Live Q&A: Iran, Trump, and 'no d*ck energy'

17:39Jon Sopel:It's the time for standing firm and just being very calm, very measured. But I think to get into a slanging match with Donald Trump, no one wins. Donald Trump has always got better insults than you.

17:50Lewis Goodall:Yeah, absolutely. I mean, like, you know, there are members of his cabinet today who tried that. Yeah, Marco Rubio. A long distant past, you know. Yeah, exactly. And some of his fiercest advocates today, Ted Cruz or all the rest, and they've all tried to play him in his game. And the truth is, no one is as petty or as venal or as willing to go as low as he is. You can't beat him. And so you might as well, I mean, they've concluded you might as well join him. Starmer is not in that category, but he has to conclude, he has to work with him. I actually think, like we've been saying all week, yeah, there have been some stories about, you know, splits in his cabinet and, you know, about his personal political strength, whatever.

18:27Lewis Goodall:I still think that there is a strong possibility that we look back at this week and say that Starmer acted, it was actually had one of his best weeks because he has, despite the enormous clamour that I still can't quite understand, the sort of British media war machine has sort of got into full gear as well, completely forgotten about every single lesson of Iraq and Libya and our constant meddling in the Middle East. I don't say this is a pacifist, by the way. I say this is someone who's quite hawkish on quite a lot of these matters. But nonetheless, I'm pro-American, but nonetheless, basically 90 % of the British media has been desperate for Keir Starmer to do something that basically almost no one in Britain wants him to do, which is to sign up to a war without objective, without end or without method, sign up British troops to take part in it, basically completely outsource our foreign policy to the most unhinged occupant of the Oval Office who has ever existed.

19:24Lewis Goodall:and they want him to do that and put British troops in harm's way for no apparent reason, just because Trump wants him to do. And I think that he has shown a fair bit of steel and a fair bit of judgment, actually, in refusing to do so. And people often say that, you know, they think that he ought to be stronger and that he ought to, you know, show us who he really is. I think he has shown us who he really is this week. I think it's to be commended.

19:47Jon Sopel:Yeah, and look, I agree completely and we've both been on the same page of this. I was with someone last night, former kind of senior civil servant, who was saying he should have just done one thing or the other. You either go all in like Canada and Australia did or you make a principal stand and then you don't. But you don't move from that.

20:07Lewis Goodall:But I don't really understand that because how could he when our allies are being attacked, how could he then refuse? And if American soldiers are being fired upon by Iran, how could he refuse the Americans the opportunity to use our bases to defend them? On some sense, we would then be partly responsible for their deaths. But you wonder whether it will move again.

20:27Jon Sopel:Possibly. I think that there's going to be another nudge. And David Lammy, the deputy prime minister, sort of almost hinted as much this morning in a radio interview that, you know, Britain could start taking out some of these.

20:40Lewis Goodall:Well, I suppose if the Iranians start to attack British military assets on a more, I know it's sort of happening. Yeah, but if it starts happening in a more sustained way, and certainly if anybody's killed or anything like that, I suppose we'll have no choice. Although it does seem that, you know, the Iranians are running out of missiles. They're running out of ballistics quite rapidly. So I'm not sure the extent to which they're going to have missiles and drones to spare to start attacking British targets.

21:03Jon Sopel:Yeah, I mean, it's interesting that because is it possible that, I mean, it may be that they're running out of ballistic missiles or they're rationing them because they want to play this very long. And so to still be able to cause mayhem and surprise by, you know, launching another ballistic missile attack. Possibly.

21:17Lewis Goodall:I mean, all I just think we've got to the end of the week and it's clear that this has spiralled so rapidly out of control. Azerbaijan. Yeah, and I think that Starmer could see that coming and didn't want any part of it, and I think that's fair enough. Sam in London says, earlier this week, a Marine veteran named Brian McGuinness shouted protests against the Iran war during a congressional hearing. He resisted being ejected from the chamber. A Republican senator named Tim Sheehy, himself a former Navy SEAL, joined the effort to throw McGuinness out. as McGuinness clung to the door and shouted no one wants to fight for Israel she his forces snapped his arm has something left the soul of American civilization has so-called toxic masculinity in America now become weapons grade I Sam it's a very interesting question and it's

22:06Jon Sopel:very troubling the way some of the political debate is covered and I know we've got a question as well about the language being used by Pete Hegseth the secretary of war except he's still the defence secretary um where i think small dick energy i think yeah exit you've got a thing going here yeah okay you are going to be banned from the studio one more use of the word dick okay okay sorry john there we are we just got to keep certain standards up here we may have left we've got to keep standards going whereas for god's sake this is britain um i i don't know i think that for the most part the thing that struck me when i moved to america was the civility of so many people and these two things are going side by side which is kind of gives a lot of dissonance in the sense that you meet people and you'll meet a you know a MAGA republican and they'll be polite and they'll be charming and they'll be very but then you kind of hear their views and they start getting very aggressive there is undoubtedly much more frat boy towel snapping energy and the way that debate is conducted has moved into the political sphere i would say that america has always had yeah a much more robustious political dynamic than britain and you know you go back to the force first gulf war and storming norman schwarzkopf who was in charge of u.s forces then and it was the first time we'd seen sort of video film of attacks taking place and it was you know a kind of bridge someone a lorry going across a bridge and the bridge getting blown up and them all having a laugh about it i mean some of that stuff has been going on for quite a long time now but i do think you're right look you know the the tolerance of opposition and respectfully disagreeing is not something you're seeing a huge amount of in the states

23:58Lewis Goodall:right now no that's right i mean i do think that there has been in fairness that there has long been this strain of political violence in the United States. I don't just mean political violence in the streets. I also mean in terms of the rhetoric. It's always just beneath the surface. It's weird because on the one hand, in Britain, our parliamentary activity, our chair of the House of Commons, is often much more robust than we see in the United States. I mean, the Congress, I mean, you know, it's better than anyone, John, but, you know, I've sat in congressional debates, I mean, quite literally.

24:28Lewis Goodall:I mean, it is absolutely, I mean, I can even think of some of our rival podcasts I'd rather listen to as opposed to that. I mean, honestly, how you doing, Rory? Anyway. No dick energy. Right. That is the last time. That is the last time. Anyway, you know, they are literally a, you know, a senator or whatever literally goes into the chamber, literally gives a speech to an empty room apart from the presiding officer, literally just to put it on the record. No debate. No nothing. We don't have that. Thankfully, our chamber is much more alive. And yet occasionally in American politics, the strain of kind of violence that we sort of saw this week just beneath the surface, even in a parliament, is there.

25:09Lewis Goodall:And obviously the most famous example is what happened with Charles Sumner in the Civil War. Charles Sumner, anti-slavery senator, two days later, pro-slavery congressman Preston Brooks walks into the Senate chamber, nearly beats him to death with a cane on the Senate floor. And this is one of the sort of great events that leads up to the Civil War beginning in 1860. You know, literally a guy beats death. And actually, when the guy who beat Sumner went into the Senate chamber a couple of days later, he was cheered by pro-slavery, the pro-slavery side. So this does, this strain of violence in American politics is longstanding.

25:47Lewis Goodall:It's long been there. But I think it's fair to say that with a hyper-polarisation, hyper-hyper-partisanship that we now see in American politics and the kind of twin realities, which sort of, you could argue, kind of existed in the 19th century. You could argue the kind of more settled post-war world was the kind of exception in American politics and American history. And I think it's a sort of strong case for that. But nonetheless, you have seen all of these views and come together and you see extraordinary scenes like we've seen this week.

26:15Jon Sopel:Yeah, and the fact of the matter is that, you know, you're absolutely right. I mean, Senate debates, congressional debates, the hearings are tedious, often beyond belief. House of Commons. I mean, you know, when when the Nazis bombed the Commons chamber in the Second World War, Churchill decreed that you actually had to maintain that one, that it should be adversarial. The MPs facing each other from one side to the other. Two, that it should be too small for all the MPs to fit into so that you had that sense of it being crowded and slightly claustrophobic. And if you, you know, if you ever visit the Commons Chamber, you'll notice there are two red lines on either side of the green benches down the carpet.

26:59Jon Sopel:And those are two sword lengths apart, which means you mustn't cross there where you could attack each other with a sword. But of course, they don't do. So we have a very adversarial system, but we do not have that history. I mean, you know, yes, there have been terrible instances of MPs being killed in recent years, but we don't have that same sort of history of political violence in the same way that they do in America.

27:24Lewis Goodall:Just on some more 1924 trivia. Oh, good. An Olympic medal was given for an event, something that had taken place two years before. Can you guess what it was? It was for a special category of Olympic event that has not been repeated ever in any Olympics since.

27:41Jon Sopel:Firing someone out of a cannon. It's not a circus Olympics, John. What do you think Coco the Clowns has been given a bronze?

27:48Lewis Goodall:You are reducing this podcast to a circus, Mr Goodall. Okay. It was actually given for Mount Everest. There was a special award for a category called Alpinism given to the members of the 1922 British Mount Everest expedition, even though they didn't reach the summit, but they still got a gold.

28:04Jon Sopel:So they got a gold medal for not getting there. I know. It's pathetic, isn't it?

28:07Lewis Goodall:I mean, they should have saved you. The rot started to set in in this country when that happened. We started to reward for, rewards for failure. Exactly.

28:14Jon Sopel:should have saved it until you know Threadman Hillary got up there of course we've got a new award haven't we John oh what the crime agents no not the crime no I'm talking about the Golden Globes oh yeah the Golden Globes have now got a podcast

28:28Lewis Goodall:yeah we are going to be there so if anyone does know anyone on the Golden Globes award committee whatever that is then we're very grateful for your representation and obviously

28:38Jon Sopel:we're available for bribes and other means to which you could influence the decision of the judges. All you need to do is ask. We'll give.

28:46Lewis Goodall:Correct. And we've got another YouTube question here, which is, when is the next live tour? Well, it could be in LA if we get the Golden Globes. Is it possible to do that with a number of holidays John and Emily have? Great question. Great question. I don't think it would be possible. Well, unless we did it in the Asia Pacific.

29:02Jon Sopel:Yeah. I mean, Emily is, as we speak, feeding kangaroos, I think. Yes. Which is, she seems to have been doing rather a lot since she's got to Australia. See, I go to Australia so often.

29:11Lewis Goodall:Well, yes. I mean, we're only on the 6th of March. And between you, I believe you spent a whole month in Australia this year.

29:18Jon Sopel:Wait, were you here last week, the week before?

29:20Lewis Goodall:Well, I was away for five days. Yeah, well, you were away. In Lanzagrotti. I think that is like, honestly, I think I deserve that. Lanzagrotti. That's what they call it. It's actually very lovely. Honestly. But it's not the Asia Pacific, is it? Well, no. They won't let me go that. I can't go that far. Because if I go that far, one of you will end up feeding some bloody joey in New South Wales or God knows where.

29:39Jon Sopel:Are you suggesting you are indispensable? Yes. Shall we move on? I think we've got a voice note from Adam in North London.

29:46Lewis Goodall:Well, actually, hold fire, John, because we will bring you that question and answer that question right after the break.

29:55Jon Sopel:From a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists. Good morning, I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. I will say the UK has been very, very uncooperative. They ruin relationships. This is not Winston Churchill that we're dealing with. The Prime Minister sticks to his guns over Iran, but if Iran is the question, is a Churchillian response even the answer? The Conflict in the Middle East. Follow it live on LBC. Listen on our free global player app or the LBC app. When people turn to health care for weight loss, they're looking for real support.

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30:39Lewis Goodall:semaglutide and terzepatide. No guessing, just a more supportive experience.

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31:01Lewis Goodall:It's sport's greatest soap opera And we've got your VIP pass to all the drama This is Up to Speed

31:07Jon Sopel:Your new Formula One podcast With me, Will Buxton, David Coulthard, Naomi Schiff and Jolie Sharp Expect unfiltered race reactions Behind the scenes insight And blockbuster interviews

31:20Lewis Goodall:Plus answers to the questions you've always wanted to ask Like, do F1 drivers pass their driving test first time?

31:27Jon Sopel:Yeah, spoiler, they don't. When the race weekend's over, we're here to keep you up to speed. Listen and watch today.

31:35Lewis Goodall:Search Up to Speed on Global Player. Up to Speed.

31:48Jon Sopel:The News Agents. Good morning, News Agents. I'm Adam from North London, and I wanted to ask, which former Prime Minister would you most like to see a comeback of, given the current geopolitical tensions?

32:01Lewis Goodall:Go on. You're not allowed to say Tony Blair, John. I'm not going to. No? Well, I... OK, go on. I think, well, continuing on from where we started, which is that the world increasingly looks a bit sort of pre-First World War, maybe like Lloyd George. Lloyd George was a spiky, clever statesman. The Welsh wizard. The Welsh wizard, a very clever statesman, represented the UK at Versailles. Versailles, which was basically, that really was the Board of Peace of its day, a sort of world government. I think you need someone who is able, who has that sort of quicksilver approach. And actually, you know, I mean, it's actually been quite rare to sort of go on a sort of prolonged defence of Kiyosama.

32:43Lewis Goodall:But you know what? I don't think that for all of his other faults, which are there, particularly on the domestic sphere, I can think of worse prime ministers to currently... place right now. And I think there are other prime ministers who would have gone along with the kind of drumbeat to war machine and assume, make the fatal mistake, which I think Blair did make, which was that a British prime minister has to be with the American president, come what may, despite the fact that whether it's the Vietnam War with Harold Wilson and LBJ, or vice versa with the Falklands. I mean, people forget now for all of how close Ronald Reagan and Margaret Thatcher were.

33:21Lewis Goodall:In the early days and weeks of the Falklands War, Reagan tried to, because Argentina was an important ally in the Cold War for him, anti-communist ally, he tried to sort of be a sort of mediating figure between the two sides, much to Thatcher's fury. He eventually sort of weighs in behind the British. But there are lots and lots of occasions during the post-war period where Britain and America are not on the same page. They're in the same book, to express the metaphor, but they're not always on the same page.

33:45Jon Sopel:Yeah, I agree with you. I think that Starmer, on the world stage, has looked very comfortable. I mean, it looks like he's kind of at ease with these people. He knows what the national interest is. He knows where he wants to be. He's worked out that, you know, he wants to have a much closer relationship with Europe and while still maintaining good relations with the US. I mean, I suppose my slight hesitation about your question, Adam, is the idea that any British leader is going to make any difference to the geopolitical tensions when you've got someone like Donald Trump in the White House and you've got Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin.

34:26Jon Sopel:I'm not sure how biddable these people are. I'm not sure what you could say to Netanyahu or to what is left of the Iranian leadership that would have any impact whatsoever. And I just think that we sometimes exaggerate the role that we can play in these things of reducing tensions in the world when this is superpower stuff and we ain't no superpower.

34:53Lewis Goodall:I know this has been one of the things that's frustrated me throughout the course of the week in terms of some of the commentary. I've seen loads and loads of commentary saying, you know, particularly from some commentators on the right saying, you know, Britain has never felt less relevant. Britain has never, you know, in all my lifetimes like, yeah, well, we probably haven't been. I mean, that's probably true because Britain has been on one long relative decline. We are a middle ranking power. We're still an important country. We've got an important military player. You know, we used to be more important than we are now, partly because we were in the EU.

35:22Lewis Goodall:We were a leading player in the EU. We could corral that. But the truth is some of those people who have been making those complaints this week have been central to the diminishment of Britain's standing over that period. because the pillars of our foreign policy used to be the transatlantic alliance, our EU membership, and to a lesser extent, our Commonwealth connections. Well, the Commonwealth has never been less relevant. The transatlantic alliance is now led by a man who likes Britain in the sense of it, he likes the thought of it, and he likes the monarchy, he likes the thought of us as a sort of theme park, but has no real attachment to us or anybody else, and is completely and utterly unpredictable.

35:56Lewis Goodall:And we're now on the outer periphery of Europe, out in the cold, because we're not within the political structures of the EU. So guess what? Yeah, we do feel less relevant than we have before, because basically over the last 10 years, some of these people who are complaining, some of it structural as well, and some of it relative decline, has consigned Britain to a less powerful standing than we used to have. And that isn't Keir Starmer's fault. Oh, and just by the way, in answer to on the prime minister's question, of course, we did have a prime minister, a bit of trivia here, who spoke some Farsi.

36:28Lewis Goodall:So we could have him. Do you know who that was, John? um yeah it wasn't list trust was it how's she speaking something i think she speaks in tongues these days um no anti-eden

36:39Jon Sopel:i was gonna guess eden and i was gonna not that it helped him with his middle east no but i was gonna say eden is the person because my god the mistakes he made and when you talk about the relevance of britain i mean wasn't that the turning point the suez crisis that when the globe was I'm responsible for that. Probably. But, you know, but there you had a time where Britain thought it could still go on a post imperial course with the French and the Israelis to block the nationalisation of the Suez Canal. And what happens is that America says, no, you've got to stop. And Britain says, no, we're going to carry on.

37:16Jon Sopel:And America says, OK, we'll bankrupt you. And Britain folded at need and was left and, you know, had to resign as prime minister. It was a catastrophe.

37:25Lewis Goodall:And this is what's so irritating about the kind of, you know, we don't hear much about global Britain anymore. Yeah. Because global Britain and Brexit. And look, as I've always said, you know, there's so many faults with the EU. I'm not a massive actual EU europhile. But but the fact of the matter is, is that, you know, what happened 10 years ago now is we basically decided to leave the EU on the basis of a world that we can see in 2026 no longer exists. It was a still relatively settled post-Cold War world. It was a world where we assumed that the direction was against protectionism and towards free trade and a world where the geopolitical order was relatively settled.

38:03Lewis Goodall:What have we seen instead? We are now find ourselves as Britain, little Britain. we find ourselves in a situation where we can't go into the world as global Britain because we see massive both commercial, trade and military geopolitical power blocks, whether it's the United States, Russia, China, all playing out these proxy wars all over the world, engaged in massive great power rivalry and competition. And where do we find ourselves? These people sort of complaining that we're not at the table. No, we're not at the table. because the only way conceivably we really could have been at the table is leading or part of a large European bloc.

38:40Lewis Goodall:And that is no longer available to us.

38:43Jon Sopel:Let's get this question from Matt in Bournemouth. Do you think one reason Trump has decided to take this action in Iran now is to create another distraction from the Epstein files? Love the show. And please do another tour. There's a demand for us to be out on tour. I know.

39:00Lewis Goodall:I know. Well, I mean... We're like the Beach Boys.

39:04Jon Sopel:really? OK. Just take that metaphor one step further. We're all blonde haired?

39:10Lewis Goodall:Yeah. Sex symbols. Of many decades standing. In your case, John. Fewer decades in my case. Maybe a few more to come.

39:19Jon Sopel:Weren't you at the 1924 Olympics? I was building up to that.

39:23Lewis Goodall:You were probably covering the luge. Appuie moi le luge. That was his joke. That was his opening joke.

39:31Jon Sopel:Going on tour. You were doing the louche. Yes, quite. Go on. Yeah, so I don't believe that the Epstein files is part of this. I think that there are times... I mean, Trump has tried to distract people away from the Epstein files and every single time has only made things worse. When he's told people there's no need to release the files, that Congress shouldn't pass the law, try to pressure them. Every step of the way, Trump has drawn attention to the Epstein files. So the idea that you would launch a war with Iran and Israel, I don't buy it. I just don't think that it's... You know, the Epstein files will come back.

40:10Jon Sopel:God, are you going to entertain it?

40:11Lewis Goodall:No, um... No, I don't think it was about the Epstein files. I think he does other things to distract from the Epstein files. But as you say, John, I don't quite... Frankly, you know, the Epstein files, they've sort of come and gone as far as Trump is concerned. You know, he has been able, despite the fact, despite the fact that, you know, there are potentially questions to answer for him, despite the fact there are accusations made, particularly by some Democratic congressmen and women who have seen the unredacted files that they claim that Donald Trump is in them and are in files that have been redacted with his name on and so on.

40:48Lewis Goodall:Despite all of that fact, the truth is, is the political pressure from his own side just hasn't been there on him. He's managed quite successfully. The Republicans in Congress have managed quite successfully to make it about other people. Frankly, you know, the reaction, I think, to the Epstein file shows in America, shows the extent to which Britain remains a healthier democracy with a healthier political system and a healthier judicial system, because we have seen action take place, albeit you could argue far too late and whatever. But there has been a response in Britain and there has been huge soul searching within British politics about figures within British politics, whether it's Andrew Mandelson or whoever, connected with the Epstein files, even if it is peripherally.

41:29Lewis Goodall:I mean, for God's sake, it's almost brought down Keir Starmer, a man who has no real connection to them whatsoever, other than the fact he appointed a guy who is mentioned in the files. I think what it shows more than anything else, I don't think I don't think Trump needs to distract from them because I don't think they've really touched him beyond the initial cost, perhaps when he was prevaricating over their release.

41:49Jon Sopel:OK, we've got a question from Rory on the YouTube live chat. He says in 1924, we've got a theme going here. In 1924, Lenin died. Given Putin's advancing years, what would happen if he were to die suddenly slash relatively soon?

42:06Lewis Goodall:I mean, this is such an interesting question. I mean, the truth is, is that obviously Russia has only had since since the end of the Cold War, since since the Soviet Union truly collapsed in 1991. It's only had two leaders. It's had Boris Johnson and Vladimir Putin. Oh, yeah, please have him. Have him. Have him. And Vladimir Putin. You know, Putin has been in office now since 2000, on and off, President Prime Minister, you could say Medvedev. But I mean, you know, he was still Putin's puppet. So, you know, it's had two slash three leaders, depending on how you count it. And so therefore, you know, everyone in terms of the political system in Russia, it's Vladimir Putin's world, and they're just living in it.

42:44Lewis Goodall:And I think what is clear is obviously we saw what happened with Prigozhin and the sort of aborted kind of coup there. But my understanding is reading people who know the Kremlin, do Kremlinology and know Russia far better than I do, say that Putin in terms of his regime is that it will be someone who mirrors Putin and someone who, if not chosen by Putin, but someone who by definition is a Putinist because they have survived within that regime for as long as they have. And if we're thinking in the West, if we're sat here thinking, God, if only Putin were to die and then perhaps we could get a business, a politician with whom we could we could do business.

43:20Lewis Goodall:Putin has created a massive kleptocratic, plutocratic war machine, right, that is all centred, A, on this war continuing for as long as possible. You've got all of this, not only has half of the Russian economy been turned over to arms production, but you've got these, you know, thousands and thousands, hundreds of thousands of young Russian men being paid more money than they could ever get within Russia. Huge parts of the Russian economy now dedicated to and based on remittances, basically, from the war. Putin could drop down dead tomorrow. And all of those structural factors, a sort of war economy, a total war economy would still exist.

43:58Lewis Goodall:And whoever replaced him, it would not be easy for that person, even if they wanted to, to stop it quickly or to extricate themselves from it. So, so much has Russian society been geared around this sort of new wartime, as I say, plutocratic.

44:11Jon Sopel:I think there are certain similarities, actually, with Iran, where, you know, America and Israel managed to decapitate the leadership of Iran. But what you know, failing to appreciate how many layers of people underneath that or of like mind who've been groomed accordingly to carry on the ideals of the revolution. And I think so it is in Putin's Russia, where, as you say, Lewis, if you've made it this far and haven't fallen out of an eighth floor window or accidentally slipped on a bar of soap in the shower and broken your neck, then frankly, there's a fair chance you're going to be fully signed up to Putin and have, you know, your hands dipped in the blood sufficiently that you want to carry on that legacy.

44:51Jon Sopel:So I'm not sure that any real change comes as a result of him going. Now, Michael Truff on the Sussex coast has been in touch. How bad do you think the May local elections need to go for Labour to make for Labour to make Keir Starmer's position as PM untenable? And if he is to leave, who do each of you think is most likely to be the next prime minister?

45:17Lewis Goodall:um i think i think one of the things for starman now is that the expectation is so baked in of how bad that they're going to be that it almost feels it's almost hard to conceive of how bad they would have to be for it to be sufficiently bad for starman to go yeah and i think that you know this iran stuff as well i mean this who knows it could still be going on who knows what situation will be in by then. Global instability helps Starmer. It helps Starmer enormously, partly because whoever would be Prime Minister is sort of locked in to some extent. It would seem an act of both pettiness, self-indulgence, but perhaps profound irresponsibility for the Labour Party to choose a moment of huge global instability to replace the British Prime Minister, because obviously it wouldn't be a quick process either.

46:04Lewis Goodall:It's not like the old days when, for example, MPs used to just decide this stuff. Harold Wilson decides that he's going in 1976 and within a week or so, Jim Callaghan is in. It's not like that. You're going to have to have, assuming that it's contested, you have a full Labour Party leadership contest. It's got to go out to, you know, you've got to get the MPs nominating. Then you've got to get all of the members voting. It's going to take weeks and weeks. And that sort of stasis helps actually lock, structurally lock in an incumbent Labour prime minister for whom it is already quite difficult to get rid of them.

46:33Lewis Goodall:So I think if there is ongoing instability of the like that we've seen the last couple of weeks or the last week or so, And in a way that the May elections become less important or seem less important. And Starmer, however unpopular he is, it helps him sort of lock himself in.

46:48Jon Sopel:So, Michael, I think what's so interesting about your question is that the second part of it is who do each of you think is the likely successor is what makes me think the first part isn't going to happen. That I think that, you know, I think it's still underpriced. I'm not saying it will happen, but it's underpriced the possibility of Keir Starmer leading Labour into the next election.

47:08Lewis Goodall:I think that's true.

47:08Jon Sopel:I think it's still very, very possible. And so, you know, OK, so I sort of saw your question and I thought, OK, West Streeting. Well, no, West Streeting, you know, does he command enough of the left and he's possibly going to lose his seat at the next election? Has he gone too far, too fast, too quickly and has upset a lot of people along the way with his apparent ambition? And then you think, well, what about Angela Rayner? Well, yeah, but has she got over our problems with the HMRC? and also you know a moderate wing of the Labour Party going to vote for her so maybe it's not her and well you know what about and so it goes on that you think well no they can't well it can't be them and Shabana Mahmood no the left of the party is not going to get behind her and so every time I keep dismissing somebody who is a potential leader I then come back to the fact that yeah you know what I think Starmer will still be the leader and also I mean it reminds me quite a lot of the

48:01Lewis Goodall:to mention him again, the Harold Wilson period in the late 60s. I mean, Wilson, we think of him now as having won four elections out of five, but there was a period, particularly after devaluation, in which he was profoundly unpopular and he lost the 1970 election, but there was all this speculation constantly about whether he was going to be challenged. It was easier to challenge a Labour leader then because it was just the MPs deciding it. And yet he survived. One of the reasons he survived is ever the Labour Party is deeply factional and each faction is always terrified about the other faction winning and therefore that they will be vanquished.

48:35Lewis Goodall:And someone like Wilson was very, very good at sort of playing those factions off against each other. And right now, right now, if you're not on the soft left or left of the Labour Party, you're worried because you know that if there's a leadership election now, it's almost certainly Angela Rayner's or Ed Miliband's or someone from the soft left for the taking. There is no way that West Streeting or Shabana McMoon, particularly in the wake of the Green victory in Gorton, and all of the conversation will no longer be, as it might have been six months ago, who's the best person to beat Nigel Farage?

49:05Lewis Goodall:The actual question, the SA question is going to be, who can beat Zach Polanski? And that gives you a very different answer to the SA question than if it had been something else. So I think that all contributes to this sense of clinging to Nurse, Keir Starmer, for fear of something worse.

49:20Jon Sopel:OK, we're going to come to this final question from Carl Waite. I want to say thank you, Carl, for the question, um but it's slightly problematic i'm going to read it love the show do you ever fall out with each other or have a disagreement or what you should talk about on the podcast lewis i have nothing to say i want to say that we love each other very dearly what there is never a crossword oh shut up we agree the whole time with each other and just support each other as fully as we can as true and dear friends this really is no dick energy but it would be a bloody lie no of course we um yeah we have you noticed there aren't any

50:10Lewis Goodall:live shows going on at the moment uh we all talk to our therapists about some of these issues

50:40Jon Sopel:orderlymeds.com earlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details.

50:55Lewis Goodall:The News Agents. Well, that was fun. That was great. I can't wait to see what jumper I wear next time. Yeah, it seems... Noel Edmonds style. Did he wear jumpers? Yes, he did. Yes, of course he did.

51:06Jon Sopel:I mean, if you want a Valdunican, if that's the sort of Valdunican chic that you're looking for.

51:12Lewis Goodall:I wasn't thinking of basing my career on Noel, but you know what? I think we could do worse. Really? Oh, yeah. Not much worse. We'll see you on Monday. Bye-bye. And remember to tune in to my Sunday show on LBC. Oh, yeah, of course, of course. And if you're very lucky, John might be listening, because if for once he might not be on one of the alternative offerings on Sunday. Maybe. We'll see. Bye-bye. See you then. Bye-bye.

51:32Jon Sopel:This has been a Global Player original production.