Is Trump running scared of his own war?

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0:33This is a Global Player original podcast. Mr. President, you've said the war is, quote, very complete, but your defense secretary says this is just the beginning. So which is it and how long should Americans be? Well, I think you could say both the beginning. It's the beginning of building a new country, but they certainly they have no Navy. They have no Air Force. They have no anti-aircraft equipment. It's all been blown up. They have no radar. They have no telecommunications and they have no leadership. It's all gone. That was Donald Trump last night at one of his golf courses discussing the war in Iran.

1:10And the thing about Donald Trump, he can both be inconsistent, incoherent and contradictory, but yet be utterly clear about what he wants. And it's clear he's wearied of the war in Iran. This may or may not have something to do with the fact that yesterday the price of oil reached$120 a barrel. The same day that Trump said that he thought that the war is very complete. A simple question. Has Trump bottled it over Iran? Welcome to the News Agents.

1:48The News Agents. It's John. It's Lewis. And I suppose we've got used to the idea that matters of war and peace are most commonly discussed at one of Donald Trump's golf courses. And so it was last night that he gave a news conference that felt like he was trying to convince himself as much as anybody else. And there were times when it was rambling. There were times when it was low energy. There were times when it was bizarre. But I think the the through line through all of it, was this sense that he's taken fright at what has happened to the oil price and how that might transfer to ordinary Americans' lives and is now thinking, oh, Christ, time to stop this.

2:34Got to get out of it somehow. And I'm getting ready to declare victory, though what victory means is anyone's guess. John, you and I said yesterday that we thought, and we're not trying to sort of say that we're sort of Cassandras. No, it's not that. But the truth is, is that Trump is quite easy to predict. And we said yesterday that the one thing, perhaps the one thing that Trump has shown sort of time and time and time again, that he recognizes a true restraint on his power and his freedom of action are basically market signals, usually over the price of energy and oil and the stock market, both of which were in a state of extreme volatility yesterday, particularly the price of oil.

3:20And so what did he end up doing? He made that press conference where he seemed, appeared to suggest, as we're saying, that the war is very much complete or nearly complete. And lo and behold, the price of oil starts to stabilise. Markets internalised it as precisely the idea that Trump had been basically scared by them into bringing the war into an early conclusion. This was Trump, I think, yesterday at one of the, even by his standards, the most confusing, the most rambling, and frankly, the most downbeat, the most dispirited, the most punctured that I've seen him actually for some time, exhausted, I think.

3:59He's offered contradictory justifications for the war. He's offered contradictory accounts for how it came about. And he did all of that once again, compressed into that press conference yesterday. I think when you and I said yesterday that he would get scared by the market sooner or later and then just declare victory in short order. I think you and I probably thought that that would probably take place over the course of the next week, not the next few hours. But as ever with Trump, things happen on double or triple or quadruple time. And I think what yesterday was about was a clear signal that he realises, I think, on some level that he lost control.

4:34And I think on some level is perhaps regretting at least elements of this action. I thought it was interesting how he started to talk about how many others had backed the idea had come up with the idea and had persuaded him of it including this exchange here where he talks about Steve Wyckoff his sort of foreign affairs guru Jared Kushner his son-in-law and Pete Hegseth the defense secretary or war secretary listen to this the situation was very quickly approaching the point of no return and the United States found it intolerable, in my opinion, based on what Steve and Jared and Pete and others were telling me, Marco was so involved, that I thought that they were going to attack us.

5:16I thought they would, if we didn't do this at the time we did it, I think they had in mind to attack us. So just think about that for a moment, that they were about to attack us and they were very close. In other words, they were close to getting a nuclear weapon, which underscores what total bullshit it was that we heard after the 12-day war last June when Trump said they had destroyed their nuclear ambitions with those successful strikes at Fordow and other places where there was a nuclear facility that Iran held. So either he was talking absolute nonsense last June. I think there is absolutely no evidence to back up what Donald Trump said then.

6:01And there was another point in the news conference, and this is one of the points of contention that will be re-litigated, I'm sure, which is of the cruise missile that hit the school, killing 140 school kids. And Donald Trump is saying, well, that might have come from another country. You just suggested that Iran somehow got its hands on a tomahawk and bombed its own elementary school on the first day of the war. But you're the only person in your government saying this. Even your defense secretary wouldn't say that when he was asked, standing over your shoulder on your plane on Saturday. Why are you the only person saying this?

6:35Because I just don't know enough about it. I think it's something that I was told is under investigation. But tomahawks are used by others, as you know. Numerous other nations have tomahawks. they buy them from us. But I will certainly, whatever the report shows, I'm willing to live with that report. Well, the only countries that have got Tomahawk cruise missiles are America, the British, and the Australians. I don't think we've been selling Tomahawk cruise missiles to the Iranian regime, which is what Donald Trump seems to be alleging. And again, you just think there's no factual basis for any of this.

7:13I sat there wondering, is anyone taken in by this? I I know Donald Trump is given a lot of latitude. I know the mantra that we are to take him seriously and not literally. But this is over the stuff of war. And you just feel, I don't buy any of this. And at one point, he was asked by a reporter that you promised the Iranian people that you would help them. And he says, will I help them? I'd like to if they can behave. But they've been very menacing. So, again, something else that he's put forward over the course of the last few weeks. and a lot of the neocons in particular, the right-wing commentators, have lectured the rest of us about how much more caring they are about the plight of the Iranian people, which is profound and appalling.

7:57And they've had to deal with this regime for decade after decade, this murderous, barbarous regime, and then have portrayed Trump as the guy who wants to finally liberate them from the crushing yoke of the Ayatollah, now replaced by his son, of course, the 86-year-old man, replaced by a younger version of himself. But in fact, it's very, very clear that this isn't about the Iranian people. Indeed, Trump has said throughout, even in the run-up to the bombings, he'd said throughout that if the Iranians had done what he'd wanted, the Ayatollah would still be in place now because he would have cut a deal.

8:28So again, you know, the endless mutating, shape-shifting justifications of the war, I think basically reaffirm the wisdom of all of those, including Keir Starmer, who were pretty sceptical about it from the first place. So that bit that he said, that kind of Q &A that you refer to there, what about helping the Iranian people? he sort of said something like you know if they behave themselves i thought he'd misunderstood the question i thought he was asking a question about the regime but it was just i'm sorry it was just incoherent what he said what does he think that the protesters have been naughty in protesting against the regime no i don't think i just don't know what he meant it was one of those things where i just cannot fathom what it is you're trying to say here mr president but also i mean like just to go back to that thing where he said look based on what steve and jared and peace and others were telling me marco is also so involved marco rubio the secretary of state i thought they were going to attack us now the way i i see that is as follows there's only real two possible conclusions from that right which is that one the four of them including these you know new york property developers and a fox news host are the genesis of this war and persuaded the president that the iranians were imminently about to attack the united states something that trump himself told us, as you say, John, was impossible only nine months ago because they had, quote, obliterated the Iranian nuclear threat.

9:51So either they persuaded him of that obvious falsehood, in which case he was basically being manipulated, or they didn't really try and persuade him. And Trump is trying to shift and pass the buck, already probably perceiving that this is not gone as he thought, i.e. Venezuela Mark II and the political consequences are way worse. He's already trying to shift the blame and pass the buck as Truman famously said he would never do onto those around him in terms of the genesis of the war that's how I read that and I think that tells you something about the psychology of Trump one way or the other either he's been manipulated into something that clearly I think was a mistake or he's already passing the buck so I think the manipulation I think the origins of this war are quite simple to understand and that Yahoo we should Yes, exactly.

10:37And that is that Mossad probably had gathered amazing intelligence on where the Iranian leadership were going to be, what they were doing, when they were due to meet and where and at what time. The Americans were brought in on that intelligence. They checked their own sources via the CIA, found it to be true and thought, right, let's take them out, roll the dice. and they roll the dice and then Iran fires back. And it doesn't just fire back at Israel. It fires at the Gulf states. It fires at Azerbaijan. It fires at Cyprus. It fires at Turkey. And suddenly you've got this spreading outwards and you've got the Strait of Hormuz more or less closing.

11:16And so America goes for more bombing and more bombing and more missiles. And so it goes on as it has done for the last 10 days. And shock horror, fuel prices have gone up. And so what has started where Donald Trump thought, oh, this is really simple. We'll just take out the leadership. And just like in Venezuela, we'll get a new leadership and there'll be a bit better. No, the whole thing has been based on a miscalculation. I think probably if you're Israel, you're quietly satisfied that the neighbour that had the power to really attack and destroy, you know, via its proxies and via Iran itself has been weakened very much so.

11:55but I don't know what America has won from this. Well, again, I think Israel, I agree. I mean, in its own, on a short-term basis, the Israeli government probably has the most to be happy about this. Netanyahu probably has the most to be happy about. With all of this, there are talks in Israel of early elections. Netanyahu thinks that in the immediate wake of this, the elections were due in the autumn, but there is talk, I read, that Netanyahu might bring that forward to June or July in an attempt to try and enjoy any kind of post-war haze or sort of enjoy a sort of post-war glow than you might get from that electorally.

12:25I think there are some people who still think that's relatively unlikely, but nonetheless. It feels to me so often at the moment as if, and we've seen this in geopolitics over the last 12 months or so, is that, you know, we are reminded that we talk a lot about the special relationship with the UK and the US. There's only really one special relationship, and that's the US and Israel. And in particular, under Trump, we are seeing the relationship between Netanyahu and Trump, which, you know, a lot of us thought that Trump might use some of his muscularity, which looked like it was possible in the early days of the conflict with the ceasefire to bring Netanyahu to heal a little bit.

12:57I think it's been shown that actually it's the other way around. Time and time again, to use your phrase, John, it is the Israeli tail which is wagging the American dog. And not just the American dog, but the Western one. I mean, the entire Western world, the entire world really is being convulsed as a result of the security needs of the Israeli state as Netanyahu sees it. Now, that might be legitimate or not legitimate, but there can be no doubt that the way that Netanyahu perceives the Iranian threat is driving so much of this. Yes, look, Netanyahu is the most formidable political operator. I mean, could anyone have imagined that after October the 7th, when the most shameful day in national security terms for Israel, that Hamas was able to launch this murderous attack in southern Israel and kill over a thousand Israeli and take, you know, three or four hundred people hostage in that dreadful, dreadful day, that he would be back able to think about going to the country early in a general election because this is my moment.

14:03So, you know, Netanyahu's ability to kind of rebound is phenomenal. Even if the last airstrike is called off by the time you listen to this podcast this evening, we still don't know what the long term implications are going to be for the Gulf region. Do Bahrain, the UAE and Qatar feel that this has been a good operation by America and it's improved the situation? Or do they think that America has actually let us down here, has kind of led us halfway up and maybe it's time to re-evaluate our relationship with Iran? Maybe it's time to re-evaluate our relationship with Israel because, frankly, we had been getting closer and maybe that's not a great place to be.

14:43So all of these pieces are yet to settle. The kaleidoscope has not kind of formed its shape yet. And I just do think we don't know what the consequences of this are going to be. and Donald Trump is just looking at the shortest of shortest term thinking on this. You know, what's the oil price? Does this affect my prospects in the midterms? Well, I mean, the thing is, John, of course, is that Trump might declare victory and say that's it and it is very complete. Not you can be very complete, but nonetheless. But of course, the thing is about a war is that there are two parties to a war. So Trump might say that it's over.

15:20The Iranians might not agree that it's over Because the Iranians might think that right now, yeah, they're back against the wall. Yes, they've been degraded militarily, but they might have some interest as the regime in continuing to prosecute the war and weakening the United States in, as they've very successfully done, spreading this conflict across the entire Middle East and causing instability. And I will just note this as well, is that, look, if the aim of this, let's just judge it on what Trump said when this war began, which was he said it was about regime change. Yeah, the Ayatollah is dead.

15:52He's been replaced by his own son, a younger, as I say, version of himself. And what have we seen on the streets of Iran over the course of the last few days? Yes, there's no doubt, huge as there always has been, distaste for hatred of the regime. There have also been the hardliners, the supporters of the regime, turning out for the Ayatollah in the wake of his death, you know, showing their support for the new supreme leader. I think there is a clear, again, people who know around better than I do that you read, They will say, you know, there is a clear possible outcome of all of this, which is that, yes, this is a regime which is bloodied, but it is not bowed.

16:27And in fact, it has probably been fortified in place to some extent by the Americans and by the Israelis and by the aerial bombardment, because they have been able, as so often happens in these situations with aerial bombardments and with the ability to portray, you know, foreigners trying to destroy you. they have been able to wrap themselves in the flag and be able to say that they are the true embodiment of Iran and its people. And of course, there'll be loads and loads of people within Iran who disagree with that and continue to hate them. But the domestic consequences of this in terms of the regime's own standing remain unknowable.

17:00And there is a timeline where, if anything, they have been strengthened in place. Who knows what would have happened if the Ayatollah had just died and what effect that would have had without American intervention? We'll never know now. yeah and you know as you say lewis iran has to play ball as well here and say okay yeah you stop firing well we'll stop firing what if they don't what if they still threaten the straits of homoos through which 20 of the world's oil and lng flows there ain't gonna be a deal now is there i think we can say that for sure yeah maybe there wouldn't have been anyway but we can say there definitely won't be now so i think from that point of view as well you think well have we ended uncertainty I mean, look, Donald Trump probably did what he wanted to do last night, which was to lower the oil price by the words that he said that, you know, we've achieved more or less totally our war aims and this, you know, operation succeeded and therefore we can move on.

17:52But I still think there are this has still has so much uncertainty to play out. You said earlier, Lewis, about Starmer and how this vindicates the position he took. And if we are to say that there is a victory for Britain in this, there is one area where I think we've been made to look ridiculous. And that is in terms of our defence forces and the fact that HMS Dragon is still in the naval dockyard at Portsmouth, still unable to leave port, despite this being over a week now since we said we would deploy. and you look at what the French are doing in terms of the frigates that they have deployed and talking about escorting shipping through the Straits of Hormuz, we look pretty small and inconsequential.

18:44And that is not to decry or diminish the heroics of our air crews who are out there and trying to take out Iranian missiles and drones. You ain't Kemi Baden, no? Sorry? You're not Kemi Baden, no? I know, but look at it. I mean, it does look like our defence force. You know, Britain rules the waves. Are you having a laugh? We can't even launch one ship to go and protect Cyprus. Well, I agree. I think the most consequential questions for Starmer remain about, and the government remain about, the preparedness, which does seem to have been flawed. I mean, I do think that, as I was saying yesterday, I do think that with, you know, with every passing day, the decision by Starmer to delay access to bases politically has just been so sound.

19:22Not least because I think that the truth is, is that what you can actually say, is that actually in the end, And Starmer gave the Americans most of what they wanted anyway. But I mean, this sounds a bit grubby, but politically, he can say he can say I put my hands. I said he appears more against it in some senses than practically speaking that he is. Now, that's had some cost in every direction because Trump has clearly been pissed off. But he's way less pissed off than he would have been if we just said no access to the bases at all under any circumstances as critics of Starmer's left would have done.

19:52So I think that, you know, and Starmer, as I was saying yesterday, doesn't own any of the economic damage that will happen, which he would have done if he had been seen to back Trump more. So I think that, you know, politically speaking, at least I can see why he and his cabinet, and it seems his cabinet were particularly strident on this, were absolutely completely right to be very wary of the political consequences of this. Not least because what is the gain for them? Anyways, we're discussing what is the game. One other thing, just in terms of the geopolitical game, you talk about the oil price, John.

20:20What happened yesterday as part of Trump's effort to try and stabilise the oil price? Well, he said that the US, the Trump administration, will lift sanctions on some oil-producing countries to keep energy prices down amid the US and Israel's war on Iran. Which principal country are we talking about? Let me guess, is it a big country? It's a big country, yeah. Eastern Europe? Yeah, and the rest. Eurasia, Russia. He had a three hour conversation with Vladimir Putin. And after that conversation, that is Trump, Trump administration announced that they were lifting certain sanctions which have been in place since the start of the Ukraine war.

20:56The big short term winner out of all of this is Vladimir Putin. Another reason, another thing I'm sure which would have been weighing on the minds of the British cabinet when they were discussing this a couple of weekends ago. And you talk about the position that Starmer got himself in, which, you know, and you say there is political upside for him to have shown a certain reluctance towards the war. What about the internal politics in America? Because, of course, at the moment, you've got Trump there, who's got, you know, three years to go until he's out of office. And you've got Marco Rubio hoping to succeed him, the secretary of state.

21:30And you've got J.D. Vance, the vice president. And Trump was asked this question at his news conference yesterday. What's a disagreement between yourself and your vice president when it comes to U.S. action in Iran? I don't think so. No, no, we get along very well on this. He was, I would say, philosophically a little bit different than me. I think he was maybe less enthusiastic about going, but he was quite enthusiastic. But I felt it was something we had to do. I didn't feel we had a choice. if we didn't do it they would have done it to us. So I guess what you're going to have now is J.D. Vance thinking I've probably played this quite smartly as well because Rubio is the most closely identified with the war and J.D.

22:18Vance we understand a little more sceptical. Yeah I don't think that Vance will be remotely unhappy given what we know about the inclinations on these matters of the MAGA base that he is known to have been sceptical about this. Someone else who's proven to be more sceptical than perhaps when he started at least. It's very interesting to have watched this over the last couple of weeks. We start off with this drumbeat of war, particularly from the right of politics and in the right-wing papers. Very interesting to note that reform have been on a bit of a journey on this, where initially, I mean, I interviewed people from reform that first weekend on LBC about whether or not they backed the war.

22:56I had Richard Tice telling me that it was disgraceful that Starmer had not sort of fully backed the Americans. And I know that since then, Robert Jenrick and Nigel Farage have made it clear that they think it's probably a bad idea to be getting involved in these foreign conflicts. This is Nigel Farage talking about this just this morning. Keeping British people safe and secure is any government's number one priority. But if you can't even agree a position amongst the leadership, how do you expect people to trust your national security? Well, I tell you what, But given that we can't even send a Royal Naval vessel to defend British sovereign territory and an RAF base, we certainly don't have the capability to offer anything of any value to the Americans or the Israelis.

23:40So defending the base, recognising the catastrophe that is now the Royal Navy. And by the way, President Macron is really, frankly, showing the humiliating state that we've sunk to today with his very decisive actions and his intention to help clear quite remarkable really turn around in the space of a fortnight i think part of that is because of the economic consequences which have started to flow i think part of it is because even they have recognized that the aims of the war are extremely unclear and also there's a certain political gravity there has been a complete mismatch between where a lot of elite political commentary has been in this country, a lot of where the papers have been who have been deeply bellicose, Starm are being accused of being a coward and all this sort of stuff, and actually where public opinion is, something that Farage in particular is usually very good at being able to suss out and assess.

24:33Actually, the truth is that public opinions we were discussing last week is highly, highly sceptical of this war. In fact, since the polling started at the beginning of the war, about 10 days ago or so, it is hardened, I think, by another 10 points against Trump and whether we should be supporting him on it. Can I give you some business news now from Florida? Please do. I just thought we'd have a little section. Are we invested in something? Well, not me personally, but there is a company called Power Us which makes drones. Donald Trump has announced that they can no longer rely on Chinese drones and he wants to support the growth of an American drone industry, which is understandable, in the US.

25:11Well, there's a company called Power Us, which has now got a merger going on with a publicly traded golf course holding company. Do you want to have a guess who the directors are of this golf course trading company? Is it is it Jeremy Corbyn? No, it's Zara Sultana. No, it's Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. So they're going to be bidding for government contracts to produce drones. and the ceo of powerus has said to the wall street journal that the drone market is certainly going to grow faster than say golf courses are i think that's fair i think that is some market insight in fairness you can't knock it you can't knock it where's that conflict of interest oh look it's getting bigger so there it is we've got a pentagon contract up and we've got a company called powerus does anyone know anything about it they seem very good i'm sure they'll do very very well we'll be back just after this

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26:48And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research, ask the right questions, then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice eligibility required. See site for details. From a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists. Good morning. I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. They have no Navy. They have no Air Force and they have no leadership.