11. Advantage Trump: Will the Democrats move to replace Joe Biden?

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1:24Welcome to the Rest is Politics special live post-debate. I feel like I've just gone to an NFL game, Anthony. We are live on YouTube to talk about the first presidential debate that has just wrapped up. This will broadcast, for those of you listening as a podcast, this will broadcast as our regular, the rest is politics, US version on Friday morning, UK time. But Anthony and I want to take, we'll take some of your questions. They're great. They're coming in already. But give us a second to digest what we just heard. I was watching with my 24-year-old son who said it was as excruciating as watching England play Slovakia when England was paying badly.

2:03Anthony, you have been of the view that Joe Biden is going to win this election. I'm just wondering what you thought of his debate performance, because I am getting Democrats flooding my phone saying that was a disaster. I'm a markets guy. Obviously, if I've got something wrong, I'm man enough to admit that I've got something wrong. and I had to also sell a position when it's going against me. The prediction markets here in the U.S. are now 67-33, Trump versus Biden, meaning the likelihood that Trump will now win. Trump goes up five, six points likely as a result of this. Can Joe Biden make that up?

2:42I don't know. I just want to make three quick points. If the election's held today, Donald Trump is winning this election. If the election's held on November 5th, unless something seismic happens to Donald Trump's health, he will likely win this election. So I have to eat the words that I said before. Facts change. When facts change, smart people change their facts. I'll just make three quick points. This is not Joe Biden of 2020. Go back and watch those debates. I did that this afternoon. He was coherent. When he was sitting, his legs were crossed. When he was standing, he was listening, taking in the information.

3:20He was very confident and he was very sure of himself. He started fumbling with the numbers early on. He said he created 15 ,000 jobs when he wanted to save 15 million and he fumbled through the whole night. Last point, whether you like Donald Trump or you dislike Donald Trump, Donald Trump has done the work to be president. He's out there working every single day. He's meeting with people. He's signing dollar bills of young kids that are wearing Trump wigs. and as a result of which he was very prepared to use his rhetoric and sound bites effectively tonight. So whether you like Donald Trump, dislike Donald Trump, like Joe Biden, whatever, you know, I have my personal feelings, happy to share them with people.

4:03But the president got pounded, President Biden got pounded tonight. Okay, I got my suit on, Caddy, because I'm at a wake right now and I'm a good Catholic and good Catholics show up respectfully when they're waking somebody. You and Joe Biden, both good Catholics. Look, I think, let's talk about optics and the way this looked, because a lot of people are not going to watch this debate the whole way through. I know that there was an opinion poll just before the debate saying that seven in 10 people who intended to vote were gonna watch the debate. So the ratings could have been very high. We won't have them by the time we finish this podcast.

4:39But for people who are only gonna see the clips and see this as a visual thing rather than listening to every policy detail, this looked terrible for Joe Biden. Just the camera shots of Joe Biden standing there with his mouth open while Donald Trump was speaking, he looked old. He looked old and kind of out of it. I was watching the debate with a couple of young people in their 20s, my son and his girlfriend, and they just found it excruciating, the whole thing. They said they look older than my grand. He looks older than my grandparents. On top of the way he looked was the fact that his voice was hoarse.

5:17I don't know if he has a cold or something, but it was hard to hear very well what he was saying. And his answers weren't particularly coherent. I mean, I tried to follow Joe Biden's answers. There was actually quite a lot of policy in this debate. But you couldn't really make out what he was saying because the combination of his voice being quite weak and the way he spoke, he would start an answer and then segue into something else and then get lost in the sentence. And I think before we go much further, Anthony, we have to talk about that moment early on in the debate that is going to get replayed and replayed and replayed on social media, where Joe Biden was giving an answer on COVID.

6:00And then he just lost his train of thought and didn't exactly freeze Mitch McConnell style, but he looked really bad. I mean, he just he just he's just sort of lost his. I don't know how else to say it. He didn't really stumble. He lost his train of thought. That was the Joe Biden look with the open mouth. I don't know who's handling Joe Biden, but a couple of things. If your candidate is hoarse, leak it before the debate. If your candidate has a cold, he has a sore throat, he can't speak properly. You got to leak that before the debate so you can set expectations. Number two, if you're going to a split screen, whoever agreed to the split screen on the Biden side should probably leave the campaign at this point.

6:42But if you're going to a split screen, Mr. President, sir, you got to be prepared for people staring at you while the other candidate is there. When you have your mouth open like this, this is a very bad look. And I don't want to say anything that's ageist. I don't want to say I'm just telling you the imagery of this is very, very bad. And let's face it, Caddy, you and I both spent a lot of time on television, hair and makeup works on TV, hair dye works on TV. Donald Trump came, hair dyed, made up, and he was energized. And the president looked 15 years older than Donald Trump tonight. And that matters on television.

7:26I'm sorry to say this to the people that like Joe Biden. Obviously, I respect Joe Biden. I respect his service, but I don't understand why the Democrats are stuck here at this moment. They could put up a Whitmer. They could put up a Shapiro from Pennsylvania. I could name five or six people that could get in here right now. Gina Raimondo. Okay. Any of those people are incredibly skilled politicians and they could school Donald Trump because by the way, I couldn't keep up with the Trump lies. Couldn't keep up with them. He told 30 ,000. And it wasn't being fact-checked. And you didn't have moderators who were saying you didn't answer the question.

8:05That is not what happened. This is not true. I wrote down all the lies. I couldn't keep up with the lies. And by the way, Gina Raimondo would say, okay, well, that's a lie. And by the way, he told 30 ,450 lies. No, Joe Biden did keep saying you're lying. No one lies as much. But then you have to back it up. Then you have to say, this is the fact. You can't just say, oh, you're lying or you're a whiner. You got to say, hey, you're lying. You're saying this, but this is the truth. It was almost like he was falling back on, you're lying, you're such a big liar, when he didn't know what else to say.

8:37I mean, it came across as a slight crutch during the course of the debate. We should talk about Donald Trump because there was a lot of expectations about whether we would have the Donald Trump who showed up from the first 2020 debate, who came in kind of hot and crazy. And whether it was this format worked really well for Donald Trump because it cut his microphone. He couldn't interrupt the whole time. He didn't come across as a bully. I had Trump people texting me within minutes of this debate. First of all, after that kind of brain freeze, lost his way moment, saying, right, Joe Biden's lost it, but also saying Donald Trump is calm.

9:12He comes across as presidential. And because there's no fact checking in real time, the audience isn't going to know whether half of what he's saying is true or false. And actually, by the way, there were things that Joe Biden should have been called up on too, but the audience isn't going to know that. All they heard was that Donald Trump spoke with a strong voice, which made a huge difference. He spoke in coherent sentences. As my son said at one point, look, we're all talking to each other in the room when Joe Biden is talking because we can't follow what he's saying and he sounds quiet and distant.

9:44But when Donald Trump is talking, we all shut up and listen. So every debate has a line. President Reagan said, there you go again. And then with Mondale, he said, let's not use age in this debate. I don't want to challenge my candidate's youth and inexperience. There are killer lines or, you know, Dan Quayle, you're no Jack Kennedy. I know Jack Kennedy. The killer line tonight was I don't understand what he just said. And I don't think he understands what he just said. That was a killer line. Now, I got to the slightly rambling, securitist way. I mean, maybe Joe Biden's just been in the Senate too long.

10:23And that's how senators speak. I want to be fair to Joe Biden. He got better. But let me tell you something about American politics and American television. If you're in the Super Bowl and Pat Mahomes goes up 38 to zero and you're in the first quarter, you're shutting the TV off before the half. I mean, unless, you know, you want to watch J-Lo or something like that for the halftime concert. But but I'm telling you, I believe that these ratings went down over the course of the debate. People like you and I stayed on because we're political aficionados. But I think the American people are like, OK, this guy's getting destroyed here.

10:57It's not even a fight. This is like Rocky, you know, Apollo Creed with Drago and Rocky IV. Throw the towel in. The guy got wiped out and they shut the TV off. Why are you laughing? I love that you're bringing the boxing analogies. It was like watching a senior citizen. You texted me, Anthony, during it saying this is a 15-round fight and it's been a knockout at the third round. I have no idea. I'm just saying it was like watching a senior citizen's MMA fight and you're like, you've got to be kidding me. Whoever can miss the fight, what are you doing? What are you doing? The bits that will get replayed, we've gone through a couple of them.

11:40It'll be the brain freeze moment where he kind of loses his way and ends up, he was talking about COVID and then suddenly he talks about Medicare or something. And then it'll be that bit, Donald Trump saying, I don't know, I have no idea what he was just saying and I don't think he did either. But there was one other line, I'm surprised you haven't brought this up, where Trump says, I didn't have sex with a porn star. It's not a line you often get in American presidential debates. Well, somebody's bringing up in the comments, God bless whoever brought this up in the comments, I'm touching wood wherever you have wood.

12:10Okay, so, I mean, that is something I said, And I think in the fourth grade. OK. And so and then Trump projecting, he turns the bites. Let's not act like children. Yeah. But I didn't bang the porn star and I'm touching wood wherever there is wood. And let me tell you something. OK, he is an entertaining SOB, whether you like him or dislike him. And this is theater. This is a popularity contest. It's not a hiring decision for the American people. all. And, you know, the question now, and I want to throw this back to you, Katty Kay, because you live in Washington, there's going to be a bee swarm or shark infestation at the White House tomorrow.

12:50Joe Biden dropped out of the race. What do you think happens? Look, I think you're right. What is it? The Democrats always like to say the bedwetting begins tomorrow. I mean, it's beginning tonight. You look through your Twitter feed and there are influential Biden supporters in the media who are calling for Joe Biden to step down. And for one of the people you mentioned, Gavin Newsom, Meg Whitmer, Gina Raimondo, it's very, very late in the race for that to happen. It could theoretically be done if Joe Biden woke up tomorrow morning and reflected on this performance and said, look, the American people's concerns about my age are legitimate.

13:30And I just couldn't handle that debate. And that was a terrible performance. I am going to step down. In theory, you could have another Democrat step into the race. I don't know how you would do it, whether they would all jump in and you'd have a very, very short. The primaries are over, so it would have to be done at the convention. But I have never heard from the Biden campaign, not once, that this is something that he is considering doing. Up until tonight, this is America's choice. This is what America has to choose between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. I'm sitting here. I'm flummoxed by what just happened.

14:07Like he had a week to prepare. He's at Camp David. They've got the guy that played Donald Trump in 2020. You know, Andrew Yang, who ran for president in 2020, said he debated Joe Biden seven times on stage in 2020. This is not the Joe Biden of 2020. And so then the question is, guys, what is Joe Biden going to be like in 2025, 26, 27, 28? What are you guys doing? Okay. I was willing to give the president the benefit of the doubt. As I've said, some things have gone well for him. He's done things generally well. And I do think he will protect the system and the democracy. But if you're not up to face Donald Trump and you're not up to face somebody that was being accused of being a part of the insurrection.

14:57Forget about the 34 felonies. As you know, I think that's a joker case, but you have a documents case, you have an election fraud case. If you can't face this guy and you can't verbally jujitsu this guy and hit him a few times, and you're sitting there misremembering your lines, someone's got to tell you the truth. I know he's the president. I think he knew how badly he did. After that moment where his brain froze and he lost his train of thought. You could tell in his face, don't you think that he knew that that was, had been a really bad moment. And then he came back from the break and he seemed nervous.

15:33Um, that we're getting a lot of questions about whether Joe Biden is now going to step down. Can I just say, can I just say one thing though? Donald Trump would be masterful tomorrow morning if he gets to a podium in a compassionate way, says, Hey, I debated Joe Biden last night. He He has served the country for 50 years. I think it's pretty evident that he's not the right guy to serve the country for the next four years. But I'm a compassionate person. Yeah. You see what I mean? And I'm a patriot. And I'm a patriot and I want the best for the president and I want the best for the White House in the country.

16:08Why don't you pick some of these comments? Yeah, there's some really good ones here. So Leo Fordham has written in, do you think it's too late for the Democrats, even if they do replace Biden? I feel like it could be really hard to overcome the feeling brought on by him, no matter who may step in. I think that's such a I mean, that's a very smart take on this, because has Biden tainted the Democrat? Look, this is a hypothetical. I don't even if I had to put my money somewhere and Anthony's fortune is enormously superior to mine. If I was actually less I'm going to bet Anthony's fortune on this because that's a much more exciting bet.

16:42If I was going to bet Anthony's fortune on this, I would bet that Joe Biden does not step down. But if he did step down, do we think that actually now the rest of the Democratic Party is just being tainted by this experience? How do they come back from this? I want to stay for the record that Caddy Kay has more Prada than I have. OK, I just want to make everybody show. Everybody knows that. OK, I don't have any more secrets about my God. That's it, Anthony. You are outside my shopping secret circle now. That's it. You've blown it. Look, you've made me blush. I'm glad I made you blush after you're trying to disclose my net worth on live YouTube.

17:20That is the first and only time I've ever shopped in that store. And if I ever shop there again, I'm not telling you. I tell you. Don't feel bad about it. I probably have to get you a product gift certificate at this point. But here's the thing I would say about that statement. I think that that is true, but I would still throw the Hail Mary. They had these superdelegates. They could get them to drop out. They could have a superdelegate meeting before the convention, and then they could say, here's the guys we're going with. And then they got us consolidated and they got to unify. there's only one person in America that could tell Kamala Harris to step out of that ticket.

17:56I believe that's Barack Obama. I think she's got to get promised a Supreme Court justice appointment to do that. The rumor was that they offered her the last one. She said no to that one. But I think at this point, it would be good for the country for her to do that. They go with two younger people. Maybe it's a Raimondo and a Shapiro, a Whitman, with marina shapiro i don't know but they could okay people are mentioning gavin newsom whether you like gavin newsom you like what he's done in california or not he would have wiped the floor with donald trump tonight he he would have been on point he crushed ron de santis on fox news a couple of months ago he would have been on point he would have been in control of the facts and he would have crushed uh donald trump tonight josh shapiro would have done the same he's an excellent debater.

18:45He's so smart. He's the next generation, you know, the governor of Pennsylvania. I think, I mean, I had a really interesting conversation with a Democrat about two days ago who was saying, look, there's these whispers going around that actually, I mean, this may be them trying to console themselves, that if Trump wins in November, maybe that's not so bad for the party because they will, the Democrats will do really well in the midterms and then it sets them up for 28 with this whole next generation. I think that's pulling at straws. Katie, I'm just telling you, if I was debating you, I'd bring up one thing.

19:17Prada, you go bright red. I mean, I got to I got to prepare you better. OK, I'm going to handle you. I'm going to handle you. We have to debate each other. OK, listen, but cone of secrecy here. You have lost my trust. OK, so let's get another couple of questions. How do you turn it around? OK, how do you turn it around? That's a great question by John O 'Hara. Yeah. The problem is that Democrats have come out over the last six months and said, we recognize he's old, but I tell you that when he's not got the cameras on him, when I'm with him in the Oval Office, he's super sharp and he's on it. And that is the Joe Biden who is leading the country.

19:54Well, now the country feels they've seen Joe Biden without a prompter in front of them, like he had at the State of the Union. And they're just not going to believe those Democrats anymore. So I think there has to be some candor. I think you're right. They've got to come out and say the president, you know, felt that really didn't represent, you know, his best effort of running the country, but this is all the things he's done for America. And he's, you know, the debate format didn't work for him. You know, he's got this stutter that he's overcoming. I'd get the surrogates out there. I don't know that I'd get Joe Biden out there saying that was a fuck up.

20:27I would get surrogates out there a lot saying the two minutes is very hard for somebody with a stutter, but he's running the country. They just have to keep going, litigating his record. And we keep hearing that the Biden campaign team is the best in the business, that Jen O'Malley Dillon is fantastic. This is what I hear time and again. The people around him in Delaware are really good. And that's why they're so confident. They've got this. They know what they're doing. They're building this machine. We've spoken about this on the podcast, Anthony. They've got these offices around the country.

20:57They've hired people around the country. They've got a really good campaign machine. After seeing tonight's debate, I don't know that I trust that narrative. If that's what they are producing after a week of prep, how good are they at everything else? I mean, I don't know. Why should I believe that this machine they're building around the country is so great if they can't get through a live debate? One of the comments is, will there be a 25th Amendment vote at the House? I don't remember the procedures exactly, but you've got to get the cabinet involved. So you've got to get the cabinet to say the president's incompetent, and then they push the vote to the floor.

21:34I don't think you're going to get the cabinet of Joe Biden to do that. But I think people are saying that to me all night in the text. I have a question for you, Katty K. Go on. September 10th. I don't think it happens at this point. How could it happen? How can it happen? How could it happen? The second debate. I mean, how can the – I mean, but on the other hand, if they don't do it, that's an admission of how badly he did. You know, Carl, I could just let you know, Carl Weathers, who played Apollo Creed, when you knock him through the ropes like that, he can't come back and fight again, right?

22:03Yeah, I know what you're talking about, but I'm sure that's a sporting reference right over my head. It's Rocky IV. It's Rocky IV. It's my vintage. I was 21 when the movie came out. Okay, why was more not done by the moderators to fact check? Zach Taylor, that's a good question. So I don't think they had the time to do that. And I think they made a decision not to do that because they were on a shot clock. Two minutes over here, two minutes over there. and I think that one of the big things about doing it at CNN is that CNN is perceived to be anti-Trump and so I don't think they could have done that.

22:39I think it would have played very bad for the moderators and very bad for CNN and there's something about Donald Trump that we all have to accept. He can say two contradictory things at the same time and he gets away with it. Why does he do that? I don't know. He's born on June 14th. He's a Gemini. Maybe there are two people trapped inside of one body. And so we let them do it. But other people couldn't do that. John Kerry was for the war before he was against it. We went after him. We're throwing haymakers at him. I remember that. Donald Trump can say anything. I love crypto. I hate crypto. Last night I woke up and decided to hate it again.

23:16It's good. Whatever you want to say. Actually, you know what he did that was smart tonight? Donald Trump. He went in with one message and that was about immigration and almost every answer, whether it was about the economy, whether it was about climate, whether it was about healthcare, whether it was about inflation, he brought it back time and again to immigration. He kept talking, whether it was about African American voters, he would talk about black jobs. The immigrants have come in and taken black jobs around the country. It's the kind of thing Joe Biden would never say and probably wouldn't get away with, but he did, he managed to stay on message.

23:49I was taking my luggage off the luggage track this morning. I took a red eye from LA Delta flight. There was an African-American. It was first class. Don't start. I was in first class. Okay. And there was an African-American guy next to me. He looks at me. I'm taking my luggage off. He goes, Mooch. I said, yes. He says, you're the man. He goes, are you going to vote for Trump? Just let me know. Are you voting for Trump? I said, no, you know, I'm not voting for Trump. If you know who I am, you know, I'm not voting for Trump. He says to me, I'm voting for Trump and you're voting for Trump. I said, yeah he goes by the way whether or not you think the country's racist you think trump's racist it doesn't matter to me what's going on now at the border is nothing that anybody can tolerate i'm voting for trump yeah and that hey look that's a sample i'm getting my luggage yeah i'm just making it resonates when he said that you know immigrants are coming in and taking black jobs i mean literally call them black jobs but it's like that resonates around the country okay wait a second lisa's much smarter than I am and quicker on the draw because she says, as a press guy, I want to ask Anthony, how do you spin Biden's performance?

24:51Go on, let me throw it back to you. I would say that the president was not well tonight. He had a cough. We should have told people that. We didn't tell him that. He was right about a lot of his facts, but he was slow-footed on responding to Donald Trump's lies tonight. But if you check, I think we have to re-litigate Mr. Trump's record versus Mr. Biden's record. But let's face it, President Biden did not have a great night tonight. He wasn't feeling well. And by the way, there's nobody in American politics that would do that. He would score points if he did that. But these guys can never admit weakness.