Starmer in shambles: Can he last the week?

0:01This is a Global Player Original Podcast.

0:30pissed off. Well this is part of the problem, you know, we're fighting each other rather than getting behind the nation, unifying the nation around a common principle of purpose and that purpose is to defend the nation, defend the freedoms that we enjoy and ensure we've got the determination and courage to make those difficult decisions. That is Al Karns until yesterday afternoon, the Armed Forces Minister, a decorated military veteran himself, but pouring scorn on this government's attempts to find a solution to how to fund our defence budget. What does Keir Starmer do now? Welcome to The News Agents.

1:13It's John. It's Lewis. And one of the front pages, I think, sums up everything that happened yesterday extremely well. In just three words, Healy torpedoes Starmer. As you and Emily were saying on the show yesterday, John, I can't think of a more devastating resignation, actually. Even some of the great famous ones, some of which you were talking about yesterday, like with Geoffrey Howe and Margaret Thatcher, for all sorts of reasons, the sort of politician that John Healy is. The subject which is involved, how weak Starmer's authority already is, the manner of his departure is priming the politics to come, especially with Makerfield next week.

1:51And he wasn't alone since you recorded yesterday, as you've already said, Al-Khans, the defense, the armed force minister resigned later in the evening after an extraordinary interview on Sky News where he made it clear and they made it clear that he hadn't even bothered as a sitting minister to check ahead or check in with number 10 to get clearance to do the interview, which, of course, is always necessary and usual for any ministerial interview. Again, a sign of just how frayed to the point of almost non-existence this prime minister's writ and authority is over his own government. A few hours after he'd done that interview with Sky, he had resigned, telling Keir Starmer that the government's defence investment plan, the DIP, was neither transformative enough nor sufficiently funded, which, of course, echoes exactly what John Healy had said in that extraordinary resignation letter.

2:45Healy's PPS, Pamela Nash, the sort of lowest rung on the ministerial ladder, also resigned last night as his parliamentary assistant. And what I also found very striking, John, beyond the resignations and the more narrow matter of defence as important as it is, what I found so striking were the number of Labour MPs who took to X and sent posts, not in defence of the Prime Minister, not suggesting or saying, you know, or indicating that somehow that John Healy might have been misguided or had been wrong to resign, but the number of Labour MPs, including sitting ministers, talking about their admiration for Healy, saying how principled and honourable they thought that he had been, and almost not a word of support whatsoever for either Keir Starmer or Rachel Reeves position.

3:38I think going into yesterday, the path for Keir Starmer to remain as Prime Minister in the wake of a Andy Burnham victory in Makerfield, well slim and slender. After what we saw yesterday, it feels to me as if it is almost now non-existent. Yeah, it's so interesting, isn't it? Because it's hard to see the resignation of a minister provoke such an outpouring of support from all sides since when do since when do we have any unifying politicians in this country and yet somehow john healy rises and rose above the political fray as someone who was doing a tough job in difficult circumstances but who had the interests of the nation at heart and i think what made it even more powerful was the fact that we knew no one's talking about john healy as put potential leadership contender.

4:34It was because he didn't have that sort of sense of ambition and drive for himself that I think makes it all the more powerful, all the more toxic for Keir Starmer. The only thing I would say, and it was funny, someone sent me, who works in the defence industries, from the trade body, a message, the statement that the chief executive of this trade body put out last night and he says you know over the years i've known him he's consistently shown himself to be an intelligent supportive and highly principled man who has the best interests of uk defense as top of mind in everything that he does and then it goes on his resignation today is something to lament and truly a damning reflection on the current state of affairs you'd normally think a trade body would say well i'd like to thank john healy for all the work he's forward to working with the new Secretary of State.

5:27And I think that may be in some people's minds. Was he too close? Was he too close to the defence industries who would profit from the contracts that would be given out if John Healy had won that extra money? I don't know. It's a small thing, but I just thought, actually, I wonder how helpful that is to John Healy. But the broader point that you're making about this was someone who was trying to fight the good fight within government is absolutely true. And what makes it doubly so is that Keir Starmer has made it clear that is the fight above all else that needs to be won. This is Keir Starmer when he was speaking at the Munich Security Conference earlier this year.

6:09The road ahead is straight and it is clear. We must build our hard power because that is the currency of the age. We must be able to deter aggression. And yes, if necessary, we must be ready to fight, to do whatever it takes to protect our people, our values and our way of life. And as Europe, we must stand on our own two feet. Now that means being bolder. It means putting away petty politics and short-term concerns it means acting together to build a stronger europe and a more european nato yeah put away the petty concerns we've got to work together you know and yet within his own government that he leads the first lord of the treasury couldn't get this spending for the defense investment plan over the line yeah look i am i think that there is i mean the interests of let's be a bit sceptical here about the Ministry of Defence for a second.

7:24Just before I say that, I should say, I mean, I got to know John Healy a little bit during the sort of Afghanistan data leak story. I mean, I found him very, very straight. I have absolutely no doubt whatsoever that this is what he thinks. None of it is political. He really believes that we need this money. And it's absolutely true to say as well that there is a wider context in all of this. European defence spending in many places and in many countries is galloping ahead. It is clear their own capabilities are not adequate in all sorts of ways. We've seen that play out over the Iran crisis. If you look at the extraordinary extra defence spending that we're seeing in places like Poland now, four and a half percent of GDP, Germany and so on, we are quickly declining down the league tables in terms of military spending within NATO as a proportion of our GDP.

8:11I think if the prime minister and the chancellor were sat here, I think they would have a case, which is this. they would say, look, we did the strategic defence review. We did that with the Ministry of Defence. We found the money for that. We pledged the extra money that the Ministry of Defence said that they would require. And now they're coming back when it isn't clear that that much materially has changed and asking for money over and above that. Now, the international scene has changed to some extent. So I'm sure the Ministry of Defence could say that. Secondly, I think it is true to say that within the Treasury, there is, I think, rightly huge scepticism about the Ministry of Defence and their competence, frankly, in actually buying and procuring and designing new kits, new material, new armaments.

8:59There is a feeling that it is basically a bottomless pit, a bit like the NHS, but with the key difference with the NHS, that when you have the NHS and other bits of the public sector, the right wing press are watching it like a hawk, laser like focus, looking for largesse, looking for examples of spending gone awry, trying to find examples of proof positive, if you like, of their theory that basically the public sector can't spend money well. The one exception, the one exception to that in the public sector is defence, where those same people who are so sceptical of profligacy in the public sector don't apply that same scrutiny to Ministry of Defence and basically say whatever the army chiefs want, the army chiefs have got to get.

9:41So I do understand that scepticism and I do understand that fight within the government. But I think there are two big problems with that. One, you've already said, John, which is that it is Keir Starmer himself who has set his stall and attached his colours to the idea of security, improving the apparatus of our security. and boasted and gone to all of these conferences, pledging and suggesting and saying that Britain will be absolutely central in the fight against Russia and against our wider enemies. You can't attach and give so much sort of your own diplomatic credibility. You can't say all of those things if you're not then willing to back it up with a hard, real cash, because the Ministry of Defence know then they've got you over the barrel.

10:26And the second thing, I think, in terms of why it doesn't really wash either, is simply because, as I say, you've seen the international situation change. He himself has gone to Trump and the American administration and said, we will spend this money and we will spend more money. And sooner or later with Starmer, you know, these words are going to come back to haunt you. His entire legacy, if you like, his entire promise or premise of his premiership has been based around foreign affairs, security and so on. And that is why all of this is particularly damaging for what remained of his authority.

11:04And I have to say, I thought that as a piece of political incompetence, and we've seen quite a lot of that from number 10 over the last few months, as a piece of political mismanagement, losing Healy in the first place, devastating. I think, you know, almost to the point where you almost got to do whatever it takes to retain him because you know how damaging it would be. But in the event of then losing it, don't brief out, don't brief out, as the Treasury did last night, that basically what John Healy is saying is that he wants less money to be spent on schools and hospitals. Because that's not true.

11:36That is going to piss off not only Healy and his allies, but anybody within the parliamentary Labour Party who can see that that is not the only answer. Government is about choices. It's about political choices. It is not the case that you have to spend intrinsically less money on schools and hospitals if you're going to increase money on defence. It is true to say that we are in a period of straitened resources and there are hard choices to be made. But you and I have talked about this before, occasionally get stick-free. Ultimately, in the next four years, we are planning to be spending an extra£20 billion on sickness and disability-related benefits.

12:10And that is a political choice. I'm not talking about changing it from where it is now. That's just the net increase from where we are today by 2030. And £20 billion, whether it's on schools or hospitals or defence, arguably would be far better spent than on simply seeing a welfare budget which balloons and balloons and balloons. I mean, I'm struck, Lewis, by you last Friday were sitting where I am now talking to West Streeting. And West Streeting, you know, we played out the clip from your interview where West Streeting is almost predicting this and says this is the exemplar of Keir Starmer's lack of political craft skill to be able to get something done and a decision made and rally the support needed.

12:54If you are the prime minister and you are saying and you're standing up at the Munich Security Conference, making this pledge that this is the kind of be all and end all of what this government is about and keeping the nation safe and the circumstances have changed. And therefore, we've got to put aside petty differences and just take the tough decisions that are necessary. And then you're incapable of delivering on that. That is really quite striking. I'm wondering, you know, we don't know what Dan Jarvis said when he got offered the job and kind of I'd said on the podcast yesterday, I thought it would be Dan Jarvis.

13:30So I was mighty relieved when it turned out that it was him who's become the new defence secretary. Cassandra Sopel strikes again. Yeah, I know. Exactly. Cassandra. Must be hard to have this level of foresight. You should just see my crystal balls. Honestly, they're quite amazing. Not again. Thanks. I think that does Dan Jarvis go into those conversations and those chats and say, OK, you want me to be defence secretary? Right. Here's the price tag. And I wonder whether he tries to get some more money for the defence investment plan, you know, because he's in a very powerful position when Keir Starmer is in a right old bloody mess.

14:08This is why this is so, so toxic, I think. Not just because, I mean, you can make an argument to say, let's say that we accept what Healy is saying is right. If what Healy is saying is right, then basically what this government is doing, and this is why it's so politically devastating, is basically leaving Britain exposed to the possibility of foreign attack and is not doing enough to keep us safe, which given that is the first duty of any government, hard to find how it could be or imagine how it could be more devastating. But even if we just leave the substance of it to one side, let's say that Dan Jarvis, let's say Keir Starmer would like, is now minded to actually give the Ministry of Defence what it wants or some of what it wants.

14:48One of the reasons I think he's got into this mess in the first place is precisely because his political authority has been so limited and lessened by so much of what has happened. It's clear that he didn't have the authority, if he was so minded, to actually get out of the Treasury what he thinks would be necessary. he then goes to the rest of the cabinet and says right I want one percent of your capital budgets in order to fund extra spending for the Ministry of Defence spending by the way that Healy says is not sufficient but even that one percent across the different departments and basically those departments seem to have basically sort of said or at least are in no mood or in no hurry to actually do what the Prime Minister wants and carry out the Prime Minister's will and if that was the case before this resignation, then my word, what would the case be now?

15:39I think the truth is, is there's a feeling, I've been speaking to a few people, you know, senior people in White Hall officials and whatever. There is a feeling right now that when we're thinking about the Prime Minister's authority, the authority of the centre, which is so crucial in our system, the one thing that really cannot unlock things in White Hall is if the Prime Minister wants it, the Prime Minister says, the Prime Minister wants and needs this to happen, that right now, where that authority should be, there is a complete vacuum. Someone said to me, it is if there is no centre right now, because we are all in this remarkable position where we're waiting to see what happens in Makerfield.

16:18And it's been reported today that the Prime Minister even now is convinced that he can and should fight on in the event of a Burnham victory. Maybe we can talk about that a bit later. But even leaving Makerfield to one side, the Prime Minister's own authority over the machine seems so limited right now that government, in the sense of getting anything done beyond the wheels just turning in the way that they normally would and should, just isn't happening. Well, lots were drawn yesterday in Downing Street about who would get the short straw to have to go out and defend the government over what has happened, to be the one who goes on the radio and says, no, no, no, everything is just absolutely hunky-dory.

16:58It fell to Peter Kyle, the science minister. We have consistently delivered on defence. We got to the 2.6 % or 2.5 % target years ahead of target, our promises, our manifesto commitment. And we've got to 2.6 % now and we are charging ahead. This is a really difficult moment because we are in such a You're charging ahead, Mr Kyle. No, we are charging ahead with the purpose. From 2.6 to 2.68, So that's 0.08%. That's charging ahead. Nick, we will get to 3 % by the early period of the next Parliament and to 3.5 % by 2035. But it's not enough, Mr Kyle. It's not enough for your former colleague, Secretary of State for Defence.

17:42It's not enough for the Armed Forces Minister. It's not enough for Lord Robertson, who was a Defence Secretary under Labour and Secretary-General of NATO. And it's not enough for a squadron of former military men and women. How can we as straight-faced tell us that you're getting to where you need to be? I can tell you, Nick, with a completely straight-faced, that when we went into the last election pledging to get to 2.5 % by the end of this parliament, everybody agreed that that was an ambitious target. Yeah, it's so interesting, John, hearing Peter Carley talking about 2.5%, 3%. Again, I do think one of the consequences of what we saw yesterday, I think there are two big consequences, really.

18:19One is, I think it will be even actually harder to have a sensible conversation about defence. And there is, I mean, look, I've said on the show many times before, I think, you know, we should have been spending more on defence for a long time. I am struck by, it does seem that a lot of the commentary on this, it's almost as if we got to year zero when Labour was elected, as if they are wholly responsible for how inadequate and incapable our military seems to be and our capabilities seem to be at the moment. In fact, as we know, these things have incredibly long run in times. And, you know, the Conservatives, I think, actually have got away with a huge amount in terms of their own record on defence and the MOD.

18:53But leaving that to one side, you know, we had a long debate for a long time, which, again, the right always wanted to have, which was to say, you know, when we were talking about 0.7 percent of GDP on international aid, they would often say, well, why are we thinking about it in terms of percentage of GDP? Yes, that's an international target. But shouldn't we be thinking about what we need, about the capabilities that we ought to have? And I do think that that is true and ought to be true on defence as well. It could be that we need to spend more than three percent GDP on defence. But, you know, the actual two and a half, three percent, whatever it is, fundamentally, these are pretty arbitrary targets, especially arbitrary of late because they've basically been set to try and please Donald Trump.

19:32So, you know, I think that was unfortunate. I do think the net result of his resignation yesterday will be to make that conversation of even harder to have a sensible conversation, even harder to have. And also, let's leave Starnborough to one side for a second. This is going to make life difficult for Andy Burnham, because Andy Burnham, if he's going to come in and he's elected on Thursday and then becomes prime minister, what does he think about defence? What does he think about that extra military spending? He's been hinting at lots of different extra spending pledges, including to, among other people, the Waspby Women over the course of the next week, last week.

20:05Pretty expensive stuff. I think what the Healy resignation has done and will do is propel the question of defence spending even higher on the agenda and limit the room of manoeuvre for Starmer, for sure, but also for anybody who might replace Starmer, principally Burnham, and what was already a really, really tight set of public spending limitations. And that's what makes me think even more and more that in some form, quite significant tax rises are probably coming. Well, let's consider those questions about how Starmer does respond to all this, particularly next week when Bakerfield is taking place.

20:41We'll be back in just a moment.

20:49From a range of trusted voices and award winning journalists. Good morning, I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. He was actually treated in a way that meant an accusation of a racial slur was treated more seriously than an act of murder. They wanted riots and they got riots, aided and abetted by people who really should know better. But the next dimension of this tragedy could be even more troubling. Listen on our free Global Player app or the LBC app. LBC, leading Britain's conversation.

21:33so weirdly last night i ran into someone who is a mate of uh keir starmer's who was left reeling to be honest about what had happened with the resignation of john healy and he sort of sketched out a plan of what was intended to happen on the assumption that next week andy burnham won the Makerfield by-election. It went something like this, that Andy Burnham would be embraced warmly by Keir Starmer, be told you've just shown us how we can win in Makerfield. Now we've got to win the mayoralty in Manchester again. And once you've done that, come back into the cabinet and become Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs.

22:13And you can deal with some of those issues about the people who've been left behind that you have been talking about in your very effective mayoralty of Greater Manchester. Then you will have plenty of time to prepare yourself for a challenge. Not immediately. I won't be fighting the next election, but I will make space for that to happen before the next election. But it will suit you and it will suit me and it will suit the Labour Party if there is an orderly handover of power and we just don't need to run at it too fast because let's face it, Andy, you're not ready to take over and I'm not ready to go.

22:51I think the plan, if that genuinely is what it was, and it sort of makes a certain amount of sense, has been sort of slightly blown apart by the Healy resignation. And I think that they are left thinking, well, what on earth do we do now? Yeah. Secretary of State for Constitutional Affairs. Here's your ticket to Vladivistok, Mr Burnham. Would you enjoy? Perhaps you'd enjoy spending three or four weeks on the Trans-Serviberian Express. No, of course. I mean, I'm sure I can totally see the appeal to Starmer, even to Burnham potentially of that plan. But you're right, as we were saying at the start, it feels to me that the space for that sort of rapprochement or the space for Starmer to potentially want to stay on and fight has become almost impossible to see.

23:38That said, I mean, Patrick McGuire's got a good piece in The Times today about this. You know, Starmer, as we know, is a stubborn guy and he backs himself. You know, any successful prime minister should. And he has, in fairness to him, often been underestimated. In fairness to him, he's often beaten the odds before. So I can imagine in Keir Starmer's story in his own head, this is the latest kind of iteration of that. But I think if Burnham wins on Thursday and people up there are increasingly bullish, at least privately, that that is going to happen, then um i think that and starmer then obviously you say has a decision and burnham has a decision as well which is how and when to challenge i'm sure he'd much prefer not to have to do it in the first place and he'd much prefer if starmer were to fall on his sword and recognize the game was up i think the circumstances in which that might happen is this it is clear that there are plenty of other people on the front bench in the ministerial ranks who are willing to resign.

24:40It is clear from the reaction to Healy yesterday that discipline within the government itself has all but broken down. And as we've been saying, the ability of number 10 to have its way over the Whitehall machine and increasingly even over the Labour machine is vanishing very quickly. And I think if it became clear, and I am told and I'm sure that this is the case, that there would be multiple members of the cabinet who would resign unless Starmer sets out a timetable in short order. And that could be, you know, it doesn't have to be an immediate timetable. It could be, you know, getting through to September or October, do one last party conference.

25:19We'll see one of those sort of endless sort of Bette Midler type sort of forever farewell tours, you know, and kind of trying to generate the legacy. and will say, Keir, you know, if you do this, then it will open the space for you to maybe to get a few last things through the actual government machine and through the Labour Party. There'll be gratitude to you. This is the way that you construct a legacy. One of the ironies, though, of course, of that idea is that initially, at least as part of that plan, one of the planks and pillars of that legacy was supposed to be the defence investment plan and supposed to be getting that off the books, which actually, funnily enough, I'm sure Andy Burnham would have quite liked because you know that's quite a knotty thorny issue spending commitments that burnham would rather not have to think about but as we've just been saying unless dharma can suddenly sort of turn it around seems unlikely now in terms of actually resolving it it's just going to be one of those other big big sort of political issues that he's going to have to try and resolve if he comes yeah i've heard something very similar i mean i think what what you've just highlighted Lewis, is how little we know about what Andy Burnham thinks about myriad issues.

26:24You know, obviously the focus now is on what happens about defence spending and the defence investment plan. And does he support John Healy or does he stand with Keir Starmer? You know, we just have no idea where Andy Burnham and rightly so. He hasn't wanted to talk about things like that when he's fighting a by-election and he's talking, asking for the people in Makerfield to vote for him on local issues so fair enough but i think it shows that there is a huge gap where we just have no idea what it is that andy burnham thinks about a whole range of detailed issues where decisions will have to be made on spending on tax on savings whatever it happens to be i think the plan that you sketch out i've heard something very very similar that look you know kirsten you've got two choices.

27:12You can have a legacy as the man who took us from the depths of despair and Jeremy Corbyn that in a record time you turn this party around, you win a record, you know, general election, you then do some important changes to Britain. Defence investment plan, you know, was meant to be part of that, of course. And you go in a way that is dignified that the Labour Party doesn't tear itself apart or you go as a leader who ran us into the ground who leads to a squabbling bad-tempered election contest where no one wins and the party's reputation lies in tatters at the end of it and I can see how you frame that argument and I can see the mechanism and I think you're right to talk about the lack of discipline on the front bench now and the lack of loyalty I was told last night that apparently Keir Starmer was really hurt and taken aback by Ed Miliband sort of you know suggesting that it was time that Keir Starmer thought about laying out a timetable in the wake of the local council elections and I think that speaks to how unpolitical Keir Starmer is that he thinks well but Ed Miliband's my friend how could he possibly do that and so I think that there is every possibility that there is stubbornness I still think the most likely scenario is what happened with Margaret Thatcher when at the end of her time in office, when, you know, there'd been the leadership contest.

28:44She'd failed to win outright by two votes. And bit by bit, the cabinet kind of say to her, even though she says, I fight, I fight to win. Members of the cabinet, one by one, go in to see her and say, I'm sorry, Margaret, I say it with a heavy heart, but it's over. And I think if the cabinet go in and say to Starmer, It's over. This doesn't go on and it can't go on. And if you try to make it go on even further without setting out a timetable, we'll go nuclear. I think he has to listen, doesn't he? Yeah, there is something I think really peculiar about the Keir Starmer premiership, John, and its end.