Special Episode: Trump kills Iran's leader - what happens next?

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1:40May God bless you all. That is Donald Trump in white USA baseball cap from Mar-a-Lago with a hugely consequential statement for the Iranian people and for the future of the Middle East. But what is Donald Trump guaranteeing? America has killed Iran's supreme leader. But what happens now? Is this Trump's biggest gamble yet? Is he playing with the whole world? Welcome to the News Agents special episode.

2:16The News Agents. It's John. It's Emily. It's Lewis. And we now know that the decapitation strategy employed by the Israelis and the Americans has worked. The Ayatollah has gone. A number of senior commanders from the Iranian Revolutionary Guard have been taken out. The defence minister, the secretary of the defence council, all sorts have gone. And from that point of view, you can see that presumably Israeli penetration of the Iranian state was pretty well complete. and the first part of the mission has been achieved. But it is still unclear to me what the mission is beyond that. And Donald Trump saying this could go on for a long time, but others in the US administration saying, no, no, no, it's only going to be short.

3:09It is, I think, hard to overstate just how both politically, but also symbolically, how many his death is. He has dominated Iran. He's been Iran's supreme leader from 1989 until his death this weekend. The highest authority in the Islamic Republic, the most important and powerful political figure in Iranian politics for those three decades. He's only one of two supreme leaders that Iran has had since the revolution in 1979. He controlled the armed forces, the intelligence services, the judiciary. he led the ongoing campaign against Israel, against its Western allies, US, the UK and he controlled all of the mechanisms of the state which we have seen be involved in the crushing of the dissent that we've had in Iran over the course of this year and at the end of last year.

3:59It is a huge moment symbolically for sure, it's an astonishing bit of an astonishing once again military exercise. There is, of course, the question, though, that basically Iran is not quite like or as a simpler state as Venezuela's Maduro, as Venezuela and Maduro. And the Iranian regime is a multi-headed hydra and someone else. They've been preparing for his death for many years. He was 86. And so presumably we will see a new Ayatollah appointed. Yeah, I think that's spot on. I don't think you can overestimate quite what a dominant figure he was inside Iran and over much of the Middle East. And I think one of the questions that we're facing today is, does the killing of Khomeini change everything or nothing?

4:45Because he had prepared his succession down to four successive members, we understand. I was speaking to the Israeli government spokespeople this morning and I said, can you confirm whether the son is dead? We haven't got confirmation on that. So the chief of staff is yes. But how many actual members of the family, how many members of the succession are dead? They couldn't tell me. They talked about the 40 members. You've named some of them 40 members of the IRGC that they believe have been decapitated. But actually, at this point, everything stands or falls on what the army, the IRGC, does now, because they are the ones with the arms.

5:29And I think that this is both potentially an extraordinary turning point. I mean, you wouldn't be wrong if you said this could be one of the formative moments of Middle Eastern foreign policy, I think, for three, four decades. It could be one of the moments of the 21st century. I agree. But you could also be right in saying everything may just carry on. I've been speaking to some pretty high profile Iranians this morning and some, to your point, Lewis, say, look, he was an 86 year old, frail, ill old man who's now being hailed as a martyr. Iranian state television broke the news saying he has sipped from the sweet cup of martyrdom.

6:10So don't get too excited. That's their point. Don't get too excited too quickly. Yes, it might have taken him out. But what now? I think it is consequential in a serious way, because I think that it is a serious attempt at regime change. And we can talk about the fact that, you know, let's face it, Donald Trump got elected in 2016 saying the forever wars must end. We're sick of regime change. We're sick of nation building. We don't want to be any part of this. We're America first and we're concentrating on what is happening in America. And that's what propelled him to the presidency. the failure of the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

6:45And here we are back potentially with history repeating itself, where Donald Trump is urging the Iranian people to rise up. Well, if you're urging the Iranian people to rise up and you're saying we're there with you, are American troops going to be on the ground? I would have thought almost certainly no. So what happens now? And as you say, Emily, it is perfectly possible that someone else comes in and replaces Khamenei and the people that have got... It's not like there is an organised, well-drilled opposition in Iran. They have not tolerated any dissent. And we've seen the brutality with which protest has been put down by Khamenei.

7:25I kind of heard the Iranian ambassador to the UN last night saying a couple of hundred people have been killed. How dare the Americans? What? You killed tens of thousands of protesters, Iranians in your own country, without any compunction about human life. So spare us the crocodile tears on that one. But it's just whether Iran descends into some kind of civil war now with different factions trying to fight for power. We don't know. I mean, it may all have the most glorious, happy ending. And Donald Trump gets a Nobel Peace Prize and there's a wonderful transformation to liberal democracy in this vast country.

8:01I frankly find that very hard to see right now and I find it hard to see what role America is going to play beyond a few days of ritual bombing I thought Trump's statement was astounding and maybe it will be vindicated by history sure it might be that this is just one of those pivotal moments of the 21st century as he was saying but either way it is amazing not only I think for any American president let alone this American president he's not just saying as we saw last year when the Americans attacked Iran, which was a relatively narrowly defined mission to try and suppress or slow down or destroy Iranian nuclear capability.

8:43I mean, obviously, there was a lot of discussion afterwards about how effective that was, but at least it was quite clear. This is so much bigger and broader. And you've got an American president actively encouraging, calling upon and saying that this is a generational opportunity that probably won't come again in his assessment for generations to rise up against the Iranian government. And we know, I mean, and there is a real asymmetry there. We're talking about one of the most well-armed, entrenched regimes we might see anywhere in the world. And an American president imploring those Iranians to take them on.

9:15I was speaking to the Israeli government this morning and I said, sorry, can you just tell me exactly the question? What happens now? He said, look, there are three goals, right? This is Israel talking. Three goals. Nuclear program destroyed. We'll come back to that. ballistic missile capability destroyed and three to help the people of Iran get rid of their regime. Interesting that that was three. And I said, what does that mean? How does that look? And there's this pause. And he said, well, you know, I wish for is for the people of Iran to take the opportunity. And I said, what is take the opportunity?

9:47You're going to arm them? He said, no, we're opening the door for them to do what they want. You know, you talk to me about the besieged forces command center being destroyed. This is the sort of paramilitaries, the people who sort of come one level below the Revolutionary Guard. So they're doing bits and pieces in terms of what they are trying to destroy. But there isn't a plan and they aren't armed. And as you say, in January, in February, we were seeing thousands and thousands of protesters murdered in cold blood. So really, are you just saying, oh, it's fine, go back out now? because all the guards are still armed and nothing's actually changed.

10:27So are you herding people towards their death or democracy? I don't know yet. Look at history and look at American history. I've talked about the second Gulf War and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Go back to the first Gulf War after Iraq had invaded Kuwait, taken over all their oil fields and the Americans come in, desert storm and kick them out. But George H.W. Bush doesn't go all the way to remove Saddam Hussein. But he encourages the Kurds to rise up against Saddam Hussein. And so the Kurds rise up. They get absolutely zero support from the Americans and are slaughtered by Saddam Hussein's troops.

11:03So the history of America, when they say we urge you to rise up against your oppressive rulers, we've opened the door to you. Frankly, it's not a great one. And you can look back at history and see where America has betrayed those who have risen up. And maybe Donald Trump is in this for the long run, as he says. But would you trust him to be in there for the long run? Also, I mean, you talk about the long run. Let's just go back to Donald Trump speaking more than a decade ago. Just have a listen to his thoughts on foreign policy here. Our president will start a war with Iran because he has absolutely no ability to negotiate.

11:40He's weak and he's ineffective. So the only way he figures that he's going to get reelected, and as sure as you're sitting there is to start a war with Iran. That was 2011. Donald Trump is talking about Obama. Now, fast forward to 2016 when Donald Trump is elected, because the thing you have to understand is for all this talk that Donald Trump is making about the threat of Iran's nuclear capabilities, when he won the election, there was a deal in place. It was called the JOCPA. It was a framework that America had done with Iran. Iranians loved it because it allowed oversight to what was going on in terms of any nuclear proliferation.

12:26It allowed Americans to understand what was going on and it allowed Iran to open up. And I remember it because I went to Iran that year. I went to Iran because it started to be a place that was basically doing business with the rest of the world. There were direct flights from here. There were businesses coming in. There was a deal in place that the Iranian people themselves loved. What happens? Donald Trump gets in and he tears the whole thing up. So don't pretend that you think the Iranians have never come to the table. Don't pretend that you think there hasn't been a deal. If you talk to John Kerry, if you talk to the then Secretary of State, he'll say the most significant moment of that whole year was the tearing up of the Iran deal.

13:08Because at that point, all bets were off. Yeah, I mean, the JCPOA was only in place for 10 years and there was no deal about what would happen afterwards when it ran out. But there was a deal. There was a deal for 10 years, sure that they wouldn't carry on their nuclear enrichment. Look, none of it has been perfect. And as I say, it may all end in the happiest of happy endings with the Iranians having, you know, skipping to polling stations where no one's armed. and it's the free and peaceful transfer of power and they all live happily ever after and the Middle East is one big happy place again, which it's never been.

13:43I just don't see it. I just don't see the circumstances in which this unfolds. And there's American public opinion as well, which is going to be, sorry. And Lewis, I know you had on a guest this morning from Republicans Abroad on your show talking about, I feel uncomfortable about this. It's very striking, yeah. Someone who's normally in lockstep with the president, someone from Republicans Abroad, articulating that MAGA concern on which the president always runs. And I think what we've seen repeatedly, just think about the US domestic implications for a moment, we see repeatedly that Trump has such amazing and extraordinary latitude with his base about all sorts of other things.

14:19I mean, I think when we met Hassan on a show not so long ago, he made these points, which I think is spot on. You know, even things with tariffs. You know, Trump can sort of turn around one day and go, tariffs are fantastic. He could turn around the next day and say they're terrible. And a lot of those issues, a lot of the base will just go with him, take their signal and cues from him. In a way, the American kind of isolationist turn and certainly the revulsion with the kind of all the neocon interventions during the Bush period predates Trump. It was something on which Trump capitalized and saw and ran.

14:47And so this is potentially the one thing on which he might not be able to take the base with him. Just listen to Jennifer Ewing, who's from Republicans Abroad. The president used to be against getting involved in conflicts like this. What's changed? Yeah, that's a great question. And this is going to be a problem for him. There's no doubt about that 100%. You ask anybody under the age of 55, they are against any sort of foreign intervention, especially if you cannot specifically explain why it's in America's interest. So you're going to see this play out even within the Republican Party. You know, the America first side of things versus, say, the old school kind of country club neocon Republicans.

15:27Now, for those younger people, of course, they won't remember 1979 or the Iran hostage crisis and all of that. It's beyond living memory for a lot of voters now. Well, that's very true. But also what President Trump were on an America First agenda, we certainly have enough problems at home, you know, whether it was the border, the economy, health care, all sorts of issues. So people are like, why are we continuing to get involved in other people's problems if it's not existential to us? Now, there are also a lot of people that think that the president got quite lucky in 2021, you know, when he assassinated Soleimani and World War Three did not start then.

16:04Obviously, with the 12 day war in June, there were very little repercussions after that. So it's almost as if the American public has become quite spoiled in thinking these things can be very surgical and very easy and there will be no blowback. However, in the last 36 hours, you know, we've already seen, you know, the Dubai airport get struck and other things. So I think what's going to happen is, depending on how messy this gets, it will really it could really hurt the president. And because, of course, the thing is, it's not just about Iran. This is now New York Times has totted it up. the eighth military intervention that Trump has made in the second term, which is only what, 13 months old, 14 months old.

16:49And so, you know, this is not just a kind of isolated one off thing. It is part of a broader pattern. And I think certainly for the rest of the world anyway, what makes it so unsettling is that it is so unclear in each and every episode of it what the through line is. I mean, it was clearer, doesn't make it right, but it was clearer in the kind of bush years and so on. And that type of intervention, often what it was about, whether it was about terrorism, it was clearer what the articulation of it was. In this case, it's much more, it seems to me, random. It's much less clear. It's much more based on the kind of proclivities and instincts of Trump at that particular moment.

17:28I mean, look at Venezuela, right? We've seen a similar sort of thing play out there. They replaced Maduro. Basically, someone else from the regime has to come along and replaced him. Not entirely clear what the kind of end game is or any of it. So I think internationally speaking, you can see why allies are dazzled by the entire thing. I mean, I think you have to take a clue from those around Trump, like Pete Hegseth, who comes into office and decides unilaterally to call the Department of Defense the Department of War. They find war exciting, frankly. And I know that's not a very elegant or sophisticated appraisal of what's just gone on now.

18:03But I don't think it's far wrong. They like military warfare. They like weaponry. They like sort of seeing things that blow up and go bang. It's the ultimate flooding of the zone. I mean, it's literally about how you enact the greatest power in the world so that no one is under any illusions. Look at me. I can blow things up. I can remove people. Not Putin. Not actually stopping a war that would have been highly commended and really invaluable to the rest of the world. No, I'm not going to stop him. But I'm going to remove anyone who's kind of controlling US oil. I'm going to remove anyone who actually is threatening my neighbours because I've decided that.

18:40He's not done it for the people of Iran. Let's just get that in our heads. He has not done this to help the people of Iran. He's done this because he likes the idea of war when he thinks it will profit America ultimately. I think there is a geopolitical aspect of this that is interesting where there might be consequences. Look, as I say, it's so uncertain what happens. But if you have essentially America taking control of Iranian oil exports because the country falls and it becomes we get a new tough guy in charge of Iran who's much more sympathetic to America. Something like 11 percent of China's oil comes from Iran.

19:19A huge deal amount goes to Russia. The Shaheed drones that Russia has been using against the Ukrainians are made in Iran. He's not doing this to help Ukrainians. I just don't believe that. No, but that could be a side consequence of it. I think, look, I think he does dream that he's going to be loved by the Iranian people because he's set them free. I agree with you. Or by the Qatari people, quite frankly, who've just given him a massive jet. Yeah. So look, Donald Trump is very transactional. He likes all those things as well. But to narrow it down to just Trump has got a toy set that he can play with, which is his military, I think reduces it too much when there are really big time, big world consequences from this.

20:00The second time American presidents often are more interventionists, right? Because their domestic power starts to dwindle and the area with which he can operate with most unadulterated power is, I think, right, is military. And I think these things are cumulative, right? I think there is another parallel, in a sense, with the kind of neocon period, George W. Bush, Tony Blair, all the interventionism then. That was a cumulative process as well. Because the early ones, whether it was in Sierra Leone or what happened to the Balkans and so on, were perceived to be a success. And in Trump's mind...

20:29Yeah, you're emboldened. Not least because his attention span is pretty limited and he moves on to the next thing and he just declares it a success and so on. So it seems to me that this is just the biggest of what has been a trend or the sort of latest example, the biggest example of what is a clear trend in his mind, which is the unadulterated use of American power for his own prestige, but also in his own mind for his countries. Yeah. I mean, we're going to talk about the ramifications for the rest of the world and for us and for international law in a moment. But I mean, just to end this with a phrase that we do overuse on this show, two things can be true at once.

21:01There may very well be great consequences as a result of this. It may be that the death of the Ayatollah heralds the most extraordinary new development of democracy in Iran. And boy, we're all praying for that, obviously. But I don't think to look for, as Lewis would say, an arc of purpose in Trump is a very good use of your time. I think one thing we can definitely say is that, you know, Iran, we were speaking not so long ago about Iran, you know, being a dominant player, that it had been become regionally dominant and so on. One of the consequences of October the 7th, which was partly about, of course, partly backed by Iran.

21:37And one of the consequences of that has actually been, ironically enough, a complete weakening of all of the forces which had contributed to that moment, whether it is Hezbollah, whether it's Hamas, whether it's Iran. And that axis, which had dominated the politics, has been substantially weak and partly at Trump's hand. And Trump is certainly right about one thing, right, which is the Ayatollah was no friend of ours. We shouldn't be mourning the guy. He was a bloody murderous figure of an appalling regime. But as we've seen before, those people have fallen before and the consequences have been either as bad or worse.

22:09We'll be back in just a moment on where this leaves international law.

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23:22The News Agents The United Kingdom played no role in these strikes. But we have long been clear. The regime in Iran is utterly abhorrent. They have murdered thousands of their own people. brutally crushed dissent and sought to destabilise the region. Even in the United Kingdom, the Iranian regime poses a direct threat to dissidents and to the Jewish community. Over the last year alone, they have backed more than 20 potentially lethal attacks on UK soil. So it is clear they must never be allowed to develop a nuclear weapon. That remains the primary aim of the United Kingdom and our allies, including the US.

24:24So that is Keir Starmer from Downing Street yesterday. So Britain taking no part in the strikes. But does it think the strikes that America and Israel have carried out are lawful, given that there has been no United Nations resolution supporting this? and Britain is involved in a defensive capacity insofar as it is trying to protect allies and British interests in the Gulf by defensive measures. So the RAF are flying, they are trying to intercept drones and Iranian missiles that may be targeting British interests. You could hear in terms of just how delicate the Prime Minister's words were. There's this line that they've been having to repeatedly try to tread, which is at once being sufficiently enthusiastic as not to irritate the Trump administration, whilst clearly not wanting to endorse actually what has taken place, which is a very similar sort of situation that we saw with Venezuela.

25:28But it does get to the point where, frankly, the British government, which is being less clear about its position than equivalents, for example, the Canadian government, Australian government, others, it does start to get to the point where a very simple question, a very simple question, which is, do we support this thing or not, is not answered. I put that question to John Healy, the Defence Secretary on my RBC Sunday show this morning. Listen to this. We weren't part of the strikes. We didn't participate in the strikes. It's for the US to explain the legal basis for their actions. Our full focus is on the defensive actions that we are taking and can take.