128. Trump vs Congress: Who Really Won the Shutdown?

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2:28Welcome to The Rest is Politics US with me, Katty Kay, in London, right next to... Anthony Scaramucci. We're back in London at the Rosewood Chancery for another conference. Are you advertising the Rosewood Chancery now? They've given you a special upgrade or something. I like them. They did a good job last week. They did a very good job. But you know who's not doing a good job, Katty, is the U.S. Congress and the American president. The government is still closed, but we think it's going to open this week, right? So we are recording this on Tuesday in London. and all the signs are, Anthony, that if you are listening to this on Wednesday, that is D-Day when the government gets reopened.

3:06All of this still holds because we know the parameters. We're going to talk about that and what the Democrats did or didn't do to get there, why they made the decision that they did. And then in the second half of the show, we're going to talk about the fight within MAGA because this is kind of blowing up on the right of the MAGA movement. There is this big fight between Nick Fuentes and Tucker Carlson on one side and Ben Shapiro on the other. I thought it was worth talking about because MAGA is always presented as this kind of monolith, but actually there's a lot of... There's a schism. There's a bit of a schism going on, and you have views on that.

3:39So we're going to talk about that. But talking about the government shutdown, okay, this is when I realized that they were going to fold the Democrats and vote to reopen the government. On Sunday, I started looking at tickets for Thanksgiving, and my son has a ticket, an airline ticket, to come down to visit us from Maine. We bought his ticket a while ago from Portland to Washington, D.C. And I had this sudden panic that all of the planes wouldn't be running because the transport secretary said the planes are going to go to a trickle. It's going to be a nightmare. No one's going to be able to travel over Thanksgiving.

4:10So I went online and I booked Jude a train ticket. The train ticket cost$900. Terrible. It was the last train seat I could get. And that's what made me think, you know what? The American people are not going to tolerate this over Thanksgiving, and there is going to be so much pressure on Democrats to agree to reopen the government. Oh, I think you're right. But who won the shutdown? Politically, who won the shutdown? Yeah. Okay, I'm actually going to say the Democrats won the shutdown, even though they capitulated and even though the progressive wing of the Democratic Party is super exercised about this and feel they caved after those great election results for them on Tuesday last week.

4:51They had the momentum and the progressives and the younger Democrats are saying, you know, what the heck? Why did we cave? Go back if you don't mind. So they caved because they didn't get any subsidy extension. Because they didn't get a guarantee of having a subsidy extension to make healthcare cheaper for Americans or to keep healthcare prices lower for Americans. They effectively said, okay, we've pushed for that. We spent 40 odd days pushing for that. We didn't get it, but we're going to reopen the government anyway. But this is why I think actually Democrats may have won this, because they have made those health care subsidies and the price of health care a talking point for Americans.

5:28And there's a poll out by Stack, a company I hadn't heard of, who's come out with a very big survey of Americans that shows that 70 % of Americans say they're now concerned about the subsidies ending for healthcare costs. And 50 % of MAGA Republicans, self-described MAGA Republicans, are also worried about the subsidies ending for healthcare. So that, I think, puts health care and the cost of health care right in the front of people's frame of mind. And in that way, the Democrats holding out for 40 days have changed the conversation around health care in America. And, Katty, that also fits the thesis that I've been sharing with people that President Trump sees his base as fiscally liberal.

6:12And so they want the services. They want the governmental subsidies. And so this will be an interesting exchange as they get the government back open to see which way they're going. I think the Democrats actually could have gotten here 15, 20 days ago. So I'm going to actually say that they both lost a little. Just step back for one second and think about this. They shut the government for 11 % of the year. And you know I like the number 11 a lot, actually. It's one of my favorite numbers. They shut it for sort of a Scaramucci. Yeah, a little bit more than a Scaramucci. It was like a Liz Trust shutting, if you will.

6:50But she was 40 days. You're right. Yeah. Liz Trust. We're stretching our metaphors. But anyway, yes. 4.1 Scaramucci's for the prime minister. But let's go back to this. I think that's a loss for both of them. I think ultimately when people go home for Thanksgiving and they talk about their government, I think these people are, we're going to talk about trading stocks and bonds in a second in the Congress. These people are not serving the American interests anymore. And that's going to be the big question leading in which candidates, and this is a Mondomini like sort of a question, because which candidates are going to go into 26 that are going to use this against the incumbents?

7:32They're going to say, look at these mad incumbents. They can't even get the government open. They were in lockdown for 40 days. They can't make an agreement. a republic or a democracy is designed to have consensus and compromise. Look at these people. I just think there's an opening here to finally take on some incumbents based on the narrative that we're seeing. It's interesting that the eight members of the Democratic caucus who voted with Republicans to reopen the government, none of them are up for re-election next year. They're all senators who are either resigning, stepping down, retiring next year, or they're being re-elected in four years' time.

8:09so they don't have to go and face the progressive wing of the party that may be saying hold on a second where's the fight this is being cast my senses as democrats losing this fight because they didn't get the guarantee to extend the health care subsidies and because in the end they were the ones who caved to pressure and they would say well we were just looking out for people who were not going to get their food assistance we were looking out for people who were trying to travel over thanksgiving and weren't going to see their families and so we were looking out for members. But I'm not sure that it's such a loss as that.

8:43I think, first of all, they showed that they did care about people who get food stamps. And they drew a very clear distinction between what the White House was doing, which was pressing the courts not to allow people to have that food assistance. And they're saying, hold on a second, we're actually caring about that. And they drew the contrast as well between Donald Trump, who was having this great Gatsby style party down at mar-a-lago the gilded oval office the brand new ballroom in the white house and they were pointing to all of those things saying hold on a second that is what the president is focused on we're focused on trying to make sure that i think there's some resident i think there's some residents i'm with you i was making a broader statement related to like bipartisan indictment of these people but i but i hear you and the other point being that i mean the rest of the world thinks this is crazy the government can shut down at all it's bonkers it's absurd i mean You talk to international business leaders and they're like - What the heck's going on?

9:41Yeah. It's like astonishing that a country that has this level of GDP and wealth and hundreds of years of success would be running itself like this. It's just astonishing. I want to have a Zoom call. Okay. And we're going to do a little bit of role playing here. Here we go. I'm going to be the president this time. Okay. Okay. Okay. And so I'm going to purse my lips. For those of you listening in on the podcast in your ear there, I'm pursing - Do the hand thing. You're good at that. I'm pursing my lips. I've got the hand movements going with the OK and the L, you know, the reverse L. And you are going to be two people.

10:13Oh, OK. OK, you're going to be Mike Johnson and Cash Patel. So you can give me a blended response. Hello. Is this on? Is this on? Cash, Mike Johnson. Do we have this Epstein thing under control? The government's about to open. And this congresswoman elect from Arizona, she's getting sworn in and we're going to release these files. Also, are we in full redaction mode? Hello, fellows. Are you there? Mr. President, Mr. President, when Congresswoman Adelita Grialva, the congresswoman from Arizona, is actually going to be sworn in. And as the speaker has told you, Mr. President, she will be sworn in very soon, potentially this week.

10:52Then, of course, she will vote to release the Epstein files. And don't worry, Mr. President, we have a very big black Sharpie pen. And we are going through those files and redacting any sensitive information to anybody, Mr. President. So we think we're OK. There's a woman out there, one of the Epstein victims, that is claiming that there are videos of me, which, of course, you know is not true. There's no videos of me. But suppose there is videos of me. Have you got those blown up as well? Mr. President, we heard that mentioned of reports of photographs of you with underage women that were mentioned in the Pam Bondi hearings.

11:30You remember, Mr. President, the attorney general was up in the front of the Senate and one of those perfidious Democratic senators had the audacity, Mr. President, to mention that there may be video or photographic evidence of this. Don't worry, Mr. President, that big black Sharpie is going to redact everything. OK, I mean, you had me perfectly into use the word perfidious because these guys don't know that word. I mean, you know, they do. They don't know what that means. I'm struggling with perfidious. It was a good word. It was a very good word. All right. So nothing's going to happen. So a trip U.S.

12:01prediction, she gets sworn in, show me the Epstein files, and we're going to show the Epstein files, and it's going to be a big nothing, because nothing's going to happen. I think the chances of it being as dramatic as Democrats would like it to be are pretty minimal at this point. I mean, I also think that Donald Trump, given his past history, gets away with an awful lot that most previous presidents would not get away with. I suppose you can go back to Jack Kennedy and he was having loads of affairs and that was in a different time, however. But he gets away with an awful lot in terms of kind of moral probity.

12:37And people have baked that into their voting decisions around him. The key distinction, though, is the Kennedy affairs was not divulged to the public at that time in American history. It was a different time. Exactly. The public may not have tolerated it. The other thing that could happen when the government reopens, and we're going to assume the government, for all intents and purposes, is now reopened. is that there is a bill going forward to ban members of Congress from trading stocks and shares. What's all of that about, Anthony? Why has that become a big deal? Well, there's been a loophole for congressmen and women for, I guess, the last 50 or so years.

13:17And the loophole is, if I've got information inside the Congress, and it's in my personal account, I can trade on that information. And that is a loophole. They're sort of outside the parameter of what's called insider trading. And so just 30 seconds on insider trading. If Katty is an executive inside of a company and she calls me and says, hey, I'm an executive inside of ABC Company and this company is buying XYZ next week. I then cannot use that information in the stock market. If I go to the stock market and buy XYZ and XYZ goes up, you would be in trouble. I would be in trouble. But not the congressman or woman.

13:56So let's say they're working on a bill and it's related to energy legislation or AI and they know that's going to be really beneficial to that sector or to companies specific to the bill. They can go out and buy call options. They can go out and buy stock. The bill gets passed. The stock goes up. Now, of course, Nancy Pelosi has been accused of this and others and AOC. And there's a very strong progressive movement that says this is absurd. It's unfair to the American people and it needs to be banned. When you describe it to me, it does sound unfair to the American people. But let's step back.

14:28What's the defense of members? So in 2011, 60 Minutes did a show on this. Peter Schweitzer wrote a book about this. And there was a four-month period of time where the outrage was palpable. And they voted to ban it. So they actually banned these transactions. And then they did something that the Congress does outside of C-SPAN, outside of the television cameras and so forth. they did a voice vote to reinstate it oh those smoke fill rooms yeah see and so so so it was and you wonder why the american public doesn't trust congress 15 years ago four months they banned it now it's back on and it looks like it could get banned again and i will predict if it does get banned again it'll be a very public we banned it and then it'll be five six months later they'll unban it okay because that's exactly what they did about 15 years ago so So this is the stuff that the American people are like, wow, the system is really rigged.

15:28The system is really unfair. To go back to Epstein for a second, it does appear that Alex Acosta, when he was the former Trump labor secretary, but prior to that, he was a assistant U.S. attorney down in Florida. He cut the deal for Epstein. It does appear that they were trying to protect very high profile people that were involved with Epstein. This all plays into the perception that many ordinary working class Americans and middle class Americans have that they are not getting a fair shake in the system. It's why you've just had Mamdani elected in New York. It's why Graham Plattner, the oyster farmer up in Maine, is doing well, despite some issues around his texting past.

16:15He's still popular up in Maine because people in this environment who can suggest to voters that they will stand up for the average person are going to do well. Whether or not those people actually can stand up for the average person, whether they can deliver on their promises. At the moment, what people want is to know that somebody is fighting for them. And I think in a way, that's where the Democrats are. I think Republican Party understood this 10 years ago, that you had to sound like you were fighting for the average person. It was why Donald Trump was elected in 2016. He got it. He got that this was about the fight.

16:48Democrats, I reckon, are 10 years behind. But this cycle, what we've seen is this same kind of message of we will fight for you. And clearly the Democratic base is, you know, you may or may not be able to deliver on it, but we at least want to know that you are fighting for us. Yes. But I'm going to say something really cynical and really terrible. Because now I'm going to play the average incumbent. All that stuff is great. I'm going to feed through pork. I'm going to feed through subsidies. My district, look at what Rand Paul's doing right now for hemp. He slowed down the process here because he's got hemp farmers in Kentucky and he wants certain things taken out of the continuing resolution to protect those farmers.

17:31And so what I'm going to do is figure out a few things. I'm going to get to the camera and microphone, go back to my district, go back to my constituents, tell them what I did for them. and oh by the way i'm going to get a waterfall of money from big companies and special interests that i'm going to use on the airwaves to denigrate uh the opposition uh disfigure them ad hominem attack them and so guess what's going to happen because 95 of the time it does i stay in power 95 uh chance for a incumbent to get re-elected because the districts aren't competitive the This was not competitive. And by the way, my buddies at the state and local legislatures helped me redistrict to ensure my survival in the Congress.

18:16And so all of that stuff sounds fun and nice. And you left out one other thing, Caddy, is the fragmentation of the media has really allowed me to take advantage of my voters. Because remember, when you're making such a you're making such a great, positive, optimistic case for the American political system today. I'm so reassured and excited. Let me make... Thank God the government is back open so he can get back to doing all these wonderful things for us. Let me make the optimistic case now. When guys like Zoran Mandami show up at the door, you better figure out a way to put together practical reform.

18:56Because if you don't do that, they will win the people. He is a charismatic enough person. He's got a great enough... him you have to come up yes if you're if you're opposing him and you're looking at him saying well wait a minute this has worked great for us this sort of duopoly and these sort of rules and citizens united where i get unlimited money from super rich people and big food and big farmers really working great for us but guess what it's not working for the american people and now we have young politicians that are extremely talented understand social media that are going to expose us.

19:32So if we don't shift and create some type of reform here, we could end up in a situation where we've got the government and policy going in a direction that may not be what we all want. And I think that's coming if they're not careful. Yeah. I mean, I do think one thing that has happened over the course of the last two months is that there has been more focus on this question of affordability. You teased me last week for talking about the K-shaped economy, but actually it could be a k-street economy couldn't it let's face it's full of lobbyists but anyway it's a k-shaped economy and i think that all of the discussions we've had during the election campaigns and during the shutdown have made people more aware in the states of how expensive health care is how expensive rent is how expensive food is and fake news fake prices are going lower right everything is lower everywhere okay actually the grocery budget It's down 25%.

20:31Literally, people are going to the store and the stuff is exploding in price. Walmart is saying they've put out their bundle of Thanksgiving goods and they're saying, look, the price is lower this year. But you know what? Last year's bundle had 21 different items in it. This year's bundle only has 15. The price is a little lower, but you're getting less in your Thanksgiving bundle. That was meant to be an optimistic end to the first half. Sorry. But But hey, I think there is now a new focus. I spoke to a former senator who said to me, no member of Congress is not going to be aware of the cost of health care as they go into the election next year, which is a good thing.

21:07America is paying too much for their health care. OK, we're going to take a break and come back and talk about the splits in MAGA.

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22:28welcome back to the rest is politics us anthony and i both in london it's so nice to be together anthony it's i'm enjoying this it's great to be here uh look i don't know what this is anthony's glass this is my glass that was in the room it is now it's a nine o 'clock i'm having a glass of water martini okay it's there's no there's no alcohol there but if you believe that i have a bridge to sell you. There's no alcohol. And prior to me arriving in the room, there was no air conditioning. For our American listeners out there and my fellow Americans, these people don't believe in ice cubes and they don't believe in air conditioning.

23:02It's mid-November. So there's an SOS coming from this hotel. Mid-November. Who puts air conditioning on in mid-November in London? Okay, we're going to talk about the splintering on the right because something has blown up that you may or may not have picked up on amongst a group of right-wing influencers that you might think, okay, well, this doesn't really matter. This is a small group of people, but actually it's also now filtering down through to the Heritage Foundation, which is the organization, the think tank that was behind Project 2025. A lot of these people are close to the president.

23:35They're close to the vice president. And I think it's worth diving into. I want to say something, get you to react before you get into the specifics. So there's glue for the Republicans. And it's sort of this weird thing, but Donald Trump is the glue for all of these fragmented ideologues. And so they basically looked at each other and say, we generally hate each other. And we generally have opposing views about what Republican orthodoxy should be. But we're going to live in Trump's world of MAGA because he can get all of us to the finish line. and we can get a lot of our policies, Project 2025, et cetera, adopted.

24:17So we're going to use Trump as the vessel. Now, we've been saying on this program that MAGA is splintering because they're looking forward to no Trump, therefore no glue. Okay, so now take over because it's starting to happen. Go ahead. Okay, so all of the jostling that's happening on the right. So this is a story that concerns three different podcasters, influencers, people with millions, literally millions of followers on the right of the MAGA movement, on the right of the conservative movement. And the first character is a guy called Nick Fuentes. You may have heard of Nick Fuentes. He is a self-described white supremacist, white nationalist, Christian nationalist.

24:57He was banned for a period on Twitter, as it was back then. And he said a whole host on his show of things that I think everybody would agree are outrageous and beyond the bounds of normal politics. We're going to play you some clips. It's worth knowing what Nick Fuentes says. A lot of women want to be raped. And when I say raped, I mean like, that sounds bad when I say it like that. But there's like a lot of women that really want a guy to beat the shit out of them who cares you know enough with the Jim Crow stuff who cares oh and a drink out of a different water fountain big fucking deal it is Heil Hitler Friday white people are every single bit justified in being racist so Nick Fuentes then uh has been marginalized in many ways but he still has a million followers on X at the moment.