Our 2026 predictions

0:00Have you ever wondered what successful property investors actually do? Well, after more than a decade of helping thousands upon thousands of people invest, we found that actually it's really simple. The investors who do the best are just following some basic principles and sticking by them. So we put together an entire guide that sums up these principles, an investment philosophy, if you like. And you can find that for free at propertyhub.net forward slash strategy. hey everyone it's robby here with rob d and this each and every year is our most downloaded episode because you want to know our predictions on what's going to happen with the uk property market where the best areas to invest are and also listen to a strain to areas that we have no knowledge about like bitcoin and the footsie and make predictions there as well maybe it's for a laugh maybe it's because you want good advice all that plus a very exciting club extra coming up

1:03Welcome to The Property Podcast. Thank you for joining us. In case you don't know, we run a business that buys more than£100 million of the property every year for our clients. You can find out about that at propertyhub.net slash invest. So it's time to make our predictions for 2026. And I'm feeling the pressure, Rob, because last year we did pretty well. You in particular did very well. So the bar is high. Are you feeling confident for this year? I am, Rob. It's all about that new year energy, of course i am feeling confident and especially after last year's performance so yeah i'm looking forward to this episode the great thing is this is the no pressure part it's making the predictions the terrible part is when we review it a year away from the consequences so now yeah that feels it's like eating a load of chocolate i mean this is the fun part right now making the predictions the end of the year is when i've got a look at the scales and see what i've done Well, let's start as we always do with house prices.

1:56This is the big one. Everyone is out there making their predictions for house prices. So before we get to us picking a number out of the air, let's see what the businesses with the teams of PhDs working away on this stuff are saying. Zoopla have not got that New Year energy. They think there's going to be 1 % house price growth this year. Savills, a little better, 2 % growth. Hamptons believe there'll be 3.5 % growth. But Capital Economics, they definitely got the presents they wanted for Christmas. They're in a great mood they believe there'll be five percent house price growth i love capital economics they are never boring with their predictions like the market is either down like double digits or it's going to go up by the most like they never play it safe never really right but they never play it safe at one point they will be right but i just love the boldness and i love that the fact that everyone talks about their predictions every year even though they never seemingly get it right they're a bit crazy and we like that but what do we say are you gonna go even crazier rob i don't think we can delay any more what are you predicting for this year i am gonna play it safe rob my first prediction is it'd be more than last year so last year was around two percent so i do believe it will be more this year i don't believe the negative sentiment will carry on throughout this year i'm not saying it's going to be spectacular but i think the fundamentals of property investment are going to be too obvious that people start to take advantage of it and with borrowing costs coming down we'll make our predictions on interest rates shortly but spoiler i think they're going to be down with borrowing costs coming down yields continue to improve i think the market will move up now of course investors only make up a small part of the market don't move it all themselves but it's the interest rates continuing to fall and house prices haven't grown in any meaningful way for a few years that means that i think more people will enter the market and i think the government will try to help more people move into the market as well maybe that is the most radical prediction I'm making today, the government helping people.

3:48But let me make a prediction. Enough waffle, enough delay. I'm going to say that the property market will grow in the UK according to nationwide by 2.5 to 3.5 % in 2026. So not the highest, but not the lowest from what everyone's saying. And I feel a bit ashamed that I'm kind of falling in line with what some others are saying. It feels a little safe, but that's where I believe it'll be. I thought you were going to go higher. I really did. I'm surprised. I'm surprised. But I don't disagree. I should say that we've each separately written down our predictions. We don't know in advance what the other one is going to say, but I did come to pretty much the same.

4:28I actually just put a straight 3%. So clearly we're both looking at the market in pretty much the same way. Certainly not a boom year by any stretch, but better than 2025 in terms of not just interest rates but surely sentiment as well surely sentiment can't continue to be so bad through the next year now let's move on to the area that we have performed incredibly well at over the years which is picking the areas that will perform the best in terms of capital growth each year and rob you rightly said in the review episode last year when we looked at our predictions that we should be pretty good at this because it's kind of our job to pick out the best places to invest so i I think that maybe we shouldn't give ourselves too much credit because it's what we're meant to be good at.

5:13It's like a footballer saying they're good at keepy-ups. It's kind of par for the course. But so let's make sure we keep that going. Let's make sure we stay strong. And Rob, because I went first last time, I'll give you the pleasure of going first this time. What are your predictions for 2026? Where do you see the strongest capital growth? Fair enough. So we're going to be judged by the HomeTrack Index, which is what we base our data on. And I'm stripping out any non-English cities. No offense meant to any of the other nations, but I'm sticking to what I know best because I really want to get this right.

5:43So for the top five English cities in terms of capital growth, I'm going Manchester, Newcastle, Leeds, Birmingham, Liverpool. Not necessarily in that order. I'm just trying to get as many of those in the top five as I can. So you're naming all top five. So that is the one to five. Wow. OK, you've been a little bolder than me. Hang on, hang on. That's not what I said at all. That's not what I said at all. I was going to say I'm going to try and get as many of those into the top five as I can. Well, how do we judge this at the end of the year? You can't say, well, I got one in. You know, what is success?

6:14I want to hold you to account here, Mr. D. What is success? All right, fine, fine. Four out of five will be success. I feel pressure now because I wasn't going to pick three out of the five, but I'll pick a four. Okay. So mine are Liverpool, Sheffield, Newcastle, Manchester and Leeds. and four of those will finish in the top five. So once again, Rob, we are incredibly close on our predictions. And I promise you, dear listener, we have not shared our predictions with each other before this episode. We are hearing it for the first time now. It is maybe encouraging or boring, depending on your point of view, that we've gone very close.

6:54But there is one difference, Rob. You put Birmingham in. I haven't, but I think Birmingham will be up there. And I put Sheffield in and you haven't. my reason for Sheffield is I think the yields are super strong I think affordability is very good so it reminds me a bit of Liverpool in that respect so that's why Liverpool made the list for me Sheffield similar echoes but I can absolutely see why you put Birmingham in there very similar to Manchester you know proper success story loads of money going in so I wouldn't be surprised if Birmingham is in there but at least we've got one difference enough to keep it interesting but I'm feeling very confident about this pick this feels like a good selection I can't see many surprises let's hope we're still feeling that confident in December.

7:34Let's move on to one that I am less confident about which is rents. Rents are actually finding difficult to call this year and I'll explain why in a bit but first let's hear what others are saying so we've got a couple of predictions on rents so Savills believe rents will be up by two percent Hamptons believe rents will be up by three and a half percent which we both believe that rental growth will be slower than last year because at the end of 2025 annual growth was running at five percent. So Rob I believe it's your turn to go first. What do you think for rents? I'm feeling a bit bolder than what others have said.

8:05I think it'll be four to five percent. I wouldn't be surprised if it's not too far away from where it was last year. Not a lot has changed. The supply and demand balance hasn't changed that much in my opinion. So I think it will be close. I'm going to say four to five percent. I'm going bolder than what others have said. What are you thinking? Once again, I remind everyone we did not share this in advance. I've had exactly the same. I've got four to five percent. But I think this is a really difficult one to call because as we've said, rental growth is currently running at five percent, but it has been dropping fast.

8:33It's been dropping from that double digits we had before, and the trend has been coming all the way down. So I think the two to three percent kind of mark that others are predicting seems realistic based on that trend, assuming no other shocks. But the point of uncertainty is the Renters' Rights Act. That's coming in in May. And part of that new law is that you're not going to be able to accept rental bids above what you're asking for in the first place. So what you've had up till now is if you've got a property that's really, really popular and you get loads of interest, you might get people offering you more than you originally asked for.

9:05Well, from May, you won't be able to accept that. So you're moving to effectively an offers up to system. What that might mean, although we have no idea, is that you get this one-off adjustment upwards in rents because everyone goes well I can't accept any more than I'm asking for so I might as well just put it up a little bit more than I was planning to because then if people offer below that no problem so given that and given that in the first quarter of the year lots of people will be moving their rents up in anticipation because tenants will be able to challenge higher rents after May we might get this one-off effect will it make a measurable difference I have no idea but I think that's a potential upward pressure on rents which is why I ended up in that 45 % band.

9:44So our predictions so far have been very close, probably the closest they've ever been actually, Rob, in terms of our predictions. Often there's a few differences. So let's see if there's a point of difference with interest rates. Where will interest rates be by the end of 2026? Well, let's quickly recap on what others are saying. Capital economics at 3%, quite safe for capital economics. Goldman Sachs, 3%. And the OECD, 3.5%. so rob there's a range there don't tell me you're going to go brita three and a half percent well i've gone for a specific number but it's not a very imaginative specific number i've got interest rates pretty wrong in the past i'm trying to play it safe and so my prediction is 3.25 yes we have a difference we have a difference at last okay mine is 3.5 percent and the reason for that is I think rates won't fall as fast as people think because inflation is still knocking around and I know the government is desperate to bring rates down and we'll be encouraging the Bank of England to do so and the Bank of England seem to have the appetite to move rates down as well.

10:54What's preventing them is persistent inflation and being above the targeted rate so I don't think it will come down quite as far as you've predicted Rob. If it does great I think that's a great outcome but I'm going to go a little bit higher which means we do have a point of difference. We do but either way it's down so if that plays out then you'll probably be looking at five-year fixes around like sort of like what four 4.25 % something like that depending on how the mortgage market goes which would not be too shabby at all. I do think we need to acknowledge in passing that we're talking about cuts even though inflation is still way above target.

11:30The two percent target is dead like no one's saying it's dead but I think it clearly is like They're trying to show a narrative that over the next few years, inflation will return to 2%. Therefore, it's okay to cut now. But they want to cut because they want to get the economy going. And they want to cut because the UK can't sustain high rates. So we'll do an episode about economics later this month, actually. But consider this a little teaser for that episode. I think understanding these dynamics, understanding how the system works is so important for putting your long-term strategy together.

11:59Completely agree. I'm looking forward to that economics episode. But let's move on away from our safe space rob and let's talk about other assets and let's go to the footsie last year i did pretty well at this i'm probably more luck than skill but once again we need to make our footsie 100 predictions so it's me to go first my prediction is the footsie 100 will break the 10 000 barrier for the first time that magical 10 000 number but it will not grow as much as last year which was around 17 growth last year so above 10 it will break that magic number for the first time but the footsie 100 will not grow as much as 2025 that might be safe because we're not too far away from 10 but i think breaking through that 10 might take a little while it'll get close and drift away and get close and drift away and then eventually it'll break through but i do not think we're going to see such aggressive growth in the footsie 100 like we did last year yeah probably is pretty safe.

12:59I'm going for a numerical prediction. So I also think it's going to break 10 ,000. I'm saying it's going to finish above 10 ,500. So I think we're basically coming at the same thing from different ways. But that's my prediction. The FTSE has been beaten down for such a long time. The UK has been so unloved as an investment market for various reasons. I think in 2025, it became so cheap. Everyone had to start paying attention to it again. So you had a lot more capital flowing in. I think that will continue. And I think that will take us up to the 10.5 but agreed it's not going to be a massive boom year.

13:30So the FTSE 100 we may know a little bit about far from experts let's move on to something that well I certainly know very very little about next to nothing about and I'm really going to struggle this year Rob because next up is a prediction on Bitcoin. Now normally my stock answer is something aggressive either up or down and it tends to be right because that's what Bitcoin does it's an asset that is so volatile that if you say something volatile, then you're probably going to end up correct. But actually, I'm going to play it safe, which is probably the silliest thing you can do with Bitcoin.

14:04And I'm going to say that Bitcoin will end up lower than last year's high. So last year's high was in the 120s USD. I think it will end lower than last year's peak. Based on what? Based on the amount of people who are talking to me about Bitcoin. In years gone by, when I've been a bit more bullish on Bitcoin. It's because a lot of people are having conversations about Bitcoin. People want to have that conversation with me. As we record this, those conversations aren't taking place. So of course, things could change. Something can trigger a huge spike. Sentiment can absolutely change throughout the year.

14:40Sort of give myself a little out here. But as it stands today, I don't think Bitcoin is going to do anything aggressive. But actually, by being safe, is probably the silliest thing I can do with this prediction. it's almost impossible to get this right i'm kind of taking a leaf out of your book and making a volatility prediction i'm saying that it's going to find a new all-time high in 2026 so i think at some point it's going to go above its previous high which is about 124 000 last october that doesn't mean it's going to finish there just it's going to find that level at some point and because bitcoin swings so wildly on sentiment for me it's not hard to imagine that happening at some point during the year even if that's not part of the theme of the year even if it finishes lower than it is now.

15:21I don't think it's incompatible with finding a new all-time high. So I hope that we've made predictions that are as safe-ish as you can get with Bitcoin and we don't end up looking spectacularly silly. But speaking of looking silly, we like to throw in at least one wildcard each year. And as it's a World Cup year, surely it has to be where we go with our wildcard. Now, last year with Spectacular Success, I outsourced my footballing predictions to Polymarket, which is a prediction market. So what I should do is follow that. They've got Spain as the most likely winner with a 16 % chance, followed by France at 14 % and England 13 % chance of winning.

15:52But I'm not going to do that based on a gut feeling and no knowledge of football whatsoever. I'm going for Argentina to win the World Cup. Oh, okay. So I was going to say, can we have two picks? And one of my two was Argentina as well, just based on time zones, climate, the fact it's in that region of the world and they're a very, very good football team. And my second choice, sorry, it's not England, it's France. So Argentina and France, one of those two, I think, will win the World Cup this year. I'm not supporting those nations, of course. I want England to win, but we're not known for finishing a job.

16:31I hope England have an incredible run, and I hope they do win, of course. But I'm going to pick two, and it'll be out of Argentina and France. You can have a second if you want, Rob. You can cheer everyone up and pick England. Everyone would be happy if you did that. Oh, fine. I know nothing about football, so I might as well. I'll pick England, but if it doesn't happen, I just want it noted for the record that I'm doing it to make us feel better, not because of any strong conviction. So I'm feeling pretty good about our predictions as a whole. I mean, I imagine we probably feel good about our predictions every time we make them because what matters is when we come back at the end of the year.

17:04But I feel like what we're getting at here is a year of slight improvement. That seems to be what we're getting at across all our different predictions. And barring anything crazy, I'm feeling pretty confident that that will be the case. And if that does turn out to be correct, then I'll be very happy. Not just because we'll have a good episode when we come back to review these, but also because we'll have a good year. It'll be a good year to be investing in. Yeah, if this plays out, then we're all going to do very well. So let's get behind these predictions, particularly Rob's forced England prediction for the World Cup.

17:33Now it's time for a very, very special Hub Extra, because it's a Hub extra from the wonderful Rob D. Rob, please do share your terrific news. Yes, so today is the paperback release of my book, Seven Myths About Money. So the hardback came out last year, but because of the vagaries of how publishing works, the paperback comes out later. So the paperback is out today, which is very exciting for me because it means it's going to start popping up in airport bookshops and places like that, which I love. So if you see the book out in the wild, please do take a photo, put it on social and tag me because I love it when people do that.

18:07I love seeing the book out there. But yes, today is the release date. So if you haven't yet read Seven Myths About Money and you are interested in personal finance and investing, which of course you are because you're here, then now is your chance. But if you are more of an audiobook person, then that's out there as well. The audiobook's already out there. You can save yourself some effort and listen to me read that book to you. So out today, available on Amazon, and as I say, in all good bookshops. Well, that's us done for another week. Thank you for listening. Thank you for being with us in the new year.

18:34Please do share the pod with others let others know that this resource exists so they can have an amazing 2026 as well hopefully we've put you on to a good start by giving you the areas that we think are going to be the real strong performers this year are you going to be investing there is 2026 going to be your year well i certainly hope it is but one prediction i'm very confident about is that we will be back with ask rob and rob on tuesday and another podcast next week and of course you can find us in the Sunday Times each and every Sunday as well. So until those wonderful events take place, take care, have fun.

19:08Bye-bye. Bye-bye.