Is Starmer ready to take on Trump?

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1:03This is a Global Player original podcast. And I'm not, by the way, I'm not happy with the UK either. That island that you read about, the lease, okay, he made it, for whatever reason, he made a lease of the island. Somebody came and took it away from him. And it's taken three, four days for us to work out where we can land there. It would have been much more convenient landing there as opposed to flying many extra hours. so we are very surprised. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with. That is Donald Trump speaking in the Oval Office about Keir Starmer, apparently furious at Starmer's delay in granting the US access to UK bases as part of their military operations against Iran.

1:50And Donald Trump, with that unerring ability to create a headline, sure as hell has, all the papers are, he's no Winston Churchill. But is Keir Starmer actually in the right place on this? Welcome to The News Agents.

2:12It's John. It's Lewis. And if you were in Downing Street yesterday afternoon, you probably could sense the ouch and the feel of winded pain after Donald Trump said, you're no Winston Churchill. What an insult, what a brilliantly contrived way of securing a headline. It was Trump at his best in some ways because that's what he does. I mean, it might have been tempted to reply, and you're no Dwight D. Eisenhower either, Mr President, but Keir Starmer wouldn't do that. Instead, in the House of Commons today, he rather cleverly talked about what the special relationship is. And it's not just about Donald Trump's words in the Oval Office.

2:54planes are operating out of british bases that is the special relationship in action british jets are shooting down drones and missiles to protect american lives in the middle east on our joint bases that is the special relationship in action sharing intelligence every day to keep our people safe that is the special relationship in action hanging on to president trump's latest words is not the special relationship. And that was in response to a Conservative MP. I think telling that Cammie Badenock, who had a pretty bad Prime Minister's questions when she was very unfocused, having sort of knocked Starm around the park for most of the year, really shows that very often she only has one mode, and that is being as bellicose as possible.

3:38And on moments like today, when British troops are in the middle of actual conflict, it isn't really the kind of thing that you'd expect from the Leader of the Opposition to do. That being said, I think as we were saying yesterday, John, I think what is quite extraordinary at the moment about British politics is that we feel very, very strongly the shadow of Iraq hanging over 10 Downing Street and Keir Starmer. As we were saying yesterday, and particularly because, of course, Keir Starmer is Labour Prime Minister, it was Tony Blair who was responsible for our involvement in Iraq. What I find amazing, amazing, is how little that shadow seems to be being cast on other political parties and across much of, in particular, the right wing press in this country.

4:27Trump can say what he likes. Trump can say that Starmer is no Winston Churchill. But the truth is, is that Starmer's position, and we can see this from all of the polling, is exactly where the British public is. If anything, the British public is even more sceptical of our engaging with American activities on this than Starmer is. The reason it doesn't feel like it, the reason it feels as if Starmer is being weak in the face of Iranian aggression is because basically the position of the British public is not being well represented in the media or political parties. In the established press, you would think it were 2003 or 2002 all over again.

5:11The sort of steady drumbeat for war, clamour for Britain to be even more involved, to be this sort of quasi-colonial imperial power on the world stage, to get even closer to Trump. And that is a position which is just ubiquitous across the British press and in the newspapers. And then on social media, there's a lot of that as well on the right wing bit of social media. But on social media on the left, dominated by a sort of, you know, Corbyn way of thinking or a Green way of thinking, it's he should be slamming Trump. He should be condemning Trump. And actually, the truth is, is that the position of the British public is almost nowhere to be seen in our political parties and in our press and our social media.

5:48And the person who is actually embodying it is Keir Starmer. Yeah, and I think that it's worth just looking internationally at some of this where, look, Donald Trump has a history of falling out with people and saying obnoxious things about other leaders. You know, he was great mates with Narendra Modi, the Indian prime minister. He's not anymore. Zoramandani was this communist devil. He comes to the White House and they're suddenly best pals. you fall in and out of favour with Donald Trump as fashions change, as spring becomes summer and summer becomes autumn. I don't think it's any more than that at this stage.

6:26And for people to be hyperventilating about, is this the end of the special relationship as we've ever known? No, there's been a disagreement. And I think that Keir Starmer, I sense having thought very, very carefully about it, is comfortable in the position where he has landed. And there's been some really interesting reporting that I've seen today by Axios about the origins. Everyone's been trying to answer the question, why did America go when it went? Why now? Why now? The why now question. And apparently early last week, Netanyahu rings Trump and says, we have got intelligence that Khamenei is going to be meeting with the Iranian leadership on Saturday at this time in this place.

7:10trump takes the call gets the cia to check it out confirms it and they decide to go that is as much planning yeah of what the operation was and there's been no planning about what the operation becomes or how it ends and so in those circumstances for the british prime minister just to say yeah here's blank check yeah you can do whatever you like it's not unreasonable to say okay we're starting this and if you think you talk about the drumbeat to war in 2002 2003 the preparation for that was over a period of months indeed there was a un resolution 1441 that said that iraq was in material breach of you know the rules over weapons of mass destruction so there was stuff that was happening and it was a preparation this just bang out the blue we're attacking i think the fact that starmer has been willing to put space between himself and trump gives us an indication of just what you're talking about john which is how opaque the reasoning is even on the inside even in terms of what has been communicated to the british government and to starmer and how inchoate and how unclear the objectives are because i think given how much political capital Starmer has invested in the Trump relationship, how much he has been willing sometimes to embarrass himself, slightly, frankly, in becoming a sort of Trump whisperer, how much he has esteemed, I don't think wrongly, by the way, how much he has esteemed and believed that keeping Trump on side on certain big geopolitical questions has been so important for the UK, not least Ukraine.

8:53I think to be willing to at least risk sacrificing some of that gives us an indication of how little Starmer and the British government believe there is any sort of plan, any sort of mission, and how in the dark they are as to what the purpose is. I think Starmer was completely clear, much more clear than Trump has been at Prime Minister's questions about all of this. He said it, you know, briefly, but I think it was very telling. He said, what I was not prepared to do on Saturday was for the UK to join a war unless I was satisfied there was a lawful basis and a viable thought through plan. That remains my position.

9:34He is being crystal clear. He doesn't believe either exists. And as I say, I think that tells you everything that Starmer has been willing to allow this space to exist and potentially risk Trump's ire and blowback, which is what happened. That is how potentially ill-thought-through, and potentially calamitous, frankly, as a result of it being ill-thought-through, the entire thing is. I mean, over the past day or two, we've heard from Marco Rubio, the Secretary of State. We have heard from Pete Hegseth, the Secretary of War or the Defence Secretary, whichever you want to call him. We've heard from Trump.

10:10We've heard from J.D. Vance, the vice president all four of them have given completely different accounts of why this action took place and the more they spoke the less clear it became about what this was all about and so you can see that if you are a foreign government and you're being asked and i'm sure every instinct when you get the call from the u.s president to be alongside america your instinct is to say yes of course the problem is it was just so inchoate what they were trying to do there was no plan and actually if you look at american public opinion now there was no preparation of american public opinion for this action yeah there were two carrier groups that had gone to the area and you know it was probable that there would be some action at some point but the american public hadn't been prepared for it a lot of his base are very cross about it and the sort of questions that Keir Starmer was on the phone to Donald Trump saying well hang on but what is the plan and so Donald Trump hasn't been able to sell that to the American people either and that is why within America there is a considerable blowback to what Donald Trump is doing.

11:17That's the thing all of those people all of those so-called hawks all of those people who seem to think that it is Trump right or wrong in the British press and within British politics are essentially saying that Starmer and the UK government, without any sense of objective or mission or any sense of how it ends, should have hitched themselves and therefore ourselves to a war and a course of action, which they themselves, it is clear, do not know the purpose of. And if it is true, if it is true, which I think is maybe one of the most more disturbing parts of all of this, If it is true that the Americans basically did it because Netanyahu forced them to do it and Netanyahu played Trump, then that makes even less sense for us to do it.

12:06Because then we're not just getting played by Trump. We're getting played by Netanyahu and the Israeli government. And this is one of the greatest kind of, you know, mysteries of this entire thing is, you know, we said I remember when Trump came in and, you know, We talked a lot about the pressure that Trump might be able to bring to bear to get Netanyahu to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza, which sort of happened. Although some people will say, you know, it's only a partial ceasefire. It's not really holding. The Israelis are still doing very bad things. OK, well, there was an argument about that.

12:34What has become clearer and clearer is it's not Trump who can get Netanyahu to do things. It's Netanyahu who can get Trump to do almost whatever he wants. But Netanyahu has wanted to do this, attack Iran in this way since the late 1990s. And by the way, he's been warning that the Iranians have been on the verge of a nuclear missile since the late 1990s. So I'm not sure we should be necessarily crediting or outsourcing our military assessment on that matter to Benjamin Netanyahu. Because if he were right, Tel Aviv would have been flattened about 100 times by now by an Iranian nuclear bomb. But anyway, Netanyahu has tried to get every American president since the late 90s.

13:10Clinton, Bush, Obama Trump won Biden to do this none of them have done it but this time Trump basically bends over backwards to do whatever Netanyahu wants and I suspect that in part of Starmer's mind he just thought I'm not going to go along with that well I think that there was an element you know look you talk about I mean whether it was Netanyahu whether it was Trump whether they agreed whether they didn't agree the fact of the matter was that there was a plan to take out the leadership and nothing more and there was an opportunity because Iranian air defence defenses had been much weakened by the 12-day war last June.

13:45So yeah, okay, opportunity, let's take it, bang. Well, what are we going to do now? Just to interrupt there, I mean, the Israelis have said today that whoever the Iranians take out will kill them next. Well, where does that end? I mean, we just end up, is that the objective here, that basically Israel is allowed and we should be encouraging Israel to just kill the leader of Iran, whoever it is? Where does that get us long term? Well, that raises a slightly different question, which is what is it? You know, the Israeli objective, I think, is pretty clear that it wants regime change and it wants the end of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

14:20It wants it to stop being a theocratic state. It wants to see a very different Iran that will be perhaps a bit more amenable to Israel. And there is a recasting of the Middle East going on in Benjamin Netanyahu's vision of the world. But is that Donald Trump's vision of the world? Well, it was sort of on Saturday when he talked about the people rising up and taking back their country. Since when we have not heard a single word about that. So you'd be understand it'd be understandable if you're part of an Iranian opposition group where you're thinking, well, I can see that what they're trying to do in terms of getting rid of the regime.

14:53But where does it go? And again, we don't know the answer to that. No, we don't. And it feels as if, and this is, again, why I find it remarkable, that some of the tone, the glee, as we were talking about yesterday, about all of this in, you know, Trump showering a program on Starmer and all of that kind of thing. It seems to me that almost no matter what happens now, it's hard to see how Western interests are going to be advanced, European interests. If Israel are right that they're just going to keep killing whoever the Iranian leader is, sort of ad infinitum. This could go on for months and months, which is presumably going to destabilise the region even more.

15:29The Straits of Hormuz are basically entirely blocked. This is the waterway where much of the world's oil is directed through. We're already seeing profound volatility on international energy markets. We have the prospect in a couple of months time of domestic energy bills increasing by 500 pounds after a period during which they've already been extremely volatile and extremely high, that's in the UK, with potentially more to come. We see virtually every country in the Middle East affected. We see hundreds of thousands of Westerners and British citizens being stuck and stranded, again, without any apparent endpoints.

16:07And worst case scenario, absolute worst case scenario, let's say the Iranian regime does fall, but basically we see another Libya, because this also, we talk about Iraq, but this is quite reminiscent of what happened in Libya in 2011 as well, which was no ground troops, but we try and basically affect regime change or a form of regime change from the air. Well, maybe, maybe you can destroy the many-headed hydra and the Islamic regime collapses. But to be replaced with what exactly? Where we could be facing hundreds of thousands, if not more, of Iranian refugees heading towards Europe. They're not going to end up in America.

16:42They're going to end up in Europe. And I do wonder, I mean, I asked Richard Tice about this on my Sunday show on LBC. See, I do wonder if all of those people who are being quite so belligerent, quite so belligerent about the fall of the regime, would be quite so content to have those Iranian refugees ending up in small boats crossing towards Dover. Actually, let's just play that exchange. This is me with Richard Tice, the deputy leader in form, of course, on Sunday. I think from everything I'm hearing, actually, the likelihood is that Iranian dissidents will want to go back to Iran to help Iran.

17:17But if the revolution goes wrong... All of that, in a sense, is to look at over the coming months. What we must hope and give support is for the Persian people, the Iranian peace-loving people, hard-working people, to give them the maximum opportunity to get their country back. Iran, I just only mentioned it because we already have a reasonable flow of refugees from Iran. Iran, in fact, was the third most common nationality of refugees on small boats in 2025. But the issue is whether or not... Where was your support for those Iranians in small boats? Because our deep concern is that actually some of those have links to the regime looking to spread anti-Semitism.

17:54Within Iran, there are those who are part of the regime who are very bad people. And there are those who are good people. And we should be supporting the good people. And you've just got to have the courage to tell it as it is. And should we support them? As I say, if this revolution, which you're backing, goes wrong, you would welcome them if they appear on small boats. Let's back it to go right. That is what we've got to be totally focused on. You say there are bumps in the road. So there will be bumps in the road. And you keep supporting good people. That's what you do. So, yeah, Richard Tice doesn't want to engage on the prospect of thousands or tens of thousands of Iranian refugees heading towards Britain.

18:27But let me make a prediction on all of this. And, you know, I'm sure I'll be wrong. But I reckon. That's a spirit. Yeah, exactly. But I reckon that where we are heading, just listening to Trump over the past 48 hours, listening to Trump over the past 48 hours, of course, he's going to declare victory. There's no way he's going to say, oh, God, why did I ever get into this? This was a terrible, terrible decision. He's going to claim victory, but he's going to stop the bombing within a week or two, because once he sees oil prices going up at the pumps in America and Americans start saying, whoa, what the fuck are we doing in Iran?

19:02The cost of filling up my car with gas has gone through the roof. What are we doing here? Donald Trump will say, OK, enough's enough. they will have weakened the regime but the regime will be in place and you'll have a much smaller iranian army with far fewer stockpile a much smaller stockpile of missiles but the world will go on and it will have achieved a little bit but not very much the world will go on but assuming the regime survives which is which i think it will yeah i think i see it feels likely then whoever is heading up that regime bear in mind you know the ayatollah who they've killed he was 86.

19:39I mean, Time Scythe was probably going to come along and do the job for them without the American bombers. But nonetheless, like, presumably, in a sense, we'll be back to square one, which will be that the Iranian regime, whoever takes over, will be more determined than ever to try and advance their own security interests, and will be more determined than ever to get the bomb, because the bomb is the only means still. They've seen what happens when they don't have the bomb, which is they get attacked. And if they have the bomb, who else wants the bomb? Saudi Arabia wants the bomb because they've seen that they've been attacked by Iran.

20:12The UAE wants the bomb because they've been attacked by Iran. Does Trump think about any of this stuff? No, he doesn't think about any of this stuff because he doesn't think in terms of years or decades. He thinks in terms of news cycles. And I agree with you, John, completely that as soon as this, the hearts they hit home, given how little consent there was for it anyway, Trump will just declare victory. And you know who knows all of that? Starmer knows all of that. He's not stupid. He knows all of that. and he would have known all of that when he was looking at this on Saturday and weighing up the pros and cons.

20:39And he also knows, as you say, John, for all of the glee and the sort of, you know, just genuinely risible kind of schadenfreude that you're getting from some parts of the press, you know, loving, echoing this idea that he's no Churchill. Again, if Starmer wanted to, and I suspect he won't want to because he won't want to deepen the rift with Trump, but if he wanted to, this could be a real political moment for him as it was, for example, for Mark Carney in Canada. He can turn around. And if I were Keir Starmer right now, I would if I were doing my next poll interview where doubtless he'll be asked about it.

21:08He could in a very quiet, understated way simply say, look, President Trump, he says I'm no Churchill. Winston Churchill stood up for Britain and stood up for British national interest. And that's what I'll always do. And it's very, very simple. And he can choose to make this into a political moment for himself, not only sending a message to the voters, but to his own MPs. I think that the example of Mark Carney is such an interesting one because I keep hearing people saying to me, you know what, what Kirsten ought to do is to follow Mark Carney's model of being polite, but extremely firm with Trump and not being afraid to push back because that is the only language that Donald Trump understands.

21:49If he bullies you and you roll over, he bullies you some more. And so to stand up and to put this distance, as we've described, between himself and the American president may well be no bad thing. We'll be back in just a moment.

22:09From a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists. Good morning, I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. I will say the UK has been very, very uncooperative. They ruin relationships. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with. The Prime Minister sticks to his guns over Iran, but if Iran is the question, is a Churchillian response even the answer? The Conflict in the Middle East. Follow it live on LBC. Listen on our free Global Player app or the LBC app. When people turn to healthcare for weight loss, they're looking for real support.

22:46That's why more people are choosing orderlymeds.com. Orderly Meds connects you with real doctors and access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzepatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience. And all shipped directly to your door in discreet packaging. Do your research. Ask questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. That's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details.

23:18The News Agents. Right, let's talk about the spring statement, which is the Chancellor's second big sort of event of the year in the House of Commons. We didn't really have time to discuss it yesterday because there was so much going on with Iran. Although it is partly also because, in fairness to the Chancellor, she herself had, I think it's fair to say, lowered expectations. She said she was going to be boring. Who are we to disagree? Well, quite so. Promise made, promise kept. But anyway, the reason she said that slightly less flippantly is because there had been this sort of tradition in recent years that developed particularly under George Osborne and Gordon Brown before that to have these kind of almost a sort of second budget every year.

23:53Updates, which became a sort of second budget, which, you know, many people in business and others said, well, it's adding a lot of instability, lots of policy change all the time. So she was like, this is just going to be an update to the figures from the Office for Budget Responsibility compared to the budget in the autumn. The thing which got perhaps most attention of all, not least because, obviously, so many of the economic forecasts in terms of growth and unemployment were basically out of date before she even said them as a result of, in fairness to her, it's not her fault, but events in Iran and so on.

24:23The thing that got more attention, which is more likely to come true, is the long-term projections and forecasts on welfare spending. Staggering, really. Welfare spending will rise by 5.8 % this year alone. This year, so nearly 6 % of the year to 330 billion. forecast to hit 407 billion by 2031 that is being driven as i say to some extent by increased pensioner spending which is sort of locked there's not a huge amount you could do about that obviously you could change the triple lock but that's sort of demographic but a bigger component by then will be driven by health and disability related benefits indeed by 2031 the number of people claiming incapacity benefits is forecast to rise from 3.4 million to 4 million while the number of people claiming disability benefits will rise from this year six and a half million to nearly nine million.

25:16So these are rapid, rapid increases with massive implications for UK government spending. James Murray, the chief secretary to the Treasury, was asked this morning whether it is the UK government objective to reduce total welfare spending and the number of people on welfare. This is what he had to say. We've been clear that welfare spending needs to be made sure it keeps under control. Sorry, you can't say reduced. You were about to say reduced there and you stopped yourself. Do you want to cut welfare spending? Can I just be clear on this? Because there are different components of welfare spending and we know that it's gotten out of control in recent years in certain parts of the welfare system.