Market Update - October 2025

0:00Hi, it's Tracey here from Property Hub. We know there's a lot going on right now. Interest rates, regulation changes, negative sentiment. It's a lot to process. So we want to know, how are you feeling about it all? Are you buying? Are you selling? Are you hiding behind the sofa waiting for it all to pass? We've put together a short survey to find out. It takes two minutes and it'll genuinely shape what we cover on future episodes. You can find the link at propertyhub.net forward slash survey to have your say. Hey everyone, it's Robby here with Rob D and you are listening to the Property Podcast, the market update.

0:36And we have house prices, interesting news from different regions, some doing incredibly well, some booming and some tanking. It's a real mixed pot with what's going on in the UK at the moment. But even more bizarre, we've got the government doing something really positive for the property market. I promise you it's true, it's not a joke. But then we have another party that seems to be doing something that is a joke, but unfortunately is not and we will report on it all.

1:07Yes, welcome to the Property Podcast. Thank you for joining us. In case you don't know, we run a business that buys more than£100 million worth of property for our clients every year. You can find out about that at propertyhub.net slash invest. And of course, that means we need to keep up with everything that is going on in property. Luckily, that means in turn that you don't because we round it all up for you, give you your monthly dose of everything you need to know as an investor, which is what we're about to do right now. Let's kick off this market update with house prices. And first of all, we'll get some data in from Zoopla.

1:34So what do they have to say? Well, they are saying that house price data is running at 1.4 % up until August 2025. And interestingly, they are saying that pre-budget tax speculation has hit activity for higher value homes and demand is down 11 % for homes priced at 1 million plus but I don't think this is just a budget thing of course that will have some sort of impact but this has been impacting the southeast I'm okay that Rob and I know very well because of all the years we've lived there and this has been something that's been going on for a lot longer I actually really think this started to kick in after the government went after non-doms because a lot of non-doms left the country now what type of properties do they buy well they aren't buying 200 000 pound detached houses in morcombe they're buying expensive homes in the southeast so that was kind of the first layer that went away then you've got stamp duty which is a constant but that again makes it prohibitive for people to be moving around in the one plus market because stamp duty at that level is the price of a house in morcombe it's really i don't want to pick it on morcombe here i don't know why that one's come to my head but it's just a bit cheaper than the southeast and also general sentiment sentiment this year has been really flat and do you have the courage to go and buy a house for 1.5 million 2 million plus i'm sure there'll be some people listening to this who won't really care because that's not the property level they're dealing at at the moment but there'll be many of you who are in that bracket who would if they move be buying a home at that level and you've got to ask yourself how do you feel about moving at the moment or the prospect of moving and it's probably the word feel is interesting because it's that sentiment point now the budget the pre-budget speculation is probably hurting that sentiment but i think it's a lot bigger than just one event that's coming up soon i think it's a whole series of events that have been playing for a while now that have really suppressed this market i agree you have got a few things going on at the same time you can't just blame the budget although i think it is unhelpful that the budget is happening so late this year.

3:38It's at the end of November. So we've got nearly two months to go still. And the speculation started a couple of months back. So that is, of course, going to make some people go, OK, well, let's hold off and see what happens. But I completely agree. That's not the only factor. Jumping ahead for a minute, there's a story about prices in prime central London, which has tanked, to use a word from this article. Prices there apparently 24 % below where they were 11 years ago. And that's nominal as well. That's not even after taking inflation into account and the annual fall in prices there 4.7 fell 1.8 in the third quarter and they are putting the blame at the feet of this budget speculation because of course everything there is going to be a million plus but again rob coming back to your point i think yes that is the case but obviously the non-dom factor a big one in prime central and then it's no surprise the report goes on to say how the north has been more resilient in terms of property prices compared to the south of england it all makes sense let's now move on to nationwide and they have data up till september so these numbers are really up to date and they're saying that over the last year up to september price growth is at 2.2 percent which sounds healthy but it's nothing to write home about i at least was expecting a slightly better year but i don't think the government's helped the property market this year at all maybe there's an episode on that in the future it's very similar to last month's data last month it was up by 2.1 so a slight improvement but nothing really nominal the highest performing area though they're not mentioning the north they're looking at northern ireland and it seems that northern ireland is just ignoring what's going on the mainland because house prices are up by 9.6 percent there a long time listeners to the podcast will know that we've reported the massive falls that northern ireland witnessed after the 08 crash from peak to trough it was a 50 percent fall but the interesting thing was it took the longest time for it to get back to those 08 levels longer than anywhere else in the uk and that's probably why house prices have done so well there because they were just punished so hard on the other side that it started to get some growth again and it's not just been this year it's been the last few years actually that northern ireland's been kicking on so it's its own market it's doing its own thing it's completely ignoring what's happening on the mainland and good for northern ireland they probably should ignore what's happening yeah the property boom is alive and well and living in northern ireland it seems the divergence is absolutely unbelievable especially when you break down the regions you see that's going at 9.6 percent the lowest region is the outer southeast which is 0.3 percent so hardly ever at all and london just 0.6 so you've got that massive divergence and even if you put northern ireland aside you still got that north south divide that you mentioned in the previous story this data bears out as well because the best performing region when you put northern ireland aside is the north of england which is growing at 5.1 percent so you've got this average growth of two and a bit, which is not very exciting, nothing-y kind of year.

6:24But it masks the fact that there are a couple of parts of the country that are doing really well, 5 % a year, we'll take that, and parts that are doing really pretty badly. And as we're loving our data this month, let's look at some data in from the ONS. And the ONS has reported that rents, private rents, are up by 5.7%. That's slightly lower than what it was last month by 5.9%. Now, the growth rate may have dropped but this number is still punchy it's way above inflation and it's a lot lower than it was a few years ago where we saw growth of in the double digit realm but still this is strong rental growth and it's not really being discussed at all interestingly northern ireland gets a mention again because their rents are up by 7.2 percent beating the average and the area in england with the highest rental growth rate is the northeast at 9.2 percent which is boom territory again, Rob.

7:18Anything that's close to double digits, you've got to class as boom territory. So rents are booming in the Northeast. An interesting play there. We've been doing a few deals in the Northeast this year with Property Home Invest because prices haven't really moved and they haven't really kicked on, but rents have. So the yield play in the Northeast is really interesting. Now, before you all start jumping on right moving super and picking up deals in the Northeast, remember, invest in the best. Don't just go and buy anything. Whatever area we recommend people always go and dive into those areas and start to pick up cheap stuff don't do that pick the best stuff it's particularly if you go into a more affordable area that's just a word of warning but it's an interesting market and one that we've paid more attention to this year probably than ever before at property have been best so a little bit of insight from what we're doing there it is interesting because for a long time prices were low but rents were also pretty low and so you're thinking well i'm not being rewarded in the way i'd expect to by going into a more affordable area.

8:17But now, like you say, because rents have had a couple of really good years everywhere, but particularly in the Northeast, suddenly the types of deals that we're looking at going, not that great, suddenly looking a lot more interesting. And of course, because property prices are relatively low, affordability is relatively good compared to pretty much everywhere else. At some point, you are going to get that increase there as well. When's it going to happen? We don't know. It's very easy to be too early, but you know that that's there at some point. The other interesting thing on rents, it's not actually in this ONS data but I've seen it from other data sources elsewhere is that at the moment so much of the rate of rental growth is being driven by existing tenancies.

8:52So if you look at new lets I said the rate of growth in rents for new lets has pretty much leveled off in a couple of areas it's even come down a tiny bit. It's kind of found its level after the madness of the last few years but renewals are still going up significantly. We've still got that dynamic where for years landlords were not really being very aggressive with their rates. I've already got tenant in there let's just leave it as it is. But then suddenly a combination of factors, mortgage rates going up being one and rental form being another, has made everyone go, hang on, actually, I should really get these rents up to market rate, either because I need to because of mortgage rates, or while I still can, scared of what's coming in rental reform.

9:31So I found that interesting because that's a reversal of the normal pattern. Normally, you've got the rate of rental inflation for new lets running ahead, but at the moment, it's quite the opposite. Rob, I've got a question for you. And I didn't know the answer until I'd read ahead in this news story. So it's not me being a smarty pants. I don't know what I would have said, but I think I would have been wrong. How long is the average property transaction in the UK? So if you're buying a home from saying, I want it, getting your offer accepted to completing, what's the average length of time? Hmm.

10:00I'm going to guess five months. Either you've read ahead or you're a lot smarter than me, but both could be true. Oh, am I right? You're right, Rob. You are a smarty pants. So well done to you. It is exactly five months. And I'm going to say I would have said the same if I hadn't read ahead just to make myself feel better. I am actually surprised it's that long because I thought maybe cash buyers may have reduced that time frame. Five months. That is ridiculous that it takes that long. Absolutely ridiculous. And part of that is the long process for convincing and mortgages because it takes so long.

10:35But also being part of a chain, of course. Maybe that's not something that impacts buy to let investors. much but it certainly does if you're buying a home. Now the government is saying they want to reduce that time and that's great to hear something positive being done about it and what is being proposed is there will be a pack put together where sellers and estate agents are required to provide buyers with vital information such as leasehold costs, change the people in the move, the conditions of the home and with the intention that this will end nasty surprises which result in last-minute collapses of transactions.

11:10Now the Housing Secretary Steve Reads made some big claims saying that this alone cost the economy£1.5 billion, that's collapsed transactions, which could be true. I think what he's trying to do is say that this will go a long way to stopping that. I don't know if it'll go that far and it'll bring that much money back into the economy, but what I do know is this is welcome. Anything where it makes the buying process easier is a good thing. I don't think many people are object to this. It's a bit more work to be done up front. But we are talking about homes here, Rob. It's not like people are going to buy their weekly shop.

11:44It's a big thing and having some clear, transparent information up front. Who's going to argue with that? It's great. Yeah, I don't see a downside here. They've had this in Scotland for quite some number of years now and things work better just from the anecdotal evidence I hear. Also, I don't have in front of me the average length of a transaction in Scotland but just going off memory it's definitely quicker it's definitely less stressful and that's because of having all the information up front and then also the fact that offers are binding you can't just pull out after months without penalty and that's something else that they're looking at introducing as part of these changes obviously this isn't going to happen quickly it's a consultation at the moment which will turn into this which will turn into that and eventually it will happen but because it's an area that frankly I'm surprised hasn't already been addressed because it's been so bad for so long and something that no one's really going to object to hopefully it will eventually happen it's not going to get derailed by a change of government or a change of priorities or anything else and eventually it will come to fruition because it really is to everyone's benefit to sort this out so we've got something positive it seems from the government there which is a rarity i'm pleased to be reporting on that but rob it looks like we're back right on trend with stuff that looks silly with the next headline which is scottish councils to be given power to impose red taps yeah and if you think this is silly wait to the news story after this one.

12:59But yes, this one in itself is not great news for landlords in Scotland, because the Housing Brackets Scotland bill, which has been going on for a long time, has actually passed now and is going to become law. And part of this involves imposing rent caps. Now, it's not a national rent cap, which is something it looked like it would be at some point. But it gives them the power to declare a particular part of the country a rent control area, which will allow councils to then limit rent increases to 1 % above inflation. But the controversial bit is they've specifically accepted a few types of property from this including the build to rent sector so any build to rent homes will not be subject to rent caps and it says in the article the reason for that is that they're concerned that rent caps on these properties could suppress house building which of course it would but by definition that means that it will suppress supply elsewhere in the market this carve out makes absolutely no sense on any level you can see why they've done it pragmatically but it kind of shows what this law is going to end up doing to the rest of the market why do we keep putting these people in charge and it's not exclusive to scotland it's like all over the country i mean fair play to labor on the last point but they've done some absolutely ludicrous stuff since they've been in power as well some of the things we report on are absolutely nuts but rob as you've alluded to already there's a party that wants to get in power that just seems to have like want to ramp it up to another level and i promise you this is not a delayed April Fool's story.

14:24I've checked the date. This is real. It's out on October 6th, this new story. And the headline reads, I promise you it reads this, Greens, that's the Green Party, vote to abolish landlords. Yes, abolish landlords at their party conference. So the Green Party want to get rid of landlords. And apparently, according to this new story, it's got strong support from the party where are the rental homes going to come from rob they're going to give everybody money to buy homes like where's the sense in this i mean i'm sure it will appeal to a few people who hate landlords yeah let's abolish them but where's the thinking after it i've asked chat gbt to explain to me where the rental homes will come from and it's talking about local councils being given money to buy properties from landlords but how's that going to work i mean we've been doing this a long time and we've seen some really really stupid things from political parties but this is next level if i can use a line from succession these are not serious people it's just absolutely mad i've actually got a video coming out soon on our youtube channel about what is the solution to the rental crisis and minor spoiler for that just outright abolishing landlords is not the answer the answer is having quality supply from lots of different sources and so much of it that you're not so reliant on private landlords but just getting rid of them without anything else to take their place yeah i don't know yes i guess from a political point of view it's signaling it's sloganeering it maybe it gets you the votes you want and then you do the sensible thing later once you've got the power but in isolation it yeah it's just daft it is daft it's daft on another level oh i could really just go on and on with this one but i won't it's very very silly green party you're being very silly but maybe not as silly as our producer dan as we move on to hub extra now now we asked us to say this was his a friend of his and he has full editing right so this may never get to the podcast we will see so but producer dan told us that when he was at the bus stop he likes to go on the you gov app and i didn't even know there was you gov app but and after taking the pee out of him for about five minutes for being such a geek we have decided we need to help him out now i'm sure it's a very good app and there's some interesting things on there and you apparently you can vote for things or whatever but we need to get down some better resources so we're putting it on you this week on our socials we'd like to know what apps books or whatever else should producer dan be doing while he's at the bus stop keep it clean people but we will put social posts out on this so go to property hub uk we're on all the social platforms check our posts there where we are asking you to help dan help producer dan at the bus stop he needs help he's resorted to the yougov app to entertain himself while he's waiting for a bus the world is such an amazing place in 2025 and yes there is some weird things that go on but there's so much goodness and there's got to be better than the you go vap rob yeah i applaud him staying away from social media and that's the thing isn't it the easy thing to do is to open up social media but let's say you're enlightened enough to know that that's probably not going to make your day better yet you're not enlightened enough to just sit there and connect with your breathing and the universe and stuff like that you need a distraction what is a healthy distraction for those two three minutes i would love suggestions on this we would and we will report back on the best ones in the next few weeks so do contribute do let us know and we will share the best of them on this podcast.

17:57You could be appearing or your social handle could be appearing on Hub Extra very soon. So do let us know. And I'm pleased to let you know that we'll be back on Sunday in the Sunday Times answering more of your questions there. Make sure you pick up a copy. And on Tuesday, we'll be back with Ask Rob and Rob answering more of your questions. And then the main event, the Property Podcast, back same time, same place next week. So until those momentous events take place, take care, have fun. Bye-bye. Bye-bye. you