116. Government Collapse: Why Trump Will Win This

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1:22Welcome to The Rest is Politics US. I'm Katty Kay in Washington. Where are you, Anthony? That's me, Anthony Scaramucci, in the heart of downtown Manhattan and here in New York City. Are you not in London on stage? No, Caddy. I made it back safely from London. Did you have a nice time in London on stage? Caddy, I feel like I'm getting painted into the corner because I was out with Emily Maitlis. You were out with Emily Maitlis, as in going out with Emily Maitlis. Oh, my God. Yeah, I mean, I did a speech with her. I did a speech with her. No, it's a cardinal goal hanger rule. What is it? Alistair Campbell calls it.

1:59What does he call it? He calls it podultery. Podultery. There we go. Okay, well, it's lovely to have you back. We haven't changed the locks, so that's good. Somehow I feel when I'm on vacation, you're going to end up getting Daniel Craig or somebody to replace me to really hurt my feelings. But go ahead. Go ahead. Okay, quick message to Daniel. Daniel, dear. Should you ever feel like replacing Anthony Scaramucci, you are welcome. Anytime. him. He doesn't have to be on vacation. We will put him on vacation. Yeah, I'll be permanently on vacation after that replacement. The only condition is that it's all done in studio together.

2:35Huge Daniel Craig fan. Yeah. Oh, my God. OK. OK. James Bond would not have let the government collapse and the U.S. government shut down. We are in day two of the American government being shut for business. Thousands of federal workers are either being furloughed, which means they've kind of been laid off for the moment. They should get back pay and they will come back again. But there's a big question mark about that. They're working without pay anyway. They could also be fired. That's another option. We're going to talk about that. But it's OK because what we lack for in governance in America, we make up for in ultra male warriors with no beards and great bodies.

3:15So we're also going to talk about that. First of all, though, let's quickly catch you up on where we are on this government shutdown. We're on day two and we are in a position where both sides, the Democrats and the Republicans, are trying to see how they can make political gain out of this. And both sides are trying to blame the other side for being responsible for the fact that federal workers aren't going to work. And things like, so what does it mean? It means things like post office aren't working, national parks might be shut. It might be slower to get through airports because some of the security workers are not working.

3:51People are not going into the Environmental Protection Agency. They're not going into the Department of Defense. They're not going into the Department of Education in the numbers we would expect them to do. So everything kind of grinds to a halt here. And both sides hope that they can make political gain out of this. And the Republicans argument that they are honing in on in the last kind of 24 hours, Anthony, seems to be that the Democrats are at fault for shutting down the government because they would not agree to a budget that includes cuts of health care funding to people who are in the country illegally.

4:30And they are honing in on this idea that the Democrats are shutting down your government because they want to give health care to undocumented people in the country. And the Democrats are pushing back and saying, hold on a second. It's more complicated than that. But my feeling slightly is that that more complicated message is getting a little bit lost. What are you what are you thinking? Well, let's go to the argument. So what's true and what isn't? Is it true? So it's not true that all people who are in the country who have not got documented status can get access to health care. In fact, if you are in the country illegally, you do not have access to Medicaid, which is the health care system for the poorest Americans.

5:10But there are some caveats. If you are in the country seeking asylum and you are allowed to be here while your asylum claim, for example, is being processed, then you can access health care. In the past, you could access health care. If you are a dreamer, the child of somebody who was brought to America by undocumented parents, but was brought here as a child and has lived here your whole life, you can also, under the old system, have health care. And what the Republicans have done in their last budget is they've stripped away those kind of caveats, if you like. They've made it so that anyone who's in the country, unless you have a green card, you're not allowed to access Medicaid.

5:49And the Democrats are saying, hold on a second, that's unfair because you've got people here who are in the system. The government knows they're in the system. They're waiting for their green cards or they're waiting to be approved for asylum and they should be allowed to have access to health care. So that's the reality of the situation. Of course, the Republicans are just saying, globbing on to the idea of illegal immigrants getting health care. They're spinning this in a way that is is not true. No, but there is a kind of obviously a more complicated picture than the one they're painting. So let me let me tell you why they are both wrong, if you don't mind me being so blunt about it.

6:27In the United States, since 1986, if you are here in the United States and you walk into an emergency room, you could be an American citizen, a non-American citizen, someone seeking asylum, an illegal alien in the United States. It does not matter. There is a fiduciary responsibility for the emergency medical staff to tend to your care. It could be a sore throat, a broken leg, a heart attack. It actually doesn't matter. You've got to go there. It's the most crazy expensive way to treat, by the way, a sore throat. But anyway. It is, Caddy. But when you've got a 12-month-old baby, you have no access to medical care.

7:11The mom is going to walk into the emergency room and a$75 doctor visit is going to be$1 ,075. As would you and I. But I'm making the point that they're both wrong, that the Mitt Romney point and the Barack Obama point is the most salient, most common sense point, put the umbrella in place to cover the most amount of people in order to protect the system and in order to allocate the capital in the system in a way that's going to be the most propitious and efficient way to allocate the capital. So this is a war of words, but what is happening here is they want to dismantle Obamacare. They don't want to tell you that, but the Republicans, they tried in 2017, let's dismantle Obamacare.

8:02Look at me, look at me, thumb down. John McCain said no. Now they're like, we're not going to mention that we're dismantling Obamacare, but we're going to dismantle Obamacare. And this is how we're going to do it. But I'm going to make the point and love to hear what you think about it is, what the hell are the Democrats doing? Because hello, hello. Let me hear. Can you hear me? What are you doing? Go to the podium and explain to the American people what is going on. But they can't do that, Caddy, because they're shooting at each other and they still haven't been able to figure out Trump. Because when you put the 2028 hats in front of Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Schumer and you take the trolling picture, you're supposed to chattel Mark Carney and get your ass up out of the seat and say, I'm very, very sorry.

8:55I'm not going to sit with you with these hats here. You're a non-serious person and a very serious job. will adjourn the meeting until we're going to have the meeting in a professional way, not a reality television trolling production. OK, what say you? A couple of quick things, one on the health care and one on the politics. The one on the health care is that although you're right, any American can walk into an emergency room and get treated and no emergency room is going to let them die on the emergency room floor because they don't have insurance. what those people had before that they don't have now under Medicaid was if I was in the country waiting for my and I'd been told, yes, you've been cleared, but you're waiting for your green card.

9:39I'm a young Afghan woman. I came over in the exodus. I know a young Afghan woman who's exactly in this position. She was been living with our family for three years. She's been cleared. She's been told she can stay. She's waiting for her green card interview. She's exactly in this position, Zainab has access to Medicaid. She can go for a regular yearly OBGYN checkup. She can go to the dentist. She can go to a doctor's office to get her checkups to get what she needs. She can't get that anymore under the Republican proposal. And that's what the Democrats are fighting against. I think what they need to do politically is take a story like that, right?

10:19Or take a dreamer, a young person who's been living in the country and say, is this what you want? Is this what Americans want? Do they want these people not to be able to go to have their checkup? And do they want them ending up in the emergency room, which is going to cost an awful lot more? But I keep listening to the Democrats messaging. And because it is a complicated issue, they've got caught up in the details of it, in the slight policy details of it, and they're not hammering. and I think this is what if I was a democratic strategist, I'd be advising them, you hammer home, Donald Trump is hurting you.

10:54Job numbers are down. Grocery prices have not come down. They are still high. There is a lot of chaos. There is a lot of insecurity. Jobs are being lost. Donald Trump is hurting you. This is Donald Trump's shutdown that is hurting you. I was speaking to a democratic strategist yesterday and to a Republican strategist this morning. And they're both saying the same thing, which is that Democrats are losing an argument that actually should be winnable for them. But somehow, neither Chuck Schumer nor Hakeem Jeffries in the House, the leader of the Democrats in the House, is managing to make the argument clear.

11:31And maybe it's because, as we've just described, it is a kind of a complicated argument. Healthcare is a complicated policy issue. But maybe they just need to be very bold and blazoned in the way that the Republicans are being bold and blazoned and say, Donald Trump is hurting you. Donald Trump is shutting down the government. Donald Trump is shutting down the government. And by the way, there is polling in the Washington Post this morning that makes people think that is who is shutting down the government. But my question to you is, how long does the polling that suggests that the Democrats are on the right side of this and more people blame Donald Trump and the Republicans than blame the Democrats.

12:06If this goes on and people start being fired and people start having their services taken away, at what point does the public opinion switch against the Democrats? Well, I mean, there's a lot there. So I'll say that. Is that your very polite way of saying I went on a little long? I think it is, isn't it? No, I think it is. There's a lot there. No, there's a lot of sort of code for you could have spoken a bit shorter. It's not fair to me. I'm listening very carefully and I want to go through each of the points. So I just say there's a lot there because I'm thinking I I got my thinking cap on. You got your thinking hat on.

12:36Yes. My thinking cap is on, which is probably why my hair is turning gray. It's burning a lot of fossil fuel in my brain. But anyway, all right. Well, we've sidetracked. But here's the issue. One, I think the Democrats are going to fold. Just believe that because they're going to get eventually tarred for it. It's one thing to, you know, it's like if you're in a fight and you're a kid and you're fighting with your sister. ultimately you may be right in the fight but your mom's going to get upset and eventually bullying both of you and that's what's going to happen with the american people with this and the democrats believe it or not i don't understand why they are but they're in a weaker position than donald trump because they don't understand how to control the narrative the way trump does i do think they'll eventually get in trouble second piece of this is this is the irony here because I always try to call balls and strikes on Trump.

13:29He is less, and I want to repeat this, he is less adamant at relinquishing the healthcare for these people. He is a spending sort of a guy and he doesn't like it. Okay. And so the hard right likes it. And for some reason, and maybe you can explain it to me because I still can't understand it. Why the hard right would like to take 22 million people off the insurance rolls when all that's going to do is increase everybody's insurance premiums and drive the whole health care system up the wall. But for some reason, the hard right wants to do that to these people. Someone will have to explain that to me.

14:04But Trump is not there, Katty. Trump likes spending money. And I've told you this before, and I'll say it again here. Trump has told me, hey, buddy, my base is socially conservative and fiscally liberal. They want the benefits. That was his ultimate genius in 2016. People actually want the social welfare net. They don't want their government programs cut. He does. He once looked at me. He said, yeah, you're a dummy. I said, I know I'm a dummy, but why am I a dummy? He said, well, you're a Wall Street guy. You're socially liberal and you're fiscally conservative. My base is the opposite. it. Yes.

14:43And you don't understand that. Wake up. And so he himself is going to go very frustrated with this. And the last point, economy is not doing well. And I'm going to tell you, Trump is no dummy. He's going to look around and say, wow, the economy is really not doing well. I'm going to get blamed for this. No bueno. That's not good for him. And so this is why the The poly markets have this thing ending, ready for this, in 11 days. Now, I don't know, other things have ended in 11 days, but this is poly markets prediction. So, wow, it's going to last just longer than a Scaramucci. Yes, exactly. So, there you go.

15:22I mean, I think this is over in 11 days. You and I will be on to something else. And then the question is 11 days and does ultimately, does it hurt or hinder the Democrats or the Republicans? Probably by the time we get to the midterms, nobody remembers because, as we know on this program, a gazillion things happen every week and people's attention span is short and they will have moved on. Unless during that 11 days, Russ Vought, who runs the OMB, who is the architect of Project 2025, manages to use this government shutdown to fire another 100 ,000 federal workers permanently, in which case, obviously, those poor people will be looking for jobs.

16:00Can I ask you a question? Given that, and I think it's so smart, Anthony, what you just reminded us of. Basically, Trump has realized that Republican voters, particularly Republican working class voters, are not like establishment deficit hawks and they don't want to have their social services cut. So why is he listening to Russ Vought on this? Why is he allowing Russ Vought to do this? Why is he allowing the hawks in his White House to put the Republicans in a position where they could go into the midterm elections next year with a whole load of people thrown off Medicaid? I don't see how that makes sense to me.

16:39I'm going to answer the question because he is a great culture warrior. They've sat him down and they said, listen, you're the alpha male. You know, Jane Goodall said that he was the primary ape, you know, banging his chest and running up and down the mountain, playing king of the mountain. And they're saying that you are going to win. The Schumers and the Hakeem Jeffries are going to fold. And this will be another big notch in your rifle in the culture war. And so Trump says, yeah, I want that. And then the second thing they're saying to Trump is that this is going to be really good for our base as we go to them and tell them that we're getting rid of all of this dentritis and sclerosis in the American government.

17:23And Trump's saying, yeah, I want that. So now you know this and I know this. The Democrats are saying we're going to hold the line on this. We're principled. We don't want Obamacare to end. But they're going to get nervous, Caddy. They're going to get nervous because they don't want to go into the midterms with what happens to you and your sister when you're fighting and your mother gets mad at both of you. And that's what's going to happen to these people. So they're all going to fold and Trump's going to win this. I'm sorry to tell people this, but Trump's going to win this in the following way.

17:56He's going to compromise and maybe 22 million people won't be off the Medicare, but maybe 10 million will be or 12 million and Trump will declare conservative victory. But my question, and someone please help me with this, is why, Katty? What is the bee in the bonnet of the hard right to want to hurt the underprivileged like this? That is something I cannot understand for the life of me. It doesn't even make economic sense to do it. Plus, if you end up treating people in emergency rooms, it costs a lot. America's health care bill goes up. That explodes the deficit even further, puts more pressure on America's fiscal situation.

18:40I mean, none of that in the end is good. It's a short term victory. Politics is very short term at the moment. There's no real long term thinking. And maybe they're right. You know, Trump likes to say that he wants to win every day's news cycle. He doesn't care about next month's news cycle or six months news cycle. He just wants to win today's news cycle. And if, as you say, he manages to walk away from this, painting it as a victory, whatever happens, my prediction is he paints it as a victory. And his base probably believes him because they see the news outlets that he wants them to see. Then then it will have been worth it for him.

19:16And he likes the fight. Trump does better when he has an adversary. I've noticed that recently when he went through a period about a month or two ago where he wasn't fighting anybody and he was kind of lackluster. So he needs a fight. He likes fighting. This gives him a fight. I think you're right. The longest shutdown in American history was actually back in 2018, and that was 35 days. I think this is probably going to be a couple of weeks. And then we'll see whether Russ Vought manages to enact the kind of things that he wanted to enact. The kind of Machiavellian theory is that this was all part of a plan.

19:49Russ Vought spent those four years with Stephen Miller out of office. They came up with a plan, including a plan in which they would manage to fire hundreds of thousands of federal workers. And they realized they could do that during a government shutdown. And they realized they could push Democrats to a position of getting them to a government shutdown. One question I have for you is how long does Chuck Schumer last after this? because I heard something interesting yesterday from a democratic strategist, which is that there's a lot of speculation that Chuck Schumer doesn't make it much beyond the midterms as leader.

20:19He's up for re-election in 2028. The chances are he gets challenged by AOC. He does represent the kind of older brand of the Democratic Party. He's not on the hard left. And you've got these figures like AOC and Mamdani who are itching to take control from these older guys. And if this government shutdown process is seen as not playing out well for the Democrats, I think the pressure will be on Chuck Schumer and his leadership role. So let's see how long it lasts. If he isn't leader, by the way, the name to watch is Brian Schatz, who is the senator from Hawaii is what I'm being told, who is kind of positioning himself at the moment.

20:55Listen, I mean, who's ever going to be the leader? I mean, the bloom is off the Chuck Schumer rose. Yes. And he's lost the plot here. I never really saw Chuck Schumer as a rose. I'm going to have to say he doesn't give me rose vibes. That was a bad metaphor. Okay. All right. All right. I got to regroup here. We're going to take a break. We're going to take a break. Rocky Balboa is going back into his corner. He's going to regroup here. He's going to do some push-ups, shave off his beard, and get ready for the War on Woke. We'll be back in a second.

21:31Welcome back to The Rest is Politics US. We didn't have a chance in our last episode to talk about the absolutely fantastic meeting at Marine Corps Base Quantico, Virginia, where the Secretary of War, Peter Hegseth, summoned some 800 generals from their positions around the country and around the world. They all had to fly in two, three, four star generals sat in this huge Marine Corps base for a rousing speech by the Secretary of Defense. And then another rousing speech by the president, which they applauded wildly with enthusiasm because they loved what they were hearing so much. And it had been a huge mystery.

22:14That, by the way, was a joke. They didn't applaud at all. They sat they're stone-faced. And it was a little bit of a mystery as to why this meeting was being called. Was there a major change in American strategic policy? Were we changing our approach to Taiwan and China? Was something happening with Ukraine? Was there a new offensive on cyber issues? Was the kind of defense strategic initiative going to come up with something radical and different? And was it all of such a nature that you really needed to have all of these generals in the same room. And what was the answer, Anthony, to why these generals were summoned from their forward bases around the world to come back to Virginia?

22:52A culture war. We're fighting a culture war. It's culture war two. Culture war one was a medium war, didn't go full kinetic. But me and Pete Hegseth are now fighting culture war two. And we're going to bring all of you guys in and we're going to tell you you're lazy and fat, which is just unbelievable because, you know, Trump has the pot belly of pot bellies. But the one thing that Trump did, which I just want to point out to everybody, because I know the SOB and I know how he projects. So let me tell you what Trump did. Okay. And you'll, and you'll, you'll appreciate this, Caddy. He knows he's out of shape.

23:28He knows he's getting old. He's giving this rambling 45 minute speech and he pops in on Barack Obama and he says about Barack Obama, he's I dislike the guy, I have no respect for him. But man, he rumbled down the steps and it was such projection. Okay, you're laughing, but Trump is signaling to the generals, guys, I'm fat and old. I'm an aging queen wearing orange makeup. And I'm going to be up here lecturing you about getting into shape. And so it was just beautiful for me because I know Trump's complex personality and he was literally projecting the hypocrisy with the outtake on Barack Obama.

24:17So that's number one. Number two, Pete Hexeth, who is in good shape, by the way, and I admire that about Pete Hexeth, But there's very few other things to admire about him because his intellectual depth is less than a half an inch in terms of the lake that he's swimming in. And the other issue for Pete Hegseth, and this is the big one, is he reeks of insecurity. When you look at him and you look at his public speaking style and you look at his mannerisms and his gesticulations, he lacks knowledge of what he's doing and he's wildly over his skis. And so those poor guys sitting there, mostly guys, some women, are looking around saying, do I call this out and get fired and lose my pension?

25:02Or do I keep my mouth shut and ride this thing out and go back to my post? But I'll tell you, it was a terrible day for the American military. I felt very bad for them. And the last point of you polled those generals and you said, who among you likes the name change from the Department of Defense to the Department of War? I'm telling you, you're going to go 99 to 1. 99 % of them would be, no, I don't like that because that's not our culture. And that's not how we've represented our people, the people of the United States and the defense forces of the American military. That's not how we represented them to the rest of the world.

25:47So a disaster to me, but a victory for Donald Trump and Pete Hexer. They got on the phone with each other and said, oh, Pete, yes, Mr. Brown. That was fantastic. We're winning the culture war. Orange makeup, girdle. Could you pass me the orange makeup and the girdle? Pete, we're doing so well here. I mean, and that's what happened. One thing, I don't know, because I was joking when I said at the beginning there was applause. It really, watch the video. They sit there in total professional, by the way, stony silence, because these are senior figures in the U.S. military who are not meant to show or reveal their political allegiance, who are not there having sworn an allegiance to Donald Trump.