Tony Blair on why Britain and Labour are in crisis

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1:02Jon Sopel:This is a Global Player original podcast. It doesn't really matter what Donald Trump says in relation to Britain. The question is, what's the right answer for Britain? So Ed Miliband is a quixotic fantasist. Xi Jinping's not sitting there in Beijing saying, I wonder what Ed Miliband thinks. The person that Keir Starmer turned to to become an advisor was Gordon Brown. I say to people in politics, the easy thing is to say yes, the hard thing is to say no. If we're going to pursue clean energy and spend a lot of money doing it, there's got to be a pretty good reason, and there isn't one. That is Tony Blair, who for the past two years has maintained a Trappist monk-like silence on British politics.

1:46Today, that changed.

1:48Jon Sopel:Born of frustration, anger, irritation, desperation, and depression about the state of the Labour Party, about the state of our politics. We have an extended interview with him. Welcome to The News Agents.

2:09Jon Sopel:The News Agents. Well, we're joined on The News Agents now by Tony Blair, him in central London, me in central Sydney. There we are. Now, Tony Blair, you've pointedly chosen to stay out of British politics for the past two years. What has changed? Were you at your wits end? Well, what's changed is that it's very possible we now make the seventh prime minister in 10 years. So it's a pretty serious situation. If we're going to change prime minister again, and I'm really worried that we've got this the wrong way around, that we're talking about the politics first and the policy second, and it should be the policy first and the politics second.

3:01So the first thing we should be debating is what's the right answer to the country's problems? And, you know, my institute's been producing a lot of work on this and I've finally just decided I wanted to set it out, what I think has gone wrong and what I think is necessary to put it right. So wit's end is about right? Well, wit's end, but certainly I feel really anxious that we are continuing to slide towards relegation, as I say in the essay, relegation from the Premier League of Nations. And we've got to halt that. And we can only halt it by starting by understanding how the world's changing and where Britain fits in that, both in terms of its foreign policy and its domestic policy.

3:46And what I'm saying in the course of the essay, which is something I've been saying for a time, but I put it in a bigger way in what I've written, is we're living through the 21st century equivalent of the 19th century industrial revolution is going to change absolutely everything and we're not prepared as a country to shape ourselves in response to that change and if we don't we're going to continue our slide so it's trying to set out a different analysis of what's gone wrong and how we put it right with the policy prescriptions to match

4:22Jon Sopel:leave aside the preparedness of the country i mean what is so striking about the argument that you're making now is that it is the preparedness of the party that you once led, where you were once prime minister, where you're absolutely scathing. The Labour Party is playing with fire or more accurately with its future and that of the country. What does that mean by playing with fire? Well, the Labour Party was elected to govern in part in response to all the instability of the Conservative years. We're not even two years into the government. We're already thinking of changing the prime minister.

5:00And we're thinking of doing so in very much the similar way that the Tories did. It's like shuffling the cards. You take one prime minister, you throw them out, you get another prime minister, you throw them out. We can't carry on like that. And so what I'm saying to the Labour Party is, first of all, you've got to work out what the direction of the country is that you want. And then you can debate who should be leader. But there's no point in making a leadership change until you're satisfied with the policy direction. And in many ways, what's happening at the moment is the absence of a real policy debate.

5:33And so far, the contributions of, you know, and I praise Andy Burnham and Wes Streeting. Indeed, I praise Keir. You know, look, these are people, I understand that they're good people. They're trying to do their best. But there's no point in deciding on the basis of personality who leads the country, unless you understand what's our project for governing, what's our purpose in governing. And that, to me, is just not clear at the moment.

5:59Jon Sopel:But here we are in 2026. It's, you know, quite a while since you were prime minister. We now have the attention economy. We now have the internet. We're personality and being able to tell a story and create a narrative does matter. And look, if you go back to 1994, when you became the leader of the Labour Party, part of the reason it was you rather than Gordon Brown was because you could tell a story you were a good communicator and those things do matter yeah look yeah of course you're absolutely right they they do matter but they don't matter as much as the right policy I mean I could have been the best communicator in the world but if we hadn't been new Labour we would never have won three successive full terms of government in the Labour Party's 120 year history it has never won two successive full terms of government except under new labor.

6:47And that was because there was a project with a philosophy behind it, which is essentially to fuse what I call the labor and liberal traditions of progressive politics. So yes, of course, it matters. You're absolutely right. It matters the personality, your ability to communicate and so on. But if the project isn't a good one, well thought through, it doesn't matter how good a communicator you are, you're not going to succeed.

7:13Jon Sopel:Can I just ask you this, your relationship with Keir Starmer, when was the last time he sought your advice on policy? Well, we've spoken over the time he's been Prime Minister. I don't know that he really has sought my advice particularly on policy, but obviously my institute's been producing papers on policy. And look, I try to be frank in the piece I've done about the policy disagreements. And though I think Rachel Reeves has done a really good job actually on macroeconomic stability, and we should praise her for that, she's had to put her tax and spending policies around labor commitments that I just don't think are suitable for this moment in time when I think Britain's got to prioritise economic growth and prioritise preparation for this artificial intelligence revolution.

8:06Jon Sopel:I mean, you say there hasn't been clear thinking about what the project is. Isn't it more the case that there has been thinking they just don't go along with new Labour or the third way or whatever you want to call it? And it was very striking that after the local council elections and those shocking results for Labour, that the person that Keir Starmer turned to to become an advisor was one Gordon Brown, not Tony Blair. I think you're right in the sense that this government is not in the position that New Labour was. But what I'm trying to say to them is, given that we have to accept that the Labour government is in difficulty, I mean, after all, we're talking, as I say, less than two years into the government and getting rid of the prime minister who won the last election.

8:54so I don't think anyone can argue the position of the Labour Party is not serious there's not a problem so I agree they're not in the new Labour position but what I'm saying is a modernised view of that which is what we put forward from the Institute is what I call the radical centre ground of politics and that is the best place for Labour to win next time and what I'm saying is we should at least have a debate about this before we yet again as a country change our Prime Minister.

9:23Jon Sopel:so on a certain number of policies i i kind of can't help thinking that kirsten you know digital id welfare reform closer relationship with the european union those are all things that you've talked about uh in your essay um the problem the problem is that he has got a rebellious parliamentary labor party who don't want any of the kind of things about welfare reform where there may be uncomfortable choices. And maybe when you were prime minister, you had a much more pliant Labour Party with people feeling they owed you a much greater debt of loyalty for having got elected. I'm not sure about that one, John.

10:00I mean, it's not, I mean, I think, first of all, by the way, I have met a lot of the backbench MPs, indeed some of the junior ministers. You know, I met a lot of them over the last year, two years. I think there's a really talented intake. I think the problem is they need to be given a clear direction that corresponds to the magnitude of what people want today. And one of the things I try and say in the essay, I mean, I agree. I actually say there are areas of the government policy I agree with very much, including the ones that you mentioned. But what I'm saying is today what people want is they want radical change.

10:41The difficulty, as I point out of the essay, is that too often today the radical people aren't sensible and the sensible people aren't radical. So what you end up with is a situation where you've got a radical right wing group in reform or even the people further to the right of them. And then you've got a radical left in the Greens. And Labour and the Conservative Party are still in, I would say, in rehab from both of their political mistakes over the past 10, 20 years, with Labour chasing after the left, resulting in the Corbyn leadership and the Tories ending up owning Brexit.

11:16Jon Sopel:You've bemoan the psychodrama that is engulfing the Labour Party right now and the leadership jostling and whether Keir Starmer is going to be brought down. um i'm just interested about why you didn't write this letter privately to keir starmer to west streeting to anti burnham because if you look at the headlines today that you've created a damning assessment the mail a devastating attack the sun a scathing attack the guardian starmer has no plan for britain the telegraph and on and on isn't this feeding the psychodrama no it's it's in the end And there is, whether it's a psychodrama or not, you can debate, but it's definitely a moment of crisis for the country.

12:02And, you know, what I think and hope the essay will contribute to is a debate about what the direction of the country should be. And I mean, that can't really be done by private missives. You've got to get out there and, you know, look, I don't particularly want to be back in the headlines again. I find it very comfortable to be out of them. But it depends how serious you think the country's position is at the moment. And I'm looking at it objectively and thinking, well, this thing has got to we've got to change direction. Otherwise, we're in real trouble, not because the Labour government's not full of decent people, but because without an understanding of the way the world's changing and how Britain fits with that change, you can't really make progress.

12:44And you're going to continue this slide.

12:48Jon Sopel:Yeah, but going back to the Parliamentary Labour Party, you've got a whole bunch of MPs who came to power in 2024, probably thinking they were there for only one term, probably thinking they were going to have to go back to their public sector jobs or charities where they came from or whatever aid agencies and the like. And so you get Keir Starmer standing up and say, we've got to have welfare reform. And they go, whoa, there is a problem of governing right now, isn't there? Yes, but you see on welfare reform, I know a lot of Labour Party people will be not in favour of what I'm about to say, but the Conservative Party made an offer at an earlier stage that they would cooperate with Labour on welfare reform.

13:30We should just have accepted that offer. Said, fine, let's sit down and work it out together. And then Keir Starmer could say to his, those MPs, and by the way, there are a lot who do believe you need welfare reform. Don't think they're all of one mind on that. Yes, there are people who hook and to rebel. I had people who were rebelling all the time. But it would give him some protection against those people. And I think the country would frankly welcome the possibility of people sitting down together and saying, as you have to say, if you look at incapacity disability benefits and the rise, the explosion in benefit spending, and a lot of that now driven by almost half or maybe more than half by mental health issues, you're going to end up in a situation potentially where at the end of this decade, you've got 5 million people of working age on incapacity and disability benefit.

14:20You can't afford that as a country. And then you've got a triple lock on pensions in circumstances where you're going to have a demographic challenge in the future. And, you know, that's adding more billions and billions of pounds of spending that someone's got to pay for. So it's not like you're not engaged in this welfare reform debate because you're a cruel person. And you've just got to look at the facts and think, aren't people who are at work at the moment paying enough tax? The answer is they are, but they're going to have to pay even more if you're going to continue with those levels of spending.

14:52Jon Sopel:More from Tony Blair coming up.

15:00Jon Sopel:From a range of trusted voices and award-winning journalists. Good morning, I'm Nick Ferrari. It's time to get to your calls. Find out the latest news and hear every side of the story. So just as I take responsibility for the results, I also take responsibility for delivering the change that we promise for a stronger and fairer Britain that we must build. Nah, he's still toast. He's just wasting our time now. The words of two in a growing list of Labour MPs whose patience with the Prime Minister has run dry. Is there anything he said or can say to make you want him to stay? Listen on our free Global Player app or the LBC app.

15:36LBC. Leading Britain's conversation. Are you trying to get weight loss support through telehealth, but it feels overwhelming and rushed? Check out orderlymeds.com now. Orderlymeds.com was built to be different. Here, you connect with real doctors who take the time to understand your goals, review your eligibility, and guide you through a plan that's right for you. Orderlymeds provides access to proven GLP-1 medications like semaglutide and terzepatide, including both name brand options and personalized compound versions when appropriate. So you have choices backed by clinical oversight, not guesswork.

16:13It's a simpler, more supportive telehealth experience designed around people who want clarity, care, and confidence in their weight loss journey. And your medication is delivered directly to your home in discreet packaging. So your experience stays private from start to finish. Do your research. Ask the right questions. Then visit orderlymeds.com slash podcast for an exclusive offer. Again, that's orderlymeds.com slash podcast. Individual results may vary. Not medical advice. Eligibility required. See site for details.

16:48I'm really struck listening to you by the idea that, you know, your argument throughout this

16:54Jon Sopel:essay is that we've got to put policy first and politics second. But what you're describing a lot of the time is, you know, when you're talking about how you need to win over the backbenchers and how you need to make an argument, is that actually Keir Starmer is really lousy at politics. Well, it's not just about the explanation, though. I mean, I could give you a good explanation or a bad explanation, but the policy does matter, no? I mean, I agree with you that, of course, it's how you're able to lead people, how you're able to challenge them. Because as I always say to people in politics, the easy thing is to say yes, the hard thing is to say no.

17:37and you know one of the things I've also try and say and I say this to any political leaders I've worked with is that one approach to politics is you try and find out what the people want and give it to them and that's how a lot of British politics has been these last years but actually that's not leadership. Leadership is working out what the people need and persuading them it's what they want. It's a different thing and we would be in a much better position if you did the latter, if you worked out what you thought the right answer was, and then shaped the politics around it.

18:11Jon Sopel:I just want to read you this from your essay. The essay contains a series of policy proposals, or a manifesto, and you say, the new workers' rights laws, the net zero acceleration and phasing out of the British oil and gas industry, the uplift in the minimum wage beyond inflation, and the nom-dom changes have given headwinds, not tailwinds, to British business, despite the macroeconomic gains for which the Chancellor is rightly praised. I mean, is there anything there that Kemi Betonok or any conservative politician would disagree with? They might agree with most of that, actually. But so what?

18:48I'm not sure that they agree with the other bits of it, particularly around things like digital ID and the importance of the AI revolution. But I don't really mind whether people agree. It's not a question of what political party you come from. The question is, and for me, this is absolutely central. For example, if you take the workers' rights stuff, I understand the argument for it. We introduced a lot of things for workers' rights when I was in government. We introduced the minimum wage. but right at this moment in time when business is going to have to adapt to this ai revolution that will be enormous in its impact you want to be given business all the help you possibly can and when it comes to net zero i'm not a climate denier and i'm not against clean energy great you should have more clean energy but around the world today countries including the three biggest emitters in the world china america india account for over 50 of emissions they're all going after clean cheap energy and electrification so if if we're going to pursue clean energy and spend a lot of money doing it there's got to be a pretty good reason and there

19:57Jon Sopel:isn't one well ed milliband i'm sure would turn around and say well hang on we want to be leading the world in clean energy well you you you wince as i say that Look, Xi Jinping's not sitting there in Beijing saying, I wonder what Ed Miliband thinks of our policy. It's in the end, of course, renewable energy is going to be the future long term. But by the way, with artificial intelligence, you may well get developments in nuclear fusion. You'll get developments in battery storage. There's a whole new world that will come down the track at us. But right now, our energy costs are really high. They're imposing costs on business.

20:45We've got this artificial intelligence revolution that's going to use more and more energy. We need more electricity if we're going to go for electric cars, which, again, we should do. And therefore, all I'm saying is the lens through which you judge policy should be cheap energy and electrification because that's the way the rest of the world's doing it. And it's a sort of quixotic fantasy to think that because Britain's decided it's going with, by the way, under 1 % of global emissions is going to go down a different path at huge expense. It's quixotic to think that the rest of the world's going to follow that.

21:22It's not.

21:23Jon Sopel:And it isn't. So Ed Miliband is a quixotic fantasist. Well, the policy, I'm not saying Ed. Look, you know, I wish these people in government well, but when you adopt a policy like that, you've got to be sure that it fits with your circumstances that we are facing here today. And it's not that you shouldn't get to net zero over time. Of course you should. But we've just got to realize we are spending billions of pounds a year at the same time as we're raising taxes. We're spending billions of pounds to accelerate that transition in circumstances where the rest of the world has got a different priority.

22:09So for that policy to make sense, you've got to have a very, very good reason. on any basis, including the government's own figures, we're going to have a requirement for fossil fuel up and through 2050. Right. Probably 13, 14, 50 percent of our energy will continue to come from fossil fuel. I don't understand why you'd shut your own fossil fuel industry and import someone else's. So it's not that I'm saying in the end, you know, we should be. I'm not going sort of in the end. It's all about fossil fuel. I don't care about renewables. I'm denying the climate reality. No, it's just about a transition that's got to be managed with some common sense view of what industry and the consumer and the country needs at this moment in time.

22:57Jon Sopel:And that, of course, is the view that Donald Trump has expressed to Keir Starmer many a time. I mean, Donald Trump is obviously a decisive figure in world politics right now. Well, go on. What did you want to say? I just want to say it doesn't really matter what Donald Trump says in relation to Britain. The question is, what's the right answer for Britain? Anyway, carry on. You were about to hear that. OK, well, what was the right answer when Donald Trump said, can we use British bases to refuel our jets when they were attacking Iran, despite the fact that there had been no congressional approval, nothing had gone to the United Nations?