In short
Keir Starmer resigns as Labour leader and Prime Minister after losing support inside his party; discussion centers on whether Andy Burnham is now “unstoppable” and how quickly he could become PM, plus what this says about UK democracy and Labour’s political strategy.
Guest backgrounds
The episode is hosted by The News Agents team (John, Lewis, and Emily are named in the transcript). They are political commentators/journalists who analyze UK politics and parliamentary dynamics.
Key claims
Starmer’s resignation is framed as a “coup” by Labour MPs/cabinet after Burnham’s by-election win; Starmer is said to blame Burnham and believe loyalty failures caused his downfall. Multiple speakers argue Starmer lacked emotional connection with the public and political/people-management skill, and that his government’s policy choices (especially via Chancellor Rachel Reeves) hurt working people and employers.
Notable examples
Starmer’s “gold dress” achievements list (waiting lists, immigration, asylum hotels, relations with Europe/America, lifting children out of poverty); Winter Fuel allowance backlash; employers’ National Insurance rise; “two-child benefit”/poverty claims; a hospitality employer cutting staff and profits; debate over whether Burnham will scrap the state pension “triple lock.”
Written by AI. May contain mistakes. Listen to the episode to check what was said.
Chapters
Tap a time to open that second in VOKeir Starmer's Resignation Announcement
0:00 to 0:28
The discussion revolves around Keir Starmer's resignation and its implications.
“Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze.”
Keir Starmer's Resignation Announcement
0:30 to 2:06
The discussion revolves around Keir Starmer's resignation and its implications.
“There is something quite sort of Shakespearean about this, isn't there?”
Reflections on Political Dynamics
2:06 to 4:11
The hosts reflect on the political landscape and Starmer's leadership decisions.
“It is less than two years since Keir Starmer won a landslide general election.”
Starmer's Leadership Challenges
4:11 to 6:25
The challenges faced by Starmer during his leadership and the factors leading to his downfall are examined.
Analysis of Starmer's Legacy
6:25 to 7:59
A critical analysis of Starmer's achievements and failures as Prime Minister.
“And then the good friends and hopefully spouses next to you say, yeah, you've got that off your chest.”
The Rise of Andy Burnham
7:59 to 10:06
Discussion on Andy Burnham's potential rise and the implications for the Labour Party.
“Fundamentally, a position only holds for as long as it can hold when everyone around you is telling you that the ground beneath your feet has gone.”
Starmer's Political Competence
10:06 to 14:00
Exploration of Starmer's political competence versus his effectiveness as Prime Minister.
“And again, I think that the fact that he came out on Friday morning and said, I'm going to fight on now.”
Starmer's Political Downfall: Analyzing His Leadership
14:00 to 28:01
Explore the reasons behind Keir Starmer's resignation and the challenges he faced as Prime Minister.
“was competent at being Prime Minister but was incompetent at the pursuit of politics and in the end that did for him.”
Transition to New Leadership
28:01 to 28:40
Discusses the upcoming transition in leadership and its implications.
“Discover a spectacular island destination with crystal blue seas, endless sunshine, and the cool Bahamian breeze.”
Burnham's Departure to Parliament
28:50 to 30:02
Details Andy Burnham's journey and the significance of his arrival in Parliament.
“This morning, the Stenfield-Makerfield is the most important thing.”
Show all 18 chapters
Starmer's Power Dynamics
30:02 to 31:19
Explores Keir Starmer's strategic positioning related to Burnham's ascent.
“So Starmer had his time in Downing Street first thing this morning.”
West Streeting's Withdrawal
31:19 to 33:06
Examines the implications of West Streeting pulling out of the leadership contest.
“I was talking to someone well-placed to know and I sort of said, you know, is there anybody you could think of who in this circumstance now could get the 80-81 that you need?”
Burnham's Challenges Ahead
33:06 to 34:23
Analyzes the potential challenges Andy Burnham faces as de facto Prime Minister.
“And it's potentially a bit dangerous for Burnham because what happens now, let's assume within the next few days it becomes categorically clear that there's not going to be a contest.”
Policy Decisions for Burnham
34:23 to 36:54
Discusses potential policy directions and decisions facing Burnham as Prime Minister.
“And I don't know, I think if he was moving into number 10 straight away, he would have the momentum of that and that would carry him forward.”
Communicating Policies Effectively
36:54 to 38:34
Stresses the importance of effective communication of policies to the public.
“In other words, he has to come in and do something.”
Burnham's Political Strategy
38:34 to 42:01
Explores Andy Burnham's political strategy and the implications of internal party dynamics.
“What you've got to do is explain why you're doing something, do it, make the case for it and explain where that money can then go.”
Political Landscape After Starmer's Resignation
42:01 to 48:26
Discussion on the implications of Starmer's resignation and Burnham's potential rise to power.
“well, has a resignation, and unnecessary resignation of by-election.”
Future of Starmer and Labour Party Dynamics
49:06 to 53:14
Speculation on Starmer's next moves and the challenges faced by the Labour Party.
“And my local MP being one Sir Keir Starmer.”
Transcript
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0:34Andy Burnham:There is something quite sort of Shakespearean about this, isn't there?
0:37Lewis Goodall:In that speech, exactly the reason why he has been a failure as prime minister.
0:42Jon Sopel:It now is another prime minister who has come to power by a general election, but left via a coup.
0:49Lewis Goodall:It is the world's most painful popularity contest. He never established any emotional connection with the public. He was simply a vessel to remove the Tories. Where is the power?
0:59Andy Burnham:Who are we looking at? Are we looking at you? Are we looking at him? Who's in control? The question my party is asking now is whether I am best placed to lead us into the next general election. I have heard the answer of my parliamentary party to that question. And I accept that answer with good grace. Every decision I've taken has been about putting the country I love first. That is why I will resign as leader of the Labour Party. Keir Starmer becoming the 6th PM to resign from office in the last 10 years. And as he did so, he grappled with the question staring him in the face. Why has his own party turned its back on him?
1:53Jon Sopel:and turned against him viciously so that it is now almost inevitable that Andy Burnham becomes the next Prime Minister of this country. Is Andy Burnham ready? Is the country ready? Welcome to The News Agents.
2:14Andy Burnham:The News Agents.
2:16Jon Sopel:It's John. It's Meatless. It's Lewis. It is less than two years since Keir Starmer won a landslide general election. Less than two years since he said that politics would tread less heavily on people's lives and that stability would be returning. And here we are, the lectern out again in Downing Street, Keir Starmer announcing his resignation, pushed from office his backbenchers his own cabinet realizing deciding that he was not up to the job to face the populist surge from the right of reform and they wanted someone else
3:01Lewis Goodall:to take over this used to feel special you know um when one prime minister gave way to another it used to feel like a moment of course this still does feel like a moment but But even our pretty short history on this show, I was counting that we've done this four times now. It's the fourth prime minister we've seen appear before the election. This is where I say correlation or causation. I don't think it's our fault or it's anything to do with us, to be absolutely clear. Just to be clear, the newsagents isn't yet four years old. Indeed so. So we're getting through them at a hell of a pace. And we can talk about the bigger structural things, maybe, because I think a lot of people do want to see those addressed and are wondering why it is that we're going through primers at such a pace now.
3:44Lewis Goodall:But obviously, just for the moment, this was Keir Starmer's moment. And obviously this followed a weekend where Starmer was holed up at Chequers with his family, with his wife Victoria, with his remaining loyalists, having a debate, I'm told a serious debate. This wasn't sort of done and dusted until quite late on about whether or not he should fight. And Starmer's instinct, again, I'm told, and this is well documented, for much of this period was to fight when he's been saying over the last couple of weeks as late as friday morning after that maker field result that he would fight come what may he wasn't he wasn't lying that was a real open possibility and it was his intention but over the course of the weekend following in particular on friday afternoon a series of what have been described as brutal conversations with his cabinet colleagues, even some of those who are not necessarily friends or allies of Andy Burnham.
4:41Lewis Goodall:Cabinet minister after cabinet minister basically telling him that the game was up, the support within the parliamentary Labour Party had all but evaporated and if he did choose to fight, which he could have done, that Andy Burnham would contest the leadership and he would almost certainly lose with the membership in what would be a bitter, protracted and acrimonious contest that would damage whatever is left of his legacy and clearly that is something that in the end he's decided not to do but you could tell i think in in in his resignation statement which you know it had dignity to it it had emotion to it but it was also pretty terse and what i think it certainly lacked and revealed is the extent to which i don't think keir starmer is sat in downing street today thinking that you know what i screwed up here or I've made a series of mistakes I think what is clear from his language and his statement is that he blames the Labour Party he blames and I think clearly loathes Andy Burnham very revealing that the two men have not spoken this weekend quite extraordinary that they have not spoken with all these rumours that they would try and hash out a deal or or some sort of of timetable that has just not happened and so you've heard in Keir Starmer as you say John basically his analysis of this is that the herd moved there's been disloyalty showed to him and i think what we can see from the reporting and the statement is that keir starmer's analysis and belief is is that if all of this justice loyalty hadn't occurred that he would still be in place and
6:10Andy Burnham:this is an entirely needless coup look there's a moment when you write a speech and the first version of it is the the fuck you speech quite frankly where you say what's really on your mind and what you really think and how hurt you feel and how humiliated you feel. And then the good friends and hopefully spouses next to you say, yeah, you've got that off your chest. Rip that up, put it in a drawer and go and give the dignified speech that you will be happy with when it's replayed endlessly on a loop in the days, weeks, months and years to come. And so I think that's the version that you got from Keir Starmer today.
6:47Andy Burnham:I don't think he has let go of what he genuinely believes have been his achievements in office. It reminded me a little bit of that. Do you remember the whole debate about the gold dress and the blue dress where you see very different things? And the speech that Starmer wrote was the gold dress where he could list what he'd done to waiting lists, what he'd done to immigration, what he'd done to asylum hotels, what he'd done to relations with Europe, to relations arguably with America as well. And I think he does see these as actual tangible achievements, lifting, you know, half a million children out of poverty.
7:24Andy Burnham:He hails now as one of the big achievements of his government, slightly skirting over the fact that obviously that wasn't what he was originally going to do, lifting the cap on the two child benefit, etc. And that a lot of people will look at his list and say, you don't realise how close you've come to putting my business into a session, how close you've come to making it impossible for me to hire new workers or impossible to vest. But in a sense, what he is doing today is having to paint the best possible picture of the two years that he's been in office. And to the point about his position changing, I mean, yeah, I think you're right, Lewis.
8:02Andy Burnham:Fundamentally, a position only holds for as long as it can hold when everyone around you is telling you that the ground beneath your feet has gone. So on Saturday night, Friday, Saturday, we were understanding that those conversations were going on. And I think one by one, the skittles were falling. And it sounds like when it got to, you know, Yvette Cooper, amongst others, his foreign secretary, who was saying, sorry, it's over now. There were certain key people, Lord Faulkner, Charlie Faulkner was basically saying it's over, it's done very publicly. and I guess once you've had enough of those conversations whatever you inwardly think you can do however strong the fight is in you to keep going if there's no army behind you if there's no one backing you then there isn't a strategic, a viable way forward and I think it was Rachel Sylvester for The Observer who went first Saturday night wrote the piece that we all sort of opened late on a couple of pisco sours down to be honest going that that's it he's going to resign on monday and and this is now over and i think that is the point right that it wasn't that he was lying it wasn't that he suddenly lost the stomach for it it wasn't that he said one thing publicly and did another thing privately he just didn't find a way to do the thing that he wanted to do which was stay in look lewis you said a moment
9:27Jon Sopel:ago that the herd moved the herd didn't move the herd stampeded i mean this was the parliamentary Labour Party saying, Keir, you're not up to the job. And I'm told that the cabinet were kind of almost ringing round each other before they spoke to Starmer, so that there was a sort of agreed line among a sizeable chunk of the cabinet on those Friday phone calls that took place. And that even until last night, those cabinet members didn't know what Keir Starmer was going to come out and say when he opened the door of Downing Street today, or whether indeed he was going to open the door of Downing Street today.
10:01Jon Sopel:They were still in the dark. They assumed because of the Rachel Sylvester story that in The Observer that he would come out and announce his resignation. But no one knew for sure. And again, I think that the fact that he came out on Friday morning and said, I'm going to fight on now. OK, I understand you're trying to give yourself some breathing space. But again, it just shows his lack of political judgment. Why would you say that on Friday when it was so obvious that everything had changed overnight, not just by Andy Burnham's victory, but the scale of that victory, which meant that Labour MPs were thinking, you know, our saviour is not the guy who's in Downing Street at the moment.
10:41Jon Sopel:Our saviour is the guy in Manchester who's coming down on the train as we speak now. I think that Keir Starmer's resignation statement in its own way
10:49Lewis Goodall:adverted to exactly the reason that he was leaving or the reason that he's lost support. Look, I think two things can be true at once. We always say, look, I can totally understand why Starmer is really pissed off. I can totally understand why he must be furious. I can totally understand why he feels utterly grieved and angry at Burnham and the rest of it. I can see in his head he sat there thinking, hang on a minute. I won a huge majority in 2024. I won a majority out of 650 constituencies. We won over 400. This guy, out of nowhere, after I've put six years of hard, bloody graft, sacrificed family time, didn't have to do it his choice but you know sacrificed a lot because politicians do at that top level um you know he's coming in after all of that and all that hard graft wins one constituency albeit in spectacular fashion no doubt um and he's taking my job like what the hell like i can totally and where and by the way all these people who backed me like 10 minutes ago where are you totally understand that and he wouldn't be the first prime minister to feel aggrieved or betrayed and yet at the same time, yet and yet and yet, we can see in that speech exactly the reason why he has been a failure as Prime Minister.
11:55Lewis Goodall:I don't think he's been a failure as Labour leader, I think he's right to point to his record, six years as leader of the Labour Party, actually the longest serving leader of the Labour Party since Tony Blair, did transform the party's fortunes, he'll always get credit for that, picked up the pieces after the 2019 election, put the party in a position where it could win again, I think a lot of people would have won after the Tory implosion, but he did that. He'll always have that to his credit. But he has been pretty much a failure as prime minister. I think historians will look back and marvel how it could be that a prime minister with a majority of over 160 could throw away and spend all of that political capital in less than two years.
12:32Lewis Goodall:In a weird way, I think of him as the kind of inverse Rishi Sunak. Sunak's reputation, I think, sort of will get better over time because people will conclude, and I think this is already happening, look, this was a guy who was given a terrible hand and he played it probably just about as well as he could, but he was playing basically with a pair of double twos. You've got Starmer who was given a royal flush and somehow he managed. Yeah, there were loads of problems. Somehow he managed to throw it all of the way. And I think a big part of the reason for that, and of course there were big structural problems that any prime minister will have and Andy Burnham will have.
13:05Lewis Goodall:But part of the reason for that, when I think of Keir Starmer, I think this is a man who really enjoyed being prime minister and he did enjoy politics. and I think those two things could only cohabit for so long. That caught up with him. Ultimately he had, and I remember the first interview I ever did with him when I was starting to ask him about where his politics was and at the start of his leadership campaign which Labour figures from history he most admired and he sort of tutted at me and dismissed it and sort of said, oh, these silly Westminster games, silly political games. I don't sit up at night and think about politicians from the past I admire or politics.
13:39Lewis Goodall:He had, and I can totally understand that and that's fair enough, but he had a sort of abhorrence of politics of the game of politics. Sometimes he almost thought he was better than politics and I think in the end that lack of political ability that abhorrence of politics you know in the end if you don't have much time for politics politics won't have much time for you and I think that that is the story of Keir Starmer this is a man who in lots of ways was competent at being Prime Minister but was incompetent at the pursuit of politics and in the end that did for him.
14:06Andy Burnham:I think it depends what you mean by politics because you know weirdly he was savvy enough to see that if he let Andy Burnham stand in Gorton and Denton, I mean, remember Gorton and Denton four months ago, then this whole story could have been written much earlier. He was savvy enough to see. There is something quite sort of Shakespearean about this, isn't there? That we have known since at least last September, since at least the last Labour Party conference, that Andy Burnham was coming for him. And what we've essentially seen is sort of Starmer doing the blocks, you know blocks at conference here blocks at gordon and denton there and this was the final one that didn't i'm sorry to go off on one but it reminded me of this do you know do you remember the end of henry of richard ii where richard's imprisoned in his cell and the exiled bolingbroke henry bolingbroke is marching from exile towards the throne and he basically sort of confronts him and that's the end of Richard, you know, Richard basically sits in prison saying, I have wasted time or has time wasted me.
15:13Andy Burnham:And I guess that is where we are. Like all the things that Starmer is thinking that he could have done, that he wanted to do, that he didn't get the chance to do because the inexorable Burnham was on the march.
15:23Lewis Goodall:The fourth was a Lancastrian, so that would suit Burnham.
15:26Andy Burnham:Completely, right? It completely works, you know. And this idea that I think it's not the politics he's not good at. I would say it is the policy itself. And I think I'm just going to go out here because it's something that I've thought about for a long time. And I feel a slight traitor to my sex in doing this. But so many of the really dreadful, dreadful decisions from this whole government have come from the choices that Rachel Reeves has made. And for ages, people were kind of calling her Rachel in accounts and Rachel. And I found it very sexist and very classist. and I really pushed back on it.
16:06Andy Burnham:But I do think that Keir Starmer didn't have an eye on what his own Chancellor was actually trying to do. And I do think that's not just the original sin. So many of the problems stem from him appointing her to that role in the first place and not seeming to mind what she did. And I'll just give you one example. I talked to somebody over the weekend who's a chef, you know, works in hospitality. And he just gave me the top lines in the last year They've gone from 120 employees to 90. Their profit has gone from 12.5 to 5. The NIC contributions, the minimum wage, the business rate increases have demolished their margins.
16:47Andy Burnham:They're sitting on the edge of recession. And that's just one person who's, I think, speaking for many people in that same industry and saying, you know, this is not somebody who is a raving Tory or a reform friendly. Somebody saying, I was totally backing this government to do great things for working people and they've stuffed it.
17:05Jon Sopel:But I don't want to be the conciliator here, but I think you and Lewis are saying exactly the same thing. I don't. That is him being bad at politics. Yeah, that is him not taking an interest in what the hell was happening in the Treasury. Letting Rachel Reeves kind of, you know, scrap the winter fuel allowance, causing massive unpopularity. You know, coming into an election saying we've got to have growth in our economy. and then putting up employers' national insurance by two pence and giving workers' rights from day one, which again puts costs on employers and makes them less willing to employ people.
17:40Jon Sopel:Those are things that if you were a politically agile prime minister and it says on the letterbox you're the first lord of the treasury, these are things that you would say, whoa, hang on, you can't be doing that.
17:52Andy Burnham:I mean, he'll throw back, we've improved workers' rights, we've made the tenants' rights,
17:57Jon Sopel:we've done loads of stuff for but i think it was i think it was the he abdicated responsibility right for so much politics and was very bad at people management you know i was speaking to someone over the weekend very senior in the government talking about you know my problems aren't ideological my problems are that it was just so everything was so badly managed there There was, you know, bringing people in, building alliances, working out how we sell a story or sell a message. Who do we need to get on board? How quickly can we get them on board? You know, just the tight decisions, the tight judgments.
18:36Jon Sopel:And Keir Starmer wouldn't make those judgments. I think it's very easy to go down a narrative and, you know, look, people are right to point out seventh prime minister in a decade. And I think there is something, you know, maybe in the periphery about governability, maybe Brexit, whatever it happens to be.
18:54Andy Burnham:Look, we are literally on the cusp of the 10th anniversary of Brexit, Brexit Eve.
18:59Jon Sopel:And so it would be very tempting to say it's all because, you know, the uncertainty caused by Brexit. I think there are particular circumstances about Keir Starmer and the way that he ran the cabinet and the way that he ran politics and the way that he did politics, which was not to do politics, is what has cost him his premiership right now. I think that he is the author of this, I'm afraid, which is a harsh judgment because there are a lot of decent qualities about him. And I think that he's right to say, look, look at waiting lists, look at some of the achievements we've had. But I just think that you just look at public opinion.
19:37Jon Sopel:It seems to me totally disproportionate, The amount of hatred there is for Keir Starmer, given that he's quite a mild-mannered sort of bloke. But I think that's, John, because he never, ever established, precisely because of his lack of political skill,
19:51Lewis Goodall:he never established any emotional connection with the public on any level. He was simply, and I think, again, he and his team, I don't think, paid enough attention to this fact. They just talked about the size of the majority. He was simply a vessel to remove the Tories. That's all it was. And from that did not build a successful political programme, cognizant of the fact that the support for him was skin deep. Look, I think that, of course, there will be achievements. I think that he certainly, in terms of foreign affairs, we've discussed this many times, restored a certain dignity to Britain on the world stage.
20:25Lewis Goodall:You've got to give him some credit for that after years of not just sort of tumult, but frankly, yobbery from conservative prime ministers, you know, just for the sake of it. How many people can we get to hate us? Yeah, get a good headline. You know, the Millwall approach. you know like it was is pathetic and and starmer to his credit had none of that and he definitely restored certain respect and in fairness you've seen that in terms of the tributes that have been coming in from coming for him from um from von der line the president of the eu commission president zelensky all of them and i don't think it's just the normal bromides to be fair i think they feel it but domestically speaking i think that kia starmer's fundamental problem and everything always went back to this was a profound lack of intellectual curiosity about politics and sense of what he wanted to do even his speech betrayed that his speech today which you know i'm not expecting him to self-flagellate you know ultimately they've all come for him he doesn't need to sit there and sort of you know attack himself endlessly but normally when prime ministers go they at least offer a little bit of contrition and sense of where their own demerits and faults might have led to the moment that we're in.
Read the full transcript
21:33Lewis Goodall:A little bit of, frankly, guidance for the country as to why the hell I'm resigning. Keir Starmer's went as far as to say, my party no longer wants me. Why, Keir? Why do they no longer want you? It hasn't come from nowhere. In fact, most Labour MPs would dearly like not to have been in this position. Yeah, Burnham's been gunning you for your job from day one. But most of them, your median Labour MP wasn't there. Why have they become there? Because they have become convinced that you are incapable, intellectually, politically, of answering the essay question that you yourself set at the Labour Party conference in September, October.
22:05Lewis Goodall:Who is best placed to beat reform? You set that essay question, another strategic mistake, which Burnham has answered for you. And I'll just say this finally. I think ultimately, and this is where I do think a little bit of conceitedness really sort of kicks in, which is that I think not only was Starmer uniquely, intellectually incurious about politics, he had no sense of what his growth plan would be he had no sense or theory of change of the state or the economy and fundamentally he always thought he didn't need one because his basic analysis i've said this on the show before but i do think it's fundamental his basic analysis was that the tories were feckless reckless and useless and he kia starmer being competent and efficient and managerial and better than them frankly would fix our problems now they were all of those things but the extent of the malaise in British politics was that that was a necessary condition to fix British politics but it was not a sufficient condition.
23:05Lewis Goodall:He had to have a programme of his own and a political programme of his own and not only did he not have one, I don't think he ever really wanted one.
23:12Andy Burnham:Yeah, I think it's hard to argue that there wasn't a clear vision but there is one thing I'd say and it's this. I do think it takes real bravery to go into public political life and I don't think we should forget that And we don't always get the person we voted for. You might not like what they do in power. But genuinely, it is the world's most painful popularity contest where people tell you daily and unambiguously how much they hate you. And every time the response to, you know, a good person going into politics and sort of ending up humiliated, I do think the knock on effect will be people just looking around and going, not me, not for me, not doing that, do not want to do that.
24:00Andy Burnham:and there are mistakes made. And the trouble with being a prime minister is you don't get to practice. Not really. You hit the ground and you have to know what you're doing. And I agree with you, Lewis, that there was not enough preparation that went into that. But I just really worry that people are looking at this now. I mean, my son got texted by a sort of friend of his overseas who said, is it now illegal to complete your full term in office in the UK? Right. This is the sort of what we're projecting out onto the world that nobody stays in their job and we do not give anyone time. And two years is basically, you know, you're done or you're out.
24:39Andy Burnham:And I do sort of think that we are demanding so much of these public figures if we just mince them up. We just mince them up, having sort of, you know, brought them to a place where we're saying we think you can do this. we've all decided you can do this oh no fuck off you can't so politics has always been a brutal
25:00Jon Sopel:contact sport i think what may have changed is is the speed with which the sport happens you know it's like a boxing match which was fought over 15 rounds it's now right smash bang wallop in the first round if you're not standing you're out and i think that has changed the speed the patience the tolerance of you know have we got time i mean kia starmer did come to office saying look some of this is going to take two terms and we're going to need a long time to change this around and we can't 10 years yeah 10 years he wanted and and you know and unfortunately and this has happened in a weekend and this has happened in a weekend where people just the cabinet said to him enough is enough and so i think there's an element of that in it about people getting to public life i i also think to your point emily about who'd want to do it i i do if you haven't if you haven't Yeah, Andy Burnham.
25:50Jon Sopel:But if you haven't seen it, look at the picture, the face of Victoria, his wife, on the steps of Downing Street. After he's made his statement, they have a hug and they go onto the step of Downing Street to face the cameras. And her face looks like thunder.
26:07Andy Burnham:Of course. And we know his kids didn't want it. You know, his daughter, I think it's no secret now, his kids were really nervous about him becoming prime minister. his son really didn't want him to bring in the social media I mean maybe he's happy because the social media ban doesn't get done now but the impact on all your family the humiliation of seeing your spouse basically picked up, squeezed and thrown out is impossible to get to grips with I think
26:33Jon Sopel:But to the question that the mate of your son asked about politics it now is another Prime Minister who has come to power by a general election, but left via a coup. And it is, you know, 1970 to 74, Edward Heath, the last time a prime minister won an election and came to power via that and lost power by losing an election. So over half a century since a prime minister... In a way, that sort of shows it's not unusual. I mean, our system is... That is the norm. That's incredible. Well, it is the norm, But it's become even more the case and more exaggerated that we now have coup as a way of becoming prime minister or coup as a way of losing power and not because of the people's vote at the ballot box.
27:26Jon Sopel:And so we're now going to be in a position where Andy Burnham from some market town in the northwest of England. And that is not to demean Makerfield, but is, you know, always demeaning. There is no market town called Makerfield as it happened. Exactly. Ashton upon Makerfield or whatever it is. and he is going to become the next Prime Minister. Don't need to get it right anymore, John. We've moved on now. I know, I know. But what does it say about our democracy? That we have chosen, in effect, our next Prime Minister and he has not yet even been sworn in as an MP as we sit here and record this at 10 to 1.
27:58Lewis Goodall:Well, we should talk a little bit about the future and what the timetable is going to be for this transition that is coming up right after this.
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28:49Andy Burnham:Hi Andy, Manchester Evening News, what do you reckon, Prime Minister of Adelaide?
28:53Jon Sopel:I'm going to take you in.
28:55Andy Burnham:This morning, the Stenfield-Makerfield is the most important thing.
28:58Lewis Goodall:Who announced your intention to stand today? I'm going to... I'll read the Blackboard, I think. Any message for the region as you head down to London? How's it going to go? It's this.
29:09Andy Burnham:So Henry Bolingbroke never had to contend with Avanti trains, famously. Andy Burnham is leaving Manchester, Piccadilly, I think, the station there, with quite a throng around him. And it is an extraordinary moment because he's just, you know, he's not even an MP yet. He has not even been sworn in. He's in his T-shirt, black T-shirt, sort of the uniform, the Mancunian uniform and jeans. Burnham normcore. Yeah. And he's about to get on a train to arrive into what a totally expectant parliament. And he will be sworn in at 2.30. And I guess there is some sense that when Keir Starmer took to the lectern at 9.30 this morning, it was precisely to avoid there being this overlap of, you know, where is the power?
29:59Andy Burnham:Who are we looking at? Are we looking at you? Are we looking at him? Who's in control? So Starmer had his time in Downing Street first thing this morning. Burnham will be sworn in at 2.30 this afternoon. I don't know if we'll expect Starmer to be in the Commons for that, will we? No, I'd be amazed. I'd be amazed watching his own execution. So I have to say, when we were talking about this over the weekend, we did imagine a contest which opened on Tuesday, frankly, and was sort of all done and dusted a week later by the 9th. The way Starmer has set it out is slightly longer, which is it opens on the 9th.
30:35Andy Burnham:In other words, a sort of, what is that, a week tomorrow. And it is finalised by the 16th of July.
30:43Lewis Goodall:Unless it's a contest and it will run till September.
30:46Andy Burnham:Exactly. Now, we know that West Streeting has, in the last couple of hours, pulled away from his own bid to be leader. we can debate whether that means he didn't get the numbers or he did get a deal, a big sort of offer of a sort of big state of office job. And we are waiting to see if anyone else will come forward. But if no one does, and I probably would bet money on that as we speak, then Andy Burnham could go from being an MP today to being a PM a week on Wednesday.
31:26Lewis Goodall:um yeah i mean look this is as you've already said john we've never seen anything like this before we've never seen and we really feel like we've moved on from makerfield but we've never we've never seen uh an mp or someone become an mp literally on the thursday and basically become the de facto prime minister by the monday i mean starmer clearly um i think by all accounts wanted to actually the reason he's done it today is because he didn't want the sense that the humiliation frankly it's humiliating enough of burnham kind of getting the train and kind of chasing him out of town that was basically the impression that that that would be given coming for his job launching all of that i think now that streeting and streeting as you say emily i mean he despite the fact of course i mean only a few weeks ago he's on this very show telling us that that he would 100 come what may fight any contest within i think about 20 minutes of the starmer statement coming to an end he tweeted that burnham had basically he'd been in discussions with burnham over the course of the weekend and he was sure that the sort of ideas that he had been articulating and he had been talking about would have a place in the new government so he would not be contesting because it would be a waste of time thereby shutting down the most likely route i'm still not convinced at all that streeting had the numbers but if he did then thereby shutting down the most likely route for a contest.
32:45Lewis Goodall:I was talking to someone well-placed to know and I sort of said, you know, is there anybody you could think of who in this circumstance now could get the 80-81 that you need? They said the chances are absolutely nil. And therefore, and it is hard to imagine who that would be, therefore Burnham has set course to become Prime Minister quite quickly. Now, he actually wanted Team Burnham, although neither he nor Starmer had actually spoken, so there was no way could affect this but all of the briefing at the weekend was that burnham wanted to actually have a longer transition for september without a contest to give him time to prepare for office now starmer clearly has decided i'm having none of that that i'm not just going to stick around like a sort of wax mannequin in down in downing street being a kill of caretaker prime minister waiting for you to get your ducks in a row so starmer's sort of last acts or minor act of vengeance against burnham has been to puncture that possibility of giving him a longer transition My view actually is now, as you say, Emily, that if there is no contest, even this sort of three-week period feels a very long transition to me.
33:48Lewis Goodall:And it's potentially a bit dangerous for Burnham because what happens now, let's assume within the next few days it becomes categorically clear that there's not going to be a contest. Where does the media pack run to? Well, there's going to be a vacuum and it's not going to be Starmer stories anymore and it's not going to be Starmer leadership stories anymore and it's not going to be contest stories anymore. It's going to be, who the hell is Andy Burnham? What the hell does he plan to do?
34:10Andy Burnham:What do you think about X?
34:11Lewis Goodall:And what do you plan to do about X, Y and Z? And this time he can't hide behind Makerfield. He can't say, look, I'm focusing on Makerfield. I'm focusing on this by-election. He will be the de facto prime minister. Indeed, his favourite marketer. The de facto prime minister. And I don't know, I think if he was moving into number 10 straight away, he would have the momentum of that and that would carry him forward. He'd have announcements and there'd be excitement. But, you know, as we all know, the media pours a vacuum. And if there's a vacuum over the next three weeks where he's not really in a position to command the story, but is still the de facto prime.
34:42Lewis Goodall:And that's quite dangerous for him. So I think if it becomes clear there's no contest, I'd be quite tempted to be pressuring the NEC and Starman to say, you know what, let's just bring it forward.
34:51Jon Sopel:Yeah, I mean, that would be a very interesting thing for them to do. I do think that it's interesting what's happened with West Streeting, because is this a sign of West Streeting's strength or weakness that he has come out and said what he has said? Is it because he has been offered a great office of state like the Treasury? Or is it because actually he didn't have many cards to play and that Andy Burnham probably knew he didn't have many cards to play? And therefore it's Wes playing nice because probably that's he has no other option. I reckon he's been promised nothing.
35:23Lewis Goodall:Yeah. Someone told me it felt very unlikely that he's been promised anything because he doesn't have the numbers.
35:27Jon Sopel:And so, you know, what is... I guess we'll see when the jobs get done. Is it Chancellor or is it Lord Privy Seal? Yeah. We'll see. We'll see. Exactly. I think I think it's exactly the latter. And I think that Wes pissed off an awful lot of his colleagues. Actually, when he did the interview with you, Lewis, and talked so openly about what was happening in Cabinet. And, you know, although it was accurate, people felt it was premature to be doing that and would sow further division. So Andy Burnham has got to work out what it is he wants to do. I was with somebody at the weekend who was, you know, used to be very senior in the Treasury saying it's very good.
36:04Jon Sopel:The sort of stuff that he is doing now, like he's talking to Richard Hughes, who was the former head of the OBR. And, you know, and there is somebody who's a proper grown up and knows about the economy. And will Andy Burnham, and I think this is a really interesting question, feel constrained or bound by the election manifesto of 2024? or does he feel he can say you know what i didn't stand on that manifesto i'm now the prime minister um the triple lock that costs huge amounts of money would send a brilliant sign to the markets that we're prepared to do not have such this costly policy around our neck i'm going to scrap the triple lock which a lot of people are advising him look he's got jim o 'neill the ex-girlman sachs
36:46Andy Burnham:banker in his ear and the one word that you keep on hearing is be brave right if if andy burnham is the answer to Keir Starmer, then presumably his policies have to be the answer to incrementalism. In other words, he has to come in and do something. And as you say, I think there have been voice in his ear saying the triple lock would send out a signal straight away, A, because it saves you 15 billion straight up, right? That's the kind of money that would actually be quite useful for a budget, for example. B, because it signals that you have gone somewhere that is meant to be a sort of totemic sacred cow.
37:22Andy Burnham:And C, because you actually make every young person in this country, and it doesn't have to be that young, they could be sort of in their 40s, go, oh right, it's not just about, you know.
37:32Lewis Goodall:Honestly, I think that the chances of him touching the triple lock are zero. I mean, I think that they will look at what happened with Winterfuel, which was taking 300 quid away from some of the richest pensioners in the country and the political backlash that generated. I mean, if you're talking about the triple lock, which, you know, the state pension in Britain is relatively not that generous by comparison to the European countries, but certainly triple lock has proven expensive. And you start with that, I would be absolutely amazed.
37:58Andy Burnham:But the weird thing about the winter fuel was actually, I mean, most people in retrospect think it was not a stupid thing to look at. They just think it was mishandled. Which comes down to the whole question. And we had this in the focus group, I think I mentioned it last week, that I remember one guy saying, it's not that I need a personality, but I need a communicator. Between Reeves and Starmer, they never had anyone who could tell a story or could explain their policies. I think the winter fuel came out of nowhere and, as it turns out, disappeared back into nowhere. So all the people saying it was a terrible policy were the same people who then said, oh, but they should have stuck with it.
38:34Andy Burnham:What you've got to do is explain why you're doing something, do it, make the case for it and explain where that money can then go. That's the story that you tell when you come into office. That's the one that wasn't told.
38:44Jon Sopel:I wonder what Andy Burnham does. I mean, Lewis, to your question, what's he going to do over the next three weeks? There are so many big issues. I mean, you look at some of the briefing that was taking place over the weekend about Ed Miliband. And because the suggestion being that he might be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer. And you have the markets and the CEO saying, oh, my God, no. You know, remember that whole predator producer stuff from when he was the Labour leader. And then you have the unions. GMB and Unite say oh my god no no you can't make him Chancellor of the Che Guevara
39:17Andy Burnham:can you see Ed Miliband as
39:18Lewis Goodall:Chancellor? I can't I think with the internal opposition now from GMB and Unite I think it would be very very difficult
39:24Andy Burnham:but I also think it has to be somebody that Andy Burnham can basically hand over the numbers to but not feel that he's in constant opposition to so I think I mean the West Streeting Burnham presumably sets up a kind of personality clash because you don't want somebody who wanted your job
39:40Jon Sopel:I think a political clash as well
39:40Andy Burnham:right I mean that's what I mean political personality you've got two pretty bright lights there both trying to shine i i wonder if it's a sort of healy character which would make a lot of sense you know john healy steps back from defense you know can't get the money for that but actually is seen to be pretty loyal it seemed to go back into lockstep behind a leader i mean that's not a stupid idea but these i mean we're
40:04Jon Sopel:putting all these names to things what we don't know is where andy burnham stands on any of these big policy questions which are the central ones about you know what where does he stand on net zero where does he stand on increasing defense spending what does he want to do about the you know the debt levels in this country and what where does he want to raise money from and until you get into foreign yeah that's before you get onto yeah how do you deal with ukraine how do you
40:26Andy Burnham:deal with nato how do you deal with the eu completely i think we've got a nato summit coming
40:30Lewis Goodall:up in two weeks time i think i think what we will likely see at least in the short term and it may well be that he can't resist it in the end like starmer couldn't because the world's on fire but I think in the short term, we're likely to see Burnham being far more domestically focused than Starm was. So I think his choice of foreign secretary will end up being quite important because they'll probably end up being more prominent than perhaps Starm's ones. Who knows? Maybe he'll keep Yvette Cooper in place. Although that said, I don't think there's any love lost between the two of them.
40:54Andy Burnham:Or you send Wes into foreign and get him on a plane as quickly as you want.
40:57Lewis Goodall:Possibly, possibly. But I mean, look, there is no end of jobs that Burnham owes to people. More than Wes Streeting. You know, there's a lot of people who've been helping him in his campaign from inside the parliamentary Labour Party and outside. People like Lou Haig, for example, Annalise Midgley, people who've been absolutely central to his campaign.
41:14Andy Burnham:I would bet on Josh Simons coming back as chief of staff. Well, at number 10.
41:18Lewis Goodall:Yeah, I mean, we should just say that we should say I mean, like whatever we think about it. And I think there are potential long term costs for Burnham in it. But I sort of use this word advisedly. The heist that has been pulled by Josh Simons and Burnham is something to behold. I mean, talk about fortune favouring the brave. I mean, this was a guy, Burnham, who was basically, after the Labour Party conference, completely written off after a series of missteps. He's then blocked from standing for Gorton and Denton by Starmer. And again, everyone's just like, how the hell? He keeps trying to get back into Parliament.
41:51Lewis Goodall:It doesn't work. And then through seizing the political moment and through sheer political force, frankly, forces the Prime Minister to exceed, well, has a resignation, and unnecessary resignation of by-election. He pays no political price for it, which lots of people thought that he would. Lots of people thought that the people of Makerfield would say this was game-playing and whatever. Runs a cracking campaign. Basically forces the Prime Minister, who is the leader of the Labour Party, to send resources, his own cabinet ministers, his own MPs, to oversee a contest and take part in a contest which will remove the Prime Minister from his own job.
42:29Lewis Goodall:and does it in such a way that he wins on the Thursday and the Prime Minister's out by Monday. Whether you like it or don't like it, it is an extraordinary act of politics. And the one thing I'd say is it is extraordinary now. There is a danger if things don't go well, though, that it does leave a bit of poison in the Labour bloodstream. Because believe me, there are people in the Labour Party right now, Starmerites, they still exist. They're still there. They're bruised today and battered today, but they'll still be there in the years ahead. They owe nothing to Burnham. They feel they owe nothing to Burnham because they will say that we owe the same sort of loyalty that Andy Burnham and his people show to us.
43:04Lewis Goodall:So if things don't go well, let's not forget that Burnham does not have even the legitimacy that Starmer had of running, of having his own mandate and winning a general election. In fact, he wasn't even an MP for that general election. So things could poison quite quickly if things start to fall apart.
43:22Andy Burnham:Add into that the fact that he's already slagged off the last 40 years. So that includes pretty much the whole of the Brown legacy, the whole of sort of Ed Miliband trying to win it from opposition as well. The one thing I'd say is that we're always told that local elections are about local issues. You know, when you're covering for the BBC, when you're covering local elections, remember, it's about potholes and bins. And to some extent, that has to be, you know, the way in which you approach these things. But I would say the local elections, 2026, were weirdly the closest we will get to a general election in those terms, because that's the data.
44:01Andy Burnham:That's where Andy Burnham's looking. And it actually reminded me more of Theresa May in 2017. Do you remember? She was still just about in control of the party, but not really. that was what it did for her. The fact that she lost her majority in 2017 put her into the same place that Keir Starmer was, I think, in 2026. He was in charge. He was the PM. But basically, the election results had said already it was game over. So I do think that's the only bit that I would say from your analogy that we've sort of skipped over. That data was what gave Burnham the impetus to say there's nothing left here.
44:45Andy Burnham:There's no one, there's no place in the country. You know, to your original question, where would you go to celebrate today, Keir Starmer? Where would you go? There was no place in the country that felt like a Starmer stronghold. And at that point, I guess, he was kind of walking into it.
44:58Lewis Goodall:I think there are two things. We sort of danced around it. But in terms of kind of like the reason anyone sat here today might be wondering, look, this is now my fourth News Agents episode with a PM resignation or the seventh, or we'll have the seventh PM in 10 years. There are other reasons for that. You're right, Emily, I think Brexit obviously destabilised our politics, particularly for the Tory years. I think the reason, the structural things that Starmer, I think, has been unable to deal with politically, and by the way, that Burnham is now going to have to deal with politically, they're going to be exactly the same, is that I think that, you know, I think Starmer would still be there, and this goes to your point about the locals, Starmer, I think, would probably still be there if we were still in an era of two-and-a-half-party politics and reform the barbarians, as they would see it, weren't banging at the gates.
45:42Lewis Goodall:You know, if this was just the Tories doing well and you know it was a more traditional thing. I think Labour would be less spooked. You just say it's the midterms. Yeah, Labour would be less spooked and they'd be less worried. But because it's reform and because we've got this fragmented politics, you know like if you think back to Harriet Harman was saying this on my Sunday show yesterday, you know she was saying that look, the new Labour government for example, they made tons of mistakes. Tons of mistakes, they're all completely forgotten now. Many of which would only be on the sort of same level of some of the mistakes that Starmer has made.
46:09Lewis Goodall:But what they did, what they had what they had in their favour was a defeated opposition i.e their main opposition the Tories had recently been ejected from office and this is true of all other governments we've had recently with an opposition party that had recently been defeated and therefore they weren't legitimate you know there was nowhere else to go they were they were vanquished what Starm has had to deal with has had to deal with is an unvanquished opposition i.e reform who are there as a natural alternative. They haven't been in office recently and that has been something new for Starmer to deal with and something he has proven unable to deal with, despite the fact that he himself said as I said, that that was the sort of essay question of politics right now.
46:50Lewis Goodall:And I think the other structural thing and Starmer, Burnham will definitely have to deal with this. You talk about Brexit destabilising our politics and I think that's true. I think Covid has destabilised our politics profoundly in the sense that and not enough politicians talk about this, what is one of the reasons why this government has struggled, particularly in the face of the bond markets, is because we're so indebted. And one of the reasons we're so indebted, yes, some of it is a financial crisis, some of it is Brexit, a lot of it is COVID. And what would a normal Labour government probably have done if it started to get into trouble a little bit?
47:23Lewis Goodall:It would have turned the spending taps on. Now, I think Reeves and Starmer kind of did that probably more or less to the maximal extent that they could, but they couldn't go much further. And they have not been willing, and many British politicians aren't willing to turn around and go, you know one of the reasons we're in trouble right now or we can't get the public services in a better condition right now? It's because the state paid your wages for the best part of two years. And that has left us with a big debt backlog to try and overcome. And guess what? Burnham is going to be in exactly that position as well.
47:52Lewis Goodall:And it's difficult for a social democratic party.
47:54Jon Sopel:I think they're going to have to redesign the cenotaph for Remembrance Sunday now because you have all the ex-prime ministers lined up.
48:01Andy Burnham:We need the Excel centre, don't we?
48:02Jon Sopel:Yeah, we need the Excel Centre for all the ex-Prime Ministers that will be lined up there. I think we've now got nine living ex-Prime Ministers and there'll be a tenth who will be the serving Prime Minister, presumably. They're also young as well. I know. Incredible. Soon that's going to be there in the 2060s.
48:15Andy Burnham:We'll just start rotating them again now.
48:17Jon Sopel:Yeah, we'll be back in just a moment.
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49:04Jon Sopel:So before we go, what does my local MP do next? And my local MP being one Sir Keir Starmer. Because, I mean, yeah, he could do the Theresa May thing and the Rishi Sunak thing and stay in Parliament until the next general election and decide what he's going to do then. Or he could do the David Cameron, Tony Blair thing and just say, you know what, guys, I've had enough of this. and that would be a by-election that Labour would absolutely hate to have to fight in Camden because the Green Party are strong and doing pretty well there. Well, I mean, if he wants one final fuck you to Andy Burnham,
49:46Lewis Goodall:this would be it. This would be it because he would, as you say, John, he would set up very early in the Burnham premiership, he would set up a by-election in Hoban and St Pancras. Look, it's a rock-solid Labour seat, should be on paper. But Zapolansky has talked in the past about standing against Keir Starmer in Hoban and St Pancras. Given their local election performance in the borough of Camden, they would fancy their chances. And it would be an early test case of whether an Andy Burnham-led Labour government could do the same thing that Andy Burnham in the great market town of Makerfield has done, which is able to corral and bring together the progressive vote.
50:32Lewis Goodall:And whether you can do that outside of a contest where basically you're running as Andy Burnham yourself rather than Labour Party. And where, frankly, reform would be nowhere because, you know, we can predict a few things in modern politics. But I think it's fair to say that reform's chances of storming Hobart and St Pancras is quite slight.
50:51Andy Burnham:Yeah, I mean, it could be one big fuck you from Andy Burnham, actually, to Keir Starmer, if he can win his own seat again for Labour. Well, that would be sweet revenge. It's interesting, YouGov saying today that with Andy Burnham announcing he does intend to stand for the leadership, 19 % of Britons say they'd be more likely to vote Labour if he became Prime Minister. I mean, that is astonishing. If the party think they can rely on a 20 % boost, then they are not going to have very many qualms about what has happened over the last 72 hours. That said, I don't think Keir Starmer will go anywhere.
51:29Andy Burnham:I think he does still have a sense of duty. He has said that he will be at the side of whoever comes next, happy to advise all the rest of it. Maybe that's just what you put into the nice speech. That's fine. but I wonder whether he will want to actually stick around, do a Rishi, be gracious, stick around, do your thing, not leave your constituents and actually feel part of the project in some shape or form for a bit longer.
51:54Lewis Goodall:Chairman of the FA, anybody? Is that job coming up, John?
51:57Jon Sopel:I can see that. Well, it depends who wins the World Cup. If we win the World Cup, then, you know, Kirsten would be delighted. No, I spoke to someone last night because there's been this theory going around that one thing that could happen is that Andy Burnham becomes Prime Minister and then says to Keir Starmer, do you want to be Foreign Secretary? And I spoke to someone last night and said, not a chance. Not a chance. There is such bad blood between them.
52:19Andy Burnham:I have to say, the names that are coming in at the moment for Foreign Secretary include Keir Starmer and David Miliband, both of whom don't seem to me to fit with anything that Burnham has just told the party about how annoyed he's been with the last 40 years of Labour. Right? So I think he has to find some new people at this point.
52:37Jon Sopel:We will be back tomorrow on the latest twist and turn in this extraordinary drama. Bye-bye. Bye for now. Bye-bye.
53:13This has been a global production.
From the publisher
And just like that, Keir Starmer became the sixth British prime minister to resign in ten years - triggering a leadership contest it’s increasingly likely no one will enter. Wes Streeting has pulled out of the race. Andy Burnham is arriving at Parliament where he will be sworn in as MP. If there is no challenger, he could be PM in just over two weeks' time. Is this the most perfect heist in political history? Does Starmer have a right to feel aggrieved? And does Burnham have an actual plan?
The News Agents is a Global Production.
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