Special Report: How the Makerfield by-election could change everything

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0:32This is a global production.

0:35Lewis:In 24 hours time in Makerfield, potentially the entire fate of the rest of the parliament will be determined. You've got Burnham, he's got the wind in his sails at the moment, and so he's not terribly interested in being told by Keir Starmer, just be patient. Feels to me like you've got a police van outside with a loud hailer saying, come out with your hands up, and you've got Keir Starmer inside number 10 saying, you're going to have to come and get me. Westminster consensus kind of move to say Burnham's got this in the bag. I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team and I think they're right not to be confident.

1:08Lewis:Would you bring Burnham back into your cabinet? Oh Andy's a great asset and yes I want him to have a big role in government. Are you going to call him at the weekend and invite him back into your cabinet? Well I'm sure I'll talk to Andy after the weekend of course I will I've spoken to him many times in recent weeks. And when I came into politics in 2015, it was Andy Burnham's team that I joined, and we worked very well together. He's a huge asset. He's been a fantastic mayor in Manchester. And if he comes back into Parliament, I hope he wins in the by-election. That's the prime minister speaking to Sky News.

1:44Lewis:And you can hear there a political leader in the most uncomfortable place for a political leader to be. He knows that his fate is no longer his own. It isn't being decided in Evian where he is at the G7 summit, and it won't be decided in Westminster. Instead, everything hinges on what happens here in the next 24 hours. Here being Makerfield in the North West, and whether Andy Burnham will be returning to Parliament and returning to challenge his leadership. Welcome to the News Agents.

2:24The News Agents.

2:25Lewis:It's John. It's Lewis. And obviously on the night of a big international football match, Lewis wanted to come to be beside a football pitch as he's won't big time. And we are at Ashton Town Football Club. And a bit later in the podcast, Emily is going to be speaking to a group of voters in some focus group that she attended to gather what it is that is making this such a keenly fought battle. election since it is a football day john's thoughts on the on the pitch here ashton the pitch looks absolutely bloody fantastic apparently andy burnham's played here a few times yeah you know the pitch looks good ready for a new season how what's your prediction for tonight uh prediction for tonight i have no idea but my prediction i'm more interested in the prediction for tomorrow which is of course in 24 hours time in makerfield here basically the potentially the entire fate of the rest of the parliament will be determined we've said many times over the last four weeks or so that there has not been a more important by-election in our modern political history.

3:27Lewis:This next 24 hours is probably the pivotal moment of this parliament, because if Andy Burnham pulls off, which should be something that should be on paper almost impossible right now, which is a win in a seat where even in 2024, Labour only got a 5 ,000 or so majority, This is very high up on the reform target list. I think it's in their top 20 or so of their targets. It only requires a swing of 5, 6, 7 % or so. if in circumstances where Andy Burnham is able to overcome the fact that the Labour Party is in the doldrums and still win in this most inauspicious and difficult terrain, then he will have proof of concept to the parliamentary Labour Party to go to them and say, look, I am your saviour and give him what he hopes and thinks the momentum he needs to seize the crown from Kirsten.

4:25Lewis:Yeah, that is so interesting because it's clear that in number 10, they're trying to play for time. They're trying to say, look, the most important thing after this by-election, Andy, if you win, is that we win the Manchester mayoralty, which you will have to resign. So, Andy, we want you to focus on that. And maybe then, Andy, there'll be a cabinet job for you and you can come in and we'll embrace you. And you don't want to rush these things because you're not ready to be prime minister. They're calling it a steeplechase strategy. Exactly. Keep jumping those fences, Andy. What it feels to me like is you've got a police van outside with a loud hailer saying, come out with your hands up.

5:00Lewis:And you've got Keir Starmer inside number 10 saying, you're going to have to come and get me. And that seems to be the Starmer strategy right now. No, I'm not going anywhere. No, I've got a campaign team that's up and ready. I've got a bank account set up. We've got a campaign manager. I ain't going anywhere. And he's going to try and make things as difficult as he can. against that you've got Burnham who as you say Lewis he's got momentum he's got the wind in his sails at the moment and presumably this is the moment and so he's not terribly interested in being told by Keir Starmer just be patient we can work this out over the long term and that is the dynamic and into which of course you've got West Streeting saying you know I'm prepared I'm prepared to give the Prime Minister some breathing space you've got the weekend to think about it but after that you've got to announce the time of your departure yes we've basically had it over the last 24 hours we've had the three it seems to me really important or players in what is to come over the course of the next week or three of the most important players anyway Burnham has been silenced he's basically not been doing any interviews since he didn't appear to remember what the fiscal rules were with the BBC partly I think was a bit of a silly question but but but there we go you know I think his team decided that they wanted to pull back after that so we've really heard very little from him.

6:14Lewis:He's been focusing on the by-election here and speaking to voters. That's what his team has been briefing. Starmer, the prime minister, very interesting, I think, that interview at the G7 conference because he did move a little bit. On the one hand, his team have been briefing relentlessly, and he echoed that in what he said to Beth Rugby and other broadcasters, that he, come what may, will fight any leadership contest. Remember that as the incumbent leader of the Labour Party, if there is a contest trigger under the party rules, he goes on the ballot to members automatically. He doesn't have to get endorsements from his MPs in the Parliamentary Labour Party.

6:51Lewis:They have been briefing that ferociously. Prime Minister, it is said, feels that he has a sense of duty to the country that he must undertake and he wants to continue the mandate. We can talk about whether that's true or not, but that's apparently how he feels. Yet in that same interview, he did also move a little bit on the question of whether he will fight the next election. So previously when he's been asked, will you fight the next election or not? He has said yes, unreservedly, without qualification. Yes. In that interview, he said he wants to. That was him saying to Burnham's team that you don't have all of the cards.

7:24Lewis:This might have to be a negotiated settlement in order to ensure that this doesn't end up in a sort of fit of bloodlust within the Labour Party and toxin and poison then fuses within the Labour Party. You course of the next couple of months. And then on the other hand as well, you have Wes Streeting also playing his own particular game, as you say, John, saying that if the Prime Minister doesn't come to his senses this time next week, then come what may, he will trigger a contest. He, you know, presumably still trying to magnify and amplify his own power and his own sense of being in this as best he can.

7:58Lewis:I think what's so interesting about this by-election is, look, you frame it in its historical context. And, you know, I can't think of any by-election in my lifetime where so much has been riding on it because you know effectively you could be deciding who the next prime minister of the united kingdom is and we've never had a by-election of that importance before and so you have got the most massive interest in the candidates in this by - election and what they're doing in public is in inverse proportion to the amount of interest there is you've hardly seen andy burnham doing interviews as you have said he's kept his immediate appearances is to the bare minimum.

8:36Lewis:Rob Kenyon, the reform candidate who is the main challenger, has been on question time, but that didn't go so well for him. And it's not entirely surprising they've limited his media. No, not at all. But what you've got is that you've got both camps trying to protect their candidates because with Andy Burnham, he's not being asked about what you're going to do for Makerfield. He's going to he's being asked about what you're going to do for the country and when you become prime minister and if you become prime minister and how you're going to challenge it. And you've got Kenyon, who, let's be honest about it, isn't the sharpest tool in the box and has said some pretty unsavory things in his past and doesn't want to be questioned.

9:14Lewis:So you've got both candidates being shielded to some extent. And it's interesting talking to people here in Makerfield. We went to the Labour Club where they were kind of organising mass canvassing today. One, I was struck by the fact that there isn't that much confidence around. and two, how many people are coming in from all over the country to be part of this. This is a group of people who'd come down from Cumbria and this was their third or fourth visit to Makerfield. And the closer it is to the election day, the real it gets, doesn't it? So people really start to focus their minds. Do you think it'll be a big turn-up?

9:47Lewis:There's normally by-elections. I mean, there hasn't been a by-election like this. I think this will be a big turn-up. This has been well-canvassed and people are interested. That's what it feels like. I think it's pretty tight as well. prominence in this by-election which obviously generates more interest yeah and that's why we're positive and optimistic and we shouldn't be overconfident of course we shouldn't be we can't take uh people's opinions and voters for granted we're not going to do that but hopefully andy will win and deliver real change that's what we need we've just got to respect the people and it's the people of makerfield that will make the difference yeah are you more confident about Andy Burnham winning or England winning tonight?

10:26Lewis:Both results will be tied but they're both wins. I agree, I agree. You know, we are quietly confident but we're not taking anything for granted, just like England. Come on Andy. Thank you. It's interesting talking to Labour people but also people just this morning over the last 24 hours, you know, senior in Burnham's campaign. They're feeling, and look, preface this by saying there's always a bit of expectations management with this stuff when they're talking to journalists. But I don't think they're completely flangling me when they're trying to get across that they're far less confident than the received wisdom has become.

11:06Lewis:It feels like over the last five days, week or so, the kind of Westminster consensus herd has kind of moved to say Burnham's got this in the bag. Yeah. I don't get that sense of confidence whatsoever from Burnham's team. and I think they're right not to be confident. I think we're getting a bit, or we have been a bit, and the lobby have been a bit sort of overawed by two things. One is we see these constituency polls which show that Burnham is ahead. Constituency polling is very difficult to do. It's often on small samples. The margin of error is massive. Even then, it doesn't show Burnham so far ahead as to be outside often that margin of error.

11:42Lewis:And I also think that Burnham's own personal star power, which is significant, And as you say, John, let's be clear, if it were anybody else in this campaign, any other Labour person, we wouldn't even be here because it would be a foregone conclusion. You know, reform would be winning it at a canter, however poor their own candidate is. And so I think those two things are coming together to to occlude from them and to make them forget just how tough terrain this seat is. You know, for Labour, Labour could win. If Labour, if we were a general election tomorrow, rather than a by-election, and Labour got a majority, just a bare majority, let's say 326 seats, 330 seats or so, Labour would still lose Maker Fiat on that sort of swing.

12:22Lewis:That's how tough this is, even as I said at the top, even in the landslide of 2024. Reform did really well. There's more of the Conservative vote that they can drill down into. It only requires a swing of 5, 6, 7 percent. They won in Roncorn last year, which was just down the road and with a way bigger swing, albeit with only a small majority, but with a way bigger swing. Let's look at the recent local election results. Reform won every single councillor in those elections in this part of the world just a few weeks ago. And so you put all of that together. And actually, on paper, the fact that Labour is even competitive, the fact that Burnham is even competitive, I think is actually pretty remarkable.

13:01Lewis:Yeah, I think that's absolutely spot on. I was talking to one of the Labour organisers this morning, and he was saying that in the Gorton and Denton by-election a few months ago, on the day of polling, Labour had a thousand people knocking on doors, you know, making sure that people were going out to vote. And he says this time it will be even bigger. I mean, the resource that is being thrown in... Someone told me that the Labour machine, which has, as you say, they've been invested entirely in this constituency for purposes of this thing. They have knocked on every door in this constituency six times.

13:36Lewis:Six times. It doesn't mean that everyone always answered, but they have knocked on every door in the constituency six times. And that's just the Labour part. In fact, one guy said, a bit of bad language, just as a warning. One guy was telling me, he was like, one fellow... That's not like you to give us a warning. I know, well, I've learned from the best. He basically, like, knocked on some guy's door and he turned to him and he was like, look, I've told you, I'm voting for you. Please just fuck off, because otherwise, if you vote and knock on my door once more, I won't be. and these poor people look i just as we were walking here i just saw this guy putting stuff in his rubbish bin and he wouldn't go on camera but we've recorded his voice about what he thought was going on this gentleman has just opened up his uh wheelie bin um and it's full of election leaflets ahead of the by-election are you fed up with it i am indeed that's 16 at the last count one this morning makes it up to 17.

14:26Lewis:and it's just been non-stop has it? every day and knocking on your door as well? knocking on my door as well yeah and you you obviously don't want to show your face because you you know you've got a job and you don't want to see it but this is crazy isn't it it's just over overwhelming it is i can't believe and they talk about saving the planet and the paper and the trees etc and i've got literally a tree in my bin i'm sure the people around here will be absolutely relieved when we bugger off out of it and the place comes back to being a place free of politicians free of canvassers and free of journalists like you and me because there are an awful lot of people who are descended on makerfield to be part of this we spoke to uh the guy who's the commercial manager of ashton town uh football club who's kind enough to let us uh film here mark cowley and he was telling us that actually you know this election would have been so different if it had just been an ordinary Labour candidate running.

15:21Lewis:So, Mark, have you had the whole media circus around here over the last four weeks? Yes, everybody. Everybody? Yes. We even hear LBC's in town. Yeah, LBC wanted to do a penalty shootout on the pitch, reform v Labour, but maybe a bridge too far. And they're in the worst pub in Makerfield, you tell us. Yeah, I can't name it, but yes. How do you think it's going to go on Thursday? I think maybe Labour may just win. Andy Burnham effect is a big thing around here that's not political bias for me it's just my my thoughts I think I think Libra may just win well let's let's let me ask the other question then what happens if it hadn't been Andy Burnham standing and it had just been some nobody or you know local council or whatever yeah well the recent council elections there was 26 wards in the area and reform 125 and the only one they didn't win was a local independent who basically builds his own little area uh like a little hero so labor was nowhere and i think it would probably would have been the same and you talk to loads and businesses and you know people here every week um what do they think of brand labor so leaving burn them out out of it what do they think of labor do you think they think what i think i'm a local businessman and i i think the economy is completely flat uh people aren't spending the pensions are sitting on the money or the young ones are trying to spend and it has that feeling i've discussed that today at work that we have that feeling that we're stumbling along and i as a businessman don't want to stumble along really for another two or three years mark can you explain to me the impact of of burnham because i mean look here you are ashton town football club um if andy burnham becomes the mp becomes the prime minister this is his local football club presumably that has an impact and people are thinking well this could be huge yeah of course it could and he has played here um and he says he's a supporter of ashton town he's played here many times he only lives up the road in goulburn uh and hopefully if he does become prime minister he will support his local football club because he's a big football supporter so yeah that's what everybody hopes and and do you think that has an effect on how people are to vote i don't think whatever effects on ashton town people won't think of ashton town i think people in ashton may just think that if it becomes prime minister then it may benefit ashton yes i think that would sway a few people's votes not mine particularly but i think it would fuse it would sway a few people yes and reform i mean do you think i mean in terms of how they're perceived because they are still relatively new why do you think so many people find them so appealing it's It's a protest vote.

17:57People are fed up with Tories and Labour, and it's just a protest vote. People feel as though they don't know where to go. They don't know who to complain to. They've not listened. Everything is London. No one's bothered about actually in Makefield. Suddenly we're the centre of the universe. No one's heard of us before. No one's heard of Wigan, no one's heard of Wigan, and all of a sudden, but people don't know who to complain to.

18:21Lewis:So although on one level, you'll be pleased when this is all over and people like us disappear and, you know, life goes back to normal it has had an effect in terms of you know making people aware not just about make a field and Ashton but also about the fact that people feel they're fed up with the two main parties they're fed up of not being listened to yeah definitely people are fed up as I just said people are fed up it's a process vote that's what reform is and Farhad he's tapping into it nicely and saying the right things and people want to listen stop the votes etc people want to hear things like that and it has that effect on the vote as it did in the local elections.

18:57Lewis:OK, Mark, great to talk to you. Thank you very much indeed. Thank you. Thanks, Mark. I think what Mark said there is a really interesting point. I think there's been a lot of, I think sometimes slightly patronising commentary from some of the Westminster press, basically saying that Makerfield, you know, local people always want local politicians. And actually, people are way smarter than, you know, what Mark was saying there is completely right. People, as they say in America, you know, they can smell pork, a bit of pork barrel politics, which might be coming their way, i.e. you know what, having the Prime Minister as your local MP, particularly by the way, this will still most certainly be a very marginal seat.

19:31Lewis:You know, we will have a Prime Minister with an unusually marginal seat who would have to be thinking about how do I retain my own seat in a general election, probably does mean that I think Makerfield would not be, I think, the old government investment project, the odd pot of funding, the odd perhaps new stand here at Ashton, you know, the Andy Burnham stand just to just like 60 foot high i think you know really get this football club going don't think that that's um well i think people are smart enough to be completely alive to that and you know it sort of actually made me think a little bit about makerfield itself just just listening to that how unbelievably crucial it's been right in terms of maybe the future of our politics that makerfield has been the seat that's been chosen because imagine if burnham had been allowed to stand in gorton how different this campaign would have been if he was campaigning to his left this entire time, he would have made a lot of different decisions, had to, in order to win that seat.

20:26Lewis:Whereas having to campaign in Makerfield with a very different sort of seat than it is, very different sort of constituency profile, different sort of voters, has meant he's had to tack to the right, a bit more socially conservative, a bit more in the reforms direction, given that those are his principal challenges. Basically, the choice of seats, which has been pretty contingent, really, could easily have been the other way around, has potentially been utterly instrumental for the future of the rest of this parliament. So we've just left Ashton Town Football Club and we thought that's a wrap and then we came across the reform bus and two people on it who are local councillors in Bolton and we wanted to speak to them about what is happening here in Makerfield.

21:05Lewis:Gentlemen just introduce yourselves. I might took a reform councillor for Bolton. Yeah and I'm Trevor Jones I'm the leader for reform in Bolton Council. Right. Just newly elected. Well, congratulations on being elected. And you're here with your bus. I'm the reformed bus driver, yeah. The reformed bus driver. I've been for the last four years. It's all glamour at the top of local government, isn't it? Yeah, the bus, it's a fantastic machine. It's promoted reform no end all over the country. And it's also promoted me. A lot of people know me because of the bus. In fact, most people put me first.

21:39They say, oh, it's the bus driver. They don't mention that I'm the leader of the council for reform and a councillor and the chairman of Bolton. They don't mention that stuff. They mentioned the bus driving bit.

21:47Lewis:Right. So what's going to happen tomorrow? It's going to be close. I think we can just pip it. I hope we do, because there's a lot of effort going in. A lot of effort when we form it here. You know, signage-wise, we've got a lot more signs up than anybody else. I just hope there's no damage done by other parties, I'll be honest. What do you mean by that? By restore? Well, yeah, we've got to win this. We need to win it, because the last thing we need is Andy Burnham getting back in politics at this level. because, you know, from a party's point of view, it would be easy getting rid of Starmer than him.

22:22He's better, isn't he? Well, you'd be afraid of Burnham? No, not afraid because I just think the whole set-up of him becoming Prime Minister, he's just total rubbish, isn't he, to be honest. What he's done in Greater Manchester. I live in Bolton, which comes under Greater Manchester. He's done absolutely nothing for us. He's been depressing. How do they call him the King of the North? I've no idea.

22:44Lewis:I just want one other thing I mean when we were just just just John was speaking to you in the bus and we were just here Car pulls up young ladies is in the car. She says We don't even speak to her. She just says Rob Kenyon is a sexist. He's a sexist So we've just met you just in your car. You were just going to Let's go to the shop. Yeah, and I heard you over over here in front of this reform bus with Rob Kenyon You just said sexist. Yeah, why'd you say that? Well, I've seen lots of videos and stuff of what he said about women and that he's sexist and he doesn't care. What do you say? They say they're not those things.

23:16Lewis:They just say they're saying common sense. There's proof that there is, though. The proof that they are. There's literal proof that they are. He literally said, he said, I'm sexist. He said it himself, didn't he? So how can you really argue when he said it is himself? What do you say to young women like that? They're picking out straws, aren't they? You go back on anybody. Go back on you, go back on you, go back on me 20 years. We've all said silly things at certain times. you do it's human nature i've never endorsed anybody online who said that they're going to lick carol horderman's arsehole people say things it's a northern working town you go in any of these pubs on a saturday night and they hear what they're talking about and the language and you'll say yeah but do you think no i don't agree with things like that no i think it's wrong but we've all done things wrong you can't pick stuff up from 20 years ago of what somebody said it's had an effect would you say it's had an effect no not really not with the people here might have had effect with people in london that young lady there wasn't from london she lives here i don't know i I didn't hear her, but you're saying she said that.

24:10She did? She may well have done, but on average, no, I don't think the people here are rude about things like that. They want a local lad who's going to do good in their neighbourhood and represent them.

24:20Lewis:But do you think the local lasses want a lad like that? I think a lot of people who know Rob know what a decent chap he is, and I think he would represent the area far better than Andy Burnham, who's just using it as a stepping stone, which we all know. I mean, he made his comments a long time ago, and of course you mature as you as you get older you get more experience you get wiser about things you do when you're younger you do things that you regret and a lot of people like he was 14 years old i mean he was a fully grown man when he was making those comments well i mean i'm 60 and the things i've done in my 20s i go put my hands over my head you know i shouldn't have done things like that but you learn over time and he's he's The thing is, you've got the professional politicians who can rhyme off things, I can't do it, but he can't rhyme off things.

25:10He's honestly a new person who really wants to make a difference in his local community. And he's put himself forward. Everybody's got bits in the past because any top professional politician's got bits, it always comes up. unfortunately you know he regrets saying those sort of things now i mean at the time he probably was a joke and stuff like that but he didn't think he was going to be in politics no one does think they're going to be in politics because i'm not about 62 and i've just started in politics you know what i mean never been in politics myself never been on tv or anything like this so this is all new to me but he's an honest guy who wants to do the best for all the people at makerfield and he wants to support them, where Andy Burnham, he just wants to use this place to jump into PM's seat.

26:05And that's the only reason this guy's pulled out, stopped being an MP and given his place to Andy Burnham so he can get in to become Prime Minister. And far as I understand, he's a lot more left than Keir Starmer, which that's not going to help the country at all. It's going to make it even worse.