107. The Trump Doctrine: America First, Ukraine Last

0:06Welcome to The Rest is Politics US in the lovely state of Jackson Hole Wyoming we're in the beautiful state of Wyoming and unfortunately our background doesn't do justice to how beautiful this is, but I've been driving around on a car out here, Caddy. I'm like driving through a postcard. It's quite magnificent. Also, the most conservative state in the country and the highest number of Trump voters per capita in the country, but that's just an aside. Anyway, we're having a great time. Well, there's only 500 ,000 people here, but anyway, this is also... Five of them voted for Kamala Harris. Yeah, this is the largest state per person, said differently.

0:40There's 500 ,000 people on a tremendous land mass. And a lot of cows. A lot of cows. And the beef is good, as we know, because we tried the steak last night, which was delicious. Anyway, here we are. We are going to talk about Trump and Zelensky and all that's been happening in the White House this week. First of all, of course, we had the Alaska meeting that we already spoke about. Then we had this extraordinary display of European unity descending on Washington, D.C. I don't think we've seen anything like that since the Iraq war. Where we are, is there going to be a second meeting? Is there going to be a ceasefire?

1:11Are there going to be security guarantees? all that up in the air. But Europeans I've spoken to breathing something of a sigh of relief. And then in the second half, Anthony, we're going to talk about where the U.S. economy is. There's kind of a lot of mixed messages. Are there storm clouds on the Wyoming horizon? So we'll get into that in the second half. What do you think? Well, I mean, so we are at the Wyoming Blockchain Symposium and there are some Fed officials here. This conference dovetails off of the Fed, Federal Reserve Conference. And some of the Fed officials looking through the data would tell you that there is weakening.

1:46There is weakening unemployment data, which would suggest that there's going to be a rate cut. Obviously, Wall Street thinks there'll be a 25 basis point rate cut in September. If the Fed wanted to loom large over the economy, they would cut 50 basis points. But the economy is weakening. The question is, Is it weakening cyclically, Katty, or is it weakening as a result of the tariffs that have been put in place? Are they finally digging into the economy now with some level of gnashing of teeth? We'll talk about that in the second half. Talk about that in the second half. But let's talk about Trump and Zelensky.

2:21Yes. And the other European leaders that descended upon the White House this past week. I have lots of thoughts, but why don't you share some of yours first, and then I'll go through my screed of ideas. I've spoken to a few people this week from the European side, but also from the American side on how they felt that meeting went. Look, if Vladimir Putin has two goals, right? One is to get Ukraine. And the second is to destroy European unity. And I think you can kind of broadly frame his goals like that. On the first one, I think we don't know how he's going to do. I don't think we know whether there is going to be a second meeting.

3:04This is something that Donald Trump has said that is going to happen, but already we're recording this on Wednesday morning. But the Kremlin is already kind of throwing a bit of cold water on that. But I think on the thing of European unity, I just wanted to get your thoughts on that because you sent me those photographs that look a little like the last supper from the Oval Office. I think the Europeans did a pretty good job of showing unity. They flew in, my understanding is, they all landed in Washington. They went straight to the Ukrainian embassy. They met together at the Ukrainian embassy before going to the White House.

3:38They wargamed the whole thing. They discussed the flattery. They discussed the points that they were going to raise. And they presented Donald Trump with a unified Europe. And I think he responded pretty well to that. The Europeans are feeling that they've put the wheels back on the train, the train back on the track. At least there is now a process. And how the process pans out, I think there are still huge questions. I'm pretty skeptical about quite a lot of this process. But the Europeans feel they've figured out how to work with Donald Trump, or at least how to tell Donald Trump he is the best leader in the world.

4:14Okay, I must have missed all that. I don't know. It must have went over my head because I got a totally different vibe from the meetings. Trump came back from the Alaska summit flummoxed. Putin basically dug in. Trump is obviously a weakling. Putin didn't give him anything, right? I didn't give him anything. Trump is obviously a weakling. I've said on this program he's a beta male. Let me now supply some evidence. Okay. We're going to have a ceasefire or I'm going to dig in with stanchions. Well, guess what? We're not going to have a ceasefire. We're going to kill a thousand people a day until there's some type of resolution to the war.

4:48Trump comes back and says, well, I don't really need a ceasefire. But five days ago, sir, you said that there would be a ceasefire. And if not, you dig in with more sanctions. Well, no, we're not going to do that. Everything that Putin wanted, he gave him. So no ceasefire. Number two, as it relates to European unity, the test of European unity will be when Trump breaks from them because he's Putin's advocate at the table. Putin said, this is what I want, Donald Trump, and you're going to get this for me. Trump said, roof, you're the boss. That is the exact quote from the press conference, the mini 12-minute press conference.

5:22You're the boss. Roof, roof, let me go to the Europeans and get you exactly what you want. Europeans push back politely, but the impasse is coming, Caddy. The impasse is coming where Trump is going to say, I'm with Putin, and the Europeans are going to have to say, well, you know what? That's too bad because we're with the Ukrainians. We're going to arm up and we're going to knock these guys off Ukrainian soil. And that's going to be a very big test of leadership globally. It's going to be a very big test of European unity. But it's unfortunate that that's coming. It did not have to come. The president had way more muscle.

6:00He had way more leverage in the meetings. Some historians... Even in the meetings with Putin, he had way more leverage. Yes. Some historians are going to have to say, well, why did he not use his leverage and his muscle with Putin? One last very quick point. Putin will never. OK. And by the way, somebody write in to us. If he meets with Zelensky, I agree. You can dunk me in a cold plunge. I hate cold plunges. Throw me in that tube. There's morons outside cold plunging right now. It's I don't know. I think it's the stupidest thing I've ever seen. But you can cold plunge me if Putin and Zelensky are in the meeting together ever.

6:40That is such a bad photo op for Putin after all the propaganda that he spilled into his country. So that ain't happening either. There's going to be a showdown. And when the showdown happens, we're going to see what Europe's all about. Look, I think if you just look at that meeting, I think the Europeans handled it well. It went better for Zelensky, obviously, than the first disastrous meeting. He wore the suit, for God's sake. I don't know what it is about the suit. But anyway, he wore a suit. Trump liked the fact that he wore a suit. So he was a little bit more amenable towards Zelensky than he was in that disastrous first meeting.

7:13The Europeans were all on the same page, which I think was very important for Europe. But the test is going to come. And it seems like it's already coming over this bilateral meeting that Donald Trump has said that he wanted. Now, you know, I speaking to the European officials on this and I point out to them, Trump can change his mind in a heartbeat and he's likely to change his mind again. I mean, the chances are that he rose back, sounds less friendly. Changes his mind in what way? OK, that he said we're going to have this bilateral meeting and then the trilateral meeting or there will be consequences.

7:52Right. Well, there won't be any consequences. So that's the question is that there won't be consequences. So then what do they do? Because what the Europeans are saying is, well, if there is no bilateral meeting, which I agree with you and the kind of Russia experts that I have spoken to over the past few months have said Zelensky has no chance of meeting Vladimir Putin because Putin has such disdain for him and doesn't want to legitimize him. So he doesn't want to have the photo with him. Horrific for the propaganda in Russia. It would be bad. So then the question is, and the Europeans say, well, at that point, Donald Trump will realize he can't trust Vladimir Putin.

8:28But I think that's where they're dreaming, because I don't think that Donald Trump is going to do anything. There's not going to be any retribution. There's no history to show that. We'll talk about that in a second. But there's a dead person that's been looming over Donald Trump. His name is Jeff Epstein. You ever hear about him? Because I haven't heard about him in the last two weeks. This is Trump's genius. Trump's genius is, wow, I got Jeff Epstein off this page. I'm flying around visiting Anchorage, Alaska. I'm over here. I'm over there. Jeff Epstein. What Jeff Epstein? So Jeff Epstein, as we predicted on this show, is being dispatched into the past and is not going to haunt or loom over Donald Trump in the future.

9:08Again, that's my opinion. I want to go to the pictures from the Oval Office, and I want to explain to the rest of politics listeners what that was, because people have to understand Donald Trump. that was staged television production. And that meeting, Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, that meeting, Jack Kennedy would have been held in the cabinet room. And there would have been around the table and there would have been a little bit of more equality to the meeting and there would have been a little bit more respect in the meeting. But what Trump did was he created a semicircle, like he was the teacher and they were the students.

9:50in the semicircle, and he put the European leaders in the Oval Office. He's behind the Resolute desk, and he's there looking at them. They're his pupils. Caddy, that was completely staged by the White House. That's MAGA red meat. That's being disseminated on True Social. It's being disseminated everywhere. It's part of the humiliation rituals that Donald Trump does to people, but it's also a signal to MAGA. The U.S. is back. We're stronger than ever. Look at all the kowtowing that's going on from the European leaders, France, the U.K., these wonderful, historically great countries. They're all here on bended knee before the orange maniac.

10:38And that's a sign to MAGA. It's a perfect image for Trump, and it's going to be used over the next six to 12 months. I'm looking at it now. Two things are interesting. Your point about how his chair is always higher. He's on a bigger chair than they are. They look lower than he is. But if you look at the one of the leaders from behind Donald Trump, there's Georgia Maloney sitting like this. And it's quite interesting because she is the one with her arms crossed and looking kind of grumpy to be there, looking like she's not happy with this photo opportunity. Every time I turn my back, does the Oval Office get more gold in it?

11:13I am serious. Look at this. I'm going to show Anthony this. President Liberace. Look at that. It's more than it was. I mean, no, he's putting gold on everything. But the other thing is that the more the media complains about the shock and awe of the decoration, the more he's going to do. I mean, he took the rose garden and he paved it. He paved the rose garden. He put like these stone tiles and there's little chairs out there like his little receiving area at Mar-a-Lago. I mean, he took Jackie Kennedy's rose garden and demolished it. Now he's gone gilded in the Oval Office. All of this stuff is triggering.

11:55All of this stuff, believe it or not, is part of the culture war. But I want to get back to Zelensky for a second because he is a leader. Let me just explain this to my opinion, okay? You got to wear the suit with Trump, no problem. You take the suit off the table, no problem. But Zelensky has got the Europeans with him. Zelensky, I believe, has convinced the Europeans that he's coming for you. And I think they are convinced. And that is new. You know, I was up in the Scandinavian region last week, talked to a lot of officials up there. We know that Finland and Sweden joined NATO. There's an 800-mile border between the Finns and the Russians.

12:38We said last week, Joseph Stalin took 12 % of formerly Finnish land, annexed it, made it part of the Soviet Union. The Finns never got it back. It's still in territorial dispute. In their minds, that's 80 years ago. The Finns have an unbelievable fighting force. You and I both know that. And they stand battle ready at their border 24-7 against a perceived threat from the Russian army. So there's no fooling around in Scandinavia. You know, the Baltic states, there's no fooling around. There's lots of worry there. Putin wants to annex these things, which is why he's gone to Trump and said, listen, give me the Donbass.

13:21If I'm in the Donbass region, I'll cede this, I'll offer that, I'll provide security guarantees. But that region, once he gets it, he'll be able to plow ahead deeper into Ukraine and cause more havoc. So this is a Chamberlain-Hitler setup. Just give me the Sudan land. Just give me this area. These are all German natives. These are all people that speak German. Just give me this, and then you can go back to London with peace in our time. How did that work out, Guy? Did it work out well? Yeah, so that didn't work out quite so well. And I think you're right that there is particularly that strip, what's called the Fortress Strip in Donbass, that he would like because with these four cities in it from that, he thinks he can then launch more attacks into Ukraine.

14:04He doesn't have it now, and they have well-fortified that area because they understand strategically. It would be like Israel— They would have to then re-fortify further back, which is a huge— Exactly, but if you look at the geography, that would be really bad for them. It would be like the Israelis ceding the Golan Heights, that mountainous territory between them and Syria, which they took and they used as a defense fortification. The Ukraine government cannot give up that region. And Zelensky is not going to accept the flex from Donald Trump and his buddy Vladimir Putin. So I think the difference to this week with the Europeans, apart from the fact that they had choreographed this as well as they could, they got the show of the unity as much as they can, is that there is now this real feeling that the Russians are not going to go for Berlin.

14:54But there is more heightened fear in Europe at the moment about the possibility of Russia after a year or two of rearming, first going for the rest of Ukraine, but also potentially going for the Baltics. Or even if you're in Poland, the fear that they could go for Poland. That's why, interesting that you mentioned Finland, because I've been told that the guy who's going to lead this, Marco Rubio has set up a commission to kind of discuss what exactly these security guarantees would look like. and that from the European side, the points of contact are the Finnish president who Donald Trump gets on well with because he's a good golf player and the German chancellor.

15:34And he seems to have respect for both of those. By the way, he commented on both of their suntans, which is always a good sign with Donald Trump. It means he likes you if he comments on your suntan. We're just going to leave it there. We're not going to infer anything by any of this, but let me just go back to you. Can I say one thing? Hold on a second, because you talked about MAGA and we heard Steve Bannon talking about as he did with the bombing of Iran, saying that this is not going to go down well with MAGA. This is meant to be America first. Why is Donald Trump offering security guarantees, even if that is only, and we don't know what it constitutes at the moment, let's say it's intelligence.

16:08Let's say it's potentially air support. But Steve Bannon is talking about a potential split within MAGA over this. I don't buy that. They swallowed the Iran bombing. If If Donald Trump decides to give security guarantees of some sort and air defense intelligence to the Ukrainians, I reckon that MAGA will accept this. They'll take it while Donald Trump is in charge. Mr. President, listen, you can talk about a security guarantee is all you want, but I don't want you to give any. And Mr. President, I'm eventually going to annex Ukraine because I am in my 70s and I'm better than Stalin. And I've got to reattach these things called the republics, the former republics of the Soviet Union.

16:55And so, by the way, my foreign secretary, Lavrov, showed up in Anchorage with a CCP. Basically, USSR sweatshirt. Right, right. He was trolling them. You know, I'm trolling you guys because we've got something on you, obviously. So let's play. Let's play. We've got a few minutes to go here in the period. Let's play some strategy. OK, so I'm your intelligence officer. You're the president of the United States. So so, Mr. President, we have assets all over Europe. We've got the 101st Airborne in Poland. Mr. President, we have this is an opportunity akin to the Truman Doctrine where we can push this faltering country, this faltering economy.

17:41we can push them back and send them a lesson. We don't want their territory, but we don't want them encroaching on our friends' territory, a result of which the Trump doctrine could be, Vlad, no USSR. Go F yourself. Push them back. And we have all the assets, and we have all the capability to do that. We have the drone technology, intelligence operations. We can completely do this in a non-nuclear way, and the Russians are not going to nuke us. We didn't nuke them. They haven't nuked us even in the hottest parts of the Cold War. No one's nuking each other over this. Who's kidding who? Medvedev can tweet all he wants about it.

18:21Not going to happen. You can knock their block off. And then Trump says, well, my buddy is going to lose power if we do that. But go ahead. You beat President Trump and you tell me why we are not aligned with the European allies to have a new Trump doctrine, a new Truman doctrine, to knock these guys back into their sovereign territory and to restate the territorial sovereignty of the countries that are friends of ours. Well, because if I'm Donald Trump, I'll say that actually it's all about trade negotiations and trade relationships and America first and getting the best deal for America. And I will parrot J.D.

18:59Vance and say, this is Europe's problem. America has been financing this for too long. The American public is not behind this. The American voters, both Democrat and Republicans, and he's got a point here, do not support America being engaged in this war. But Mr. President, pay attention to me. I have a really nice suntan. Pay attention to me, OK? But that's not true, Mr. President, because if you do that, you're going to calm down markets. You're going to restate the predictability of America and what America represents to the world. You're going to increase our soft power. You're going to increase our global popularity.

19:35You're also going to send a message to the Chinese about Taiwan. You don't want to do all those things for the country. You've lost me on too many details. I want the moment. I want the photo op. I want this resolved today. And then I want my Nobel Prize. And you haven't mentioned any of those things. Before we started, I texted. You're actually scaring the daylight. I said, Katty Kay is scaring me. She's channeling Donald Trump now. On the 107th episode of The Rest is Pilgrim's US. I've now morphed. If you come next time we're together in an orange wig, I'm running from the building. I floored you with that.

20:07That was pretty good interpretation, wasn't it, of Donald Trump? That scared the daylights out of me. I could use other words, but I'm trying to be polite. OK, so what happens next? The next steps are this bilateral meeting. You and I both think that's not going to happen. Just before we started, I texted Senator Barrasso, John Barrasso, who I bumped into yesterday here in Wyoming, the senator from Wyoming, who is number two in the Republican leadership in the Senate. And I asked him what would happen if Trump didn't meet with Zelensky. Would he support moving ahead with this big package of sanctions that Senator Lindsey Graham has put on the table?

20:45And he then texted me and said, Lindsey just texted me this 20 minutes ago, which is an article about how they should go ahead with the sanctions. And Barrasso says there's a lot of appetite for that. So I I think there are things that could happen now if, and this is specifically to do with whether, if Trump says, I'm not going to meet with Zelensky. Go a step further, though. Explain politically why Barrasso and Lindsey Graham would want to do that. Because there is still in the Republican Party a group of people who forever have felt that the existential threat to the United States is Russia and China, and they want the Republican Party to resume its historic America robust in the world position.

21:32And so they don't want to see Vladimir Putin and the Kremlin being rewarded in the way that for taking over Ukraine. They don't want the Baltics to be taken over. They don't want Poland to be taken over. They don't want Finland to be encroached upon again. Because they see the threat, because they understand that in the sweep of history. It will destabilize the economies. It will destabilize jobs in America. The world. It'll disconnect the world. We'll be in a fever dream that leads to a kinetic war. That it is only America that can put the pressure on the Russians to stop this. I'm going to switch roles now.

22:09I am now channeling Donald Trump. But listen, there's a triumvirate going on in the world right now. It's me, Putin, and she. Everybody else is a school child. Everybody else has to sit before me as I peer at them from the resolute desk. And so as far as I'm concerned, there are three great regional powers. Let Putin have whatever he wants in that area of the country, those countries. Let Putin have whatever he wants in those countries. I don't care. And you're Lindsey Graham now. And I'm sorry I'm doing that to you. That's a horrific thing to do to you. You're now Lindsey Graham. It's 7 o 'clock in the morning.

22:43I can barely look at you, Katty. I've already been Donald Trump. I'm turning my back on you right now. And now I'm going to be Lindsey Graham. OK, you're Lindsey Graham. Now tell me why you don't want that. Go ahead. Mr. President, if we allow the Russians to be rewarded for attacking another country, they will go after other countries. And then the Chinese will go after Taiwan, which, by the way, is a major supplier of semiconductor chips to the United States. There will be the markets will tank if there is war in Europe. Europeans will stop buying American things, especially if there are tariffs on their own things that they're trying to export.

23:22This is not a good idea, Mr. President. We do not want war in Europe. OK, so he doesn't pay attention to that because he thinks he can do this. OK, the reason he doesn't pay attention to this is because Donald Trump and the people around Donald Trump believe that Donald Trump is sui generis and that he conducts. Conducts all foreign policy, and we're going to talk about this in the second half, and all economic policy from a totally personal, top-down. There is no negotiation with underlings. There was no diplomatic preparation for either of these meetings because he is the great negotiator, and it is about him and him alone.

23:56Before we take a break, can I just make one prediction? Can we take a break soon? Because otherwise you're going to ask me to become a hundred other people. There's some really brutal people that I made. I'm going to need the whole flight back to Washington to be detraumatized. I just may want you to imitate some other brutal people. Before we take a break, I want to make a prediction. My prediction is three or four weeks from now on this program, we'll be talking about the talks have broken down. The kinetic war continues. The fighting season is ending as we go into the cold winter. And there's a stalemate.

24:28And the Europeans are arming the Ukrainians. Which takes time. It takes time. But the Europeans are going to fill the American gap in arms. Three to five years. And we are going to be fighting through the 2028 presidential election. And then the question is, do the Republicans do Barrasso? Barrasso, who is very close at the moment to Donald Trump. So it's interesting that he is texting to say there's a lot of appetite for this sanctions bill. OK, we're going to take a break and talk about the economy when we come back.

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