139. Trump vs Iran: Saddam Hussein and the Nuclear Bomb (Ep 2)

24:03David:You want to bog it down and to cause as many problems for it to stop it thinking it can take you next. So there is a kind of dark logic to that position as well, but which claims, I think, many American lives. Yes, it claims many American lives. And the Iranians helped build themselves in Iraq like that. So they, you know, this is Qasem Soleimani's life achievement, if you will, right? So he's the head of the Quds Force. From 1998, he's appointed as the head of the Quds Force or the Jerusalem Force, as it's called, which is basically the external operations wings of the Revolutionary Guards. and the Guts force it's called Jerusalem force because of course the ultimate goal is the liberation of Jerusalem the Guts force helps run Hezbollah in Lebanon it's first guy by the way, first leader of the Guts force before Ghassim Soymani is a guy called Ahmad Wahidi who is today the head of the IRGC he was after the US just killed the last head Ahmad Wahidi was appointed as head and you know he helped Hezbollah in the 80s again a kind of tough guy to use trumpian language so qasim soimani is appointed in 1998 he's kind of led he's been iran's drug czar effectively fighting the drugs in the in the late 80s and 90s and he's helped the anti-taliban forces in afghanistan before that and and now in the late 90s in 1998 he's appointed as the head of the host force and iraq is going to be one of five years of the job you know he has this assignment effectively of leading the shia forces in iraq and he makes it his life's work and is able to build personal relationship with the shia militias and iran is really able to use it precisely two things to effectively dominate iraq first the democratic system because actually um it's a pretty good system for foreigners to use sometimes because all you need is to get people to vote for your candidates.

26:01And the sectarian civil war that ends up happening between Shias and Sunnis. And Iran is both responding to it and helps exacerbate it. So out of this quagmire, Iran comes to control and have a tight relationship with tons of Shia militias in Iraq. And Iraq becomes a central theater of Iranian-American confrontation.

26:26Gordon:And Qasem Soleimani, is it fair to say that he's the architect of that strategy? Or is he... No, he's definitely the architect of that strategy in Iraq, 100%. Yes. So he, you know, especially on the military side. I mean, Khamenei is the mastermind also. But Soleimani is the one who actually does it. And I would say the, you know, just to round out the point on sort of, you know, again, bring this back to kind of the central exam question of the series, which is why the US and Iran at such odds, and what does the secret history tell us about that? On the Iraq point, the Iranians are probably responsible for one in six US combat fatalities in Iraq.

27:10Gordon:So when you look at the Pentagon, they put out numbers in 2019 and tied back 603 deaths of US personnel in Iraq to attacks conducted by Iranian-backed militants. And a huge part of this was not all of it, but a huge part of it were these things called EFPs or explosively formed penetrators, which are essentially weird kind of mixture of it's an extremely cheap way to conduct attacks, but you also need state production capacity to build these kind of metal tubes. And I should say, listeners to our podcast will appreciate this, that Gordon has edited out all of my detail on EFPs from this script.

27:49Gordon:It was a little classic Gordon Carrera fashion. But essentially what it is, is it's like a metal tube that sends a cannon, almost like this charge, an explosively formed charge. And it shoots it out essentially into vehicles in a very sort of directed way very quickly. And these were devastating against these kind of mind resistant in ambush protective vehicles that the US was using in Iraq to counter the threat from improvised explosive devices. The Iranians supplied a lot of the sort of piping, the fabricated piping that militants used, and it led to 600 US personnel deaths in Iraq. So when I talk to colleagues of mine who worked the Iraq issue and the Iran issue after the Iraq war, this is one of the more visceral kind of charges against the Iranians that still gets people extremely, with I think good reason, extremely furious.

28:47David:Yeah, I think it's really interesting because it does, in a way, the hostage crisis was for a previous generation. What happened in Iraq, particularly I think for US military and intelligence for the new generation. But there was also another vector for tension between the US and Iran, which was Iran's nuclear programme. So let's take a break. And then when we'll come back, we'll have a look at that and bring it right up to Epic Fury today. This episode is brought to you by our wonderful friends, Atio, the AICRM. William here from Empire, briefly crossing the goal hanger network borders. In this AI era, software doesn't just store information, it understands how everything connects.

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31:35David:Well, welcome back. We're looking at that growing tension between the US and Iran. And another aspect of it was the nuclear program. I mean, there'd been a nuclear power program back to the Shah's days. And I think after the revolution, Ayatollah Khomeini was initially kind of resistant to the idea of nuclear weapons, seeing as the work of the devil. But of course, you then have the war with Iraq. The question about whether Iraq is developing weapons of mass destruction, as you call them, chemical weapons, but also nuclear. And so Iran is looking to build quite quietly the capacity for the bomb.

32:13David:And then in 2002, it goes public, doesn't it? Because the Natanz program is exposed to the world by an Iranian opposition group. And then you have, from that period onwards, the growth of the tension. I mean, really, the start of the story which takes us up today, which is what is going to be done about Iran's plans for a bomb? Can it be slowed down? Can it be stopped? Can it be contained? Is it something the world could live with? And clearly Israel feels like it can't, even though it's a nuclear state. Arash, I guess on the bomb itself, maybe we should just briefly explain. They haven't raced for a bomb itself, have they?

32:52David:They've raced for the potential to have a bomb, but quite consistently through this period. Why is that so important? Well, Iran tries a nuclear program like many other states do. And it looks like by the U.S. estimates, by 2003, it stops all weapons work. Before 2003, it had sort of toyed with that. But after that, it insists on its nuclear program. And this is really one of the follies of Khamenei, again, the Supreme Leader of Iran. There's this terrible mistake that the Iranian regime obviously makes, which is that they neither dart toward a bomb, which they haven't really done weapons work since 2003.

33:28Had they done it, you could say, OK, fait accompli. No, Iran has nuclear weapons. No deal with it. but nor do they give it up fully enough to stave off all these sanctions and all this pressure that's on them. So yes, Iran does sign a nuclear deal with the U.S. and a group of five other countries in 2015. And yes, Iran signs this deal in 2015. It's the U.S. under President Trump that leaves it in 2018. But Iran had ample opportunities to go back to a deal. It had this under the Biden administration. It had it under the rest of Trump's first term and even in Trump's second term. And they never really do this.

34:13So because Khamenei is very fascinating. Khamenei is very worried. He does not want Iran to become normalized with the U.S. And so Khamenei's very genius tactical move was declared a few years ago that around 2019, I think he formalizes it, which says Iran will not negotiate and there won't be a war, right? So he refuses to negotiate with the US, but there won't be a war either. And of course, Iran both negotiated and there was a war and finally he was killed in that war. So it's a folly of Iran and the way Iran sinks all his resources into this nuclear program. Nuclear program becomes the locus of its problems with the world.

34:56tons of sanctions by US, by European countries and others on Iran because of its desire to, because of its nuclear program. Whereas had he given it all up, I mean, you know, there was nothing that Iran could gain by this nuclear program that was as important as all the sanctions and all the pressure Iran faces.

35:14David:Did he see it as leverage? I mean, was that what it was? Or is it intrinsic to the regime, we must be allowed to develop nuclear power stroke nuclear weapons? No, I think he saw it as defiance. Defiance. so that's defiance and look the the point about the islamic republic is it does not want to integrate into the regional and global order it wants to be this defiant fortress right so ayatollah khomeini when he in 1988 when he accepts the ceasefire with iraq which was seen as given up on this quest to overthrow saddam and march to jerusalem and all that right um what does he do right after he does a couple of crazy things just to remind the world that he's still got it in the valentine's day of 1989 february 14 1989 he does the fatwa against salman roshdi just out of the blue this is british author who's you know written this book no one's talking about this book in iran aital khomeini hasn't read it but he says puts a fatwa in his head which follows mr roshdi all his life and as you know led to finally led to a an attack on him in the u.s yeah in which he almost lost his life in chataco in new yorkia but so anyways the point is that why does it's i think the roshdi fatwa is very important understanding islamic republic why does ayatollah khomeini give the fatwa like what a state policy is achieved by this.

36:42The policy of showing to the world that Iran is defiant and that it won't play by your rules. So it's not about the nukes. It's not about the fatwa. It's not about the Holocaust denial. Why does Ayatollah Khamenei keep doing the Holocaust denial? I mean, it doesn't help anybody. What it does help is to show that Iran will not play by your rules. A genuine, revolutionary, defiant state.

37:08David:Yeah, so it's interesting. So it goes back to your point that it's intrinsic to the regime, this defiance and this confrontational attitude. No, I don't like the word intrinsic usually because it can suggest that it cannot change. Right. And I do think it can change. It's a choice. It's a choice. Yeah, it's a choice by the leaders. It's a choice by the... By successive leaders. Exactly. To pursue that policy. And it's a choice contested by many. It's a choice contested by many in the regime. They just lose the power of us. So people like Hassan Rouhani, the former president, he clearly doesn't like these choices, but he loses the internal power battle to Khamenei.

37:45Gordon:And I think it's worth, you know, as we just are sort of bringing this thing forward in time and getting closer to the start of Epic Fury, I mean, you know, this kind of this defiance, this policy, this choice of defiance, of resistance. You know, I kind of see this period around the end of the nuclear deal. So when Trump essentially unilaterally walks away from it in 2018 is kind of the high watermark of this strategy. I'm curious what you think of this take, Arash. But if you look at the kind of 2018-2019 period, when you look regionally, you look at Iran has kind of stabilized Bashar al-Assad in Syria.

38:31Gordon:So they have their Syrian ally. Hezbollah is looking pretty strong after the 2006 war with the Israelis, where they've kind of claimed victory. Iranian influence is growing in Iraq. There's a Baghdad, Damascus, Beirut land quarter that's opened up. Gossam Soleimani has kind of overseen this architecture of building up these partners and proxies all throughout the region. Again, another point where Trump and the advisors around him have kind of labeled the Iranian and regional position as a menace. And then at home, it seems at that point in time, like the strategy of kind of not quite giving on the nuclear program, but also using it as leverage with the US, with the international community as paying some dividends for Khamenei and the people around him.

39:19Gordon:And then it starts to tip. And I think we see a period starting and I, you know, I kind of mark the turning point as the actual, the assassination of Ghassam Soleimani, which takes place in January of 2020. But around that period of time, it's essentially, it begins a string of, I would say, losses and setbacks for the regime, externally and internally, that more or less bring us up to the point where we're at today.

39:51David:And Arash, I mean, Soleimani is killed by a US drone strike under President Trump. This huge figure, you've talked about his importance. It's fascinating that there wasn't much of a response from Iran, was there? I've always found that a little bit odd. What does that tell us? It's a very excellent question. And we're talking six years later. It's because Ayatollah Khamenei has this contradiction, which is that he wants to keep on defiance. He wants to keep on death to America. But he knows... He doesn't want a war. He doesn't want a war. He knows a direct confrontation with the U.S. will be suicidal for him, right?

40:33He understands that. So he does this, or he does what Islam Republic has made an art, play here and there right attack argentina when you can do terror operations that can't be claiming back to you build these little militias in different countries that you surround the u.s and israel with um but without getting into direct confrontation build a nuclear weapon but build a nuclear program but not a nuclear weapon basically tease your way around these things right and president trump obviously doesn't like that right uh he doesn't play by those rules so he you You know, he killed Soleimani, which went against everything that they had thought possible.

41:11And Khamenei blinks effectively. He attacks Ain al-Assad in Iraq. They also downed a Ukrainian airliner, which is an episode of its own. Many people believe they did it on purpose in order to effectively prevent a war. I mean, there are some sort of strange theories there. But the fact of the matter is the IRGC shoot down a Ukrainian airliner and killed everybody in it. Now, they say it was a mistake, of course, but a lot of people don't believe that. Anyways, but the point is, look, basically, this strategy unravels and it unravels from that day. You're like, okay, you can't get to just shout death to America for 40 years.

41:56What are you going to do about it now?

41:58David:Their bluff is called. Their bluff is called by Trump. So, you know, in the first term and then in the second term. But it's interesting because I think of October 7th, 2023, and the attack on Israel by Hamas is another big turning point because that is the point at which Israel's risk calculus changes about what it's willing to tolerate in the region and what it's willing to do and how aggressive it's willing to be. And of course, one of the things it does, as well as going into Gaza, is it goes after Hezbollah and it goes after very hard. And kills the leadership of Hezbollah, the great Iranian proxy.

42:35David:This is all the beginning of what is leading us up to today, isn't it? Is partly Israel shifting its position? 100%. I mean, this is very clearly a post-October 7 world. I mean, it's clear that that is a very important turning point. Because in response to October 7, which is this big calamity in Israel, It kills hundreds, more than a thousand Israeli civilians. It's a huge shock to Israel. And Israel starts a devastating war on Gaza, but it also starts going after the axis of resistance, dismantling it one by one. So effectively it degrades Hezbollah. And degrading of Hezbollah also helps with the fall of Assad regime.

43:18The Assad regime is, of course, attacked by the Syrian revolutionaries and the credit belongs to them by bringing it down. but of course you know Israel's degrading of Hezbollah has helped and I believe Iran was not consulted on October 7th I don't think they knew it was happening Khamenei would have never approved such a thing I think because he's you know he's much more risk averse so yeah but what follows is that Israel helps decimate the acts of resistance but actually look we have to think about the fall of the axis in several ways inside Lebanon and Iraq there's also rising Shia constituencies that are unhappy with the system they're unhappy that their interest is not represented by a sort of cliques linked to tehran their whole political system and iraq and lebanon are not fun places to live as a result of this basically the political system is unresponsive to citizens demands the state is ineffective and um and divided so there's in 2019 there are important mass movements in iraq and in lebanon against uh against the sectarian system in these countries which is effectively against iran's role this is very important often forgotten actually in 2019 in iraq this really leads to the appointment of the first non-islamist prime minister of iraq since 2003 and that's moustapha kazemi a guy who wants to heal iraq closer to saudi arabia to jordan to egypt to arab countries and not to iran and i would say iraq has never gone back basically under kazemi's successor muhammad shia sudani even though there's a long history of how sudani came to be and he was basically considered to be a pro-iran candidate compared to the previous uh compared to kazemi and compared to the fact that muhtada sadar um this shia cleric who really came out against iran had tried to organize a government that um he had tried to organize a government that was more explicitly anti-iran but even sudani continues the path of kadami so you have this development in iraq you have the degrading of hezbollah you have the the most important fall of the asad regime in syria so iran effectively sees the fall of its axis and of course you also have repeated israeli attacks on iran which are are massive intelligence failure on part of the regime um israelis yeah which show the weakness yes israelis is still the iranian nuclear archives all of it they literally with two guys and a motorbike they put the entire nuclear archives on the back of two motorbikes and it's tomorrow of iran they kill fakir who's really the father of iranian nuclear program and they kill him in his very safe compound outside tehran they kill ismail hania the head of hamas as he's visiting iran which is a huge humiliation of course in his in in in lebanon by hitting hezbollah they also kill hassan nasrallah the leader of hezbollah um so all of this really degrades iran and leaves you know leaves it much more defenseless when it comes to the current war.

46:19Gordon:Which I think really does bring us up to Epic Fury. I mean, where we are today. I think, Arash, I mean, this is the... I threatened in the first episode that I was going to do this. So I'm going to follow through on my threat, which is to look you in the eye and ask you, where do you think this is headed? And maybe I'll break it into maybe two questions. I think the first is, you know, of all of the different reasons that have been given for Epic Fury, what do you think is the most compelling? Why are the U.S. and Israel doing this right now? I think that was an easy to answer. I think it's not about the nuclear weapons.

47:03I think it's not about Iran's missiles. I think it's not about the proxies. It is about regime change. I mean, they wanted to get rid of the Islamic Republic. They believe the Islamic Republic is torn on their side since 1979. And they want to finally do something with it. Finally do something that has awaited every president since President Carter. I think that's how Trump looks at it. And that's how Israelis look at it. They think we are on a roll. We hit all over the axis. Let's go to what people used to call the head of the snake, right? And they thought this is possible because there was also a massive domestic movement against the regime and that had battered it, come out time and time against it.

47:44Of course, it appears very foolish to me as a sort of goal. Because how are you going to achieve it? What's the plan exactly here? What do you think is going to happen? maybe we'll know in a few months that I was wrong and they had a plan unless unfortunately I think for many Israelis and even many in the Israeli regime in the Israeli government and maybe perhaps some in the US they don't mind they don't want a democracy in Iran or sort of the transition to something else and Iran that is degraded disintegrated, weak and therefore not a threat is also acceptable I think it's very clear the Israelis don't mind that And some in the U.S.

48:26might also. The president has unfortunately and alarmingly, for example, said that maybe the map of Iran will probably not look the same after. Although you also can't, you know, the statements he makes off the cuff to the press are, it's not always clear that they're expression of a state policy, let's say. Anyways, so I think they wanted to do this. And I think the president, I think President Trump, I think he loved what happened in Venezuela, the Venezuelan transition. it's a very neat thing when you look at it from his goals he went in he took the president out they had probably behind the scene worked with this other person from inside the gindalcy rodriguez who came out and said great we'll work with the u.s everything is great now and you know we'll sell oil and and basically we're friends now i mean it's remarkable that they established diplomatic relations already um two months later right and i think president trump loved that and he thought well, great, I can do that.

49:23And I think the thinking was, well, if you kill Aytola Khamenei, surely the next leader is going to be like, well, I don't want to be killed, so I'll play ball with the US. And of course, it's going to be much more complicated in the case of Iran. And that's why things are not looking great for the US war effort at the moment.

49:41David:They will the end, which is getting rid of the regime, but not the means to get there. But I also think this point about the history and the hostility is interesting, isn't it? Because Trump himself, I think, did some interviews around 1980 about the hostage crisis saying, why don't we just attack them? I can't believe they've taken our people hostage. He is someone, because of his age, who's lived through this history of enmity between the two countries, including back to the hostage crisis. And therefore, I think, would love his legacy to be, I'm the one who dealt with the Iranian problem in a way none of these previous presidents did.

50:12David:So I think the history, and that's why he references the history that of that we've been talking about defines him and what he wants but as you said that doesn't mean he's going to get it i mean i think any u.s president i think anybody who was becoming u.s president right um u.s has this presidential cult right it's very important like you know presidents are very defined um they're defined by their achievements you have i said presidential cult because i mean it's not necessarily the same in other systems right that everything is attributed to the president they're defined by their achievements and their failures so every president I think will have a bucket list of things like what are the things I can do to put my place in history and of course I think Iran has been one of it since President Clinton at least like what if I am the person who can solve this Persian puzzle who can solve the Iranian problem basically so I think it's a temptation for any president I think anybody who wants to become president I mean the temptation for them of course it's and you know it was to president obama obviously and he has spent so much diplomatic effort to so much effort it's kind of crazy if you remember how much of the effort that the u.s government went to the iranian file during the obama administration much less for example went to the israeli-palestinian file which the u.s which he also tried to crack so yes i think it's not surprising at all that someone like president trump would would want to solve it um and he's been rather obsessed with it since his first term but but can i also say there's a consistency to president trump that he's always basically his whole since his first term he said look i don't care who is in charge of iran i don't care if it's democracy or not all i want is that they play by this you know they play by these rules and they stop these things against the u.s don't have a nuclear weapon all that so he was ready to negotiate in the first term they didn't negotiate with him.

52:07In the second term, he negotiated and he waged a war at the same time. And now here we are. And I think he's now come to the conclusion that, okay, no, actually I'm convinced by the Israelis, we can and must get rid of the regime. But I think in his mind, getting rid of the regime can still mean as I said, a Venezuela still transition in which power passes to someone else inside the regime.

52:29Gordon:Yeah. Arash, last question to close out this, I think this series. We've been obviously talking about the history of the conflict, the secret conflict between the U.S. and Iran, do you see a scenario, a plausible scenario at the end of Epic Fury that leads to a better relationship between the U.S. and Iran? The short answer is yes. I was opposed to this war and I am opposed to it for the huge civilian casualties and lack of a clear you know plan and many other reasons to be skeptical of this war but of course all my life i've believed that it is possible for iran and america to reconciliate they're kind of my two countries so i would love to see that personally as well but i also just on a pure cold-headed analytical person i do believe it's possible because i believe Iran has no other choice even though now Abdullah Khamenei is killed, he's replaced by his son who is injured and nowhere to be seen so we are in this situation in which the revolutionary guards are kind of running the country the new supreme leader is nowhere to be seen it appears that they are on a roll that they feel like they've really resisted against America so far and frankly if the war right now things don't look so bad March 11th from the perspective of the Islamic Republic in a way because they can say you killed our leader, you destroyed all of these things but we stayed in power we had orderly succession and it's you who are kind of freaking out and blinking first and wanting to leave because survival is victory exactly and the US has a democratic system which means that when oil prices go up the president gets worried, you know, there's a domestic sort of scene here none of that, you know, Iran doesn't have to The Iranian leadership doesn't have to worry about that.

54:27The Iranian guards are going on TV every day saying, we're going to shoot anyone who comes to the streets. Very openly saying it, by the way. They're not even coaching. The head of the Iranian police went on TV and said, if you come on the streets, we'll shoot you. That's almost like a direct quote, right? So that's what Iran does, right? President Trump can't say that. So he has to still be in elections. so um well he doesn't have to win with his party has to win elections hopefully he doesn't have to win elections anymore um but let's see anyways but the point is that um so survival is victory so they're on their high horse there um but i think ultimately ultimately they realize that they need to come to some sort of an understanding with the u.s that they need to um end this long anybody with the U.S.

55:21in order to, because on the day after of this war, Iran will be a ruined place, economically ruined, in a terrible condition. I think the kind of leaders that will be able to come to power and hold power in Iran won't be the kind of crazy extremists who don't want to do anything with the U.S. I think they'll end up having enough of pragmatic elements in there who will go toward establishing it as the U.S. So I think in five years from now, Iran and the United States will have diplomatic relationship I'm not sure it would be Islam Republic which is in Iran I'm not sure who will be the leaders in Iran but I think resumption of diplomatic ties between Iran and the US is something that will happen in the next few years

56:04David:well Arash thank you so much I think that's a good place to bring to end this series looking at how we got where we are thank you so much for joining us the two books by Arash our Shadow Commander and What Iranians Want both essential reading now and of course if you are a club member you can hear more because we've got a special q a with arash for members of the classified club can join at the rest is classified dot com but thank you very much arash and thank you all for joining us we'll see you next time

56:34Gordon:we'll see you next time

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