Will Trump and Putin carve up Ukraine – then blame Zelenskyy?

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0:58This is a Global Player original podcast. some back. We're going to get some switched. There'll be some swapping of territories to the betterment of both. The swapping of land for the betterment of both? Ukraine is the one giving away land, not Russia. So how can it be good for Ukraine? There is a growing suspicion that this Friday summit between Putin and Trump is going to agree something that Volodymyr Zelensky could never accept. And if that's the outcome, what happens next? Welcome to The News Agents.

1:42The News Agents. It's John in London. And it's Lewis in Las Vegas. Sorry, where? I'm in Las Vegas, John. Blackjack is a hell of a game. So it says that Las Vegas is the ultimate adult playground, an uncensored paradise lined with streets of casinos, resorts and endless nightlife options. What did you do last night? I didn't sleep. For all the wrong reasons, I'm afraid to say. No, in all seriousness, look, I mean, as tempting as it will be to spend many an evening at Caesars Palace over the next couple of days, I mean, it is actually 6.30 in the morning here, so the chances of my being able to sustain that feels limited at this time.

2:20We're here actually properly because there is the world's biggest, North America's biggest, AI conference is getting underway. It's a huge, huge event. And AI is a story that we wanted to explore in a little bit more detail on the show for a long time. We've talked about it, Joel. We've talked about it on the show. I felt for a long time that the way that AI is covered in much of the media, the British media anyway, is sort of so superficial. It sort of either goes to, oh, my God, it's going to change all of our lives because we're all going to have an AI doctrine. It's all going to be brilliant.

2:48Or potentially, you know, it's going to be the apocalypse. So we're trying to do a bit of reporting where we want to show how profound these changes already are in North America, because we're behind the curve of it in UK and Europe, particularly on the economic front. And sometimes we talk about it as if like, oh, AI, it's going to take all of our jobs in five years or 10 years or whatever it happens to be. This transformation, economic transformation, is happening right now. Huge layoffs in all sorts of industries across North America. It's a story that we're going to be exploring this week and bringing you reporting on over the next couple of weeks on the show.

3:21As well as the blackjack, of course. If it had been in Scunthorpe, would you have been as keen to go? Hey, bad choice, because I've actually, unlike you, John Sopel, done some reporting for the show in Scumthorpe, if you recall. So, yes, swivel on that. As they say in Las Vegas. Quite. Well, let's talk about what's happening on Friday in Alaska, in Anchorage. No doubt you'll be wangling a flight up to Anchorage very soon to be reporting from there. No, no, no, no, no. I would never do that. I would never take advantage of the situation. kind of the most extraordinary thing that trump has agreed to meet putin putin seemed to want the meeting it looks like i don't know that they're going to get together carve up ukraine between themselves and then say to zelensky are you accepting this and if zelensky says no trump will say well you just want this war to go on and on like he did when the two of them met at the White House.

4:16It looks like there's very hard to see how anything is a win for Zelensky that comes out of this. Yeah, it is. I mean, look, Vance, the vice president, is still briefing that they are trying to set up a meeting. They would like to see a sort of tripartite meeting between Trump, Putin and Zelensky. Whether that's the thing that's going to take place in Alaska, we're still not entirely sure where in Alaska it's going to be this Friday. Whether that's that meeting or a subsequent meeting, don't know. Clearly, this is exactly the thing, you know, big picture, whatever they discuss and whatever the outcome of things on Friday, and we can discuss actually how it's hard to see what those outcomes are likely to be.

4:53But whatever happens, this is a net loss for Zelensky, a net loss for Europe, the thing that they have feared and tried to fight against and to try and ensure that it didn't happen all through the course of the year, ever since that, you know, the terrible, fateful blow up meeting that there was, of course, in the Oval Office. And it has to be, whatever happens, a net win for Putin, right? This is what Putin has wanted to do from the beginning, something that he has been frustrated and irritated that Biden would not allow him to do. And up to now, Trump has not allowed him to do, which is sit down with, as he sees it, the other great global boss of the international power system.

5:33Sit down as if it were the Yalta conference in 1945, and he's Stalin, and Trump is Roosevelt or Truman and sitting down and carving up the world as they would like to see. That is exactly the vision of great power politics that Putin subscribes to, that he wants, that he wants to move to, and what Trump, no matter what happens on Friday, what Trump is gifting him with a meeting with the US president for apparently no concessions or nothing in return, at least as far as we can see at the moment. You talk about Putin and the vision. With Trump, It's about the visuals. And Trump will love the idea that this is happening in Alaska.

6:12There'll be the big handshake, the Russian flag on one side, the US stars and stripes on the other. They will come together. They'll embrace warmly. They'll sit down. There may be a news conference afterwards. And, you know, the remarkable thing from the first term was just how little came out of any of this. So, you know, Trump had the summit in Helsinki with Putin. Trump gives a news conference afterwards and then has to apologise and walk back everything he said the next day because he had so infuriated the Republican Party. He goes to Singapore to have a summit with Kim Jong-un and then another one in Vietnam.

6:48Nothing comes out of that either. It all collapses and there is no news conference. And Trump sort of says, oh, well, we couldn't agree anything. So the tendency is that there is too little planning strategically psychologically of what the negotiation is and what we're aiming to get out of it. And the Sherpas will have done very little work on either side. Well, I think on Russia, they'll have done a huge amount because they know how to play Donald Trump. And at the end of it, you fear and feel that Zelensky will be screwed by whatever it is that comes out of it. And I think you're right. I've seen John Bolton already saying today that this is a victory for Vladimir Putin before either of them has left, one has left Moscow and the other has left Washington.

7:30Yeah, well, you've got to think about the longer context since the start of the war, haven't you, John, which is to say that it has been American policy and Western policy to put Vladimir Putin and the Russian state into the deep freeze, to isolate them, to not engage with them, to remove them from the international financial system, the international diplomatic system, at least as far as the West is concerned. You can argue about how successful we've been at that. But nonetheless, as far as the West has been concerned, he and Russia have been pariahs. What Trump is choosing to do is to reverse, to change that longstanding policy which began under the Biden administration and to welcome him back as a legitimate player of the great power game.

8:12Right. Just the fact that they are meeting sends a signal to the world that as far as Trump is concerned, the U.S. president is concerned, he is not beyond the pale. Bear in mind that, of course, if Putin, a bit like Benjamin Netanyahu, if Putin chose to travel to any European power, he'd be arrested. There is an international criminal court warrant out for his arrest as the same for all of the cronies of his murderous regime. Trump is basically, in one move, absolving him of all of that and sending a signal that he is worth talking to and he should be talking to. And of course, at some point, Russia is there, is going to have to be a negotiation and the US is going to have to be involved in that.

8:51But the card that the US had and the card that Trump had was that visual that you're talking about, that conference of legitimacy. And as far as we can see, apart from, as you say, the venue being in the United States, which Trump will love. And, you know, Putin has wisely and gamely worked out that it's basically something that he can give Trump for almost nothing in return. Trump has got nothing as far as we can see in terms of all of the pre-briefing that has come out of the White House over the course of the weekend. And tempting as it is to say, well, this is purely about Zelensky and the Ukrainian people and what they might lose after that unprovoked invasion in February 2022.

9:29It's wider than that because it's about the world order. It's about the right of sovereign states to exist within their own agreed borders, something that Russia had previously accepted Ukrainian sovereignty, even when Vladimir Putin was the president of Russia. You can imagine that if Donald Trump is saying, yeah, yeah, I mean, you can keep the land you've taken. President Xi in China is going to be thinking, oh, Taiwan looking nice now. You know, maybe we can go there and we'll have no trouble. and authoritarian autocratic leaders who feel that they've got some power will be thinking right that bit of land that i've always coveted it's now open season the un is going to do nothing america is going to do nothing america is not the policeman anymore it's the enabler it's worth considering where this leaves us and europe right because we have had i mean you know european powers likely to be whether ukraine is involved in this or not seems unlikely but i think we can say with some certainty that European powers are not going to be involved in this.

10:32I mean, they barely appear to as if they're being consulted by the White House. You've got the French government, you've got Macron, you've got the British government, Starman, you've got the German government with Mertz sort of bloviating a bit and sort of saying it's very, very important for European governments to be kept at the table. I have to say that my sympathy with European governments on this is limited, not in substance, because obviously, clearly, morally, politically, culturally, economically, militarily, it would be absurd and outrageous for European governments who would likely have to be at least a sort of part guarantor of whatever happens, whatever deal is hammered out.

11:04So it's ridiculous in one sense. But then on the other hand, you know, John, we've known the direction of travel of the White House since before the election and certainly since the Trump-Zelensky blow up in the Oval Office. Yeah, relations have thawed a little bit since then, but nonetheless, we've known that this is a White House that wanted to cut a deal and wasn't much bothered about what European powers thought about that deal. We've had, what is it, you know, five months, six months since that blow up. What has Europe actually done concretely to both prepare itself and Ukraine or come up with an alternative strategy?

11:36Now, you might say that that is basically impossible without the Americans full stop. But as always with European governments, there is a hell of a lot of warm words and solidarity and bloviating about how important European security is and this, that and the other. But when it comes down to it, the strategy has stayed the same, which is let's hope that the Americans actually sort of do the right thing after all of the other options have been exhausted, which is typically our strategy, right? That is clearly, I think, been wrongheaded for a long time. And I don't think we can be surprised that this has happened because it has been on the cards for a long time that at some point Trump would want to meet Putin.

12:10Putin, we know, is playing Trump like a fiddle repeatedly. And it's not surprising that we're at this point. Yeah, I mean, there's something extraordinarily transactional, it seems to me right now, about the US approach to it, where you kind of get the impression that the Americans say, OK, Europe, if you want to kind of keep on arming Ukraine, that's fine. Buy our weapons and give them to Ukraine. But don't expect us to pay for it. So, yes, American arms manufacturers will continue to do very well after the war continuing. It's just that the Americans aren't going to pay for it. Listen to J.D.

12:47Vance in this interview he gave to Fox News. What we said to the Europeans is simply, first of all, this is in your neck of the woods. This is in your back door. You guys have got to step up and take a bigger role in this thing. And if you care so much about this conflict, you should be willing to play a more direct and a more substantial way in funding this war yourself. I think the president and I certainly think that America, we're done with the funding of the Ukraine war business. We want to bring about a peaceful settlement to this thing. We want to stop the killing. But Americans, I think, are sick of continuing to send their money, their tax dollars to this particular conflict.

13:25But if the Europeans want to step up and actually buy the weapons from American producers, we're OK with that, but we're not going to fund it ourselves anymore. We know basically at this point what the outlines of this so-called deal would be, right, which is basically Ukraine, of course, this is the Steve Witkoff proposal, Ukraine basically giving up, if not officially, but in all but name, giving up and ceding control of at least three to four regions of eastern Ukraine, freezing the front and freezing the border in a facto sense where it is at the moment. That poses a profound problem for Zelensky, because although there is evidence now, there's lots of polling which does suggest that weariness in Ukraine towards the war, completely unsurprisingly, you know, three and a half years in, has never been higher.

14:10There is more support now than there has been before for a negotiated settlement. But nonetheless, there is far less support, according to polling with the Ukrainian public and electorate, of Ukraine unilaterally ceding territory without getting anything for it in return. And so far, it seems from the contours and outline of the deal in terms of security guarantees, in terms of putting in mechanisms to ensure that Putin can't just go home for six months and 12 months and come back again. It seems that Ukraine will be getting very little in return for allowing the ceasefire to come in where it is at the moment.

14:43Yeah. And that is a huge problem for Zelensky. And also, how do you sell it to the Ukrainian people that Russia is done? You know, what guarantee would you take from Vladimir Putin saying we now respect Ukraine's sovereignty? And then all the questions about whether it can join the European Union, whether it can join NATO will still be rattling around. And with the threat that Russia could come back again in a couple of years time, because previous undertakings from Russia about the territorial integrity of Ukraine have proved absolutely worthless. And just based on previous behaviour, you'd be stark raving bonkers to accept any undertaking from Vladimir Putin right now about the future security and independence and sovereignty of Ukraine.

15:35Well, I think you have to view this Alaska summit in the kind of context of everything we've seen, in particular since the Oval Office showdown between Trump and Zelensky, which is basically since then, what you have seen from both the Russians and from the Ukrainians is an intense set of diplomatic efforts to try and win in the court, not of public opinion, but of Trump opinion, i.e. there has been a blame game going on or a very intense effort by both sides to try and win the spin war as to who is to blame, which side is to blame for the fact that there isn't a ceasefire, which is what Trump desperately wants, right?

16:14And you've seen over the course of the last six months, the kind of, in Trump's mind, and, you know, as always with Trump, so much of this plays out completely in the public sphere, which sort of tapped into his kind of stream of consciousness at any given moment. We've seen Trump kind of oscillate between the two sides as to who he blames. So obviously, initially in that showdown, it was very clear that Trump believed that Zelensky was the one. He didn't have the cards. He was the one who was gambling with World War III. But obviously, since then, the broad trajectory has been one where we've seen and heard Trump's thinking evolve to start to think that maybe Putin is responsible, right?

16:46He said it's disappointed by Putin's actions. He's called Russian bombing of Ukraine's. It is disgusting. He's mused aloud as to whether he's tapping me along. And what this is it seems to me is Putin's latest attempt to win that blame game because he can go to Alaska He can present the deal and say mr. President, you know We've come to a deal you and I am with Steve Wyckoff and so on now if the Ukrainians don't accept it It's their intransigence So it seems to me that this is this is part of that Long-term blame game and that dance between the two sides and he can say, you know, mr. President We've got this deal.

17:22We've negotiated with Kof. And if the Ukrainians won't accept it, then the blame is on them. And he will hope that Trump, therefore, just washes his hands of it, that there will be no more aid forthcoming. And Russia can continue to make the small but nonetheless significant territorial gains and advances on the front that they've been doing over these last months. I suppose there is a chance that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump don't reach agreement. and Trump at the end of it says, I'm very unhappy with the way Vladimir Putin has approached this. He's not serious about peace. We are now going to impose the series of tariffs that Congress has drawn up in reserve.

18:01We're going to accept that legislation and we are going to hammer Russia really hard. I would say the chances of that are probably about 1%. I think 99 % it's going to be that Trump and Putin will agree something that is just a frigging nightmare for Europe, and in particular for Ukraine and Volodymyr Zelensky. Well, consider what he's on the verge of being able to do, right? What was the background to this last week? Trump was going to impose heavy sanctions, he said, on Russia. That apparently now has evaporated with the prospect of this summit. He's got his first invitation to meet with the US president on American soil for a decade.

18:40He's able to do that about Ukraine, but without Ukraine being at the table. And potentially, if Trump was to accede to the deal that Wyckoff has hinted at, then potentially Putin will be able to gain land that he doesn't even currently possess and that he wouldn't even have to fight for. Art of the deal, indeed. We'll be back in a moment with a former Russian prime minister who's fallen out with Vladimir Putin.

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19:41This is Ashley Akinetti from the Ben and Ashley I Almost Famous podcast. Ben, I've been reflecting a lot lately on how many big life moments our listeners have experienced with us. Yeah, it's pretty wild. They've watched us go from dating shows to engagements, weddings, babies, buying homes. Every stage comes with new decisions. The milestones are the fun part, but the planning is where things get real. That's why Klarna stands out. Klarna gives people smarter tools to help manage everyday money with flexible ways to pay, cash back that builds automatically, everything in one place, and support that makes everyday decisions feel less overwhelming.

20:22Since life moves so fast, the right tools can help you feel more confident. Download the Klarna app today or visit Klarna.com to learn more. California resident loans made or arranged pursuant to a California finance law license and MLS number 1353190. Clown a balanced account required to be eligible for cashback points. Limitations, terms and conditions apply. This is The News Agents. Well, let us speak now to Mikhail Kazyanov, former prime minister of Russia between 2000 and 2004, when Vladimir Putin was the president in 2006, re-entered politics to counter Putin's authoritarianism, ran for president in 2008, but was disqualified on political grounds and left Russia shortly after the Ukraine invasion and was put on Russia's foreign agents list in 2023.

21:16So someone who's fallen out with Vladimir Putin, but still watching very closely. Mikhail Kazininov, thank you so much for being with us on the News Agents. I wonder what you think is going to come out of this meeting on Friday in Alaska between Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump. I think within the last few days, it's appeared already clear, even for Americans, that upcoming scheduled meeting in Alaska, in Anchorage, would be useless. And I think just already Americans also recognize this. Mr. Trump will only try to convince Mr. Putin to agree on a ceasefire. Mr. Putin is not going. He has already just put on the table his terms and conditions, etc.

22:04Unacceptable for Ukrainians and unacceptable for coalitional willings, the whole European countries. That's why just we should not expect any fruitful results. I think it will play for Mr. Putin in his favor. So why then is Donald Trump doing it? I don't know yet, but I think he tries to undertake this attempt. Maybe there is an opportunity that the European allies will try to convince Mr. Trump not to do this, because it is already absolutely clear that there will not be a positive result. They will explain to Mr. Trump that it's not possible to sell Ukraine without the will of Ukrainian people.

22:42And the European nations also will not accept such concessions just to make a gift for Mr. Putin as a territorial, I would say, I would say recognition of his occupation just simply as a condition to ceasefire. That's not acceptable for Ukrainians. I was at the news conference that Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump gave in Helsinki in Finland during Donald Trump's first term as president and was really struck by how in awe Donald Trump seemed of Vladimir Putin. And given the limited goals being set for this meeting, it looks like something could repeat itself. History might repeat itself. Yeah, I think it could be the case.

23:29That's a little bit strange. I thought Mr. Trump already taken a lesson from that Helsinki meeting because he was criticized heavily in the United States and in Europe too for this interaction with Mr. Putin. It could really, I agree with you, it could be repeated. That will be not in Trump's favor. He wants a deal, but he will not get this transaction, but will get the criticism. People, the whole world, the European leaders, just all Russian democratically devoted people and Ukrainians, we expected just more pressure from President Trump, more pressure on Putin. But the situation turns, he will try to please Mr.

24:08Putin with this diplomatic meeting. meeting. Could be seen as very historical, but without any positive consequences. The narrative seems set that Donald Trump, for whatever reason, is in awe of Vladimir Putin. But does Putin have calculations to make? Is he worried about upsetting Donald Trump? That's exactly the point, John. Mr. Putin knows what Mr. Trump is about. And he knows that Mr. Trump needs as soon as possible that transaction ceasefire agreement. That's why Mr. Putin would like just not to make angry Mr. Trump, but to please him. But he's not prepared for any concessions. That's why that would be just not acceptable meeting will be no results, positive results.

24:53That's why it would be useless. So if Putin is not prepared to make any concessions at all, then it does seem a complete waste of time. Do you think that there are little things that Putin may offer as a concession that probably don't add up to much, but will allow Donald Trump to say, look what I've managed to wrestle from Vladimir Putin. This is a good deal. Vladimir Zelensky, you should accept it. That would be presented by Mr. Putin as exactly this case, but there will not be any concessions made by Putin. He last year, he make his proposals even tougher. He said just Ukraine should withdraw their troops from remaining territories of those four regions.

25:37He created this additional condition last year. Maybe, I don't believe to this, but maybe just maximum what he can do just to say, I will take out this condition. But he needs victory. But victory for him, that will be the total occupation of Donbass, two regions, Lugansk and Donetsk. Because when he started the war in February 2022, he explained this, I'm going to liberate Russian-speaking people in Donbass. But he didn't get Donbass completely. He'd like to achieve just the Donbass territory and its totality under his control. That's why he is demanding and will be convincing Mr. Trump just delivering lectures of Russia's history without Ukraine, etc., etc.

26:24He will try to convince Mr. Trump that his historically justified position just to take Donbass under full control. And with the expectation that Mr. Trump in return would be pressing Ukrainians just to accept this deal, because Trump needs a deal. I don't think that will work, but it is, of course, a great concern among many, many people that Mr. Trump could go this way. That will be, in this case, an awful situation. Do you think Putin? I mean, let's just assume that Putin gets that and gets an agreement from Donald Trump that that is what should happen, that Donbass is returned to Russia. Yeah.