The test that will define Keir Starmer

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0:44That isn't completely true. You'll be amazed to hear that sometimes the Tories can be a little bit boastful. In fact, it's the Welsh Labour Party. Not only have they come first in every general election in Wales for pretty much a century, Since the creation of the Welsh Parliament in 1999, there has only been one party in charge. One party that has won every single time, occasionally with a little bit of help from Plaid Cymru. And that is Welsh Labour. They are titanic in Welsh politics. They have been an unstoppable force. Even when Labour nationally in England, in Scotland, has been up and down, in and out of power, Wales and the Welsh have always remained true.

1:31But that run might be about to come to an end. In 2026, there will be elections for the Welsh Senate. And currently, Labour isn't first in the polls. It's not second in the polls. It's third in the polls, behind Plaid and behind reform. It is the job of Elinid Morgan, the Welsh First Minister, only in post for about a year to stop the unthinkable from happening and to keep Wales red. We've come to Cardiff, to Cardiff Bay in the magnificent Welsh Senate building, welcomed by the First Minister to talk to her about her political journey, how she's got to where she is, her vision for Wales, her fears about what might happen next and her relationship with Keir Starmer, Westminster and the rest of the union.

2:19Welcome to the News Agents.

2:26The News Agents. Well, First Minister, thank you so much for welcoming the News Agents to the wonderful Senedd building here in Cardiff. Creuson. Thank you very much. Overlooking the Bay. Beautiful day. Let's talk a little bit about you, because for many listeners, for many viewers outside of Wales, you're perhaps not that well-known. You've only relatively recently assumed the office. Tell us about yourself. Tell us about your background. Tell us about why you got into politics. So I was brought up on one of the biggest councilising estates in Europe, just outside Cardiff. and about 30 ,000 people lived there and my father was the vicar on the estate.

2:58Oh really? And lots and lots of people used to be, we had an open house and there were loads and loads of kids coming into our house all the time and the church was really the centre of the community so everything happened around us and what I recognised growing up there was that actually there were people there who had amazing abilities but they just weren't getting the life chances that other people were getting and so that kind of really motivated me my father became a councillor in the era he later became leader of the council so our house became center of political activity so we used to get a lot of people coming to our house so you know three former first ministers used to hang out there quite a lot of the time Alan Michael and Roger Morgan and Mark Drakeford Mark Drakeford was my youth worker so it was very political household but it was the fact that there were people there who were talented, who were able and weren't getting their life chances.

3:52That's what really motivated me to get into politics. Strong history in Wales of Christian socialism, of Christianity being important to the Labour parties. Your Christianity is your religion. Is it important to you and your politics? Yeah, absolutely. And just in terms of the kind of moral values and where, you know, what is guiding you, then, you know, I'm very much kind of love your neighbour. That's where I'm at. And I think that's central to my belief. And I think that is important. But it's for me, it's more about making sure that you you extend your warmth and your generosity to people around you, irrespective of the background.

4:27Was it always Labour? It was always Labour. So absolutely. And, you know, on that council housing estate, Labour was the only party in town, really. And it has been, I mean, in a metaphorical sense and a literal sense, in a way, certainly since the creation of this institution. and we're talking about the contemporary political scene. I mean, Welsh Labour's run in office since its creation in the late 90s. I mean, during that time, you think about what's happened nationally. You know, Labour's obviously been in and out of power nationally, was almost destroyed, had a near-death event in Scotland.

5:00I mean, we'll return, and yet Wales has returned Labour time and time again. And we'll come back to the problems that might exist coming up in a minute, but just sort of taking a step back, reflecting on that time. I'm interested why you think, being steeped in the Welsh Labour Party as you are, why philosophically, politically, the Welsh have maintained that link with Labour when much of the rest of the country is frayed and decayed and gone and come back and gone again. Why do you think that is? Well, I think a lot of it is to do with our industrial past and what created us, what made us as a nation.

5:34That's true of parts of England and Scotland as well. It is, but I think what we've done in Wales is we've wrapped ourselves in a Welsh flag as well. Welsh Labour, you mean? Welsh Labour has wrapped ourselves in a Welsh flag. So people have associated Welsh Labour with the Labour Party with being Welsh. And that has been something that has stuck for a very, very long time. So I think they didn't do that in Scotland. And I think that has differentiated us. And that is something distinctive about Welsh Labour, as you say, by comparison to Scotland and even maybe in England to some extent where the Labour Party kind of struggles with Englishness.

6:11Labour in Wales have not struggled with Welshness. No, we haven't. We're really, really proud of being distinct. And what's important for us is that we remain on that distinct path, that devolution exists for a reason. It's supposed to reflect the needs of the local population. And, you know, we've been really fierce advocates of the fact that we need to reflect and to prioritise what's important for our nation. You know, it's quite interesting for me on the Labour Party membership card, it says nation first. And what's interesting, of course, is that my nation is perhaps different from the nation that the majority of people in the Labour Party belong to.

6:50Is that difficult? Is that difficult to navigate? It's certainly not difficult for me. And I think that's what's important is that I am being true to what it says on my membership card. It's just that my approach is always going to reflect my nation first rather than the UK as a whole. And do you feel, you obviously feel Welsh, you feel British? I do. I'm very proud to be British. You don't see a contradiction between those two things? I absolutely don't. You know, we're comfortable. I'm really comfortable with multiple identities. I was comfortable being a European as well. What do you think is the biggest difference?

7:20Let's just, before we're going back to the politics, I'm just interested. What do you think is the biggest difference between the Welsh and the English and the Scots? Look, I think there is that sense of community. I think we all, you know, we're really, we know each other. You know, we're a small nation. There's three million people here. We're much closer to the public. I mean, it's just fascinating to watch the difference, for example, between the way we're held to account here compared to Westminster. Now, I served as health minister here for a few years. You know, I was literally expected to know what was happening practically on every ward.

7:54They wouldn't expect that in England. There wouldn't be an expectation. But that closeness to the public, I think, really helps and matters. And philosophically, politically, what do you think is the biggest difference between England and Wales? I think we are more comfortable when we're reflecting those community values of solidarity, of quality, of the kind of things that have held our communities together for many years. So, as you say, as we say, you know, Labour has had this extraordinary run in Wales, but we are where we are. There are elections next year, 2026. One poll the other day showed that Labour is now in third place behind Plaid and reform.

8:38Why? Why do you think that is? Well, there's lots of things going on. Obviously, you know, being in power for 26 years takes its toll. It's a long time. And we are there up until now, the most successful political party in history, in the world, Democratic Party. So, you know, we have had a really good run. I'm hoping that that run is going to continue. it's always more tricky when we are in power both in Westminster and in Wales as well so that brings with it benefits but it also brings challenges well maybe it's that voters sense that you've had 25 years I mean what can you possibly do in the next five years that you haven't already done that you haven't had the ideas to do well the world changes all the time and you adapt to the world and what we've done in Wales is that we've adapted and adjusted to the new reality.

9:30Well maybe voters can see that Wales is lagging economically behind the rest of the UK still the gap between Wales per capita GDP and the rest of the UK continues to be substantial public services are in a state it's been overtaken by parts of Europe that wants poorer than it maybe voters just thinking why do we keep doing the same thing over and over again and expect a different result. Well Well, I think what's important is that there's also recognition that there are huge benefits that they have accrued to the people of Wales during Labour's time, which people today, you know, they're just there for them.

10:03Like what? Well, things like free prescriptions. You don't have those in England. The fact that we have a£100 care cap in Wales for domiciliary care, the fact we pay real living wage to care workers, the fact that we're in a situation where you get free bus fares for the over 65s. All of these things are things that people, you know, they're just there for them and they may be gone. Those are all political choices. And clearly we are challenged in some areas, but we do have a demographically older population. An older population goes with sicker populations. So, yes, we're always going to be more challenged when it comes to how we manage health challenges, for example.

10:42But the fact is that in Wales, let me just give you a sense of the scale of what we're up against. We have 2.7 million appointments in the NHS every single month in a population of 3 million people. I mean, this is an incredible service. In terms of your position in the polls, do you attribute it more to what Labour's doing in Cardiff and Wales? Or is it more about the national scene? Look, I think it's probably a mixture of both, if we're honest. I think there are some things in the recent past which haven't helped us. I think the winter fuel allowance, that was really tricky for us. Was it more than tricky?

11:21Was it toxic? It was really difficult. I mean, it was something that, you know, I spent the last summer going out doing a listening exercise around Wales. And that came up time and time again. Same thing on the welfare reforms. Those, again, really difficult for us, disproportionately impacting people in Wales. Have you been tearing your hair out about these things? And I've been making it clear to the UK government that these are things that are very, very difficult for us and that things need to change. And I'm really pleased now that they have responded. What do you think it says about the instincts of Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves that they allowed this to happen?

11:56What I get is that they're really keen to get the economy on a stable trajectory. I get that they were left with a really difficult legacy. But I think the focus being so much on the economics that they've forgotten the politics. You think they've forgotten the politics? Well, I think they've got time to adjust to get in the politics back online. I don't have that luxury. We've got a year to get things back on track. Do you think they're too technocratic sometimes? Well, look, I think some of the things they've done have been remarkable. I think things like the fact that the minimum wages has a significant increase, that's helped 150 ,000 families in Wales.

12:35So that's a massive difference. The fact we've had the biggest uplift in the history of devolution in terms of our budget means that we've been able to give above inflation pay rises to the 300 ,000 people that work in the public sector. But I'm just intrigued by your description just now that sometimes they've forgotten about the politics. One of the criticisms of Keir Starmer and indeed Rachel Reeves is precisely that that people make. They say that this is, particularly with Starmer, that he isn't political enough. He isn't thinking about the politics enough. So I'm just wondering whether you think he has that sort of bit of technocratic rule to him.

13:06I get what they're doing. They recognise that if you don't get the economy on track, that you can't invest in the public services in the way that as a socialist you are keen to do. It's just that you have to make sure that people understand that narrative, that they go together. What's your relationship like with him? It's fine. It's great, actually. Yeah. I mean, I see him fairly frequently. But, you know, I'm a straight talking kind of person. I'm very clear with him in terms of the challenges of where we're at and what I think would be helpful for us in Wales. And to be fair, they've delivered on some things, but I'm always going to be asking for more.

13:42That's my job. Will you be inviting him to come and campaign with you next year? Well, he's more than welcome. Yeah, especially if you bring some goodies with him. That would be very helpful. You think he'll be an asset on the campaign trail? Well, I think if they are able to continue to step up in terms of delivering the additional funding. So they've helped, for example, to put more money on the table to help us to restore the coal tips, for example, that have been, you know, threatening people's homes and stuff. We asked that of the Tory government for years and years and years. But you think on the campaign trail in Wales next year, you think Starm will be an asset?

14:19You'll want him there, two of you together campaigning, saying, look, this is what Labour can do. Look, I mean, let's be clear, I'm going to be heading the campaign and it's going to be a Welsh campaign. Yeah, he's the Prime Minister of the United Kingdom. I'm the leader of your party. And I'm the First Minister of Wales, and this is a Welsh election, not a UK election. Of course, he'd be more than welcome to join me on the campaign. But what would you be asking him? Look, there are examples of where we want to demonstrate how that additional help and support has helped communities. So I'd be more than happy, for example, to take him to some of those mining communities where we are fixing the coal tips, where people have benefited from the miners' pensions funds, which we fought for for years and years and years.

15:04Starmer's delivered that. So definitely in those scenarios, it'll be really helpful. You said you're losing patience with Labour in Westminster. What do you mean, you're losing patience with what? I mean, if you're losing patience with them, surely the voters of Wales who you're asking to endorse your party, it is the same party ultimately, might think, well, why should I put my cross in the box for that when my own First Minister is losing patience with that lot in Westminster? Well, that was following on from the Red Welsh Way speech that I made, which tried to make it clear that we will do things our own way in Wales.

15:34There has been this suggestion that we lean into the kind of partnership in power. And I'm happy to do that, but we need examples. We need more firm examples of where that partnership in power is actually helping us. And since I said that, we have seen further examples. We've seen additional funding for rail, for example, that we've been asking for for years and years and years. it's a step in the right direction we're definitely getting more than we got out of the conservatives well indeed you i mean you talked about your speech and you've talked about the idea of the red welsh way so let's talk about a few ways in which you might sort of put a bit of distance between yourself or there may be political differences i mean wealth tax everyone's talking about that at the moment you're back at wealth tax lord kinnick suggested it the other day so i'm on record as saying that i would like the people with the broader shoulders to shoulder more of the burden.

16:21So I'm a big fan of Neil Kennock. So you'd be happy for Rachel Reeves to say, you know, people with big estates in Wales, lots of assets, you'd be happy for the Chancellor to tax them. So look, it's obviously going to be Rachel Reeves' decision. Of course. But, you know, one of the things in Wales is that actually we don't have these massive disparities of Wales because we don't have people in that£10 million bracket that Neil Kennock is talking about. Is that a good thing? That there aren't richer people in Wales? No, I'd love there to be a lot more richer people in Wales. So that we can. Might put them off if there's a wealth tax.

16:53We wouldn't be doing it in Wales alone. There's no question about that. I won't be raising taxes in Wales ahead of the elections or if they do it in Westminster. That has an impact on us. They basically raise the vast majority of our taxes. I'm just confused because you say you want a wealth tax but at the same time, you also want lots of richer people in Wales. I'm just wondering how those two things are congruent. Well, look, I mean, we wouldn't have them in Wales without having them in the UK. That would be a British wealth tax. just to be clear. Child benefit cap. Government is now saying that it can't change the child benefit cap as a result of what happened with the welfare bill and the changes to personal independence payments.

17:29Do you accept that? We've been consistent in terms of our concerns around the two child benefit cap. This is a Tory initiative. And we were critical of it then. And we're being consistent in being critical of it as it continues. Would you like the Prime Minister to lift it, to change it? So yeah, of course we would. But I think the prime minister would like to lift it as well. Well, except now they're saying that they did want to, but they can't as a result of the changes to personal independence payments. So I'm just asking, do you see a connection? Do you accept there's a connection between those two things?

17:59Because lots of Labour MPs don't see that connection. What I see is that money is tight. I get that. And you need to make tough decisions. Rachel Rees is going to have to make some tough decisions. Would you like them to prioritise that in the autumn? I think it would be beneficial. But obviously, she will then have to make some decisions on where to get that money from. And I think the suggestion of going down a kind of wealth tax route wouldn't be a bad idea. And what would that wealth tax look like? What would you like to see it look like? Well, I think starting from the kind of, you know, Neil Kennock premise of people who earn over 10 million should be making a greater contribution.

18:34I think - So that 2 % idea. Well, I think that would be somewhere to start. I recognize you've got to be careful that people may leave the country and all those kinds of things. So you've got to make some difficult decisions. But, you know, I think you have got to, first of all, identify where the wealth is. Should the Chancellor look again at her fiscal rules? Are they hemming her in? What I recognise, you've got to be really careful in terms of the international markets and how they respond. And when we've got high levels of debt, we've got to find the money to pay off that debt. And if you start messing about too much, then your interest rates go up and then you'll be in a difficult place.

19:10I don't know if you saw Prime Minister's questions, but in it, Prime Minister refused to rule out the idea of freezing tax thresholds where they currently are. Now, there'll be, so this is the idea of fiscal drag. There'll be a lot of people in Wales, you say that not many that a wealth tax would apply to. There will be a lot of people in Wales who over the years in the Tory government, they saw themselves dragged in to higher rate tax brackets. These aren't wealthy people. These aren't people who are earning loads of money. They'll often be struggling just to put food on the table, or at least certainly to live any kind of decent life.

19:37Do you think that the government ought to really reconsider that, that you would like to see ensure that those thresholds are being uprated every year? I think there are lots of options and that's not the only option. I think you've got to look at all of the different options that are available. I don't have that whole gamut of options in front of me. That is something that the Chancellor does have at her disposal. Do you think those thresholds should go up? I would be more comfortable with looking for where the very rich are able to make a greater contribution. So you wouldn't feel comfortable with those thresholds being frozen?

20:14Look, I don't know what that would mean in reality in terms of how much income you would get in. So I think you'd have to be very, you just have to do the analysis very carefully. But it would mean, of course, that people who are not currently in the, say, higher rate tax ban, 40%, they would find themselves paying it because the thresholds are frozen. So I'm just wondering, are you comfortable with that? Well, I've told you that my preference would be to go for the super rich. There will be people in Wales, of course, who are treated in the NHS in England, and you'll have seen that junior doctors are going on strike again.

20:46This will, of course, be a worry to, as I say, people who are treated in England but who live in Wales. Do you think the government should settle that, should give them the money? You've managed to avoid many of those same problems yourself in Wales. Yeah, but it's always tricky, and we've always got to get the balance right between the numbers of people we need in the NHS and the money we can pay them. So we've seen a massive increase in the number of people working in the NHS. so of course you know these people deserve to be well rewarded and you know there's going to be 10 million shortage of health workers in the world so people are competing for these people so we have got to try and keep people with within our health services so obviously I would like to see them settle but you know that's an issue for England but we try and keep a really tight relationship in particular with our trade union colleagues here in Wales so that we we're with them every step of the way and just to be clear you know we're the only part of the United Kingdom where we have a social partnership law which means that we have to engage with them early on so that we try and avoid these situations.

21:50Talking about the Red Welsh way and something that animates many people on the left and it will in Wales not just people on the left either is the situation around Gaza. Do you think the government's done enough on Gaza? The frustration around Gaza is really fathomable here. There's people are really, really upset. There were protests here just the other day, didn't you? Absolutely. Outside the Senate building. Absolutely. And, you know, there is a lot of frustration here. You know, I've made it clear that I'd like to see Palestine recognised. I think that we do need to put pressure on Israel.

22:24And clearly we're concerned about what happened on the 7th of October and those people who were kidnapped need to be released. but there's been a massively disproportionate response, I think, from Israel. Do you think war crimes have been committed? Well, look, I've been listening to Helena Kennedy, who's responsible for assessing whether genocide has taken place, and she has made her statements clear on this as well. So you have no doubt this is genocide, do you? I have now moved to a position where I believe that we're now witnessing a genocide taking place before our eyes. And I was very reluctant to go there because the threshold has to be very high.

23:03There has to be specific intent for genocide. But what we're now seeing is genocidal behaviour. Do you agree with her? Well, she's the legal expert rather than me. So you would agree with her? You would defer to her? Well, I think you've got to defer to experts in these circumstances. So I'm concluding from that, First Minister. And I think it is really important because people ask, I mean, they ask us all the time, I'm sure they ask you all the time. I'm concluding from that that you do think that war crimes have been committed, perhaps up to and including genocide? Well, look, I think we've got to listen to the experts.

23:35And I think, look, international relations is not a part of my responsibility. But it is a real concern to the people of Wales. And I've made it very clear that we want to see an end to a situation where innocent people are effectively being starved. That is something that is massively troubled. Do you understand why there are so many people who do think genocide is being committed? Do you understand why they think that? Even if you're not a legal expert, neither am I. So perhaps we can't adjudicate. But nonetheless, you understand why so many people have that concern. Look, you just need to watch your screens on tally at night and see lots of innocent people suffering and having no ability to change the situation.

24:19And the international community effectively being locked up from seeing what's going on. So, you know, I do think this is an important moment for the international community and for all of us to raise our voices. Do you think the Prime Minister's done enough? Look, I think the Prime Minister's gone further than people have gone before. As far as you'd like? I think the pressure... I just think you've got to just keep on putting the pressure on, piling the pressure on. I know he's monitoring the situation very carefully. Right, we will be back with more from the First Minister right after this.