence community's responsibility to determine what is and is not an imminent threat. OK, here's the problem. I mean, incredible, right? You're the head of the NSA, and yet you've determined that there is only one person who could possibly know that. The omnipotence, the messianic vision of Donald Trump is what you have to fall back on when you're his own security advisor. Which is getting paid for. It's highly clear, isn't it? You just wanted the speech bubble out of her mouth. In answer to the question, did they pose an immediate threat? And you wanted her to say no.

24:37No fucking idea. No. Well, no. Just no full stop. We didn't think they posed an immediate threat. Only Donald Trump has... Only Donald Trump. I mean, only Donald... Can you imagine? Can you imagine being part of America? Like, they had the most extraordinary intelligence community in the world right before this. And now she's at the top of it and she's like, well, there's only one guy who'll know that. Yeah. Really? Well, they know. Look, the DNI are full of very clever people and they will know that there was no imminent threat to the United States or US interests in the area until America attacked.

25:14And that's the only time that the threat level went up. And we can see it playing out now. I mean, it just shows that, you know, this was a war of choice. Now, I saw Tony Blair the other night being interviewed and say, every war is a war of choice. No, this was a war of choice. There was no imminent threat. And yet you chose to launch this attack without any reference to the United Nations, without any reference to Congress, without any reference to anyone. I have to say, when you say Tony Blair, it's like, every war is a war of choice. I get this sort of vision of a Thornton's chocolate box.

25:44That might be nice. Tell us the polls in 1939. Oh, my God, I want to know. Yeah, exactly. Right, when we come back, we'll be talking about how this will affect British politics and Europe as well. Stay with us.